Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - How Much Worse Does the Jarred Kelenic Trade Look For the Mariners?

Episode Date: March 11, 2024

It's Mailbag Monday! Ty and Colby answer some of your Mariners questions, including how much worse the already-terrible Jarred Kelenic trade looks following Cole Phillips and Jackson Kowar's injuries, dark horse candidates to make the bullpen, if Luke Raley's slow start in spring is a concern, and more.Ask us questions!Follow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @TyDaneGonzalez | @CPat11Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!RobinhoodRobinhood has the only IRA that gives you a 3% boost on every dollar you contribute when you subscribe to Robinhood Gold. Now through April 30th, Robinhood is even boosting every single dollar you transfer in from other retirement accounts with a 3% match. Available to U.S. customers in good standing. Robinhood Financial LLC (member SIPC), is a registered broker dealer.Amazon Fire TVFire TV recently created Fire TV Channels to deliver a constant supply of the latest videos from your favorite sports brands, all for free. That includes all of us at Locked On and most of the big pro leagues and college conferences as well. To Learn More, visit www.amazon.com/LockedOnFireTV PrizePicksGo to PrizePicks.com/lockedonmlb and use code lockedonmlb for a first deposit match up to $100! eBay MotorsWith all the parts you need at the prices you want, it’s easy to turn your car into the MVP and bring home that win. Keep your ride-or-die alive at EbayMotors.com. Eligible items only. Exclusions apply. eBay Guaranteed Fit only available to US customers.GametimeDownload the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDON for $20 off your first purchase. FanDuelNew customers, join today and you’ll get TWO HUNDRED DOLLARS in BONUS BETS if your first bet of FIVE DOLLARS or more wins. Visit FanDuel.com/LOCKEDON to get started. FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

A little over two weeks remain until opening day. Let's kick the week off by opening up the mailbag here on the Locked-on Marriss podcast. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners, your daily Seattle Mariners podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Oh, hoi, sailors. It is Monday, March 11, 2024. This is Tadding Gazzalus and Colby Patnaud for the Locked-on-Marras podcast.

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This is Mailbag Monday, the show where we'll answer your Mariners questions, and we're going to start here with Christopher, who wants to know, thoughts on the Jared Kelnick deal. Now that both of the players the Mariners acquired will need Tommy John surgery. So, of course, a couple weeks ago, we found out that Cole Phillips needs a second Tommy John surgery. He's undergone that already. Now Jackson Coar follows suit as a couple of days ago. after a really impressive first couple of outings down in Arizona.

So we've talked about this. The Kelnick deal optically was terrible. But do you feel any worse about it now that we know about Kowar and Phillips, Colby? No. Why is that? No. That's my entire answer.

No, because no. I'm not relitigating this again. It was always a bad trade. We knew. it was always a bad trade. The Seattle Mariners knew it was a bad trade, but unfortunately it was a trade that they felt they needed to do to clear up the now, I know, stolen, let's call it, space under in payroll that they needed to go out and have the

office season they wanted. So, yeah, unfortunately, that trade was always about what they were giving up, what they were getting rid of. And that was the Marco contract and that was the white contract. track and that was more valuable than getting something of value for Jared Keldnick. And I think we have come to the realization and basically had it confirmed that the mayors were getting rid of Jared Kallnick regardless. He was not going to be on this team.

Right. This upcoming year, he just, he wasn't a fit in that clubhouse, whatever. Could they have traded him for more than they got if they didn't attach the Marco and Evan White trade to him? Yeah. I mean, almost certainly. But, you know, they didn't. Because, again, it was not about just maximizing value for Jared Kelnick.

It was about getting rid of those contracts so that you can go and do anything in the off season. Because if you don't make that trade, you're not doing a lot of the stuff that they were able to do. You might not even have Mitch Garber. You know, you probably don't have Ryan Stanick. Like, you're not, you probably don't have the money to acquire Palanco. Maybe you get either Polanco or Garver. You kind of need both of them, right? So no, the recent injury doesn't change my mind about that trade.

