Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Fan Fiction Friday: Arcia, Caminero, Burger, and More

Episode Date: November 8, 2024

Fan Fiction Friday is back after a two-week hiatus! Ty and Colby grade your Mariners trade ideas, including deals for Orlando Arcia, Junior Caminero, Jake Burger, and more.Ask us questions!Follow the ...show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @TyDaneGonzalez | @CPat11For your next listen, check out the Locked On MLB podcast. Prepare for the Fall Classic with Sully, who has it all covered every single day. Click HERE to listen now. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network. Your Team. Every Day.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!Arena ClubWhether you’re buying, selling, trading, or displaying—Arena Club is the card-collecting platform you have to check out. Right now, you can get 10% off your first Slab Pack or card purchase by going to ArenaClub.com/lockedonmlb and use code lockedonmlb. RobinhoodRobinhood Gold provides the privileges of a high net worth for any net worth. These generous benefits are now available for only $5/month. The new gold standard is here with Robinhood Gold.Sign up at robinhood.com/gold   Terms apply, for product specific disclosures visit robinhood.com/gold. Investing involves risk. Rate may change. Gold membership is offered by Robinhood Gold, LLC.   PrizePicksGo to prizpicks.com/lockedonmlb and use code lockedonmlb to win $50 instantly when you play $5. You don't even need to win to receive your $50 bonus, it's guaranteed! Prizepicks. Run Your Game. IbottaIbotta is a free app that lets you earn cash back every time you shop. Right now, Ibotta is offering our listeners $5 just for trying Ibotta by using the code LOCKEDONMLB when you register. Just go to the App Store or Google Play store and download the FREE app to start earning cash back when you use code LOCKEDONMLB. eBay MotorsFrom brakes to exhaust kits and beyond, eBay Motors has over 122 million parts to keep your ride-or-die alive. With all the parts you need at the prices you want, it’s easy to bring home that big win. Keep your ride-or-die alive at EbayMotors.com. Eligible items only. Exclusions apply. eBay Guaranteed Fit only available to US customers.GametimeDownload the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONMLB for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Download Gametime today. What time is it? Gametime. FanDuelNow through September 22nd, ALL FanDuel customers can bet FIVE DOLLARS and get a THREE WEEK free trial of NFL Sunday Ticket from YouTube and YouTube TV. Visit FANDUEL.COM to get started. FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

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Starting point is 00:00:00 After a couple weeks off, fanfiction Friday is back. Let's get into your Mariners trade ideas coming up here on the Locked on Marriss podcast. Colby, hit it. You are Locked on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day. Ahoy, Sailors, it is Friday, November 8, 2024. This is tighting is awesome.
Starting point is 00:00:28 Colby Patnaud for the Lockdown Marys podcast. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. It is Fan Fiction Friday. We'll be reading out some of your Mariners trade proposals and grading them based on things like creativity, uniqueness, and of course, viability. But before we get into that, shout out to our title sponsor today, FanDuel. New customers can place a $5 bet and you'll get started with $150 in bonus bets if you win that first $5 bet. Visit FanDuel.com to get started. And if you want to hear from me and Colie even more and help support the show, check out our Patreon.
Starting point is 00:01:01 All you have to do is click the link. in the description of this episode. So let's kick off fan fiction Friday here with a trade from Jack, who has the mayor is getting Orlando Arcia from the Atlanta Braves for Ryan Bliss and Jeter Martinez. I think I'm good on this. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:01:21 Arcia is coming off a year in which he was one of the worst hitters in all of baseball. Yeah. Literally first percentile and batting run value. Yeah. Negative 32. Yeah, so he was a league average bet the last two years 105 WRC plus in 2022, 100 in 2020. He's a really good defender.
Starting point is 00:01:46 But outside of those two years offensively, he's been garbage, right? He hasn't even been like slightly below average. I guess 2020 and Milwaukee he was. But like this year, 72 WRC plus, that's almost unplayable. frankly. I think I'd rather just see what I have in Ryan Bliss. Plus it's going to cost me Geter Martinez on top of Bliss. I get RCA has a good glove and he's cheap.
