Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Do the Seattle Mariners Need Josh Naylor to Hit MORE HOME RUNS in 2026?! | Mailbag Monday

Episode Date: January 26, 2026

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Last night was obviously a big night in Seattle sports. So how do we plan on keeping the party going? Answering some baseball questions, of course. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Ahoy, Sailors, it is Monday, January 26, 2026.

You're listening to the Lockdown Marries Podcasts, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network. Now the number one sports podcast network. My name is Tudang Azales, and I'm joined as always by my co-coast Colby Patnode. We're two lifelong Marys fans who've been covering the team for over half a decade. And today we're going to open up the mailbag like we do here every single Monday and answer some of your mayor's questions. But before we do, I want to shout out our title sponsor today, Fandul. It's the last call for football on FanDuel. If you're a new customer, bet just $5 and get $200 in bonus bets if you went.

Kicking us off here on Mailbag Monday is Jake, aka Raise the Trident on Twitter. who wants to know we know that Josh Naylor has had many evolutions in his offensive game over his career. He's either been a high average guy or a high slugging guy, but not both at the same time for his first full season in Seattle and especially at T-Mobile Park. What type of offensive production do you expect to see from Josh? I think we'll see probably the 20 home run version of Josh, which is higher average, more on base, more doubles. You know, again, like Jake said, he had kind of the one year in Cleveland where he hit 30 home runs, but the, you know, the batting average drop pretty significantly. And so, you know, I think Team Mobile Park is a good part for him to hit in.

Clearly, the power to the pole side is evident, and that's where Nailor is going to hit home runs. He's not trying to, you know, go gap to gap for his power. It's pull power. And so he understands who he is as a hitter. I think the best version of Josh Naylor is also the best version of Mitch Hanniger, which is the guy who's like, I'm here to get hits. I'm here to hit the ball hard. I'm going to go, you know, hit doubles.

I'm going to get on base. I'm going to have a high average. I'm not going to strike out a ton. And, you know, in the right situations and the right pitches, I can turn on those and I can hit home runs and I can get to 20, 25 home runs instead of trying to hit 40. So I think that's the best path for Naylor is just kind of do what he did last year. And I think who he was in Seattle last year, certainly more of a souped up version of who he was for most of his time in Cleveland. But I think that's what you're looking for.

Hit 20 home runs and then, you know, get that 280 batting average with the, you know, mid-300, like 350, 360, 360 on base and 30 doubles, 20 home runs, whatever it is, slug 450. I think that's the best version of Josh Naylor. I think the better question here, though, is do the mayors need him to be a 30-plus homer guy? because you just lost 26 homers in Horace Polanco. Gino might not be back. You've lost a lot of homers in this lineup. And Brendan Donovan is obviously not going to make up for a ton of that. If that's the guy that you bring in, if you bring in anyone.

So do the parents kind of need Naylor to pump out more homers? Maybe because Cal is certainly not going to hit 60 again. So, you know, perhaps. I mean, could the return of Luke Rayleigh make up some of that difference? Sure, could, you know, a full season of Canzone? Could that, you know, could he crank out 25 homers and kind of help make up the difference? Sure. So, yeah, I mean, it's possible.

I think there's pretty decent odds that, like, the home runs you lost from Polo, they'll be taken by guys who already on the roster. So I don't think you need anything more from Josh. And, hey, you know what? He's hit 30 home runs in a season before. He's hit 280 in a season before. He just hasn't done them in the same year. who's to say he can't do it.

I mean, he hasn't, but based on how he hit in Seattle last year and how, you know, you kind of pace out his numbers with the Mariners over the course of a full season, he's certainly capable of it. So I don't think he needs to hit more home runs. And honestly, I don't think that's Josh's concern. Josh's concern should be like, hey, how do I help the team the most in what version of myself? And to me, it's that it's the overall hitter more so than trying to hit home runs. That's the best way to help the Mariners.

it's on everybody else, including the front office, to build a better lineup so that Josh doesn't have to try and make up that power gap that makes this. So no, I think if they're asking Josh, hey,

maybe this is a year you need to try for 30, you know, bombs or whatever, I think that's really bad. I think that's indicative of how terrible of an offseason the Mariners actually had more so than, you know, well,

we just assumed Josh Naylor would do that for us. Like, why? Let Josh Naylor be who he is. and who he is is a really good hitter who, you know, probably has fringe average power at first base. Awesome wants to know. Do you guys know anything about the 2027 international prospect? We are projected to sign Myron de la Rosa.

