Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - How Much of a Payroll Increase Can We Realistically Expect From the Mariners in 2025?

Starting point is 00:00:00 What is a realistic expectation for the mayor's payroll this winter? We'll answer that and more coming up here on the locked on mirrors podcast. Colby, hit it. You are locked on mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day. Ahoy, sailors. It is Monday, September 23rd, 2024.

Starting point is 00:00:27 This is Tiding Azales and Colby Patnaud for the Lockdown Marers podcast. Part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day. on today's show we'll be opening up the mailbag like we do here every single Monday and answer some of your mariners questions but before we do that shout out to our title sponsor today booking.com booking dot yeah the right stay can make you a fan of any city even your baseball even your baseball book today on booking.com Book today on booking.com, the official accommodation partner, a major league baseball, get the booking.com app today. And if you want to hear from me and Colby, even more and help support the show, check out our Patreon. The link is in the description. And you can sign up for a free seven day trial. All right.

Starting point is 00:01:06 Let's kick off Mailbag Monday here with a question from CJ who wants to know. What do you think ownership is likely going to do with payroll in the off season? Expand, retract, or stay right where they are except added. arbitration pay. I know what we all want, but what's your gut feeling? So, CJ, this is a pretty lengthy discussion that we're going to have to have here. It's a multi-layered discussion here. And before we actually answer your question directly, we kind of have to see where the mariners just are in general, right?

Starting point is 00:01:44 So Colby, where are the mariners at before heading into arbitration? Right. So the Mariners right now have seven players under guaranteed contracts for 2025. Those seven players are going to account for roughly $95 million in payroll. They have eight players who will be making the league minimum, who are currently on the 28-man roster. They are going to be making roughly $6 million, $6 to $7 million. Some will make a little bit more than the league minimum because of performance incentives and all that stuff, but they're all going to be making less than, you know, they're all going to be making less than a million dollars this upcoming year.

Starting point is 00:02:28 And so before we get into the 12 arbitration players that the Mariners have, they're at about a hundred million, somewhere between 100 to 103-ish million dollars. We'll just go with 100 since it's a nice round number. And then obviously, you know, players on the 40 man, they're making the minimum salary too. there's going to be, I don't know how many extra players on the minimum, but we can safely assume that there's going to be at least probably another $10 million just filling out the back end of your 40 man. So I think a real safe place to put it is that there are about 110.

Starting point is 00:03:06 Now, that's if Mitch Hanigar opts into a $17 million player option, which he's going to do. And that's assuming that the Mariners opt out Polanco's $12 million option, which I think at this point is safe to assume as well. So I think overall, you know, with the 40 man and, and all that, I think the 40 man payroll as they enter this winter before arbitration is at about 110 million would be my, my estimate. So that's already a pretty significant chunk of what their payroll was this year. Spottrack has them at $147.6 million in 2024 payroll. So 110, that's a lot, right? You got 37-ish million dollars left before you reach where you were at this year, essentially.

Starting point is 00:03:55 So now let's go down the list of arbitration-eligible players. Which guys do we think they're actually going to tender a contract to, and how much are those guys going to cost? Yeah, so the arbitration eligible players are Josh Rojas, Sam Haggardi, Randy Rosa Rana, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Jackson Co, are Austin Vow, Trent Thornton. Matt Brash, Taylor Sossato, J.T. Sharkwa, and Josh Fleming, who I don't even know if he's still on the roster or not. Sure. But he's not on the 40, man. So we'll toss Fleming off the list here for now. Sure.

Starting point is 00:04:32 So Rojas is probably going to make between $5 to $6 million next year. I think that's a pretty easy non-tender. If you can get them back here for $2 million, fine, whatever. But five or six is a lot for a guy who is just not. an everyday player. You already have that guy on your roster and you're making a lot less. So Ross is probably out. I think Hagridi coming off the Achilles injury, he's probably not getting, he'll probably

Starting point is 00:04:57 only make about a million dollars in arbitration. But it's probably a guy that I could see them wanting to bring back as a non-raster invitee and a minor league deal. I think they'd be interested in bringing Hagridi back. So you might see him in spring training, but it's not going to be with a major league contract. CoR, same thing, injury related. Trent Thornton probably only going to make about two and a half million dollars at most, maybe three. But again, trying to skim some money here.

