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Emergency Bonus Pod: Mariners Reportedly Sign A.J. Pollock

January 8, 20230 comments♥ 0
00:00The Mariners were radio silent for about a month.A month.So naturally, they made two moves on our day off.Let's talk about them.Colby, hit it.You are Locked on Mariners.Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast.Part of the Locked on podcast network.
00:18Your team every day.How's it going, everyone?It is Saturday, January 7th, 2023.This is Tadding Gonzalez and Colby Patnaud for the Lockdown Mariners podcast.Thank you.so much for making us your first listen,subscribe, like, and turn on alerts if you're watchingon YouTube, or subscribe and leave a
00:36five-star review on your preferred podcastplatform if you like what you hear. And if youwant to hear from us even more, please consider signingup for our Patreon. The link as well as our socialaccounts is in the descriptionbelow. All right, folks,it's happened. The SeattleMariners have signed a free
00:51agent. They now have their rightheaded hitting corner outfieldbat that we've been talking aboutover and over and over and over andover again on this show. We finally know who it is. According to Jeff Passon of ESPN, the SeattleMariners are in agreement on a one year $7 million contract with veteran outfielder A.J. Pollack. This ispending physical, of course. So that means that it might take a while for this to become official,but it is being reported by Passan. So you know it's probably happening. All right. So Colby,
01:26this is a guy that we've talked about a lot on this.show over the past few weeks, especially as this free agent market has continued to dwindle.And Pollock has started to make more and more and more sense for the Mariners.There was, of course, a report that came out a while ago that was linking them to him as well.And so I just want to get your first reaction on this.And we'll talk about kind of how he fits and all that.And we're also going to talk about Justin Topa, the right-handed reliever, the Marinersacquired from the Brewers.
02:00well later on in the show. But Colby, let's start with your reaction to the contract,the signing for, or the signing of A.J. Pollock.Initial reaction is this has to be the biggest move the Mariners had made this offseasonahead of even Teosker because, as we know, the only way to really improve your team is throughfree agency. You have to spend free agent dollars. It's the only way you can improve yourroster. And that's exactly what the Mariners did here. So I'm sorry, Teo, but the biggest moveof the entire offseason for the Mariners, it's actually,AJ Pollock because they gave him $7 million
02:31and that's all that really counts.There you go. That's my initial reaction.But no, in allseriousness, it's aboutit's about as good of a fit as you can possiblyget considering what was left.Pollock isa guy who, as we know, traditionally crushes
02:49lefties over the last three or four years.He's in the top 10 ofOPS against lefties. He'sright in the same range as Aaron Judgeand Randy at Rosarenaand like some really, really good bats, right-handedat bat. So he's a great compliment to Kelnick because, you know, if Kelnick falls flat on his face,you can use AJ Pollock in left field on a pretty much everyday basis for, you know,
03:13two or three months until you can address that issue at the trade deadline. But if Kelnick hits,then Pollock is the perfect compliment to him. You can take lefties off of Jared Kellnick'splate and have him just focused on hitting righties knowing that Pollock will crush lefties.And in the off chance that, you know, Kellick is really good. And Pollack is also,also playing really well. You can still D.H. Pollock or Kallnick, and you can get them both in the lineup at the same time. The move also doesn't preclude them from, doesn't preclude them from going out and still going, being aggressive on Brian Reynolds or Tyler O'Neill and getting an everyday DH or an everyday left fielder. This move doesn't prevent them from doing anything. And I think a lot of people are staring at his 22 numbers, which, you know, should carry the most weight because they are the most recent. But in 2021, he's pretty good.I haven't written down here.297, 355, 536.That's as an everyday player for Chicago in 2021 or were still the Dodgers.
04:09That was the Dodgers.Yeah.So that was playing against lefties and righties.Again, he's a guy who ideally isn't playing every day for you, but if you have to do it,you're okay.You're going to be okay.You can still catch the ball pretty well, still runs pretty well.He's definitely got power, particularly against lefties.