Starting point is 00:02:15 It's $2 million this year and a $2 million club option. Like that's nothing. But yeah, this is a guy that, you know, I might not even pick up that club option in 2026, even at $2 million with how bad he is offensively. Yeah, this isn't about the contract. though. I mean, like $2 million, you take,
Starting point is 00:02:35 you know, bigger shots on guys for more than $2 million bucks, but no, because like if he's your everyday second baseman, right? Like he shouldn't be.
Starting point is 00:02:44 He's not good enough to be an everyday player. He's not better than Dylan Moore, uh, who's your utility guy and frankly, based off the year he's coming off of, he's not, you know, one and a half million dollars better than Ryan Bliss.
Starting point is 00:02:58 Uh, isn't a guy who runs the bases particularly well. He's slow. He doesn't hit. you know at his ceiling is a 105ish WRC plus player which is fine but you have to trust that he can get there again coming off of this year where he is legitimately one of the worst players in baseball he does nothing well there the only thing the only two things that he did at an above average clip last year is his squared up percentage was 59th percentile his chase percentage was 56 percentile
Starting point is 00:03:31 he doesn't do anything exceptionally well at the plate yeah he hits 17 bombs this year which at shortstop or second base is valuable but 79 on base but yeah the slash line 21 271 3 54 that's what I have to deal with to get 17 home runs out of that position I'm good yeah just roll with Ryan bliss yeah I'd rather just see what I have in bliss like I Dylan Moore is a better player than rcia anyways so So he doesn't work as a utility guy. He shouldn't be your starting shortstop or your starting second baseman. Again, the money, fine, whatever. Like if you're telling me, hey, can we get Arcia for, you know, a bucket of balls? You know, like, and try that. Sure, I guess.
Starting point is 00:04:17 Because it gets only two million bucks. But no, like, I have to give up Ryan Bliss to get this guy. No, I'd rather- And Guter Martinez. Sure. I mean, but like even even just speaking strictly in a 20-25 sense, there's a good chance Ryan Bliss helps me more. in 2025 than Rcia does.
Starting point is 00:04:34 So now this is just an overpay for a pretty mediocre player with at a position where your in-house options, although they are few, are actually all better than RCA like, no. I don't, I don't know if RCA would make the opening day roster, as it's currently constructed, because he's going to be behind Dylan Moore. He's going to be behind J.P. Crawford. He's going to be behind. would be behind Ryan Bliss. So I guess if you tried him here, you take care of that.
Starting point is 00:05:05 He's probably behind, I'd rather have Josh Rojas back, quite frankly. So yeah. No, this is, this is, I just don't think RCA is the guy. Yeah. You hit on the uniqueness aspect, because we haven't be his name. But I'll give you a 35. Yeah. Even with the uniqueness boost. RSI is just not it. Like if that's an if that is a solution at second or whatever you don't have one. All right. Next trade here comes from Eudanus Haslam. Craziest one yet, not sure why either teams would do it,
Starting point is 00:05:42 but Bryce Miller for junior Camerro. Ooh. It's interesting. It's fun. What do you think? It certainly is out there. Yeah. And it certainly is unique.
Starting point is 00:05:56 It's pretty interesting. Camerro, an interesting player. probably a third baseman long term. I do think that there are some people who think he can't play short, but this is a guy, you know, top prospect in baseball this year at certain points. He's only 21 years old. I came up to the bigs this year and was, you know, fine overall for a 21-year-old. He's interesting.
Starting point is 00:06:21 He asked, you have to, you know, think about this if you're the Mariners, but you're also giving up a lot of, you know, you're also giving up a lot of certainty in your rotation. And Bryce St. He's a guy who we feel like we know what the floor is and we know that the ceiling is actually higher. And Miller probably should finish in the top 10 of Sanyung boats this year in its first full major league season.
Starting point is 00:06:43 So I think if you're trying to trade for Caminero, this is what it would cost. It would cost Bryce Miller. I think actually Bryce Miller is the only guy that gets it done because he has a higher floor than Lou. And he's not making as much money as a Kirby or a Gilbert. right um so yeah but i think you said i think you you nailed it like i don't know why either team would do this because the mariners are trading a proven bat or a proven arm for a bat that pretty good chance he hits like he's a really really good prospect yeah but if you're the raise like
Starting point is 00:07:18 why are you trading six years of camminero for five years of miller and knowing miller is going to be arb eligible after next year because he's going to be super two i would say there's just two much short term risk here for me. I think long term Camerrero's going to hit. He's going to be a really good player. But I think right now, like, who helps me more? It's Bryce Miller. So I wouldn't do it because of that short term risk.
