Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - How Many Wins Do the Mariners Need to Get in the Playoffs and Take the AL West?

Starting point is 00:00:00 The Mariners are back home and back in the wind column, and you've got questions. We'll answer them coming up here on Mailbag Monday. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners, your daily Seattle Mariners podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Oh, boy, sailors, it is Monday, September 8th, 2025. This is Tedding Azulis and Colby Patnaud for the Lockdowner's podcast, part of the Lockdown podcast network, your team every day.

Starting point is 00:00:32 This episode is brought to you by Monarch Money. take control of your finances with monarch money use the promo code locked on MLB that's LOC KED O NMLB at monarchmoney.com for 50% off your first year and as always if you want to hear from me and Colby even more and help support the show you can check out our Patreon all you have to do to check that out is click the link in the description of this episode let's open up the mailbag like we do here every Monday and answer some of your merrier's questions daisy and the dingo kicks us off here. Much like their earlier 17 games and 17 days stretch this season, would you say this homestand will ultimately come to define how the rest of the season goes? Seven games at home

Starting point is 00:01:13 against weak opponents. You can bury the teams behind you, or you can let them all stay in the race. We could say that about every homestand, every road trip from this point forward, every game, every pitch. Every single thing is the most important thing that's happened this season, really, from this point forward. Yes, the most important game of the year is the one tonight until tomorrow. And then that'll be the most important game of the year. Yeah, you're in a spot now where, you know, it's go time. There are no, you know, easy or there are no, you know, season defining moments because they're all season defining.

Starting point is 00:01:54 They all have that potential. So, yeah, it's important. this homestand is important, but is it more important than the following road trip? I mean, I know they're going to Kansas City and Houston, so no. But, you know, it's not any more important than the homestand at the end where you have to play the Rockies and the Dodgers. So it's a little bit semantics to say no, because the final 19 games or 20 games, however many are left, that is what defines the, you know, we'll define the season. but yeah, I mean, like, the answer is also yes, because this game is the most important game of the season. And then tomorrow's game will be the most important game.

Starting point is 00:02:36 So the answer is both yes and no. I mean, you're 19 games away from this thing. You have, what, a game and a half lead for that last playoff spot? Is it two and a half back of Houston? Yes. So, you know, still technically can win that division. but you got to win games. And so you can't just be like, oh, well, it's okay if we lose this series

Starting point is 00:03:01 because we need to save our bullets for the next series. Like, no, you have to kind of put the pedal to the metal right now. We are in sprint mode at the end of the marathon here. So, you know, the marathon is just about over. And you have not done enough, unfortunately, to kind of coast to the finish line, which you had the opportunity to do over these last. last, you know, these last 20 games or so, and you failed, like you epically failed. So now you still have to put the pedal to the metal and you have to grind it out for the rest of this year.

Starting point is 00:03:35 So unfortunately, because you didn't take care of business on the last road trip and the road trip before that, now you have to really grind out these last 19 games. There is no opportunity to kind of, you know, like, yeah, let's, let's, you know, let's short start some guys. let's normally we'd use this guy but we need to rest them up for the for the postseason like no you're in the post season right now like you're basically started the post season already so i guess the answer to question is both yes and no yes this is we'll define the season but no more so tomorrow or a week from now or anything like that so kind of tough to answer yeah i mean schedule wise opponent wise the the next road trip the final road trip of the year is is the most important

Starting point is 00:04:19 because those are the two main teams that we've all been scoreboard watching. But also that road trip can mean more or less, depending on what happens during this homestand. All right, Nightrunner wants to know, what record in the remaining games do you think will win the division? I feel that it's 13 and 6, providing that the M's win the Astros series.

Starting point is 00:04:42 Also, what do you think is needed to make the playoffs? I feel it's 11 and 8. I think 11 and 8 gets you in if you win. the Kansas City series because then you'll have the tiebreaker over them. And, yeah, the tiebreaker over everybody who's chasing you, not over the teams that you're chasing. And maybe Houston will see. The whole like Houston series, we'll worry about that when we get there

Starting point is 00:05:09 because that might not be for the division at all or it might be for the division. Like, we don't know. If you're four games back, that series really doesn't matter all that much. I mean, it really doesn't. Unless you sweep. Fine, but. Yeah. Right.

