Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Fan Fiction Friday: Mariners Trading Luxuries For Luxuries?

Episode Date: January 20, 2023

On this week's installment of Fan Fiction Friday, Colby and Ty discuss why trading Tom Murphy doesn't currently make sense for the Seattle Mariners but offers grades on trade offers. Names discussed i...nclude Tyler Stephenson, Sixto Sanchez, Yandy Diaz, Christian Walker, and many more! Stick around until the end of the show for our big announcement!Be sure to follow or subscribe to Locked On Mariners wherever you prefer your podcasts! For questions and other inquiries, email: lockedonmariners@gmail.comFollow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @danegnzlz | @CPat11For more of Ty and Colby, check out their Patreon: patreon.com/controlthezone/Join our Slack!Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKEDON15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 You have trades. We have grades. It's fan fiction Friday here on the Locked on Mariners podcast. Colby, hit it. You are Locked on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day. How's it going, everyone?
Starting point is 00:00:17 It is Friday, January 20th, 2020. This is Tiding Gonzalez and Colby Paddiv for the Lockdown Mariners podcast. Thank you so much for making us your first listen. Subscribe, like, and turn on alerts if you're watching on YouTube, or subscribe and leave a five-star review on your preferred podcast. platform if you like what you hear and if you want to hear from us even more please consider sending up for our patreon the link as well as our social accounts is in the description below we'll be getting into your mariners trade proposals here on fan fiction friday and please be sure to stick around until
Starting point is 00:00:43 the end of the show for a very big announcement chills that's all i got to say but before we get into all of that a reminder we're giving away a fifty dollar mariner's gift card to one lucky listener and if you win but you're outside the state of washington you'll instead receive a fifty dollar MLB shop or fanatics gift card. All you have to do to enter is subscribe to our YouTube channel. If you already have, you're already in. You're good to go. The deadline to enter is next Tuesday, January 24th at 1159 p.m. Pacific.
Starting point is 00:01:10 We will then select the winner from our YouTube subscriber list and announce it on next Wednesday's show, which is January 25th. All right, Colby, let's get into these trades, submit it via Twitter from our listeners. This one comes from Daniel. It's a Mariners Marlins trade in which the Mariners get Sixtho Sanchez. former top pitching prospect and utility endfielder John Bertie for Taylor Trammell and Tom Murphy. Colby, it's a Tom Murphy trade. I know you love these. Who's the backup catcher, Daniel?
Starting point is 00:01:44 Don't tell me it's Cooper Hummel. That dude cannot catch. He is worse than Luis Turin's. Okay. He's not the backup. So who is it? Jacob Nottingham, Brian O'Keefe. And by the way, the backup catcher has to play at least 60, 70 games a year.
Starting point is 00:01:59 This isn't one of those things like, well, how old you? is the backup. Pretty dang valuable when he's playing 40% of your games minimum. All right. So, who's the backup catcher? Because you know what? He's not on the roster right now. And even if you go tell me, well, I'll just go sign Luis Trenz. Okay, do you trust Luis Trenz to be your backup catcher?
Starting point is 00:02:18 I don't, and I'm the biggest Luis Torens fan in Mariners fandom. So, like, no, just no. That being said, on the surface, like, I understand the thinking behind the trade. Tremel for Six-O is you know, kind of two struggling former top prospects. Sixtho's struggles have been more injury related. Tremels has been production-wise. But I understand the idea there.
Starting point is 00:02:41 The Marlins have a ton of starting pitching. So Sixtho is probably on his way out of there anyways. And they have, they have, you know, publicly stated their desire to add an outfielder. Tramel has pretty high upside. So I definitely get the idea behind it. And Bertie is kind of a, you know, utility infielder. Murphy is a backup catcher. So I totally get like what your your thought process was.
Starting point is 00:03:03 I understand that minus the catcher thing. And this isn't one of those things like you don't need a backup first baseman. You don't, right? This is like a fourth outfielder. Like you need a fourth outfielder. You need a backup catcher. And you just don't have one if it's not Tom Murphy. And oh, this is one of those little things that like we probably should be paying more attention to in general because there's a chance that Murphy's shoulders and 100% and he's just not the same player he was.
Starting point is 00:03:29 And if that happens, you're in trouble. Now, to be fair, most teams don't have a good backup catcher. Most teams don't have a good everyday catcher. The marries are fortunate to have what they have in Calerale. But that's still there. So, you know, I would just say get Louis Terence done already. But either way, I understand what the trade thought. I understand what the process was.
