Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Fan Fiction Friday: Luis Rengifo, Ian Happ, Cody Bellinger, and More

Starting point is 00:00:00 Well, we started this week talking a lot about the Cubs, so it's only right we end the week talking a lot about the Cubs, who you have a couple trade ideas with coming up here on the Lockdown Marrars podcast. Colby, hit it. You are Locked on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day. Ahoy, sailors. It is Friday, July 5th, 2024.

Starting point is 00:00:28 This is Tiding Gizalas and Colby Patnode for the Locked-on Marers podcast. Part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team, every day. today's show it's fan fiction friday the show where you submit your marriage trade ideas and colby and i react to them before we get into this week's batch shout out to our title sponsor today booking dot com booking dot yeah the right stay can make you a fan of any city even your rivals check out booking dot com for your stay today and if you want to hear from me and colby even more and help support the show check out our patreon the link is in the description and you can sign up for a free seven-day trial We are going to kick off fanfiction Friday here with Tyler, who has a deal with the Colorado Rockies.

Starting point is 00:01:09 Mayors get Brandon Rogers and Elias Diaz for Michael O'Royo, Jonathan Clase, and Taylor Dollar. Are we still doing this with Bernard Rogers? Like, are we still pretending that he's a thing? Uh, because he's just kind of a dude. Like, he's, yeah, whatever. Sub 100 WRC plus season. It's a good defender. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:01:32 I mean like he does hit for a high average I will mention that like he it's not a it's not a high wrc plus it's not a league average wrc plus with 281 322 402 that's not a bad slash line not terrible but i'd rather have dylan more like i don't think bernard rogers does anything for you and ds is you could have both to be fair you could you could but you know then how would ryan bliss get playing time oh well he's not getting it anyways but uh yeah so Rogers can not get playing time. Yeah. Diaz, pretty interesting,

Starting point is 00:02:08 but he's only got a couple months left, and he is the backup catcher. So you're talking about giving up a really good prospect in a Royal for a guy who's probably going to start 15 games and then Brennan Rogers. I think there's a better allocation of resources here. Dollar, I don't think he has any value.

Starting point is 00:02:25 He hasn't pitched in like two years now. And Claise, I don't really care if they give up Claucet. I do think that he is a piece that has some value here. So I think the Rockies would probably want something like this. I don't know if the Mariners would want something like this. And, you know, it's interesting. It's two guys we really haven't talked about.

Starting point is 00:02:46 We talked about Diaz a little bit. Yeah. But two guys we haven't really talked about. And, you know, Rogers, I'm not excited about him at all, but he makes contact. He's a pretty good defender. Like, I can see why he would be kind of, an appealing piece to a lot of people.

Starting point is 00:03:02 But to me, if I'm giving up a Royo, I want more than a below average bat and a two-month rental backup catcher if I'm going to give up a royo. So from the Mariners side of things, I'm really out on this. But for these two players, this might be about what it costs because they're going to be teams who want Diaz to be their starting catcher down the stretch. And so you're going to have to bid against teams who are looking for a starting catcher for your backup catcher. So, yeah, all kidding aside here, pretty interesting,

Starting point is 00:03:36 but I just think Arroyo is just a little too much for me to give up for these two guys. Rogers also is like way better at Coorsfield than he is on the road. Now, Forsfield doesn't help you put the ball in play more often. No. So that doesn't really apply to him because he's not a power reliant hitter. So I don't really care too much about the Coors splits. but yeah I'm just like he's fine

Starting point is 00:04:02 and Elias Dia is like how much how much is that important to you how much is backup catcher important specifically to the Marys I mean how how much is that filling that with someone like Elias Diaz important for them especially when they have Garver who right now he's not producing

Starting point is 00:04:20 offensively with any sort of consistency so you need to get something out of them like look I understand it's like probably to try and trust Mitch Garver to stay healthy. But if he's a true backup catcher and he's going to DH sometimes, he's going to play like two or three times a week. I think I can trust him to stay relatively healthy. So I don't think I'm putting a lot of stock in a catcher only type.

