Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Erasing the 1994 Strike: League Leaders (Part the First)

Episode Date: June 2, 2020

Locked On Mariners contributor Jon Miller joins D.C. to look at the stats for the 1994 league leaders to see how they may have finished the season if the 1994 strike didn't halt the season prematurely. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to Locked-on Mariners, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Here's your host, D.C. Lundberg. Well, gang, as the rascals sang in 1968, people everywhere just got to be free. And in Spokane, while it's a month later than it should have been, we are finally becoming free. Our reopening began yesterday, one whole month after neighboring Idaho's did. hence the reason I was doing the program from Idaho last month. In any case, this is Locked-on Mariners, part of the Locked-on podcast network, or T-L-O-P-N or T-Lopin, of course brought to you by Built Bar. Please remember to download, rate, and subscribe to Locked-on Mariners on Google Podcast, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher Radio, or whichever podcasting app that you personally care to use.

Ask your smart device to play Locked-on Mariner's podcast or any of the other wonderful shows here, on Tloppin. Follow the show on Twitter at L-O-U-O-U-N-Sourner. Follow me on Twitter at D.C. underscore Lundberg, L-U-N-D-B-E-R-G for those scoring at home. This week, as I have been doing previously, we're going to continue to look at some of the top big leaguers from the 1994 season to see what their numbers may have looked like if the strike never occurred. Batting averages were high, extra base hits were plentiful that year. I had previously projected Matt Williams to finish with 63 home runs, and I had also previously projected Tony Gwyn to bat 404.

This week we'll look at some of the other players who are having monster seasons. Here with me all this week to do just that is Locked-on Mariners contributor, John Miller. John, how are you doing today? I am doing very well. Thank you so much for having me. Absolutely. Always a pleasure having you on the show. To prepare for this week's shows, ladies and gentlemen,

and John and I put our heads together to figure out just who exactly we were going to be talking about. The first name that sprung to my mind was the oft overlooked Jeff Bagwell, so we will get to him in a little bit. We're specifically going to look into the Triple Crown categories, batting average, home runs, and RBI, to see how the league leaders in each category would have finished if the leaderboard would have changed, etc. But let's get to Bagwell right now. And he's a very interesting case. he was already having the season of his life. His real-life numbers include a 368 batting average,

39 home runs, 116 RBI, and this is, you know, those are good numbers for a 162 game season. But this was not a 162 game season. And accounting for the missing time at the end of this season, I have him now projected out because he was on a tear at the end of the season. He was hitting it over a 400 clip. In fact, the sample size I'm using,

he was hitting 425. So his batting average goes all the way up, John, to 384. His home run total goes to 61. That's now the second player with over 60 home runs that I've got in this projection. And 176 RBI. Any other season, those are Triple Crown numbers, and he's only the league leader in one of them, RBI. That's incredible.

because we've got Matt Williams and Tony Gwynn that are just off the charts. Many of you listeners will, of course, remember the home run race of 1998. Well, here in 1994, it looks like we've got another home run race. We did because not only with Matt Williams, who you just mentioned and Jeff Bagwell, hitting 63 and 61 respectively, the other week I had Barry Bonds hitting over 60. I don't remember if he was at 60 or 61, but he's also broken the 60 mark, which is an amazing feat.

That's three players this year with 60 or more home runs. That's, I can't put that into words. That's just incredible. That's the only season that I can think of where anyone has come close to that. In 1998, there were two players with over 60, but at the same time, you know, McGuire kind of pulled away a little bit at the end with 70.

Sosa had 66. This seemed to be a little bit more interesting because they were all really close to each other. Bagwell had 39 in real life. Matt Williams had 43 in real life. Junior had 40 in real life. But the projection that I used, he only winds up with 54. His power was fading a little bit down the stretch. As it kind of did in 1998 as well.

And Bonds had 37, I believe. and some of the other, let's look at some of the other home run leaders in baseball. We'll start with the American League here because that's the page I got up. Junior had 40. Frank Thomas had 38. Albert Bell had 36. So let's just look at the big hurt and Albert Bell to see what they may have done. Let's start with Bell because his stat sheet is what I have up.

