Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Dominic Canzone Could MAJORLY Influence the Seattle Mariners' 2026 Season

Episode Date: March 18, 2026

Ty and Colby identify six players who could have the biggest influence in determining how good (or disappointing) the Mariners will be in 2026.  Vote for Round 4 of our Top 50 Mariners Moments Tournament! Click to learn more about the Everydayer Club! Join the Ahoy, Sailors Discord server! Check out our Patreon! Follow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @TyDaneGonzalez | @CPat11 Follow the show on Bluesky: @lockedonmariners | @tdg | @mlbcolby Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors! PlayStation This episode of is brought to you by MLB The Show 26. Visit mlbtheshow.com/lockedon and use code “LOCKEDON” to unlock a pack for use in Diamond Dynasty. Pre-Order now, Available March 17th on PlayStation 5, Xbox, and Nintendo Switch. RATED E FOR EVERYONE. Turbo Tax For a limited time, you can have your taxes done by a local TurboTax expert for just $150 — all in, if a TurboTax expert didn’t file for you last year. Just file by February 28. Take taxes off your plate and get back to your life.  Visit https://TurboTax.com/local to book your appointment today.  Robinhood You’re no longer just a spectator. Play by play. You decide. Trade Every Play with Robinhood. Now available across the U.S. Download the Robinhood app now to begin. Futures and cleared swaps trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Event contracts are offered by Robinhood Derivatives, LLC., a registered futures commission merchant and swap firm. Indeed Listeners of this show get a $75 Sponsored Job Credit to help give your job the premium placement it deserves at http://Indeed.com/podcast Gametime Today's episode is brought to you by Gametime. Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONfor $20 off your first purchase. Terms and conditions apply. FanDuel FanDuel is giving you a way to turn that energy into even bigger potential wins with a College Basketball Parlay Profit Boost.Visit https://FANDUEL.COMto get started — Play Your Game.   FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

These players have the greatest ability to swing the Mariners season in one direction or another. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Ahoy, Sailors, it is Wednesday, March 18th, 2026. You're listening to the Lockdown Marys podcast, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day.

My name is Tadning Azales, and I'm joined, as always, by my co-cove-Colby Patnode. Today's episode is brought to you by M-LIN. be the show 26 visit m lb t h a show slash locked on and use the promo code locked on that's l o c ed o nb to unlock a pack for use in diamond dynasty available now on playstation five xbox and nintendo switch rated e for everyone and today we're talking all about swing players now colby what is a swing player yeah so it's a little difficult uh to explain but i think you guys will get the idea once we start talking about it but essentially a swing player is a player who has a wider variance of possibilities than most other players. And if they reach either end of their spectrum for what they can do, it'll either greatly impact the team in a positive or negative manner.

So, you know, a swing player is a guy who if he had, if he hits at his 100th percentile or whatever, like the Mariners can ascend the next level. they go from World Series favorites to like the favorite in the ale or whatever right and it swings the other way too they're really bad you know things could get dicey because you know the Mariners built their roster with the expectation that this player is going to be good or you know at least average and they don't really have great answers so swing player is you know just kind of a player who has a lower floor than you would like but a higher ceiling perhaps uh it's It's kind of similar to a breakout player or it's also, it's kind of like a breakout player and a regression list.

Like we're trying to find the middle ground and see where we can, uh, you know, see how they can swing the Mariners season, both good and bad. So it's a little bit of a, of a tricky thing to explain, but like there are certain players who are so consistent that they don't

really classify as a swing player. Like to me, Brian Wu is, is so consistent that like, I don't know that he's a big swing player now. Could you be a slight swing player? Sure because you know what if he goes 200 innings this year or whatever then like that would obviously help. Sure and obviously like Julio and Cal are obviously significant swing swing swing cliff or they get hurt that's

obviously going to swing the merriss season in a very negative. Injuries aren't a factor though in swing player list because those could happen to anybody and like I wouldn't think you know Julio could boom and be a 10 one player this year and that would significantly swing the merri season in a positive way. But it's just a little but those two guys are like really on the nose for this exercise. We're trying to get deeper into our bag here, really is the point of the exercise. Right.