Starting point is 00:05:27 Thornton, or sorry, Saucato, probably only going to make about like a million two. He's on the borderline whether or not you want to bring him back. So start looking at guys who are likely to get tender, Randy or Rosaneda, probably going to make about $12 million bucks next year in our position, give or take. Logan Gilbert is super two. So he's in his second year of RIP. He made $4 million this year, probably looking at about $8ish million, $6 to $8, somewhere in that range.

Starting point is 00:05:57 George Kirby, I think he's pretty clear. He's also super two, very similar career to Logan Gilbert at this stage. So he's probably going to get around $4 million as well. So just those two guys alone, or those three guys alone right there is about $25 million for those three guys. and that takes you very close to what you're already at.

Starting point is 00:06:19 Both is an interesting one. He's probably going to make about a million, five, two million. Assuming there's not a in his contract makes him ineligible for arbitration. Sometimes that gets thrown in. Both has been really good. So you might want to bring him back. Matt Brash, because he didn't pitch this year, you know, he's kind of an interesting arb case.

Starting point is 00:06:42 It might be about $2 million. bucks you're probably going to want to bring him back anyways and then j t shawah's probably going to be about two million so i think when you add up all these arb guys who are almost certainly getting tendered a contract you're looking at 12 20 24 26 about 30 million dollars between these arb guys and that would bring you up to about 140 to 145 somewhere in that range yeah these are our guesses these aren't with any kind of certainty whatsoever. So it might be a little more, a little less.

Starting point is 00:07:15 So I think saying you're going to be in that 140 to 145 range for your 40 man entering the winter is a pretty reasonable assumption. We'll get our projections from MLB trade rumors here in about what a month, I think. I think they usually come out like a couple days after the regular season end. So it might be a week or so. Oh, okay. So it might be a week. So we'll go over those and usually those are very accurate.

Starting point is 00:07:38 They have been pretty much all the time. Yeah, they're usually within about 10% either direction. All right. So let's just say that our projections are right, though, for the sake of this exercise, right? I agree with all the guys that you said they would tender and non-tender. So let's call it 140 to 145. Again, they're at 147 this year. So, I mean, they have to increase at least a little.

Starting point is 00:08:12 little bit, right? You would think. Right. Well, the thing they could try to do. Well, first of all, like, let's look at it. From 2021 to 2022, they increased their payroll about $23 million that year. Then from 2022 to 2020, they increased it by about $20 million. Unfortunately, this last year, the total increase, heading into opening day was just over $3 million. And with the in season additions, it ends up being an increase of just about $11 million. They've gone from 23rd to 21st to 18th in payroll. This year they're going to be about 17, 16.

Starting point is 00:09:00 So if they follow on that track, you know, it's an increase of, it's basically stay the same or $20 million, like somewhere in that range, which would push them up to about, you know, 165-ish, but they don't have any revenue this year for them playoff games. We don't know what the TV money looks like or anything like that. We don't know season tickets.

Starting point is 00:09:23 We can be rest assured, though, that ownership will pretend like they just don't have the money to spare because they didn't make the postseason because they spent some extra money in the, you know, whatever. So my assumption would be is that Jerry Depoto will be told that payroll will increase. and that is the line that Jerry will use to the media when he talks to them after the season. But my assumption would be is that that increase is probably going to be less than $20 million. That is what I would assume. Obviously our hope is that they look at that and they go, hey, screw it. Like here's $40 million. Go spend $185.