He also had kind of a hot finish to his season. His season end was, and this was for the entire, 1994 season that happened in real life. 36 home runs, 101 RBI, and a 357 batting average. The sample size I'm using, he hit 337, so his average goes

down. However, I've given him 22 more home runs because he was on something of a power binge at the end. He ends this fake season with 58 home runs and 153 runs batted in in addition to a still

spectacular 350 batting average. batting averages across the board were up in 1994. But because you don't really think of Bagwell or Bell as players who were that much above 300, do you, John? No, you really don't. This, from what we've uncovered so far, is just extraordinary. It really is extraordinary. And speaking, just going back to Bagwell a little bit, I believe he hit 290 in 1995.

So that 368 already was an outlier. Bagwell was generally around, you know, the 295, 310, that range, certainly not in the 360s. But again, batting averages were up across the league. And I can't really figure out why. Because the league ERA for Major League Baseball was 4.5. And when there was another offensive explosion similar to this in 1996, the league average was 499, but batting averages were not that high.

I can't really figure it out. I would like to look into a little bit more, but we haven't got time on these programs. Let's look at Frank Thomas and then give back to Albert Bell in just a little bit because Thomas is another very interesting case. He led Major League Baseball in real life in walks and runs scored. And his real life 1994 numbers are still very, very good.

353 batting average, 38 home runs, 101 RBI, and 106 runs scored. Thomas was, I mean, I hate to say he was in a slump during the sample size because he still hit 322, but that's certainly no 353. I've given him 14 more home runs, so he ends the season with 52 home runs. I believe that's his only season over 50. 146 RBI is his new total, and a 344 batting average. 196 hits, which is really good, and 141.41.

runs scored. And he was the MVP of the American League this season. And I don't think any of those numbers approach Albert Bell. No, they don't appear to. Except maybe batting average. And when you're dealing with six points in a batting race, that's not that close. But in the grand scheme of things, you take a 350 hitter or a 3.44 hitter. They're both great, which would you rather? But in any case, I mentioned to you, John, at the top of the show, and this is what I found very interesting, about the American League batting race since we're kind of talking about batting average. In the American League, Paul O'Neill finished the season with a 359 batting average, which led the American League.

The sample size I've got him with here, he was slowing down a little bit, and he was slowing down as the season progressed. The sample size I use here, he's hitting 311, which is far below 3.59. As a matter of fact, his batting average goes all the way down to 344. He's now tied with Frank Thomas for his second place. Bell's the new batting champion. Wow, I did not see that one coming. Uh-uh, no.

I mean, three, I mean, his average went down 15 points. That's a lot. But when you're dealing with, you know, a missing six weeks of his season, that's going to give somebody about 200 more plate appearances, between 190 and 220 plate appearances, is what I have found. Paul O'Neill gains 164 at-bats this way, 201 plate appearances, but he walked 34 times. His on-base percentage in the sample size is 423,

which is also beneath his real life on-based percentage of 460. So even that goes down a little bit. He doesn't appear to have finished the way he did in real life. And this is kind of astounding because everyone else that seems to have ended hot or just had such incredible years. What I found very interesting is in terms of, batting average, the American League players seem to finish, I hate to say slowly, because these are still really, really good batting averages, but they were all finishing beneath their

season-ending batting averages, and the opposite is true in the National League. Tony Gwyn's batting average went up four points from 394 to 404. Bagwell's batting average went up. So it's kind of a different story. Dante Bichette's batting average went down. We'll get to him probably in the second half of the show, or maybe even tomorrow. But it's kind of a phenomenon. And then this way, Paul O'Neill also ends with 30 home runs.

Extra base hits are up across Major League Baseball. I don't think of Paul O'Neill as a 30 home run hitter. I think of him as a very good contact hitter who got a lot of doubles, but not necessarily a lot of home runs. Yeah, with home runs and even the average that you project him out to have, that's still very good. And what we're seeing from him and so many of these other guys are, what you would call career or

Hall of Fame caliber years. There's certainly, there are a lot of, that's the word, they were career years. A lot of players were having absolute career years. We're already about time for the Barroner's trivia question, believe it or not, and today it reads

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Remember, builtbar.com, and don't forget the promo code locked on to get $10 off your first order. Answer to the Mariners trivia question, ladies and gentlemen, two players led the 1994 Mariners in triples. They each hit four. John, do you have any idea who that might be off the top of your head? Edgar Martinez and I don't know. Okay. No, it's actually Ken Griffey Jr. and Jay Buehner, believe it or not.

Buehner hit four triples in 1994, and that's not even the year he hit for the cycle. Buehner probably would have been the last person I would have guessed. I thought it was going to be Felix Fermin, quite honestly, when I wrote the question, and I don't think, I don't know how many he had. But in any case, more Locked-on Mariners, ladies and gentlemen, after the following. Now time for the second half of Locked-on Mariners. Once again, your host, D.C. Lundberg.