Starting point is 00:05:23 Well, I mean, that's the thing is that if you're not within one game of Houston at the start of that series, you know, a series win really doesn't do anything for you. So it's just kind of one of those things where we'll worry about that when we get there. But yeah, in general, 11 and 8 would give them, what, 86 wins? Yeah. So. Yeah. Yeah. wins. Yeah, I think that would probably do it again, unless you get swept by Kansas City.

Starting point is 00:05:57 You're still in pretty decent shape right now just because the clock is running out, essentially, and you're kind of running down the clock on this thing. But yeah, I think if you go 11 and 8, I think your odds, and as long as you don't get swept by Kansas City, I think your odds are pretty good of getting in with 86 wins. I think 87 definitely gets you in. As for winning the division, yeah, you have to do something like, you know, you do something like 14 and 5, I think, to win this division. But, you know, we'll see. I mean, a big part of this is how does Houston play?

Starting point is 00:06:28 And the answer is, I don't know. The American League is so mediocre. Any of these teams can get hot over this last three weeks. And any of these teams could collapse over these last three weeks. So it's hard to say. But in general, I think 12 is probably the number you're shooting for. They win 12 games down the stretch here. I think they're almost certainly getting in.

Starting point is 00:06:48 And it probably gives them enough. of a shot to win the division, uh, assuming, you know, you'd handle your business against the Astros. So, uh, yeah, I think 12 is probably the number to shoot for. The Astros have been so painfully mediocre for the last two months. They've been playing like slightly sub 500 ball for the last two months. You know, they just lost a series to the Rangers who are all beat up. Uh, they're going to Toronto tomorrow.

Starting point is 00:07:19 So we'll see how that goes. that might be a big like tip off as to how the you know next couple of weeks are going to go for them I think it's reasonable to expect like worst case scenario they go 11 and 7 over the stretch and that's including you taking that series in Houston so that would get them to 89 wins so you would have to win 15 more games or 14 more games and then with the wild card I think 12 is the safe zone I think 11 is probably even the same zone especially if you won the series against the royals nine or ten is where like you probably still could get in but that's dicey especially depending on what happens in kansas city but yeah i would

Starting point is 00:08:06 say 11 to 12 is is the safe zone like you're pretty much you do that you get to that mark you're probably in all right we are going to answer more of your questions here in just a moment but first a reminder of this episode of the lockdown airs podcast is brought to you once again by monarch money. Ever check your bank account and wonder, where did all my money go? Between dining out, online shopping and entertainment, it's easy to lose track. That's where Monarch Money comes in, your personal CFO giving you full visibility and control over your finances.

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Starting point is 00:09:05 the stress. Take control of your finances with Monarch Money. Use promo code locked-on MLB at MonarchMoney.com for 50% off your first year. That's Monarchmoney.com promo code L-O-C-E-D-O-N-M-L-B for half off your first year. And you're listening to the Lockdown Marriss podcast for instant reactions following every Mariner's game. Be sure to tune into the Marriss postcast with Ayn Auerst and Christopher Crawford available on both the Lockdown Merr's YouTube and podcast feeds. Let's get back into your questions here on Mailbag Monday. Mr. Mariner has two questions here.

Starting point is 00:09:43 First one is how much of the success in the last two games in Atlanta was due to our hitting versus their pitching? Much reason to believe will keep any of it going. I mean, are they going to score 28 runs in two games? Yes. I hope so. I hope so. Yeah. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:10:01 Yeah, I mean, some of it was obviously helped by the fact that you didn't have to see Spencer Strider yesterday. He wound up getting scratched. Joey Wentz came in. You know, it's also an early morning game. Who knows when he actually found out that he was going to pitch. So, yeah, you were able to take advantage of that. So that's great. So I'm sure that, you know, at least played a part.

