Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Emergency Bonus Pod: Mariners Trade For Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suárez

Episode Date: March 14, 2022

The Mariners have traded for outfielder Jesse Winker and third baseman Eugenio Suárez, sending left-handed pitcher Brandon Williamson, right-handed pitcher Justin Dunn, outfielder Jake Fraley and a player to be named later to the Reds in return. Hosts Ty Dane Gonzalez and Colby Patnode react to the deal and break it down.Be sure to follow or subscribe to Locked On Mariners wherever you prefer your podcasts! For questions and other inquiries, email: [e-mail] the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @danegnzlz | @CPat11For more of Ty and Colby, check out their Patreon: patreon.com/controlthezone/Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.BetOnlineBetOnline.net has you covered this season with more props, odds and lines than ever before. BetOnline – Where The Game Starts! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You are Locked-on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. All right. Emergency podcast time, because we had just recorded and published an episode of Locked-on Mariner's. And thank you, by the way, for making us your first listen of the day. Right after we published it, Jerry Depoto, and please ignore the title of the last

the last episode because that was titled Paging Jerry DePoto. Well, he is here. He has arrived. He has answered our calls. Huge, huge, huge trade already announced by both teams. The Mariners acquiring Jesse Winker,

outfielder and A. E. Haneo Suarez, third baseman from the Cincinnati Reds for left-handed pitching prospect, Brandon Williamson, right-handed pitcher. Justin Dunn, outfielder, Jake Frailey, and a player to be named later, who there's quite a bit of special.

about that. We'll talk about that in just a moment. But this is going to be a differently structured episode than usual because we're just kind of doing it on the fly. But Colby, what is your initial reaction to the steel? Chills. DePoto does it again. I mean, like, look, I know that there's a lot of people like, oh, my, this is robbery, this is all that. And then I get it. I really do. Brandon Williamson's a good prospect, a very good prospect, probably a number three ceiling. A lot of people thought he was the number two prospect in the mariner, number two pitching prospect in the mariner system right now.

And it seems like the mariners may have agreed. But again, you're talking about Williamson, who maybe could have come up and helped you this year. For Jesse Winker, who let's just say it, is the most underrated hitter in baseball. I don't think it's clubs. Ty and I were talking before the show, and I'm just going to rattle off this name.

this list for you guys here. Including all players who had at least as many played or including all players who had at least 450 plate appearances, which is just below the mark for qualification for league leader categories. Jesse Winker posted a 148 WRC plus. Here's a list of players with higher WRC pluses than what Jesse Winker did last year, who by the way is only 27 years old. the list includes Bryce Harper

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Juan Soto Fernando Tatis Jr. Shohei Otani and that is the entire list. He is tied with Aaron Judge for sixth. He is ahead of guys like Kyle Tucker,

Matt Olson, Brian Reynolds, Trey Turner, Nick Castellanos, Jordon Alvarez, Jose Ramirez, Brandon Lau, Cedric Mullins,

Freddie Freeman, Carlos Correa, and Raphael Evers, to name a few. There wasn't a better bat available for the Mariners to acquire than Jesse Winker, who, oh, by the way, is a left-handed hitter, which, correct me if I'm wrong, tie was a pretty big need for the Mariners, and we were all kind of wondering where it was going to come from.

And, oh, not only did they go get a left-handed bat, they got arguably the third best left-handed bat in all of baseball behind Juan Soto and Shohei Otani. Is that where Brian Williams? I'd say that he needed to add a left-handed element to his lineup. He sure did. Now, is that worth, is two years of that worth six years of Brandon Williamson, who hasn't made his major league debut yet? Yes, yes, a thousand times, yes.

You do that deal every day of the week and twice on Sunday. So it's an absolute steal for the Mariners. Now, we don't yet know what the player, who the player to be named later is. we've seen some speculation that maybe it's Kyle Lewis or Taylor Tremel. I personally don't believe that. I believe it's going to be one of the young outfielders in the Mariners system. My guess is still Victor LaBrata, but I think George Fleeves makes some sense here. I think on the high end, maybe it's somebody a little bit better, but I just, I don't think it is.

I really don't. I think it's going to be somebody like that. Kylie McDaniels has said that it's a top 20 prospect in the, the Mariners system, one that they gave a 40 future value grade to, which is a pretty good prospect. So it's not going to be nothing, but it's, it seems like it's probably not going to be anybody who was realistically going to help you this year. So the deal is, it's a, it's a grand slam. I mean, there's just no reason to doubt it. And the Mariners get huge credit for using their flexibility in their payroll creatively, because they don't get this deal done at this price unless

they take on Suarez's contract, which honestly isn't even that bad. But they did it because they were able to. And as a result, they make this huge move. And honestly, I think I think the Astro should be a little bit worried. They're not quite there yet, but I think the Astros should be a little bit. Let's see what else they do here, which we're going to talk about later on in the show.