Thank you once again, J.M. for leading us back into the second half of Locked-on Mariners. I am indeed, D.C. Lundberg. Continuing to talk about 1994, projecting out some numbers as if the strike never happened, if the season had been played to completion, kind of left off talking about the American League batting race. So that's where we're going to pick it up in the second half. John Miller is still with me to do that. That seems like we've done this before, John,

but that's a story for another time, I think. Yes. For those at home, just to kind of peel back the curtain, as I like to do every once in a while, I accidentally deleted the original second half of today's program. So we're kind of redoing it. And we had no scripts. So this may be a completely different conference.

conversation than what we had the first time, which is A-OK. We were talking about the batting race. We had gone through Paul O'Neill, who ended the season at 3.59. Albert Bell hit 357. Frank Thomas hit 353. There were three others at 340 or better. Kenny Lofton, Wade Boggs, Paul Molter, so we'll start with Kenny Lofton since that's the logical place, since he was next in line.

And his batting average also goes down a little bit. What I was most curious about with Kenny Lofton, John, was a stolen base total because he had 60. The projection that I'm using, first of all, he hit 349, since we're talking about the batting race. He hit 349. This sample size, he hit 337, still very, very good, but his batting average for the season goes down to 3.45.

He gains five home runs and three triples and 18 doubles. So he's now got 50 doubles on this season. I don't really think of Kenny Lofton as much the doubles hitter, but he did have some extra base sock. He now has 12 triples and 17 home runs and 227 hits. A huge total. The stolen

bases, though, he gains 27. So he now has, in this projection, 87 stolen bases. That is incredible. Everything that you've just mentioned, Kenny Lofton already led the league in stolen bases, already led the league in hits.

Yeah. And it looks like he retains, obviously the stolen basis, but I think he retains the hit title, too. I sure sounds that way. And having 50 doubles, that is, well, 1994 and 2003 were career highs for him with 32. Well, sorry, he had 35 and 1996. Still, that's still a huge total. Yeah, that's a huge leap.

And you said 18 home runs? 17. 17 home runs. Yeah, that is also. a career high. And his batting average, yeah, this is a career year for him. In 1994, he was only 27 years old, his fourth year in the league. That's correct.

His third full season, and this was his third consecutive American League stolen base title. He would have five. He stole 75 bases in 1996. So this total of 87 is definitely within the realm of possibility. It's well within his general capabilities. There are teams these days. teams that do not steal 87 bases per season.

Yeah, that number is just astounding and puts him right up there with the likes of Ricky Henderson and Vince Coleman. You're absolutely right. In Coleman and Henderson and I, Tim Rains to the equation too, the kind of three stolen base kings, as it were, the 1980s, Willie McGeex could steal a base too. I know I'm leaving some players out when I apologize for that, but stolen bases to me is a lost star.

I would love to see it come back. And the reason there aren't more stolen bases these days, managers don't want to take the risk of running out of an inning, which, okay, I get it. But you got to take risks, don't you, John? You certainly have to. You can still play for the home run. You're still going to get the home run.

Right. Your King Griffey Jr., your Mark McGuire's Barry Bond, just to name a few big home run hitters, are still going to hit. the big home runs, but that stolen base or that extra base on a fly ball by the speedster adds a little more excitement to the game. I think it adds a lot more excitement. And let's say you've got a guy like Edgar Martinez as your cleanup hitter,

who's known more as a doubles hitter than a home run hitter, and rightfully so, but also a very good RBI guy. You got a guy in the leadoff spot who can walk and steal second base, then he's easily going to score on a double. Yeah. Very well said. Thank you very much. Let's move on to the number five place hitter in the American League in 1994,

which I believe is Wade Boggs. Yes, it is. 342 for the season. And that 3.42, we're talking about players with career years. That's kind of an ordinary Wade Boggs season, because he was hitting in the 350s and the 360s consistently for years in the late 80s. The sample size I have him with here has him hitting 369. and 168 at bats.

So his batting average actually goes up eight points. He's tied with Albert Bell for the league league now at 350. So on tomorrow's program, or in the interim, I should say, I'm going to figure out who the true champion is because if there is a tie, they don't give it to both players. They'll go one more decimal place until the tie is broken. And I'll report that on tomorrow's show. But in any case, Wade Boggs is an interesting case here also.

