Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Hopefully the Mariners Won't Pitch to Mike Trout This TIme

Episode Date: June 24, 2022

The Mariners are heading down to Anaheim for a three-game set with the Angels. Hosts Ty Dane Gonzalez and Colby Patnode preview the series, talk some draft prospects and explain why Robbie Ray's start against the A's was noteworthy.Be sure to follow or subscribe to Locked On Mariners wherever you prefer your podcasts! For questions and other inquiries, email: [e-mail] the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @danegnzlz | @CPat11 | @InsideMarinersFor more of Ty and Colby, check out their Patreon: patreon.com/controlthezone/Blue NileMake your moment sparkle with jewelry from Bluenile.com, and LOCKED ON SPORTS listeners get $50 off purchases of $500 or more using code LOCKEDON.BetOnlineBetOnline.net has you covered this season with more props, odds and lines than ever before. BetOnline – Where The Game Starts!LinkedInLinkedIn Jobs helps you find the candidates you want to talk to, faster. Did you know every week, nearly 40 million job seekers visit LinkedIn? Post your job for free at LinkedIn.com/LOCKEDONMLB. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The Mariners are off to Anaheim as we await news on Ty Francis injury. We'll get you set for the series, talk some draft and more on today's episode of Locked on Mariners. Colby, hit it. You are Locked on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day. What's up, everyone? Welcome to the Locked on Mariner's podcast.

It is Friday, June 24th, 2020, and thank you so much for making us your first listen of the day. We are free and available on all platforms. I am your host, Tadie Gonzalez. joined as always by my co-coast. Colby Patnode. We cover the Mariners over at Inside the Mariners.com for Fan Nation over on the Sports Illustrated Network. Be sure to follow the show on Twitter at L-O-1-U-N-Score Mariner's. Follow Inside the Mariners. You can follow me at Dane Gonzalez, and E, G-N-Z-L-Z and Colby at C-Pat-E-T-E-L-E-N-E-T-L-E-T-E-L-E-T-E-L-E-T-E-ROW. Be sure to

also check out our Patreon at Patreon.com, we post two additional podcasts on there every single week. And if this is your first time joining us here on the Lockdown I'm airers podcast. Welcome to the show. If you like what you hear, give us a follow or subscribe wherever you're listening to this. And if you're watching us on YouTube, hit the subscribe button, turn on the notification bell and give this video a thumbs up. We greatly appreciate it. So as I mentioned in the cold open, we're going to be talking about the Angels Mariners series, which is going to get set underway tonight. We're also going to be talking a little bit more about the draft because that is fast approaching. We're about three weeks out from the draft now.

But first, we're going to talk a little bit about Robbie Ray. And real quick, though, we might end up talking about Thai France a little bit here because there's a possibility that we might get more clarification on what's going on with his arm injury. So that might happen during the show. Might not happen. We'll see. But let's get into Robbie Ray here because he had a pretty interesting start yesterday in Oakland. He, of course, went six innings, gave up one and run, struck out six, walked two. And interestingly enough,

you know we've been talking about how much he's been using this two-seem fastball this sinker for the last few starts and how well it's worked for him i just wrote an article on inside the mariners about how well it's worked for him but yesterday he went slider-heavy he threw 38 pitches uh and then through the four-seem fastball the second most uh with 23 pitches then the sinker the two-seam fastball came in at 21 pitches but then at the bottom here on the player breakdowns of uh baseball savon he threw a curveball 12 times. Now, Colby, if I'm not mistaking, he really hasn't thrown that pitch since he was with the Diamondbacks all the way back. This is going back to like 2015, 2016, 2016, 2017 when he was throwing

this pitch with any sort of regularity. And now it's kind of cropped up just as this two-seam fastball is kind of cropped up out of nowhere. And June, do you think this is actually something that he's trying to implement? Is this, you know, more just he, he's kind of toying around with stuff knowing that he's going up against a bad offense what do you

think is going on here with this curveball i think it's just about kind of um no stat padding is the right the right terminology here but i think it's just about showing something on to scouts and the on tape so to speak uh to put in the back of hitters minds um the curveball he's thrown some good ones this year he just doesn't throw it often and some of them aren't very good so it's a pitch that maybe can help him steal a strike in an O-O-count or, you know, 2-0, you can flip it in there and steal a strike when they're sitting fastball. So it's just another pitch to put in the back of the mind of the hitters, but unless he's going to start throwing it, you know, for multiple starts here,

if you're an offense going up against Robbie Ray, you should just disregard the pitch until he proves that he's willing to do it and throw it over and over and throw it for strikes. So it's, I think it's just more of like, hey, I'm just going to flip this up here. It's a good day to work on some stuff. It's, you know, a good way to try and steal a strike here and there. Change the eye levels a little bit. You know, the fastball and slider are tunneled pretty well. The curveball is going to be a little bit different.