Starting point is 00:10:22 you exploding offensively yesterday. But in general, I mean, this offense should be dominant. You look at the talent in it. They should be capable of putting up five to six runs a game, especially against mediocre to bad pitching. So most of this is, you know, Braves pitching, but that's not to say that the Mariners'

Starting point is 00:10:47 offense was bad or that there's nothing to be excited about. Again, they drew a lot of walks. they hit a lot of home runs they got back to what they do best draw walks hit home runs don't worry about the strikeouts and you can find a way to tack on a run here or there without needing the home run that's great uh and we saw them you know steal some bases and all that so it really didn't feel like they got kind of back to where they they wanted to go and you know the sales start was was rough uh but uh that's that's not terribly unexpected it's Chris sale he's so good yeah i mean it's chris sail and he's thrown 98 again like what yeah

Starting point is 00:11:27 yeah chrisale who sat 94 for most of this year now he's thrown 98 yeah he's a last right yeah they saw the shot to win that game yeah but uh can't believe the braves got him from bond grissom crazy anyways um yeah the red socks didn't want to pay him any more money but uh yeah so i i think mostly it's like in the in the scheme of things, like the Braves pitching was really bad over the last 11 innings of that series. But the Mariners' offense we know is really good. So it's kind of tough to say, is this more pitching or is this more of the offense?

Starting point is 00:12:06 Because it's both. I mean, like, yeah, the Braves walked a bunch of guys, but the Mariners didn't miss the cookies that they got, and then they hit them with damage. They didn't just flip them into left field for singles. They hit them over the wall. So, yeah, it's tough to say, I would say, ultimately. I would say it's probably more about the Braves and they're pitching than anything, but the Mariners have a very talented lineup.

Starting point is 00:12:27 We know this. It was nice to see Josh Naylor hit on the road, even if it was only for a couple of games. And obviously, Julio's on another heater right now as well. So great sign. Wouldn't expect it. They're probably going to get shut out. It's the next three days. But you look at who the Cardinals are throwing out there.

Starting point is 00:12:48 Not exactly a murderer's row of pitchers either. I think the best guy, the guy having the best season that you're going to face is Libertori, which, you know, he's lucky who's got good stuff. So that might be a bit of a trouble, but you're getting McGreevy. And I think Mikolas, so good chance to continue to hit and to score some runs here. But I wouldn't expect them to score, you know, 10 plus runs a game for the rest of this year. Or outscore 13 NFL teams yesterday. With Ryan Wu on the mound tonight, like, yeah, I mean, that's the only thing. too. This is why run differential is a really bad stack guys because of yesterday.

Starting point is 00:13:26 But still fun. So I'll go out on a limine here and say they will not score 18 runs for the rest of the year in a single game. Mr. Mariners, second question of the day is, did we think Cole Young can make the adjustment or will it be best for him to fill a backup role for the remainder of the season? I would put Polo at second base for the rest of the year and then platoon Garver and Canzon and Rayleigh at DH. Young comes in as a late game. Defensive replacement starts here and there, but for the most part, he's on the bench.

Starting point is 00:14:04 Yeah, you're going to have to give him starts at some point because, I mean, as much as we would like Polo to be able to play the field every day, I think we should know that he can't. Like, he's just not physically capable of doing that.

Starting point is 00:14:16 And he's hitting right now, So you really don't want to, you know, mess with him too much and get him out of his groove because he really does lengthen this lineup. Polos had a very underrated season. And he, you know, he exercised that option. So good on him. He's got some control over what happens this offseason. He's earned it. He's certainly earned it.

Starting point is 00:14:37 So you got to be careful there. So I don't think you can run polo out there 19 times in the last 19 games. So I think you're going to have to give Young at least. you know, 10-ish starts down the line. But also Leo Rivas could come into play here. I know he didn't have a good game yesterday. But, you know, again, pretty solid player who has been, you know, pretty much helped you every single time he's been out there.

