Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Exploring Options For the Mariners to Get Mitch Haniger Off the Books

Episode Date: November 15, 2024

It's Fan Fiction Friday! Ty and Colby read and grade your Mariners trade ideas, which include several deals trying to offload Mitch Haniger's contract.Check out our Patreon!Follow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @TyDaneGonzalez | @CPat11Follow the show on Bluesky: @lockedonmariners | @tdg | @mlbcolbySupport Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!SelectQuoteGet the right life insurance for YOU, for LESS, at SELECTQUOTE.COM/LOCKEDON.SelectQuote - They Shop. You Save.GametimeDownload the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONMLB for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Download Gametime today. What time is it? Gametime.FanDuelYou can start the season with a big return on FanDuel. New customers can place a FIVE DOLLAR bet and you’ll get started with ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY DOLLARS in BONUS BETS - if you win your first FIVE DOLLAR BET ! Visit FANDUEL.COM to get started. FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

It's fan fiction Friday. Let's see what Mariner's trades you cooked up this week. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Ahoy, sailors, it is Friday, November 15th, 2024. This is tying as Austin, Colby Fat Node for the Lockdown Marys Podcasts.

Part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. It's fan fiction Friday. We'll be reading and grading your Mariners trade ideas on the 2080 scale. based on things like creativity, uniqueness, and of course, viability. But before we do that, shout out to our title sponsored today, Fandul. New customers can place a $5 bet, and you'll get started with $150 in bonus bets if you win your first $5 bet. Visit Fandul.com to get started. And if you want to hear from me and Colby even more and help support the show, check out our Patreon.

All you have to do is click the link in the description of this episode. So we're going to kick off Fan Fiction Friday here with our loan trade of the day from Blue Sky. Unfortunately, our friend here who submitted this trade has fallen victim to the common blue sky invalid handle glitch. So I don't know what your name is. If you want to leave your name down in the comments below of this video, feel free to do so. But this trade has Harry Ford and Logan Evans going to the Cubs for Matt Shaw, 23 first round draft pick. Holy, what do you think?

Yeah, it's pretty interesting. Shaw drafted 2003 so he's barely you know started his professional career and yet already he's knocking on the door

up the big leagues this is the Mariners I do believe had interest in Shaw I think they liked him a lot in his draft year but unfortunately he got scooped up pick 14 I believe is what is where the Cubs selected that year

yeah and the Mariners unfortunately had to settle for Colt Emerson I know but I think that they'll survive they'll persevere And I do think that they would remain interested in Shaw, especially since he has an outside shot to be ready by opening day and be the third baseman. So it's not that he can't play shortstop. It's just that, you know, if you're the Mariners, you need more at third right now.

And obviously with Emerson or still in your system and Young also a shortstop, like somebody's going to have to move and shop, you know, playing third base for the next six years would be really nice. Yeah. How do you feel about the bat profile line at third base? I feel pretty good about it. It's not, you know, I don't think you're going to get elite third base production out of him. I mean, he hit 21 homers this year. He slugged 534 and AAA in 35 games. He slugged 468 and double A.

Yeah, you're probably going to get above average defense at third base as well. And he's a good athlete. And you get him for six years. So it's not like the power will never grow. I mean, if he settles in at 20 home runs, that's acceptable at third base. That's more than you got this year, certainly that that's pretty solid. at third base and it's such a shallow position. My thing is, I don't know why the Cubs would do this trade.

Because they can just move Nico Horner, if they really need to open up space on their infield. They honestly don't really need to open up space on their infield. I mean, Danesby Swanson, I guess you would think Shaw is blocked, but you could just move Shaw to second or third like the Mariners would. So I don't know why the Cubs would do this. You know, Shaw is mostly between, you know, prospect 20 to 40 in that. range depending on where you look.