He had 11 home runs in 1994, which is only the second time and the final time, which he had a double digit total. And I have him with four more for a total of 15. And I've also got him almost doubling his season total in doubles going from 19 to 29. He adds 10 more. And he only struck out 39 times in this projected season. For the season overall, the real season, he only struck out 29 times. just an amazing, amazing hitter.

He had the most level swing that I have ever seen, John. It was a beautiful swing, watching him at the plate, him in the American League, Tony Gwynn over in the National League, true artists at the bat. That's a very good way to put it. They were artists. What differentiated them, and they were both tremendous hitters.

What differentiated them, though, is that Gwyn would swing at anything and hit anything. He was not one to take a walk, but he could make contact in or out of the strike zone, and he would get a base hit out of it. Wade Boggs was completely different. You had to throw him a strike,

and he was not afraid of taking a walk. In 1994, he had 61 of them. I have him in this projection with 81 walks. For the real season, he hit 3.42, and his on-base percentage was 433, 90 points higher. And you mentioned walks, but one thing that bears mentioning here is that from the years 1987 through 1992, Wade Boggs led the American League in intentional walks, which doesn't go for his ability to take a pitch, but that's how dangerous he was at the bat that they didn't

want to face him. That's absolutely right. And he was hitting, I think he was hitting lead off for a lot of those Red Sox teams. And I forget who was hitting second. I think it was Marty Barrett. You know, a fine hitter in his own right, but certainly no Wade Boggs. But you're absolutely right. 19, 19, 19, 19, 19, 25 intentional walks, and then 1992. And then that was his last year with the Red Sox. He went to the Yankees and that total went down to four because there were a lot better hitters or there were a lot more effective hitters on that 1993 Yankees team than there were maybe on the 1992 Red Sox,

you know, kind of just a guess and going off of my memory. But that is an amazing total that he led. And in 1986, he had 14 intentional walks, which did not lead the league. Just an incredible, I mean, they were obviously afraid of him. And I have an intentional walk statistic that we're going to mention on tomorrow's show that I found pretty funny. And I've got Wade Boggs' statistics. here up, obviously.

And I mentioned that the 342, not necessarily a career year for him. His first season in the major leagues, he had 349, then 361. Oh, then he slumped to 325. That's no slump. That's still a great season. That's still 203 hits. Then he hit 368, 357, 363, 366. An amazing, amazing contact hitter, which is another lost art, frankly, John.

Yeah, I wish more batters would pay more attention to that, whether it's watching films of that or getting with a hitting coach and hopefully in the minor leagues and studying how to make contact. The hits will come if you've got the power, the home runs, the doubles, whatever, will come. But if you have 200 guaranteed outs, meaning strikeout, Yeah. That's a hindrance to a team. That's a hindrance to a team.

And that's a very, very good point because Wade Boggs was such a supreme contact hitter, Tony Gwyn, the same way. They almost never struck out. The most Wade Boggs struck out in his season was 68 times. And that was 1990, his age 32 season. For his career, he only averaged 41 strikeouts a year. A year, 41 strikeouts. That's a month for some players now.

Yeah. No kidding. And it goes back to what you said earlier. People are playing for the long ball. Everybody is simply trying to hit the ball out of the ballpark and score one run at a time. They don't really care if they're runners on base. Another thing that people kind of downplay,

he struck out no big deal. Put the ball in play and make the fielders do something, please. Make them earn that gold glove. Yeah. I mean, we're going off on a tangent here, ladies and gentlemen, and I swear that neither of us, We're not senior citizens yet. Neither of us are ready for the honored menu at Denny's.

But at the same time, the game is changed, and I don't think it's changed for the better. John, I do think you agree. But let's get back to the batting race. In sixth place was Paul Molter with a 341 average, and he was 37 years old this season. Wade Boggs was 36, by the way. And Molitor was one of three players.

In 1993, the Toronto Blue Jays went one, two, three. in terms of league leaders in batting. I think Molyder was second. He had 332. Even better here, he hit 3.41 for the 1994 Blue Jays. Not the best of Blue Jays teams, even though they were coming off to Straight World Series. And in the sample size that I am using for Molyder here, he was on something of a tear going into the strike. He was hitting at a 335 clip, 66 hits and 186 at bats.

his batting average also goes up to 3.45, and he didn't strike out very much either. In 1994, he struck out 48 times, and I've got him with 20 more for a total of 68, which is still a very, very good total. I have him projected out for 24 home runs and 40 doubles and 221 hits. I don't necessarily think of Paul Molitor as somebody who's going to hit you that many home runs or that many doubles. well, maybe 18 to 20 home runs and, you know, 30 to 35 doubles for Molitor. He exceeds those totals here.

