Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Have the Vibes Ever Been Better During the Seattle Mariners' Playoff Drought?
Episode Date: July 20, 2022Have the vibes ever been better during the Seattle Mariners' 20-year playoff drought than they are right now? Hosts Ty Dane Gonzalez and Colby Patnode discuss, plus react to a Juan Soto trade proposal... from a former MLB general manager and list their favorite Day 3 picks from the Mariners' draft class.Be sure to follow or subscribe to Locked On Mariners wherever you prefer your podcasts! For questions and other inquiries, email: lockedonmariners@gmail.comStay up to date with all things Mariners at Inside the Mariners - a FanNation website covering the Seattle Mariners on the Sports Illustrated network.Follow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @danegnzlz | @CPat11 | @InsideMarinersFor more of Ty and Colby, check out their Patreon: patreon.com/controlthezone/Blue NileMake your moment sparkle with jewelry from Bluenile.com, and LOCKED ON SPORTS listeners get $50 off purchases of $500 or more using code LOCKEDON.BetOnlineBetOnline.net has you covered this season with more props, odds and lines than ever before. BetOnline – Where The Game Starts! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
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On today's episode of Locked on Mariners, have the vibes ever been better for the Mariners during their 20 year playoff drought than they are right now?
All that more coming right up.
Colby, hit it.
You are Locked on Mariners.
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Yo, what's up, everyone?
Welcome to the Lockdown Mariners podcast.
It is Wednesday, July 20th, 2020.
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So we are going to be talking about day three of the draft.
We're going to tell you our favorite prospects the Mariners selected yesterday during the final day of the 2022 MLB draft.
We're also going to look at a trade proposal that Jim Bowden, former general manager, now athletic writer, has written about in regards to the Mariners and won Soto.
but first, with everything that has been going on with the Mariners,
the 14 game win streak,
Julio cementing himself as a superstar,
putting him and the Mariners on the map at the home run derby.
Have the vibes ever been better than they are right now
during the 20-year playoff drought?
This is something that I'm very interested in hearing your thoughts,
Colby, and our listener's thoughts as well.
So if you're watching on YouTube,
leave a comment down below telling us,
what you think or send us an email at
Lockdown Mariners at jeml.com but again
Colby have the vibes ever been better
during this playoff drought than they are
right now for the Mariners?
It'd be hard to say
yes
it's interesting you know we come on
the air here
after some frustrating moments
and you look on Twitter and it appears
that they've already sold out Friday's game
they've sold out or they're getting
near a sellout on Saturday
and I think they're at 32,000 tickets
sold for Sunday. This is a weekend series, you know, in the summer against the Astros. This isn't
the Yankees. This isn't the Red Sox. You know, it's not the Blue Jays. This is not a series that
would traditionally sell out. You know, it'd probably be a pretty good crowd, but sellouts
for the last, I don't know, decade have pretty much been an opening day thing. And then maybe
if the team gets to a game 162, with,
something to play for then you might have a sellout and even then there's always some empty seats so
yeah it'd be hard to say that there's been a time where you know the mariners have um captured more
attention from the city of seattle than they are right now and it's amazing what a 14 game winning streak
will do uh who knew you win baseball games and and people show up to your ballpark it's crazy uh
turns out that they care more about that than you know the 10,000 dollar luxury boxes that they're
unveiling for the All-Star game next year.
Shocking, I know.
So I think the thing that we do need to acknowledge here is like in 2002, they were,
they won 93 games.
In 2003, they won 93 games as well.
There have been other moments here later on in the drought where, you know,
things have looked like this was going to end.
You know, they were 58 and 35 at one point in 2018.
They obviously got to the final day of the season and postseason contention in 2014.
They were basically in that same spot in 2016.
Last year, of course, they more or less controlled their own destiny,
hadn't into the final series of the year.
So I think some of you listening that are going to be commenting,
we'll maybe mention some of those moments.
But I think just right now the hope that this team has instilled the incredible nature
and the unlikely nature as well of their 14 game win streak.
and Julio doing what he's been able to do
becoming a superstar.
