Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - How Alex Bregman's Decision Could Impact the Mariners

Episode Date: February 13, 2025

The Alex Bregman free agency saga has finally reached its conclusion, resulting in the two-time World Series champion signing a three-year, $120 million contract with the Red Sox. Ty and Colby discuss how Bregman's decision impact the Mariners, including how it changes the outlook of the Astros and if it could re-open the possibility of a Triston Casas trade.Check out our Patreon!Follow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @TyDaneGonzalez | @CPat11Follow the show on Bluesky: @lockedonmariners | @tdg | @mlbcolbySupport Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!Wonderful PistachiosLooking for a snack that’s both delicious and nutritious? Get snackin’ and get crackin’ with the snack that packs a protein punch. Visit WonderfulPistachios.com to learn more. FanDuelRight now, new FanDuel customers can get ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY DOLLARS in Bonus Bets if your first FIVE DOLLAR bet wins!Download the app or head to FANDUEL.COM to get started. Bet with FanDuel—Official Partner of the NBA.  FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The Alex Bregman Free Agency saga is finally over. Could his decision to sign with the Red Sox last night impact the Mariners? Let's talk about it. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Ahoy, Sailors.

It is Thursday, February 13th, 2025. This is Tiding Azales and Colby Patnaud for the Locked-on Marriss podcast. Part of the Locked-on podcast network of your team every day. Today's episode is all about how Alex Bregman's decision to sign with the Red Sox last night could impact the Mariners. We'll be talking a lot about some of the pieces Boston has, how they could fit in Seattle, all that good stuff. But before we do, shout out to our title sponsor today. FanDuel. Right now, new FanDuel customers can get $150 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins.

Download the app or head to FanDuel.com to get started. And if you want to hear from me and Colby even more and help support the show, check out our Patreon. All you have to do to check that out is click the link in the description of this episode. So it's finally over. Alex Bregman has finally signed with someone after months of rumors about the Astros, the Cubs, the Tigers, the Mets, and the Red Sox. That's that last team that I mentioned, Boston, who he winds up signing with on a three-year, $120 million deal with deferrals, opt-outs after 2025 and 2026. another what is likely going to be a one-year deal signed by a Scott Boris client, but that's not what we're here to talk about.

So what does this mean for the Mariners? A lot of stuff, potentially. At the very least, he's out of the ALS officially. Now, this was an expected outcome. It didn't seem like the Astros had a real shot at bringing Bregman back, at least for a while, particularly after they acquired ESOC Piraeus and Christian Walker. But then as Breggman's market continue to linger,

we started to hear about the Astros again, and then they put it in an offer, and then they ramped up that offer, but they just couldn't get that done, and they weren't able to bring Breggman back. So Breggman's out of the AOS. The Mariners don't have to deal with him as much as they've had to in the past.

So let's talk about the Astros first here, because we have a lot to go over. let's just start with the AL-West outlook and how Bregman's decision impacts that. Now that Bregman's not going to return to the Astros officially, seems like Houston's roster might be set. So again, they brought in Paredes, but they also traded a top 10 player in the game and Kyle Tucker to get him. They also got a really nice prospect in Cam Smith. They signed Christian Walker, who of course, a lot of Marers fans wanted and even seemed like the Marers were. interested in potentially going after if they were able to trade Luis Cascio.

That, of course, did not happen. They trade Ryan Presley. And this is coming off of a year in which they went on an insane run. They got off to a terrible start, went on an insane run, won the division. We all know the story about that, and the mayor is blown the 10-game lead. Don't have to go over that and rehash that. But then-brought it up again. Yeah, pretty much, yeah, yeah.

But then they lose in the wildcard rounds of the Tigers. So they're in kind of a weird spot right now. How do you feel about the Astros? I think it would be very hard to say that they are a better roster today than they were, you know, on opening day last year, on the last day of the season last year, like however you want to differentiate it. I think it'd be hard to say that they're better. I mean, Kyle Tucker is the five, 10 best players in all of baseball.

