Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Fan Fiction Friday: Luis Robert Jr., Ryan Helsley, Pete Alonso

Episode Date: June 14, 2024

It's Fan Fiction Friday! Ty and Colby react to Mariners trade ideas from listeners, including deals for Luis Robert Jr., Ryan Helsley, Luis Severino, and more.We are proud to support the Washington State Coalition Against Domestic Violence for The Refuse To Abuse® Game Day with the Mariners. Come on out on June 16 for an unforgettable experience at the ballpark, working for change. #RefuseToAbuse  Purchase tickets: https://www.mlb.com/mariners/tickets/specials/refuse-to-abuse  For more information/to donate: https://givebutter.com/refuse24Ask us questions!Follow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @TyDaneGonzalez | @CPat11Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!PolicygeniusCheck life insurance off your to do list in no time with Policygenius. Head to policygenius.com/lockedonmlb to get your free life insurance quotes and see how much you could save. PrizePicksGo to https://prizepicks.onelink.me/LME0/LOCKEDONMLB and use code lockedonmlb for a first deposit match up to $100! SupplyHouseSupplyHouse.com is the reliable way to get parts fast. Shop for your next plumbing, h-vac, or electrical job and get fast shipping from coast to coast. eBay MotorsFrom brakes to exhaust kits and beyond, eBay Motors has over 122 million parts to keep your ride-or-die alive. With all the parts you need at the prices you want, it’s easy to bring home that big win. Keep your ride-or-die alive at EbayMotors.com. Eligible items only. Exclusions apply. eBay Guaranteed Fit only available to US customers.GametimeDownload the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONMLB for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. FanDuelFanDuel, America’s Number One Sportsbook. Right now, NEW customers get ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY DOLLARS in BONUS BETS with any winning GUARANTEED That’s A HUNDRED AND FIFTY BUCKS – with any winning FIVE DOLLAR BET! Visit FanDuel.com/LOCKEDON to get started. FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

It's fan fiction Friday. Let's take a look at your mock trades here on the Locked on Marriss podcast. Colby, hit it. You are Locked on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. Ahoy, Sailors. It is Friday, June 14th, 2024.

This is Tading Azales and Colby Pat note for the Locked on Marins podcast, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. It is Fan Fiction Friday, the show where you submit your Mariners. trade proposals and Colby and I react to them. Before we get into this week's batch, shout out to our title sponsor today, GameTime. Download the GameTime app, create an account, and use the promo code Locked-on MLB. That's LOC, KED, ON, MLB for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. And if you want to hear from me and Colby even more and help support the show, check out our Patreon. The link is in the description and you can sign up for a free seven-day trial.

All right. Let's get into your trades. We're going to start here with Matthew, who has a deal with the Oakland Athletics, the mayor, send Harry Ford, Michael O'Royle, Michael Morales, and Caleb Calley to the A's for Brent Rucker and Austin Adams. I think this is about what it would cost, you know, one blue chip prospect, one like really good prospect. Then a couple lottery tickets to kind of account for the, you know, the Austin Adams part of the deal. So, yeah, I mean, like Rooker, I think has three years of club control after this year. he's not even arbitration eligible until this winter. So yeah, you're paying a little bit for the club control. You're paying obviously for what's been a career year for him so far.

But this isn't a guy who's done it once. He was pretty darn good last year. We know he's a guy who actually likes to hit at Team Mobile Park. That's, you know, kind of rare for a guy to publicly say that he likes to hit at your ballpark. So, you know, I do think he's very familiar with the division and the ballpark and all that stuff too. So I do think this is about what it would cost. With the Mariners, you know, kind of reject this because Brookers are a DH only.

Maybe they might, they might be how they see him. But again, they're running with Mitch Hanigur right now in right field. So it's not like you can get much worse defensively than what you're running out there on a pretty consistent basis. And again, you can also play first. You can play some DH. You can play left. You can play some right. So there are ways to get him in the lineup and keep everybody else in the lineup an appropriate amount.

we've had this discussion a lot. You can move a lot of guys around and give them one day off a week and still give everybody plenty of at bat. So Rooker definitely falls into that. Adams obviously would help your bullpen. So yeah, I think this is about what it costs. I don't know if the Mariners would do this deal, but I think they should consider something like this. Because Rooker's a pretty darn good player, pretty darn good hitter at least. And you really need some bullpen help right now.

Yeah, I think the MERS would prefer to give up a package like this for someone that adds, you know, some value in other areas of the game outside of their, outside of their bat. But, I mean, there aren't many hitters this year that are hitting better than the rucker. And you need offense ultimately. You need production at the plate. 55?

