Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Have the Mariners Misjudged the Market and Can They Adapt?

Starting point is 00:00:00 After losing out on Carlos Santana, the Marys may pivot away from looking at the first space market. We'll discuss that and more coming up here on the Lockdown Marrars podcast. Colby, hit it. You are Locked on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. Ahoy, Sailors. It is Thursday, December 26, 2024.

Starting point is 00:00:29 This is Tadding Azales and Colby Patnaud for the Lockdown Marys Podcasts. Part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. on today's show. We're talking about Ryan Divish's latest column in the Seattle Times, and specifically a note he had about the mayor's first base situation after they lost out on Carlos Santana this past weekend. Plus, are the mayors being patient or is there inaction so far due to the misreading the market? And finally, Korean infielder Haishon Kim's decision is fast approaching, and the mayors are apparently one of the three teams still seriously in on him. We'll get into all that in just a moment. But before we do, shout out to our title

Starting point is 00:01:04 sponsor today. FanDuel. The NFL playoffs are almost here, but it's not too late to get in on the regular season to action with FanDuel, because right now, new customers can finish the season strong with $250 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins. Visit FanDuel.com to get started. And if you want to hear from me and Colby even more and help support the show, check out our Patreon. All you have to do to check that out is click the link in the description of this episode. So Ryan Divish wrote an article a few days ago on the Seattle Times that, uh, After losing out on Carlos Santana, he basically confirmed the Ken Rosenthal report, by the way, about the contract that was offered to Santana being more guaranteed money, having a player option, all of that, that the may just pivot away from the first base market, roll with a platoon of Luke Rayleigh and Tyler Locklear at first base and then go out on the trade market and look for a second baseman or a third baseman, not both, apparently, at least according to his sources. So we talked about this a little bit on our Patreon episode on Tuesday.

Starting point is 00:02:09 So, Colby, you've had a little more time to ruminate on this thing. What do you think about that? I think it's pretty stupid to count on Tyler Locklear to be anything more than a warm body at the end of your bench. Dude was bad last year, like legitimately bad. He had like a 40% strikeout rate in the big leagues. He wasn't really any good in AAA Tacoma. you know, 103 WRC plus in the PCL. That's that's not great.

Starting point is 00:02:38 He's got theoretical power in game power, but he hasn't really shown it. This isn't a guy who's hitting 30 bombs in the miners. So yeah, you're basically hoping upon hope that this guy is big league ready, despite literally zero evidence suggesting they are. And oh, by the way, the Mariners don't think Tyler Locklear was big league ready, or at least they didn't a month ago. And guess what? There's no new evidence that suggests he is.

Starting point is 00:03:06 And the reason you know the Mariners thought that is because there was no discussion about Locklear being in the first base plans for 2025 before now. There was no thought that, hey, let's see if Ty Locklear can play third. Maybe he's a solution over there. None of that existed until now. So, yeah, the Mariners are full of it. They think that they're going to sell us on, oh, Lockler's ready to be in the big leagues when they didn't think he was a month ago. Yeah. This is the first time we've heard Locklear's name.

Starting point is 00:03:32 legitimately dropped. And this is also the first time, even though this is something that you and I have talked about a lot, this is the first time we've heard someone like Ryan DeVish actually mentioned Luke Raley as part of a potential first base solution. So, yeah, this is obviously not their first, second, or third plan. Or maybe it is. Maybe Carlos San, maybe they went into this offseason. Carlos Santana was their only plan. Yeah, it's, and by the way, that we didn't even talk about how stupid it is to have a guy on your team whose sole purpose.

Starting point is 00:04:02 is to play first base against left-handed pitching only. Like, you're going to burn a bench spot on a guy who is going to play first base 50 times a year for you. And that's it. That's his whole role. That on top of everything else makes it even more stupid. And so, yeah, the idea, like, pivoting away from first base, I think is actually a fine idea. I've talked about this for the last week or so. like you have a first baseman on your roster who is pretty darn good in Luke Grayley.