So I think it's just, I think it's just a pitch that he used to keep guys off of the, off of the fastballs a little bit yesterday. I think it's just a tempo changer more or less. Yeah, it was interesting to see how yesterday he was mostly four seam slider, his bread and butter. He still threw the two seam plenty that it was noticeable. But he really went back to the four to the four seam slider after his last two starts where he was pretty two seam heavy. So, you know, it's an interesting, it's an interesting like blip in the radar. but until we see anything with more regularity,

I'm going to go ahead and say that it's just that. It's a blip in the radar. So he generated six swings with it. There was one whiff and then four called strike. So it was a pretty effective pitch for him. And like you said, we'll see if it's actually something that's going to be, become a more featured part of his repertoire.

But for now, you know, it is kind of interesting that he didn't throw the sinker, the two-seem fastball as much in this game, which because, you know, since June 6th, when he first introduced the pitch, when he reintroduced the pitch, that's been his most used pitch up to this point, 141 pitches of the sinker

to 126 sliders and 101 four-seem fastballs. Do you think that's just kind of a match-up thing more than anything? Um, yes. It's tough because Oakland is such a bad offense. Yeah. And even the Anaheim start, it was basically Mike Trout and a bunch of scrubs. So yeah, it's a little tough to know, you know, how he's going to go in there and attack on a day, on a game by game basis. But maybe that's the actual design, the actual intent of Robbie Ray is, you know, for the last three, four, five years, he's basically been fastball slider with very little to offer. And now he's, he's throwing in the two seamer.

This last start, he starts flipping in some curveballs. Maybe it's just about every couple starts just kind of making a tweak, making a change here and there to be less predictable overall. But whatever it is, I mean, it's working. The guy allowed two earn runs in his last 20 innings pitched. Also 20 strikeouts and just four walks. He's been very, very good, his last, well, his last three times out. And, you know, Robbie, he had a, he had a stretch there where it was going bad, but, you know, for the most part, it appears that he's figured out how to work around the one bad anything that used to that, well, I don't want to say used to. It still might, but the one bad anything that kind of plagued him through most of the month of May, he's avoided that.

and really hasn't gotten all that close to it. You know, like I said, over his last 20, 20 innings pitch, he's allowed 10 hits and two walks. So there's not been a ton of traffic. Only one game with like an absurd strikeout amount too. So those are still kind of down a little bit overall for what we know, Robbie were ready to be. But the results have been very, very good the last three times out.

And, you know, if he's going to strike out a few less guys, but he's going to continue to go six, seven innings, give up one, two runs. It doesn't matter how many strikeouts he gets. Well, and most importantly there, no home runs allowed over his last 20 innings of work. Well, 23 innings of work if you want to go back to the Astro start as well. And then 50% groundball rate. That's really important because, I mean, the thing that a lot of people free at here is that when he was with Arizona, he was kind of a ground ball heavy pitcher.

He was above league average in ground ball rate from 2015 to 2017. And so keeping the ball on the ground is going to be especially important for him when you consider his home run struggles. And his home run struggles have lasted throughout his entire career. This isn't something new for him either. Like even going back to that same time period, the 2015 to 2017, he was above league average and home run fly ball rate. He was 13% in that.

So his home run to fall. ball rate right now would be the second lowest in his career at 13.7. So, yeah, it's, you know, when you throw hard and you don't have great command, you know, you're going to leave pitches in the middle of the plate

and you're going to strike guys out on pitches like that, but you're also going to give a part contact. And Roby Ray's always been a guy who gives up a lot of hard contact. And obviously hard contact in the air typically equals bad things. So if Robbie Ray's not going to get, you know, be God tiered.

on the strikeouts than he needs to get better at the ground ball rate and he is so all right well we're going to be looking at the draft again that's coming up in about three weeks here so we're we're going to ramp up our coverage of that a little bit more here on the on the lockdown mariners podcast but first a reminder this episode of lockdown mariners is brought to you by blue nile whether you're ready to pop the question or you're celebrating a milestone moment find jewelry as unique as them with the modern convenience of online shopping at blue nile.com blue nile has Simple online tools that let you choose the diamond shape, size, and clarity, as well as setting style. And Blue Nile's bench jewelers will then handcraft their perfect engagement ring, and each ring will be a one of a kind.