Yeah, that sounds about right. Next trade here from Stephen. It's Luis Severino and Harrison Bader from the New York Mets for Aidan Smith, Jonathan Classe, and Reed Van Scoder. The Mets also eat the remaining cash on Severino. invader. It's an interesting idea. It's outside the box, certainly, which is, is nice. It's nice to see some different names get thrown into these fan fiction Fridays. We tend to talk about the same player over and over again. But there are some concerns here. Severino, for example, only signed to a one year deal. So you're only going to get him for a couple of months. He's having a really good year, though. He is, but you're only going to get him for a couple months. And right now he's kind of a luxury, because I'm not sure if he's better than Brian Wu, but he is. certainly more dependable than Brian Wu. And he's better than Emerson Hancock and Jonathan Dehs.

Right. Right. But again, like, do you want to pay Aidan Smith who's a really good prospect for that guy when he may or may not be required to make 10 starts? And by the way, how many starts is he going to make for you in the playoffs? He might make, like he might be better than Bryce Miller by the end of the year. But I don't know. I don't know if that's worth Aidan Smith.

And then the problem with Bader is that he's always been a glove first guy. Like, he's had a few seasons. It's based running its defense over bat. Right. He's had a few seasons where he's had a pretty good year with the bad. And I know he's having a pretty good year with the bad this year. But again, that's also a rental. So it's two rentals, one of whom doesn't really help you offensively or there's a huge threat that he doesn't help you offensively. And the other one as of right now is kind of a luxury item for you when you have other more important needs that you need to fill.

So I think that it's. I think that the Mets would probably like something like this. They get a couple of rentals. They package them together and they trade them off for a really high upside prospect that they can develop. So I think from a Mets standpoint, this is probably what they're looking for. They could package these guys together. They can get an Aden Smith. They can get a Tipeet or, you know, prospect similar to that from other teams.

And there are certainly going to be teams who want Severino because he's probably going to be one of the best pitchers available at the deadline this year. But the Mariners aren't one of those teams right now that, needs, you know, a starting pitcher. They don't need to add a starting pitcher. We'll see this could change in a week, two weeks, three weeks. If Brian Wu continues this kind of random, not feeling great, we have to skip a start type of thing. I think considering how many times this is cropped up from the arm fatigue essentially, I think you have to. I think you have to at this point now, like you have to assume that you're going to have to add a starter of some kind. And maybe it's a guy that can also go into the bullpen. Right. But are you going to add one that is

going to cost you Aden Smith is only going to be around for two. I'm out on that. I'm out on that. So, you know, I'll give you some bonus points here for the creativity for talking about two guys that we typically don't get asked about. I'll go like 45 to a 50

on this. Yeah, I think so. That sounds about right, yeah. Yeah, yeah. All right, we're going to go over some more of your trades in just a moment, but first a reminder of this episode of the Lockdown Marries podcast is brought to you by

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yeah all right Quinn has a trade here with the Reds Jake Freley old take Frey former mariner for Alberto Rodriguez

Walter Ford and Luis Suisse spell yeah the problem with this trade is that this is all just junk for like a quality major leaguer so the Reds aren't going to do it there's no reason for the Reds to take that slewis spells a fine prospect

but Ford has not progressed at all. He's actually regressed from the time the Mariners drafted him. So you're just not going to get Jake Fraley, even if he is just like a really good fourth outfielder, just pretty much what he is. You don't want him hit against lefties, although he's been fine this year

against lefties. In general, you don't want him to hit against lefties. You don't want him playing center field, although he can handle it if you have to. So, yeah, you know, there's not a ton of power, but there's some decent pop. He's steal some bags, but he's not a fantastic base runner. You guys

remember the series against Cincinnati earlier this year. Yish. So, yeah, like, Freely is not like this otherworldly player that is going to cost you a top, you know, 10 prospect type of guy, but you're not going to get him for, you know, no disrespect to these guys,

but you're not going to get them for your leftovers. You're not going to get them for, you know, your desk clutter. Like, you're going to have to give up something of significance for him. I think this is a situation where it's like, here's five years of Domkan zone or six how many years this he has he had left six six here's six years of Domkenzone for two years of Jake Frealey right two and a half years yeah two and a half right and Freely's you know making some money he's into arbitration now so it might only be a year and a half because there's certainly a chance that you get into the final year of his arbitration and he's set to make eight nine million bucks and you're like is that do we want to pay a fourth outfield or nine million dollars yeah no it's just it's just right now while the reds the reds the and, you know, basically the rest of the National League are straddling the 500 fence at the moment.