It was bad then. It's bad now. It doesn't get any worse just because one of the guys got hurt. It was always bad. And everybody knows it and everybody acknowledges it. So no, my opinions on the trade haven't changed at all. How could they? Yeah, I think my feelings on the injuries, especially COAR,

because I was pretty high on COAR, more so independent. of the trade. I'm just bummed for Jackson Coar, who it seemed like, you know, maybe the mayor has had actually identified something there, and maybe they were going to be able to get, you know, more out of Coar than anyone else has up to this point. So I'm just, I'm pretty bummed about that. I'm obviously really bummed about Cole Phillips, who's going to be even further removed from having a full season's worth of work. Last time he did that was 2019. It's going to be probably 2026 of the earliest, so he's able to pitch. a full season again.

So yeah, that's just like for me, I'm more so bummed just for the players, right? Because the trade to me could not get any worse than it was. We know what that represented. We know what the driving force of that deal was. It's embarrassing.

It was terrible. It was absolutely rock bottom for this off season. So next question here from on the diamond and end to the deep, who are your dark horse bull? pen arms. Colby? Apparently nobody.

Thank you very much, Mr. Ryan Divish. I had the answer. What did Divish do? And I had the answer. I'm not telling you I had a answer. I had the answer, like the correct answer.

Right, right. And then Divish went ahead and he posted a video of Tyson Miller throwing a bullpen. Baby Seawald, as they're calling. Yes. With the attachment that the Mariners are really excited about him, and how he's bought into their philosophy, their system, their whatever style. Yeah.

The Brash and Santos injuries certainly opened the door for somebody we didn't expect to make the opening day bullpen. Now, one of those spots was taken by Ryan Stanik. Still leaves one. And as much as I love Carlos Vargas still do, there are some inconsistencies there. As much as, you know, type buttry has opened eyes this spring and he's looked pretty good. but still some questions there. He still hasn't pitched in the big leagues in four or five years. Jason Miller gives this club something that they don't really have in the bullpen.

He is a weird, funky arm angle guy with multiple breaking balls, pretty nasty breaking balls too, that generates a ton of swing and miss, kind of an average fastball. He throws strikes. He's been in the big leagues for quite a few years, just kind of up and down. He's interesting because he's unique. to what the Mariners have currently in their bullpen. He's not a guy who throws 98. He's not a guy who, you know, comes straight over the top or from high three quarters or anything.

He's a different arm angle with a different, you know, arsenal of pitches to throw out there. He is a different look than most of the other guys in this bullpen. Most of the other guys are sink or slider. And they are three-quarter arm slot guys. Miller is sidearm. He is low, low three quarters at best. He's a sweeping slider, and it's a really nice pitch. You can make guys look pretty bad.

So Tyson Miller is the dark horse. I also went a couple innings the other day in a spring training game. So obviously the Mariners like his ability to cover multiple innings. Like, yeah, I think Miller is probably the guy. And if I had to guess, like, who's going to be on this opening day roster, if I had to project that, I think Miller might be my eighth bullpen guy. over Vargas Really over Vargas

Is there any way those two could coexist in your mind? If you move on from both or Thornton Or I guess if you send down Saucato How much is Voth pitched Quite a bit I've seen them like granted the Mariners have only been on TV like four times But I've seen them pitch twice Okay

Yeah because with how little they've been on TV I've kind of lost track of like who I've seen Who I haven't seen who's pitched who hasn't Like last night I've seen realize like oh yeah we haven't seen edward bazaardo and i remember there was like the whole thing about he's going to be behind in his throwing program but we haven't heard anything else about that not since that's initial report he might be going to the 60 day i'll yeah because like we heard pretty quick about jackson coar but like edward bazaardo like i don't think we even know what the injury is

for him nope i think the answer is miller though and i think that you know butchery and and crable are have been passed in kind of that regard. Vargas could still make it, but like I said, I mean, technically you could send Saucato down. I don't think he can opt out. So you could also just, you know, DFA Thornton or both if you want to add Vargas. But Vargas has an option left. So not a huge deal. Send him down to AAA and see if you can refine that control and command just a little bit.