Starting point is 00:04:44 Like if we're talking like Danny Jansen who could also DH and help you there, like fine, whatever. But to me, I don't think I don't think I'm going to place a high. I don't think backup catcher is going to place super high on my list of priorities at the deadline. so yeah Diaz like him I think he'd be a really good backup I just I don't see the Mariners getting involved there unless something happens to Cal in the next few weeks yeah I'm not super interested in the deal but I think

Starting point is 00:05:13 you know we're talking about a controllable position player and Brendan Rogers we're talking about a really solid catcher who a lot of teams are going to be looking at to start this summer I think the valuation is pretty much spot on. I think it's an interesting deal with a couple of players that we haven't really talked much about. I'd probably give you a 55 to 60 on this. I just wouldn't do the deal. I just don't really like it from the merits perspective, but I think they're like pretty on

Starting point is 00:05:44 point with it. Yeah, I just think because like the Mariners are going to say no to this, I can't give it more than a 50. But yeah, no, I think the valuation is at least in the ballpark. all right uh this trade comes from also tyler but a different tyler uh this is a deal with toronto davis schneider for michael o'royo and taylor do you guys really want to trade michael o'royo and somehow some reason think that taylor d'allard has trade value uh okay what do we think about essentially michael o'royo for davis schneider not a huge you know schneider fan i know a lot of people out there really think that he's like this really fun and awesome player and it's like he's really not hitting right now. He really hasn't hit for a while.

Starting point is 00:06:29 Sure. I mean, he could play multiple positions and I mean, you've seen him more than I have. So this is probably more of a trade for you to break down. But I mean, like I, again, I'd probably rather just have Dylan Moore in the role that I'm trying to acquire Schneider to fill. So, um, Royo, I think people are undervalue in Arroyo a little bit. So yeah, to me, no, I don't think Schneider like moves the needle enough for me to trade a royo for him the mayor has made that deal i'd be like okay like i get what they're going for i see i see what they're trying to do uh but i think that they should aim a little higher for you know a royo and i just don't trust schneider to hit uh enough to to you know make him a big part of my deadline uh now maybe you're not maybe he's the third

Starting point is 00:07:18 guy you acquire but if you're giving up a royo kind of feels like you know he's probably at least your second best bat that you're going to or he's your second best bat minimum that you're going to acquire so yeah um it's a no for me but i understand the thought process behind it certainly i think davis schneider's linsanity run for lack of a better term is over yeah i think he came up he caught fire and then you know he obviously well deserved made the the opening day roster this year and now he's just kind of a league average bat you can hit some bombs like you know he's Like he's got the aura right with the the stash and he's kind of a fun clubhouse guy and there's obviously that that kind of comes into play here. But overall like is he a good player? I think he's an average player. Yeah, I think he's useful average role player. He's kind of Jose Cabiero. Like they do it differently, but that's just kind of who they are. There's like, yeah, there's some vibe stuff here and there's some clubhouse stuff and there's some versatility and he does a couple things at the plate pretty well. Yeah. Do I want to like build my? line up around him?

Starting point is 00:08:24 No. I think you can get better for Michael O'Royle. I think so too. Yeah. So, like, I get the valuation on both of these deals, both for Rogers, even though Rogers only has a year and a half left, but it's still a controllable bat in this market.

Starting point is 00:08:40 And then Schneider has several years left of club control. And, again, is a slightly above league average hitter. It's a 104 WRC plus right now. I think that's roughly again in this market with that context, probably what the Blue Jays would ask for and probably what it would take for them to actually say yes on a Schneider deal because they don't have to trade. Right.

Starting point is 00:09:07 But if I'm the mayor, I'm out on that. I think he can do better for Michael O'Royle. It might be a player that has far less club control, but brings more impact than Schneider does. and maybe it gives you more of an everyday option than the Schneider does as well. So I'll go, I'll go 50 on it. I can see the vision. But again, like with the Rocky Steel, I just wouldn't do it.

Starting point is 00:09:36 Yeah, I just doesn't move the needle enough for me to be super excited about it. Yep. All right. We are going to go over more of your trades in just a moment. But first, reminder, this episode of the Locked on Airs podcast is Brought to you by booking.com and eBay Motors. With summer travel heating up, especially travel for baseball games, it's time to explore those U.S. cities you've always secretly wanted to learn more about.