No, not really. You know, if you guys have been following us for a while when we talk about prospects, specifically international guys, you know, we try to stay as locked into that stuff as we possibly can. But, you know, we don't have the kinds of connections to really know about those guys. And obviously, we're not down there and getting to see them. Like we really don't know much about those guys other than what's written about them until they get stateside. You know, and it's just it's impossible to project what a, you know, 15 year old, 16 year old, 17 year old is going to be, you know, five years down the line.

Yeah, I'm not even going to try. You know, that said, though, you know, De La Rosa had a deal in place with the Yankees that fell through and the Bears swooped in and got that done pretty quickly. Apparently he had higher offers than what the Mariners gave him, but they, him and his agent, they just wanted to get something done with Seattle. So the Mariners are going to have two of the top three projected international free agents the next year's class, which is really cool. Now, I believe, because they're already projected to give, you know, four million dollars to Uton.

Yeah, and this, you know, De La Rosa is projected to make a 3.8, million dollars or that's what the deal is reportedly or that that's what the deal reportedly is um so i believe the barons are going to have to trade for some money at some point i think it pretty much wipes out their entire like i don't know exactly what they're their international player pool is but usually it's around eight million dollars so obviously this would eat up pretty much all of that just with these two guys so it's possible they might just have to or they might just back out of some of their own deals that they have set up already just to make sure they have the money to sign these guys. But yeah, they might have to trade for some.

And that's really not that big of a deal. You usually pick up international bonus money for like fringe 40 man guy. Like you could probably trade Cooper Chris Well, you know, at the end of spring training for, you know, 250 grand of international free agent money. So it's not a big deal to acquire that. It doesn't usually cost really any players of note. You just find a team that's going to have leftover money and like, hey, do you want to be? want this fringe major leager sure and so that's not really a big deal but yeah they're both uh euton and sorry de la rosa is that isn't it what is it yeah yeah yeah yeah my run de la rosa yeah uh they're they're both switch hitting short stops who project to stay up the middle uh so i mean that's

that's the best i can tell you and it seems by just about everybody's account these are two of the at least top five players in next year's class and the mirrors are going to get them both So you probably already knew all that, but that's my level of knowledge when it comes to international free agency. I'm not going to pretend that I know these guys. And even when we go to like rank the new class in our prospect ranks sometime next month or the month after,

it's all just based off of what other people are telling me about the guy because I can't get eyes on the player for a couple of years probably. So yeah, sorry, we're just, we're not the international free agent guys. No. So like I said, we don't really have the connections to, you know, talk about these guys too much to get enough information on these guys. But hey, if you work for the Marrars or you're a scout for the Marrars and, you know, you want to help the largest Mariners podcast in the space to educate, you know, your fan base about these guys. And, you know, you know, we at. Like you gone.

Yeah, just hit us up. We will answer more of your questions in just a moment. But first a reminder of this episode of the Locktime Marys podcast is brought to you by Fandul and the Space Needle. It's the last call for football on fan. duel one final sunday one last kickoff the final chance to get in on the action before the NFL season officially comes to a close this is super bowl 60 the hawks are in it and fan duel is making sure you're right in the middle of the action with a special offer just in time for the biggest game of the year whether you're back in the favorite riding with the underdog or building one last

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or you're just here for the deal of it all. Come take your place on the horizon for only $35 per person. Limited time offer, 21 plus only ID required. Get tickets at space needle.com minimum two required. And you're listening to the Locktime Mariners podcast. Part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. Thank you so much for making us your first listen for all things.

Mariners. And also thank you for making Lockdown the number one sports podcast network. You already live your team every day. Now take it up a level and go ad free. Join the Everydayer Club today and get locked on Mariners with no interruptions, members only Discord access, and more all for just $5 a month or $50 a year. Go to lockdown Mariners.com or check the link in the show notes to learn more. Our next question here on Mailbag Monday comes from Aiden over on our Discord.

What current Mariners prospects have the opportunity to improve their trade value most by this year's trade deadline? I think Felman-Selston That's the first guy that came to mind as well Yeah He hasn't really stayed on the field And he Hasn't been bad

But he hasn't exactly lived up to the hype Like he's still a solid I would say fringe top 100 prospect I think Keith Law had him in his top 100 today He missed baseball America's I believe Kylie McDaniels getting his out soon.

Sometime early this week. Pipeline will come out with their list. Sorry, Pipeline did come out with their list. So, yeah, it's one of those things where it's like, I think he's a fringe top 100 guy. If you can stay healthy, perform at High A. Did he finish the year at High A?