Well, Ford is typically more in the 50 to 70 range, give or take, but you are giving up Logan Evans to try and make up that difference. But unless the Cubs really love Harry Ford, I don't see any reason why they would do this. You know, Shaw's closer to the big leagues. He's going to, you know, a higher floor than Ford. And so unless they really think Ford is like a great catcher and they think Logan Evans could be like a number four starter as soon as this year i don't really see why the cubs would pull the trigger on this uh if they wanted harry ford and they wanted logan evans why wouldn't they just dangle

uh one of their veterans like uh isaq paredes or or um nico horner like to make the room for for shaw so i don't think that shaw is actually blocked i think there are other levers the cubs could pull uh and i think the mariners should be interested in those levers if they do pull uh you know, if they're trying to move Paredes or they're trying to move Horner to make room for Shaw, the Mariners should pay attention to those markets as well. But I just don't see why the Cubs would actually go ahead and pull the trigger on this deal. Yeah, they could play Paredes at first and then D.H. Bush and then play Shaw at third or what have you, right? Yeah. Yeah, I think Shaw's the better prospect than Ford, and I don't think Evans is good enough to make up the difference.

So I just don't see the Cubs doing this. Yeah. Interesting thought. though. You know, the marries are going to have to get creative at one of the spots, at least we know that. And so it's either playing a guy out of position or maybe acquiring a guy who hasn't made his debut and batting on him. They're going to have to make a bet on somebody at one of their three infield spots. And unfortunately, they're also going to make a bet on J.P. Crawford. So it's not where you want to be.

But unfortunately, when you're working with a limited budget, the Mariners should be open to taking a shot like this. I just don't think that is a guy who's. Yeah. Going to be one that you can take a shot on. Yeah. I'll, I'll split the difference here between a 45 and a 50. So I'll call it a 47 and a half.

It's unique. I just don't think the Cubs do it. So I don't think there's a lot of viability there. Yeah. If they would, if they would do it, I would do it in a heartbeat. So I don't think it's an overpay, but that's part of the problem, right? So, yeah. Yeah.

Yeah, I'll say 45, like it, it's pretty solid. It is definitely a conversation worth having, but I think ultimately the two sides just don't line up that well on a prospect for prospect swap. Again, Horner, parades, they become available. Yeah, the Mariners should be very interested in those guys as well. Next trade here comes from Mark. Yandi Diaz and Pete Fairbanks from the raise for Gregory Santos, Ty Pete, Logan Evans, and Harry Ford. It's quite a lot to give up. for two guys that might only be here for 2025.

Yeah. There's club options. I think both have club options for one more year. But, you know, Jorge Polanco had a club option. We all kind of thought was probably going to be picked up. And it didn't. And so Yondi is an older player. He's a first base, DH only.

Fairbanks is just a reliever. So if he's not a great reliever, you might not want to spend the $6 million or whatever it is to bring him back. Now, Fairbanks is a really, yeah, Fairbanks is a really good reliever, though. And he is definitely a high leverage arm that you've been, or that we at least have been wanting to add to this bullpen. And Diaz would solve either your first base or your DH problem. He's a good hitter overall, more average and doubles than home runs and power. But, you know, that's the tradeoff you make. And so it's an interesting tandem to go after.

and I do think that your offer is on the aggressive side, but I think it probably is going to have to be a little bit aggressive because we know that Diaz, apparently, the Reyes were asking for more than they got for Randy Rosa Rana for Diaz, and there was at least four suitors at the end of the day. Now, the raise ultimately didn't trade him, so clearly the rest of baseball disagreed with their valuation of Diaz. How much of that has changed in the last few months?

I don't know, tough to say, right? but you do get them for one less pennant race than you did if you got them in July. Fairbanks, again, relievers, especially high leverage ones who are making below market value, they're expensive. They're expensive. But you're including Santos in this deal. So the raise are getting a potential high leverage reliever who is making the league minimum. And in this deal, I think they're clearing about $15 million in payroll, give or take.

So there's benefit there. So I think, you know, Santos, Pete, Evans, and Ford is very aggressive. It's a very aggressive offer. But I don't think it's, I think it's on the money. Yeah. Well, I think it has to be an aggressive offer. Yeah. It's the thing because I think, you know, the Mariners have to leverage their farm system if

they're not going to spend money. And both Diaz and Fairbanks are outproducing their contracts and are a good bet to do it again. So the odds are you're probably going to have these guys for two years. if you're the raise you're selling these guys like you're buying them you're buying them as if you're getting two years of control yeah you're going to have to that's just the the way this is going to have to go yeah i think this is dead on it's very aggressive but i think this is dead on and i would do it i'm giving this a 65 okay um i think it's i would personally go check and see like hey what's josh naitler going to cost me you know right sure sure

like Diaz is just like not my favorite guy to like you know shoot your shot on essentially because that's what this is this is the biggest trade you make all winter almost certainly and so like I would prefer to take that shot on like a nailer type or or I would look elsewhere first but if we circle back in January and this is what I can do and this is the best player I can get for you know what I'm willing to spend then this is totally in the ballpark so yeah I'll give it a 55 I think I think it's totally realistic and I think it's the right amount of aggressive. And if they made a trade like this, totally understand. It would sting a little bit because I love Tai Pete and I love Harry for it.