Yeah, this is turning into kind of what we've already talked about, I believe in the first half of our show, is this is just another one of those. And for a guy like Mulleter, this is saying a lot to have a career year. Yes, yeah. Because his average was always up there. He was always been another very good contact hitter, but generally not that high, although he's,

He did hit 353 in 1987, but then it's 312, 315, 285, 325. Still very, very good batting averages, but not in the 340s, which is excellent. I will also note that in 1993, the year before he led the American League in hits when he hit 332, and in 1994, he played every single one of his team's games, all 115 games at age 37. I mean, he was a designated hitter. Let's not lose sight of that fact. but, and he wasn't a designated hitter, ladies and gentlemen, because he was a poor fielder.

The reason Milwaukee started de-hing him is because he always seemed to get injured while he was fielding. He'd play second base, third base. There was one season where he played center field. That was 1981, and he missed a lot of time with a severely sprained ankle. So just throwing that out there. One more player that I want to get to, John, before we wrap up for the day. And that kind of gets to some, we're going to a little bit of a preview for tomorrow

when we start talking about RBI. totals. I want to talk about Joe Carter, one of my personal all-time favorite players, obviously not one of the all-time greats, but I loved watching him play. And there was a time in the early 90s where if you needed a clutch RBI, Joe Carter was the guy to do it. He was known for his 30 home run, 100 RBI seasons consistently. And in real life, he did have 103 RBI and 27 home runs. I have him hitting 41 home runs in this project. which would have been a career high. His batting average comes down a little bit to 266 from 271, so a five-point swing.

And I've got his RBI total going up to 135, and that does not lead the American League. That is certainly a career high for him. The home runs is a career high, and those home runs, by the way, would bump his career numbers well over 400. That is true, yes. I hadn't considered that, but the four- 14 more that I've given him this year brings us total to 410. He had 396. And I projected out 1995 for the heck of it also, where he began on a real hot streak. He has three more home runs

there, which would bring his career total to 413. And I have his career batting average going up and his slugging percentage going up and is on base, although not by much since we're talking about thousands of it bats over the course of a career. But I've also got him with almost 1,500 RBI and 443 doubles. These are obviously not Hall of Fame numbers, but Joe Carter does kind of hold a special place in my heart, John. He was always so fun to watch, just a very classy ball player. Very classy ball player, very classy guy,

somebody who the younger players could look up to. And he always had that big smile on his face. He had a great smile. He was very marketable. And he was a lot like Ken Griffey Jr. in that he did play the game, you know, kind of as if he was, you know, kind of a kid in a candy store. And, you know, he even described himself as such, like he described himself as a kid in a candy store when he would play the game. Just somebody to look up to for sure.

Yeah. And you mentioned in Griffey, that's very apropos, I think, because they both strike me as players that truly love the game of baseball. Yes. And it showed. It showed when they were hitting. It showed when they were playing the outfield. And Joe Carter was also a guy who could steal you a base during his younger days. And just to complete our thoughts on Joe Carter, 1994 being a career year, he was 34 that

season. The bat kind of started to slow down. Although in 1996, he was up to his 30 home runs and 107 RBIs at age 36, which was really his last really good season because then his average goes down. to 234, and the Blue Jays were just terrible then anyway, and that might have had a little, that might have contributed a little bit. And John, as I look at the time, I see that we are overtime, so we need to get out of here and continue this conversation on tomorrow's program. But in the meantime, sir, please tell the nice folks where they can find you on Twitter.

I can be found on Twitter at Seattle Pilot 69. Thank you very much, sir. I look forward to tomorrow's program. Thank you for joining us today. and for you out there, please remember to download, rate, and subscribe to Lockdown Mariners on Google Podcast. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher Radio, or whichever podcasting app that you'd like to use. Follow the show on Twitter at L.O. underscore Mayerner's. Follow John on Twitter at Seattle Pilot 69. And follow me on Twitter as well at D.C. underscore Lundberg. Tomorrow we're going to dive into the RBI races and a little bit of the home run race, although we have covered that already.

Until then, have a great day. Happy birthday, Shannon. This is Joey Martin speaking for Locked-on Mariners, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network. Ask your smart device to play Locked-on MLB upon the conclusion of this program.