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Starting point is 00:11:40 You can catch the M's and the Blue Jays tonight and over the course of the weekend on the Marr's hometown broadcast of Series XM via the SXM app final home series before the All-Star break. And hopefully the Mayors keep the good vibes going from yesterday's win. keep this thing going and start a little bit of a windstreet before they hit the road. All right, let's get back into your traits here on fan fiction Friday. Udonus Haslam has a deal with the Chicago Cubs in which the Mariners acquire Ian Hap and Hayden Wisniewski, who's a pitcher for Dom Kanzone, Michael Oroyo, Tai Pete, and Ben Williamson. So it's a pretty substantial package from the Marys, but you are trying to acquire a controllable pitch.

Starting point is 00:12:24 who go start and work out of the bullpen and Ian Hap, who's got a couple of years left of club control at $20 million piece. So what do you think? It feels like for this deal to go down, the Cubs would have to really, really care about getting payroll because I think they're leaving some talent on the table by trading Ian Hap for this package while also including the young arm to go with it. Like, first of all, I would say Dom Kahn's own. Cubs probably not a team that's going to be interested in him. They're trying to clear up space in their outfield so that they could play Pete Crowe Armstrong regularly. So also possibly morale.

Starting point is 00:13:06 So the MLB ready outfielder probably not that appealing to the Cubs, but maybe. I mean, can't say no outright, but they do have other first base options and D.H options as well. So Dom canzone, probably not a good piece in this deal. I mean, like in a vacuum, can zone for a Winski. is like interesting. But again, the Cubs don't really need an outfielder. So that part makes a little bit difficult. But even if we just pair up Canzon and the arm, throw them out of this.

Starting point is 00:13:39 Hap for Arroyo, Pete and Williamson feels a little bulky more so than upside. But Hap is making some serious money. And so we know that there are teams who are going to look at Ian Hap's contract and just say we're out. Like we just can't add that salary to our payroll. and the Mariners might be one of them. They've said that that's not going to be the case, but, you know. I'll believe it when I see it.

Starting point is 00:14:03 Yeah. Standard boilerplate, like, yeah. Yep. So yeah, this feels a little, for two and a half years of Ian have. It's a good player, not a great player. It feels more bulk. I think that the Cups are going to be like,

Starting point is 00:14:17 okay, well, what if instead of Arroyo and Pete, you give us, you know, farmello or whatever. whatever, right? I think that's what the Cubs would prefer. But again, it sounds like they want to clear some salary. Obviously, Hap is making $20 million a year. That's going to limit the amount of suitors he has. So I feel like this is really close, like in terms of like what both sides would be willing to do. I feel like the thing that's, you know, kind of holding this up is the inclusion of the arm, Wessniewski. He's got a lot of club control left, but he's not really taking that

Starting point is 00:14:54 step like the cubs were hoping is he a reliever is he a starter i don't know how the cubs are going to value that he's pretty average right but he's got club control so even an average club control pitcher at the deadline is going to carry some significant value i mean yeah look at what erin savalli what a year and a half of aaron savalli went for i mean obviously savalli has track record but like this year he's been really mediocre but he still got the the raise of very interesting prospect of 20-year-old middle infielder who's hitting right now in high a so kind of michael erroyoish so so pitching of any kind is going to cost you something decent right so yeah i don't i feel like the cubs might look at this and say it's a little light if i'm the

Starting point is 00:15:42 mariners because of the the salary and because half is just merely a you know good player not an all-star i'm kind of looking at this and being like do i want to add more than this because you know if I add his $20 million, that's going to prevent me from doing something else, possibly going after more upside. So kind of a really difficult needle to thread here just because I'm not really sure how the Mariner's payroll stacks up. I'm not really sure how desperate the Cubs are to move off of Papp. But in this deal, like if they just want to get rid of one of their outfielders, they're getting

Starting point is 00:16:18 two, well, I would say Pete has tremendous upside, but he's, a complete, you know, question mark. Overall, Williamson, probably not an everyday player, but looks like a pretty decent, you know, kind of utility infield type of guy who can play really good third, might even be able to play second or short.