But that's what you have to do. If you're not going to spend money, you have to make trades that sting like this. And you have to do it pretty much every offseason if you want to maintain your competitive window. That's not even a 60 for you though? No. Damn. All right. Stenggy, stengy, stengy.

All right. We got more traits to go over here in just a moment, but first, a reminder of this episode of the Locked-on Marys podcast is brought to you by Select Quote. The World Series, the Super Bowl, the Olympics, the world's top athletes get to play in these top-level sporting events

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Go to select quote.com slash L-O-C-E-D-O-N today to get started. That's select quote.com slash locked on. And you're listening to the Locked On Marries podcast. It is Fan Fiction Friday. We are reading and grading your Mariners trade ideas. and we got this one from Doug. It's very simple. Funny enough, this comes from Doug Montgomery,

and he wants to trade for Jordan Montgomery. I'm sure he doesn't want the merits to trade for him. I don't know. Yeah, he doesn't actually say Jordan Montgomery here. He just says Hanager for Montgomery. Should we assume this is like if you trade Luis Castillo? Yeah. That's the only way this is even like entering the conversation, right?

Yeah. because you're not you're not doing a six-man rotation for the sake of Jordan Montgomery no I mean you're also not adding five million or seven million depending on what Hanager's actual number is this year yeah yeah also not adding that it's uh yeah it's five million because he's making 22 and a half and hander's making 17 and a half we settled on 17 because we saw a lot of reports earlier that's at 15.5 that's like the the 15 and a half is like the cash or whatever but the overall of it I don't know there's like a two Max number is 15.5.

Or there's like a $2 million bonus or something. I don't know. Whatever. It's confusing. So it might be seven. It might be five. Whatever. Either way,

it's a significant chunk of change. And the Mariners aren't doing that for Jordan Montgomery. But yeah, like if the Mariners traded Castillo and hypothetically they didn't get, you know, a major league starter back, would Jordan Montgomery be of interest to me? Yeah.

I think he's better. than he was for Arizona last year. Hard to be much worse, but I think he's better. Like, I think that's pretty clear. It'd be nice to have a lefty in the rotation to kind of mix up with all the righties that you have. It's pretty low risk. I mean, Montgomery is a short-term deal.

So, you know, I think the one thing you have to be careful with here, though. So we see people throw Hanager in a lot of deals to try and get rid of the money. And we just, it's too easy, right? Like you just can't be like, oh, well, yeah, just throw Hanager in that trade and, and do it that way. Like, no, teams don't want bad contracts. The Mariners are not the only team that wants to unload bad contracts. It's one of the reasons why Jordan Montgomery is available at all is because it's a bad contract because that relationship went south in a hurry and he didn't perform this year. So they went out.

So it's interesting. Literally threw him under the bus. Right. So basically what this trade is, again, we're assuming that Luis Castillo is. been traded. Do you want to trade $6 million for Jordan Montgomery? That's really what it is. Hanager has no value to you as he played last year. Do you want to trade? And if you're the Mariners, I would say yes. Like, sure, give me Jordan Montgomery for $6 million. I think he's going to pitch very well if he gets out of Arizona this year. I still believe in Jordan Montgomery,

the pitcher. Why would Arizona? Like, I know Arizona really wants to get out of this situation very clearly. But like can't they trade Montgomery for like a prospect package and save some more money? I'm not saying they can save all 24 million or whatever it is, 22 million. But could they save 12 billion and maybe get a prospect that they like? They might be able to. Like so it's interesting. I think if I were the Mariners, I would absolutely do this. If I were Arizona, I'd consider it. It really depends on what else is out there for Montgomery and how like how much is, is, is the primary goal to save money on Montgomery's contract, or is it to save money and get something that might actually help? Because Hanager, ultimately, not that much value to the diamondbacks.