Starting point is 00:04:36 You don't need a first baseman. You need bats. You need to free up Luke Rayleigh to be able to play first. So if you, if Divish is telling us like, yeah, the mayor is going to get a third basement and an outfielder who's going to kind of rotate through the D.H and play some corner outfield and whatnot. Like great, that makes a lot of sense. Rayleigh can play first.

Starting point is 00:04:57 Boom, problem solved. But if you're going to waste a roster spot, on Ty Locklear, you're not serious about winning in 2025. No shot. So is the inaction from the Marys so far an example of patience or have they truly misread the market? We'll get into that a little bit more here in just a moment. But first a reminder of this episode of the Lockdown Marys podcast is brought to you by Rocket

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Starting point is 00:07:01 That's a lot of fun for us as content creators. So, again, going back to the first base conversation, a lot of first baseman still out there. And Justin Turner is someone that they've outright said that they had interest in. But yeah, maybe the conversations that they've had with Turner's Camp have changed their feelings on that after seeing what Goldschmidt got, after seeing what Santana got. So the market is a bit different than what they expected.

Starting point is 00:07:33 Right. So we think. Right. So apparently they were at the top of the market for Santana. Which again, kind of brings us back to the conversation of like, how much money do they really have? Because like, right. Now, the 2025 hit on Santana could be as low as like $8 million. And then the guarantee that takes it over 12.

Starting point is 00:07:56 could be like a $5 million buyout on his player option. Something like that, you know? It could be. I don't know if that is, but it could be. So maybe they weren't spending 80 to 85% of their budget on just Carlos Santana alone in 2025, right? Yeah. Again, that's working off of the projection that's been floating out there. Sure.

Starting point is 00:08:19 But if that is the case, if they were, like, floating, you know, $11, $12 million in 2025 alone to Santana maybe they only or maybe they have more than that $16 million spend right so still I just I look at the situation I look at the information that we do have available to us from people that should be in the no at least to a certain degree I mean obviously the mayors aren't going to just outright tell anyone what their budget is at least they shouldn't right that does them no favors having that information be publicly available but we can all take an educated guess and

Starting point is 00:08:58 you know, the Adam Judes and the Daniel Kramer's and the Shannon Dreyers of the world would know more than that any of anyone else of us would. So, yeah, you know, you approach this market with potentially $16 to $20 million and one of the best farm systems is baseball. And so far it seems like most of the league outside of like three or four teams are going, we don't want your prospects. We don't want any prospects. And then so at that point the meta is in the market, you got to go spend money. and if you only have $16 to $20 million and guys like Carlos Santana are making 12 right then you can't do what you want to do right so yeah do you think they mess around the market or do you think they are just being patient kind of just laying on the cut seeing what

Starting point is 00:09:46 happens seeing how things fall it's kind of tough to say because aside from Santana I can't think of a single player that signed that the the Mariners were linked to as anything more than probably leverage. Like Paul Goldschmidt signs like 18 hours after he's linked to the Mariners for the first time ever, all of a sudden he gets a deal done. Like, okay, Goldschmidt signs. Like Santana's the one guy who's been consistently linked to the Mariners all winter. We know they had interest in and signed somewhere else.

Starting point is 00:10:19 Like he's the only guy so far that we know the Mariners had interest in anyone elsewhere. Now, part of that is because we just don't know all the guys the Mariners are interested in. I hope we don't, at least. But assuming we don't, then, you know, there's probably more guys that they like that are still available. Again, I haven't seen a deal that was made that I looked at and been like, yeah, the Mariners liked that guy. They didn't get them. Very few deals where it's like, you know, the Mariners should have beat that even if they didn't like the guy. Like there's the Jake Burger trades.

Starting point is 00:10:54 Like, yeah, the Mariners probably should have been in on him at that price, even if they didn't love the player. But other than that, I mean, guys who have been linked to the Mariners pretty consistently, Hysong Kim, he's still out there. Roki Sasaki is still out there. Justin Turner's still out there. So it's a little tough to say. Alec Bill.