04:26He's just a great fit overall.He is a really,he's almost too good of a fit to the point where like we almost were like well that's not going to happenbecause Jerry doesn't go for the obvious guy he doesn't you know we talk about a guy for months andhe'll go and find somebody else we never talked about well in this case he talked about a guy thator he went out and he got a guy that we've talked about you know second or third most of theentire season he's done that he's done that quite a bit this off season actually this is uh we'veWe've kind of joked about how predictable the off season has kind of gone.
05:02And I mean, I guess that's also pretty easy when you have so much time in between movesand you start to, you know, see how the pictures coming together and all that.But the options become pretty limited at that point.But yeah, nevertheless, this is, you know, this is chalk for the Mariners, essentially.Like, this makes a lot of sense for them, especially with where the free agent market was at the time of the signing.and this is a good addition because like you mentioned, he was fantastic against lefty pitchers last year, 161 WRC Plus, 69 WRC plus against Rides, not very nice.But the year before that, however, in 2021, pretty good against Ritees as well.Good against both sides.
05:50131 WRC plus against lefties, 139 WRC plus against Ritees in 2021.just looking at the overall numbers though for Pollack in Chicago his lone year with theWhite Sox 245 to 992 389 with a 92 WRC plus he was worth half a win by fan graphs metrics18.6% strikeout rate 6.1% walk rate 14 home runs 56 RBI 3 stolen bases but that's a prettyhard regression from where he was the year prior right Colby because like going from a137 WRC plus to a 92.Kind of feels like there'sthere has to be something else going on there
06:32because I mean, you know, Pollock is,we have to mention he's 35 years old.But even then,you don't typically see guys regressthat significantly in terms of the numbers.Right. There's a pretty good chance.This is a buy low opportunitybecause Pollock has been pretty good for a while now.
06:51And 2022 looks like the outlier,not the new norm.it's entirely possible that, you know, that Pollock has just, you know,happened to hit a cliff at the exact moment.He went to the White Sox and now there's not a lot that the Mariners can do and he's notgoing to return the kind of value we're hoping.That's fine because it's a one year, $7 million deal.You can DFA this guy.
07:12You can trade this guy.There are a lot of different avenues you can take.And if he does return to his 2021 norms, this is a guy you're going to want to your lineup prettymuch every day, lefty or righty.And honestly, if he returns to 2021, he uses.a guy who you're probably going to hit in the top, you're probably going to want to hit in the top five.I'm just saying something because the top five in the Mariners lineup right now looking pretty, pretty stack.So, again, there's there's always risk in deals like this, but they're mitigated greatly when they're one-year type of deals.
07:42And what you're asking the player to be good at is something that he's been good at for his entire career, including in a year, where as you said, his overall numbers kind of went down the drain.So you're not asking him to be something he's never been.you're just asking him to be what he has always been.And if he adds more to what he did last year against Ritey's, it's a bonus.So there's very little risk to this deal.And it does have some serious upside.You know, Pollock has, can get enough at bats against lefties and righties.You'd be a two-win player.
08:10And considering, you know, what you kind of got from Jesse Winkler last year in left field,you know, it's a possibility of the Mariners get three, four wins out of that left field position.You know, depending on how Kelnick plays.Right.All right.Well, I want to talk more about how he could be placed in the lineup, how they might deploy him in general in just a moment here.But real quick, a reminder of this episode of the Lockdown Mariners podcast is brought to you by Bilt Bar.Looking for a delicious treat, but don't want all the fat and calories.
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10:01Thank you again for making us your first listen after the AJ Pollock signing.Yes.All right.So let's talk about where Pollock could fit in the lineup.You kind of talked about the upside for him in the lineup a little while.ago, but where do you think just as of now,as of today, season started tomorrow,opening day, where's
10:22AJ Pollack hitting?Assuming it'sagainst the left-handed pitcher.I think he's hittingsomewhere in the top four.I think that there's a very good chanceJulio is going to be the lead-off guygoing into the year, obviously, both
10:37against Redis and Lefties.And then the number two spot is kind of up for grabs.I think Ty France is a pretty good fit there, particularlyagainst lefties. But this is where you could,use Pollock.And I think it's probably one of those, too.And then you look at three, four, you're probably going to have Tay Oscar andGino in some order at three and four.
