Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Cubs Could Provide Mariners With Multiple Avenues to Get Better
Episode Date: July 2, 2024The Cubs are reportedly gearing up to sell at the trade deadline later this month and there are quite a few potential fits for the Mariners. Ty and Colby assess the "complicated" venture of targeting ...Cody Bellinger or Ian Happ then discuss the possibilities of Seiya Suzuki, Mike Tauchman, and others.Ask us questions!Follow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @TyDaneGonzalez | @CPat11Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors! Tax Network USA Reduce your tax debt and get help from a team of licensed tax professionals call 1-800-549-1000 or visit TNUSA.com/lockedon. Booking.com The right stay can make you a fan of any US city - even your rival’s. Book today on Booking.com on the site or in the Booking.com app! Booking.com, Booking dot YEAH! LinkedIn Right now, you can try LinkedIn Sales Navigator and get a sixty-day free trial at LinkedIn.com/LOCKEDON. PrizePicks Go to https://prizepicks.onelink.me/LME0/LOCKEDONMLB and use code lockedonmlb for a first deposit match up to $100! SupplyHouse SupplyHouse.com is the reliable way to get parts fast. Shop for your next plumbing, h-vac, or electrical job and get fast shipping from coast to coast. eBay Motors From brakes to exhaust kits and beyond, eBay Motors has over 122 million parts to keep your ride-or-die alive. With all the parts you need at the prices you want, it’s easy to bring home that big win. Keep your ride-or-die alive at EbayMotors.com. Eligible items only. Exclusions apply. eBay Guaranteed Fit only available to US customers. Gametime Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONMLB for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. FanDuel FanDuel, America’s Number One Sportsbook. As playoffs wind down, the sports stop sporting like we want them to. But this summer, FanDuel is hooking up ALL CUSTOMERS with a boost or a bonus, DAILY! That’s right, there’s something for everyone, every day, all summer long! Visit FANDUEL.COM/LOCKEDON and add a big win to your summer bucket list! FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Transcript
Discussion (0)
Yesterday we talked about Nico Horner, but what about some of the other Cubs?
We'll see which ones could fit for the Mariners and more coming up here on the Locked On Marrars podcast.
Colby, hit it.
You are Locked on Mariners.
Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast.
Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day.
Ahoy, sailors.
It is Tuesday, July 2nd, 2024.
This is Tadang Gazzalas and Colby Patnaud for the Lockdown Marriss podcast.
Part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team, every day.
On today's show, we're going to.
talk more about the Cubs who look like they might be gearing up to sell later this month.
We talked about Nico Horner yesterday, but we're going to dive into more of that
roster here in just a moment. We'll also talk about the Marra's upcoming series with the
Baltimore Orioles. But before we do that, shout out to our title sponsor today, Fandul.
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The link is in the description and you can sign up for a free seven-day trial.
So yesterday we talked quite a bit about the Cubs because John Morosi went on MLB Network yesterday
morning and mentioned Nico Horner and that if Horner was available, the mayor's
could be interested.
That was just speculation.
He wasn't reporting anything as we went over.
But he did go on local radio in Chicago yesterday and actually reported something.
This comes from our friends at Locked on Cubs saying John Marosi just reported on 670 the score that the Cubs are signaling to teams that they are open to selling later this month.
No trade talks are imminent, but Cody Bellinger, Ian Hap, and Jameson, are all mentioned as candidates to clear money while refreshing the roster.
first and foremost, let's consider the source here.
I think we all at this point are aware of the shakiness of John Marosi's credibility,
especially over the last year or so.
But looking at the responses to that tweet and just kind of gauge in the feel of Cubs fans
over the last 24 hours or so, I kind of did some digging on that after the,
the Horner thing yesterday.
Seems like Cubs fans feel like this is where things are heading as well.
that the team is going to sell to at least a certain degree at the deadline this month.
So with that in mind, let's talk about Cody Bellinger and Ian Hap first.
