Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - How Many Cy Young Contenders Do the Mariners Have?

Episode Date: February 21, 2023

On today's episode, Colby asks Ty to pick between five stud pitchers' résumés, but Ty doesn't know who they belong to! Plus, the guys discuss how many top-20 AL pitchers will call Seattle home in 2023. Finally, Colby thinks he has the solution to Jarred Kelenic's problems and, spoiler alert, it's not the shift restrictions.Be sure to follow or subscribe to Locked On Mariners wherever you prefer your podcasts! For questions and other inquiries, email: [e-mail] the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @danegnzlz | @CPat11For more of Ty and Colby, check out their Patreon: patreon.com/controlthezone/Join our Slack!FanDuelMake Every Moment More. Place your first FIVE DOLLAR bet to get ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY DOLLARS in Free Bets – win or lose! Visit Fanduel.com/LockedOn today to get startedBuilt BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKEDON15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN)  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

On today's episode of Locked-on Mariners, we're going to play a game of would-you-rather with starting pitchers. Plus, Colby will tell you the real way Derek Kellner can actually get back on track. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners, your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. It is Tuesday, February 21st, 2023. This is Tyning Azales and Colby Patented for the Lockdown Mariners podcast. Thank you so much for making us your first listen.

Subscribe, like, and turn on alerts if you're watching on YouTube. or subscribe and leave a five-star review on your preferred podcast platform if you like what you hear. And if you want to hear from us even more, please consider signing up for our Patreon. The link as well as our social accounts is in the description below. And on the show today, we're going to play a game of would you rather with major league starting pitchers. Plus, Colby has some thoughts on how to save Jared Kelnick. But let's start with our game here because Colby has put together five pitchers, five starting pitchers, four, I believe, in the American League, one in the National League. He hasn't told me who they are.

All he's told me is that they are pitcher A, pitcher B. pitcher C, pitcher D, and Petri. And he's given me some numbers that I put on this graphic here. And I assume, Colby, that you have a grander point to make with all of this here. Because, I mean, everything that you do is with purpose, of course, right? Yeah. Sure. Let's go with that.

Absolutely. No, it's not really a game of would you rather. It's more of a blind resume. So you guys aren't watching on YouTube. the numbers might get a little jumbled, so I'll do the best I can. But essentially, I took five stats that I think are relatively fair when comparing pitchers more so than like ERA and just raw strikeout numbers and stuff like that. So the five categories here are Ks per nine, base on ball per nine, home run to fly ball,

percentage, PIP and XFIP. And all of these categories, they account for what the pitcher really can. and control, right? It's, it's, it's, it's, you're, I, I don't want to people trying to compare defenses and, and ballparks and stuff like that. So all of these are kind of, these stats that I picked are kind of designed to try and eliminate that, that argument as best you can. I mean, obviously, that's still going to come through a little bit.

But essentially, um, I just think tie should rank these guys. And then I'm going to tell you who each one is. And then I'm going to give you guys a little, a little tip to, uh, to help. some of you. So, let's, should we just run down the, the numbers here? So,

all right. Yeah, so pitcher A here has a 815Ks per 9, 197 walks per 9, 8.5% home run to fly ball rate. 299 FIP, which is actually a pretty common number on here. You see 299 a lot.

And then a 329X FIP. Pitcher B has a 921K per 9 with a 152 walks per 9. 9% home run to fly ball rate 299 FIP 333X FIP PITR C has a 10 Ks per 9 269 nice W walks per 9 10% home run to fly ball rate

307 FIP don't shake your head at me And a 323X FIP You guys can't see it though 1110 Ks per 9 for pitcher D Along with a 382 walks per 9 8.4 home run to fly ball rate 3105 and a 3-50 X-FIP.

And then finally, pitcher E comes in with an 867 case per 9, a 3 walks per 9, 12 and a half percent home run to fly ball rate, 306 FIP, and a 299 X-FIP. So do you just want me to knock these out one by one, essentially rank them from 5 to 1? Sure.