Starting point is 00:16:38 There's some power that's developing. And also should be able to make his debut here in the next year. Probably. There's some power developing there. And then Arroyo, as we know, is just really, like just an advanced hitter for his age you. And he's answered a lot of questions.

Starting point is 00:16:53 He's growing into his power and it looks like he's going to be able to stay on the dirt. Probably not shortstop, but second or third both look totally possible. And if he's going to be an above average bat who can play second base, that's really valuable. So it's just, it's really tough to judge here because you're giving up like three prospects who are probably 45 to 50s in prospect circles right now for a major league player who's. like a 52, 53, give or take, who's making money like he's 55, 56. So, really difficult trade to

Starting point is 00:17:32 kind of wrap your head around, but it probably means it's in the ballpark. I would pay this price for Ian Hap if they were taking on like for a Polanco. If you want a Royal, if you want Pete, if you want Williamson, who again might be able to help you as soon as next year and can zone on top of that as well. Winsneski isn't really important to me.

Starting point is 00:17:59 Like I can live with or without Hayden Winsneski. Yeah, I wouldn't want to pay more. So like if Wusneski is what's causing me to add type E to this deal, just take them both out. You know what I mean? Like if you're telling me I could have half for a Royal Williamson, fine, done. Or Pete and Williamson, fine.

Starting point is 00:18:19 And I'll give it a 50. like it's really interesting. We could really probably talk all show about it. But yeah, I'll give it a 50. It's pretty good. Pretty solid. Yeah, I'll go 50. I'll go 55 actually on it.

Starting point is 00:18:31 All right. Well, we're going to go over a couple more of your trades here in just a moment. But first a reminder, this episode of the Lockdownernerner's podcast is brought to you by Tax Network USA and I bought up. Here on Locked on Mariner's, we pride ourselves on getting you the latest news for your team, whether it's the off season, the drafts, spring training, or the playoffs. It's year round. You know what else is year round?

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Starting point is 00:21:50 It's too bulky. Now, Estevez is making some money. And I believe he is a rental this year, I'm not mistaken. Rengifo has a year after this year. So you're getting him for two pennant races. But he's having a really good year just at the IL with some wrist soreness. And as we know, hand, wrist, finger injuries for hitters. A little shaky there.

Starting point is 00:22:14 But Regifo's a solid player. He makes a lot of contact. He's got some pop. He can play multi-stop. positions. I like Rangipo's fit in this lineup because he doesn't strike out really at all. And he's going to hit for a pretty good average. He's going to walk enough to get on base. And like I said, there's surprising power. He slugged 444 over his last, you know, over his last 650 plate appearances, basically a full year. Is he an everyday player, like, is he the guy that you want to be your everyday second baseman on a good team?

Starting point is 00:22:49 Maybe you might be able to get away with it. You probably want to do better. But for a couple months here, as you try and kind of just, you know, figure out what to do at that position. Yeah, Rengifo is the guy that I think makes a lot of sense.

Starting point is 00:22:59 He crushes left-handed pitching, which is a nice bonus. He's a switch hitter. So I like Rangipo. Like I said, plays third. You can play second. He has some time even at shortstop,

Starting point is 00:23:10 a little bit of time even in the outfield. Like, he's just a really fun player. And he's having a bit of a career year this year. He's only 27 years old. And he will be all. all year. But again, he caught called up early. He only has a year and a half left of club control. So that's still a valuable player, particularly in this market, where there's going to be so many buyers.

Starting point is 00:23:31 I don't think you're going to get Rengifo and Estevez, who's also going to have pretty significant interest because he's coming off of a great month and all that. I don't think you're going to get both of those guys combined for bulk, particularly from the Angels, which is another wrench that gets thrown into this mix. That makes it really difficult to negotiate a trade here. Yeah. Fos in the middle of a career year right now. Whether you think that's an outlier or not, it doesn't really matter here. That's how the angels are going to sell him.

Starting point is 00:24:01 Like he's a 127 WRC plus bat with club patrol. He's only 27 years old. Like that's going to cost you quite a bit here. That's going to cost you more than the in half. I think so. Well, plus he's cheaper, like literally money-wise. And he's probably going to be their all-star representative this year. Timmerch Tyler Anderson.