Do you buy into the Seawald comparisons? Is it time for Tyson Miller to pitch? no i i wouldn't buy those yet it's kind of we my go-to example is always like 2012 i think it was like for fantasy baseball 2012 mike trout had just broken out like in a huge way and and he was like the most valuable player in 2011 or whatever maybe i'm off by here but you know what i'm talking about like his first full season in the big leagues right after he broke out in a major way after having been sent down for like two weeks in April. The talk around the fantasy baseball community was,

who's this year's Mike Trout? And the answer was always there isn't one. Like stop trying to like cram these different players into like the same expectations that these other guys have. I think I see where you're going with us. Like there is no next Paul Seawald. So Paul is unique.

He's different. Tyson Miller is not the next Paul Seawald. He's the only Tyson Miller. Interesting. Interesting. Interpret that however you want. I certainly will. All right. We're going to answer more of your questions in just a moment. But first, a reminder of this episode of the Lockdown Airs podcast is brought to you by Fanduel.

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And you're listening to the Lockdown Merritts podcast. Thank you again for making us your first. Listen and as a reminder, Lockdown has launched the first ever national sports 24-7 streaming channel on YouTube. Lockdown Sports Today is here for you 24-7. covering the top sports stories of the day with the local experts of locked on plus our national shows covering every league get a locked on sports today on youtube and subscribe to the first ever national sports 24 7 streaming channel part of the locked on podcast network your team every day i said this on twitter but i'll say it again on here we're not going to answer any prediction related questions

because we have prediction episodes planned here in the next couple weeks um and i i on that topic i feel like like now's a good time more than ever to tell you guys what else we have going on here between now and opening day. So Colby's going to tell you a little bit more about that. Yeah, obviously opening day is what's 17 days away. For us, that's about 12, 13 shows before opening day. And we're going to follow us pretty much the same outline we did last year. We have a couple more position previews to go over this week. May or may not do an entire episode dedicated to Julio.

I don't know if he's earned it, but whatever. Of course you don't think that. Sure. We're going to spend a whole segment on why Julio shouldn't smile this season. Sure. Yeah, totally. Exactly what I said. So yeah, we're going to do a couple of, we still have a couple of position previews to go over.

We are going to do kind of, typically we do it the week leading up to opening day, but we have our flag player, you know, episode that we do. So we have a team slash MLB award prediction episode that we do. We have, and that will discuss division winners and all that stuff. So we do the prediction episodes like that. We have, let's see, position previews.

We have flag players. We have predictions. We have bold predictions. So we have a lot of like prediction episodes, stuff like that. We have things like swing players for 2024, like who's player, what success, you know, what player success could drastically alter the Mariners path and all that stuff. So a lot of those type of shows where maybe not like rankings and stuff like that, but a lot of like, hey, this is what we think could happen.

Here's what we're predicting to happen. Here's what like if everything goes right, it could happen. We're going to talk about players we like, players we don't like. So like it's pretty standard like what we talked about last year. It's flag players. It's bold predictions. It's, you know, who's our Cy Young pick. It's all that stuff is going to be over the next couple of weeks.

So you guys are going to get plenty of that talk over the next few weeks. And then once opening day gets here, we kind of, that's when we more or less, we flipped a switch from offseason talk to breaking down the latest game and all that fun stuff. So, yeah, we're getting back into kind of a more normal schedule where everything's kind of, you know, what you guys know, what we're going to talk about on a day-to-day basis. So I'm excited to get there. It can sometimes be like a grind once we get in CIS.