Give me the pitcher there that you, these are, by the way, these are 2022 stats. and I'm not implying that they are predictive of 2023. I'm just saying they're the most recent data we have. So let's just go ahead. Tell me who you think the worst pitcher out of that group is right there. I'm going to go with pitcher D. Even though he has the highest strikeouts,

even though that he has the highest strikeouts, he's walking nearly four guys per nine innings. He has the highest ex-fip out of all these guys as well. So the expected stats don't favor him that well in comparison, relative to the other four guys here. I mean, he's not giving up a lot of home runs. I mean, he's given up the fewest home runs out of all five of these guys. But yeah, I mean, there's more to pitching than just strikeouts.

Like, you can't walk guys. You can't walk four guys per nine innings. I just, I don't want that. So I'm going to go pitcher D at number five. Pitcher D is Cy Young contender entering the season, Dylan Cese of the Chicago White Sanks. Wow, wow. So Dylan Cese is, and by the way, when we say he's the worst pitcher of this group, like this rotation, would win 110 games.

Like that's how good all these guys on this list. Right. Right. So we're not saying Dylan Sees is bad or he's not, you know, worthy of Cy Young consideration or anything like that. But yeah, pitcher D is Dylan C. so, you know, 3-8-2 based on ball per nine. And the high X-FIP kind of

knock him out of the top four here. Yeah. So I'll go. I'll go pitcher E at number four. Because he has the second highest walk rate. He's not striking out a lot of guys. he gives up a ton of home runs. I mean, 12.5% home run to fly ball rate.

I don't know what that looks like on the grand scale here, right? But the rate is extraordinarily high relative to everyone else here. So that, yeah, but, you know, 306 FIP, 299X FIP, the expected stats really love him. So, yeah, that puts him slightly above Dillon's cease for me. Who is this? So the how run a fly ball rate doesn't hurt him as much as you might think. Because he is perhaps the most premier ground ball pitcher in all baseball. And he happens to pitch against the Mariners quite a bit.

Pitcher E is Framber Valdez of the Houston Astros. So again, very good pitcher. Very good pitcher. Yeah. Yes. But, yeah, when you can't get the ball elevated against him, you can't hit home runs. It's just, it's tough. It's tough.

So, yeah, I mean, again, these are really small differences in the grand speed. I have to nitpick. I have to nitpick here with these guys. That's the point, right? That's the point is this is designed to not be easy. All right. So who's number three? I'm going to go pitch or see.

Okay. Obviously, 10 strikeouts, 10 strikeouts for 9, but he has the highest walk rate out of the remaining guys. 10% home run to fly ball rate. The 3-2-3. ex-fip is the best of the three guys remaining, but his FIP is higher than the other two guys. I just, again, you know, yeah, I have to,

I have to nitpick here. So I'm just going to go pitch or C at number three here. Who is this? Pitcher C is Seattle Mariners ace, Luis Castillo. Ooh. So, yeah, quick recap here. It's been Dylan Cs at five, Framber at four, and Luis Castillo at three.

Castillo does have the highest home. run to fly ball rate of those left, the highest walk rate of those left, and the highest FIPP, although, again, it's by 0.08. So statistically not that relevant, but there you go. So I, I'm going to rank him number two, but I'm, I'm pretty sure I know who this pitcher is. Pitcher, is pitcher A, Sandy Alcantra? Pitcher A is Sandy Alcantra, yes. Yeah.

National League's Sight Young Award winner, Sandy Alcantra. which I believe Ty and I both correctly predicted a year ago in this time range that he would win the 2022 Syung Award. So, yeah, pitcher B is Sandy Alcantra. So pitcher A. Pitcher A. Yeah. Yeah. So pitcher B is your best pitcher out of this group, huh?

Yeah. I mean, like he's not giving up a ton of home runs. The FIP is excellent, obviously the same as Alcantra there. he's striking out but I get nine strikeouts per nine so that's that's kind of again we're nitpicking here and also I get you know half a percent off of the the walk rate as well like dude doesn't walk guys he's not giving up a ton of home runs he's striking out nine guys per nine yeah I'm gonna go pitcher B here second highest FIPP of the group but again yeah talking about decimal points here.