So, no. Yeah, it's an interesting trade. Again, if we assume that Castillo's been traded, I think it makes a lot of sense for Seattle. I think it could make sense for Arizona, depending on what the market for Montgomery looks like in the trade discussions. Yeah, it's fine. Because again, the way that you framed it, like basically, you know, trading $6 million or $5 million or $7 million, whatever it is, right? For Jordan Montgomery, after, you know, a hypothetical Luis Castillo trade. You've probably cleared at least that much in the Castillo trade.

Probably. Yeah. For a, I mean, ideally you've cleared most of Castio. Unless you got a big leagher back. Right. Yeah. but yeah you're going to have to reinvest some of that back into starting pitching like we've talked about and for a pitcher of the caliber that Montgomery can be wasn't this year but can be and we've seen that

multiple times um you're not going to do much better right so because like when we were doing our um trade louis castillo plans on the patreon my idea was to go to trade for one year of Aaron Savale and that was like 8 million bucks I think 7 million bucks so Montgomery is better than Savale at least he can be so yeah

so I would I would do that for sure I don't know if the Diamondbacks would do it again because maybe they have an opportunity an avenue to shed more of the payroll but if they're desperate if they're just really really desperate to get him out of there then yeah

So I'll give it like I'll give it a 50 Yeah I think it's I think it's like a possibility But there are so many things that have to go Like in a very there's a very small like needle that you're trying to thread To make this trade realistic at all And so because of that I probably go 45 But if you thread that needle then yeah I think this is a deal that makes sense for both sides to some to some extent

Certainly so yeah 45 50 somewhere in that right next trade here comes from ross it's another mitch hanniger trade along with johnny farmello to the twins for byron boston that's a name i haven't heard in a while baron boston all right well i mean when he's healthy baron buckson is a lot of fun but uh you know he is the the the key word yeah yeah exactly right i don't know that he ever has been uh now i love byron bachson like when he plays he's one of my favorite players in baseball freaky athletic one of the fastest guys in baseball still would be an elite center fielder might be the best defensive center fielder the last decade on a per game basis but again per game how many games is that keep on adding qualifiers

for a reason yeah yeah so this is a like i pick this deal because it's very unique it is it is definitely something that we haven't seen really anything close be talked about but also a hundred and two games this year wow yeah a lot of I mean 355 at-bats so the thing with with Buxton is that he is still owed a lot of money and if he is a part-time D8 it's not even just the money it's the years for me right like I have to be tied to the contract through 2028 right it's four more years and it's going to be about $60 million, and there's like up,

uh, I says here, there's up to $11 million in each of those years, uh, and performance incentives and award bonuses. Apparently also has a full no trade clause. Right. So at minimum,

it's four and 60.6, give or take, uh, left on bucks. And that's age 31 through 34 for a guy who, you know, he plays a hundred games and we're like, oh, wow, he stayed healthy this year. Like that's a big red flag, but it's also. Yeah, here's the games played by year for him.

46, 92, 140, 28, 87, 39, 61, 92, 85, 102. Yeah. Since 2015. He hasn't played him more than 103 games since 2017. He's not playing much center field anymore because of the injuries. No, he's going to be. 31 years old next month. Yeah.

Even though this gets me out of the Hanager contracts. I'm out because it also costs me Johnny Farmelis still. It's like, okay, well, am I so desperate to get out of one year of a bad contract that I'm going to give up like a near elite prospect, a guy with that potential? To take on. And be tied to 40 years and $60 million of a guy that

is maybe going to give me 80 games a year. If you do get like one healthy season out of boxing in the next four, and by healthy, I mean like he plays 115 games, 120 games. Yeah. If you get that, he's probably going to put up five wins.

Yeah. But. Oh, he was really good this year when he played. 142 WRC plus. 279, 335, 524,

18 homers and just. He was a 4-1 player in 102 games. Yeah. Just 388 plate appearances. like that's like 50% of a 55 60% of a season like he's still a very good year and he's still a very explosive athlete but he can't play center field all that often i guess i don't need him too so that's the good news but again it's like do you really want to trade 17 million dollars of a sunk contract for what could potentially be 60 million dollars in a sunk contract and give up johnny farmello on top of it no i don't if this was just hanniger for Buxton straight up. Like the twins get out of some long term, like they lose some long term money.