Starting point is 00:15:02 And he got back-to-back starts, which was nice to see. I'm happy that Dan actually did that. So, you know, you might still see Rivas over Young a couple of times. But you just can't use Young on the bench for the next 19 games. he's going to have to play some. But I do think that Polo, you might ask him to play second base a little bit more. And then on days where Polo might not, you might not want him out there, then it's probably a coin flip between Rebos and Young,

Starting point is 00:15:31 and it depends on the matchup that you're going to see. So, yeah, I think primarily Young's rookie season is now more of a support role than an everyday player. But he is going to have to play a little bit. I mean, there's just no way you can hide him on the bench. for the next 20 days. It's just not going to happen. No, no, no, no. But for the most part, I'm using him as a defensive replacement and occasional start. Like, I'm probably only giving him one to two starts a week right now. I mean, I feel like tonight they're going up against mecalis, right?

Starting point is 00:16:04 McGreevy might be a good spot to give him a start. He's probably not going to face a libertory. And then we'll see what happens. So tonight. But, yeah, he's going to have to, I think probably a start a series. There's six series left. So you give him six starts. and then it's pinch running, you know, defensive replacement, maybe the occasional pinch hitting opportunity in the right situation. But yeah, I think it's more support player than everyday player right now for, for Cole Young. He's just slumping at the wrong time.

Starting point is 00:16:32 All right. We will answer a couple more of your questions here in just a moment. But first a reminder, this episode of the Locked-on Airs podcast is brought to you by Zippix. This episode of the Lockedomeres podcast is brought to you by Zippix toothpicks. Whether you're looking for nicotine satisfaction or an energy boost, Zipix has you covered with their nicotine and caffeine-infused toothpicks. For nicotine users, Zipix provides a discrete way to satisfy cravings and the hand-to-mouth habit without vaping or smoking.

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Starting point is 00:17:34 That's Zipixtoothpix.com. promo code locked on. That's L-O-C-E-D-O-N. Zip more. Smoke less with Zipix toothpicks. And you're listening to the Locked on Marries podcast. it's mailbag Monday let's get back into your questions Tom wants to know out of the other five

Starting point is 00:17:55 AL playoff teams assuming the standings and as they are today which team is the toughest on paper for the Mariners which is the easiest to me it's the Red Sox or the Blue Jays the Red Sox because they can run they can really really run with like Duran and Raphaela

Starting point is 00:18:14 and then the Blue Jays because they just don't strike out and I'm a big concern about how the Mariners pitching staff stacks up against them, particularly on the road? Yeah. I don't know. I don't think the Yankees are a particularly good matchup for the Mariners at Yankees Stadium in particular.

Starting point is 00:18:34 But then again, who is a good matchup for the Yankees at Yankee Stadium? But yeah, I think probably the toughest matchup for me would be Boston, just because of the athleticism, the defense. They do have pitching concerns, sure. So obviously, again, nobody in the American League should scare you. Like, could the Mariners win series against any of these teams? Absolutely, they could. Would it shock anybody if they beat the Red Sox at Fenway Park, you know, in the best of three?

Starting point is 00:19:04 It shouldn't. I mean, maybe a little bit because it's just Fenway, but like you really shouldn't. Seattle's just as talented as them. It's just very specifically. What Seattle doesn't do well are a bunch of the little things, right? They don't hold runners very well. They don't keep guys going from first to third. They don't really hit their cutoff man that well.

Starting point is 00:19:21 They don't tag well. It's just those little tiny things that add up. And so the team that can expose those with their athleticism is the team that's going to give you the hardest matchup. And to me, I think that's Boston. It's for the easiest. I'm tempted to say Detroit. I mean, obviously you have to deal with scubel in game one. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:19:44 You beat them twice. I know, but like, come on. But after that, eh. You know, like it's just not a ton of depth in that rotation. The bullpen isn't as good as it was last year. They've been mediocre over the course of the second half. And, you know, you've proven you can go into their ballpark and beat the, you know what, out of them. So I'm tempted to say Detroit here, but it's probably Houston is probably the easiest matchup.