But, yeah, Jesse Winker. Really good baseball player. I think I think we've established that. Let's talk about Suarez though. Right. So Suarez, you're taking on a little bit of money here with Suarez. He's under club control through 2025. It's $11 million this year, $11 million next year, $11 million in 2024.

And then there's a $15 million club option, which, let's be real, probably not going to get picked up. But Suarez doesn't really hit for average, doesn't get on base a ton, but he hits. a ton of bombs. At the very least, he should be fairly in line with 2021 Kyle Seeger. Am I wrong in that assessment? No, I think it's a low batting average.

Probably going to strike out a little bit more than Seeger, but I think he's probably going to walk a little bit more, and the power is going to come a little bit easier for him. So no, I think the defense is about the same, honestly. Suarez might be a little bit better. It's a little difficult to judge, because last year they tried to force Suarez to play shortstop and he should never step foot at that position again. He is a true third baseman. Keep him there. Yeah, I think 2021 Seeger is a fair

expectation for Suarez. So last year, 31 home runs for Suarez, but 198, 286, 428 slash line. Before that, though, listen to the WRC pluses here, 2018, 135. The year before that, he was at 116. Then in 2019 he was at 130 2020 short and season of course slash 202 312 470 with a 101 WRC plus and then of course the numbers that I mentioned last year

but look this guy is just really a one and a half seasons removed from being an all-star caliber player so there's upside here as well there's a potential

that hey maybe you It's going to be hard to say that name. I'm going to learn it, though. But Ehuehanyos Juarez, there it is. I got it that time. He's a damn good player, man. He's a damn good player when he's on. So there's potential here that maybe he gets back to that.

So what do you think about the prospects of that? Maybe him getting back to that kind of level of production. I think it's unlikely, but it's obviously not zero. You know, Suarez is just 30 years old. So it's not like he's well past his prime. And, you know, I mean, again, the last two years, pretty bad. Still hit 31 home runs this year.

I think it's going to come down to whether or not he can get that K percentage down to a reasonable level. When he was at 23, 24%, he was a really good player. And even the one year in 2019, he, it just, jumped up to 28% and it was you know he hit the 49 home runs so it seems like there was a little bit of a sellout for power there um but like we've like we've talked about with hanniger i kind of prefer him not to sell up for power and and you know he's still capable of hitting 30 home runs it just seems like maybe he sold out to try and get to to 40 and 50 which he almost did and that's hurt his overall approach but i have to watch him i have to see if the bat speed is still there

But I certainly wouldn't rule it out because he still walks quite a bit and he still has that really good power. So yeah, it's definitely possible. I would say unlikely, but it's not zero. I'll say that. And if he does get back to those levels, this deal looks even better and better and better. So unlikely but not non-zero chance, I would say. And Jerry DePoto confirms that the player to be named later comes from a list of players that are obviously not on the 40-man roster. There we go.

So any concern about Taylor Tremel, Cal Lewis potentially being involved in the deal, that is now squashed. So it's going to be a prospect. We'll see which one could sting a little bit. Obviously, Brandon Williamson stings. But the fact that Jake Fraley and Justin Dunn, after so many fan fiction Fridays, if you are familiar with our show and have listened to some of our fan fiction Friday episodes, we got to eat a little bit of crow here because we did say that Jake Fraley and Justin Dunn, we're probably never going to be. going to get you anything useful or help you get anything useful. But look, I mean, the reds are kind of weird and kind of dumb, it seems. So, you know, I don't really blame us for feeling that way in general.

But at the end, they did help you get something pretty useful. And of course, a little bit of that is also taking on Swarza's contract in full, which does limit the cost of acquisition of Winker. But still, are you surprised that? I mean, how surprised, rather, because I know you're probably surprised a little bit, but how surprised are you that Justin Dunn and Jake Fraley are in this deal and helped you get one of the best hitters of baseball? I'm not at all because I totally called it.

If you guys know my history, you knew I was saying Justin Dunn was the most valuable trade ship the Mariners had. It's a little bit surprising, but to me it's more about the fact that they were willing to take on Suarez's contract. That's the reason why Braley and Dun are able to help this thing cross the finish line. Dunn and Fraley are going to start for the Reds. Dunn's probably going to be in the starting rotation. Fraley's probably going to be the opening day left fielder.