Starting point is 00:03:53 I think the valuation is probably a little off, but not too bad, considering what we see here a lot. I just don't think that it's viable at all because you don't have a replacement for Murphy. And you don't need Sixtho Sanchez and you don't need Bertie. You have, you know, you have Price Miller's probably better than Sixtho Sanchez right now. And Dylan Moore is John Bertie, more or less. So did the Mariners really get better? I don't think so. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:04:21 I think these are nice luxuries, but you also are giving up a really unique luxury and having two. starting caliber catchers at least you know if if Murphy is healthy right assuming health yeah if Murphy is healthy then you you have that and that's a big question mark but if the Mariners do feel that he is healthy enough
Starting point is 00:04:40 to catch and do all those things then they I don't think they would even entertain this idea because you're essentially trading luxuries for luxuries here maybe not Tremel I wouldn't consider Tremel necessarily a luxury
Starting point is 00:04:56 but you don't don't, this is just to say that you don't really need John Birdie or Sixtho Sanchez. You don't need them. I just don't think that they would see really the value in doing this. I'll give this, though, I'll give this 52. I think it's, I always view 50 as kind of the average, right? And I think this is just slightly above average for being creative.
Starting point is 00:05:21 I don't, I wouldn't do this, though. But it's, it's interesting. And I think the value is a pretty spot on. 25. No. I'll give it like a 45. I think we're undervaluing the backup catcher. Yeah, agreed.
Starting point is 00:05:35 All right. Next trade comes from Stan. Stan has a deal with the Reds. Tyler Stevenson and Spencer Steer for Harry Ford, Michael Morales, and Travis Coon. This one's interesting. Colby, what do you think? I saw a couple of Tyler Stevenson trades. No, never going to happen.
Starting point is 00:05:58 Why would you trade? Stevenson's a good player. Don't get me wrong. He's a very good player. he makes no sense for the Mariners. You're going to bench Cal Raleigh? No. You're going to bench Tyler Stevenson?
Starting point is 00:06:08 No. So what are you going to do with them? I assume this is like a DH plan, right? This has to be, right? Yes, but that's, that doesn't even work either because we know the mariner's are hesitant to DH catchers. So you're just going to have, you know, each guy play 81 games. So you're losing value on Stevenson and Raleigh. That's the plan.
Starting point is 00:06:28 You don't need a catcher. You don't need a starting catcher, right? And Stevenson is young enough and he's produced enough that he's going to cost a lot. And even the trade package that... He's like the only good Major League of the Reds have right now. And even the trade package, even if that made sense,
Starting point is 00:06:41 like if Stevenson made sense for the Mariners roster, the trade package is too light. I think Stevenson's got four years of club control left. Yeah. And you're giving the Reds Harry Ford and nothing. It's just, it's not going to work. It doesn't fit with what the Mariners need. It doesn't address the vans.
Starting point is 00:07:00 value question of what the Reds are giving up. The trade just doesn't work. And Stevenson just is not a fit so long as you have Cal Raleigh. You can't have like, it's kind of like with Sean Murphy, right? Like, Sean Murphy's available. Should the Marlins go get them? Why? Like, how does that make the Mariners a better team?
Starting point is 00:07:22 Yeah. John Murphy's a really good player, but it doesn't really fit. Right. Cal Raleigh is at least as good as Tyler Stevenson. They do it differently. Stevenson's more of a contact guy. He gets on base. He's good defensive catcher.
Starting point is 00:07:35 Raleigh is a power guy who's a switch hitter who works really well with his pitching staff. So, yeah, like, I think they're at the very least. They're in the same range. And honestly, Raleigh's had a better major league career, you know, because he stayed healthy basically this year. So I just don't think the valuation is correct. I don't think the fit is correct. So I just, I don't see this as something they even entertain. Yeah, for all the reasons that you said, I am giving this,
Starting point is 00:08:07 balance in between a 30 and a 35, honestly. Same. Yeah, I just, it doesn't make sense from a Reds standpoint. It doesn't make sense from a Mariners standpoint. I, yeah, I'm going to go 30. Yeah, if, if you had a certain plan for Stevenson, that maybe, you know, let us know, and that could bump it up a couple steps,
Starting point is 00:08:35 but ultimately you're losing value. Like, real quick, I would assume that the plan here is that one of them is D.H and Murphy is the backup. Right. But again, now you're carrying three catchers, three pure catchers. Stevenson, like, Stevenson, Raleigh, and Murphy,
Starting point is 00:08:52 they can't do anything but catch, right? So, yeah. And by the way, if your plan is to D.H. Stevenson, right? If that's part of the plan, then Stevenson's not as valuable as what you're trading because a big part of Stevenson's value is that he's a good catcher.