Well, Ty, pitcher B, who you said is the best pitcher of this group, is none other than Seattle Mariners second year pitcher George Kirby. I had a feeling. When you mentioned Castillo, I was like, oh, okay, that was the guy that he was trying to make a point about. No, it is George Kirby, after all.

Yeah, now that I think about the numbers, though, like the walk rate, the home run, fly ball rate, yeah, that makes a ton of sense that it's Kirby. And I mean, you know, that's what we've been saying here, man. George Kirby is the truth. Right. So here's the point. If you guys can do it, which I know a lot of our listeners cannot,

run to the sports books like Fandul before it's too late because Sandy Alcantra is the favorite. Tied with Corbyn Burns, who even though he cost the Brewers, the playoff spot, is still very good. He is the favorite in the National League Say Young Award race. Dylan Seas is third on the Say Young race. race right now. Luis Castillo is actually in the top 10 at plus 1,600.

Framber is at plus 2,000 right below him. And all the way down, you got to scroll all the way. George Kirby, even though it's gone up, has gone up in recent days, plus 7,000. Oh, it's no longer plus 8,000. No, it's plus 7.

So people are getting wise to this. So you guys got a shot here to go on our terrific sponsor and bet on George. Kirby to win the Siong because as Ty just showed you he's better than Sandy Alcantra. I mean, clearly. That's exactly what I was saying. I'm surprised that Framber has lower odds than Luis at this point because I mean, I feel

like given that given his postseason run that they would overhype the hell out of them over at really any sports book, you know, Vegas in general. Hashtag not medical advice, but yeah. Hey honestly, Louisa plus 1600, that's not bad either. So that's pretty good. That's pretty good. All right. Well, that would have been a good transition into our Fanduil ad read, but Fanduil is actually scheduled for our second ad to read today. So instead, we're going to be talking about Bilt Bar here. Looking for a delicious treat, but don't want all the fat and calories. And you got to try Bilt Bar. We just got through the holidays. And I know my goal is eat a little healthier this year. And if you're like me, where you want to eat healthier, but don't want to compromise taste. The man, I've got just the thing for you. You've got to try Bilt. What built, healthy is actually tasty. Seriously, there's, there's a lot. so delicious you won't think they're good for you, which is perfect for your New Year's resolution. And what makes built bars so good? Well, for starters, they are all covered in 100% real chocolate. That's right, real chocolate. And they come into unbelievable flavors like churro, peanut butter

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You're listening to the Lockdown Aaroners podcast. Thank you again for making us to your first listen. So Lockdown is polling. all of our hosts, including us, to determine who are the top 10 starting pitchers in both the American League and the National League. But I want us to focus on the American League here. The options that they've given us, there isn't a right-in option. They've just given us the pitchers with the highest odds to win the Cy Young on, on Fanduel. So let's go through all these pictures on here, some of which we just talked about. So Jacob de Grom, Garrett Cole, Alec Manoa,

Dylan Sees, Carlos Radon, Shoahe O'Tani, Shane McClanahan, Framber Valdez, Shane Bieber, Louise Castillo, Kevin Gossmann, Christian Javier, Robbie Ray, Tyler Glassnell, Logan Gilbert, Nestor Cortez, Tristan McKinsey, Lance McCullors, Tyler Anderson,

and Lucas Gialito. Why is Tyler Anderson on here? George Kirby? Let's start here. If you're betting on Tyler Anderson to win the Syung, you need help. You should just like your money on fire.

Yeah. Like seriously, just go dump it on the counter and then walk away. You're never going to see it again. Yeah, that's dumb. Kirby's better than about half the guys you listed there. You know, there's some, hey, I mean, like, we're not trying to turn this into the betting episode, but Lucas Gialito behind Tyler Anderson.

Like, I know he didn't have a good year last year, but like, come on. So, yeah. Yeah. It's interesting. Robbie Ray is still there. Logan Gilbert's still there, even though Kirby had a better year last year than both of them.