Starting point is 00:11:17 Right. Still out there. Right. And it's not like, again, it's not like the Mariners like, offered Santana $6 million thinking that's all he was going to get. And then he got 12 from, no, they offered more than Cleveland. And they offered a little bit more than Goldschmidt.

Starting point is 00:11:33 So they were pretty much like right in the range that it was going to end up taking to get a guy like Santana. So I don't know. Maybe they missed around the trade market thinking the prospects were going to be valuable. But again, like who's been traded for pure prospects? Jake Berger is it, really. Garrett Crochet, too, but Crochet, never going to be a mariner. That wasn't going to be a thing. And again, that's the White Sox.

Starting point is 00:11:59 That's the Marlins. Right. And those are teams that are one of the, two of the only teams, as far as I know, the only teams that are willing to take prospect-led packages for their players. There's just not a lot on either of those rosters either. So for all we know, at the beginning of the year, the Cardinals are going to be like, let's start talking some prospects here because we need to move guys off this roster and big league trades for big league trades are hard and why do we care we win 84 games instead

Starting point is 00:12:26 of 78 next year what's the difference let's talk bernaddonovan let's talk hellsley let's talk you know large new bar for prospects uh so again the market is still evolving but it's tough for me to say that the mayor's misread it or if they're being patient uh because again it's just like not a lot of their guys or the guys that we know they like have been removed from the market so far. So it's a little bit tough to say, but if I had to wager, I would say it's more misreading than it is patience. Yeah. I would say that that seems to be true, at least in terms of the first base market. Again, if they're like, they wanted Santana, they were willing to go far with Santana, but maybe they're not willing to do the same for Justin Turner, who, again, they outwardly said,

Starting point is 00:13:17 we have interest in bringing back. So clearly something changed. Right. So if they are pivoting away from first base while Turner is still out there, then clearly something is different than what they expected. Right. The most like misreading the market is not the sin of the front office right now. Refusing to adapt to the market you misread and are now getting a clearer picture of,

Starting point is 00:13:45 that would be devastated. Like it's one thing to go. I'm thinking prices are going to be this and it turns out they're actually this. Okay. Like, that's not great, but whatever. You misread it. What you can't do is be like, nope, we're going to wait for the market to be exactly what we thought it was going to be. Because you know what?

Starting point is 00:14:02 Yeah. Not going to happen. Like the market changes, you have to adapt to it. So the Mariners still have time. They just have to accept the reality of the market that's in front of them and make their adjustments accordingly. They can't be so bullheaded that they have to just sit there and be like, well, the market doesn't do it. we thought it was going to do i guess we're just going to be out of luck which is what you know running a platoon of rayley and locklear would be would just be them like yeah we're not going to adjust to the

Starting point is 00:14:28 market can they adapt with what they have that's really my concern now is like look outside of maybe louis castillo but there's this report now from john haman today about like 20 minutes ago saying that they are frustrated with the offers that they've received so far on castillo but outside of castillo really there isn't a major leaguer that i think they could trade and that's ultimately going to help them get better in 2020. I mean, and so, it's a stretch.

Starting point is 00:14:55 Yeah, that's even, it's, I mean, again, if they're frustrated by the offers they're getting, then clearly, like,

Starting point is 00:15:01 they're not getting offers that they feel are going to make them better right now. So, they don't have that, really. If teams don't really want their prospects, and they're only, and they only have $16 to $20 million to spend, can they even afford to adapt?

Starting point is 00:15:18 My thing is, is that you better find a way to. At the end of the day, I don't care how hard it was. You've run out of excuses, right? You can't use the same excuse three years in a row. Can't. Sorry. So figure it out. Like, I don't, we can't.

Starting point is 00:15:38 There's nothing. What are we supposed to do? Trey from Lamont Wade to play first base? Yes. If that's the best you can do, yes, it is. What, you want us to, you know, pay $130. 130 cents on the dollar with prospects. So we could just go get this guy.

Starting point is 00:15:52 Yes, that's what you do. 2025 is the most important season. Right? This one upcoming is more important than 2026. We talk about this all the time. You don't have to be reckless, but you do have to be aggressive. And so you have to adapt to the market. And again, like, hey, you know what?