Starting point is 00:09:08 So it just... And look, this is a moot point because the Reds are not trading him for this package. They're just not. He's coming off a really good year. Like, he's got club control. He's young. And again, he's like, they're only good major league hitter right now. He's like, yeah,
Starting point is 00:09:23 they're going to value him rather high. And I know that the Reds have a pretty, you know, the Mariners have a pretty good rapport with the Reds right now, but yeah, I just, I don't see this at all. I don't. All right. We got more trades coming up here in just a moment, but real quick, a reminder of this episode of Lockdown Mariners is brought to you by Bilt Bar looking for a delicious treat, but don't want all the fat and calories, and you got to try Bilt Bar. We just got through the holidays and I know my goal is to eat a little healthier this year. And if you're like me, where you want to eat healthier, but don't want to
Starting point is 00:09:55 compromise taste. Man, I've got to. just the thing for you. You gotta try Bilt. With Bilt Healthy is actually tasty. Seriously, they're so delicious you won't think they're good for you, which is perfect for your New Year's resolution. What makes Bilt Bar so good? Well, for starters, they are all covered in 100% real chocolate. That's right, real chocolate. And they come in unbelievable flavors like churro, peanut brownie, and coconut almond. I'm not sure how Bilt does it, but these bars taste like a candy bar while maintaining amazing macros. And what's even better is that they are healthy. Only 130 calories and four grams of sugar with a whopping 17 grams of protein.
Starting point is 00:10:31 And now you don't need to wait around to get a box. For years, we've been talking about ordering your built bars at built.com. Now you can get them at your local Walmart or Sam's Club. That's right. Head to your nearest Walmart today. Walk to the pharmacy section and grab yourself a box of built bars. You can pick up a four bar box of cookies and cream, double chocolate or coconut puffs. And if you're close to Sam's Club, run in and grab a 13 bar box with our hit flavors,
Starting point is 00:10:54 brownie batter, and chiro. You can thank me later. And you're listening to the Lockdown Mariners podcast. Thank you again for making us your first. Listen, let's get back into these trades here on Fan Fiction Friday, starting with Anthony, who has, this one looks really familiar, Colby. Anthony, are you a subscriber of the Control the Zone podcast on patreon.com forward slash control the zone? Because Colby, I think we've talked about this deal before. Taylor Tremel and Brian Wu for Seth Brown.
Starting point is 00:11:27 yeah 30 yeah no I think that's probably about what it would take it feels like a little bit of an overpay for Seattle just but you know Ty and I are both Brian Wu guys so yeah so yeah I think you know
Starting point is 00:11:46 you did talk about this on our Patreon show I'd give it like a 50 I think it's I think it's pretty solid I don't know if it would cost that much like I would say say there's a non-zero chance you get it for Tramel straight up just because Brown's really only had one year
Starting point is 00:12:02 of being like a true everyday player but you know he does have four years of club control and Tramel does have questions so I think this is about the right range that it would cost to acquire Brown and if the Mariners did that then like I would be tough for me to say that I love that deal but like I get it I understand it
Starting point is 00:12:22 and I think it makes sense so I'd say like a 50 yeah as we talked about on or a Patreon show. I mean, he's an averageish defender in a corner spot. He's actually, like his worst spot has been first base, oddly enough, but he can stand at first base, which is something that I, you know, you and I have said is something that the Mariners could use, someone that can play for space here and there, especially if the inevitable Thai France injury comes around. And this is a guy that, you know, he crush his right-handed pitching. He's posted, you know, 100 plus WRC plus in every single season that he's played in this far.
