Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Do the Recent Luis Castillo Rumors Mean the Mariners Have Changed Course?

Episode Date: December 9, 2024

It's Mailbag Monday! Does the Boston Globe's recent report that the Mariners are open to listening to offers on Luis Castillo mark a change of plans for the team this winter? Ty and Colby answer that ...and much more. Check out our Patreon!Follow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @TyDaneGonzalez | @CPat11Follow the show on Bluesky: @lockedonmariners | @tdg | @mlbcolbySupport Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!GametimeDownload the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONMLB for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Download Gametime today. What time is it? Gametime.Omaha SteaksFrom legendary steaks to mouthwatering desserts and more, save fifty percent off site-wide at OmahaSteaks.com. Plus, our listeners get an extra thirty dollars off with Promo Code MLB and a thirty-dollar reward card when you shop early.IbottaDownload the FREE Ibotta app now and use code LOCKEDONMLB to get 100% cash back on your Thanksgiving feast starting November 1.FanDuelYou can start the season with a big return on FanDuel. New customers can place a FIVE DOLLAR bet and you’ll get started with ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY DOLLARS in BONUS BETS - if you win your first FIVE DOLLAR BET ! Visit FANDUEL.COM to get started. FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:00 So the Mariners are reportedly listening to teams interested in Luis Castillo. Does this mark a change of plans for the team this winter? We'll answer that and a whole lot more coming up here on Mailbag Monday. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Ahoy, Sailors, it is Monday, December 9th, 2024.
Starting point is 00:00:31 This is Tadding, is Austin. And Colby Patnaud for the Lockdown Marers Podcasts. podcast part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. We'll be opening up the mailbag and answering your Mariners questions like we do here every Monday. Monday. We'll also be spinning the wheel for our top five Tuesday topics. But before we get into all that, shout out to our title sponsor today, Fanduel. New customers can place a $5 bet and you'll get started with $150 in bonus bets if you win
Starting point is 00:00:55 that first $5.com to get started. And if you want to hear from me and Colby even more and help support the show, check out our Patreon. All you have to do is click the link in the description of this episode to check that up. So kicking us off here on Mailbag Monday is Chad, who wants to know. Do we think the front office has shifted their tune on trading a starting pitcher for a particular reason?
Starting point is 00:01:15 Or do we think that this is them just enabling conversations to be had at the winter meetings to see what is available? So if you missed it last night, we got a report from the Boston Globe that said that the mayors are willing to listen to teams that are interested in Luis Castillo. So, Colby, to you, does that mark maybe a change of plans for the mayors or what? What do you make of that? Nothing. Because, and this has always been true, the Seattle Mariners will listen on any player that they write a paycheck to in their entire organization.
Starting point is 00:01:54 They will listen. If you want to ask them about Julio Rodriguez, they'll hear you out. I mean, it's a waste of your time, almost certainly. but every player in that organization has a price that the mayors will sell that player to you for. Absolutely, they do. And that obviously would include Luis Castillo. That would also include Bryce Miller and Logan Gilbert, Cal Raleigh. Like, it doesn't matter, right?
Starting point is 00:02:19 All the way down from a guy in Singly, all the way to your best player. The Marers will listen. That doesn't mean they're engaged in deep trade talks. It doesn't mean that they're trying to trade somebody away. No, it just means they'll listen. If you want to, if you have an idea, they'll hear you out. And that's by the way, that they should operate like that. Every team in baseball is worth to you.
Starting point is 00:02:40 You can put a price on it. The Mariners have a price on every single player in their organization. They have one on Castillo. So the fact that they're willing to listen on Castillo doesn't tell me anything. It doesn't because they're willing to listen on everybody. So I think, you know, I get why like this is reaction. So it's the off season. There's nothing going on.
Starting point is 00:03:00 It's been pretty slow. So anytime the Mariners are mentioned, you know, with anything, it's, it's a big to do. And does this mean this? Does this mean this? No, this means that the Mariners are operating the way the Mariners should operate, which is they'll listen. I mean that they'll trade Castillo. No, it doesn't mean that. And we should mention that Adam Jude wrote an article posted at about 15 to 20 minutes before we recorded today that said they're not actively shopping Castillo. No.