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You're listening to the Lockdown Mariners podcast. Thank you so much for making us your first listen of the day, just like you do here every day. Let's get into the draft. here because that's coming up pretty quick. Colby, you got a couple more names that you want to talk about. So the floor is yours. No, I'm good. Yeah, you know, we focused a lot recently on on the bats in this class. And there's a reason for that. It's not a particularly good draft class, for college pitching, even some of the bigger names have some major issues.

like Kumar Rocker, who didn't sign last year because of a bad shoulder issue. And there's also some concerns surrounding Rocker about control and command and the slider and conditioning. There are some issues here with Kumar Rocker, and he's probably one of the six or seven best arms in this class. So, yeah, there are some legitimate reasons for concern, not only on Rocker, but on getting a college pitcher at this point of the draft that you're going to be terribly excited about. But, you know, the Mariners are, I mean, I think if they're good at anything, they're good at identifying college pitching and who they can help.

And there are a few guys out there that could help. I don't see them drafting a prep arm. It's the one place they've never gone before, at least not in the first round. It just seems unlikely. There's a lot of risk with a prep arm, and their ETAs usually. five, six years away, and with a few exceptions. So when it comes to college arms,

things get a little bit tricky. All these guys have a bit more leverage than they used to because they have an extra year of eligibility because of the COVID season. So you're going to have to pay these guys. It's very unlikely that you're going to get any of these guys for under slot. So if you're helping the Mariners try a little

slot bonus manipulation to maybe get a first round talent in the second round or something like that, I probably not going to be with these guys. So we'll start at the top. One of my personal favorites here, Gabriel Hughes of Gonzaga, 6 foot 4, 220, mid-90s fastball, really good slider, change up is average to fringe average. Throw strikes.

Doesn't have amazing command, but he will fill up the strike zone. It's probably 45, 50 great command on the, off speed, maybe 50 on the fastball. So he is a guy who he's going to go in the first round. He's going to go right around, well, because of the weak pitching class, it's possible he jumps into the top 15. I have a hard time seeing him jump into the top 10. But it's fastball slider change up, average control, maybe average command right around

there. But he's good arm, you know, like I said, he's 6'4, good size, good build, pretty good athlete 94 to 97 and the slider is the pitch that if it becomes plus he could be a you know number high in number three low in number two if the slider is average then he might only be a number four but it's it's a it's a profile that you like and it's one that the mariners are pretty familiar with um maybe my uh justin campbell we've talked about six foot seven fastball extension, very Logan Gilbert-esque, just in terms of size and value out of the fastball. And honestly, you know, strike throwing ability and where the off-speed stuff is, Campbell is a

very easy comp to draw to Logan Gilbert. And we know how well Logan Gilbert worked out or is working out right now for the Mariners. Two names that I'm pretty interested in. I don't know what round they're going to go. I think they're going to go late first. I think both of these guys should be available. Jonathan Cannon, he's a right-handed pitcher from Georgia. He was actually, you know, getting serious draft buzz last year. Didn't get drafted, kind of announced he was going back to school. But Cannon, here's why I'm kind of interested in Jonathan Cannon. Six foot six, only 213, so there is room to add some strength there. But he started throwing a cutter this year. And we know how the Mariners feel about cutters. And he's got a good one.

It's his best pitch. But he throws a ton of strikes. It's probably above average command plus control. Fastball in the low 90s, but he has touch 96. And it is heavy. It gets a lot of sync, gets a lot of run. So you kind of have this running fastball and then a cutter that moves in opposite directions. Both of them should be above average pitches.

and then the slider and the changeup are kind of, they're fringe average. But he's a big guy, throws a lot of strikes. There's extra velocity in the arm if you can get to it. And the cutter is already above average major league pitch. Very high floor, if that's what you're interested in. And then one more guy, since we found somebody who's kind of similar to Logan Gilbert, I was thinking maybe we could find somebody a little George Kirby-ish. Thomas Harrington from Campbell.

stuff-wise it's nothing electric it's a good fastball it's a good slider the change up probably is best pitch some will say it's the slider but they're both probably about 55s he throws a ton of strikes

he's 6 foot 2, 185 you can get bigger you can get stronger but it's still pretty good frame it's a very easy delivery he throws a ton of strikes there's really no concern that he's going to have issue finding the strike zone

he's he's draft eligible sophomore so you might have to go a little bit over slot to get him to sign but 2021 that's probably the ceiling for him in any draft year because you know kind of like george kirby i don't think a lot of people are going to look at this guy and say oh well he's a potential number number two but the stuff and the strike zone and the domination of the strike zone he's going to be very interesting to the mariners and i think there are some george kirby parallels So I would, I don't think Thomas Harrington is going to get drafted by the Mariners. I think that they probably, this is just a gut feeling,