I think. Yeah. And if you finished deer in Everett. So if you can, you know, have a solid productive year at high A. If you can hit the ball with a little more authority, that would be great. And if you'd stay on the field, I think that would help quite a bit. So I think Feldman's the guy who jumps out to me is right now probably viewed more as a secondary piece than a headliner in any kind of significant trade.

And probably the guy whose stock has fallen the most in recent years just because he can't really stay on the field. He hasn't stayed on the field. And, you know, the batted ball data isn't great. it's a little concerning. It's on the ground a lot. It doesn't hit all that hard frequently. But again, he's still putting up some decent numbers for his age. He's only 20, I believe, now.

He's finally 20 years old. Yeah, yeah. If he, you know, improves the ex of Velos, gets the ball airborne a little bit more, stays on the field. I think that would go a long way to helping his trade value. Yeah, I think for, you know, more like national prospect guys, there was a lot of excitement about what he did in the Complex League.

and then he disappointed, you know, relative to expectations this past year. I mean, he still posted a 108 WRC plus and low A as a 19-year-old. You know, 285, 349, 384, you would love that slugging to be a lot higher. But overall, those numbers are not terrible. It's really just that, you know, he wasn't able to stay on the field. And, again, it was a disappointment after, you know, how much you just crushed it down in the Complex League. So I think he could take a pretty significant jump, you know,

And when we're talking about what players can improve their trade value, we're also talking about just what players can improve their prospect status in general. I would also add, you know, really any of the guys that got drafted last year. You know, again, we've talked about how the Mariners don't really have much of a middle tier. There's a pretty steep drop off from their top 12 in their farm system. Now, that's going to get a little bit better here with, you know, obviously the international guys that they just signed and the international guys that they're going to sign next year that we just talked about. but also, you know, I think this could be a big year for like Griffin Hugis,

who got drafted in the third round last year. Like, if he could actually have a pretty good year, that would start to establish that middle tier in the Maris farm system, which they really need because that helps, you know, finish off trades and all that stuff. And also just, you know, having a deeper farm system is always a good thing. Right. I mean, like keep in mind, it took less than a, well,

I guess technically a little more than one full year calendar year. for them to turn Aidan Smith and Brody Hopkins into Randy Rosemina. Those were fourth and sixth round picks. Then the next summer, after they were drafted, they were traded for an all-star quality player. So, you know, the mayors are certainly looking for a few guys to do that. And Hugis is a really good, you know, guy to candidate for that, maybe Dickerson as well.

And I do think Gerangelo Sanger has an opportunity to raise his stock quite a bit. I mean, I know like a lot of people seem like totally out on San Francisco. I'm not quite sure why he was fine last year, and especially more than fine if you just look at him as a right-handed pitcher. So we'll see how much he does the switch pitching thing still throughout the year. But if he really hones in, gets a little more value out of the breaking ball, cuts down on the walks a little bit, and maintains the swing and miss stuff that he had last year, teams are going to look at him as a number three starter who is major league ready or close to it by the trade

deadline, and that is going to fetch you quite a bit if you do decide to trade. Right now, I think teams are a little bit, you know, not sure about the strike throwing. They're not sure about the breaking ball right now. But he's a really good athlete who throws enough strikes as things said. And again, when you take out his numbers as a left-handed pitcher where he's just not a major league quality lefty, he was really good last year. So I think St. He's underrated by fans right now. I think he's probably, I think he'd probably be a headliner if your secondary piece is good.

I think if Felon is a secondary piece, then Sanja could be a headliner to a fairly significant trade. So, yeah, if he takes those steps by this winter, I mean, or by this summer, Sanja could be, you know, top 50-ish prospect and be a guy who land you, you know, an all-star. or maybe even a half a year of like a, I don't say MVP candidate, but like, I don't know, could Sanja headline a Terrick Scoobel trade this summer? Maybe. I mean, it would take quite a leap to get that far, but you know what I'm talking about. Like that type of player where you're like, wow, they're really going for it.

And they're trading Sanja. Like, yeah, I think Sanja and Felon are the two guys that jump out immediately. Yeah, another guy that I would throw on there, Teddy McGrath, who seems to be finally healthy, you know, should be in line for his. first full season of pro ball. It's a guy that has a lot of upside. And I think maybe with some trades and some graduations, he could challenge for, you know, top 10 placement in the Mariners Farm

system by years end if he doesn't get traded himself. But if, you know, if he does take that next, you know, step and stays healthy and does kind of what I think he can do, then, you know, that, again, kind of establishes that middle tier. And, you know, then he becomes like an actual real intriguing, you know, second or third piece in a trade. Yeah. One more name to throw in there. I think there's a chance that Christian Little becomes a guy who is like, get you a surprisingly good. Maybe it's just like a really solid seventh, eighth inning bullpen arm with a couple years of control.