Starting point is 00:03:29 They're just the same. Yeah. They'll listen. and if they feel like something's on the right track, then maybe then they engage a little bit more, but right now they're listening, right? And so the Red So this coming from the Red Sox, by the way, is not a surprise either.
Starting point is 00:03:45 A couple days ago, there was the report that, like, they shopped around Tristan Kossis looking for starting pitching, and Adam Jude has since confirmed that that was the Mariners. And the Red Sox wanted Miller or Wu, the Mariners said, heck no, as they should. So yeah, to me, this doesn't mean anything. It just, it's reiteration of what we already knew.
Starting point is 00:04:06 The marriage will listen. And if you can come to them with the Godfather offer, they'll do it. So, yeah, it really is nothing. And like the whole Plan Z thing, like, I get it. He says it's a Plan Z to trade from the rotation and now they're willing to listen. Guys, they were listening on Logan Gilbert. And you want to come to them with the Logan Gilbert offer, they'll listen. Plan Z doesn't mean it won't happen.
Starting point is 00:04:28 Well, and look, I didn't really view. Castillo is part of the plan Z thing. Because this is a much a different situation than the other four starting pitchers. We got a guy who's on the north side of 30 years old. He's the one guy in the rotation who's making significant amount of money. Obviously, we know the deal with the Mariners and money.
Starting point is 00:04:50 Don't need to reiterate that. So yeah. Of course, they would be open to listening on a deal for Castillo. But I also think there are very specific boxes that the mayors have to check off in order for them to make a trade for Castillo work for them, which is, one, you got to get something useful back.
Starting point is 00:05:08 You have to address one of your other needs. In a Castillo trade. You also need the team acquiring him to take on most, if not all of the contract. Because, again, what Castillo is making right now, it's more than reasonable.
Starting point is 00:05:26 We'll also talk about that a little bit later on. We have an interesting question. about like what castillo would make if he hit the upper market right now so we'll get into that a little later on but what castillo is making is more than reasonable especially when you see what like the u.s.a cacuchis and the louis separinos and all those kinds of pictures are making in this market and then three like you know you got to feel confident that you're going to be able to redistribute that money to help the rest of your roster and then four you also have to feel confident that you can do all that while also establishing some sort of better alternative to Castillo than just Emerson Hancock,
Starting point is 00:06:07 Brandon Garcia, Michael Morales, Logan. Can't count on a AAA pitcher to replace Castillo. Otherwise, it's not worth it. And I just don't know how realistic that is to be able to check off all those boxes. And I also don't know if the mirrors view those boxes in the same light that I do. But also, all of this is assuming that Luis Castillo is even going to wave as no trade clause. to go to the team that you're talking to, right? I have doubts and obviously I'm not Luis Castillo.
Starting point is 00:06:36 I don't know the guy, whatever, but I have doubts that he would waive his no trade clause to go join the Cubs, frankly. I mean, yeah, the only way to know, though, is to get a deal done. And then, and see. Luis, do you want to. And so, you know,
Starting point is 00:06:52 it's the frustrating thing about a no trade clause, but at the same time, Luis Castillo earned that right. He negotiated into his contract. And, yeah. So, you know, it's not, and I don't think anybody would act this way, but like Luis Castillo doesn't want to go to the Cubs. He's not a villain, right? He's just a guy who wants to stay in Seattle or doesn't want to go to Chicago or Boston or Philly or whatever. Like, it doesn't matter who it is or what it is. So, yeah, the Castile thing remains very sticky again.
Starting point is 00:07:19 And just because he has a no trade clause doesn't mean that he'll absolutely, you know, decline a trade or anything like that. We just don't know. And it's just this huge cloud that's hanging over you. but the only way to learn is to present Castillo with the move. All of this is just to say that there are a lot of hoops to jump through and a lot of boxes that need to be checked off. And I just don't know how much of that is going to line up at the end of the day. Right.