But it's nice. It's nice to know what we're going to talk about on a day-to-day basis. And we're also going to continue Mailbag Mondays. So don't worry about that. We got a couple more of those before opening day as well. And then, you know, once we get closer to the deadline fan fiction Friday, we'll come back. All that good stuff as well. But yeah, when you guys.

Right. Absolutely. Yeah. But when you guys ask like, hey, how many games are the Marin is going to win this season and all that stuff? Hopefully that clears up why we're not answering those questions here on Mailbag Monday. All right. let's get back into your questions. We got one here from Sean. How are the Modesto nuts going to navigate having so many short stops on the roster?

How do you develop them all effectively? So Colby, as the man who once famously said, who cares about the Modesto nuts? I'm going to ask you, how do the nuts handle having all these short stops that they're supposed to have on their roster? I don't care. Who cares about the Modesto nuts? So I'm assuming pretty consistent from you.

Sure. I mean, do I want to get a Modesto Nuts hat? Sure. Who doesn't? Go Nuts. Go Nets. Always. So, yeah, I'm assuming the question is asking, like, I'm assuming that the question, was

Sean who asked the question? Yeah, yeah. I'm assuming that Sean is under the impression that the Modesto Nuts opening day roster will have Colt Emerson, Feldon, Celestine, and probably type would be what I'm assuming you're assuming, Sean. My question is, why are you assuming that all three of those guys are going to start the year in Modesto?

Because sticking Tai Pete or Felman down in extended spring training makes a lot of sense. Those are two very young players who don't need to go straight to Modesto right away. Are you assuming that Colt Emerson has no shot to start the year in Everett? Maybe Felman-Selson has a shot to start in Everett. like they're very high on both of those guys. So maybe that's a possibility. But if all three do end up on Modesto,

it's not that big of a deal because the important thing is, is the at bats, right? How do you get those three guys at bats? Easy. One play short, one plays second, one plays third, one plays third, one plays third, one play short.

Like, you just get them there at bats. That's the most important things. Ground ball, stuff like that, working at shorts up. A lot of that can be done pregame and just, you know, getting reps in general.

But the live, seeing the live pitch. That's the big that's the big deal here. How do you get those guys to see the live pitching enough live pitching to start to develop them? It's pretty simple. You have them play out of position, out of position. And for somebody like Emerson, who's probably headed a third base eventually anyways, maybe you just make that decision now. He still plays some short. But, you know, I think Emerson is probably destined for third base. I think Thai Pete, I think most people have seen him probably destined for the outfield. So you'll probably see them play a little bit of those positions. But the important thing here is getting those guys at bats. against live arms, you can easily accomplish that. Don't worry about how they divvy up, you know, innings played at shortstop. Worry about are those three guys getting the at-bats they need? And the answer is yes, because they'll move guys around as needed. So if we are to assume that they all start in Modesto, which I'm not going to assume,

I think it's probably the safest bet, but you never know. But if they all start in Modesto, I'm not worried about it. They'll all get plenty of bat-bats. All three will be in the lineup pretty consistently for most of the year. I would imagine for Modestone. It's only really a headache or whatever you want to call it until Emerson ends up in, you know, Everett or maybe even Felman ends up in Everett. And I don't anticipate that taking all that long, to be perfectly honest.

So we'll see what the assignments are. That's always fun when we get the minor league assignment rosters. But it's not an issue. You just find a way to get these guys in the lineup and get them at bats. That's the important part. by the way I just realize which is absolutely silly because you and I have been in this room

together for like the last hour your lighting is fixed I'm sure a lot of people care how did you get rid of the redness I don't know did it just turn on the camera today and here we are uh by the way Louisie Harris short hopped Thai France at first base

but France was able to handle it oh no oh no JD Davis is out there there. Oh, boy. Oh, brother. Yeah. By the way, no JD Davis questions today. I mean, I haven't really got released. Yeah, but still, I put out like a reminder, like a couple hours beforehand, like once the news is out there. Yeah. Logan looks good, by the way. There we go. All right. Sion Gilbert. Tyler wants to know, what do you make of Luke Rayleigh's slow start? Any merit to adding a guy like Tommy Fam at this point or wait and see? I'm not too