Yeah, I mean, personally, when you read that list, I think Seattle has four of the 20 best starters in the American League. I don't think that's a far stretch. So now, you know, the sports books haven't caught up to how they should be valued because I'm ranking the four Mariners starters right now. I mean, it's Luis. one, Kirby two, and then a real debate between Logan

and Ray. So, yeah, I mean, basically, I haven't voted, and I refuse to because I will not pay homage to the disrespect that is being shown to George Kirby 23 Tsayung Award winner.

So, no, I will not vote in this, but also, yeah, the Mariners pitching is very good. And yet, even though that you and I are both, not voting in this for now, as in protest for in favor of, of George Kirby. I'm the only one getting called a diva in our group chat for some reason.

I know. I thought that was weird. I thought that was weird. I think it maybe got you and I mixed up or something. I don't know. I don't know, man. Hobby was coming for my neck last night.

Shout out to, shout out to hobby of lockdown Padres. But yeah. Yeah. You guys had that report, right? You know, you kind of went on his show and you bashed the Mariners and they started a 14 game

win street yeah yeah that was uh see i i was the reason that they turned their season around and ended the drought of course right it was all me it was all my doing um all right so yeah uh just just just go with it for for once please just let me have one no no all right so yeah uh i would put kirby as as a very close to with louise castillo and the mariner rotation if I had to rank these guys. I think that gap is pretty close and could be closed fairly quickly. And that's

nothing against Luis Cascio. I just think that Kirby, with that command and all of his pitches working, the sky is the limit for George Kirby. Legitimately talking about a Sy Young contender here in Kirby. That's why we're pounding the table about this whole thing

with him because you and I both truly believe that he has what it takes this year to go and do it. Um, so, you know, uh, and, you know, the Gilbert Ray debate is interesting, right? Because I mean, like, I'm sure a lot of people in our comments right now are picking Gilbert definitively, Gilbert, because I mean, a lot of people just hate Robbie Ray. And we, we talked about that whole thing. Uh, but I, I think that's a pretty close.

I think that that one could go either way, really. Um, I'd say Kirby is locked in at two for now and then Castillo locked in at one. But, uh, number three is definitely up for debate for sure. Well, I mean, I don't know, Ty, according to you, Kirby was better last year than Castillo. So maybe Kirby should be number one. That's true, too. That's true, too, right? We literally just did the exercise.

That's true. Yeah, with the, with the context of five stats, yep. And nothing else. Those are the only five that matter. Of course, naturally. Sure. Yeah, I do wonder if maybe like Mariner fan or maybe just us in general, if we're, we've kind of like overlooking Logan Gilbert and his ability to get a little better,

because we haven't talked about Logan really at all. To be fair, we haven't been asked about them really at all. Yeah. In terms of the starting pitchers, we have gotten fewer questions about Logan Gilbert than any of the other five. Do you think that's just because maybe, I don't know, I kind of feel like I'm like this with Gilbert as well, that I kind of am just complacent.

Like I know what I'm going to get out of Logan Gilbert. And maybe like maybe the splitter that we're hearing about changes some things if it's actually real and a viable pitch that he can use in games against major league hitters. Like maybe that changes things. But overall, I kind of feel like I know what I'm going to get out at Logan, Gilbert. I feel like he has a very high floor. Yeah. But I think there's probably more ceiling, regardless of it, the splitter really helps or not.

Or if it exists, until we see it, it doesn't exist. So, yeah, I just, I wonder because, you know, there are other ways. for Logan Gilbert to get better without adding another pitch. For example, he could find more command of that slider. And if we know what happens when Logan Gilbert has two pitches that are both at, you know, 60 on the night. Dominate. Yeah, he can dominate any lineup in baseball.

But we also know how often that happens. Typically, Logan's thing is he has his fastball. Well, I would say like 85% of the time. He'll have his good fastball and he'll be able to command it. And he'll have one other breaking ball or off speed pitch. that's like 45 or 50 that night. And with that combination, he's still been like a really solid number three starter since basically he stepped on the big league field.

So can he take that next step? Can he be a number two or can he be like a three plus type of arm without a new pitch? I think he can. It's just a matter of he's got to find a way to get that slider more competitive because there are a lot of times where on any given night, it's just Gilbert's fastball and he's just living off of it. And that's a really good pitch because of the extension, because of the velocity, because of the command. But you need more than one.