I think they probably prefer Justin Campbell if they were going to go pitcher. But I would watch Harrington. He certainly has a lot more upside than I think people are realizing. Well, it seems like he fits in well with the philosophy too, right? So that would make a lot of sense. Is it possible that maybe he goes, before they pick or is what kind of range are we thinking on Harrington on Harrington yeah um you see this is the time of year where uh we're starting to hear like specific teams being linked

to specific players whereas in the past it's been more about like hey well this is probably about the range you should go in and this is a guy who X team has liked in the past um if if to me my my understanding of Thomas Harrington's value on draft boards is that he's probably going to go and keep in mind how big at the draft, how big, you know, the circle is. He's going to go somewhere in the top. If he is willing to sign, he's going to go somewhere in the top 40. It might be closer to the low to the low 30, so 31, 32, 33. But 21 is not a stretch for him at any, in any case.

And I think he might be. I have a hard time imagining he goes significantly above the Mariners. Like, I don't think he's a top 10 guy unless somebody really wants to try and save money, which is also, you know, a factor that you have to take into account here. But I don't think he's probably, I don't think so because he's a sophomore. Yeah. But it's definitely possible. And honestly, I, there's a, there's a chance.

an outside chance that maybe Harrington says, I'll only sign for $2.6 million, and that would take him to the bottom of the first round. Maybe Seattle says, we'll give you 2.8. And Harrington becomes their pick at 55, I want to say. Possible, not likely, not likely at all, but possible. I think it's more likely that Harrington would fall to the Mariners in the second

than it is that a team would take Harrington in the top 10, unless they're saving money. Gotcha. Yeah. The Major League draft is difficult that way. Major League Baseball draft because the bonus pools throw everything through a loop. Oh, it's an incredibly convoluted and complicated system that, you know, it's no wonder why a lot of casual fans just don't pay attention to it whatsoever.

It's hard. And that's why we're talking about it on here. So you kind of help pull that curtain away a little bit and just kind of simplify it for you guys as much as possible. possible, but it is a pretty convoluted system. We're going to be talking about the Mariners' upcoming series with the Angels in just a moment. But real quick, a reminder of this episode of Lockdown Mariners is brought to you by LinkedIn. As the sun comes out and small businesses are back in business, LinkedIn Jobs makes it easier to grow your team.

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Post your job for free. LinkedIn.com slash locked on MLB. That's LinkedIn.com slash locked on MLB to post your job for free. Terms and conditions apply. So the last time the Mariners faced this Angels team did not go great. It was not that long ago either. But now they're going down to Anaheim for the first time this season. And it's on a weekend.

And Colby, you know how I feel about Sunday afternoon games in Anaheim. So a lot of nervous energy here after the Mariners. Got a much needed sweep over the year. and they're probably, if I had to bet, they're going to be heading into the series without Thai France in any of these games, even if France is able to make it back relatively quick. So this is a tall task for the Mariners to say the least. They're also not going to have Robbie Ray in this series since he pitched yesterday. So not a lot of things.

Leaning Mariners heading into the series, though one good thing is they're not going to see showy O'Tani. as a pitcher. So that's good at least. But hey, you know, this is also a team that got shut out by the Angels. What was it? Two times, three times? I don't even know. It was a lot that they got shot out by this team last week and against guys that are not named Otani either. So yeah, we'll see how that goes for the Mariners. But, you know, now that they've gotten the sweep, they are guaranteed to be 500 exiting this road trip. And we talked about it on what was it Tuesday's episode

I believe that they you know history suggests that they needed to at least go 500 on this road trip to stay relevant in the the postseason race whatsoever to at least keep their postseason hopes alive in some fashion so now that we've established that

I mean how many games do you think they need to come out of the series with before they head back home they got to find a way to win it you know it's it's unfortunate that you're in that situation, but you are. And again, unless the team, like, at least the team is, they got the sweep, right?

Which, I mean, I don't know how, but they did. All right. Thank you very much, AJ Puck. But they got the sweep. So it's not a disaster if they win one of two. They go four and two. They stay on their, they're winning, percentage that they need.