Starting point is 00:16:10 Not many teams are taking prospects. You know who is the White Sox? Who's the White Sox have that could help you? Louise Robert Jr., but he doesn't play first base. Who cares? They're one of the teams. You know who can play for a space? Luke Rayleigh.

Starting point is 00:16:23 Well, you can stand there. So there you go. Hey, the Marlins don't have a ton, but you know what they do have? They have Jesus, Hesu, Sanchez, an outfielder who can hit and run a little bit. Yeah. They have Jonah Bride, a guy who, you know, had a 130, a WRC plus last year. Like, they have some guys. They have some, they have Nardi, like, from the bullpen.

Starting point is 00:16:45 Like, don't tell me that you can't. go make trades with your prospects, you absolutely can because I'm here to tell you that Garrett Crochet, that was not an overpay. None of the trades we've seen have been an overpay. And frankly, this is a front office that has to have some sense of urgency here. And I do wonder if maybe they have been given insurances from ownership that, look, you're good. No matter what happens in 2025, you're good. You're here for 2026. But from the outside looking at, given what's happened the last few years, front office should be on the hot seat, at least a little bit.

Starting point is 00:17:25 And right now, this doesn't seem like a front office that feels any sort of pressure. That feels like they're having to essentially fight for their jobs. So, again, still a lot of offices and go. They can do all their heavy lifting still. There's plenty of time. And a lot of the guys that, you know, we've heard them connected to, and we've spent a lot of time on this show talking about are still out there. But yeah, right now it just doesn't seem like they have the facilities essentially to get what they want to do across the finish line.

Starting point is 00:18:03 And that to me is a little concerning. And it's also a little bit concerning about if they are able to adapt with the resources that they have at hand and what the meta of the market is right now. I mean, yeah. to quote the great manager, Jim Halpert, you got to do something, man. You just can't sit there. Sure.

Starting point is 00:18:26 Yeah. So, yeah, we'll see. And also for us personally, we would like something to actually talk about, something real, like an actual signing or trade. That would be fun. It would be great for us.

Starting point is 00:18:38 So, yeah. All right. We actually might have something to talk about here in the next week, though. Heisson Kim's deadline to sign with a teen his team is coming up on, I believe, January 3rd. And apparently there are three teams that are very interested in him still. And that includes your Seattle Marriss.

Starting point is 00:18:59 So we'll talk about that in just a moment. But first, a reminder of this episode of the Locked-on Marys podcast is once again brought to you by Fandul. The NFL playoffs are almost here, but it's not too late to get in on the regular season action with Fandul, America's number one sportsbook. Because right now, new customers can finish the season strong. with $250 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins. Not only can you bet on who will win the game, but Fanduel also has bets for which players will score a touchdown. How many points each team will score and so much more.

Starting point is 00:19:32 Just visit Fandual.com to join today. That's Fandual.com for your chance at $250 in bonus bets. Make every moment more with Fandual, an official sportsbook partner of the NFL. And you're listening to the Lockdown Mariners podcast. So according to Korean news outlet YTN, Heisan Kim, the Korean filter who's coming over from the KBO to Major League Baseball this offseason, is apparently getting strong interest from three teams.

Starting point is 00:20:04 The Angels, the Padres, and your Seattle Mariners. Now, for a while, the Mariners were really the only team I had heard connected to Kim by national media. So the news of the Padres and the Angels is a bit new, at least to me. I don't know if that's new in general, but it is new to me. I know Mark Feinson reiterated a couple of weeks ago, like the mirrors are the team we're all hearing a lot about when it comes to High Song Kim. And so, yeah, it seems that interest hasn't died as of yet. So High Sun Kim, it's big risks.