And so I think if Gilbert can either refine the slider or if the splitter is a legitimate true, you know, majorly quality pitch some point this year, then I think Gilbert still has another gear that he can get to. What would you say his ceiling is then? Gilbert. Yeah. Number two. Number two. Yeah. I think somewhere in the range of like

Aaron Nola, somewhere in that range, I think you can get to. I mean, Aaronola is a Sayon contentor. Right. I mean, do it a little differently. But yeah, I don't think we're ever going to see Gilbert put up like the 10 and a half K per nine or anything like that. But I think you can settle in right around nine and have the walks below like two and a half per nine and, you know, limit some of the hard contact.

Because Gilbert gives up a lot of hard contact because he's a fastball head. every pitcher. Yeah, he finds a lot of barrels. I mean, it depends on the night, of course. Right. But I mean, you think about like the Toronto start, you know, a couple of years back. He's more susceptible to it because if he doesn't have the pinpoint command of his fastball, he typically doesn't have anything else to counter with it. So when he leaves the fastball down or in the middle of the plate, which he's prone to do, it's going to get hit hard because they're up there looking for a fastball. So that's why I think it's important to have another pitch. either the splitter or the slider. He just has to have something

that he can both throw for strikes and get guys to miss. That's kind of the key to Gilbert taking the next step. All right. So when we were talking about what to talk about on today's show, you said I could talk about how to save Jared Kelnick,

the real way to save Jared Keltnick. So we're going to get into that in just a moment, but real quick, a reminder, this episode of Lockdown, oh, I'm scared. This episode of Lockdown Mariners is brought to you by Fandul.

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And you're listening to the Lockdown Mariners podcast. Thank you again for being in us your first listen. So Colby, how do the Mariners save Jerichkelnik? Or how does Jared Kelnick save himself? Yes. By doing something that will allow him to fix the problems I'm about to point out. I'm not a swing guy. I'm not going to tell you what he has to do with his hands.

I don't know. Swing Dr. Colby Patnode. Sure. Yeah. So here's the deal with Kelnick, right? I see this a lot. A lot of theories about Kelnick and like how he needs to get better, what he needs to get better at. I've seen, you know, the shift will help him and like the shift ban will, we'll fix Jared Kelnick. No, that's dumb. I'm sorry. That's dumb. You know, he needs to go out there and just needs to let loose and have fun like Julio. So like that's it, huh?

That's the only thing that's preventing Jared Kalnick. He's too uptight. That's what's preventing him. And while both of those theories could help, I mean, they could legitimately help Jared Kelnick. They're not going to solve the problem for Jared Kalnick. Yeah, like I think there is like a bit of a mental side to it because he is a guy that is clearly pressing at times.

He gets caught up a little too much in his head. I think that's pretty clear. But yeah, it's not everything for sure. No. And on the other hand, how much fun can you possibly? fake when you're, you know, hitting a buck 30, right? It's pretty tough to fake that. So while there are some like there are pieces here that will help the shift ban or restrictions will help Kelnick some.

But those are really band-aids on a wound that needs stitches. Like it's, it's helpful. It helps. It's better than nothing. But you need surgery. You need to fix this before it gets, you know, incurable. And here's the issue with Kelnick, at least last year. one of them we already know Jared Kellnick strikes out way too much right last year Jared

Calnick ran a 33.7% K rate. His rookie year is 28.1 so it actually got worse and it wasn't good in his in his rookie year so that's a big one right he needs to make more contact however the type of contact he makes is equally as important because last year Jared Kellnick had a 15.5% pop-up rate. These are different than fly balls. Fly balls go into the outfield. Fly balls can turn into home runs. Pop-up rates are just straight up in the air.

They do not account for anything. The batting average on balls that are classified as pop-up. Ty, you want to take a guess on what it is? No. You just tell me. I don't want to dive into that. 0-1-0. Yeah.