Starting point is 00:07:41 But man, this is a lot of fun. It is a really fun trade. If you're a fan of bat speed, Caminero has one of the fastest bats in baseball. Oh, yeah. So, like, he, the power is legit. It's easy power. He's going to get there.
Starting point is 00:07:56 Like, I have no doubts that Caminero's. After I got done recording with Ryan. Divish a couple months ago. It was like right after they played the race, he was like, that dude had one of the most impressive BPs I've ever seen in my entire life. Yeah, Camonero is, I'd be shocked if he wasn't like an All-Star.
Starting point is 00:08:14 The question is, do you want to risk Bryce Miller this year knowing that at 21 years old, Camerro might not be that guy for a year or two? Yeah. And then how do you replace Bryce Miller? You really trust Logan Evans? So, yeah, it's interesting. to say the least. And it's kind of, it, essentially what it really is, it's, it's kind of a more like souped up version of the, uh, Michael Paneda for Jesus Montero trade. Yeah. Uh, where it's like, yeah, we have this guy. He's been a good league for a little bit and he's been really good and we think there's even more in the tank. It's exciting. But here's this prospect who's been up for about a month total. And he, man, he's got that plus power and he plays a premium position and blah, blah, blah. And it's like, yeah, that one didn't work. And it's like, yeah, that one didn't work.
Starting point is 00:09:00 for the Mariners, but that doesn't mean they shouldn't try to make trades like that for the right players in the future. And Camdenaro could be that right guy. Like if the Mariners made this trade, I wouldn't be mad at them. I'd be like, okay, like that, that's interesting. That's a very interesting move. I just think it carries a little more risk for the Mariners in the short term. And I think that's where the mayor's focus needs to be on 25, 26. Yeah. And so it just doesn't quite line up just right, but this is a really fun trade. And I, but I think the race would also probably look at and be like, no, We're not trained six years of Caminero for anything, really. It checks off a lot of the boxes that I'm looking for here with this exercise.
Starting point is 00:09:39 So I'm going to give you a 60. I wouldn't do it again because of the short-term risk. So that does decrease the grade a little bit. And also I just don't think it would happen. Right. So that decreases the grade a little bit, but I'm going to give you a 60. Yeah, it's fun. Realism's probably not there.
Starting point is 00:09:59 but yeah it's a lot of fun this would be a fascinating deal to break down if it actually happened yeah so yeah i'll go i'll go 60 a lot of fun in this one yeah good job all right so we are going to look at more of your trade ideas here in just a moment but first a reminder this episode of the locked on marries podcast is brought to you by i bata and fandul as you all know i love thanksgiving but what i don't love is grocery shopping right now though i bata is making your thanksgiving easier with cash back on everything you need to make your perfect holiday meal so you can get the turkey and your favorite sides for free. This month, I BOTA is giving new users 100% cashback on your Thanksgiving Feast. Just add the offers in the app to redeem for everything you need
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Starting point is 00:12:10 We are reading out some of your Mariners trade ideas and grading them. This trade comes from Zach, and it's a deal with the Minnesota twins. Michael O'Royle, Logan Evans, J.T. Chagua, and Jared Sunstrom to Minnesota for Griffin, Jackson, Willie Castro. it's going to cost you more than Michael Oroyo as the headliner. Yeah. You know, Jacks is fantastic. And you get him for three years. Like he's R1 this year.
Starting point is 00:12:39 So, you know, I think when you adjust for inflation, all that stuff, think about the Edwin Diaz trade. Now, he's not quite as good as Diaz. He's only had the one great year, blah, blah, blah, blah. But I think that's the threshold you're looking for is the Diaz trade. And I mean, what's the, what's the, uh, Kelnick kind of, you know, uh, corollary here? It's probably Emerson or Laz is probably how the twins would feel about that. And I don't think that attaching the, you know, $7 million of Willie Castro is going to do much, uh, to, you know, drop his value. So I think the Jacks thing, um, I'd love to have them.