Starting point is 00:12:57 And he's stayed healthy for the most part 150 games played this past year You know 23305 444 that's not great But again you look at what he's done against Ritey's pretty dang good And you get him for four years That's gonna cost you something that's gonna cost you something for sure And I think Wu like the range of Wu and Tremel is is pretty much a perfect spot for Brown. That's about as far as I'm willing to go on on Seth Brown. So yeah,
Starting point is 00:13:32 considering we've already talked about this, you don't get much of a bumping grade for creativity. I'm sorry, but I'll give you, I'll give you a 55 because I think it's, it's pretty on the money. All right. Let's, let's move on here to Randy. Randy has the Mariners getting lefty reliever Joe Mantiply from the
Starting point is 00:13:54 Diamondbacks for Perlander Baroa and Spencer Spencer Packard. Colby, your thoughts? Not nearly enough for Mantiply. Also, I would be worried, like, am I buying high on Mantleply? Probably. Again, not that I would happily give up Baroa
Starting point is 00:14:14 and Packard for him, but there's probably a pretty good chance you're not getting the guy you think you're getting. But I, even at that, I don't think that the death diamondbacks do this. There's really no reason for them to. It appears, at least on paper, that the diamondbacks are trying to improve this year. At the very least, we know they're not tearing it down or anything like that. And that's kind of what this trade would be. It's kind of
Starting point is 00:14:42 a rebuild type of move. But yeah, I just don't see Arizona doing this. It's, only part of it is because I really don't like Peralanderboro all that much. But, But I just I don't hate Perlano Barra confirmed. Yeah, I have him one spot lower than Ty does in our prospect ranks, but I hate him, sure. By the way, prospect week, coming up
Starting point is 00:15:10 soon. We're going to be doing it. Yep. I would say next week, but You'll see. You guys will see at the end of the show. Give us 10 minutes, you'll see. Our plans got a little derailed and for a good reason. We're very, very good reason. We actually haven't discussed how how that's going to work, but we'll
Starting point is 00:15:28 get to that later. It's not important right now. I just don't think that the Diamondbacks are going to entertain this. I think if you know they were going to trade Mantiply, it'd probably be, I bet they asked for like Emerson Hancock or something like that, and that's just no, not happening. So, yeah,
Starting point is 00:15:44 I'd give it like a 40. Manciply is, yeah, Manciple is coming off of a really nice year. I believe he was an all-star. He was their all-star this past year. You know, lefty. And I know you guys really want a lefty in this Mariners bullpen.
Starting point is 00:16:03 He averaged a little over a K per nine, didn't walk anyone. He walked under one guy per nine, which is pretty wild in 60 innings pitch, no less. 285 ERA, 283 FIP, 252XFIP. He was really good. He was worth 1.2F4 on the year. And he was pretty good in 2021 as well, 39 and two thirds innings pitch, 862Ks per nine, 386 walks per nine, three four OERA, 9 4-fip.
Starting point is 00:16:31 Yeah, it's just you're going to have to pay more than this. And at that point, I don't, because like you said, I feel like I might be buying a little too high here on Joe Manzaply. I don't think this, I don't think his 22 numbers are who he actually is. And so, yeah, yeah, I don't feel particularly great about that. So I'll go 35 on this. right next trade comes from ham swaggerty 69 tigers gets jared celnick brian woo and michael morales for austin meadows and jason foley who is a right-handed reliever um so we've talked about meadows on her show but this is too much uh even with the inclusion of foley who i think has like six years of club control um foley is just like he He's had a good, you know, he had a good year this past year, but he doesn't strike guys out.
Starting point is 00:17:34 He's just, he's just a dude. He's a mid-leverage reliever. And Meadows has one year left and, you know, nothing against Awesome Meadows, but, you know, he is coming off of a year where he's dealt with some mental health issues. He's dealt with some injury issues. I just don't know where he's at. There isn't really any certainty there with Meadows. So a good good hitter who would certainly you know help. I just this is way too much.
Starting point is 00:18:06 Yeah. Foley is pit Murphy only statistically worse. So Foley doesn't really help you that much because we talked about this on Wednesday show. As we record this on Wednesday. But the mariner's bullpen. Yeah. The Mariners bullpen is pretty much set, we think, more or less. And the guys who might be able to push into this bullpen are probably better than Foley.
Starting point is 00:18:33 So he doesn't really add much to this deal. So what it really comes down to is it's Kelnick Wu and Morales for Austin Meadows. It's a gross overpay. Meadows doesn't really help you defensively. He's a DH only, which fine, you know, whatever. That's kind of what the Mariners need right now. And he can play left field or right field without crushing you. So I think Meadows is a good target.
Starting point is 00:18:53 I just think he's got two years of club control left and you're giving up five years of kill. Yeah, but you're still getting up five years of Kellnick, six years of Wu and six years of Morales for two years of a 115 WRC plus guy coming off of injury. Yeah. No, it's an overpay. Yeah, so I'm open to the idea of Austin Meadows, just not for this at all. 35 for me. Yeah, I'll go 30. It's a pretty drastic overpay.