So they get a couple of guys who can help them now, but I mean, obviously they're not great. But they do have some upside. And they were totally expendable for Seattle. So on that end, it's great for Seattle. It's great for Seattle that they were able to leverage those two pieces that, while they still had some value to the team, They had clearly been passed over by multiple people.

And so I think it was more Suarez being willing to take on all of Suarez's money than it was those two guys adding much value. But to me, I think the best way to look at this is just look at it as Williamson for Winker and then Dun & Freely for Swares. And I think if you look at it like that, it makes a lot of sense. it's just easier to break down. Still doesn't make a tremendous amount of sense. We'll see what the player to be named later is. But it sounds by all accounts it's going to be a prospect. Depoto has said as much so.

I would say that really what it's probably, I think the best way to look at is Williamson and player to be named later for Winker. And then the two other guys for Suarez. And I think if you break the deal down like that, it makes it makes, it makes it easier for Seattle fans to put into perspective. It's still not going to make much sense for Reds fans, but I mean, nothing could make that true.

So yeah, not surprised if you look at it from the Suarez for Don and Freely side of things. All right. So what next? Where do the Mariners go from here after making this huge trade? Are they done doing big stuff or is there still big stuff on the way? We're going to talk about that. But real quick, a reminder, this episode of Lockdown Mariners is brought to you by Bet Online. It's that time of year again as college basketball's tournament is finally upon us.

From all the latest odds, contests, some player props, betonline.net is the number one source for all your sports betting needs and info. Bet Online remains the best spot for all your sports scores, podcasts, and news this season. And it's not just basketball. Bet Online is your continued source for all your sporting wagering information needs, including live betting and your. your favorite Vegas casino games. So head to the website today or use your mobile device to learn more about the trends and action. That online, where the game starts. You're listening to Lockdown Mariners. Thank you again for making us your first listen of the day, just like you do here every day. And just a reminder to check out Lockdown MLB Prospects host Lindsay Crosby is a prospect encyclopedia

and he's going deep on the MLB stars of tomorrow. It's free and available wherever you get podcast just like us. So the Mariners not taking on a ton of payroll here, really, even with Svarez's contract. It's not a huge swing for them. And they're only really losing one legitimate prospect right now from their farm. We don't know who the other is, but it seems like it's going to be fairly significant. Again, we'll see, but they still have a lot of bullets to fire. So Colby, do you think they're done doing big stuff?

I mean, it's going to be hard to top Jesse Wink. banker, right? Like we said earlier, he's one of the best hitters in baseball when he's healthy. But you think that they maybe are still in the Chris Bryant market, even though that maybe now they have third base filled with Suarez? Or where do you think they go from here? I wouldn't say they're out on Bryant. Monetarily, monetarily they're not. This deal really doesn't impact them that way. It's about plus $19 million, something like that. So I wouldn't say they're out. but I would say it's highly unlikely, especially the way the deal, today's deal comes out. And as we're discussing this, you know, Jerry Depoto says, offensively, the Mariners seem to be done transacting. The likelihood is that our offensive team, you're looking at it. So that would seem to say, you know, this was our big swing. I still think they'll probably add some guys around the edges. I think maybe Jonathan V.R. still is a possibility here.

And if the market, they're going to be opportunistic. So if the market crashes on somebody like Chris Bryant, then I can see them be interested. But I think they like where their offense is at. They've added, you know, they've added Suarez, Frazier, and Winker. So it's a pretty good addition. Did not say they were done totally. I think if they're going to make a bigger move, it's going to be pitcher.

But again, Jerry DiPoto is always working the phones. And so while he sits here and says, yeah, I think this is what our team's going to look like. I mean, how good do you feel about that? Yeah, because they could trade Frazier, they could trade Suarez, they could trade Toro, they could trade Torrens, you know, for pitching. And all of a sudden, there's another need. So I think that I would take it for his word that right now,

based on where markets are for everybody else, this is probably about what the lineup's going to look like. But he's always going to be laying back in the weeds and waiting. and I don't think they're done adding. I think they have a bullpen armed add, and I think they are still going to be pretty aggressive on any kind of maybe a Frankie Montes type of guy or somebody we couldn't even fathom

is actually available via trade. So I don't think they're done per se, but I think the odds of them getting Bryant are pretty slim right now. I would assume that there's probably no more interest in outfielder's, right? Conforto's probably off the table, all that stuff. Yeah. Yeah, I would think so.