Starting point is 00:20:15 And again, I say easiest to understand anybody in the American League to beat anybody else. Yes. Yeah. So they could very easily just sweep the Mariners out of the playoffs and Houston, no question about it. But could Seattle do the same to them? Yeah. Yeah, they absolutely could. And, you know, Framber is their ace.

Starting point is 00:20:33 And it's like, you know, Framber either gets God or he gets the Mariners, you know, like there's no in between there. Hunter Brown is tough. I think I'll probably say Detroit just because they kind of don't have the one-two punch of Framber and Hunter Brown. But Houston, I'm not afraid of Houston. Like I'm not afraid of going into Houston and winning games there. They've done it before. They can do it again. It's different to do it in the playoffs where they were 0 and 2 last time.

Starting point is 00:21:01 Campbell wants to know, Jorge Polanco reached his vesting player option. How good and important has he been this season and what kind of contract do you guys think he gets in the off season? When he left Minnesota, you know, he really struggled to adapt to being with a new organization. And obviously part of that was, you know, he was playing hurt and he was trying to get used to hitting in the most hitter suppressant

Starting point is 00:21:26 ballpark, etc, etc. But does he want to do that again? Does he want to go to another, you know, organization and meet a new ball club and meet new teammates and find his way within the structure of that organization?

Starting point is 00:21:41 Does he want to do that again? Or does he feel comfortable in Seattle? Still at the end of the day, I don't think that he's going to take, you know, the $8 million. I think he could go get more or at the very least he can go get more years. I don't think it's going to be a ton more years.

Starting point is 00:22:01 I'm like the max, three. He's probably getting three at most. But it's more like two and maybe an option for a third year. So I don't think that he's going to opt in. However, I do think there is a pretty good chance that he would want to come back. It's just up to the marriage. Do they want to bring him back?

Starting point is 00:22:25 will they have the money to bring him back? Will Jerry Depoto and Justin Hollander be afforded to the money where it makes sense to bring him back if they're also trying to keep Josh Naylor and or a UNE Oswras? Or is just that, you know, is not bringing him back a corner that they ultimately have to cut. But I do think that there is reason to think that Jorge would want to come back. Because now he, you know, he seems like he's comfortable here. He's figured out how to hit in Seattle. And again, he's, you know, in the past already strong. struggled to, you know, go to a different situation and fit in immediately.

Starting point is 00:23:00 I'm not sure what the Mariners are going to do with Polo because, like, like hypothetically, let's say Polo can get $12 million a year, right? Which coming off the year he's coming off of. Yeah. Probably about right. Okay. I mean, cool, but he's really shouldn't play second base. we know he can't play third base.

Starting point is 00:23:25 So he's kind of a first base, DH only guy. And so it's like, okay, well, we bring Naylor back. Then he's a DH only guy. And it's like, okay, but now we have to live with Randy being the left fielder for 150 some odd games, which is fine. But like you'd like not to be, but that might not be a factor. But like, let's say it's going to cost $12 million, right?

Starting point is 00:23:45 And obviously, you know, if it's four years, you're probably out. If it's two years, that probably gives you more. The Mariners are not going to be like, hey, we said, he's going to be the second basement and Cole Young can go back to true play. That's not going to happen. Like Cole Young is going to be the primary second basement next year. And we know Polo can't play third. So you basically do the Mariners want to do something they hate to do, which is give, you know, really good money for them to a full-time DH. They tried that two years ago with Mitch Garver. They've actively avoided it before that.

Starting point is 00:24:15 Are they willing to do that again? I don't know. But I do think that polo is probably going to get somewhere between 10 to 12 million bucks. I think he's because it's not a great free agent class, I think he's got a shot to get two guaranteed years and maybe some kind of third, you know, vesting option type of thing going. So it's tough to say. I mean, Polo has been really good this year,

Starting point is 00:24:38 a 125 WRC plus, but it gives you nothing defensively. He actually hurts you defensively. Do you want to give that to a DH-only type of bat? I mean, do you really trust this year? or because it just as much reason to trust last year as you do this year for this version of polo. The knees have been a problem all year for him. He's had a couple of long, you know, not IL stints, but he missed time for long stretches of the season without going on the IL.