Like, you're going to have to give them something that's at least within proximity of the major leagues, within proximity of doing something for them in 2024. Right. And the Reds are a team that is always, you know, very cautious about their payroll. So it says, hey, this is the guy you might DFA their next winner or non-tender next winter or maybe the winner after. Here's the guy that isn't even arbitration eligible for another three years. and you get the immediate upgrade now and they get to hope and dream on Canzone

and they can put Canzone right into their lineup and kind of, you know, possibly replace some of the production from Freyley because Canzone's bat certainly has a higher ceiling than Jake Frealy. But Freely's just the more well-rounded player with a much higher floor. And you could use some high floor in this lineup right now.

Right. It's a relatively low K rate. He takes his walk. So his walk rate is down this year, but overall he takes his walks. It's, it's, you're trading essentially, like, if it's just like, let's say it's a one-for-one where you're trading Canzone for Fraley, you're trading the power-up side of Canzone for more on base, higher average.

At least for the next couple years. Yeah. So, yeah, this one, I'd give like a 30. It's just, it's not enough. Yeah, I'll go 30, 35. Laser has a trade here. It's a big one. Luis Robert and Michael Copac for Harry Ford, Johnny Farmello, Tai Pete,

Jonathan Clase is probably what it's going to take or fairly close to it. Three top 10 guys from the Mariners to try and convince the White Sox to let go of Robert. And you also get Copac in the deal. But would you do this? That's kind of the ultimate question. Robert is such a huge risk. So it looks pretty good on the series. Sure. He also had to miss a game because at 26 years old, his bones are so brittle, he can't play four games in a row.

So, you know, there are some concerns here. And he also strikes out a ton. He doesn't walk a ton. And one of his best assets, centerfield defense, doesn't really apply to you. Now, I mean, it's not like you're not in, you know, instead of centerfield defense, you're not getting elite corner outfield defense. You're certainly getting that. And, you know, right field is, or well, I guess left field is technically a little bit bigger than right field at T-Mobile. But, you know, yeah. Yeah, so it's not like you don't get any defense from Robert. You just don't get the best defense you can get from him because he's not the most valuable, I should say. So there's a lot of concerns here with Robert. I think at the end of the day, if they did a deal like this, I would understand it. I think it's a fairly appropriate risk to take because this is, again, it's Ford. It's not Emerson. I would prefer to give up Las Montez to Farmello, but I can see why the White Sox wouldn't want that.

I'd probably prefer to give up Cole Young to Johnny Farmelow right now. But I can see why the Mariners might not like to do that because they want a couple of these guys who are close to the big leagues to stay in the org. Because unfortunately, they have to care about, you know, overperforming major leaguers who are underpaid. They have to care about those type of players, unfortunately. So, yeah, I think this probably gets a conversation going. Again, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. So who knows if they even like Air Ford or not. But yeah, I think this puts you in the ballpark of what it's going to take to get the White Sox interest.

But there are a lot of speculation about what Robert is going to cost. Some people say like, oh, he's going to cost more than Juan Soto. No, he's not. No, he's not. But then I've seen some people treat it like, oh, yeah, you just have to give one, like, good prospect. And then like some filler to, and it's like, no, probably not. Probably not. So I think this splits the difference pretty well.

So, yeah, I think it just depends on how serious the White Sox are about moving on from them. Because, yeah, they might ask for something more than Soto. And at that point, they're probably not trading Luis Robert this summer. Unless like the Orioles get really desperate, which maybe they will. Maybe. But, you know, the problem with the problem with, you know, keeping Robert right now is if you keep them for the rest of the summer, you say, oh, we could trade him this winter. What if he gets hurt again? His value just continues to go down.

So they have to play this one smart. But it's very risky for the Mariners or anybody to kind of, you know, I don't want to say you're not mortgaging the farm. There's still plenty left on the farm, even if you make this trade. But it's a hefty price to pay for a guy who is more likely than not, not going to play 100 games. Like he's probably going to miss 70 games minimum every year. Like that just kind of I have to look at him because he's done it every year of his career except for once.

So it's, it's a little tough to say right now, but I would say this is probably 50. Yeah. Yeah. By the way, so as I'm sure most of you have seen, the Astros released Jose Arbriu today. Colby, did you see who they called up to take a spot? No, but since you're asking, I'm going to assume it's like a mariner? It's a former mariner, yep. How recently?