One in 100 pop-ups goes for it. hit. They are effectively strikeouts. Really pop-ups or strikeouts. Kelnick had a 15.5% pop-up rate last year. If you're wondering, major league average, 7%. Kelnick popped the ball up more than

twice as much as twice as much as the average major league player. Essentially, when you add those up, 49% of Jared Kelnick's at-bats last year, ended in a strikeout or a pop-up where the batting average of those two events is never higher than 12, 13, 10. That's it.

Like, not 100, not one out of 10. No. One out of 100. So nearly half of the at-bats that Jared Kelnick took last year, he had no chance to get a hit, to get on base. That's the problem. It's not the shift. It's really not. Kelnick, I think he has this reputation as like he's this massive pole hitter.

And he's not. He's not. Jared Kelnik going to the opposite field is not an issue with him. In his career, he's a 24.5%. Major league average is 25.4%. Last year it was 25.2. So basically league average and going to the opposite field. He actually was up the middle, far greater than major league average.

Last year was 48%. Major league average. is about 37%. Kelmink is not a dead pole hitter. He can go to the opposite field. He can go up the middle. That's not the issue. The shift isn't going to help him that much.

It's the strikeouts. He needs to stop striking. He would be so much better off hitting a weak ground ball than he would popping the ball straight up in the air. Because the weak ground ball might get through. It might find a hole. There might be an error. Your odds of getting on base with a weak ground ball

or a soft line drive or even just a regular fly ball are significantly higher than with the pop-up. It's not, it's not the shift, guys. It's not, he's not having enough fun, right? He's hitting the ball. He's hitting the ball too softly, which. And I guess another way, and this is going to be a very simplified version of it, I guess he's also elevating the ball too much, or he's elevating a swing too much, right?

Launch angle last year, 18% or 18 degree launch angle. Major League average, 12. That's, that's a problem. right again the more balls you hit in the air that's not a problem the more balls you hit straight up in the air you're screwed and here's the deal with kelnick when he does get the bad angle right when he does connect he doesn't have any issue hitting the ball hard we know that we know that when the ball is thrown in a place that jared kelnick can cover which is in a wide spot right now he has no issue finding the barrel last year was 13.6% barrel rate major league average is 6.7

Jared Kalnick can find barrels when you throw the pitch in one of the few spots he can cover. And that's the problem. Jared Kalick doesn't cover the plate well enough. So the strikeouts are up. The infield pop-ups are up and everything else is down. And that is the issue. So Jared Kalnick's swing needs an overhaul. His approach needs an overhaul.

He needs to put the ball and play more. But more importantly, he needs to put the ball in play in a manner in which he has a chance to get a hit in any chance. So that means more ground balls, fine. You'd rather have a 50% ground ball rate than a 15% pop-up rate. That is the issue with Jared Kellogg. It's not to shift. It's not, you know, his attitude. It's not that he's lazy.

It's none of those things. So that Jared Kelnick has half of his at-bats, he had a zero. He had essentially a one-in-a-thousand-a-thous chance of reaching base and half of his at-bats. You can't do it. There's not a hitter alive who can pull. that off. Yeah. You just don't have a shot. You don't. Again, what was the number that you said? 49% of his bats either result in a strikeout or a pop-up? 33.37 strikeout. Yeah. 15.5 pop-up. So literally half of the time. 49.2%. Crazy. Yep. Yeah. And again, Kelllick does some things really well.

Yeah. When his pitch is in his zone, he will barrel it up. And he draws walks, 9.3% walk rate in his career. Major League average is 8.4. He says some big walks, too. Yeah. We know there's power. We know that there's plate discipline.

Jared Kenneville is swinging and missing too much. Yeah. I mean, that's really all it is. It's not rocket science, right? We're not the first ones to say this. But I do think that there are issues here. I think it's, you know, plate coverage-wise, and I'll just give you this example, Ty. In, in 2022, he had 54 at-bats on a breaking ball, right?

Of those 54-up bats, he struck out in 29 of them. He had three hits in those 54-out-bats. Only one of them was for extra paces. Jared Kellnick's slash line on breaking balls last year, 056 with an 074 slugging. You see the problem there? Launch angle 20%. So exit velocity 83.9. Kelman couldn't hit breaking balls last year.