Starting point is 00:10:01 Go get back up to where we were when, you know, 2017, 2018, when we were when we had all these veterans and we were trying to win or whatever. like go get up to that 180 mark, right, which is the bare minimum. I mean, again, where the Mariners should be is they are in the 12th-ish biggest media market, they should have the 12th highest payroll roughly, which is right now about $190 million. Yeah. So back in 2018, which is the peak of their payroll over, you know, under John Stanton and Chris Larson and that ownership group. So they were at 160 that they finished 10th that year in payroll, right?

Starting point is 00:10:38 10th now in 24 belongs to the Giants at $206.5 million. Right. Yeah, the Mariners should be operating in the range of

Starting point is 00:10:54 you know, even if you want to be generous to them, to this ownership group, they should be operating at around $180 million minimum in these years where they have a real shot like when the division and make playoff runs. They should be operating at 180 minimum, but it should really be. be closer to $200 million, considering where they rank in market size.

Starting point is 00:11:14 Yeah. So do I think they're going to get there? No, not even close. I don't think they're going to try. My guess, my best guess is that the Mariners are going to, or the front office is going to be given a budget, a 40-man budget of about $160 million. That would be my guess. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:11:31 Which is only $13 million more than what you have right now on the books. So 12th this year belongs to the St. Louis. Cardinals at $175.9 million. So we'll call it $176, right? So to be in line with your market, you have to spend at least $176 million on your ball club. Yeah. My guess they come about $20 million shorter.

Starting point is 00:11:55 That would be my guess. So my expectation here to answer your question after all this discussion, C.J, is that I think there will be a slight increase because they just have to. to you, but it's an increase that's going to be small enough where they're still going to have to probably trade Luis Castillo or Mitch Garver or Mitch Hanning or maybe all three or at least two of the three to create more flexibility for themselves. Right. It's it's kind of setting up like they're going to have to make some, a E.

Starting point is 00:12:29 E. E. E. E. Hennio Suarez or Jared Kellnick, Marco Gonzalez, another, at least one of those trades. Kind of the issue with that this winter will be though, like, okay, who? like who's making enough money that that's significant enough. And it's Luis Castillo who has no trade clause. You're not getting anything for Garber. You're not getting anything for Hanager unless you're taking on similar salary back. So you're probably not going to save much there. So yeah, there's just not a J.P.

Starting point is 00:12:55 Crawford, I love a million bucks. Okay, go find a shortstop this winter. Like, you know what I mean? So it'll be harder for them to do that this winter than it was last winter, is my point. Yeah, absolutely. Now, we've had a very lengthy discussion about the Luis Castillo situation and how that can potentially help you do two things at once and shed some payroll and also maybe address a need, maybe even two on the major league roster. So, you know, if you want to hear about that, if you're curious about that, I forget specifically the episode. I'll look here in between segments and let you know which episode was that we talked about that.

Starting point is 00:13:35 and you can go back and listen to it. But for now, we are going to answer more of your questions in just a moment. First, though, this episode of the Lockdown Airs podcast is brought to you by booking.com and fandul. Explore those U.S. cities you always secretly wanted to learn more about. With hotels, bed and breakfast, vacation rentals, resorts, and so much more on booking.com, you might just find your perfect stay even in your baseball rival city during the postseason. Even an Orioles fan or a Guardians fan can have a good time in New York no matter what happens on the diamond this October. You can drown your playoff woes with a New York slice or celebrate advancing to the next round with a delicious chopped cheese,

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Starting point is 00:14:54 $200 in bonus bets guaranteed when you place your first $5 bet. That's fandul.com. And you're listening to the Locked on Marriss podcast. You can catch all the action between the M. and the Astros tonight on the Marrers hometown broadcast with SiriusXM via the SXM app. All you have to do to find that is search the word mariners. So CJ, who of course asked us our question here that we talked about in the first segment about payroll. If you haven't heard our discussion about Luis Castillo and anyone else that might be curious about this as well and the possibility of trading him and addressing a need and also shutting some payroll in the process, all that good stuff.