That would be interesting. It's still a big risk for Seattle. Or like Hanager in a lower tier prospect. Right. Because I don't think the twins would trade Buckson for Hanager. Right. In a vacuum,

even though they would be saving $45 million over the next three years, a team that is pretty much already said, we're tapped out. Like we tapped out at our payroll. This is the most we're going to spend. And now they're selling, apparently. So how is that going to impact things? Yeah. Well, plus they have guys like, you know,

Griffin Jackson, Bailey Over and Joe Ryan. They're all entering arbitration now. Royce Lewis. So they're going to have to sell off some of these guys like Pablo Lopez and Byron Buxton. They probably should be looking to sell these guys, maybe even Carlos Correa. So it's an interesting idea. I think that Farmello takes it way over the top. It probably gets the twins to do it, but it doesn't mean you should do it just because the twins. are willing to do it. So it's an interesting idea. It's pretty creative.

So for that, I'll give it a 40, but it is a real difficult, you know, needle to thread. It's terrifying. Yeah. I'll give you a 45 because of a thought-provoking.

And I love me some Byron Bucksner. But, but yeah, I just, I don't think. There's so much risk. Yeah, I don't think I would do it.

I just, I don't, I don't see the point in trading hands. who is a one year dead money cost essentially for a guy who has even a good chance or an average chance to be dead money for more than one year yeah i just i don't think i have the you know what to pull the trigger on this yeah all right we have a few more of your trades to go over here in just a moment but first a reminder this episode of the locked on marries podcast is once again brought to you by Fandul.

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Never waste a hunch and make every moment more with Fanduel, an official sportsbook partner of the NFL. And you're listening to the Lockdown Marys podcast. It is Fan Fiction Friday. Let's wrap things up here with a few more of your trades. Got one here from Ivonski. It's a deal with the Rockies, Justin Lawrence, and Brendan Rogers to the Mariners for Edward Bizarro, Jimmy Joyce, Jared Sundstrom, and Tyler Locklear. So Justin Lawrence has recently become a favorite of yours, Colby.

So this is more of your trade to talk about here. There was a report, what, yesterday or the day before that Rockies are. Both of them. Yeah, both of these guys. So there you go. I assume that's why we have this trade here. I'd assume so as well. So what do you think?

Lawrence had the single worst pitch in Major League Baseball last year. His sinker produced negative 22 run value. It's literally the worst pitch in baseball, and yet he threw it 55% of the time, while his slider is one of the better pitches in baseball, and he threw it 43% of the time. Boy, I wonder if the mayors could figure out how to help Justin Lawrence. Throw more sliders.

Oh, whoa, wow. look at that it works Lawrence funky kind of sidearm or two you know how much I like different arm angles out of the bullpen question is can he throw enough strikes with that slider can he threaten the zone enough with a slider to really you know explode I don't know but he's only going to make about a million bucks in ARP this year that's a guy I want the mergers to take a shot and maybe it's hey ditch the sinker let's go to a four seamer and let's go four seam slider like I think Lawrence is a guy that the mirrors can fix and get you know I mean he was Lawrence is pretty good in

2023. So it's not like you even have to go that far back. So I like Lawrence. Rogers is such like the definition of just like a mediocre big leader. I don't want them, frankly. Like you just rather take the shot on like Ryan Bliss.

Yeah. I just, he's going to make like four or five million bucks. Yeah, he does nothing for me, Brennan Rogers. Yeah. Like honestly,

you might be able to get both of these guys for Tyler Locklear straight up. Yeah. I bet you can get Justin Lawrence for Jared Sundstrom. Yeah, I bet you could. Just straight up. So I think you're overpaying here. Rogers, like, whatever, they acquire him, fine.

But he's just nothing to me. Like, he's like Jonathan India, but a little bit worse. And it's just like, fine, whatever. He's a well below average hitter who spends half of his season at Coors. I'm pretty sure he's a Coors merchant too. I think I looked at him a few weeks ago and I'm pretty sure I remember him being like great at home, bad on the road.

I'm going to look at those splits. You would be absolutely correct about it. Yeah, so I'm super out on Brennan Rogers. I think you're vastly overpaying for a guy, two guys, honestly, who might just get DFA'd at some point this winter. And because we know that the Rockies are trying to shed payroll, they're not going to get a ton for Rogers anyways.