10:57So I think, you know, if you want to, if you want to put Ty France in the two hole,then I think Pollock probably hits fifth.I could see him hit as low as seven, both against righties and lefties,because particularly against righties, you still have Tom Murphy,who is very good.and you're probably also going to have Dylan Moore,but I would assume Dylan Moore is going to hit 9 when he's playing, period.They like to have the speed in front of Julio.
11:24So I would imagine Pollock is probably going to hit either second or fifth against left-handed pitching.If he has to take over the lion's share of the job and hit against Rides as well,I think he probably slots in no lower than seventh.I think that's probably a good spot for him.So as of now, Mariners don't do anything else.from here on out in the lineup,Pollock D.H.against Ritees and then
11:50left field against lefties andKelnick on the bench against lefties?I think primarily, yeah.Obviously, they're going to rotateguys through the D.H. So there might be daysagainst the Ritey where, you know,Cal Raleigh's going to D.H. that day and Tom Murphy's going to catchagainst the righty.
12:06You know, so I think that's probablywhat's most likely to happenis that a majority ofPollock's at bats are going to come fromleft field or DH, but they'll also probably play them in right field a little bit when they wantto give Tay Oscar that DH day. But yeah, I think primarily Pollock is going to get most of his atbats as a left field slash DH. And my guess is, is that what the Mariners would really hope is thatKelnick steals that left field job. And Pollock eventually is a bench bat who kind of cycles through
12:37the outfield against lefties and DHs on occasion. I think that's probably what they're reallyhoping. But, you know, more likely than, more likely than not, yeah, he's going to be the primaryDH if they don't make any more moves. All right. So let's talk about that. What do you think is nextfor the Mariners now that they've gotten this veteran corner outfield bet that we've been hearingabout from Jerry DePoto and those around the club. What's next? Well, well, we know they hit theirquote on free agency. So obviously they're not going to sign any more of those guys. Higher contractthe Norie Aoki.Now the bar is A.J. Pollock folks.
13:15We did it.We did it.All right.So, yeah.What do you think now?You talked about it.Obviously, this doesn't preclude them from doing that.But do you actually think that's where their focus still lies?
13:30My thing with Brian Reynolds has always been, it's a bit of a pipe dream.I just don't think that they can outbid the other teams who are interested.And that's what it's going to take.You're going to have to win a biddy more.they'll still be involved and again the caveat we always use who knows what pittsburgh likes maybethey love emerson hancock and that's enough but it seems unlikely so uh i think what you'rekind of looking at right now is i think they'd like to add kind of a dh type but i think they alsowant to have that spot potentially be open so i you know i i don't know of Nelson
14:02Cruz as much of a fit anymore um just because they kind of had their fourth four outfielders andthey want to rotate through the dh but if you're not going to trust kelnick against leftyou have to have Pollack out there againstagainst the lefties in the fieldunless you want to use Sam Haggurty, I guess, in left fieldand DHAJ Pollock, which I mean, I guess you could do that,but I still think there's room on this roster for amaybe not full-time DH, but maybe somebody who DH is four times a week
14:28and then finds the bench and you use them off, use them off the bench if you have to.Is a guy like Nelson Cruz going to be open to that because if he is,and that deal actually could make some sense.But you just look at what's out there left on the free agent market.there's not a ton in terms of obvious fits.I do think I would take Jerry at his word though that he is looking at kind of left-handedor not necessarily left-handed but corner infield bats, guys who could play third or firstif they absolutely needed to.
14:56And I think now with the additional Pollock, that bat being a left-handed bat actuallymakes a lot of sense.So I wouldn't be surprised if they go sniffing around Tommy Lestella or Michael Stochisor maybe even is Cole Cahoon still a thing?if they want a lefty pinch bat.You know, there's a leftyoutfield bat that currently playsfor the Minnesota Twins that I think would be
15:19a wonderful fit on this roster,personally speaking.Maybe do that.That would be cool.I'd be down with that.Would it?Cool with that.Yeah.