As of last year, he made the opening day roster. Cooper Hummel. It is Cooper Hummel. Cooper Hummel is now on the Astros 26-man roster, which... It was either Cooper Hamel or it was Tommy Lestella, and I think we would have talked about Tomulistella if he was still playing baseball. Yeah. But I feel like that also is a great indication of how things are going right now for the Houston Astros at the moment.

They're adamant. They're going to buy this. summer. See about that. All right. I don't know. We'll find out, I guess. Good luck to you.

So we are going to go over more of your trades in just a moment, but first reminder, this episode of the Lockdown Errors podcast is brought to you once again by Game Time. Game Time is now an authorized ticket marketplace of Major League Baseball, which makes getting tickets even faster and easier. Prices

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with Sirius XM via the SXM app. All you have to do to find that is search the word mergers. Let's get into your final traits here on fan fiction Friday. Daisy and the dingo has a deal. with the Mets, or second deal with the Mets of the day. This time it's Pete Alonzo and Starling Marte to the Mariners for Thai France,

Mitch Garver, Dom Canzon, and Michael Arroyo. So a lot of contract swapping here, a lot of money essentially changing hands here between these two teams. And for the Mets' troubles, they get Canzon and they get

Arroyo. What do you think? Uh, I don't, don't love it. This feels like a trade that is specifically created just to clear payroll space as opposed to actually getting the best you can for your trade package, which I understand at some point they're going to have to do something like that. Like obviously payroll unfortunately has to be in the conversations.

Are they actually clearing payroll? How much is Marte owed? Marte, I think, is making about as much as Garver. So that would be a wash. No, he's making more. He's making significantly more. He's making 19 and a half of this year, which is obviously going to be pro rated by the deadline,

and then 19 and a half next year. And that's guaranteed. That's not an option. That is just a fully guaranteed year. Right. And he's been terrible. So I wouldn't say that. He's running a 125 WRC plus right now.

Oh, nice. Nice. But so here's the deal with Alonzo too, right? Is that he's running, what is Alonzo's WRC plus right now? Because I know it's not actually. I know he's having a good year, but I know it's not like I think at the very least he's like another Cal Raleigh essentially. I mean yeah sure he's probably a little bit better than that more consistent at least 123 WRC plus but he's slashing 233 315 459. So a lot of slug not a high average you know below league average batting average and below league average on base. Right. So if he's not slugging you know 500 is he that much better than Thai France? I don't know. because France might get on base a little bit more.

And he's making 20 and a half this year. Right. Again, it's going to be pro rated by the time that he's acquired. But even if it's less than half, even if you only owe him $8 million, right? Yeah. You still owe then Marte,

it'll be roughly $8 million as well. So you're still going to at $16 million. France is still going to be owed about three by that point. And Garber is going to be owed about five. So you're still adding $11 million in payroll. You're giving up You're adding seven for next year Over Carver

Yeah You're maybe not getting an upgrade At first base As weird as that is to say Especially with the news That Thai France might be back You know in a week Like

So that's you know Completely changes the conversation as well Plus you're also You know You're also sacrificing Your first base Like your first base option next year because France has the next year club control.

Alonzo was a free agent after this year. Now they might decide just to non-tender tie France anyways and just go with Locklear at the start of next year. That's certainly a possibility. But I look at this. You're giving up three major league bats for two major league bats. You're also giving up a pretty good prospect. You're adding a lot of payroll.

You're eating a lot of payroll from the Mets, which doesn't feel necessary. And yet you still have Mitch Hanigar on your roster. you still have holes on your roster. They have to go fix. So I look at this. This is just too messy. The money doesn't work. If you replace Garver with Hanager, this would make more sense.

Yeah. And the prospect compensation would also make more sense if they're taking on Hanigur rather than Garber in my mind. Right, because Marte and Hanigur are making roughly the same amount of money next year. They're, you know, same position-ish. they've same poor defensive outfield output. And so yeah, to me like, I don't get it from Seattle standpoint. Like I don't understand the value in it for them unless France comes back and

you know, he tanks for a couple weeks and all that. Like I don't know that Pete Alonzo is actually a significant upgrade to tie France overall, especially with what we've seen from France over the last month. So this is one of those ones where it's like I wouldn't make this deal now, but would I make it on July? 29th. I mean, maybe we need to see how Thai looks coming back from the injury. Can he stay hot? Right. And I just, I don't think the money is going to make this possible. So, I think, you know, it's pretty creative. There's definitely some salary swapping going on. And I think the Mariners very

well could try and find some salary swaps in their deals this summer. Absolutely. But this one, it just doesn't quite line up well enough. Yeah. So I think there are some interesting pieces here. I think there's some interesting conversation here, but it's just a little bit off. So I'm going to give it like a 40. Yeah. I'll go 40 on this as well. Yeah. It's interesting. All right.