Starting point is 00:13:20 As you guys know, I'm a big proponent of going out and getting a high leverage reliever. If you can get one who's making like two and a half. half three million bucks as opposed to seven eight nine ten plus million dollars i'd be willing to pay up a little bit for that but yeah royo is just not a good enough headliner here like logan evans and j t shark wall for like willie castro probably gets it done like that that's solid but arroyo for jacks i don't think that's going to happen if you could get that done i would do that as much as i like michael arroyo uh i would absolutely do this deal if i could get it i just don't think the twins are going to be essentially desperate to move
Starting point is 00:13:56 $10 million with these two players and not get the full value, particularly of Jacks. I mean, Castro, again, he's a rental. He's more of a utility type moving around. He's not going to be that expensive. I think, you know, like a Logan Evans for one year of him. Right. Like a Logan Evans for Willie Castro swap is like, that seems like that's in the ballpark to me, roughly.
Starting point is 00:14:21 Maybe a little bit more, maybe a little, a little bit less. But we're not talking about like, you have to get. give up Michael Oroyo to get Willie Castro. I don't think so. Sure. Sure. Yeah. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:14:31 So you're almost there. I just think the Jackson thing is just tips it in the scale of like unrealistic a little too much. And you haven't compensated for that. So I'd probably say like a 45, 40 somewhere in that range. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I'm in the same range as you as well.
Starting point is 00:14:46 I just think that you miss the mark in terms of viability here with the jacks aspect of the deal. If you can get it, if you can get them for this price to do it. Doing backflips. Yeah. Yep. Connor has a deal here with the nationals, Luis Garcia, and Mason Thompson to the Mariners for Harry Ford,
Starting point is 00:15:01 Tyler Locklear, and Michael Morales. Yeah. I like Louis Garcia. Pretty good player. One of the more underrated players in baseball. He's got 20 home run pop. Pretty good athlete.
Starting point is 00:15:17 He's interesting, to say the least. So that's the headliner here. Mason Thompson, you're basically hoping that you can fix him or make a tweak because he's not very good at least, you know, on the surface.
Starting point is 00:15:34 Now, he was pretty good in 2022, but that was in, what, 24 innings? So, yeah, Mason Thompson is, he's a throwing. He's also coming off of TJ. Yeah, so like that's a literal throwin, whatever. He's not that important to this deal. Luis Garcia is good.
Starting point is 00:15:52 like he's a good player. I think he's got three years of club control, if I'm remembering correctly. Yeah, he's a good player. He hits for a pretty good average. I think he's got 20 home run. He's got a 20-20 season in there, I'm sure. Pretty good defender, not elite at second base, but pretty good.
Starting point is 00:16:10 You know, doesn't strike out a ton, doesn't swing and miss a ton. Doesn't hit the ball especially hard about league average, exit velos. But he's a good player. Like he's a legitimately good player and he could be your solution at second base. And I think he's probably a good enough athlete that he could slide over and play third base if, you know, Cole Young comes up and all that. So I like Garcia quite a bit for the price tag of, let's see, Ford, Locklear, Morales, I don't think that's enough to get three years of Garcia. Again, whenever Harry Ford is the headliner in a trade, really makes a good. kind of difficult to evaluate that because he is such a polarizing prospect across baseball that,
Starting point is 00:16:58 I mean, again, it's possible that the Nationals front office loves Harry Ford. It's also possible they really don't like him. They don't think he's much of what they think he's just like a solid prospect, not a top 100 guy. Like that's how wide the ranges are on Harry Ford. So it's a little bit tough here. I think Garcia, if you want him for three years coming off of the year he's coming off of at the age that he is. I think that probably is going to cost you a Cole Young type. It might, they might honestly ask for Laz and that's not ridiculous.
Starting point is 00:17:31 I don't think you should do it. But I think Cole Young is probably, you know, the more realistic player here. But, you know, I would say Ford, Locklear and Morales for Garcia straight up, feels like it's in the ballpark.