concerned about it. Just like I'm not too excited about. I do not care. Right. Just like I'm not too, you know, overly excited about anyone's success this spring. I'm not overly concerned about anyone's struggles this spring. You know, guys are working on things. Guys get off to slow starts. I mean, we're talking about literally a handful of of bats at most for all these guys, right? Jorge Polanco is not going to hit 500 for the entire season, right? And Luke Rayleigh is not going to hit, you know, 067 or whatever it is. right now for the whole season. Maybe he says the Colton Wong lover.

Right. Out of the two of us, I'm the Colton Wong lover. That's right. Yeah. But yeah, no, it's not concerning. Nor is it like super exciting. Like to me it's more exciting when you see like Cole Young hit the go, you know, the opposite field double against like a legit big league lefty.

Like that's exciting. Yeah. When, you know, Luke Rayleigh goes 0 for 2 against, you know, a number four starter on March 10th. I'm not, I'm not panicking. The mayor's having really thrown out, the mayor's having really gotten their starter, like a normal amount of reps yet for them.

Like today is the closest we've come to an opening day lineup by far. So, no, I'm not worried about, you know, what he's doing in spring training. I don't care about what your numbers are. They're pretty meaningless. And honestly, because I can't watch most of the at-bats, thank you very much.

Right. It's kind of hard to know, like, what do the at-bats look like? Is he chasing? And even if he is, like, okay, like right now it's just about seeing pitches. You just want to see live pitches. And so that's my only concern is, you know, are you seeing, are you tracking the ball? Are you getting your reps? And the Mariners have about two weeks left to spring training games.

I would imagine we're going to see the starters start to get into a lot of games over the next, you know, 10 days or so before they ramp back down before opening day. So, no, I'm not worried. is fam interesting i mean kind of always was yeah independent of the raley uh struggles in spring but uh my question is just like how do you get them on this roster right same thing as you know michael a taylor adam deval have any of those guys sign by the way yeah so um you know all those guys still i'm intrigued by i just don't really know how they're going to get them on the roster. It seems like they're pretty firm on on what they have right now, barring any injuries. And like also again, you have to spend the money. And we know the mayors don't have a ton of

that. And they'd like to save something. Right. They like to save a little something for in season moves. So yeah. Yeah, like family remains interesting. But you know, it's not going to happen. Yeah. Yeah. We'll see. By the way, a missed, uh, Miss Strike three cost Logan Gilbert to run. So you're panicked about the older giving up a run just know that he should have been out of the inning right right all right so we got a couple more questions from you guys

that we're going to answer here in just a moment but first a reminder this episode of the lockdown manor's podcast is brought to you by amazon fire tv tv is your destination for sports from live games to highlights to in-depth analysis fire tv offers amazing viewing experiences with smart TVs as well as the fire TV stick that you can plug into your existing TV

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And you're listening to the Lockdown Marries podcast. Thank you again for making us your first listen here on Mailbag Monday. couple more questions from you guys. This one comes from Dakota. With Cade Marlowe performing at a better clip than Taylor Trammell, the time for Taylor to be DFA'd. I don't think Marlowe's performance really has any impact on that, to be honest with you, because I just don't see how, unless MLB actually pushes that rule that limits how

many pitchers you can carry to 12. I just don't see how Kate Marlowe is getting on this roster. And therefore, I don't see how his performance impacts Taylor Trammell, right? Right. plus it's not like Tremel is also produced and now they're trying to figure out like which one goes on the roster. The answer is neither of them are going to make this roster. Tremel's pretty clearly though. He's pretty clearly behind Marlowe at this stage in the Mariners pecking order.