Starting point is 00:15:39 We did that about, it says nine days ago here in an episode titled, Could the Merritt Trade Luis Castillo and J.P. Crawford this off season? So if you haven't heard that discussion yet, you can go over to that episode and check it out. I'll also link it in the description of this episode. All right. Let's get into the rest of your questions here. D. Panky wants to know. JP this season, Home versus left-handed pitching, 139 WRC Plus.

Starting point is 00:16:05 Away versus left-handed pitching, 154 WRC plus. versus right-handed pitching 125 WRC plus home versus right-handed pitching 19 WRC plus one is not like the others thoughts on struggles versus right-handed pitching at home selling out for power batters eye i don't have an answer for you right because this is new this is very very new he has never struggled this much against righties specifically at home really anywhere but specifically at home He has never struggled this much against Ritey's. 2022, he had a 93 WRC plus. That's the worst of his recent years, right?

Starting point is 00:16:49 Since he essentially became a starter in Seattle full time. Right. So 19 is baffling. And I don't think it's as simple as like, oh, it's the batterer's eye or whatever because the batters eye was the same last year. It was the same the year before that. And he was fine. Right. He's also been fine against lefties at home.

Starting point is 00:17:09 Yeah. So I don't, I'd like to, first of all, I don't even know if JP's aware of these numbers. I'm sure he's aware of like, it's been tough. Like I'm sure, you know, they're hitters. They get it. They may not know the specific numbers, but yeah, he would tell you, yeah, it's been a real struggle at home is probably what he feels. But yeah, I don't know what the answer is. I am a little tired of the batter's eye just getting the blame for everything automatically when we don't know that that's.

Starting point is 00:17:36 And I think, and I think they're going to change it. So we'll find out. Right, right, right. So like they're going to change it. So at the very least if you're like a batterer's eye is the biggest issue with the Mariners, well, then I guess they're winning in the World Series next year. But, you know, it's to me, it's a convenient excuse. I'd like to know what JP's excuse for it is.

Starting point is 00:17:54 It's with the difference that's stark, right? It's kind of, is it just like monumental bad luck? What's interesting is we knew last year was an outlier, right? He wasn't going to put up a 138 WRC plus or whatever again. So what's interesting about this year is now we get to look at this and be like, okay, is this an outlier too? Like is this an outlier on the extreme end? Because J.P. Crawford, even when he's been not the all-star he was last year, Crawford has been a league average bat, pretty much his entire career, right around 100. And this year, he's not been that or anything really all that close to it for any consistent stretch of time.

Starting point is 00:18:32 So, you know, is this year just an outlier year in the opposite direction? So I don't know. Is it fair to expect JP to return to some kind of normalcy, some kind of normal level next year? It might be. It might also be, you know, a devastating mistake to just assume that J.P. Crawford is going to return to anything he used to be. So, yeah, JP is such an enigma. He's such an interesting dude that it's very, very difficult to really pinpoint struggles this year, why he exploded last year, and what version of J.P. Crawford you should expect next year.

Starting point is 00:19:09 Marley Corrin wants to know how many relievers on this roster will be back next season. It's an interesting question. This roster, like this 28 man. Yeah. Taylor, Munoz, both. Is Munoz back? Probably. Is that a way that they potentially address a need this off season?

Starting point is 00:19:29 Could be. But he's only making $3 million. So you're not addressing a payroll need. it would have to be all about the player you acquire back. Yeah. And Munoz is not a guy. You should attach to a Garver or you're not doing another Edwin Diaz trade. You're far past that.

Starting point is 00:19:45 Although the Diaz trade, honestly, was Diaz for Donnan and Helmick. And then the Canoe part of that actually didn't lower the value at all. You decided to take on some other contracts to make that work. But whatever, right, you understand. You're not attaching Munoz to Garver to get him off your books. Yeah, yeah. I would say right now I bet pretty heavily that Munoz is back. Taylor is going to be back.