I think you could just, you could probably get both of these guys for Joyce and Sunstrom. Like you might be able to get Lawrence for Jimmy Joyce straight up. And like, I'm not losing sleep if they trade Sunstrom and Jimmy Joyce for anybody. I'm just not losing sleep over losing those guys. But I think Bizarro is at least as good as Lawrence right now. And Locklear for Rogers is a big overpay. And I'm not even a huge Locklear guy. just Brennan Rogers is just that mediocre.

So, yeah, I just think you're overpaying here. So it's going to be like a 30, 35 for me. Yeah, I'm going to go with a, I'm going to go with a 25 to a 30.

Ty hates Brennan Rogers. He sucks. Would you do this deal? Would you do this deal of it was Ryan McMahon instead of Rogers? No. No. Yeah.

Ryan is overrated too, but I'm not paying all that money. I'm not paying all that money for a, mediocre player like yeah the Rockies can go away like like we when we were doing our divisional preview or trade preview like there's a reason that conversation to 30 seconds the Rockies have nothing they have nothing they have Brent Doyle they have maybe Justin Lawrence yeah and they have maybe Nolan Jones maybe yeah Britain Doyle's a good player they're not trading him so after that you want to give us you know

lottery ticket prices on Lawrence or Nolan Jones, fine. But like, I have Brennan Rogers in my system already. I have like three Brennan Rogers and I pay those guys league minimum. Yeah. If I wake up one morning and I see the Mariner's have traded for Brennan Rogers, I'm rolling my eyes. Arthur has a deal here. It's, hey, it's another Mitch Hanneger trade. Mitch Hanager, Harry Ford, Ty Pete and Logan

Evans for Reese Hoskins and Devin Williams. So Mariners Brewer's trade. Yeah. So essentially the deal like Hanneger for Hoskins and then it's the plethora of prospects for for Devin Williams Ford Pete and Evans for Williams for one year of Devin Williams it's a lot it's a lot to give up and you're adding and you're adding significant money six yeah six seven million well what's the eight million I think is his I think I think after he yeah they declined his club option which was like it was going to be like it was going to be like 10 but I think his arm is still like eight or nine yeah and

honestly if you're the royal or sorry if you're the brewers why would you take on hand or like hoskins plays a position that you don't really have an answer at right now like it's not like there's a first basement waiting in the wings in milwaukee and and you know the outfield in milwaukee decently crowded i mean don't they have a tyler block or whatever yeah have a black and play third like they're not they're not desperate uh it'll be interesting to see like what they do at shortstop since they're definitely going to lose Adomas, but they don't really have like

like Reese Hoskins if the money's the same, Hoskins is still more productive than Hanager and he's just a better fit for their roster. So you probably have to add something to Hanager to get Devin Williams or to get Hoskins. So maybe you look at this as Hanager and like Evans

for Hoskins. I don't know if Hoskins is any better than Luke Grayley. He did not have a good year this year. So not sure why I would do that. that and then it's it's forward and pete for devon williams probably cost more than that uh so yeah it just feels like we're like a player short here uh but also i don't i just i'm not quite sure how the mariners would view devon williams and how the royals i did again how the brewers rhes hoskins needs to be royal apparently how the brewers would uh to be fair he does kind of

feel like a royal he does he does yeah i mean it's it's yeah so I'll say 45. I don't think it's bad. I just think it's... I'm going to go 40. Yeah, like, I think it's in that range. Like, it's not bad, but, you know, it just feels all, everything about it just feels a little bit off. Yeah.

You know, so, yeah, yeah, yeah, I'll go 40, 45. Last trade of the day comes from Quinn, Luis Castillo to the Mets for Ryan Clifford, Jonah Tong, and Jesus. bias. So a pure prospect package for Castillo. Nothing about the money here. So we're, I assume they're taking on all the money. Right. Which I think is baked into the trade cost here. That, you know, the mayors are only getting prospects and they're not getting elite prospects because the Mets are taking on the entire contract. Like, I think that's why. Now, do I think the Mariners want a prospect only package for Luis Castillo? No, I think they want a major leaguer for Luis Castillo. But if somebody's going to take all of the money off their hands, they might be

more inclined to take a prospect package. I'm not sure if this is it. But there are some interesting guys here. Clifford's more of a power over a hit tool guy, but there's real power here, left-handed hitter. I can play first base, can play in the outfield a little bit. He's a corner guy. Interesting bat. I don't think he's a good enough headliner for me to move castillo. Now, if I have Sasaki and this is the best I can get, maybe I'd probably still roll with a six man if this is the best I could get, but it's in the ballpark. Clifford's probably a top 10 prospect if he comes over to the mariner system. He's in that range. Tong is interesting. He's got really good stuff, but he's on the smaller side. There's not much projectability left,

and he's struggling to throw strikes. 47 walks, I believe, in like 100 innings. That's, that's not exactly marinary, right? They don't like guys who don't throw. strikes at a very high level. But again, the stuff is really good. But he's on the smaller side. I think he's six foot like 180. And there's not much room left for projection. So there's a real shot that he's a bullpen guy, which I mean, it's fine.