Starting point is 00:17:48 It doesn't feel like that's, outrageous again obviously beauty in the eye of the beholder but if i told you it's cole young and type heat instead is that a huge difference between what it was proposed here like a little but not significantly so um i'd say 45 ish like it's close i just i i think that uh i think you're undervaluing louis garcia uh a little bit here i'm between a 45 and a 50 i think it's close enough that I could see it happening. It's just, again, the question about how do the Nationals value carry forward? Do they think he can actually catch?
Starting point is 00:18:27 Right. It's a big part of his value because if they don't, then given where his bat is right now, how valuable do you think he is as like a corner outfielder? Yeah, I think, like, if Garcia were to be moved, first of all, I think if the nationals are going to move an infielder, it's going to be C.J. Abrams. But if they do move Garcia, like, the nationals are kind of the team that's looking to make a jump this year.
Starting point is 00:18:56 They want to go from bad to good and have a shot. They really need pitching, and the Mariners don't have that to offer. Like, you're not giving up Logan Gilbert for Abrams or Garcia. So this might be a situation where you need that third team involved, somebody who's got the young pitcher and you have the young bats to give the team that has the pitcher, blah, blah, blah. But yeah, Garcia Abrams, two guys that, you know, we probably should be monitoring a little bit this winter. Just the nationals and the Mariners don't line up particularly well in trade talks. But again, it only takes, you know, one team to step up.
Starting point is 00:19:35 And we just don't know how the nationals feel about the Mariners, you know, young hitters. but the Mariners, they don't have the pitching that we think the nationals are going to go after. Yeah. All right. So we have a couple more trades of yours to go over in just a moment. But first, a reminder of this episode of the Lockdown Marys podcast is brought to you by Robin Hood. With Robin Hood Gold, you don't need a silver spoon to eat up the financial favors of the 1%. Robin Hood Gold allows others to get the rates and perks usually reserved for the high society.
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Starting point is 00:20:38 Investing involves risk, rate may change. Gold membership is offered by Robin Hood Gold LLC. And you're listening to the Lockdown Marrars podcast. It is Fan Fiction Friday. We got a couple more trades viewers to go over here. This one comes from John Stanton hates us. Giants get Ty Pete, Trent Thornton, and Michael Morales. And the mayor is get Camillo DeVal.
Starting point is 00:21:03 Looking for a high leverage relief option here. Who's coming off of a bad season but was an all-star the year before. What do you think, Colby? Yeah, it's interesting. DeValle was so bad this year. He got sent down like in September. Did he really? I didn't even know that.
Starting point is 00:21:21 I'm pretty sure. He got demoted at one point this year. So yeah, it's an interesting guy, former, you know, former high leverage reliever with really great metrics. 2023 was off the charts this last year. Not very, but a lot of the underlying metrics are still really good for him. He has one of the best sliders in baseball regularly running 40 plus percent whiff rates on that pitch. Even this year, when he struggled, opponents at 184 off of his slider with a 272 slug and a 44.8% whiff rate.
Starting point is 00:22:01 He is a slider cutter guy. It is kind of a similar arsenal to Emmanuel Claese, where he just alternates between those pitches. So that's pretty fun to think about. It throws hard. You know, the cutter is 99 miles an hour. This is essentially Class A light. The big difference between this year and last year and the reason why he struggled so much is that the cutter was smashed.
Starting point is 00:22:26 Like it was in 2023, opponents on the cutter hit 175 with a 213 slug. This last year, against that same pitch, opponents hit 284 with a 552 slug. So why did things go sideways for Deval in in 2024? The cutter was trash. Slyder was still great, as good or if not better than it was the year before. But his primary fastball was batting practice.
Starting point is 00:22:57 So yeah, there's a bit of risk here. He's making some money in arbitration, but you do get him for a few years. So can you fix the cutter? Is this just a one-off or is this a legitimate? problem that's going to continue to show up for him. That's the big question here. And so when you're talking about giving up Tai Pete, you know, you have to be a little bit careful. The Mariners really like Tai Pete quite a bit.