Starting point is 00:19:24 Yeah, yeah. It's a lot. That's a lot of stuff. All right, uh, Colin has, uh, the diamond backs getting Tyler Locklear, Chris Flex and Travis Coon,
Starting point is 00:19:35 uh, and the Mariners get Christian Walker. This is too little, I would, I would say for the diamond backs. I also, you know, frankly,
Starting point is 00:19:44 I don't know what the diamond backs would really want with Chris Flex and I know they're weird. I know the diamond backs are really weird. So maybe they would want Chris Flexen, but I, I just, I, from the outside looking and I have no idea of,
Starting point is 00:19:56 how that would make sense. and how that would add any sort of value to the steel for the Diamondbacks to give up one of their better hitters. Locklear is someone that you and I are both fairly low on, lower than I would think a lot of prospect outlets are. So as a leading piece, he doesn't do a lot for me here either. Yeah, I mean, Locklear's ceiling is probably Christian Walker, and Christian Walker is good now.
Starting point is 00:20:24 So why would the Diamondbacks do this? flexing I'm going to guess Collins ideas that that's kind of offset salaries because that's the only thing I can see that makes sense sure and every organization has the Travis Coon in their system so he's not really going to add much value so essentially it's Locklear for Walker why would I trade Walker now for
Starting point is 00:20:47 and by the way Travis Coon teams could have drafted him in the Rule 5 right you know the mayors could have protected him from the Rule 5 and they didn't So right. Yeah. Yeah, but this is essentially asking the Diamondbacks to trade, you know, Christian Walker now for maybe a chance at Christian Walker in three or four years. Right. It just, it doesn't work.
Starting point is 00:21:06 So, yeah, I don't see it. I don't think Christian Walker is getting traded. At least not, not before the season starts. But even if he did, it's probably going to be a little more expensive than this. I don't know. We always say maybe the Diamondbacks love Tyler Locklear. We don't know, but best on what we know right now,
Starting point is 00:21:27 I'd give this one like a 35. It's just, it's too light. Now, Mariners traded tie France for Pablo Lopez. Christian Walker could become an option. No. I'm going to go 30 on this one.
Starting point is 00:21:42 I just, I don't, this isn't even a conversation starter, I think, for the dumbing backs. All right. Next trade comes from Big Bat 96. Sent this one last week,
Starting point is 00:21:53 but there was no fan, Fiction Friday. Taylor Trimel and Prolander Baroa for Yandi Diaz. Yandi Diaz is such a weird player to evaluate, at least for me, because he's essentially a full-time DH who doesn't hit for power, but hits for a lot of average. He's like,
Starting point is 00:22:08 he's kind of Luisarize in a way, like, elite. Yeah, from the right side. Just elite on base skills. But again, no power. And he doesn't give you anything defensively. So how do you value that guy? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:22:23 Yeah, like he's fine at first and like he'll stand at third, which pretty much just describes our eyes. They're very similar hitters. And both are coming off of what is likely going to be their career year. So you're buying high on either of them. I think the problem here is I do think that the race would be open to trading Yaddi. I don't think they're trying to, but I think they're open to it. The issue here is that what you're offering is our 240 man guys. And the raise are one of the few teams in the league that have massive.
Starting point is 00:22:53 40 man issues every single year. So they'd have to kick somebody off of their 40 man to accept this trade. And do they really want to do that for Tramel or Baroa? Probably not. Probably not. And also, we know Tramel struggles. They're pretty prolific right now. I think Tramel is kind of a proof of concept right now.
Starting point is 00:23:13 Like, he has to go out and he has to hit at some point before he's going to have much trade value. And Baroa is just a reliever. Now, the raise are a little weird. So you can't ever just dismiss anything offhand. But this I don't see them doing because, again, you have to add both of these guys to your 40 man. So not only are you trading Yandi Diaz, you're trading essentially somebody else off of your 40 man to add these two guys. And I just don't think that they would be willing to do that for either of them.
Starting point is 00:23:40 So I think it's too light. I think, you know, Yandi is an interesting get if you can go get him. But he's certainly not like the ideal fit. He's a right-handed hitter. There's not much power. he has versatility, but not really. I think, you know, if you're looking for a race hitter who might make sense here, I think ESOC Paredes makes a little more sense.