I mean, again, superstars are always swing players just by like the nature. And you build your team around those guys being elite players. And if they aren't, then yeah, you're going to be in trouble. But, you know,

these are players who maybe are under the radar guys who, if they aren't what you hope they are, then the team might be, be in a little bit of trouble or if they're a little bit more than you thought they were, we could be having different conversations about what the ceiling of this team is, and the ceiling of this team is already pretty high. So, but yeah, I mean, it's, you guys will, if I didn't explain it well, you'll get it as a move along. Just for the record, I don't have Cal or Julio on this list just because that's boring.

And obviously, there's swing players and obviously, Julio, there's another step you can take. Obviously, Cal is going to regress some, you know, at the very least. So I think we know and understand that those two players can swing the season more than anybody else. So the first guy that I have my eye on here is kind of a, he's on the fringe of just kind of being too on the nose, being too consistent to really make this list. But because he had a down year in 2024, because we don't know if he's going to be on the opening day roster, I think he actually kind of fits fairly well for this list. that's JP Crawford, right? Because we're going to put this to the test very early on, potentially. Like he might not make the opening day roster.

What does this club look like without him? What do they look like once they get him back? And how is the time off from, you know, the lack of spring training reps? How is a potential IL stint going to impact him, if at all, over the course of 2026. And again, you know, 2023, he had a career year where you put up a 136 WRC plus, 2024, he put up a 90 WRC plus. He had a very bad year that year, but somehow actually had a pretty good year defensively.

And then 2025, the defense progressed again, but he found middle ground, exactly the middle ground offensively with a 113 WRC plus, splitting the difference between his previous two seasons. So where is JP ultimately going to wind up? That's kind of my question here. And it does feel like with what we've seen on the defense, for the most part over the last few years,

2024, notwithstanding, that the bat has to play in order for JP to be valuable. And I do feel good about the bat playing, especially at the bottom of the lineup. But is he going to be a one and a half win player? Is he going to be a three-win player again like he was last year? Could he be more than that? I feel like there are a bunch of different avenues

that we could go down here with JP potentially in 2026, especially in his contract year. Again, like we talked about at the beginning, injuries don't really factor into this, but when we talk, J.P. Crawford, he's already currently hurt. So, well, banged up, let's say. He's back in camp. If you guys missed that update, he's back in camp. He had some kind of injection.

I believe it's the same thing that Bryce Miller got put in his elbow, and they feel like that's going to help him. And if something flares up, they could just do another injection and all that. But we'll see where JP's at in a couple days. and then the Mariners are going to have to make a decision on whether or not he will have had enough reps and enough, you know, at-bats to, you know, be on the opening day roster if he needs to start the year on the IL. So we'll see how that goes for him. But, yeah, I think J.P. Crawford, there's some swing player element there. But to me, I just feel like he's going to factor in somewhere between two to three wins.

And that's just kind of, that's really not much of a variance to me. But, yeah, if he's hurt and he misses, you know, a good chunk of the year, this shoulder thing bothers him. him throughout the year, then yeah, there's a possibility that this doesn't go well for him. So we have to keep an eye on that. Yeah, I do think there is some variance just because of that. And again, because of how different each of the last three seasons have been, specifically, you know, on the office side of things. What if his war has been the last three years, though?

His war, let me pull that back out. Is that, like a 4-9? So, yeah, 4-9 and 23, 1-6 in 20-24, and then 2-8 this past year. middle. Yeah. 2020. Yeah, 2020. 2025 was literally like the perfect split down the middle of his. Yeah, 136, 136 WRC plus in 223, 90 in 2024. What's the median of that? 113. So yeah. All right. So I've got one that's a little more. Not even really boom or bust, but how about Jose Ferrer? The Mariners needed to address their bullpen this winter. And they really didn't.

outside of Ferrer. And they specifically mentioned they know they needed a high leverage bullpen arm. They've consistently said that Ferrer is that guy. However, when you look at the numbers overall last year, they don't exactly scream high leverage. And so the Mariners are banking quite a bit on this guy with a bullpen, by the way, that was largely overused last year, especially Bizarro. And Spire really kind of fell off towards in the last year, too. Spire could also be on this list, by the way.

But Ferrer is kind of the piece that the merits have claimed that this is our missing piece in the bullpen. This is the extra high leverage guy we need. He's the second lefty. He can miss more bats than he has. And if he doesn't, if he is just kind of what he was last year, which is a good reliever, but not a high leverage guy, not somebody you feel great about second half of U.S. high leverage, but whatever. If it's a high four or low four ERA and he's not missing, you know, not striking out 10 dudes per nine. and whatever.