Starting point is 00:23:21 Thornton and Morales, whatever, doesn't matter. So, yeah, it's interesting. At three years of club control, would I take the shot on Doval if it cost me Tai Pete? Probably, like, he's really good when he's good. But if the Mariners want to look at this and be like, look, we just, we don't want to risk it. I would totally understand that thought process. So I think you're, I don't know, I don't know if the Giants would do this is the thing, though, either. So I think because I'm not sure the Mariners or the Giants would do this deal, it's probably a 4550.
Starting point is 00:24:02 But I do think DeVal is a really interesting guy. And again, I like that the idea that the Mariners would go out and actually look at the back to their bullpen and be like, yeah, this isn't good enough. Let's go get better. Doval, and I think there's a reasonable chance he rebounds, like a fairly reasonable chance that he rebounds and he's great again. And if that's the case, you're, I mean, Tai Pete might become a really good player,
Starting point is 00:24:27 but you're not going to be mad about, you know, what you got for him. So say 45, 50, somewhere in that range. It's pretty solid. I think the Giants would do this, but that's assuming that they're like, all right, we need to get out on Deval. Because it's going to get worse and worse and his value is going to diminish and diminish and diminish. But yeah, that's just assuming. Right.
Starting point is 00:24:47 So I don't know. I'll go 45 to 50 because I think the Giants probably look at Deval, especially with their bullpen issues that they had this year. Their bullpen wasn't particularly good. I think they're going to look at them in a similar light. Like, yeah, we can get this guy to bounce back. Right. So they're probably not going to just jump the gun on that, take this.
Starting point is 00:25:09 so yeah but it's interesting like if this happened like I'd be like yeah that's realistic so I'll go 50 I'll go 50 on it but yeah I'm just not sure if the Giants would but I would be fine with this so the Marys did it all right last trade here comes from switch
Starting point is 00:25:24 marries receive Andrew Nardi and Jake Burger for Ty Pete Michael Morales Tyler Locklear and Taylor Sos Sato this was a deal that you and I threw around when planning our offseason plan actually I did have a burger and Nardi deal in my own off-season plan before we combined our plans and created the master's
Starting point is 00:25:46 that you guys saw a couple days ago. So, yeah, this is pretty much on the ballpark with that. I forget, here, let me bring up the one that I had, but in the meantime, what do you think about this deal? Yeah, that's fine. I think Nardi is the more expensive player of the two. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, Burger is kind of one of those guys that like a traditional baseball fan thinks is like, yeah, like that's, that's the guy you're going for here.
Starting point is 00:26:15 And I look at, when I look at Jake Burger, I look at it and I see an imperfect understanding of how games are won. Yeah, name the movie. But, yeah, like, Burger to me is just like, he is so, like, he's the definition of me. Like, can't play defense, doesn't draw walks, doesn't get on base. but he's going to hit 250 and he's going to hit 25 bombs and people are going to be like, oh, he's big time power hitter. Oh, he's so good. And it's like, no, he's about average. He would be a more traditional first baseman than the marries have had in a little while here.
Starting point is 00:26:50 Sure. Like, I mean, again, does he help the Mariners? Yeah, probably. So, like, I'm not saying like, I don't want him. It's just that when I look at Jake Berger and I look at his, what he does, like what his profile is. I'm just like, this is an imperfect understanding of where runs come from. because the guy doesn't get on base. He doesn't help you defense.
Starting point is 00:27:09 He costs you runs defensively and on the base pass. But he hits ball far and he hits for a decent average and he doesn't strike out a ton. Chick stigs a long ball. So automatically like he's the guy and it's like, fine, whatever. He's just so mediocre. Like that's what Jake Berger is. He's mediocre, but he's club controlled. So fine.
Starting point is 00:27:27 We better than the plan for a reason. Yeah. I mean, Nardi's interesting. Lefty with big time swing and miss stuff. So I think you get him. him for four or five years, if I'm remembering correctly off the top of my head. Like you get him for quite a while. And so that's why this is going to cost.
Starting point is 00:27:43 So, you know, would like a replacement level first baseman, would that cost you, Tai Pete, Morales, Locklear, Saucato? No. Like, no. I like, Jake Berger is the 2024 version of Ryan Healy. And Ryan Healy costs you Amelia Pagan. So like, you want to be real about this? What would, like, using that as the comp, like, it should cost you Colin Snyder to get, like,
Starting point is 00:28:06 straight up for burger. But Nardi is the key here. He's a bigger piece of this trade than I think people realize. And so Pete Morales and like Sosato for Nardi, I don't know if that's enough to get this guy. It might be because he's only really done it once. And even when I say done it, like you're really counting on some underlying numbers here.