Starting point is 00:24:03 But, yeah, I just, I don't see the raise speed. Yeah, yeah. I don't see the, I mean, at least Paredes has some major league success, though. So, yeah, yeah. But yeah, I think they're interested in trading, like, or I think they're open to trading any of those guys. I just think that what you're looking to, if you're going to try and put an offer together,
Starting point is 00:24:22 I think they're going to come to you and be like, let's talk, you know, Lazaro Montes. Guy, we don't have to put on the 40 man for a couple of years, has huge upside. And I think,
Starting point is 00:24:31 I think that's probably fair for them to ask. I wouldn't do it, but I think it's probably fair. Yeah. Or if you had more depth than your bullpen, I'd be open to talking like Paul Seawald and something. Sure. Like I said,
Starting point is 00:24:43 the Razor creative. So is Jerry. That's why they're, they've made a couple trades in the, in the past. you know five years but they're both creative so I don't want to say that it's definitely not going to happen
Starting point is 00:24:56 but I don't think it's going to happen for that for that trade package and I think the 40 man concern is actually a bigger part of the reason why so yeah if the raise didn't have the 40 men crunch and they they weren't competing like if they were a bad team selling off I think this would be close-ish I think you still
Starting point is 00:25:12 have to give more than what you're offering here but yeah in terms of where the rays are right now where the mariners are right now this I'll give it a 40 but I don't think this gets it done ultimately yeah because of the the me nature of yundi and his fit here and the issues with the 40 man I I think the most I could give it is probably a 40 but yeah again the race are weird so who knows who knows who knows all right last trade of the day it's a pretty big one it's another marlins Mariners one. This one comes from Nate. Marlins receive pick number 30, Jared Kellnick,
Starting point is 00:25:56 Emerson Hancock, and Matt Brash for Jesus Sanchez and Edward Cabrera. This is a big boy. This is a big boy, Colby. What do you think? It is one of the worst tradeoff. No, I'm joking. Yeah, it's a big one, right? Yeah. I think. it's an overpay. But I also think it doesn't really make sense for the Marlins all that much. Like Sanchez is starting outfielder. The Marlins are looking to collect outfielders, not trade them away. And Cabrera is interesting, but he does have, what, six years of club control. He's been a little hit or miss at the big league level. So when you look at what the mirrors are giving up here, you know, Matt Brash is a huge piece of this bullpen. He's going to help them this year. You can't say the same for Cabrera. I mean, you really can't. And by the way, Price Miller, honestly, is a better pitching prospect than Cabrera? So is Cabrera even like the next guy up?
Starting point is 00:26:57 I don't know. So how much value does that have? Sanchez is interesting because he's a lefty. He can play, you know, all three outfield spots. Didn't have a great year last year. I think he posted 93 WRC plus. But he's a useful fourth outfield type of piece. But that is what, if the cost of that is, you know,
Starting point is 00:27:15 Jared Kelnick, Emerson, Hancock, in a comp round B pick or a pick, it's too much. It's a drastic overpay for two guys who are interesting, certainly, but neither of them have enough of a track record that I can guarantee they're going to help me more this year than Brash or Kelnick. And then on top of that, I'm giving up, you know, the second best pitching prospect in my system who still has, you know, number four written all over him and, you know, a top 30 pick, first round pick essentially. it's just it's a drastic overpay. Yeah, my question here, my first question I'm reading this is
Starting point is 00:27:51 why do the Mariners need to do this? Yeah. Because, you know, Sanchez again regressed this year. I mean, there's a ton of talent, ton of upside, not denying that, ton of upside there with Cabrera as well.
Starting point is 00:28:05 But neither of these guys are consistently producing in the major league level, same as Jared Kelnick. And I already have Kelnik. And he raised, now is penciled in as a part-time starter for me. On top of that, I'm taking away a big piece of my bullpen and Matt Brash.
Starting point is 00:28:23 I'm taking away a, you know, a top 30 draft pick who it likely becomes a top 100 prospect in baseball or at least, you know, a top 10 guy in my own farm system. That's a really valuable asset. And I'm also removing another top six-ish prospect from my farm system. I just, this is a lot for a couple of guys that I just, I don't need. They're interesting, like they're really interesting players with a lot of upside. You know, it's a great upside play, you know, just talking about those two guys in general. But I don't need to do that this year.
Starting point is 00:28:56 Right. And I think on top of that, you don't trust those guys that you're kidding. I don't trust them. Yeah, no. Right. And so if it, if you don't trust Hesu Sanchez. Like maybe Hesu-Such is better than Jared Kelnick, but like, low-border to clear. Yeah, well, like, what's the ups and what's the ups and?
Starting point is 00:29:15 side of Sanchez, like a 110 WRC plus guy? He was 114, I think, in 2021. So let's just go about that. Okay, so let's say he's 114, right? What does Kelnick have to be for Brash to be worth giving that up? You know what I mean? Like, because if Kelnick is like
Starting point is 00:29:33 an 85, is that 20% worth giving up Matt Brash and replacing Matt Brash with Justin Topa? No. It's not. It's not. So like Kelnick has, for that to be an equal tradeoff, Kelnick has to be like a 45 WRC plus guy.