Starting point is 00:24:21 Yeah. So maybe Estevez too. So, yeah, it just, man, I like Marengief a lot. I just, I do think that like the Angels are a team. Like if you're looking to offload like a Ryan Bliss or a Dom-Kan zone, I actually think the Angels are a good team to do that with to give them a young major leaguer who they could play for the rest of the year. see what they have.

Starting point is 00:24:47 But I just, I think like if they're going to trade you and Gifo, they're going to be like, yeah, no problem. Give us Johnny Farmel. And it's like, no. No,

Starting point is 00:24:57 not doing that. Like, yeah, I, the least I could see you giving them would be like a Locklear or a Royo and then probably like a Bliss or a Canzone. And then probably something like Brandon Garcia or maybe Emerson Hancock or somebody like that.

Starting point is 00:25:17 So I do think, you could get away with some bulk here, but you're still going to have to give away a, like a headliner that's going to hurt a little bit. So I just think the valuation's off on this one. Yeah, so I think the valuation's off for Renhifo and loan, and then you throw on Estevez into the mix. Yeah, I just said, I would probably go 35 on this.

Starting point is 00:25:40 I'd give it a 40 because the valuation is really far off. But again, I do like the idea of Rehifo. I do think Estevez is, you know, going to be a name that we're not talking about a ton who would absolutely kind of you know he falls into that mix right a little bit better than stanick not as good as munoz that's kind of what we've been asking for so i like the idea i like the idea of packaging them together i think the mariners and the angels are actually really good like solid like trade fits when you look at their rosters and where they're at and they're built unfortunately ardi moreno is oh what's what's the nice

Starting point is 00:26:13 word to say you know i mean he's petty sure let's go with petty that's That's a word that won't get us demonetized. He's very petty man, very petty little man. So I don't think he's going to allow any, any traits to happen between these two ball clubs. But never know. You know, we'll see. But yeah, I mean, with Ward and Estevez and Rahifo and like, there's some other arms in that bullpen that I also think would make a lot of sense. Even maybe somebody like Detmer's and like, again, like I said, I think the angels, they're primed to go out and ask for a locklear or a bliss or a, you know,

Starting point is 00:26:48 Or maybe at Logan Evans, like, I think there's a really good fit here between these two teams. It's just that what's the word we decided to use from Reno? Petty. Petty, yeah. It's probably going to prevent anything serious from happening. So it's a bummer, but. This one comes from Quinn. It's another deal with the Cubs. This time it's for Cody Bellinger as well as Ethan Roberts for Jonathan Clase, Domkan, Zone, and Michael Morales.

Starting point is 00:27:14 and Quinn says this is assuming the Cubs treat Bellinger as a rental. And yeah, that's still a thing that I'm trying to kind of figure out here with Cody Bellinger and how the Cubs are going to view him because like, yeah, on one hand, in theory, yeah, you could sell him as, well, he has a couple of years left for all. That should be valuable to you. But then the other team is probably looking at Cody Bellinger and what he's done this year, which is like last time I checked it was a 109 WRC plus. You combine that with how dreadful he was in his last two years with the Dodgers.

Starting point is 00:27:43 you kind of look at last year and think well was last year just the outlier I don't want to pay $27.5 million for a slightly above average bet. Well and it's not club control it's Bellinger control like so yeah it's like honestly

Starting point is 00:27:59 think about this like let's say you make a trade for Bellinger and he's roughly what he has been this year for the rest of the year for you do you want him to opt into that $27 million one year deal for a 109 WRC plus guy? Probably not.

Starting point is 00:28:17 Not when you're already know you're going to have some kind of budget restraint. So like it's tough, man. And like I said, I think Bellinger, we've said this all week. I think Bellinger's swing and like his, like what he does really well fits T-Mobile Park beautifully. Would I pay $27 million a year for it?