I don't think Jamison Tyone is going to generate much interest from the Mariners,
even though they might be in the market for a back-end starter.
But Bellinger and Hap are very interesting, especially in a vacuum if you just eliminate
their contract situations, which obviously you can't.
But those players would be really solid fits for the Marys.
I think Bellinger is fascinating.
I'm really intrigued by how he's kind of reinvented himself as a hitter.
He's cut down the strikeouts.
I think that swing plays well at Team Mobile Park.
He's had some bad luck this year.
If you look at the babup, it's only a $2.99 babup this year.
So he might be better than the numbers would ultimately indicate.
He's only a 109 WRC plus this year.
Ian Hap is a 120 WRC plus this year.
Really solid player who can play decent defense in a corner.
229, 345, 419 slash line this year.
Solid player.
But again, the contracts are what makes this a complicated fit to say the least.
Cody Bellinger making $27.5 million this year.
That's obviously going to be cut a little bit more in half.
by the by the deadline of course um but next year he has a player option after this year
27 and a half million dollars in 2025 he's going to take that player option especially with the
year that he's having right now uh and then he has another player option after that year for 25
million dollars in 2026 and then for hap he's making 21 million dollars this year again that'll
be cut a little bit more in half um by the by the time you would theoretically acquire him
but you would be on the hook for $21 million in 2025, $19 million in 226.
That is all guaranteed, by the way.
So again, Colby, the players are interesting.
They certainly make a lot of sense just in a vacuum for the Mariners,
but do you think considering the contract situation here that this is something the
the mayors would realistically look into?
It's tough to say.
both of those guys, even with the proration of their their contracts, I think they're making enough
that the Mariners would need some kind of help or like that's all that they could do is just acquire
one of those guys. They need to do more than that. I think by help, I mean, they need money coming
from the Cubs or they need the Cubs to take on one of their bad contracts. Either way,
slice it. That's going to be more expensive and therefore more difficult for Jerry and Justin
to find a deal that works, whether they can get them to take Hanager or Garver or
Polanco or if the Cubs just send cash to them, it's going to cost some prospects to do that.
So probably some pretty good ones.
So yeah, the contracts are very difficult.
And if you're trying to acquire Cody Pellinger, it's like, are we getting him for two months?
Are we getting him for a year and two months?
Are we getting him for two years?
Yeah.
What, how do we approach his trade value?
Because if we get him for two months, that's significantly different than if we get him for a
year in two months and we pay for a year in two months and we only get two months,
we're in a bad spot.
That really hurts.
So, you know, and obviously the Cubs are probably going to negotiate under the assumption
that, well, he's got two years of club control left.
And it's like, he doesn't.
His club control is two months.
Right.
Right.
So it could end up being another year, but it also could not.
And obviously, Bellinger, we can sit here and say he's going to opt in, but we don't know
that.
What if he comes out to Seattle and he hates the ballpark?
He doesn't want to play here.
and he just hops out.
Sure.
So Bellinger is incredibly tricky,
although I think the fit is pretty close to perfect.
I mean, he can play first base,
he can play center field,
he can play all three outfield spots.
The left-handed swing is great.
He doesn't strike out a ton.
He walks a ton.
He's a really good athlete, strong arm.
Yeah, and I could easily see him poppin 35 homers at Team Mobile Park
just because of the pole,
the short porch in right field.
So like Bellinger, if he was,
just a two month. If the Cubs are just like, yeah, he's a rental, right? Like if the Cubs are
going to be reasonable and be like, yeah, he's a rental. He's the guy I'd go get. But Hap is interesting.
I feel like, I feel like Jerry or Justin, one of them really likes Ian Hap. Like, I feel like that's
kind of a mariner type of guy. But again, you know, he's going to be owed, what, 10 million-ish
dollars this year? And then about 20 million AAB over the next two, like, yeah, 40 million
combined over the next two.