Starting point is 00:07:44 And I think, you know, again, I don't think the Mariners have changed their plans at all. No. No, I still think it's a hard no unless they get their socks blown off for any of the other four pitchers. And then for Castillo, yeah, because again. If you meet enough of our criteria, sure. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:07:59 Well, listen. He's an older-ish pitcher who's making money. Yeah. Of course the Maris would have some interest in trading him if it all lines up for them. If they think that they can make their 20, 25 roster better by trading Luis Castillo, they'll do it. And that's been true back in October. It's still true today. Nothing has changed.
Starting point is 00:08:22 So, no, I don't think the Mariners have, you know, seen the market. and they're like, oh, now we have to, no, I don't think that's. No, I mean, like, I do think maybe within the self-establish payroll restrictions that they have, and, you know, with them only really wanting to trade prospects for major league pieces, that maybe they've hit some brick walls. So maybe that has led them to be a bit more open on Castillo or what have you. But generally speaking, I don't. think much has changed, like, especially when it comes to the rotation. Like, I think they would,
Starting point is 00:09:00 I think they've always had, you know, an open-mindedness to trading Castillo, as we talked about. But I don't think this means, like, they're more willing to trade Wool or Miller or Gilbert or Kirby now, because maybe they've hit some dead ends this offseason. So, yeah. All right. So, we're going to answer more of your questions here in just a moment. But first, a reminder of this episode of the Lockdown Merritton, Merritt's podcast is brought to you by Omaha Stakes. Nothing delivers comfort and joy quite like the unrivaled quality and taste of Omaha Steaks. This year, skip the holiday hustle and bustle and save 50% off sitewide during their cyber sale at Omaha Steaks.com. Plus, get a $30 reward card when you shop early and score an extra $30 off with promo code MLB.
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Starting point is 00:10:32 $30 off with promo code MLB. Minimum purchase may apply. And you're listening to the Lockdown Merrittor's podcast. It is Mailbag Monday. We're answering your Merritt's questions as the winter meetings are going on right now down in Dallas.
Starting point is 00:10:50 Aiden wants to know, would you target a young, more unproven pitcher as a target more as a second or third piece and a deal and a trade involving one of the Mariners starters. I think you guys had mentioned Bobby Miller from the Dodgers as a potential name in a Castillo trade previously. Any other names to watch
Starting point is 00:11:05 for? I don't know if Miller would be realistic in a Castillo to the Dodgers trade. He had a really bad year, but also the Dodgers probably think that they can fix them. And there's a lot of talent there. So yeah, but yeah, that is someone that we did mention just
Starting point is 00:11:21 kind of in passing as like, hey, would they trade Bobby Miller? I don't know. One name that I would keep an eye on here. When it comes to the Cubs, if Castillo and the Cubs is kind of a real thing. Jordan Wicks, maybe former first round pick out of Kansas State. Also from the Cubs, two guys from the Cubs, Javier Assad. He's just the number five. Like, that's all he is.
Starting point is 00:11:46 And that's fine. He's better than Emerson, Hancock. So that's what you're looking for if you are trading Castillo. Also, maybe Ben Brown. former highly touted prospect had a pretty good year with the cubs last year but out of their bullpen the marriage might try and put them back uh in the rotation um so yeah you know if you're looking for like young pitchers like i don't think this is going to happen but like if you're like talking to the red sox i don't know could you get cutter crawford in the deal to throw on your rotation
Starting point is 00:12:17 um so yeah there are guys uh that you could in theory get as like a second or third piece but that probably involves you adding a prospect to get like like cutter crawford right for example castillo like i don't know are you trading castillo for masataka yoshita you might just get cutter crawford back for free in that case but i don't know it's like tristan cossis for some weird reason and cutter crawford then you're probably giving them you know las montes and you know what i mean so yeah i mean there are a few guys out there but again, until we actually like have any like real feel for like who's actually interested in, uh, in Castillo, uh, it's tough to really pinpoint, uh, any young starters.
Starting point is 00:13:04 But yeah, I do think that Bobby Miller would still make sense. I still think that, um, you know, Assad, Wicks, Ben Brown, Cutter Crawford, those type guys, guys who are probably number four at most at best, like that's their ceiling. But yeah, I think it's possible you could get that. You might have to add a prospect, though, on your end to get the pitcher back. So we'll see. Sal's DR wants to know which free agent slash team pairings do you see as potentially opening up an opportunity for the mares to acquire a useful piece via trade. I resign myself to the fact that the mares aren't going to be players of free agency.