Starting point is 00:20:37 We've talked about it. We talked about him and Ha Song Kim on an episode a couple of weeks ago, Colby. There's obviously a lot of interesting tools here, a highly athletic player can play good defense can make stuff happen on the bags and he hits for contact or he has at least in the KBO but obviously major league baseball different animal than the KBO even know that the talent level has risen there as well as in MPB over in Japan as well

Starting point is 00:21:06 so this could be a deal that pays huge dividends for a team like the Marys who by all accounts aren't planning on spending a lot of this off season. But it's also possible that they look at this guy as their answer at second base and he's no better, if not worse than the options they already have in house. So, yeah, how do you feel about high song Kim now that we have a little bit more of a better picture of the off season and where the market has landed and all that and where the marries are right now considering that, again, they still haven't done anything.

Starting point is 00:21:44 Yeah. Yeah, second baseman, pretty good one. I could also play short or third. He's a good defensive player. So, you know, he gives you that. He's also a good base runner. He steals bag. So there is some floor here, but it's all about the bat, right?

Starting point is 00:21:59 And we saw Hassan Kim come over, a much more hyped prospect than Heison Kim, who, by the way, were mispronouncing his name. We will get it right if he's a mariner. If he goes back to Korea, which is a possibility, me probably won't talk about him ever again until you know he tries again uh but uh yeah it's all about money at this point because what we heard earlier is that he wanted like eight million dollars like when he first got posted a year like he wanted basically hasson kim money and based on what i had heard and what i had read and what i'd watched and what i'd looked at in the numbers i was

Starting point is 00:22:34 like no i'm not willing to do that so if he's a four to five million dollar a year player like fine. I think that's an okay risk to take. If he still wants 8, 9, 10, no, I'm not interested in that. I've watched, you know, quite a few of his at-bats that I could find over the last couple years. And most of his hits are either, you know,

Starting point is 00:22:59 flares over the shortstop's head or they are ground balls between the second and first baseman. There's not a lot of pop here. So, you know, now he has had 40 or more extra base hits each of the last two years. So that's good. He's definitely got the speed where if he puts one in the gap, he'll take the extra base often.

Starting point is 00:23:20 So again, it's an intriguing profile, like super, super poor man's Ichero is like what you're dreaming of. But there's not a lot of power here, less than even each euro, over the fence power. But he plays second base pretty good, steal 20 bags. If he gets on base enough, that's the thing. though, he's probably going to have to walk a little bit more because a lot of his on-base percentage in Korea was produced by a high batting average. Not that he doesn't walk. I think he's like 9, 10%. But if that drops, which it probably will, because obviously Major League pitching is

Starting point is 00:23:57 much better than it is in the KBO, then, you know, and he's only going to hit 250, 250, 300, like 330 is not an effective slash line unless you are a pre-year-old. year defensive second baseman, which I don't know if he's that good, but he's pretty good. So I think for me, my interest in in Kim and what I'm hoping he eventually is that he just kind of replaces Dylan Moore in the long term. And he's that kind of super utility guy, but you can move around. But there's a chance that he could be an average bat right away. And if he is an average bat with his defense and his base running, he's probably a three-win player. Yeah. I mean, could he at the very least be a poor man's

Starting point is 00:24:41 left-handed version of Nico Horner. I mean, it doesn't seem like you're going to be able to get now. That feels like the ceiling of him. And again, keep in mind, Hassan Kim, much more, you know, hype prospect came over and he really struggled in year one in the big leagues. Jean-Hul-Lee didn't really get a shot. We don't really know how his first year would have gone. He got hurt too early.

Starting point is 00:25:04 But yeah, it's not a layup anymore. The KBO is a step down from the MPB. And, you know, obviously the MPB is a step down from the majors. But. So, yeah, it's a little bit tough for me because, like I said, I can only watch, you know, highlights that are posted. I don't get to watch KBO games to kind of get a feel for all that. But basically what I know from the numbers, he makes a lot of contact.

Starting point is 00:25:29 He draws a fair amount of walks. But most of his on-base skill comes from his ability to make contact, put the ball and play and run. And so if that takes a hit, then his on-base takes a hit. We know the power's not going to play up. it's not going to get better at the big league. So it's a risk. So I'm at four or five million bucks.