The Mariners haven't had a superstar like Julio since Griffey.
So I think all of these things combined
just makes the Mariners latest run
all the more impressive and all the more exciting,
especially when you think about what the potential is for the future,
the potential of being able to add to this roster,
both via players returning from injury
and on the trade market as well.
There are a lot of, you know, exciting things happening around this team that are not just about this win streak and Julio.
There's just there's so much potential here.
There's so much to be inspired by, excited by.
And I just, I think this might be the most exciting time to be a Mariners fan over the last 20 years, honestly, because it's, it's also not just about this year too, right?
It's the fact that like, yeah, we have a superstar now in Julio Rodriguez, who's already incredible at 21.
years old. By the way, he's going to get better.
And we get to watch this guy for
at least the next six, seven
years, hopefully a lot more
than that. I'm going to say that
we are probably going to see Julio in Seattle
for a longer time than that.
But I mean, there's just
everywhere you look.
Everywhere you look, there's something to be
really, really thrilled
about with this team. And so, yeah,
I think the vibes haven't been any better.
It's, you know,
those past teams, they had this
older core and it was established and so there really wasn't much growing to do with that group.
This group is young.
They're controllable.
And we're not really sure what their what their ceilings are.
A lot of them.
They're also, you know, very charismatic.
There's a lot of, there's a lot of personality on this team.
And there are a lot of the younger players who kind of aren't afraid to speak their mind about, you know, certain topics that.
most baseball teams they don't they say oh i'm not going to talk about that i mean and you know these
guys are willing to do that so um you know i i think that there's something about
this team that is almost like i don't know what the right word it's like
they're the cool kids whereas in the other you know the last few times the vibes were
anywhere near this you're just like yeah that's you know there's a couple of seniors on that team
we know they're going to graduate soon.
And so we don't get it this time.
Oh, we're screwed.
And this one feels much more like we're, you know, ascending instead of just, you know,
trying desperately to break a streak with, you know, frankly, a group of geriatrics
and who are on their last leg.
So it certainly feels like this is young.
It's, you know, it's new.
It's cool.
It's hip.
And it's fun to be a Mariners fan.
And that's something that,
hasn't been true really for, you know, 15 years with a few exceptions here and there.
Yeah, because, I mean, if you look at some of their other teams over this 20-year drought,
especially the teams that were competing in 2014, 2016, and 2018,
there was just a lot of pressure with those teams to, you know,
get through the championship window, basically.
And, you know, I never thought that they actually had a chance at a World Series.
during that time, you know, because they just, they didn't have the pieces or the money available
to finish that thing off.
They were potentially a playoff caliber team, but they just, they were never able to get there.
And there was just so much pressure really placed on that group to just break the drought, you know,
and it kind of felt like that was the angle for a lot of folks, too, with that team because we,
we knew what the ceiling was, right?
Again, like I said, I didn't think that they ever had a shot at winning a World Series with that group.
and with the little resources that they had at their disposal.
And now it's like the sky's the limit for this group, right?
This is everything that we have spent years, you and I, Colby, talking about, you know,
on various podcasts, on this show, et cetera.
And so knowing that the window isn't close to closing, it's just now opening.
And it's going to be wide open, I think, at a certain point.
I think it's going to be wide, wide, wide open here in a short matter of time, honestly, because of guys like Julio Rodriguez, because of guys like Logan Gilbert, because of guys like Cal Raleigh.
You know, this team is on a path to be in a dominant, dominant franchise for years to come.
And so I think that paired with just what's going on right now, right at this moment.
There's just so much to be excited about.
So much to be excited about.
I am thrilled.
It's just,
it's the best time to be a Mariners fan,
I think,
really.
I really do because there's just,
anything is possible right now.
I mean,
hell,
even though that you and I
don't think that there's a chance
that they could get Juan Soto,
the fact that we can even have that conversation,
we couldn't have,
we couldn't realistically have that conversation back in 2016,
2018,
et cetera.
The Mariners could never even enter the conversation
for a player of so,
so does caliber.