Right. So is he a $50 million player at 29 years old with, by the way, a strikeout rate that has jumped 8 or 9% this year over his career norms? He's not an elite defender. He's not an elite base runner. He doesn't have plus power. He's a good player. He is a good player. But he's a three-win player. Is that worth the prospects you have to give up and the $50 million you now committed to him to go and get? It's a little tricky. And again, I think because you need the Cubs to send you money or because you
need the Cubs to take Garber or Hanager more than likely for either of these guys,
then whatever you think they're worth in a vacuum, you probably need to add 30% on top of that
price to get them to make the money work for you.
So yeah, both these guys are very tricky.
They're both pretty good fits for Seattle.
I think Bellinger is a great fit.
I think Ian Hap is a really solid fit, like a really good fit.
So in like in a vacuum, yes, they should be interested.
and both of these guys, they should seriously consider exploring a trade for either one.
In reality, the contract situation is so tough.
And we know it shouldn't be.
Like, the Mariners should be more than willing to pay Cody Bellinger $27 million to be ops out.
But Belliger is just a separate issue altogether.
Because it's, you know, I don't think they're worried so much if he ops out.
I think their worries like, well, what have you, what have he?
Well, it's not any of the ops in, I should say.
It's, it's what to be ops out.
Yeah.
But if that's their concern
If the Cubs are trying to get out of that contract though
Doesn't it hurt them more to try and sell him as a as a
You know
One year plus two months type of player or a two years plus two months type of player
Because at that dollar figure and relative to what he's doing this year again
109 WRC plus like
That's not worth 27 million dollars
And so I feel like that hurts you more in the end
if you're the Cubs, if you're trying to get rid of that contract.
So I don't think they could ask for a lot in that situation and return.
It's still going to be a very depressed hitters market.
So, you know, it's just, it's a really tough needle to thread for both the selling team and the buying team.
Yeah.
So there's, by way, there's no language as far as I can tell in the Beliger contract that says that he has a no trade or that if he's traded, this much becomes guaranteed.
blah, blah, blah, just a standard
$2.5 million buyout if he opts out
after each year. So
at least that's just based on my quick
research. I obviously don't have to me.
Two and a half if he
ops out after this season,
$5 million if he opts
out after 2025.
Right. So
you know, that has a factor in two. So like
even if you say, well,
we pay a little bit less than half, what's called $11
million this year, $12 million this year.
Well, now there's a $2.5 million
kicker. I think.
end too, which the mayors do have to account for.
I should more, Jerry and Justin do have to account for.
They do have a budget to work with.
And I know that Stanton has said publicly that money's not going to be an issue for them at the deadline or whatever.
Yeah, sure.
I'll believe it when I see it.
So, yeah, it's, these are two players that make a lot of sense for Seattle.
I would be really excited if they went and got Bellinger.
I think he's a really good fit for the ballpark.
I love the idea.
but again you have to pay rental prices for him and you probably still need to find a way for
the Cubs to send some money if it's a rental or they need to or they need to take Mitch Hanager
but that would probably only happen with Hap but if they are trying to get rid of
motivation is to clear payroll right yeah yeah they're not going to they're not going to do that
they're probably not even interested in Garver at that point right although
with Hanager and Garver specifically in regards to Ian Hap,
they do still clear 2026 payroll because of both of those players will be free agents.
They'll be free agents in 2026,
whereas you'd still be paying Ian Hap in 2026 if you don't trade them.
So maybe there's a little bit of wiggle room there,
but just keep in mind, like if you're trying to dump a Hanager or Garber on them for
Hap, for example, I think you're probably talking about like,
okay, yeah, now it went from Michael Arroyo to Lazaro Montez.
because we have to take on, you know, this contract,
which, you know, for Seattle, is that worth it?
I think you'd probably just rather pay Michael Oroyo.
But we'll see.
I do think both of those players make a lot of sense, though.