Starting point is 00:20:12 I think another guy you could trade. It's possible. Yeah, the safe bet here is that none of these guys are coming back because it's a bullpen and you trade bullpen guys willy-nilly if you can get somebody you think is a viable, you know, starting pitcher or like a viable everyday player. You trade a bullpen guy for that guy pretty much every time. But based on who's on the roster right now, I would say Snyder, Munoz, both.

Starting point is 00:20:37 I'm going to throw that out there. And then Taylor, that would be my guess on the fourth. And then obviously Santos, but he's not on the roster right now. Yeah, Santos, brash eventually. Right. Yeah. All right. So we are going to answer more of your questions here in just a moment.

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Starting point is 00:21:57 All right, we've got a couple of questions remaining here on Mailbag Monday. This one comes from Bryce. Who wants to know, curious if y'all think Luke Rayleigh is a viable option as the primary first baseman in 2025 and what scenario would have to play out for that to be acceptable one yes i do think that luke raleigh can be a viable option to be the first basement in twenty twenty five uh two uh the scenario in which that would be acceptable as you said involves the merrars going out and signing or trading for another outfielder but like if for example right if the guy you're talking about is max kepler and luke rale's your first baseman

Starting point is 00:22:36 Yeah, and I'm a Kepler guy, but he's just not like a big hitter that, you know, makes up for, I mean, it really comes down to do you think Luke Rayleigh has like the power? Because we know he's not going to hit lefties, right? We feel pretty good about that. He's not going to hit lefties with any regularity. So you kind of have a platoon first base situation there. So in order to counteract that, don't you kind of need the outfielder you acquire who's also going to DH to be kind of a plus bat? So to me it's like either you go get like Christian Walker and he's the first basement and Rayleigh is the outfield edition, so to speak. Sure.

Starting point is 00:23:12 And if you're not going to do that and you want Rayleigh to be the first baseman, fine. I think you got to go get like Santander. Like you got to pack some real thunder with your outfield edition. I think that's what makes it okay. Santander does Tyler O'Neill fit in that category as well? It's tough to trust to stay healthy. And obviously the strikeouts are a big thing. but he's i mean in that scenario randy rosanano's basically your full-time dh at that point because

Starting point is 00:23:39 i mean o'neill's still a good defender uh but uh yeah i think it's like santan dare like you can make it it could be kepler but if it's going to be like a not a soft but like just a solid hitting outfielder then i think all of a sudden the conditions shifts to well what are you thrown out there at third base because i don't think like rayley kepler and like you need to add more slug. I just I don't think that it can be like Rayleigh Kepler and then you're just rolling back Rojas at third base. Like to me that that's a missed opportunity because I would just rather put Rayleigh in the outfield and go get a power hitting first basement. It really can hit for power but it's just he's

Starting point is 00:24:17 probably going to hit for 20, 25 home runs instead of 30 35 because he's just not going to contribute much against lefties. So he's only going to get 450 plate appearances as opposed to the 600. Right. Right. And then you know when you're going up against lefties. I mean, Dillamore. Donovan Solano. I mean, he can really only play first base, but sure. I mean,

Starting point is 00:24:43 I will just keep hammering home. Donovan Solano, the guy who's going to get 150 plate appearances. You know what's going to happen. He's going to sign with Seattle finally, and then he's going to suck. Like, the cliff will probably come. Yeah, the guy that's hit like 280 consistently for like the last six years is going to come to Seattle. He's going to hit like 2.10.

Starting point is 00:25:02 he's gonna a j pollock it yeah i mean donovan slano all he does is it like since 2019 right here's his we're not turning this into a donovan slot just listen just listen just listen 330 326 280 2802 287 this year and i hear a decline from 330 to 287 he went from 282 last year it's 287 this year so actually he's not really getting better he's and his slugging went up his slugging went up his slugging went up It's like it went up from 399. It's like he went up from 391 to 414. BSUHawk once a down. 211 for us next year.