Starting point is 00:13:38 So which Phillies sign Bregman now, Bome, is more available dreams should I have. So there was one that I thought about last night that I actually texted you about, Colby. this isn't a free agent team pairing it's a trade target team pairing that I think could have a trickle down effect here for the merrers that would be Nolan aeronato to the Dodgers and what that could mean for max munsey and if Muncie is available because obviously they got Freeman at first oh Tommy's going to deage I don't think Muncie should be playing second so I think Max Muncie would be available if they acquired Aaronado and it seems like there is some interest there from the Dodgers when it comes to Aronado so Sounds like it's Dodgers or Yankees Farronado. Those are the only teams that he'll wave as no trade clause for. We'll see. Obviously, things can change quite a bit. But yeah, that would be one.
Starting point is 00:14:31 Even if the Dodgers do think, like, yeah, we, you know, Monsie can play second base and it's like, okay, well, what are you going to do with Gavin Lux? Who's the guy we talked about a little bit as a potential second base option? So, yeah, that's definitely one. The specific example of Bone or. of, you know, Bregman going to the Phillies makes Bome more available. No, Alex Bohn, or I'm sorry, Alec Bome is very much out there already.
Starting point is 00:14:57 Like, he's not more available. Whether the Phillies get Bregman or not, they're going to trade out of Bome this winter. So what might be interesting, though, and the Bregman thing is what if Bregman signs with the Tigers is Matt Beirling all of a sudden available. And that's an interesting guy. I could play third, good athlete, got some pop.
Starting point is 00:15:14 I can play multiple positions too. He doesn't lock you down or anything like that. So yeah, like, I mean, if Bregman signs with the Tigers, is Matt Beirling available? Maybe. Maybe, you know, so there's stuff like that, but, you know, specifically with Bome, he's already available. Like, he's not getting more available in trade.
Starting point is 00:15:35 But yeah, I do think the Aeronado and Muncie thing is a good thought. And then again, also, that could also be Gavin Lux, too. Like, either one of those guys could be pushed off the roster. So, yeah. I think you're probably more looking at that because like just based on the rumors I'm seeing like like for example the Dodgers right they signed Michael Conforto to a ridiculous contract last night if they also keep Teasca Hernandez what are you all of a sudden interested in Chris Taylor no like that that's not a thing so yeah it doesn't happen often but I would watch the Tigers if they go out and they get you know if they get Bregman is virilling all of a sudden available and maybe on a lesser end because this probably isn't the case, but like it sounds like the Cubs are interested in Josh Naler. If they get Nailer, Michael Bush, is he all of a sudden available?
Starting point is 00:16:30 Maybe, probably not, but maybe. So yeah, I think you're more looking at trade stuff that goes down that will make new players potentially available to the mayor's more so than free agency. Jacob wants to know you mentioned Willie Castro as a potential target from the twins. I'm wondering if there are any controllable pieces that you could see the mayor is targeting. assume from the twins here because he asks maybe edward julian or awesome martin both are coming off down years but feel like they could be jerry targets i do like the idea of julian as like a strong side platoon option at second base talked about him a little bit yeah uh awesome martin i'm not a huge
Starting point is 00:17:11 fan of so i'm kind of out on that but uh julian i would have interest in is there anyone else on the twins specifically on the twins. No, not really. You know, Kiroloff retire? I'm for sure Kiroloff retired. Yeah, he retired. Yeah. So, I mean, that would have been one possibility, perhaps.
Starting point is 00:17:37 But no, like, you're not getting Brooks Lee. You're not getting Royce Lewis. You're not getting Carlos Correa. Byron Buckson doesn't make a ton of sense with the money that he's owed and his injury risk and all that stuff. So no, nobody on the twins specifically other than Julianne. I think that's a pretty solid idea. We talked about that in the past.
Starting point is 00:17:56 So, yeah, if you're looking specifically for the twins in terms of like a essentially kind of like a bi-low, right, a pre-ar bi-low guy, I think that's a guy. And then maybe just maybe if you're looking like broader, I don't know. Do they think they can get something out of Nick Madrigal, former first round pick from Oregon State, some speed, some contact, pretty good defense, no power whatsoever. Do they think they can help him?