Or it's that platoon, the strong-side platoon guy you need at second base, like in the summer on a rental deal. I don't think he's going to be the headliner for an all-star, but I think he could be a headliner for like a really solid. Justin Turner type of guy is Christian Little, who's got a really good fastball and, you know, good size. He just kind of needs a breaking ball. And if he finds a breaking ball this year, he's only 22. He finds a breaking ball. He's going to start the year at Everett. I think he's got a shot to be like one of those guys that we get to our July re-ranks.

And even after the draft class comes in, we're going to be like, oh, yeah, Christian Little's top 15. But we'll see. I mean, he's been a name for a long time in prospect circles, pretty much since. he was a teenager and just hasn't really ever put it all together. And, you know, maybe this is the summer he does. And you're listening to the Locktime Marreras podcast, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. As always, if you want to hear from me and Colby even more and help support the show,

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We also talked about the Seahawks in there last night. There's music discussion, video game discussion. We got, you know, a little over 200 people in there. It's a good time. So if you want to come. Yeah. Yeah. If you want to come join us, join the book club, all that stuff.

Hit the link in the description of this episode. Adam wants to know is it time to entertain trading Logan Gubb. Gilbert or George Kirby to upgrade offense with Kate Anderson and Gerangelo potentially knocking on the door soon. Dunning or Chriswell, etc. could fill in the fifth role in the meantime. Not yet. For who? Yeah, that's the other thing too.

That's what it ultimately comes down to is for who, especially at this point in the game where most teams have their rosters pretty much set. They're not really looking to shift things around too much. Now, obviously, there would be interest in Logan Gilbert or George Curry, but also we talked about this specifically with major leagher for major league trades for the marries because that's what they would be looking for here if they're trading Logan guber or George Kirby how much is your team actually better at the end of that trade

is it even better is it even better so I don't think that's the route that they should take I don't think that's a route that they really can take at this point in the off season I think if you're the mariner specifically if you were going to go that route, you need to do that early so that you had time to kind of like, hey, we got this for Logan. Okay, we should probably go get a vet here or a vet here to kind of. And right now you're just running out of time to bring those guys in.

Yeah, right now. That's a thing that starts at the GM medians and then you hammer it out like around the windings and you get it down in December. That's on point. I mean, you're not the brewers, right? Like you have to have, you know, those trades figured out early so that you have time to go and fill those holes elsewhere. And, you know, again, especially right now, you're also not the brewers in the case that Logan has another year.

So there's no rush to it. You can still, and based on what the brewers just got for Peralta, yeah, you might as well go with Logan in 2026. And, you know, even if you do end up trading him next winter, you kind of know about what you're going to get, give or take. It's a pretty good return. And so, yeah, I think it's worth the risk. So I don't see any reason to do with Logan. And then right now with George, I don't think you're going to get significantly more if you traded him today than he'd be. you traded him a year from now.

Yeah. Yeah, the obvious key difference between the, the brewers and the merrers, the brewers running up against the clock. They clearly had no interest in paying Freddie Peralta only $8 million, which is insane. Or paying him, you know, moving, you know, and paying him beyond this year. So they wanted to train him. Because the Brewers are actually a mid-market team and the Mariners like to pretend that they are or that they should be.

But, yeah. Yeah, but again, you know, the barons, they're not running up against the clock with Logan or George right now. So yeah, no reason for them to do it for that reason either. So yeah, there's just no, I just, I don't really see the justification. Like, I don't see a route that you can take to justify trading one of those guys right now. I think next winter is the year you seriously consider it. Because, again, at that point, you probably have a really good idea whether you can get Logan to assign an extension or not.

And if he's not showing any willingness, I think you have to be open to trading him next winter. George again because you have an extra year of club control with him. Next year, next winter is when his value will be max. Well, I guess technically this deadline, his value would be max. Assuming he's healthy and he's pitching well, of course. But you would hope that you're in the playoff race this summer, and so you're not going to trade him this summer. But yeah, I think next winter.