Starting point is 00:28:38 No. I think they have to take Metchaniger. Yeah. because yeah like the more that I've thought about it because he's going to take that player option I guess the hope would be if he did decline is like look am I going to get 27 million a year no but can I go get 6 and 100 like maybe and maybe he wants to do that instead of trying to rebound in Seattle and then you know being like another year older I got 27 million this year well now I have to make up you know X amount from what I didn't get on the free agent market next year can I still

Starting point is 00:29:11 get six and 120 if I play a year in Seattle. I don't know how they're going to want to work that. So really interesting. Bellinger is just, there's, man, I'm fascinated to see what, what happens to Cody Bellinger, if anything. Yeah. So on this deal specifically, what do you, what do you think? Because we're talking about Class A, Canzone Morales for Bellinger and Ethan Roberts, who's a credible mid-leverged reliever at best. He only has like nine career innings at the big league level. It's not like a significant package going to Chicago. And again, this is from Quinn's point of view,

Starting point is 00:29:54 kind of contingent upon the Cubs treating Bellinger and his value as if he was. I think the problem with this package in particular is what we talked about with the package is that the Cubs don't want outfield help, right? They have too many outfielders. They want to clear a space for Pete Crow Armstrong. So by giving them Canzone and Claese, both of whom are on the 40 man already, they're not really getting a ton. Morales is interesting. He's taken a step forward this year, and he is certainly going to rise up prospect ranks. And I think he's kind of back on track on being like a legitimate prospect instead of just org depth, which is kind of what it looked like he was headed towards.

Starting point is 00:30:43 So I think Morales would be an interesting piece for the Cubs. Canzone and Closset, I don't think they do anything for Chicago. So I still think, you know, if you get Bellinger for the player he is right now, I think you're looking at something like Morales and Bliss, Morales and Arroyo, like Morales and, you know, somebody in that 9 to 16 range in prospect ranks, I think, again, if we're assuming that the Cubs are going to treat him like an expensive rental money-wise, which he is, then I think that, yeah, Morales and somebody like Ryan Bliss would make a good amount of sense for both sides.

Starting point is 00:31:27 And at the high end, I think it's like Morales and Locklear, but if you're in the Mariners, it's like, do we want to trade Locklear for two months of course? Cody Bellinger? You know, it's so hard to pin down Cody Bellinger's trade value. I feel like this is a little too much like, hey, here's some, some garbage. And I mean, I know Canzone's not garbage, but you know what I'm saying. Like, here's players we're not going to use, like, get rid of them. And we're just going to take Cody Bellinger essentially for free.

Starting point is 00:31:55 And it's like, I don't think you're going to get that. But I do think for Alice is a good like second or third piece in a Bellinger deal. So, yeah, it's so hard to nail. down the Bellinger value that, you know, it's, it's tough to get too critical of anybody's idea on this as long as it's not like ridiculous. And I don't think this is ridiculous. I just think that the Cubs aren't the team that you're going to try and pawn off a couple of 40 man outfielders on.

Starting point is 00:32:21 I just, I don't have a great evaluation on this because there's so many variables with Bellinger. I'll give it a 50. I'd probably still give it a 45. I think the valuation, just the two outfielders is just. the Cubs aren't going to be interested in that Yeah I mean They're already finding ways to play Pete Crow Armstrong

Starting point is 00:32:43 Right but it's easier Yeah yeah it is easier But you eliminate Bellinger from the equation Maybe they are able to also trade in half But again variables right We're talking about hypotheticals on on hypotheticals Like there is a way where this works Yes I don't know

Starting point is 00:33:04 I'll just give it a 50 because I don't feel great about it one way or the other. Well, that is going to do it for our show. Thank you so much, everyone, for all of your trades. Before we get out of here, a reminder that Lockdown has launched the first ever national sports 24-7 streaming channel on YouTube, and now it's also available on Amazon Fire TV and the free Fire TV channels app. Locked On Sports Today is here for you 24-7 covering the top sports stories of the day with the

Starting point is 00:33:27 local experts of Lockdown, plus our national shows covering every league. Find Lockdown Sports Today now available on the free Fire TV channels app. Thank you so much for joining us here on the Lockdown Marriss podcast for Colby Patnaud. I'm Ty Dan Gazzalas. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L0 underscore Marrners. You can follow me at Ty Dan Gazzalus and Colby at CPAT 1-1. You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day and we'll see you next time.

Starting point is 00:33:52 Peace.

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