Starting point is 00:25:40 Awesome. BSU Hawk wants to know, does Laz have a shot at making the opening day roster? How about Harry Ford? Trying to think through how we can fill the DH spot, given we won't have any money to spend. This kind of goes hand in hand with the conversation that we just had. No,

Starting point is 00:25:57 you're probably going to rotate guys through the DH. I had someone asked me this over the weekend, actually. whether the Mariners going to do at DH. And basically my answer was, I don't expect them to go into this offseason, like how they went into the last off season where they were targeting for Ace Salaire,

Starting point is 00:26:11 and they ended up signing Mitch Garver. And it was basically like, yeah, we're open at least. Maybe it was just straight up. We want a full-time DH. But at the very least, they were open to having a full-time DH. And they ended up with one. I don't think they're going to go into this off-season with that kind of approach again.

Starting point is 00:26:29 because especially with the outfield situation and the fact that Luke Braley can play in the outfield and first base as well, they have some flexibility in that regard. And I think they're going to end up in a spot where they're probably just rotating everyone through there. So no Las Montes isn't going to be on the roster, not even close.

Starting point is 00:26:47 Like he's not going to be on the roster at any point in 2025. Las Montes took about a month to figure out how to hit high A pitching. Yeah. There's a 0% chance he's making the, leap from high A straight to the big leagues. Not happening. I'd be a little bit surprised if he started next year in double A. I think he's probably going back to high A for at least a little while.

Starting point is 00:27:11 So no shot there. Harry Ford, maybe, but A, both of these guys have to survive the off season, not getting traded, which is not a for sure thing. But, you know, Ford, he's going to get on base. Defensively, he's fine. He's fine as a catcher. like it's not going to kill you at the very least. Is he going to hit for any power?

Starting point is 00:27:35 Does he have the hit tool, like the actual batting average tool to handle big league pitching straight out of AA? No. And I think the fact that he didn't make the jump to AAA at any point this year kind of tells you where the Mariners feel like Harry Ford is. So I think he'll get more of a look this upcoming spring, assuming he's still here. I think he'll get more of a look. I think he'll probably start next year in AAA.

Starting point is 00:27:59 would be my guess, but I would say Ford has a better chance than Las, but I would be pretty shocked if he is the opening day backup catcher because that's the other thing too. How much playing time can you get this guy if Cal Raleigh is the primary catcher, right? Wouldn't you rather, if you still think he can catch and you still think he has value as a catcher, you kind of want him to do it a little bit, right? And if he's only going to do it once a week at the major league level, doesn't make a lot of sense. Go send him down to Tacoma or we can do it two, three, four times a week and still get at bats at D.H. and maybe some left field like they've done in Arkansas this year.

Starting point is 00:28:30 So no, neither of those guys are going to start the year on the opening day roster. Anybody, any of your farm hands are going to make the opening day roster out of spring training next year. It'll be Cole Young. Yeah. Yeah, Ford still has some growing to do. All right. That is going to do it for our show. But before we get out of here, a reminder that Lockdown has launched the first ever national sports 24-7 streaming channel on YouTube.

Starting point is 00:28:55 And now it's also available on Amazon Fire TV. the free Fire TV channels app. Locked-on Sports Today is here for you 24-7 covering the top sports stories of the day with the local experts of Locked-on, plus our national shows covering every league. Find Locked-on Sports Today now available on the free Fire TV channels app. Thank you so much for joining us

Starting point is 00:29:11 here on the Lockdown Marrers podcast for Colby Patnode. I'm Tiding-A-Zallis. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at LO-U-U-U-Urinsk. You can follow me at Tiding-A-Las and Colby at C-T-E-E-1-1. You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day and we'll see you next time.

Starting point is 00:29:27 Peace.

Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - How Much of a Payroll Increase Can We Realistically Expect From the Mariners in 2025?

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