Like he's a good prospect. Like he's a good prospect. He's a trucking out a ton of dudes. Yeah. Like the stuff is very good. It's a really good fastball, good curveball. Like it's a very interesting guy. But it's like 40 command 45 control.

Not guys. The mayor's typically go after. And then Baez is just a really toolsy, you know, 19 year old shortstop who's playing in high A right now. So he's not, again, not a bad prospect. All these guys are top 30 in the Mariners system. Clifford might be top 10. Tong's probably top 15ish, give or take. And, you know, Baez is probably 20 to 25.

Like they're good, solid prospects. Are they enough for Luis Castillo? even if you're shedding that entire money, the entire contract. For me, no. But again, like, if the Mariners made this deal, I would look at it and I'd be like, okay, I want a major leager, but if they can't get it, and they're going to go with a, this is more bulk than it is upside, but maybe that's okay because, like, if you told me, like,

the Mariners could either have Jet Williams or they could have Clifford and Tongue, I might take the duo. I might take some bulk in this case because I get two shots at an impact player. So it's interesting. I don't think it's what the Mariners are looking for if they do trade Luis Castillo. Yeah. And I don't think that like adding like, oh, well, if they want a big leaguer, like just give them Jeff McNeil. Like, no, they want a good big leaguer.

So I just don't think the Mariners are going to be looking for something like this. But in the right set of circumstances, this is, it's interesting. It's in the range. I think if you replace Clifford with like Jet Williams, the mayors would seriously consider this or or Sprode or, you know, somebody like maybe even Drew Gilbert. Like I think the mayors would consider this if the headliner was a little bit better.

But I think ultimately what the mayors really want if they're going to trade Luis Castillo, even if it means not saving all of that money is a big league productive player. Yeah. I mean, there's a ton of different avenues you can go down after this trade that makes the trade a bit more palatable. Now we can't really take that into account here, right, when it comes to just grading the trade. But yeah, I mean, like, depends on what you do with the money. And maybe you

flip a couple of these guys that you get and all that stuff, right? And maybe you have Sasaki in tow. So it makes more sense to trade Castillo. But yeah, you pretty much summed up my thoughts on this. In a vacuum, I don't think this is what the Mariners want back in a Castillo deal. You know, I think they're trying to repurpose that money, and it doesn't necessarily mean that they're repurposing it in free agency. Maybe they're repurposing it for an offensive player that they're getting back in a Castillo deal, right? So I just don't think this accomplishes what the ultimate goal is with trading Luis Castillo. So I think in general, for taking on the whole contract, I think the compensation is fine. So I'll give you a 50.

So like in a vacuum, I think the trade is like a 50. But for, you know, all the circumstances that come into play here, it's probably more like a 40. But yeah. Yeah, I'll split the difference. I'll say 45. It's just not quite enticing enough for the Mariners unless they have real plans to do something without money. Or if they're acquiring a player that they are planning to, you know, flip for another player.

And we just, you know, it's possible that they make this trade, a trade like this and you go, and then like three weeks later, they use one of the prospects. they get and they go land a good bat who's making $16 million. And you're like, oh, okay. So really it's the $16 million bat and these two prospects for Castillo. So yeah, like, but we just don't have the benefit of that. So, yeah, it's solid. I say it's solid, but I don't think it's what the Mariners would want to do.

Yeah. All right. Well, that's going to do it for our show. Thank you all for all of your trades. And thank you for joining us for another week of locked on Mariners for Colby Pat node, I'm Tiding Gazzalas. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L0 underscore Mariners. You can follow me at Tidang Azales and Colby at C-Pat-11 at C-PAT-1-1.

We're also on Blue Sky. You can follow me at TDG, Colby at MLB Colby, and the show at Locked-on Mariners. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day and we'll see you next time. Peace.