15:29You think Max Kepler makes sense still?Yeah, let's do it.Let's make it out.Teo D.H.Let's go.Yeah.I mean, that is probably the best defense.of outfield in baseball.
15:42If you're goingKellnick, Teo, and Kepler,or sorry,Kelnick Julio and Kepler,that's probably the best you can doin baseball.You know,I'd probably like a little more upside
15:54in the bat,but like we're talking aboutNelson Cruz and Tommy Famand Tommy Lestella.So like, we're not talking about like,oh, yeah, go defense over these 130WRC plus guys.No,
16:07cue all the people in the commentssaying they don't get itwith Max Kepler.I don't understand what is it that you see a Max Kepler.I see upside.That simple is that.I see a guy who's hit 35 home runs before.I see a guy who's a plus defender in right field.
16:23See a guy who's a good athlete.I see a guy who's stack cast page is bright red.I just see a guy who needs to put the ball in the air a little bit more.That's all I see.And a guy who is going to be helped, albeit not as much as some people think,he is going to be helped by the shift band or shift restrictions, we should say.that's right he is a guy he is one of those guys who will benefit a little bit from that soI like that move plus you know he's kind of making some money so if you're really desperate to
16:49move Marco or flexen I still think that's a swap that kind of makes sense so but yeah andagain I I still wouldn't be shocked if they went out and they added like Tyler O'Neill likethat wouldn't surprise me at all either so anything can happen they could be done they could gomake a couple of you know small minor league free agent signings and that type of thingbut I think they probably have one more bat in them.I just think ultimately it's going to be a left-handed infielderwho can kind of play first and third,you know,
17:20kind of protect themselves if Gino needs a dayor if Ty France goes on the IL or whatever, right?They just have a guy there because right now,if Thai France goes out for like a month,I mean, you're probably using Dylan Mooreand maybe Evan White at first base for a while.Like, or I guess Gene.But, you know, you could slide Gino over.
17:41And if you have Tommy Lestello, then Tommy Lestella could play third for a month.You know what I mean?It just, they need somebody like that.Well, I would love to say that would do it for our show.But before signing A.J. Pollock.Chills.DePoto did it again.He made his second trade of the offseason with the Milwaukee Brewers.
18:02That is acquiring right-handed reliever Justin Topa, who I definitely knew existed before today.for right-handed relief prospect Joseph Hernandez, who's actually someone that's made some waves over the last year.And it was even in, you know, discussion for potentially protecting him from the Rule 5 draft last month.That did not happen, of course.But yeah, he's now a Milwaukee brewer and Justin Topa is now a Seattle Mariner.So I'm just not going to pretend.Like, I know who Justin Toba is.I'm just going to be real with you.
18:40I have no idea who this guy is.So Colby, please help me fill the blanks.Once again, I will do the heavy lifting.Yes, thank you.No, because I also totally knew who this guy was before the deal was made.That's right.Yeah.So look, I don't have a ton on him.
19:01I did, you know, I think there is one person, though, who has some opinion on, on,Topa who we've had on the show before and it's pretty interesting stuff.Joe Doyle prospects, Prospects Live.He had some pretty interesting things to say about this move.Topa is a guy who is 31 years old.He's been around for a while, hasn't really had success in the major leagues,but we're talking about 95 to 98 mile per hour sinker and kind of a sweepy sliderthat really has some good bite.
19:35There's some good stuff here.When you look at it, I'll just read Joe's exact tweet because, again, I haven't seen him pitch, so I can't speak to this.That's me looking at Stackass and like three batters that he's faced.That's just what I saw from the three batterers I face.Here's Joe Doyle.Quote, Justin Topa is a really interesting analytic get for the Mariners.Sinker slider combo tunnels well.Sliders, true sweeper.
20:00Seattle's preferred these types of arms up to 98 with heavy sink and a deceptive three-quarter delivery.Stuff is better than his baseball card.I also added that Topa grades out unbelievably well on the pitching models, on their pitching models.So it's a stuff.It's a stuff play, right?Essentially what you're looking at is if you're Seattle, right, you feel pretty good about the floor of your bullpen right now.But you kind of need that arm that could just come out of nowhere and just jump it up to the next level.Topa is one of those guys.