If he doesn't take that next step, then the Mariners are going to be in a position where they really need a bullpen arm. Now, bullpen arm swing players, you know, there's only so, like even elite bullpen arms,

there's only so many wins they can actually help you get. So this is why he's towards the bottom of my list, because at the end of the day, he's a bullpen arm. He's not, you know, a shortstop or whatever.

He's not an everyday player. So, but yeah, Ferreira, I think, is a player who the Mariners are banking a lot on. And they're banking on him, taking a step that he hasn't really taken over the course of a full season.

And they've built out their roster with the idea that he is a high leverage arm, that he is, you know, to borrow a term from earlier in the offseason, that he is a daddy. And right now it's maybe he's a dog. We don't really know quite yet. He was the dog. He was a dog in the second half of last year, but the first half, not so much. So we'll have to see how it goes.

But yeah, I think Ferrer, if he does take that step and he is what the mayor's think he is, assuming relative health and production from the other four guys, the Mariners have one of the deepest bullpins in baseball. If he's not, they're right back to where they started last year, which not great. Pretty much anybody in this bullpen could be a, you know, a swing player. Matt Brash, getting back to, you know, what he was and getting healthy and getting back to what he was in 2024 or whatever, 23. Yeah. I mean, before he got hurt. Like that, that's a swing player too. Yeah. I mean, like, let's just address it now. you know, like you can pick any of these guys.

I guess Edward Bizarro would be the other guy that I would point to here in the bullpen just after all the innings that he threw last year, you know, it was like 90 when you combine his postseason and regular season numbers. You know, he pitched in the WBC. He just pitched on back-to-back days on the WBC. And congratulations to him on taking gold. But, you know, there's obviously going to be concerned about that because he's only done it once. He threw a ton of innings last year.

They asked so much of him. over the course of the season in 2025. Sure. Hopefully the presence of Ferreira of someone like Ferreira and maybe hopefully someone like Zuluetta or Carlos Vargas takes another step and maybe takes more pressure off of and more responsibility off of Bizarro's shoulders and some of the other guys in this bullpen as well.

But yeah, Bizarro I think is the other guy that if we're going to talk about and again, you can talk about really any of these guys on the bullpen. But if we're going to talk about other bullpen guys, I think you got to start with Bizarro. I think so too. And I think Spire would be second on that list. Just because he wore down last year. Home run started to become a bit of a problem for him.

And he also didn't have a very good 2024. He was banged up for most of that season. But, you know, he bounced back and had a great 2025. So really anybody in the bullpen, except for Munoz works. Because, I mean, how much better can Munoz really get? You know, and you don't trust relievers until they do it back to back. Well, Munoz has done it like four years in a row. So I feel like he just kind of have to accept Munoz for who he is.

And like, it's really good and it's great. And then sometimes it's elite and sometimes it's only really good. And there's just not much variance between that. So, but yeah, pretty much anybody in the bullpen is always a swing player. I mean, bullpins are volatile. So it's almost kind of cheating when talking about swing players and talking about them specifically as swing players. We'll go over our next couple swing players in just a moment. But first we're right here this episode of the lockdown airs podcast is brought to you by Fandul and indeed.

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of our top 50 Mariners Moments tournament. How's that going so far, Chloe? About as well as you would expect. not that many upsets. Again, there's only four matchups. And really, when you get to the lead eight, there are no upsets. There's no more Cinderella's left. Cinderella's left in our bracket pool.

They're all 10 seats. Yeah, I mean, they're all. I mean, it's eight teams left. And I think the lowest seat is like the 10 seats. Nine. I think it's nine. Yeah, nine. Yeah.

So, yeah, but it's about as you would expect, really no surprises, including the fact that the, four or five matchup of Gino's Grand Slam versus Polos walk off single in game 15 or in game five of inning 15 it's pretty close to a 50-50 tie right now but the other matchups, about as you would expect.