Now they can.
Should they do that?
Should they trade for him?
Who knows,
right?
You know,
I don't think so.
just give them what the cost is.
But the fact that we can even talk about that,
and that sounds just like complete idiots,
sound like we're just completely reaching, dreaming, et cetera.
Like, that's amazing.
And the Mariners are already pretty good as well.
And so the fact that they can add players like that get even better.
I mean, that's just, I mean, what else could you want?
What else could you want right now?
So speaking of Soto,
Jim Bowden of the Athletic,
also former general manager of the Reds,
has thrown his hat into the ring here on the Soto discussion
and has proposed a trade between the Mariners and the nationals.
We'll be talking about that reacting to it in just a moment.
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So you guys know what our thoughts are on the Juan Soto situation with the Mariners particularly.
But Jim Modin today released an article on the athletic talking about 10 possible trades to land Juan Soto.
and he made one for the Mariners,
which would include either Emerson Hancock or George Kirby,
then Jared Kelnick, Kyle Lewis, and Noel V. Marte.
And I tweeted right after that happened, right after I saw it,
that there is absolutely no way that you can get Juan Soto for that kind of package.
And that made people mad.
But I just, I don't see it.
I don't see a world in which you can get Juan Soto, one of the best players in the world,
for a pretty good pitching prospect in Emerson Hancock or a really good pitcher in, you know,
and George Kirby, really good young pitcher in George Kirby,
Noelvie Marte, who is the Mariners best prospect, I would say.
Maybe it's Edwin Royal at this point, but one of the Mariners' best prospects in Noel
V. Marte, who has had a down year, however.
and then Jared Kelnick, who has been unable to perform at the major league level,
and Kyle Lewis, who has unfortunately been injured countless times since becoming a professional baseball player.
I just don't know how the nationals would justify that to themselves for one of the best players in the world who's still under club control for the next three years.
I just, I don't get that.
Are you as puzzled by that as I am, Colby?
Not really because it's Jim Bowden and Jim Bowden's not good at his job.
He wasn't good as a GM either, but he's not particularly good at this because what you just described is a package of damaged goods for a premier talent.
I mean, Hancock has had shoulder issues.
Lewis hasn't stayed healthy.
Kelnick hasn't succeeded in the majors outside of one three-week stretch.
You know, and they're not training Kirby.
We know that.
Marte is having a down year.
He has picked it up lately, and I do think Marte is still a very good prospect, but he's not an elite prospect.
He's not Julio.
He's a good prospect.
He's a top 50-ish guy.
Cool.
So you have a top 50 guy, a fringy top 100 guy with some shoulder issues and is already on his, you know, plate.
You have a former top 10 prospect who just is so stiff and unathletic at the plate that there's questions whether or not he can hit at all.
And then a guy who's had multiple knee surgeries and hasn't played more than what 60 games in any season.
Like, sure, yeah, if you can do that, absolutely do it.
If you can get Juan Soto for those four guys, the Mariners would have already done that.
But you can't.
It's dumb.
It's not Emerson Hancock or George Kirby because that implies they're roughly the same value.
They're not.
George Kirby is significantly more valuable in any trade package than Emerson Hancock.
So I would give Bowden's trade idea, like a D plus.
I've seen better on, you know, fan fiction Fridays here.
And it's not surprising when you consider how bad Jim Bowden was as an actual general manager
that he can't seem to comprehend that Juan Soto is not getting traded for, you know,
for damaged players, not for two and a half years.
I mean, that may be next trade deadline, maybe if Noelvie has a pretty decent year.
and Hancock proves he can stay healthy, maybe, but not for two and a half years.
Like, that's ridiculous.
It's dumb.
You know, I know Mariners fans are excited about it, but when is the last time Bowden was right about anything Mariners-related?
The guy guesses all the time and he's wrong all the time.
I don't know how many times you put Marcel Ozuna on this team, but I think it was at least three times saying that it was basically a done deal.
And last I checked, Marcelo Zuna has never played for the Seattle Mariners.
So I wouldn't take it too seriously.