They can make it work money-wise.
Yeah.
All right.
So let's take a look at the rest of the Cubs roster.
Let's talk about like Sayas Suzuki and Mike Talkman and some of those guys in just a moment.
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All you have to do to find that is search the word Mariners.
We'll be talking about that series.
big, big series between the M's and the O's, a little later on in this show.
But let's keep talking about the Cubs roster.
If they do wind up selling, there are quite a few players that I find pretty interesting for the Mariners.
And that goes beyond Nico Horner, Ian Hap, Cody Bellinger, the three guys that we've talked about over the last few segments dating back to yesterday.
I also really like the idea of Sayas Suzuki, who, Colby, you've kind of made.
mentioned in passing. We talked a little bit about him on the Patreon show last week. Tell us a bit
more about Suzuki why you like that idea and if you think that's possible. Yeah, I don't think it's
possible. Well, pretty much anything's possible. I don't think it's likely that the Cubs are going to
trade him. But yeah, he's an interesting player. Obviously, he was kind of a fan favorite target
when he was a free agent a few years ago.
But he has been solid in the big leagues,
but he hasn't blossom into like the star
that some people thought he could be.
It's a pretty good right-handed power there.
He's a pretty good defender.
Like there's a lot to like about Suzuki in general.
He's at a good age.
The contract is totally reasonable.
But it's for all those reasons that I think the Cubs
are probably more likely to hang on to him
because, you know, he is just solid.
He's just a solid player.
who's not making a ton of money.
Now, at the end of the day, I do think that they would listen on Suzuki
because I think their ultimate goal is to clear up a spot for Pete Crow Armstrong
to play every day for the rest of the year.
So that would mean moving an outfielder, which would Suzuki half Bellinger.
So I like Suzuki.
The one thing I will say, he's striking out a little bit this year.
Strikeout's pretty elevated, almost 28%.
But 258, 329, 454, that'll play just fine.
Defensive metrics don't love the guy, but I do think that he's a pretty solid three-win player.
He's, to me, he's like not quite as good as 2018, Machanager, but better than 2019 Machinich.
Like, he's like just a really solid player.
Now, the contract, again, five years, 85 million.
I'm not quite sure how that's broken down year to year, if that's just a flat AAB or not.
but again he is
20
sorry he is
29 years old
and he's still under contract
for the next three plus years
so it's a little bit of a risk
because again is he worth $85 million
if he's a three win player sure
if he's a two win player
no he's he's probably not worth that contract
and he's already you know he's in his prime right now
so is it possible that he gets better
than he is right now?
Sure, it's possible.
Is it likely?
I'd say no.
I think this is probably what you're getting.
You're getting a 260 guy.
You're getting pretty solid on base.
You're getting more doubles than home runs.
I think you're looking at 20 home runs,
but you might be looking at 35, 40 doubles.
And you're getting thumb speed on the base.
It's not a ton.
He's not a base dealer.
And he's not a great defender.
He's not bad, but he's not great.
So it kind of depends on what metrics you want to use on his defense.
Suzuki is a really solid player.
is a really good like number five number six hitter in a really good lineup so it makes sense for
Seattle but there's a lot of questions about his contract his age and his production right now they
all kind of paint this picture of like a maybe like I consider it but right I think the cubs
are going to look at this and they're going to be like sure give us Lazaro Montes because it's three
years of this guy and it's like I'd rather pay the freight for you know louis robert because
I feel like there's star upside in Robert, that there just isn't in Suzuki.
I'll throw a name at you.
How about Drew Smiley.
Yeah.
Now, Smiley is, A-A-V is $9.5 million.
And he has a mutual option after this year.
But he's 35 years old.
We know the mayor has acquired Smiley once.
Didn't work out.
Thanks, Jim Leland.
But he can start.
He's been relieving this year, but he has starting in his background.
the Mariners could use kind of that number five swing type of guy.
You could also get out, get guys out in the bullpen.