So I don't think there's going to be too many surprises but like there has been in every single round there is still one matchup that is at least one matchup that is very much up for grabs. So make sure you guys vote and we'll see where that all ends up. But yeah, it looks like we're going to have three every round we've had at least one matchup be decided by one and a half percent or less

which is kind of insane yeah that's crazy all right so getting back into our swing players for the 2026 mariners i think the guy that perfectly fits this exercise is dominant can zone what is dominant can zone going to be in 26 we talked about this all off season right i don't think he's going to be a 300 hitter like he was in 2025 would love to to be proven wrong on that. But again, we got 268 plate appearances that say that he's a 141 WRC plus hitter. And then we've got, you know, about 300 or so played appearances that I don't want to do the math right off the top of my head right now that say that he's, you know, an 84 WRC plus. So what's the answer here?

Who is Dom Kanzone? and if he's closer to the guy that he was in 2025, even if he's just 75% of the guy that he was in 2025, that's a big boost for this Mariners lineup that has lost considerable power in the middle of it with the departures of Jorge Polanco and AUNIOSuras. Dom Canzon can be a big part of making up for that as well as pushing Randy a Rosarana down into the middle of the lineup as well.

But yeah, I mean, Canzone, I think he's kind of the poster boy for this exercise this time around. Yeah, I mean, especially considering like the backup plan or the, you know, the emergency rip court are also two players who very easily also classify as swing players and Luke Rayleigh and Victor Robles. Because obviously, you know, 2024 was a great year for both of those guys, 2025. Mostly, most both of those guys had their, most of their seasons, you know, ripped apart by injury. And so that they didn't perform. And so obviously, either of those guys get back to 20, 24 levels. Now we're talking about the Mariners

outfield being, you know, one of its strengths and without really any question marks to it. And Canzone also factors into that. So, and obviously Canzone factors into the DH spot, which was, you know, handled heavily by Horace Polanco had a great year last year. So it's kind of one of those things where, you know, it is, Canzone is kind of the perfect player for this, but also

when we talk about, well, there's, swing player because, you know, the org set up their roster in such a way that you're kind of counting on this guy to be good. Well, they did, but they, like, their entire right field D.H is all swing players. And so, you know, we talked about this. Like, Robles is definitely a swing player, although I would say he's less so than Rayleigh, because at least Rayleigh's had a couple good years at the plate to kind of back him up as, as this guy is, this is the real guy, not the guy who was hurt last year. Robles, 2024 is such an outlier.

I think we know that. I don't think, I think if you're not willing to accept that, I think you're lying to yourself. And, I mean, that's fine. It's baseball. It's not that big of a deal. But yeah, I think Canzone is kind of the poster child for the swing player this year,

although there's another one in the infield that also represents this list. And that's Cole Young. So, Coal Young's certainly a swing player. The Mariners are not necessarily banking a lot. And again, the good news is that, like, if Cole Young can't do it, they can just move Donovan right back over to second, and they can try it with Emerson at third, or Leo Rivas can play second.

Like, they have some depth there, especially if JP's going to be okay. So, but Cole Young, we saw what he did last year for six weeks. You know, he was top three or four second baseman in all of baseball. for three weeks he was unplayable and for the other three weeks he was only okay so we've seen the variance here we know that Cole Young is a former top prospect we know that he has flashed big time and again not just for a game or two at a time but for weeks at a time we know that there were some problems that they did last year he really wore down he admitted that he wore down and

you look at what he did this year he went out there he put in the work this offseason players and coaches have raved about the transformation and all that. He looks great defensively so far this spring. And after a slow start, he's been absolutely crushing the baseball. If Cole Young is what the Mariners think he could be or think he thought he could be when they drafted him, if he could be that this year at 22 years old, that changes a lot of the calculus because now you have a middle infielder who's going to be a well above average hitter. and that lineup gets deeper and deeper and deeper and all of a sudden you have that one through nine that is is terribly troubling and oh by the way cole young's got i mean tremendous pop in the

bad and you can hit for average you get for power he could be an above average defensive player like cole young's ceiling is like a all-star right and his floor is how do we replace this guy in the lineup because he's kind of a black hole right now and and so that's very swing player like and obviously you know unlike Canzone they have like proven major league options behind him that you're not counting on a bounce back year from

but yeah I think Cole Young is if you know Canzone's the poster child of the swing player this year I think I think Cole Young is probably the number two guy right behind him yeah obviously and like depending on what he does this year that will significantly

change how the merits are going to approach the trade deadline because right now we just have to you know look a few months ahead kind of feels like if the mayor is going to have to make a big swing on their roster at the trade deadline

it would be for an up-the-middle player or maybe for a third basement and then he moved Brendan Donovan to second base right but that's like the real that's like the one big like danger because even though that I have questions about a can zone and I have questions about Rayleigh

and I have questions about Robles I do think right field will figure itself out and at the end of the day if it doesn't you know, we've talked about this. Finding corner outfield help is it's one of the easiest things to do mid-season. It's one of the easiest things to accomplish at the trade deadline.