Starting point is 00:18:20 Like that might be a guy they look at it for agency. But now from the twins, I think Julian is, is it Martin? Like, fine, whatever. He's a utility guy, but I'm not a huge, you know, Martin guy anyway. So I do like the Julian idea, though. I think that's a sneaky ad that could happen. For sure. All right, we're going to answer a couple more of your questions.
Starting point is 00:18:39 And then spin the wheel for our top five Tuesday topics in just a moment. But first, a reminder of this episode of the Lockdown Maris podcast is brought to you by Fandul. Get ready to text. tackle the NFL action with Fandul, America's number one sportsbook, because right now new customers can bet $5 and get $150 back in bonus bets if you win. The Fandual Sportsbook app gives you everything you need to place live bets on the NFL all in one place. So when you get a hunch in the middle of the game, you can check out the latest stats,
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Starting point is 00:19:42 were you confident that Marys would add an experienced high-leverage reliever to the pen? Were you relieved, pun intended, that they had an interest in Clay Holmes and seemed to be prioritizing it? I said they had an interest in Clay Holmes. Right, right. Those words never came from this podcast. Who were you talking about, Colby? Was it Pete Alonzo? Was it Anthony Santander?
Starting point is 00:20:09 Were you talking about Juan Soto, Colby? Let's say I was. Sure, yeah. Why not? Sure, yeah. I can report that the Mariners offer fell well short at the 15 years, $765 million. That's because
Starting point is 00:20:22 that's because their offer was zero years for zero dollars. Vibes. Right. Right. So I had hope that they would add a high leverage reliever.
Starting point is 00:20:37 But I didn't expect it. Had it into the soft season. So when these rumors started to circulate about like, hey, they're actually looking at high leverage relievers like Clay Holmes. that was pretty surprising to me, especially considering the kind of money that it's going to take to sign someone like that.
Starting point is 00:20:54 So, yeah, I don't know if they're actually going to end up with one of these guys. There's still plenty of options. But yeah, it is nice to hear that they are swimming in those waters, or at least attempting to, because the bullpen was a problem,
Starting point is 00:21:14 especially towards the end of the year. they could use some legitimate help, not some mid-leverage help, like some actual high-leverage help, especially if Gregory Santos isn't the guy that they thought they were requiring. If Colin Stader takes a step back, if Matt Brash isn't going to be able to give them
Starting point is 00:21:30 what you would hope you're going to get out of Matt Brash, especially coming off of that injury. So, yeah, there's a lot of variables in the bullpen outside of Vonders-Munoz, who obviously dealt with his own injury stuff last year. So, yeah, high leverage reliever, I think is an underrated pretty significant need for this team. And so it doesn't really surprise me that, you know, they have identified that as a need,
Starting point is 00:21:57 but it is a bit surprising that they are willing to potentially spend a decent chunk of change to, to address that. Yeah, I'm pleasantly surprised that they are acknowledging that that is a real need they have because, I mean, like, keep in mind, like, the Mariners bullpen at the end of the year ranked, like, 24th in baseball by fan graphs. And they had to cover the fewest innings. They're like a pretty significant chunk. Like, the starters really did their job of just, like, not asking the bullpen to consistently cover four or five innings every night. Most nights, they had to cover three or less.
Starting point is 00:22:36 And so, and they were still bad. So they didn't even have to use, like, the weakest spot. thoughts of their bullpen as much as other teams. And they were still one of the worst teams of baseball. So yeah, they absolutely need a bullpen help. And yeah, it's nice to see them, you know, swimming around and, you know, the, not quite the top levels of the, of the, right. Like, I would be very surprised if they were in on like Tanner Scott.
Starting point is 00:23:01 Yeah, they're not. But, you know, the fact that they're into Clay Holmes. And Holmes went for about what I think we expected them to, $12 million a year. Like, yeah. Yeah. It's about what it is. And, you know, it's interesting. the one thing that really hasn't exploded is the reliever market.