20:28If you can get him to throw strikes with regularity, which has been a problem for him, you know, then you have two 70 grade pitches.is what I'm reading on fan graphs, that can play.And to me, this deal reminds me so much of a few years back when the Mariners,who was years away from the big leagues and had a little bit of hype, not as much asHernandez, but he had a little bit of hype when they took him.And he just kind of sputtered out.They flipped him in $60,000, I think, for Austin Adams, who obviously had a big year forSeattle.
21:00And then Seattle was actually able to flip Austin Adams and part of the Nola trade,which helped him land Thai France, Andres Munoz,Taylor Tremel, Louis Trent.So I think this is...Nick Wells for Andres Munoz.Yeah, I mean, really at the end of the day, yeah.It's, so yeah, it's a little bit like that.It's not exactly Adams threw a few more strikes than even Topa does,
21:22but it's really good stuff coming from kind of a funky arm angle.He hides the ball pretty well.And the sinker, from what I watch, the sinker has some real, like,it runs hard and on the righties.and the slider, I mean, it looks kind of like a wiffle ball sometimes.It just so slowly sweeps across the play.But on the times that he can locate those pitches,he's made guys look like fools.
21:48So it's a huge upside play for the Mariners.He's 31.He's got all three options left.He doesn't have to make the team out of free agency or out of spring training.So if he pitches his way into the bullpen out of spring training, great.That probably means the Mariners have something.They figured it out.they're going to get more out of him than Milwaukee could ever dream of. If he doesn't, oh, well,
22:09you lost a prospect who, well, interesting, is at least three years away from the big leagues.And there's a lot of question marks as to whether or not he can get to the big leagues. It's notlike they gave up a ton to get this guy. It's a lottery ticket for a lottery ticket. Just Seattle'slottery ticket has a chance to help them pretty significantly this year, whereas Milwaukee's lotteryticket is three years away. And they just wanted the 40-man spot. That's really what it comes down to.Well, I have no idea who he is, but I can't wait to watch him be a top-ten reliever in allbaseball this next season. Mariner'srelievers, baby. It's going to happen. It's going to
22:40how it is. It's just how it is. They're going to get himthrowing strikes and boom, there you go.High leverage reliever.We laugh.We laugh. Just wait until like June 28th whenTopa's getting like all the save opportunities.Just wait. We're going to be like, is Topaan All-Star? Like, I mean, look at the numbers, man.
22:59Well, we'll see how it goes. But it wascertainly interesting.And it's one of those classic Jerrymoves right where the team breaks the news and we just kind of comes out and know where you're like ohokay cool so yeah it's fun to learn a little bit about them um maybe we can try and get joeon the show at some point to kind of discuss the models uh that they like on topa let's getjustin topa on the show how about that let's do it let's uh let's make it happen get the hashtaggoing let's do it i can't imagine that that would be too difficult to set up but
23:36To tease something, we do have an interview coming next week with somebody who has pitched out of the manner's bullpen.Let's say that way.Okay.There we go.There you go.Nice little tease.All right.We'll see if we get left on red again.
23:52Feeling good about it.Yeah.Feeling better.So if it doesn't happen, you know, it's not our fault, obviously.Duh.But yeah, that's going to do it for our show.Thank you so much for joining us here on an emergency.episode of the Lockdown Mariners podcast for Colby Pat Note.
24:09I'm Tadang Gonzalez.Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at LO underscore Mariners.You can follow me at Dan Gonzalez.It's T-A-N-ZL-Z and Colby at C-PAT-11.That's C-PAT-1-1.You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode.And thank you again for making us your first listen after the AJ Pollock signing and theJustin Topa Trade.
24:29Now make your second listen.Lockdown MLB Prospects host Lindsay Crosby is a prospect encyclopedia.He's going deep on the MLB stars of tomorrow.It's free and available wherever you get your podcast just like us.And with that, have yourself a beautiful baseball day.And hopefully we'll see you on Monday.Peace.