He still misses bats at a pretty good rate.
Walk rates elevated this year, but in the past it's been totally fine.
It's, you know, it's a three, three, five, four ERA.
Again, I kind of like the idea of having this swing guy who can kind of start games for
Brian Wu and then go back into the bullpen when you need him.
And he's better than Jonathan Diaz.
Is he worth by the time you acquire him $4 million?
Probably not.
could you add him to like cody bellinger and in that way get the cubs to take
Mitch hanniger without demanding lazaro montes like maybe if you throw drew smiley onto
bellinger you go okay well we'll give you hanager to kind of even out the money uh but we're
not going to do laz because we're taking on another contract for you but instead we'll do
you know uh we'll do aden smith and and type eat or something like whatever it
right so yeah i i do think that uh there are some relievers that are interesting here uh smiley
i like the ability to pitch out of the bullpen but then also start if i need him too the other
bat that i'm kind of interested in is mike talkman he's 33 years old um but he's still
he still has two years of arbitration left uh he's only making two million dollars this year
uh that's going to be cut in half so you're only paying him one
million dollars for the rest of the year or even a little under that he's slashing 259
359 382 this year 117 WRC plus he puts the ball and play a lot he also walks a lot
13% walk rate this year only striking out 20.3% of the time uh just a solid hitter uh and
a feels very feels very Seth Smith yeah yeah that's essentially the idea he's on the IL but
he's expected back soon I believe uh it's
a groin injury for for tockman he landed on the on the iL back on june 18th so we'll see um i would i would suspect
that he should be able to make his way back before the deadline um but that's an interesting
player to take a shot on someone that probably shouldn't cost a ton even though he has a couple
of r beers left because he's older um and again he's just a solid hitter he and
he's a guy that makes a lot of contact
and well what's one of the biggest issues
for the mayor is making contact
another big issue is they don't hit a lot of
home runs and you know who hits a lot of home runs
but also can't hit Patrick Wisdom
who's also on the Cubs.
Yeah, yeah. There's quite a few fits
on this Cubs roster in general.
I think this is certainly a place
that the mayor should be pretty interested
in working something out with
I don't know if it's going to be necessarily
on the high end like Bellinger and Hap
with all the issues that we talked about
earlier. But Talkman makes
sense. A couple of the bullpen arms makes sense.
We'll see about
Sayas Suzuki. I'm not sure
about that. But
there are quite a few avenues
here with the Cubs.
Nico Horner, again, we talked about him yesterday.
I think that makes a lot of sense if they're open to dealing
him. And again,
you need guys who
look,
offense is your biggest issue.
But you also need to get more athletic. You need to get better
defensively as well. Horner does give you
And like I said yesterday, he's a league average bat this year, but that's still better than quite a few of the guys you're rolling out in your lineup every day.
So I would still help.
That's still a net positive, even though it's relatively underwhelming.
But again, there are going to be guys that the mayors potentially bring in over the course of this month that are going to be underwhelming to you.
But they're probably going to help because they're probably still, they're more likely than not still a net positive over what you have right now.
Yeah, Cubs, definitely a way to make that happen.
All right, so let's talk about the Baltimore Orioles who are coming to town.
Three games set here Tuesday through Thursday.
We'll get you set for that one in just a moment.
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And you're listening to the Lockdown Marries podcast. Once again, you can catch the Ems and the
Orioles tonight on the Marriss hometown broadcast series XM via the SXM app. All you have to do to find
that is search the word, Mary,
It's a big, big, big, big, big home stand, which has not gotten off to the greatest of starts.
The mayor's one and two on this homestand.
And now they're going to try and stop the bleeding against, well, the best team in the American League and the second best team in all of baseball.
So that's fun.
That inspires me with a ton of hope.