Starting point is 00:25:47 And then you give him a shot to be the everyday second baseman. Fine. I think you're going to do that. Then you have to have like an answer at third base or you have to even have that big bat outfielder. You know, you can't be the best position player you bring in this winter. I would probably put him in the same group as I put Ryan Bliss and Austin Shetton. And, you know, any other, like, fringe major leaguer on the Marist 40-man roster who might factor in at, you know, third or second or first base for them this year. Like, I'm not looking at Heist on Kim and some higher tier than that right now.

Starting point is 00:26:28 Maybe I should. Maybe I'm wrong on that. But with what I know about the guy and what I know about players that have come from the KBO over to Major League Baseball, particularly in their first year. I don't look at him as like, oh, yeah, there we go. We got our second baseman. Yeah, I haven't heard anybody who's like watched Kim like consistently who thinks that he'll hit the ground running at the major league level. Like I just don't think he's that type of prospect. And that's what he is.

Starting point is 00:27:02 He's a prospect that you have to pay major league money to. It is interesting that, you know, the three teams that are linked to him right now, they're all on the West Coast. But the Mariners are probably the only team that can say to Kim, like, you want to play every day? Like, here you go. Second base is yours. You're going to get the opportunity to play every day at second base. San Diego, not really.

Starting point is 00:27:28 I think it was mentioned in the article that San Diego's interest in him was more as a utility player. And then the Angels, who knows with the Angels. So yeah, we'll see. I think for me, like, if I could get him on like a three or four year deal worth about five million AAB, maybe I can even backload that a little bit. So his hit in year one is only two million bucks. And then we can kind of see what he is as a big leaguer over the next year or two. I think that's interesting.

Starting point is 00:27:56 You start talking, you know, four and 24, four and 30. Like, no, I don't think that makes a lot of sense for the Mariners based on where they sit right now. Yeah. Yeah. And that also kind of goes back to the conversation that we just had. Like, how much money do they really have? How desperate are they willing to get? Which isn't really something that we talked about. But I mean, 12 plus million and guaranteed money to Carlos Santana, a 39-year-old first basement, that seems kind of desperate to me.

Starting point is 00:28:27 Basically, guaranteed two years. And if they think Kim is the only thing they can do at second basis off season, how desperate are they willing to get? Right. So, you know, when we talked about this, it's one of those things where it's like, you know, you want to be aggressive, but you can't be reckless. And I think Kim is one of those players where you have the potential for the Mariners to get reckless rather than aggressive. And Kim is not the guy to get reckless on because, like you said, honestly, if you're better, like who's going to be a better player in 2025, Dylan Moore or Highson Kim, Dylan Moore is.

Starting point is 00:29:08 is where the smart money would go. Yeah. So we'll see. I mean, Kim offensively does profile well for the philosophy. The Marriss have kind of laid out under, you know, Edgar and now Kevin Siteser and Bobby Maggayanas.

Starting point is 00:29:26 You know, it's a contact approach staying up the middle. That's what Kim does bring to the table or has brought to the table in the KBO. So he does fit in that regard. It's no surprise why the Marys would have interest in him and in a profile like Isson Kim's. But yeah, it's a pretty big risk, especially if he's going to be one of the significant additions of your off season. If not, I mean, maybe at this point, the most significant addition you make this off season.

Starting point is 00:29:55 So yeah. So we'll have an answer on that pretty quick here, I would think, probably within the next week. Because, again, I believe his deadline to sign with the team is January 3rd. so we'll see all right so that's going to do it for our show we'll be back tomorrow for fan fiction friday we'll have the tweet out so you can submit your trades on our twitter so head on over there if you have a trade idea to give us uh thank you so much for joining us here on the locked on merris podcast for colby pat note i'm tiding gzalus be sure give us a follow on on twitter at l o underscore merrers you can follow me at taiting gzalus and colby at cpat 11 that's cpat 1 1 we're also on blue sky

Starting point is 00:30:35 You can follow me at TDG, Colby at MLB Colby, and the show at Lockdown Marrors. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day, and we'll see you next time. Peace.

Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Have the Mariners Misjudged the Market and Can They Adapt?

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