Whereas finding someone up the middle or finding someone at third base, as we saw last year, very difficult. Because there just aren't going to be that many options. Thankfully, last year they were able to get really the only option that was possible for them. But, you know, that might not be the case, you know, this summer.

And, you know, it just might not work out where The teams that wind up selling actually have an up-the-middle player that the Marers want to actually trade significant pieces for that they feel is actually going to be a significant enough upgrade. So Cole Young being good, just being usable, frankly, would do a lot for this team moving forward. And obviously there's the Colt Emerson of it all, but I don't really count him as a swing player here because it's really, he can only just swing the team in a positive direction.

Like if Colt Emerson comes up and he's bad, like that doesn't really do anything for the outlook of the 2026 Marriers in my mind. No, I mean, again, if they didn't get Donovan Emerson would be the poster child of the swing. Everything probably would have been the first guy that we mentioned today. Yeah. But because

they have, for now, JP, because they have Leo, because they have Donovan, because they have, you know, Cole Young, although he's certainly at the bottom of that list. Like, they've set themselves up that where anything Emerson gives you is really a bonus. And because we're

doing this exercise with the assumption of normal health luck. Like the only way Emerson becomes a big swing player is if, you know, JP tears his shoulder trying to swing or something and he's out for the year. And now all of a sudden, Emerson's a shortstop. At that point, he becomes the number one swing player. But the way things are right now would, again, factoring in just normal injury luck.

Yeah, he's a bonus, purely a bonus, not a player that you absolutely have to get something from. Whereas Cole Young and Don Quentin's own, you kind of, you kind of set your roster up to where you need them to give you a little something or at the very least if they don't you know it's it can get a little touch and go if they're not you know quality major leaguers all right we're going to get into the mariners rotation as we continue to identify the swing players on the 2026 mariners but first a reminder of this episode of the lockdown marries podcast is brought to you by game time and MLB the show 26

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Visit MLBT.e. dot show slash locked on and use the promo code Locked On, that's LOC, KED On, to unlock a pack for use in Diamond Dynasty. Internet connection required. Available now on PlayStation 5, Xbox Series S&X, and Nintendo Switch, rated E for everyone. And you're listening to the Locktime Airs podcast, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network,

your team every day. As always, if you want to hear from me and Colby even more and help support the show, we have a Patreon. It's called Control the Zone. And on there we talk, Mariner's Seahawks, all that good stuff. For more information, go to Patreon.com forward slash control the zone. Link in the description of this episode. So when we talk about the Mariners rotation, I'm talking about swing players and the Mariners rotation, I think the guy that that comes to mind is Bryce Miller, right? He's the guy that most stands out here after the way that 2025 went for him. but I want to go in a different direction. Would it be fair to say that Logan Gilbert is a swing player in 2026? It's funny. You've mentioned two players, and I don't think either one of them is the biggest swing player in the rotation. Yeah, interesting. But yeah, I think it's fair because Logan is, again,

he had a good year last year, but he didn't get deep into ball games, and we know what kind of strain that put on the on the bullpen and all of that so can you find a way to kind of go the 200 endings that you did last year or close or 2024 or close to it at least while maintaining most of your strikeout gains like yes hopefully and if you can do that then you're a sly young candidate like a legitimate sion candidate not somebody who's you know fringe top 10 so just one of those things where it's like look Logan last year he missed what 10 starts giving take. So maybe seven or eight starts, but whatever, right? That cost him 35, 40 innings, but, you know, the fact that it didn't cost him, you know, 50 innings is kind of a problem because we talked a lot about this last year. We talked about it this offseason.

The strain Logan Gilbert puts on your bullpen when he's only going five and a third versus when he's going seven regularly. That's where a lot of those extra innings come from, from Bizarro and all them. So if he can do that, if he can maintain the swing and miss stuff he had last year or come close to it, while also throwing, you know, 190 to 210 innings like you did a couple of years ago, then, yeah, all of a sudden you have legitimate co-aices at the top of your lineup. Now, I don't mean like major league aces, but you guys know what I'm talking about. You have like legitimate number ones in Logan and Brian Wu.