Bregman is a better player than Paredes. Now, you did get an upgrade, you know, in theory, with Walker over what you had at first base last year. But there are some red flags with Walker, namely how he's handled the fastball the last couple of years. You traded Presley. You didn't really replace him. Now, Presley wasn't incredible last year. But that's still a veteran reliever with a long track record. They've pretty dinged up in the rotation still.

So I think when I look at the Astros, I say, look, that's a team that's not as good as they haven't in the past. And obviously, you know, Altuva is another year older. The outfield, there are a lot of questions in that outfield right now. So I look at the Astros and I say, look, this is a flawed baseball team. This is the weakest their roster has been for, you know, probably a decade, give or take. And they're still going to be pretty good. Like, there's still a formidable roster who is going to compete for the American League West.

Absolutely, they are. So in a way, Seattle kind of closed. the gap with Houston without really doing anything, which again makes the off season that much more frustrating because they should be significantly better than the Astros now. You had the opportunity to really put your foot on the gas and you didn't. And that's really what's frustrating here because, yeah, all of these teams in the ALS, but specifically the top three teams, they're flawed. They're flawed in different ways, but they're all flawed and pretty severely in some areas.

Astros pitching staff, both in the rotation and the bullpen, has a lot of questions. That Rangers starting rotation has a lot of questions. Bullpen, it's in a weird spot because they lost Kirby Yates and David Robertson isn't back. But they did add, but they added Garcia. They have some other interesting arms in there. So who knows? But that offense is pretty good. I feel like the Rangers had a really, really good offseason, even though that they did trade Nate Lowe.

But yeah, all these teams are really flawed. And we obviously know what the marris flaws are. So and that's. Yeah. And that's what makes this division, the discourse around the division in general so difficult and so interesting because all three of these teams. I mean, it's pretty much the same conversation that we've had for different reasons, of course, but about the Mariners where we're like, yeah, they're probably an 84, 86 win team, which that leaves room for them to be like a 90-win team. also room for them to be like a 77 win team. I think you could say the same thing about the Rangers and the Astros that's currently

constructed right now. I think as things sit right now, the winner of the American League West is going to be the team that is the healthiest throughout the year. And, you know, that's a bummer because injuries are an X factor. You can't really predict them. You're not really, I mean, you could be like, hey, is Jacob de Grom more likely to go on the IL than like, well, Logan, Gilbert? Yes. I mean, just outright, yes. But you never know, right? And like, for all we know,

you know, God forbid, Cala Raleigh has to miss three months and all of a sudden, you're screwed, you know, and maybe it's Corey Seeger or maybe it's Yordon Alvarez, right? Like these teams are really bunched up together. And even the projection systems, which are not my cup of tea, but the projection systems all have these three teams all within three or four games of each other. And when you consider the margin of error, that's a tie. Like that is a statistical tie at the top of this division. So yeah, there's going to be a lot of really small things that come into play here. Playing well in your division is going to be incredibly important.

Seattle handled Texas last year. They have been good against Houston for the last three or four years now. So, you know, they need to continue to do that to have a shot to win the American League West. But it does feel like these three teams are going to be bunched up for most. most of the year. And if one team does, you know, get out to a little bit of a lead, it's not going to be safe because all three of these teams are capable of rattling off a lot of wins in short order for different reasons. So Houston is worse. Doesn't mean they're bad. It doesn't mean they're, you know, not as good of a roster as you are. I think you're about

on par with Houston. And I think you're on about on par with Texas. Again, with different strengths. But overall, the talent of the roster, I feel, is very similar. So I expect, a dragout, you know, knock down, dragout, three-team race. And, you know, Oakland has gotten a lot better as well. So there's going to be fewer easy wins in there. And then the Angels just exist. So, you know, we know how hard they play the Mariners for some reason. But yeah, the American League West is, it's not like stacked. I wouldn't say the American League West is stacked. But what I would say is that the American League West is pretty balanced. So. And there's a lot of floor. Yeah.

In the West. I don't see any 100 lost. And also limited ceilings. I don't see any 100 win teams. I don't see any 100 lost teams in the American League West. And it does feel like, obviously, you know, everything can kind of crumble on a team. Like if Mike Trout gets hurt again and the pitching's like, could Anaheim lose 95 to 100 games again? Sure.