Starting point is 00:23:15 It's still, you know, if you're a good reliever coming off of a down year, you're going to get $7, $8 million. If you're, you know, like an all-star quality reliever, you're going to get 10 to 12 depending on your age and, you know, in your history. So, yeah, then that's still been pretty consistent. So I think the Mariners might have one or two more guys in that end of the pool that they're going to try and grab. and if they can't, then maybe they just, you know, I don't want to pay $7 million for Ryan Stanick, right?
Starting point is 00:23:47 Like if I'm going to pay, I'd rather pay $10 million for Clay Holmes and $7 million for the Ryan, whoever the Ryan Stanik is in free agency this year, right? So we'll wait and see how that works out. But yeah, I was pretty surprised and pleasantly surprised that the Mariners at least seem to understand that, like, yeah, we can't just sit back and hope that Matt Brasson. is healthy and we can't wait and say well you know Gregory Santos will be fully healthy like no they understand they need another high leverage arm back there now whether or not they can get one that's the big question but at least they're acknowledging that yeah that that's a reality at Dauer optimist aka I don't know what to say that's what their Twitter name is asked if Luis Castillo was a free agent in this market what kind of contract do you think he
Starting point is 00:24:36 would get Colby you said that you did some research into this. So what do you think right now if Luis Castillo was a free agent, what would he get? Yeah. So, you know, it's interesting when you do these things. You always kind of go and you look for comps. And the more recent the cop, the better because there's less inflation involved, the more recently you go back. And fortunately, there were some good cops. So Luis Castillo, I believe, is entering his age 32 season. Might be 33, but I think it's age 32. Yeah. So, you know, you're looking for guys who are 30, 31, 32, 33, somewhere in that range, who recently signed free agent contracts. And what did they get? And so, again, it's not perfect.
Starting point is 00:25:27 Everything's a little bit different here. But for example, Aaron Nola, he was 31 when he signed his deal with the Phillies. He got seven years, $172 million. Now, it's only 24.5 million AAB, but he got seven years. So I think that's the floor is 24 million AAV, which is what he's getting right now. However, you look at a guy like Carlos Rodon, he got 6 and 162 at the age of 30. That's 27 million AAV. Now, Rodan was coming off of back-to-back really good seasons, but there's a big history of missing time with Rodan when he's signed. And probably the cherry on top of all this is that Tyler Glassnow, who has never thrown more than 121 innings, in a season in his big league career.
Starting point is 00:26:14 He got 5 and 136 at the age of 30. Like last night was 30. Like I don't think people realize that. He got 27.31 million AAB. And I think when you factor in Castillo's dependability, his track record, and the way that the starting pitching market is trending, he would get roughly $27 to $30 million a year on this free agent market. Now, if it was a four-year deal, because he's 32, then I think he's going to get about 120.
Starting point is 00:26:50 If it's a six or seven-year deal, then I think he'd get closer to 160, 170, which would be a lower AAB than the four-year deal, but obviously more money overall. So when I look at Glass now, I look at Rodon, I look at Nola, those are guys who are all in the Louis Castillo range in terms of what they are as pitchers. I look at their age and their track record. Nola is probably the closest comp, and he got $7.172 million. Like, yeah. So Luis Castillo, free agent this winter, he's getting at least $150 million over six years. And he's probably getting in the 120 to 130 range over four years. So again, the AV is going to fluctuate the more years you give him,
Starting point is 00:27:39 the lower the AAB is going to be. But yeah, I'm very confident in saying that Castillo on this market right now would get $27 to $30 million a year pretty easily. Because again, you say Kukuchi got 21. Luis Severino got 21. Matt Boyd got 14 and a half off of eight starts. Luis Castillo, he would get $27 to $30 million. I'm very confident in that per year. And again, if he wants like a seven, eight year deal and he just wants one last contract,
Starting point is 00:28:14 then that number probably gets knocked down to his current AAV. But over seven years, that's $170 million. So, yeah. No, I think realistically he would get five, 140, which is about 28 mil. Yeah. Yeah. Probably. And that's factoring in that he didn't have a very good year last year.