It's a fun package, but I think there's a lot of people out there like,
oh, he's going to be less expensive than you think.
And I think those people are dumb, to be frank, or they're being dumb.
Because the idea that Juan Soto, a 23-year-old with two and a half years of club control left,
who is probably the best pure hitter in Major League Baseball, could be had for less than, you know,
three top 10 prospects and a couple of, you know, established major leaguers.
It's a joke.
It's just, it's a straight up joke.
So everybody wants to think that their farm system can get it done.
Everybody, remember, everybody overvalues their own prospects.
That's why I know, like, Noel V. Marte.
Oh, Noel V. Marte would be a great headliner.
Woody?
Or do you just think no.
Another thing that we need to keep in mind here, too, is beauty is in the eye of the beholder.
Yeah.
We don't know if the nationals like Noel V. Marte.
We don't know if they like Emerson,
Hancock. We don't know if they like George Kirby. And that also works both ways, though,
and that maybe they really like Noel V. Marte. Maybe they really like Emerson Hancock. Maybe they
really, really, really like Jared Kalnick and think that they can fix him. You know, that's also
possible here too. But I think if we're just looking at this at face value, knowing what we know,
which is very, very, very, very little because none of us are in the Mariners front office or the
nationals front office, it just doesn't make any sense. It doesn't make it.
sense. Could this deal happen? Sure. Maybe the Nationals are stupid.
Right? If the Nationals took this deal without Kirby in it, I would advise people to go check
their village because one of you is missing their idiot. That's how I would describe it.
And by the way, it completely ignores the report that's out there that the Nats also want to
move Patrick Corbyn's contract in this deal. I'm out. All right. So does this deal make more sense of
Corbin is involved?
Bowden's deal?
Maybe.
Yeah, maybe.
It certainly makes more sense, but I still don't think it's enough.
And by the way, if I'm the Mariners, I have no interest in Patrick Corbyn, even if it does
get me Juan Soto at a discount.
Patrick Corbyn's bad.
And I got to pay that guy for three more years.
I got to pay.
We're talking about adding $40 million of payroll just this year alone.
And next year, Soto's probably going to make $25 million.
And the year after that, he's probably going to make $35 million before he goes away forever.
and I still have to pay Corbyn $25 million a year on top of that.
For what, a reliever?
No, I'm not doing that.
I'm not interested in that.
So if Bowden had put Corbyn in this deal, then, yeah, like, okay, well, I think it's still a little light, but it's certainly more palatable.
It's certainly more realistic than, oh, no, we don't even have to take on the bad contract and we can just give you these four damaged players that, you know, might be expendable to us anyways.
Great.
Yeah, like, absolutely you do that.
but like I said,
if the nationals are actually interested in a deal like that,
check around your village
because there's an idiot that's missing.
So the other conversation here
that's kind of going on with this deal is like,
well, what other team is going to top that offer?
I mean, you know,
because apparently the Yankees are not going to trade Volpe.
So at that point, I think they're out.
If they're not going to trade Volpe, they're out.
But there's still,
the Dodgers, there's still the Cardinals,
there's still potentially the Padres
because they have McKenzie Gore,
C.J. Abrams, Robert Hassel.
Yeah.
But, I mean, like, there's a lot of teams
that have a clearer path here
to the World Series and the Mariners do.
That can get more aggressive. That can justify
getting more aggressive than the Mariners can right now.
And I just...
I mean, if you're the Dodgers, you could legitimately
be offering Gavin Lucks
and Julio Urius
and not really feel it.
You know what I mean?
Like, because you still have Gonslyn.
You still have.
They could even trade Gonslin, right?
Yeah.
I mean, they, the Dodgers could absolutely.
If the Dodgers want Juan Soto, they can, they can have them.
Like, they can literally out.
Maybe even if the nationals.
Yeah, but it's definitely possible.
I mean, if I were the nationals, I'd take a chance on that.
I mean, he'd have to be like the fourth best piece in the trade.