But again, unless you believe that they're going to take, they're going to split the series with the Padres and then take three or four from the Blue Jays, you can't really afford to lose series. So you have to win this series unless, again, unless you have, unless you pull a 7, eight, nine game winning streak out of your back pocket, which let's be honest. Not happening. So they got to find a way to win two of these games, especially when you're not

facing Otani. You know, Sandoval was very good against you last time. You get to face them again. Lorenzen was not good. You have to take advantage of that. I guess the unfortunate thing is, is that Robbie Ray will not be starting in this series,

but Logan Gilbert is. So there you go. And let's make this easy on Scott's service. Can Mike Trout give to his team the lead or tie the game with one swing of a bat? Then do not pitch to him. How about that? Let's just keep it nice and say. simple. Would you

bury Bons him? Like intentionally walk him where the base is loaded. Yeah. Would you very bonds him at this point? Yeah, probably. Because here's, like, I know people are like, oh, well, would you rather face Joe Haye Otani? Yes. A million times yes. Yeah. Like, that's not even like, that's

the dumbest counter argument I've ever heard. Would you rather, you mean the guy who doesn't hit me at all? Like, yeah, that's the thing with O'Donnie. Yeah, that's the thing with Otani, right? Like, no denying that he's an incredible baseball player. One of the greatest baseball players in today's game. One of the greatest baseball players probably

to ever live. But against the Barroners, he's been just kind of mid. Honestly, like, he's just kind of average. Also, by the way, we need to stop pretending that Shohei Otani has been like, like, show he tony has been very good.

Don't get me wrong. But last year, remember the incredible first half he had at the play? And then he was kind of mediocre. the second and the same guy for a full year now and what's good it is not Mike Trout so your counter argument of the whole not yours but like would you rather face Otani than really yes yes 100% yes and I know Otani could do damage against me he will but the answer is yes it's it's not close like oh to Tony has just been unequivocally yes last 365 days yeah it's it's it's But over its last 365 day show.

Oatani sitting 255, 365, 365, 524. Then Mike Trout, it's not close. So if that's your counter argument when I complain this week and that's Mike Trout, just save it. Just because it doesn't carry any water with me. In the marriage, the Mariners will not have Otani Dominator, Justice Sheffield on the writer.

So. Yeah. We'll see. unfortunately. We'll see how that goes. But the answer is... Clearly, Ryan Baraki is the answer. He is the new Otani killer, clearly.

Because of handedness, by the way, Scott Service's favorite thing. Yes. 100%. Yes. The only thing that matters is that he can throw a baseball towards own plate left-handed. Doesn't matter how good it is. By the way, in case you guys are wondering,

and I know you are. Shohay Otani has played the Mariners second most, like he has the second most career games played in his career is against the Seattle Mariners, right? Yeah. The Mariners have held him to a 209, 315, 443 slash line. It's still pretty good.

It's really good. Like, think of the Mariners added a bat that was hitting 209, 315, 443. We'd all be like, all right. Yeah. Look at that. So I'm not saying it's, I'm not saying it's bad. But do I need to pull up Mike Trout's numbers against the Mariners to compare? Do I? I don't think I do.

So let's let's let's that man. That man has 33 home runs and 88 games at T-Mobile Park. 88 games. He's like 15th all time in that park's history. Like he's ahead of like prominent Mariners figures. I think of the, think of the games that Mike, Trout has missed. Last year he missed basically the entire season. I don't know if he played more than three games at T-Mobile and he's still like Mike Trout and a team mobile might be the

best player I've ever seen. I mean, shoot, dude. Like specifically and I mean, Trout might be in anyways, but yeah, it's just, it's different, man, at T-Mobile. It's different. But we'll see. You know, I obviously, you know what, like you don't need to walk Trout in the first inning. That's not what I'm saying, but there are obvious times, and we all saw it where it's like, hey, we're only down two to nothing. And we have two outs here in the seventh to Mike Trout's up. What do we do? Walk him.

I score three. You might. Not score four. So walk in. It's incredibly simple. With a button for punishment. Mike in his career against the Mariners in just over and 71 games. so just barely over a full season 50 home runs 130 rbi i 325 428 680

the dude is literally buried it hurts it hurts it hurts it hurts so it hurts don't pitch them after the fifth inning period let yeah i'll co-sign that i'll co-sign that that that's going to do it for our show. The internet is also letting us know that it is time to wrap up. We're experiencing some technical difficulties again, because of course. But thank you so much for joining us here on the Lockdown Mariners podcast. For Colby Pat node, I'm Taday Gonzalez. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at LO underscore Mariners.

You can follow inside the Mariners at Inside Mariners. You can follow me at Dane Gonzalez's D-A-N-ZL-E and Colby at C-E-E-E-E-L-Z-L-E and Colby at C-E-Pat-E-E-E-1. You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode. And thank you again for making us your first listen of the day, just like you do here every day. And with that, have yourself a beautiful baseball weekend, and we'll see you on Monday. Peace.