So let's talk about these pitching matchups, which are kind of up.
the air at the moment. We were supposed to have an idea of how this was going to line up a few days
ago. But now it says TBD for the Orioles on Wednesday and Thursday. But it seemed as if it was
going to be, I mean, tonight it's confirmed. It's going to be George Curry against Grayson Rodriguez.
But tomorrow, it seemed like it was going to be Corbyn Burns against Logan Gilbert. Burns was just
activated off of the paternity list. So we shouldn't have any issue making that start tomorrow,
tomorrow but they still have it set to TBD for now.
And then Wednesday, it was, or Thursday rather,
it was supposed to be Bryce Miller against Dean Kramer,
but Kramer still hasn't been activated off of the IL.
Right.
Kramer really struggled in his last rehab start.
I think he's done two rehab starts now.
They have a knock on well at all.
So they may want to keep him down there for another go-round.
So we really don't know about Thursday's slot.
I feel pretty confident Burns will start tomorrow though.
Yay.
Now, to be fair, it doesn't really matter.
Does it really matter?
No.
Now, the good news is you're countering them with your two best guys,
or at least the two guys who are pitching the best for you right now,
in Kirby and Gilbert.
Kirby against Baltimore?
Don't know.
Who knows?
He's either getting shelled or he's going eight scoreless.
Like there's no in between against Baltimore.
Kirby faces the Orioles.
Either Orioles get him or he gets Baltimore.
There's no like, oh, he went six innings and gave up two or three runs and like strike out four.
Like, nope, nope.
He's either going three and a third and giving up eight or he is going seven scoreless and striking out ten.
There is no in between in this matchup.
And then Gilbert versus Burns, I mean, if Logan keeps pitching the way he has been for the last month,
this could be a legitimate Cy Young matchup.
So we'll have to wait and see how that goes.
but obviously Logan, you know, in the meantime,
trying to secure his spot on the American League All-Star team.
So lots of good pitching.
And then Miller at home, pretty good, wasn't all that great in his last out
and he really battled against Minnesota.
So we know Baltimore can hit the fastball.
So some fun pitching matchups, but, you know, the way the Mariners are playing right now,
you don't really want fun pitching matchups.
You want to be facing like, again, not that it matters,
but you want to be facing like the AA call-up who's 27 years old
and never pitch in the big ones before.
Oh, yeah, right, because that guy will totally not strike out nine over five innings pitch.
I mean, Sean Anderson didn't.
So.
Sure.
But yeah, I mean, pitching matchups are going to be fun in Seattle and Baltimore.
They play close games.
Like, regardless of how you feel about these two teams, they always play really close games against each other.
So, yeah.
I mean, the Marin has played close games against everyone, right?
Sure.
Again, this is how good this pitching staff is.
And it's also a testament to.
to just in general how this team grinds out games.
But they got to take advantage of opportunities when they're given to them.
And they'll get opportunities,
especially if Kramer pitches against them on Thursday.
Like they will get opportunities to score in that game.
You have to take advantage.
The issue really for this team hasn't been generating traffic on the base pass.
It's converting once they get that traffic on the base pass.
Yeah.
You're also facing Baltimore at a decent time.
They've lost six of their last 10.
so, you know, they're struggling a little bit like you are.
They just got swept by the Astros not too long ago.
So, you know, you're not playing them at their best, but, you know,
the mayor's offense has a tendency to make teams start to play better.
It's weird how that happens, but it seems to happen a lot.
Sure.
Hopefully, hopefully here over the next few days, we can at least see,
even if maybe they lose a couple of these games,
we can see progress back into a more respectable product than we've seen over the last couple weeks.
That'd be nice.
That would be ideal.
All right.
That's going to do it for our show.
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locked on mariner's podcast for colby pat node i'm ty dang gonzalus be sure to give us a follow on
twitter at lo underscore mariners you can follow me at tie dain gonzalez and colby at c pat 11 that's
cpat 1-1 you can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode have yourself a
beautiful baseball day and we'll see you next time peace
Thank you.