Whereas last year, Logan, it's just tough to classify what he did because, again, the workload wasn't. not good. And Logan's supposed to be a horse and he's supposed to be the guy in this rotation. Him and Castillo are supposed to be the dependable ones who go six or seven innings every single time, regardless of how well they pitch, they figure it out. So the fact that he didn't do that last year and we know he's fully capable of it, I think, yeah, he has to classify as a swing player. And then Bryce Miller is a swing player for the same reason, you know, Luke Rayleigh and, well, mostly just Luke Rayleigh is because we know when he's healthy, he's good. He wasn't healthy last year. And he's not 100,

percent healthy right now. So there's kind of that whole variance built. Thankfully, it's not the arm. And he did throw a full, well, not a full intent bullpen. He threw at 80 percent or something. Yeah. So again, it doesn't seem like that's going to be a long term thing. But 2024, Bryce Miller versus 2025 Bryce Miller. That's the difference between a number three and, you know, a number six. So, I mean, yeah, and then we started to see that guy, you know, we started to see that 2024 Bryce a little bit in the, in the playoffs. still wasn't exactly that guy. No. So it's been a while since we've seen Bryce at his peak.

And really the question is, can you get back there? Yes. And is that possible for him, you know, now having dealt with this oblique thing and missing that ramp up time, missing being on schedule with your ramp up and all that. Like it does have, it can have a negative impact on you. And so obviously, yeah, with Bryce, like, you know, you do have to worry about that if he can actually, you know, get back to being that guy. despite having, you know, some of these things happen in the buildup to the season. You know, going back to Logan, though, you know, it might feel unfair to some to, you know, put this on Logan.

But look, you know, not being able to get deep into games when you're supposed to be the ace of the staff, it has a trickle down effect. It has a major trickle down effect. It puts strain on your bullpen, like you said. It also puts strain on the other four guys in your rotation to kind of make up for that. You know, it puts strain on your manager. It puts strain on your team as a whole. And it, and it doesn't just impact the game.

games that you pitch in. And yeah, that's why I think Logan is kind of the perfect example of a swing player specifically going into 2026 after the way that is 2025 what. I mean, if you're going to be looking for $200 million, you know, you can't be a five and fly guy. It just doesn't work. Like the Mariners would be stupid to give Logan Gilbert $200 million if he's going to throw 100 pitches to get through five innings. The wear and tear and the strain that puts on everybody else under pitching. staff like you mentioned and the difficult position it puts managers and pitching coaches in, that's just a headache that's not worth $200 million.

I mean, go five innings and strike out 11 every night. Cool. You still have to cover four innings. You know, so it's just a strain that is not warranted. And Logan's looking to get paid. If Logan wants to get paid like he thinks he should and he probably should, he needs to, you know, go 180 innings or 180 to 200 innings. that that's what guys who make $200 million are going to do

or they're going to be Jacob deGrom and go, you know, incredible for three years and then never throw more than like 110 innings, but whatever. So, yeah, but again, like I said, at the beginning, I don't think either of these guys are the big swing players in the rotation. I think it's George Kirby. Yeah. Crazy.

I think it's short. I think it's George Kirby. I think aside from Julio, the player who could make the biggest leap in like war is is Kirby because we know who this guy is he's good you know we know the floor is he's good assuming he's healthy and obviously he wasn't healthy last year but this is a guy who regularly goes deep into ball games we see him at times look like the best pitcher in baseball usually when he's facing the angel so you know caveat there but yeah like there is a possibility however remote, even though I'm not going to predict it.

But there is a possibility that Kirby can finally put it all together, go out there and have his Cy Young season. And when you look at the swing and miss, when you look at the walks, when you look at him at his absolute best, he's a seven-win starting pitcher. And that's extremely rare. Like that is not something that just grows on a tree.