But like, if they come to me and they're like, hey, we'll give you Dustin May, Gavin
Lux, Lucks, Cody Bellinger, and our top two prospects.
like you're saying no to that
yeah it's like significantly better than this
than the steel that voted's proposed
absolutely and it's like
the the Dodgers again can justify that
because they have a very clear path
of the World Series whereas the Mariners don't
the Mariners are right now like their main focus
is just breaking the drought
of course we want them to focus on bigger and better things
than just breaking the drought we want them to get
into the postseason and actually do some damage
and Juan Soto would certainly help with that
but it's also you know again this goes back to
yesterday's conversation
that if you're going to acquire
one Soto, realistically,
it's probably going to have to include
either George Kirby or Logan Gilbert
plus more stuff on top of that.
And whatever you have to give
in addition to Gilbert or Kirby
is going to limit your ability
to acquire a proper replacement
for either one of those guys.
You're still going to have a hold effect.
And also, if it's Gilbert that gets traded,
you're going to have to find two starting pitchers.
because George Kirby's got the innings cap.
And so now you've got to go find two starting pitchers in the middle of a postseason push.
And you've just traded four or five of your best assets.
Exactly.
Exactly.
It's over.
And you did that to add a guy at a position that isn't of great need for you right now.
Yes, one so to unequivocally makes the Mariners better.
But like it.
How much?
How much so?
Like how much does the loss of Logan Gilbert or George Kirby or.
and the assets that you gave up hurt.
Like how much is something that we all need to take into consideration here
when we're talking about Wonsoto.
I honestly think if they traded like Gilbert or Kirby in a WAN Soto trade,
I actually think their playoff odds would go down, to be honest with you.
Maybe not statistically, but like pitching is so important to this team
because they don't have any depth there already.
The bullpen has, you know, been very good,
but it's because it hasn't had to have been used as much over the last month.
So I don't think their odds actually go all that high, all that much higher after acquiring Soto.
And what they've done is they've shortened their window and they've made it harder to acquire players in the future.
And while, yes, they can, you know, spend money this off season.
They're eventually going to run out of money.
And when I say run out, I mean, John Stanton's going to say no more money.
That's what I mean when I say run out.
And so if you're throwing on, you know, $50 million,
of additional payroll in the middle of this year.
He said, okay, well, now we need to go replace Logan Gilbert.
Okay, what's a pit, what's a caliber?
What's a picture of the caliber of Logan Gilbert costs on free agent market?
$25 million a year, at least.
You're done.
You're, your, Stan's tapping out.
Like, and it'd be nice that we thought Stan would say, oh, yeah, sure, do that
and then do a couple other things, but you trust John Stan to do that because I don't.
So we'll see how it goes.
But, yeah, I think, I think Bowden's trade proposal is,
a joke, quite frankly.
And, but if you can get that done and it's Hancock instead of Kirby, do it.
I don't care.
I mean, I'd do that in a heartbeat.
Oh, yeah, absolutely.
If they actually, if they would actually entertain that slash accept that, you're doing that in a heartbeat, no questions to ask.
Absolutely.
Absolutely.
I'm signing off on that.
I'm doing dances.
That's a 90-grade trade.
That breaks the scale for the Mariners.
Like, honestly, that's an incredible, incredible deal if they are able to do that.
I just don't think that's possible.
I really don't think that's in the realm of possibility.
here. Wouldn't you rather have Luis Castillo and like just based on what you think it'll cost,
would you rather trade all of that for Juan Soda, or would you rather have like Luis Castillo,
Brandon Drury, and like Ian Hap?
I'd rather have the three players, to be honest with you.
So we'll see.
But yeah, it certainly is generating a lot of buzz on the, uh, the Mariners Twitter sphere.
Yeah, absolutely.
All right.
So we are going to be talking about our day three favorite picks.
for the Mariners in just a moment.
But real quick, a reminder.
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resource for all your sports wagering information from live in game betting scores and podcasts they have you covered head to bet online today or use your mobile device to learn more about the trends and action bet online is where the game starts so the 22 mlb draft officially wrapped up yesterday afternoon the mariners added 20 new prospects in total over the course of the three day event and we've covered their first 10 picks but now we're
going to look at their other 10 picks.