Starting point is 00:28:34 I mean, it was a good year, but not a great year. And there might be club mutual options. something like that after year two or year three but yeah yeah the a v is is still going to be again like I said somewhere between 27 to 30 million dollars yeah and you're going to pay him 24 this year these and that's again you're paying him 24 coming off with just a two-win season he's still worth it he is not a problem on the payroll yeah so before we spend the wheel for our top five Tuesday topics. Jerry Depoto is on MLB Network right now.
Starting point is 00:29:15 I'm seeing some of the tweets that are coming out from people watching. Shannon Dreher tweeted. DePoto also noted that they have been, quote unquote, very aggressive in talking with other teams about trades that include the upper end of the M's prospect system. He listed Tyler Locklear and Cole Young as ready to go and said Ben Williamson would likely start at AAA. young being referred to as ready to go when Hollander has said he's going to start the year in AAA.
Starting point is 00:29:46 Is that interesting at all to you? Sounds more like posturing to me. Like, hey, we have these guys that we think are big league ready. And so we don't have to do this. We don't have to do that. But also telling these other clubs, like, yeah, these guys can play the big leagues this year. Like keep that in mind. You're not trading for some far off, like all three of those dudes that he mentioned.
Starting point is 00:30:06 they can play in the big leagues this year and two of them in our estimation are big leakers right now. So I think that's more posturing than anything else. Gotcha. Yeah. All right. So it's also worth noting that he said that they've been been resistant on engaging in discussion on trade talks with the Mariners young starters. And Shannon says, including Gilbert Kirby, Miller, and Wu, but nothing about Castillo. So pretty much everything we were reiterated today.
Starting point is 00:30:38 Yeah. All right. So let's spin the wheel for our top five Tuesday topics. You've got the helm this week. So on the helm this week are just two options. And we're leaving it at two options because this is going to be our last top five Tuesday for a little while. Because if you missed it next week, just to give you guys a reminder, we are going to be going to three shows a week. on locked on until
Starting point is 00:31:06 pitchers and catchers report. So for about the next six, seven weeks, however many weeks it is until pitchers and catchers report. And then we'll be back to five shows a week from that point forward until you know, next December, right? So Top five Tuesday still might make an appearance
Starting point is 00:31:23 or maybe it'll make an appearance on a Thursday or what have you, you know, if it works for us you know, on a certain week. But for the most part, we're going to put a pause on the series for a little while until we're back to five shows a week. So yeah, let's get into this wheel here and see what Colby's going to be talking about tomorrow. Ah, there we go.
Starting point is 00:31:49 Worst trades in Meriters, okay. Which is a highly requested topic in our comments section after you did the best trades of Mariner's history. So now we're going to get into the worst trades of Mariner's history. That's going to be a pretty difficult list to put together, I would think. Lots of options. A lot of options. there are twice as many options here on the Ed Helms for me this week. So let's see what I get.
Starting point is 00:32:24 Ooh, top five walk-up songs, which that's right up my alley. We're going to be doing top five Mariners walk-up songs. And I'm just going to go off of this past year's list. So we'll just go off of the 2024 walk-up songs for the Maras. I'll give you my top five off of those. I think they have them listed. on the Marrers website, if I'm not mistaken. But I think there's also a website.
Starting point is 00:32:49 I forget what it's called. If you guys know, let me know in the comments below. But I believe there's a website out there that also keeps track of walk-up songs for players around the league. Over under. I don't know. Three and a half songs, I'll recognize when you tell me what they are. Under.
Starting point is 00:33:08 Hammering the under. So there you have it. Again, this is going to be the last top five Tuesday. for a little while until we're back to five shows a week. I mean, again, maybe we'll do it one of these weeks over the next couple of months. But yeah, it should be a fun one. Worst trades and Mariners history. And then top five walk-up songs coming your way on tomorrow's episode.
Starting point is 00:33:32 So that's going to do it for our show. Thank you so much for joining us here on the lockdown Mariners podcast. Colby Patnode, I'm Tiding Gonzalez. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L.O. underscore Mariners. You can follow me at Tiding, Gazzalus, and Colby at C-Pat-11. We're also on Blue Sky. You can follow me at TDG, Colby at MLB Colby, and the show at Lockdown Merrers.
Starting point is 00:33:50 Have yourself a beautiful baseball day, and we'll see you next time. Peace.

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