The shift isn't going to fix that. Yeah. So stop saying it's the shift. We need to start looking at other things, more tangible things. And again, the shift will help some. But let's say hypothetically, right? It gives Jared Kelnick 30 points of batting average, the shift, which seems high. But let's say it happens.

Okay. His batting average jumps to 171 last year. Yeah. And because these are almost all singles, his on base percentage jumps to 250. And his slugging is still sub 400. Yeah. That's not a good player. Yeah.

So stop saying it's the shift. It's lazy. It's beyond lazy. Jared Kelnick will be fixed because of the shift restrictions. Yeah, it's, I mean, this is applicable to any player when we're talking about the shift restrictions. It's going to lead to more singles. And probably, you know, an uptick in batting average by like five to ten points at best. That's about it.

That's about it. You're not going to see guys start to, you know, slug more. You're not going to see, you know, significantly higher on base rates. you're not going to see that. It's just, you know, in singles, especially in today's game, where it's just so hard to string together hits, aren't as valuable as you may think it is. So, yeah, he's got to, you know,

he's got to change his whole approach, his whole game plan going to the play because it's not just about getting on base for him, you know, it's also about doing what he does best or what his traits say that he can do best, which is hit for power, hit for value essentially doubles, triples, home runs.

That's what Jared Kelnick needs to be doing more. And he needs to be doing that with more consistency. And nobody's ever hit a home run by hitting a pop up to the shortstop. Exactly. So, yeah, it's not as simple as you guys want to make it. It's not. It's still have hope for Jared Kelnick.

I know that comes off sounding like Kelnik's a bus. He's never going to figure it out. No, I still have hope for Jared Kelnik because of the things he does well. He still hits the ball hard. He can still hit home runs. He still drives. walks. He's just,

he's got to fix that because, again, there's not a hitter on the planet who can essentially strike out 50% of the time and be a good major leaguer. Cannot happen. All right. So before we sign off here, I want to,

you're going to like this. I want to address a very common comment that we get on our YouTube channels. Why doesn't Ty have any Mariners memorabilia behind him? It's a good question, Ty. Yeah. clearly I hate the Mariners I only do this for the money right

the tens of dollars let's just ignore the Mariners hat that I'm wearing or the Mariners colored flannel that I'm wearing see Northwest Green baby Northwest Green what's that color right there Northwest Green and Navy all right speaking of Jared Kelnick look who I got back here see all right and then we also got the each row Hall of Fame bobblehead right over there see it's just my camera you know the camera is kind of shrunken here you can't really see me much. Really, all you can make out is my cowboy bebop record and maybe my cuddie records. And that's about it. I also have a Mariners bat mug. So there,

that answers it definitively. I have Mariners memorabilia behind me. You just can't really see it. Sorry. I'll be honest with you. I am shocked that your local goodwill had so much Mariners stuff for you to pick up last night. Look, I had to rush. I was feeling pressed. I was like, I have to convince these people that I'm actually Mariners fan when I'm not because again I'm doing this for the money. The tens of dollars. Yeah, the the literal pennies that we're making. So no, but yeah.

So there you go. That answers it for all of you, hopefully. Maybe there will still be daughters out there. I'm sure there will be. Colby is still one. Yeah. All right. Well, I have a cold and my face is starting to leak, as you could probably see on the

YouTube version of the show. So that's going to do it for our show. Thank you so much for joy. joining us here on the Lockdown Mariners podcast for Colby Patnode. I'm Tadang Gonzalez. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at LO underscore Mariners. You can follow me at Dan Gonzalez. It's D-A-N-Z-L-Z and Colby at C-Pat-E-T-1-1. And you can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode. Don't make fun of me. I am a sick person. Thank you again for making us your first listen. Now make your second listen. Lockdown MLB

Prospects. Host Lindsay Crosby is at Prospect Encyclopedia. Shut up. And he's going deep on the MLB Stars of Tomorrow. It's free and available where you get your podcast just like us. And with that, have yourself a beautiful baseball day. And we'll see you tomorrow. Peace.