And because we don't have a ton of time, we're only going to limit this down to our
favorite pick each.
So, Colby, start with you.
Who is your favorite pick from the Mariners' crop of day three draftees?
Yeah, I'm a pretty big fan of the lefty.
They snagged in the 18th round from UNC, Brandon Schaefer.
It's a funky arm angle.
It's kind of a true sidearm from a lefty.
It's 89 to 91 with the fastball, occasionally touches 92.
sweeping slider with a really high spin rate.
Fastball also has some pretty good spin rates and a changeup with really good fade and tumble.
There's a possibility here that he's a starter.
I think a lot of people will see the arm angle and they'll say, well,
reliever, lefty type of guy.
And it's totally possible.
But if the Mariners can get him 93, 94, 95,
I think he's got a chance to start even with the arm angle.
He throws enough strikes.
Some things he has to clean up, but he does throw enough strikes.
and the stuff is pretty good and the slider is his outpitch certainly so uh you know i watch him um
you know pitch against you know in a great conference the acc is a great conference uh for college baseball
uh he's pretty good um i think like if you're looking for like a comp i know i know i use this
yesterday but i'll use it again here ryan yarborough i think makes a lot of sense he's a guy who
kind of throws from a different arm angle uh you know kind of has different stuff and just kind of makes
at work. I think if you can put them in the bullpen and you can get them up to 96, 97,
which is asking a lot, you know, to go from 90 to 97. But if you can do that, there's a little
Josh Hater in there. Probably not going to be as good. But there's, it's a very similar type of arm
slot and pitch mix. And then one other name I throw out there as kind of a fun comp.
How about Nestor Cortez of the New York Yankees?
nasty nester
Can
can Brandon Schaefer
grow out an elite mustache though?
I don't know that
I don't know
There's only one
Nestor Cortez so
That's true
That's true
We'll see but I think
Schaefer's going to end up
In my top 30
I like the arm that much
All right
So my favorite was their 12th round pick
Troy Taylor out of UC Irvine
Now Troy Taylor
Was their 20th round selection
last year. He was the only guy that they drafted last year who did not sign the Mariners are pretty
good about picking guys who they feel confident they're coming to sign. But yeah, they weren't able
to get that done. And usually it's pretty rare for teams that have already drafted a player to
draft him again, especially the very next season. Clearly they really like Troy Taylor. And there's
a lot of reasons to understand why as well. Because I mean, we're talking about a breaking ball that
is plus. It's a
slurve, I guess we'll call it.
Some consider it to just be a
true slider, but it's
kind of got a little bit of a curve
to it as well. And it's a devastating
pitch. It's been a fantastic pitch for him. That has only
gotten better over the past year since
they first drafted him. On top of that,
he's got a low to mid 90s fastball
that has great armside run.
There's a lot that he can do with that pitch. And it's
Again, just like the slurve, it's gotten a lot better over the last year.
There's also a change up in there that is kind of lagging behind, but I'm sure the Mariners can clean that up.
A lot of people think because he only has two pitches right now, he's probably going to end up being a reliever.
That's, of course, just a lazy, lazy thing that we say about every pitcher that we're unsure about that we can't project for at all.
But I think that there's a legitimate chance that he can start.
I think there's a legitimate chance that he could be an absolute devastating,
arm to fairly quickly rise through this system as well, and one that has a lot of the tools
that the Mariners just love, love, love, love to work with.
I think this is a really exciting profile for the Mariners pitching development, which we know
is just, it's one of the best in baseball.
It's revered by folks in the league as one of the best in baseball and developing and
elevating ceilings for their pitching prospects.
And I think, you know, there's definitely something.
and to them drafting a guy, not once, but twice in a matter of two years.
It's clear that they really like that profile.
I'm very excited to see what they do with Troy Taylor.
Yep.
So that's going to do it for our show.
Thank you so much for joining us here on the Lockdown Mariners podcast for Colby Pat
Note.
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