Yeah. Are they likely? I think they're probably a 72 to 75 win team. I think Oakland is probably that. And I think the winner of this division is probably going to have right at about 90 wins would be my guess. Yeah, I would think about 88 to 90. What did the Astros have last year? I think 88.

Yeah. And it just, it feels like even though the Rangers added quite a bit this off season, the Astros did a lot of stuff, still feels like the, the mark to win the division is roughly the same as it was last year. So yeah. Yeah, the Astros not getting Bregman, though, helps, certainly helps the Mariner's. So now let's talk about how Bregman going to Boston could potentially help the Mariners in just a moment. But first, a reminder, this episode of the Locked on Mariners podcast is brought to you by Fanduel. When the game tips off, the NBA action is just getting started and there's no better place to get in on it than Fandual, America's number one sports book. With Fanduel, you can place live best.

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That's fanduel.com for your shot at $150 in bonus bets. Make every moment more with Fandul, the official sports betting partner of the NBA. You're listening to the Lockdown Marriss podcast. So what does Alex Breggman signing with the Red Sox mean in terms of the trade market for the Marrars? Daniel Kramer a few weeks ago reported that the Marys were waiting on Bregman to sign somewhere because they felt that it was going to create some sort of trickle-down effect on the infeld, on the infield market that they could take advantage of.

They wound up deciding only a few days later, we're actually not going to wait anymore. They wound up signing Jorge Polanco. But now that Bregman has signed with the Red Sox team that we know the Marys have had a lot of conversations with this off season, could that reopen that line of communication? So Breggman, it really depends on where they're going to deploy him positionally. It seems like second base is the obvious answer here, though we don't have a definitive answer yet.

If he does play a second base, this is a far less interesting conversation that we're going to have, and we will have that conversation. But let's have the more fun conversation, first and foremost because content baby Rafael Devers not good at third base really good player just not good at third base

he's been worth a negative 14 outs above average over the last two years combined so that is obviously sparked the idea that hey they can move him to first base Craigman who's still pretty good at third base over on the hot corner boom there you go but

they of course have trust and causes who we've talked a lot about on this show because of the conversations the mayor has had with the Red Sox back in November and December. Adam Jude and Ryan DeVish reported that the Red Sox made two separate attempts to try and send Kossis to the Pacific Northwest this offseason. One for Bryce Miller and Brian Wu. Obviously the mayor said no to that.

And again, later on for Castillo, but they also would have required the Mariners to take on Masataka, Yeshita's $55.8 million that he's owed over the next three years. mayor has obviously balked at that So you would think on the surface, all right, well, if Devers goes over to first and Breggman's at third, then they would just slide Kossus into a DH role But that's where our 55.8 million dollar men comes into play here. Yoshita Because Yoshita played in the outfield as a rookie in 2023.

It was worth negative eight outs above average. And as a result, last year he played one game in the field. One. So you have a lefty, just like Kossus, who has the DH, and also exclusively has the DH against right-handed pitchers, and is making all this money. So they kind of have to play him. They kind of have to carry him on their roster.

So Kossis kind of a weird fit if Devers is over at first. So at this point, though, I can't imagine the Red Sox have any interest in Luis Castillo. They pivoted from Castillo and signed Walker Beeler to a one-year $21 million deal. They traded for Garrett Crochet. They have Tanner Halk. They have Cutter Crawford. They have Brian Beow. They have Lucas G.

Alito, Cooper Chriswell, Richard Fitz, so on and so forth. They have a lot of starting pitchers and starting pitching depth within their organization. So could you get Kossus for prospects? Cossus for something else on your major league roster? Does that even make sense for the Mariners? And obviously we should also mention here that there's been conflicting reports about how much the mayorers even like Kossus to begin with. Adam Jude most recently on the Marine Layer podcast with our good friends,

T.J. and Lyle said the mayor is kind of determined that Kossis wasn't a great fit for the ballpark. But then we've also heard reports that are like, no, they like Kossis. fine. They just don't value him as much as Boston. So who knows? But yeah, how do you feel about Kossus? Again, it's probably not likely considering that Bregman can just go over it second, go over to second, which Scott Boris has said he would be willing to do coming off of elbow surgery.