Starting point is 00:25:07 There's what? For the first two months, he really couldn't hit right-handed. So it's just kind of one of those things. The medicals are going to come into play here. How do the knees look? You know, we know he's got hamstring issues. in the past. So it is risky to sign polo to a multi-year deal. But if you're polo, you're not taking one and eight million. You can do more than that. Even if, and even if you don't, like, let's say

Starting point is 00:25:28 hypothetically you end up settling on one and eight million, why wouldn't you go out to the market and just see what you can get, knowing that you could always go back. It's a very small gamble for him to go out to the market and see what he can get. So ultimately, I think he declines that option. I wouldn't be surprised at all of these back with Seattle, but also I wouldn't be too surprised if Seattle just looks at it and is like, you know, it's not bad, but it's just we think we can do better with the money or we can spread out the money a little bit better, get more athletic. We'll see what they want to do. And again, a big part of this is who's the GM? I don't know.

Starting point is 00:26:06 That might change things. So, yeah, all in all, I think he declines. I would say the odds that he's back are pretty close to 50-50. And I know it's kind of a cop out like, oh, he either is back or he's not. but like no when you put them up against the other 30 teams or the other 29 teams in Seattle has a 50% chance to resign him that means other teams have you know like a 5% chance so I think more likely than not the Mariners find a way to keep Polo here next year but I wouldn't say it's a guarantee yeah so right now it's a six million dollar player option

Starting point is 00:26:37 because he got to 450 plate appearances that goes up to eight with 550 played appearances so yeah he's not taking that but would he probably not get me. Yeah, yeah, no. But I think the ball is ultimately in the Mariners court here. He might even be willing to take a little bit less just to stay. But could you get him for like two and 20 where the mayors want to do that? Like two and 20 and an option for a third year.

Starting point is 00:27:09 Would the mirrors want to do that for a full-time DH? Or for mostly a full-time DH at the very least? I don't know. We'll see. again it depends on you know how much money is this front office going to get and do they want to keep both josh naler and a yohenio swaras do they only want to keep one of those guys are they going to move on from both of them and try to do something else at third base and first base everything with this upcoming off season hinges on those two guys and what they want to do with them all right tom wants to know how much help could gregory santo be the if you got 2023 gregory Santos, it could be season altering. Yeah. Because that guy's a high leverage arm and gives you multiple, you know, three high leverage

Starting point is 00:28:01 ritees, maybe four if you count bizardo and obviously spire in the back end. So it could be, you know, season altering. Mariners, Gregory Santos, no idea. He just, he's thrown like eight innings for you. I don't know how you could possibly have any idea, how much he could help. he's certainly not a lock to be on any kind of playoff roster, which is saying something, considering how bad the Mariners like six,

Starting point is 00:28:28 seven, eight guys are in the bullpen. But yeah, I just, I don't have any feel for Gregory Santos right now. It's kind of one of those I have to believe it, or I have to see it to believe it type of situations. And it's just tough to envision me seeing it in a handful of, you know,

Starting point is 00:28:44 maybe a handful of outings at the end of the year where hopefully he's not so bad that he accidentally cost you games that you desperately need. So I have no idea how to answer that question. All right. That is going to do it for our show. Thank you so much for joining us here on the Lockdown Marrars podcast. Or Colby Patnaud. I'm Tadeng Gzalas.

Starting point is 00:29:02 Be sure you give us a follow on Twitter at L.O. underscore mirrors. You can follow me at Tading Gzalas and Colby at C-Pat 11. That's C-Pat-1-1. We're also on Blue Sky. You can follow me at TDG, Colby at MLB-Colby in the show at Lockdown Mariner's. You can also find us on Instagram at Lockdown Mariner's. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day.

Starting point is 00:29:18 and we'll see you next time. Peace.

Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - How Many Wins Do the Mariners Need to Get in the Playoffs and Take the AL West?

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