And by the way, did it like, well, Kate Anderson and St. You should be ready. I mean, maybe you hope. It's not a bad bet, but it's still a gamble. Anderson feels a lot more likely than Sanjo Right and so yeah I don't think this is the right time I think next winter is the right time to do it If you're gonna do it this winter at all you needed to do it two months ago

Yeah if they if they did it now or like you know in a week or whatever My reaction would be oh they're panicking and they just did that so they could just do something Yeah so again you know based on what Peralta just got I'm more than comfortable hanging on to Logan Gilbert trying to get an extension done And then if I can't then we get to next one winter and it doesn't feel like anything's going to happen. I'll start shopping them. But right now I don't really, and at that point, by the way, I should have a good feel for

where Anderson is, where Sanjay is, heck, where Ryan Sloan is, you know, making even more comfortable in trading them, knowing that those guys, instead of just being like, well, I think those guys could be big league ready at some point this year. Well, I'd rather know that they're big league ready. Yeah, I feel pretty confident that Anderson will have some major league seasoning under his belt by that point, maybe Sanja as well. obviously that might take some injuries and stuff like that to happen but sure you know next slow might finish the year you know there's there's a non zero i would say there's

like a 10% chance that we get to september and we're like do you call up ryan sloan and stick him in the bullpen for the playoff run yeah maybe sloan to use an industry term has a lot of helium right now yeah and so maybe but no i i think next one winters is the winter you really entertain it? Last question of the day comes from John. Rumors of the Red Sox being in on Paratus and Gino. They are in an extremely similar boat to us with needing either a third baseman or second basement and they prefer a right-hand hitter.

What are the chances they make a splash and then all of a sudden Romney Gonzalez is available. He could platoon with Young at second base. Three platoons wouldn't be ideal, but honestly I wouldn't hate it. Romney or Young can play third base in a pinch of JP needs a day off and everything can slide over to shortstop. I think the Red Sox would just keep Romney in the role that he's been and for them for the most part over the last couple years.

They would just have a full-time second basement or third basement and then they would have a platoon with Romney and whoever, you know, David Hamilton or whoever it is. So yeah, I think they would just keep them. I don't think they'd make him available. Also, if you're the Mariners and you're just kind of looking for like, I need a guy who is okay against lefties and can handle an infield position. and pairs well with one of my young guys,

you could just sign Eureas for like three and a half million bucks and at least have some kind of like safety net there. Ramon, that is right. Yeah, I guess Luis is a free agent too. But yeah, Ramon is who I'm talking. I don't think he'll go down to Luis route again. No, no.

Although at this point I might take it. Definitely above the Leotie line. By the way, we should have a channel in the Discord that's just like terms that we like, you know, boss or. of our terms. Yeah, we should explain the laity line to the people watching real quick. The laoti line for laity Tavaris is the line that we use to determine if an acquisition

is actually worth doing an emergency podcast for or not. Andrew Kisner did not cross the laity line. Although now I kind of regret that it didn't. Based on the lack of activity. Ref Schneider did cross the leone line. You don't have to cross. You had to meet the line or be above it. Yeah.

Yeah, the Dane Dunning and the Cooper Chriswell did not quite hit the Leoti line. But yeah, to answer your question about Romay Gonzalez, I don't think they're trading him. I don't think the Red Sox would trade him. I think he would just go back into the role that he's been serving in for, you know, the last couple of years for the Red Sox and that'll be about it. I like him, though. You know, if he is available, I would love for the Marrars to, you know, stiff around on that. But, yeah, I just don't.

They've got the Leotie line. Definitely above the Leotie line. Yeah, Romney-Gonzol. It's a really good player in 2025. I mean, so is David Hamilton. He's not a good player, but he's above the Leoti line. Again, the Leotie line, by the way, it moves up and down based on recent activity. Yeah.

Yeah. He doesn't go as low as Chris well, but, you know, it's getting there. Yeah, like fringe, like 40-man moves don't count, and then, like, minor league deals don't really count. Unless it's like, like, I guess if Thai France or Paul C. Well, it's not a minor league deal, we would probably do just because they have like name recognition. Sure. Sure. By the way, let's get Paul done.

Where's Tom Murphy on the minor league deal? Right. Let's get some of this stuff done. All right. That is going to do it for our show. Thank you so much for joining us here on the lockdown era's podcast. Part of the lockdown podcast network, you are team every day. And once again, if you never miss an episode, it's time to make it official.

the Lockdown Every Day or Club and get ad-free audio, access to our members-only Discord, and more, all built for our most loyal fans. For Colby Pat Note, I'm Tiding-Nazales. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at LO underscore Marrers. You can follow me at Tad-E-N-A-L-EG-T-1-1. We're also on Blue Sky. You can follow me at TDG, Colby at MLB-Colby, and the show at Lockdown Merrers. You can also find us on Instagram at Lockdown Marrars.

Have yourself a beautiful baseball day, and we'll see you next time. Peace.