He had like a bone chip removed from his elbow that's off season or something like that. So, but if Kossis were to be made more available because of the signing, do you think the Maris could make that happen? Would they want to make that happen? Yeah, it'd still be tough for that to happen, mostly because I think the Red Sox would probably just bench Yoshita. And I mean, you don't want to bench an $18 million year player. But, you know, the Red Sox just shelled out $40 million for Bregman. So it's less to see them act like a big market team again, by the way, just for the health of baseball in general.

So yeah, it would be a pretty tight fit, you know, if Bregman is going to play third and Devers is going to play first, then, yeah, there would be a little bit of a squeeze there. But it sounds like they're not going to do that. It sounds like right now the idea is Bregman is going to play second. Then Cossus could play first and everything's still fine. But on the off chance, they don't want to do that or they change their mind. I do think that the Red Sox are very much willing to trade Tristan Caustis. This doesn't feel to me like Caustis was out there because like, oh, it's all we could, it's all we had to shop.

Like, no, it does feel to me like there's some kind of disconnect between Casas and the Red Sox and that he was in fact shopped, not listened on. He was shopped this winter and they couldn't find a deal. And to me, that's an important distinction is that they were trying to trade Tristan Kossis to help their big club not well we're willing to listen on Kossis. I think that that distinction is important. So if it does come down to it, yeah, I do think that they would try to move Kossis because I think he can get more obviously than somebody like Yoshita, which is obvious,

you know, that they would. So, yeah, I think there's a small possibility that the Kossis thing can, you know, kind of reignite here. But I also look at and I say, you know, like, for what? Like the, the Red Sox probably not going to trade for the starter. Like you said, obviously the Mariners aren't going to trade them any of the four young guys. Castillo for Casas. Seems like a non-starter for Boston right now, unless they want to add more payroll. I don't know. Maybe it's like, hey, we'll give you Giolito and cost us for Castillo and maybe that's a way because Gialito's contracts only for one year at this point. So maybe that's an avenue that could go. But it does.

Could you work out something with the Marlins who again still need to add payroll where the Marlins take on Yoshita? Possibly. But the Marlins don't seem all that interested in qualifying for revenue sharing because they've done, I think they just made their first free agent signing. They sign Calquantrol, I think. So it's like the Marlins don't seem to care about that, but maybe that's an avenue you could go down. But I do think that if you told me that the Mariners were acquiring CASUS during the Cactus League, right? My question would be not what prospects did they give up? It would be, did they give up

brash or did they give up Munoz? I think that's the only way that they this type of deal would work right now based on where the two teams sit in July, all bets are off, right? Like if Devers is so bad at third that they finally have to move them to first and then Breggman play third and now they bring up Campbell, who is now kind of blocked a little bit to play second, although Campbell can play in the outfield as well, but whatever. Right now they want Campbell to play second. So there's a way where, you know, midseason, even if the Red Sox are good, that they would trade

Casas. But right now, I look at this Red Sox team and I go, okay, so assuming they're not going to take prospects for Casas, which I think is probably a safe assumption. I think at that point, it's like, okay, it's Brash or it's Munoz. And if you're the Red Sox, why would you take Brash right now? Like, you don't know if he's healthy. You don't know when he's going to pitch. So it's probably Munoz for Brash. And Munoz for Casas. Yes. And, you know, like, could the mayor, like, would you rather have an everyday bat than a, than a, like, an elite closer? Yes.

Yeah. Yeah. And a vacuum. Yes. And if I had more time, yes, but I don't. There's six weeks to go until opening day. Right. And now I just traded my all-star closer.

Right. And run prevention is what the mariners are built on, whether we like it or not. Yeah. They're going to try and give up fewer runs because there's just a calf on how many runs they can score. based on the home ballpark they play in. So if it's true and they don't think Cossus is a great fit for T-Mobile, there's no way they even entertain that.