Starting point is 00:29:50 And because they brought in Pollock to kind of protect him, I don't see that happening. So I just don't think the gap between those two is enough. And then Cabrera, like, even if you want to break it down, it's like Kelnick and, let's say Hancock, right, for Sanchez. No, I'd rather have my guys.
Starting point is 00:30:09 And then it's Brash and the comp pick for Cabrera. No, like Brash is going. to help me this year. Factorra. He's a good arm. Don't get me wrong. Cabrera's a nice player. He's a very interesting player, but you can't trust him.
Starting point is 00:30:25 And so there's a chance here that the Mariners are trading three players who impact their 20-23 roster and the 30th overall pick for two guys who might not. So or for one guy who might not, Sanchez is pretty safe, I think. I think Sanchez is safe, but you're overpaying for safety at the expense of upside. Yeah. But what, like, if we're just trying to gauge here, I mean, Sanchez is going to give you league average production this year. Mm-hmm. I mean, that's fine, but not for this trade costs. Right. Like, what, what do you think the odds are that Jared Kalnick finishes the year with a 100 WRC plus? Not great, but I think he gets close.
Starting point is 00:31:06 Especially with 15%. With Pollock. Yeah, like, yeah, probably around 15%, because we're 10%. Because with the presence of Pollock, like you said, they're protecting him more. He's not going to face as many lefties. Like he should be able to post better overall numbers. Right. And even when he struggles, Kelnick is like 85 WRC plus against Rides. So, yeah, like hypothetically, if Kellick just does what he does and Cabrera or Sanchez, I think, is like a one 106 WRC plus guy career.
Starting point is 00:31:38 We're talking about 21% difference offensively. Is that worth the competitive balance pick? Matt Brash, who's probably your second best reliever right now? And Emerson Hancock, who's your second best pitching prospect? No, it's an overpay. Like, you can go get a Jesus from someone else and not give up this much. You can do it. You just go trade for Corey Dickerson or go trade for, you know, whoever, pick a left-handed hitting,
Starting point is 00:32:08 go sign Robbie Grossman. Like, you can get Cabrera. I think Cory Dickerson is signed, by the way. He did, but I'm talking about like in July. Oh, yeah. So, yeah, I just, it's an overpay for two players that I, I don't trust. And I think Sanchez is a, I don't want to say margin. He's somewhere between a marginal insignificant upgrade.
Starting point is 00:32:33 He's somewhere closer to marginal than significant. So I think it's really interesting. I think it's, you know, it's unique. It's something we haven't seen before. I just think it's a gross overpay for question marks. Agreed. I would give this like a 35, honestly, but because it's really interesting, because these are guys that we haven't talked about before,
Starting point is 00:32:57 because we had a really interesting conversation to come out of this. I'll bump you up to a 45. 42 and a half. Ah, he wanted to be different. Yeah, look at him. 42 and 5 8s. Okay. I like that.
Starting point is 00:33:17 Yeah. 716s. We should start doing decimal points. 42.33333337. Didn't see that coming. Yeah. All right. Let's waste no more time.
Starting point is 00:33:33 Let's tell the folks what we're up to. I forgot we were doing that. Yeah. Yeah. I would have cut the last conversation a lot shorter. We're recording on Wednesday here. So it doesn't feel like we should be talking about this yet, but we are talking about it.
Starting point is 00:33:47 All right. So if you saw on Twitter on Tuesday night. Tuesday. Yep, Tuesday night. So last night for us, but three nights ago for you guys, we tweeted, we are up to something and that there is an announcement coming on Friday. So here we are.
Starting point is 00:34:05 Joining us next week on the Lockdown Mariners podcast is a certain president of baseball operations for your Seattle Mariners. Yes, folks. Chills. Jerry DePoto is joining the Lockdown Mariners podcast. Let's go. Let's go. Come on. Yes. Right? Yep. I think we are running something down below. Leave in the comments section, how long it'll take before I piss off Jerry to Poto enough that he never does our show again. like it's the over under like eight minutes seven and a half minutes i don't know but i'm gonna have to keep you in check i'm gonna have to avoid all dylan more talk
Starting point is 00:34:47 just had the dump button yeah exactly yeah he's sliding that way click but uh yeah no it's it's uh it's exciting man like jerry's been at the top of our our wish list for a long time um and you know we we get to cross them off and and it's it's obviously it's the biggest interview we've done so far on the show only because Julio won't return my text or DMs, but whatever. We'll get to that bridge later. Maybe Jerry can work us up. Yeah, maybe.