He's going to be behind Sam Haggri. He's going to be behind Samad Taylor. Trimel's getting DFA'd. Do you do it now? I mean, there's really no reason to. But yeah, he's getting non-10. Like he's getting DFAD. It's going to happen at some point this spring.

there's really no reason to do it right now though maybe he can put together an impressive couple days you might actually be able to get a little something for him but he's getting DFA and it has nothing to do with anybody's performance but his own it's just it's been subpar there's very little to indicate that he's a major league quality player and the managers need that 40 man spot so

well I mean honestly they would they would keep him on the 40 man if they could and just send him down to the he's out of options he's out of options so he's going to be DFAed and it has nothing to do with Cape Marlowe as good as Cape Marl has looked this spring and I think he's looked pretty good again based off my limited viewings

but yeah Tremel is just not he's not going to make this club so he's going to be DFA'd and we'll see if he clears or not yeah you know ideally he lands somewhere that he can actually get playing time at the Major League level

and you know maybe it's Oakland maybe it's Oakland maybe it's Detroit maybe it's somewhere like that. Yeah. And, you know, I like Taylor Chamele a lot, big fan of his, wish him nothing but the best, but it's, it's very clear that just if he's going to carve out some sort of role for himself at the major league level, it's just not going to be in Seattle, just too many guys ahead of him right now. And where the Mariners are at right now and where they want to go, they, they just don't have the ability to give them that chance. A P&W sports fan wants to know, assuming they're

performing at the levels we think they can, who in this group is most likely to get traded at the deadline. Munoz, Brash, Santos, Spire, or Stannick? Stannick. Yeah. Stannick, maybe Spire. Here's the thing, right? Like, I assume this question is being asked because they traded Paul Seawald. They traded Kendall Graveman. Major difference between those guys and Santos, Munoz, Brash.

Those guys actually have club control. Graveman and Seawald. Graemean was a couple months away from free agency. Seawald was a year in a couple months. away from free agency. Very, very, very different situations. And they knew that Seawald was going to make like eight, nine million bucks the following year. Yeah, there's, there's that.

There's, there's, are so many differences between those two guys and Munoz, Brasch, Munoz, Brash, uh, Santos and Spire, will combine to make less than Paul Seawald when they traded him. Like, it, it, they're different. So, you know, my feeling is always like, especially if you are, are going to underperform, trade your relievers, trade your good relievers, so long as you're getting proper value for them. If you got the Godfather offer, you know, which is an offer, you can't refuse for those that don't know, if you got the Godfather offer for Andres Munoz

or Matt Brasch or whoever this summer and you're able to get, you know, an everyday player or two everyday players or something like that for one of those guys. If you can get fine. Yeah, if you can get Esauk forades and Curtis Mead and like Colin Poshay for Matt Brash on July 28th and you're, you know, three games up on the Astros for the division lead like, fine,

you still might do that. Right. But like you're not, you're not, you're not going to trade those guys for like, you're just like you said. Josh Rojas, I'm in a can zone.

You're not going to trade those guys for that. Right. No, because I don't think of the Mariners were like had a shot to win the division last year at the deadline that they would have traded Paul Sewell. I don't think they would have done that. So, um, Yeah, a lot of this will be determined by where they're at.

We know from the Jerry interview recently that he basically admitted that they had no interest in buying whatsoever last summer. And where they were at, they were, you know, three or four teams ahead of them for that last wild card spot. And they were around 500. So if they're in a similar spot this year, would they be more open to trading Munoz or Brash or Santos? Yeah, probably. It doesn't mean they're going to. All right. Well, that is going to do it for our show.

Thank you so much for joining us here on the Lockdown Marreras podcast. For Colby Patnode, I'm Tideon Gonzalez. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L0 underscore Mariners. You can follow me at Tideane Gonzalez. Colby at CPAT 11. That's CPAT-1-1. You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode. Thank you again for making us your first listen.

Have yourself a beautiful baseball day, and we'll see you next time. Peace.