So I just don't see a deal where Cossus comes over unless it's for pure prospects. I don't see the point in the Red Sox doing that. Yeah. And it just seems like they like Cossus. They don't love it. But they would only acquire Cossus on their terms. And their terms are pure prospect return.

Right. Or it's the Godfather. offer for Castile, right? Sure. Yeah. I just, I don't see it between Kossis and the Mariners right now. Again, in July, things can be different. There's three-team trades that could be worked out there. And there's a still small chance that you could have a three-team trade, you know, in spring,

certainly. It does feel like every year these bigger kind of, you know, these big name players get moved in spring training or early in the regular season more and more often. So I wouldn't rule it out entirely for this year. I just think it's highly unlikely that Kossis is playing for anyone but Boston on opening day this year. And the Mariners, again, unless it is some out of left field, they're willing to trade Andres Munoz and just hope that they can, you know, bandage together back into the bullpen with, you know, injured Matt Brash and whatnot.

Unless that is the case, I don't see it making really any sense for either side. at this stage. You're listening to the Lockdown Mariners podcast. So the likely outcome that Bregman does start the year at second base, Devers is at third, cost is at first. Breggman is still blocking a couple of guys at second base and potentially makes them available via trade.

One guy, probably the most notable guy that we'll talk about out of this group is Von Grissom, who's also blocked that shortstop by Trevor Story. Grissom has carried a lot of hype around him for the last few years, dating back to his time with the Braves organization. He was a big piece in the, or he was the big piece in the Chris Sale deal a year ago. First year in Boston didn't work out for him.

He got hurt. Injuries and just general poor performance. He hasn't been very good. They've stunted his major league career so far. But he's only 24 years old. he has a minor league option left and he's apparently put a lot of work in on his body this off season. Craig Breslo said that he added 20 pounds of muscle this off season, which might not necessarily be a good thing, but he is clearly attempting to reinvent himself and he's putting a lot of effort into kind of, you know,

putting himself on the right course here. so Grissom obviously plays at a position of uncertainty for the Marys right now Dillamore is currently slated to be the everyday man there we've talked about that

ad nauseum and how you know you're taking him out of the role that he's actually really good in we've seen him be an everyday player on occasion when guys have gone down and he's gotten over exposed right and then you got Ryan Bliss

who again had a pretty good series against Miami, pretty good series against Cleveland last year, had some good moments, sporadically here and there. But overall, mixed bag, right? Overall, Ryan Bliss is still unproven. And you're hoping that those guys can at least hold down the fort until hopefully Cole Young proves he's ready for the majors.

And he's ready to play every day at second base. That's essentially the plan right now at second base for the Marys. So would you be interested in taking a shot on Grissom? Sure. Obviously, the cost is pretty important here. He does have a minor league option left. So, you know, they're like, I just, I don't know if Grissom, like, do I feel so much better about him than I do Ryan Bliss? Not really.

but you know Grissom does have that former top 100 prospect pedigree that we know that Jerry really likes and obviously he's been a high performer high miners performer you know pretty much the last two or three years and he does play a position of need so yeah I could see Seattle maybe taking a shot here

I think this is one of those cases where you're either training a extra bullpen arm that you have or you're trading a non-40 pretty decent prospect to bring him in. Maybe somebody like, I mean, I don't know, Tai Pete might be too much. But, you know, somebody like that who's a couple years away and there's upside there. So yeah, Grissom could be a guy who could be had really cheap or he could be moderately expensive. It kind of depends on what the Red Sox view him as and where they view, you know, does he have any path to a role? can you play left field for us for, you know, 50 games or something like that.