It's a bummer. I really like Conforto. The one thing I'd say is that the Mariners' outfield defense is going to be very bad early in the year. You know, Depoto has said now that Kyle Lewis isn't going to be ready for opening day. They're going to be very cautious with him. So he's out as a center field possibility. So you're probably looking at Winker and Left, Kelnick and Center and Hanigern right, which, oh my God, that's terrible. So, yeah, a defensive-minded glove or.

or Kevin Kiermeyer maybe even still makes some sense, I think. And, you know, it's interesting to Poto said that Winker is going to get some at bats against lefties. So maybe a right-handed platoon who could play some defense makes some sense there too. So, yeah, I still think that they're going to work around the fringes here. But Winker is, as Twitter is on fire right now, as somebody speculates that Jesse Winker might already be the best left-fielder in Mariners history. So yeah, I think they're done with the huge moves. But if they add somebody like Jonathan V.R. Or somebody like, I don't know, Tommy Fam, Andrew McCutcheon, somebody like that to compliment the outfield.

I think that's still a pretty good possibility. And, you know, a guy that we've talked, thrown around a little bit anyways, Billy Hamilton maybe to play some center field in late inning situations. I think that's where they're more likely to go. But, yeah, I think the dead ends are in reference to story. and to a certain extent, Brian. I just, I feel like, I feel like Seattle tried very hard to get those two guys,

but, yeah, again, it takes two to tango. And they just, they're not, they're not going to do that. So, all right. So how does it all fit? How do these guys fit in, to quote one of our listeners, the geometry of the Mariners lineup and their roster?

We're going to be talking about that in just a moment. Real quick, this episode of Lockdown, Mariners is brought to you by Bill Barr. This is the time of year that I've pretty much given up on all of my New Year's resolutions, that is. But not this year. I'm sticking to my resolution to eat right thanks to Bilt Bar. And it almost feels like it's not really a resolution because I actually enjoy eating them. Now, all Bilt bars are covered in 100% real chocolate. They're low calorie, high in protein. So replace your candy bars with these. They are better. A typical candy bar can be

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de poto has spoken to the media i think he's still speaking to the media as we're recording this right now but he's been talking about, you know, where the, where Winker and where Suarez are going to be playing and how they're going to deploy them and how that's all going to work. So Colby, where do you think these guys are going to be

playing most of their innings and where do you think they're going to fit in the lineup? I'm going to assume that Winker's going to get most of the time in left field, probably 75% of that. And Suarez is going to be the opening day third baseman. I suspect Toro will still get a fair share at third base. especially if Suarez struggles early.

But yeah, I think Winker's going to play left and Sweros is going to play third. I think they'll both DH a little bit. And I think, you know, Winker might be sitting out a lot of eighth, ninth innings to get some defense out there. So we'll see how works out. But ultimately, both these guys are going to play a lot. And I think Winker is probably going to hit third. That would be my guess.

And I think Sweros probably hits fifth or six. but we'll see we'll see are you concerned at all about Winker against lefties and how that may devalue him a little bit

no because again it's just from the standpoint of like you know the Mariners being done now offensively at least according to Charity de Boto right right

that being the guy that they added is maybe a platoon tune guy. No, I just, I'm not. I'm not. I, I, you know, again, 60, 70% of the bats are going to come against righty against right hand pitching anyways. And again, I haven't looked at Winker splits too seriously. Be honest with you, this is all pretty fresh. But unless he's just atrocious against left, he's like unusable, he's going to be fine. I mean, it's obviously you expect some regression there but no I don't have any concern that Winker

is like the bat they added is to I'm not sure what the word is is not multi-dimensional because that's a lot of hitters so we'll see he was pretty bad against Lefties last year does that mean he's going to be bad or doesn't mean hey Luis Turenz is just going to DH on days against lefties and the Winker will find the bench

and I have this really great bench bat to use and I get a little bit of a defensive upgrade when there's a lefty on the mound. So I'm not too worried about it. Yeah. 57 WRS Plus against the lefties last year. 176, 288, 284 slash line. Right.

So not great. In 2020, it was 137. Obviously, smaller sample size in 2020. But, yeah, I'm not too worried about it. Yeah. That was 118 plate appearances, by the way. Right, right, right. So, yeah, for the most part, his, he's a, he's a righty masher, which is actually okay because, you know, who's a lefty masher? Louis Terence and Ty France and Mitch Hanigar. So that they'll be fine. And eventually, Kyle Lewis and Julio Rodriguez, I'm not too worried about it.