Starting point is 00:28:27 He's done it twice. He's done it twice. So, but you're still counting on like some underlying numbers here to look at Nardi and be like, this guy is like a legit high leverage option. Now, they're not like super underlined, right? We're not, we're not looking at like, you know, his whiff rate on the one two fastball. Like, no, we're not talking about that.
Starting point is 00:28:45 But, you know, there's some XERA and stuff like that, blah, blah, blah. Sure. It's an interesting deal. I think it's probably in the ballpark. So I would say, you know, 50. So I think it's pretty solid. The deal that I had in my individual offseason plan was Burger and Nardi for Taipee. Logan Evans and Ash and Izzy.
Starting point is 00:29:08 Yeah. Maybe that's a little bit light. It's lighter compared to switch his deal here because he has Locklear involved as well. No Izzy, but Saucato's involved. Kind of depends on how you feel about Izzy versus Locklear. Oh, Lockler is a better prospect of Izzy. I have legitimate concerns about Locklear.
Starting point is 00:29:31 Yeah, but he's a better prospect than Izzy right now. Okay, then you put Izzy above Locklear in your next prospect list. Do it. Well, considering we have to help February to do that, and you'll forget by then. I better see Locklear ahead. I better see Izzy ahead of Locklear.
Starting point is 00:29:46 Like Locklear's going to survive this off season. Yeah. So I don't know. The Marlins, who the heck knows what the Marlins are going to do, right? And like if they think they can compete in two years, they might prefer a guy like Locklear. If they think they be three or four years before they can even compete,
Starting point is 00:30:04 they might prefer a guy like Izzy or, you know, even somebody like, I mean, probably not going to trade him this winter, but like Ryan Sloan is probably a guy that they would prefer instead of somebody who's a little bit closer with a lower floor or a higher floor, rather. I'll give me like a 55 because you're pretty much in the ballpark with where I was in terms of the valuation on Nardi and Burger. So yeah, it's just Nardi is so hard to evaluate because again, he's a lefty who strikes dudes out. out quite a bit, I might add. So there's a lot of value in that. And he's a guy that had quite a bit of bad luck this year. Like, yeah, it's a 507 ERA, but it's a 333 fit.
Starting point is 00:30:51 So, yeah, that might cost a lot. But I mean, you know, Tai Pete, Logan Evans, or you had Morales in this deal, right? It's Morales, Pete, and Locklear and Sauceto. You know, all those guys, you know, the three prospects, I mean, those are legitimate prospects. So there's quite a bit of value in there going back to Miami. It's just, yeah, what do they want to do? And how much do they value Nardi?
Starting point is 00:31:17 Is Narni like a guy that they would only take Harry Ford for? Because at that point, I'm out. Right. Yeah, the other thing with Nardi, too, finished the year on the 60-day I. Yeah. So health is a big concern. And it's a belbow. The Mariners literally just dealt with something very similar in Gregory Santos.
Starting point is 00:31:37 Yeah. So that's the other thing. So if like the elbow is a legitimate concern, then, yeah, you're probably just out in general. You have to, yeah, you have to think about like, if I don't get anything from Nardi, how does that impact the rest of this deal? Well, if you don't get anything from Nardi, you're not giving up Taipei. So you have to feel really good about the elbow to, you know, add a guy like that. Like you might take the shot on Locklear for Nardi straight up, even if you don't feel great about the elbow.
Starting point is 00:32:03 But I do think the Mariners value type heat more than they value, uh, locklear. All right. So thank you everyone for your trade proposals. That's going to do it for our show. Thank you so much for joining us here on the locked on mirrors podcast for Colby Patnaud. I'm Taday Gonzalez. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L0 underscore mirrors. You'll follow me at Taday and Colby at C-Pat 11. That's C-PAT-1-1. We're also on blue sky. You can follow me at TDG, Colby at MLB Colby and the show at Locked-on Mariners. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day and we'll see you next time. Peace.

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