Starting point is 00:35:17 Maybe. So yeah, we're going to have Jerry to Poto on the show, which is like, you know, for us, that's like as big as we could hope for. So, yeah, it's like I say, he's been number one on our board. He bumped Goldsmith a little while ago. And then Julio bumped Goldsmiths sitting solidly at three. So once Jerry, you know, comes on, then. then Goldsmith will bump up to two.
Starting point is 00:35:41 And Goldie, if you're listening, you don't want to get bumped down further. Do not go to St. Louis. Look in my eyes. Do not go to St. Louis. That would be the end of you on our board forever. Exactly. But yes, we are, be careful. We are talking to the man himself, Jerry DePoto.
Starting point is 00:35:58 We're going to be talking to him on Wednesday. I think we might try to actually release that on Wednesday night. We're talking to them at two Pacific time. But I might try to just get that. Yeah, ish. But I might try to get that out same day because, you know, knowing us, knowing our luck, we wait until Friday. And then like half of our questions become irrelevant because he went out and traded for Brian Reynolds or what have you. So yeah, well, yeah, probably not.
Starting point is 00:36:25 But, you know. Yeah. So we'll, so that might be Wednesday show. We'll keep you guys posted on that. Maybe it's a Thursday morning thing instead. But we'll see. But we'll let you guys know. But yeah, we're very, very excited about this.
Starting point is 00:36:41 We didn't expect this to happen. It just kind of randomly came together as of Monday and Tuesday, but here we are. Jerry DeFoto is coming on the show. Sometimes when you shoot your shot, you hit your target. That's right. That's right. So, yeah, excited to have Jerry, nervous to have Jerry. I think Ty and I are probably going to prep more than we have for anything else that we've done a lock on while still trying to maintain our certain.
Starting point is 00:37:05 Geneseequa Yeah Yeah whatever you want to call Like yeah Because the last thing Like I don't think we want this to be like a 710 interview Where we're like Tell us what you're going to do next
Starting point is 00:37:19 Oh you're not going to? Okay Or you're excited to have fans at the ballpark Like what do the fans mean to you like no We're not going to do that We're going to ask some real questions We're going to yeah We're going to have some fun
Starting point is 00:37:34 We're going to maybe we'll even talk to him about some memes, you know, who knows. Maybe, but we also don't want to be like, you know, like just a silly like, oh, yeah, Jerry, you're just going to make fun of Jerry. And like, we don't want to be essentially like we want to be Stephen Colbert more than we want to be like James Gordon, right? Well, for you, you're Stephen Colbert, Colbert Patnaud. Yeah. Yeah, okay. You got to earn that Colbert. You got to earn the.
Starting point is 00:38:02 I feel like I have. Do I earn it if I don't make Jerry so mad that he hangs up on us? Sure, sure. If Jerry says he'll come back on the show because of you, I'll call you Colbert. Because of me. Like, ooh. All right, yeah. So, I mean, I guess if you guys have questions, maybe you come up with a better one than we do.
Starting point is 00:38:23 We might ask it. But like, leave your questions down below. Who knows? But Ty and I are pretty much going to spend the weekend trying to hammer out like a tight 15 minute interview with Jerry Depoto. Yep. I surprised Colby with that one, by the way. I didn't tell him that I was reaching out to Jerry.
Starting point is 00:38:43 And so I, because I didn't think that Jerry was getting back to me. So, and all of a sudden, he got back to me within 24 hours. And I'm like, oh, what do I do?
Starting point is 00:38:53 I didn't plan for this. So yeah, I sent Colby the screenshot on Tuesday night. And then quickly, uh, started teasing it on Twitter. And, uh,
Starting point is 00:39:03 but now it's confirmed. It's confirmed by the man himself that he will be joining us next Wednesday. Obviously, he's a busy man, so things could change. But for now, he is scheduled to meet with us at 2 o'clock Pacific time on Wednesday. So look forward to that. All right, that's going to do it for our show. Thank you so much for joining us here on the Lockdown Mariners podcast for Colby Pat. I'm Tadine Gonzalez.
Starting point is 00:39:23 Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L0 underscore Mariners. You can follow me at Dan Gonzalez, the C-A-N-ZL-L-Z and Colby at C-E-Pat-E-E-1. You can also find all that stuff in the description. of this episode. And thank you again for making us your first listen. Now make your second listen locked on MLB prospects. Host Lindsay Crosby is a prospect encyclopedia. And he's going deep on the MLB stars of tomorrow.
Starting point is 00:39:45 It's free and available wherever you get your podcast just like us. And with that, have yourself a beautiful baseball day and a beautiful baseball weekend. And we'll see you on Monday. Peace. Chills. Chills.

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.