Last trade of the day comes from Doug. Ryan Helsley for Ty Pete, Emerson Hancock, Teddy McRaw. I don't think that's going to get it done. Halsley is really, really good. I think he's got a year and a half left. I'm pretty sure it's a year and a half. I'll look up. But yeah, he's really good.

And he's exactly the type of arm the Mariners need. So if I can get them with Tai Pete as a headliner, I absolutely would do that in a hard. Hank to because we know that the Cardinals are desperate for young starting pitch. Okay. We know that Hancock or we know that the Cardinals are kind of desperate for young, controllable starting pitching. The problem is that Hancock's like a number five starter.

I don't know if that's going to be enough, especially because other teams are obviously going to be bidding on Helsley as well. So to me, Tai Pete, Aden Smith, like Michael Royo, one of those guys, can be the headliner of a Hellsley deal. I'm pretty much all in. I don't know if Hancock's going to, I don't trust Hancock to carry it up value,

I should say, in the Cardinal's eyes for Ty Fee to be a good enough headliner in this deal. And Teddy McGraw is such a wild card because we don't know when he's going to pitch again. I like Teddy McGraw, but he's thrown zero professional pitches because he's been hurt.

And this is, it's his second injury, right? His second elbow injury. Yeah. I get McGraw and Cole Phillips mixed up sometimes. So, uh, yeah,

It's interesting. I like Hellsley. I think he's the type of arm. The mayor should go get. They should go get that high leverage bullpen arm. And if I can do it with, like I said, it being Aidan Smith or Tai Pete or Michael Arroyo plus, you know,

probably going to cost a little bit more in the secondary than Hancock. But if I can do that, I can headline one of those young guys and then maybe two of them even. Like you could talk me into Hellsley for, you know, Pete and Arroyo. well like you'd absolutely talk me to that but the cardinals probably want somebody who's closer to major league ready because that's just kind of their MO so cardinals not a great fit with Seattle despite how much team how much you know the media has tried to jam those two teams together and trade talks they really don't fit all that well but i do like howlsley um i think the deal is i think the deal you propose is a little bit optimistic on the mariner's side of things but not completely like not completely without some merit and some thought process. Yeah, like it probably gets the conversation going.

I think they engage with it. I don't think it's like, oh, man, if you just do this, I think they're like, okay, well, we see what you're going for here. Let's, let's talk about. Marmello is probably, and they're like, oh, how about instead we talk about Pete and Arroyo and Carlos Vargas or whatever. Like, so. Yeah, yeah.

We also don't know if they're going to be in the playoff race right now because once again, once again, the National League is so mediocre that there are like two sellers, two true sellers. Marlins, Rockies, Mets are like the only three teams that are just like out. There's no, yeah, everybody else is in the race. Like they are within like two games. Yeah. So these National League trades are tough to grade until we get to about the All Star break where we can start to be like, okay, well, this team, this team lost seven in a row, blah, blah, they're out of it now if that even happens. Because the National League is having a giant mid-off.

Dude, it's so bad. Yeah, so the Phillies are 46 and 22. The Dodgers are 42 and 28. The Braves are 36 and 30. The Brewers are 40 and 28. And the Padres are 37 and 35. Those are the only teams that are over 500. Then like the Rockies are 24 and 44.

The Marlins are 23 and 45. The Mets are 30 and 37. Then every other team is like 33 and 34. 33 and 35, 33 and 36, 32 and 36, 34 and 35. They're all within like two games of one another. Yeah, it's nuts. Yeah, it's like literally like seven or eight teams are all just like bundled up next to one another. It's crazy.

Did we give a grade on the Hellsley deal? Did I have a hellsley deal? 40. I'll go 40. as well yeah that's going to do it for our show but before we get out of here a reminder that locked on has launched the first ever national sports 24-7 streaming channel on youtube and now it's also available on amazon fire tv and the free fire tv channels app locked on sports today is here for you 24-7 covering the top sports stories of the day with the local experts of locked on plus our national

shows covering every league find locked on sports today now available on the free fire tv channels app thank you so much for joining us here on the locked on marr's podcast for colby pat note, I'm Tide and Gazzalas. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter. At L.O. underscore Mariners. You can follow me at Tideand Gizalas and Colby at C-Pat 11. That's C-P-A-T-1-1. You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day, and we'll see you next time. Peace.