So yeah, Grissom is interesting. I think the cost would have to be very favorable. But Seattle and Boston have talked a lot this winter. They understand what each other is looking for. And so if Grissom is moved, I would think that Seattle would be one of the teams that they would call simply because, again, they have a need at second base. they have budgetary restrictions that Grissom doesn't impact one way or the other. And they probably have some excess bullpen arms that the Red Sox might have interest in, both veterans and maybe even prospects like, I don't know, Hunter Cranton or Brock Moore or,

or maybe even Troy Taylor, that kind of challenge type of trade. So yeah, I think Grissom is interesting. ultimately at the end of the day, unless it is just like an incredible bargain, I feel like Seattle's probably going to be like, yeah, you know, we'll roll with Demo and Bliss, and then Young will be up before too long,

and we'll just kind of go with that. So if not Grissom, there's Saddam Raphaela, but the Red Sox really like him, and he might be part of their outfield plan right now, it seems. So he's probably off the table. David Hamilton, maybe. But Hamilton, to me, the Mariners would probably view him as someone to backfill Moore's role while Moore is playing every day at second base. Yeah, which is still valuable.

I mean, you really could use some speed and athleticism off your bench. But on that note, couldn't the Red Sox use him for the same exact reason? Sure, but I mean, they have Grissom, they have Campbell, they have young athletic, explosive players already in the org. For what it's worth, I did hear that Hamilton was a guy, the Mariners asked Boston about last winter, and they instead got Samad Taylor. They were interested in that type of player, a speedster who can kind of play the outfield and the infield a little bit off the bench who performed in the minors. And so, you know, do they still like Hamilton that much? Maybe. Are they still looking for that type of player? Yeah, I think you're always looking for that type of player.

So, yeah, I do think that they... I mean, he was good last year. He was good. Only a 92 WRC plus of the plate, but he was almost a 2-1 player by Fangraph standards. Right. And that's going to cost you a little bit. Like, that probably is going to cost you a Troy Taylor. Probably is going to cost you at Gregory Santos.

And so, yeah, it might be a little too expensive. But, you know, again, just for the record, I did hear that the Mariners were asking about him last year. Although I think that was specifically because, they were looking for a specific type of player. And Samad Taylor fills that role. And Taylor's still in the org. Not on the 40 man, but he's still in the org. So do they feel good about where they're at with that?

Or do they want Hamilton? And the nice thing about Hamilton is not only does it backfill kind of Dylan Moore's role for this year, but Dimo's a free agent after this year. And Hamilton will still be making league minimum. And the Mariners really don't have a replacement for Dimo in their org. as things sit right now. Could that be Ryan Bliss? Could that be Leo Rivas? Sure, it's possible. But I think that they would like somebody who can also play the outfield with some regularity and do some of the things that Demo does. And Marries just don't have that guy in their org right now. So maybe Hamilton is a guy that they go out there and like, hey, you know, he's Demo this year and for the next four or five years. Yeah. You know, so we do know that Delamore role is when the Meriters do value. So, you know, they extend

at Dylan Moore. Which is also why it's weird that they're rolling with him as an everyday guy. Now, they don't have many options right now, but, but yeah, it is a bit weird that, that because of how much they valued that role. And they obviously know what Moore's look like in that role relative to playing every day. Yeah. We're not the only ones like talking about that. It's not like, this is like a secret that only Colby and I know.

So it's weird that they're like, yeah, more's the guy now. We're giving him the keys. And I guess Leo Rivas is filling that role a little bit. I guess the idea is basically just do what they did last year when JP was on the I. Which is we just roll with Dylan for a month, six weeks. And then Rivas just fills that role. And then once our long term answer is ready to go, then Dimo just reverts back to that bench roll, which would be more palatable if your third baseman wasn't a walking hamstring injury.

So, yeah, things can get pretty dicey pretty quick. So a guy like David Hamilton does have value to you, even if he is just a bench player for you. And it's also a guy, it's also a guy like Bon Grissom who probably can play third base, does have a minor league option yet left, and you don't have like that type of player in your org right now. it's why even giving up a little something to get him and stash him in AAA might be well worth it. All right, well, that's going to do it for our show.

Thank you so much for joining us here on the Lockdown Marrars podcast for Colby Patnode. I'm Tiding Gazzalus. Be sure give us a follow on Twitter at L0 underscore Marrers. You can follow me at Tading Gzalyn. And Colby at CPAT 11. That's CpAT 1-1. We're also in Blue Sky.

You can follow me at TDG, Colby and MLB Colby and the show at Lockdown Mariner's. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day and we'll see you next time. Peace.