And what we've seen from Kirby is a good solid three-win to four-win pitcher. he has another gear. We've seen it in spurts. We've seen him blow up as well. So there's a big degree of variance there. Is he going to be a low four ERA guy, strike out more dudes, walk a couple more, but still have really good control and command like he was last year? Is he going to be, you know, not strike out as many guys, but go seven, eight innings fairly regularly and just dominate and get a ton of ground balls and have a little pitch count and walk nobody? And we've seen him do that. Can he blend the two? two things together. Because if he can get that more, if you can get more swing and miss, if he can, you know, be efficient still and avoid the big blowup starts, there is a legitimate Sy Young case to be made for George Kirby. Again, do I think it's going to happen? No, I've kind

of given up on that. I think George is who he is at this point. But does that mean that that possibility doesn't exist? No, of course it does. George, we've seen it. We've seen it for, you know, a handful of starts at a time. And we saw it for a handful of starts last year. And, you know, he missed his numbers a little bit inflated because he got off to a slow start after he missed all of spring training as well. But, yeah, he really dialed it in towards the end and then the playoffs, you know, not the best.

But, yeah, I do think that there is another gear left in George as well. So that makes him a swing player as well. And possibly the high ceiling of anybody on the pitching staff. but in terms of likelihood to get there, I don't think it's very high. All right. Any honorable mentions before we get out of here? I mean,

Josh Naylor kind of just because he was so good last year when he joined the Mariners. And it's just he's not going to, he was a six-win player when he joined the Mariners. Like he was worth two wins and one-third of a season. He stole 20-some-odd bases with it. Like, he's not going to steal 60 bags. He's not going to be a six-winner.

win player. He's not going to, you know, I don't think he's going to hit 300, 450, 580, or whatever it was. Ridiculous thing he did with the Mariners. I wasn't that good. But, yeah, like, he's, for the first time, we're going to see Josh Neiler struggle, like, for weeks at a time wearing a mariner's uniform. And it's not because, you know, oh, that always happens to the mergers. It's because Josh Naylor is a baseball player and that happens to every single baseball player. So we didn't, it didn't happen for two months last year. And so, you know, we don't really have that, uh, you know, that image in the back of our head. But, yeah, I mean, Naylor, can he hit 20, 25 home runs with Seattle?

Can he still manage to help you on the bases? Will the defensive improvement stick or will they regress, you know? Yeah. Josh Naylor makes some puzzling air sometimes. Just really weird. But, yeah, I still think he's going to be very good. I think he has a high floor. But last year, we saw the ceiling.

and if he can do that for, you know, or well, some proximity of that for 162 games, then, yeah, the Mariners lineup gets even scarier than it already is. So Nailer, a little bit of a swing player, just a little too high of a floor, I think, to make my list. But yeah, he certainly is somebody to watch. Is Leo Rivas a little bit of a swing player now with the JP stuff? It's tough for me to put a bench player on, because, like, if he's bad, you just replace him. But yeah, kind of. I mean, with Cole Young, you sell questions there, with J.P. Crawford, his health.

And then obviously, kind of the backup to both of those guys is Leo. But in the long term, they might go to Hancock. They might go to the other Emerson, you know, in a long-term role. Well, what if he's bad, too, at 20 years old? You know, then all of a sudden, Leo Rivas becomes incredibly important to you. But, yeah, I think, you know, bench players, that Rob Reff Snyder, like, what have Ruff Snyder's A.J. Poll like, like, I mean, that sucks. it's a blow but like you can survive that because he's only playing every you know two or three days so

I kind of look at Rivas in a similar light to Emerson or to you know what I said about Emerson earlier where it's like I feel like he could only like if we're talking about him as specifically a swing player I feel like it would be more so like he'd only do it in a positive way like if he's bad like you just replace him like you said like that's not really a huge huge deal but I do look at it as like he could potentially stabilize things. Like if JP's shoulder thing is something that kind of lingers throughout the year, you know, if Cole Young disappoints, Cole Emerson, you know, isn't able to contribute at 20 years old.

Like, could Leo maybe stabilize things at that point? I mean, he was essentially a one-one player by Fangraph standards in about 111 played appearances last year. Like, could Revis with, you know, 250, 300 player appearances? could he be like a 2-1 player all right that's going to do it for our show thank you so much for joining us here on the lockdown mirrors podcast part of the lockdown podcast that work your team every day once again if you never miss an episode it's time to make it official join the locked on every day or club and get ad free audio access to our members only discord and more all built for our most loyal fans for colby patting has alice be sure to give us a follow on twitter at l o underscore mirrors you can follow me at troyd We're also on Blue Sky. You can follow me at TDG, Colby at MLB Colby, and the show at Locked-on Mariners.

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