Yeah, I mean, in general. I mean, let's let's let's let's meet around the bush here. The Mariners got significantly better today and nitpicking little issues with it. is probably not what we should be doing right now right like we should be celebrating the fact that the mariners just got significantly better and it's it's already started there are people who are mad that like oh this is all you're going to do and it's like they added two all stars and a young award winner um three officers swarez made the all star team last year oh you just mean last year i just meant in general yes uh Robbie ray surprisingly not one of those all-stars believe it or not so yeah it's it's it's crazy man uh just never good enough and and people are still pointing at the payroll i saw i saw somebody do right oh the mayor's payrolls only at a hundred million dollars they're cheap okay well if all you're going to do is stare at the payroll then yeah you can be mad but i'm looking at what they've added and i think they added conservatively

let's see two, four, six, ten, ten wins, I would say, conservatively. And I still think they're going to add more on the pitching side of things. So there you go. Are they closer to repeating 90s now? How much closer are there? Pretty significantly. I think Winker's probably a four-win bat. And I think Svarez is probably closer to a two-win bat.

So that would be six wins. obviously that's not exactly how it works, but yeah, I think they're closer. I would say right now, based on where the roster is, so would like another starting pitcher. Sure it would be nice that they could add another outfielder,

particularly, you know, one who could hit lefties a little bit. And still some big questions, a catcher that they're not going to go away. But I look at this roster now and I go, I feel like the floor is probably 500. barring some kind of disastrous injuries, which means the ceiling is probably higher than 90 wins.

And let's not forget, Seattle still has plenty of prospect capital and plenty of payroll flexibility to go be aggressive in June, July. If this team warrants it. Yeah, today's a day to celebrate, guys. We'll talk about defensive issues in the outfield later. We'll talk about, you know,

could they have done more later? Today is a day to be happy that the Mariners added, arguably the sixth best hitter in baseball, or at least he was last year, you know, at the very least the top 30 bat in all of baseball and a third baseman who's an adequate replacement for Kyle Seeger. And they did it without...

House of upside. Yep. And they did it without sacrificing significantly in the... You look at what the Braves gave up for Matt Olson and then what the Mariners gave up for Jesse Winker. It's no-brainer. Absolutely no-brainer. Jesse Winger is a better hitter than Matt Olson.

Yep. It's true. I mean, if we're speaking strictly, statistically, like, Jesse Winker is a better editor than Matt Olson. Yep. At least over the last two years, right? I mean, the guy has never had a WRC plus below, what, 1-11 in five seasons. And some of those are part seasons, but still, like, he's also ridiculous. He's also 27 years old.

He's just, 28. He's just now entering his prime. He doesn't turn 29 until August either. So this is his age 28 season. Be happy. And if you can't be happy today, if you can't be happy today, I might suggest to you you're not really a baseball fan or a Mariners fan.

Maybe you need to find a different avenue because today is a great day. You know, maybe you miss me with the negativity for a couple of days because I'm choosing to be happy today. Hey, and good for Brandon Williamson. Yeah, I think he's kind of, he's a winner in this situation because wasn't really a clear path for him to get innings this year. I mean, there were, there was going to be opportunities for sure, because naturally there's going to be injuries and stuff like that. But now there's a very clear shot for him to pitch a considerable amount of innings in Cincinnati this year. We'll see how they handle that.

But, yeah, he's got a good opportunity to reach a big league level and stick this year. So that's nice for him. And again, we'll see, you know, what the other, what the other prospect is, who the other prospect is, rather. But overall, this is a fantastic deal for Jerry DePoto and the Seattle Marries. They got significantly better today, offensively, just as a team in general. And, yeah, they're looking, they're looking prime to compete. This is looking a lot more how we were, we were hoping it would look. You know, this still came as a bit of a surprise,

Because, like, we spent the whole lockout talking about pretty much every single baseball player under the sun. And still somehow Jerry Depoto found a way to surprise us, which I think we all should have expected anyway. I think we only talked about Winker once or maybe twice. And yeah, I just, I didn't think that they would be able to get them at this price. But how about that? You know, sometimes the prizes are good, very good. All right. So that is going to do it for our show.

And thank you so much for joining us here on lockdown Mariners. Be sure to listen to the other show that we posted earlier today. We talk about the Stephen Sousa minor league signing. We talked about what the twins are doing and how that kind of impacts the Mariners or maybe not. And talked about our general offseason thoughts before the winker deal. So a little bit of it is irrelevant, but I still suggest listening to that show. It's a good show. And yeah.

But for Colby Patnode, I'm Taday Gonzalez. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter. at L-O-U-U-N-R-N-R-N-Z. You can follow me at Dane Gonzalez, it's C-A-N-Z-L-Z, and Colby at C-E-P-A-T-1-E. You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode. And thank you again for making us your first listen of the day, just like you do here every day. Now, make your second list of the day, locked on MLB, where Paul Francis Sullivan, and please call him, Sully brings you his unique perspective on the Major League's President Pass. It's free, wherever you get your podcast just like us. So have yourself a beautiful baseball day, and we will see you on Wednesday.

Peace.