Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - How the Mariners Rotation Can Be Even Better in 2025

Episode Date: February 26, 2025

Ty and Colby kick off their 2025 position preview series for the Mariners with a look at arguably the best starting pitching rotation in the sport, breaking down their thoughts, excitement, concerns, questions, and more on Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo.Participate in our Mariners preseason survey!Check out our Patreon!Follow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @TyDaneGonzalez | @CPat11Follow the show on Bluesky: @lockedonmariners | @tdg | @mlbcolbySupport Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!Wonderful PistachiosLooking for a snack that’s both delicious and nutritious? Get snackin’ and get crackin’ with the snack that packs a protein punch. Visit WonderfulPistachios.com to learn more. SelectQuoteGet the right life insurance for you, for less, at SelectQuote.com/LOCKEDONMLB.  FanDuelRight now, new FanDuel customers can get ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY DOLLARS in Bonus Bets if your first FIVE DOLLAR bet wins!Download the app or head to FANDUEL.COM to get started. Bet with FanDuel—Official Partner of the NBA.  FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

After a winner full of trade rumors, mostly swirling around Luis Castillo, the Marrains wound up keeping their starting rotation completely intact. Now, the only question is, how good will they be in 2025? Let's talk about it. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day.

Ahoy, Sailors. And it's Tuesday, February 25th, 2025. This is Tiding Gonzalez and Colby Patnaud for the Lockdown Marys. part of the Locked On podcast network of your team every day. Today we're kicking off our position preview series with a look at the Mariners starting rotation. But before we get into that, a reminder, as always, if you want to hear from me and Colby even more and help support the show, you can check out our Patreon. All you have to do to check that out is click the link in the description of this episode.

And also yesterday, we announced that we have a 2025 Mariners preseason survey going on that we would love for you to be a part of. series of very simple polls, stuff like what's your level of confidence in the front office, ownership, stuff like that. We would love to hear your answers on those fronts. The link will be in the description of this episode, whether you're watching on YouTube or listening on podcast platforms. So, yeah, we'll be using the data from your answers, probably in a future episode or two

over the next few weeks. So yeah, we're beginning our position preview series here on the show now that we are exactly 30 days away from opening day. And why not kick things off with one of the best, if not the best rotations and all of baseball? We can start with really any of these guys. But I think we'll start with Logan Gilbert. We'll see if he actually gets the ball on day one. I think he's earned that right. I think he did surpass Luis Castillo as the ace of the marries rotation with the year that he put together in 2024.

He was just a better pitcher than Castillo. He was an all-star. Castillo wasn't all that stuff. And then, you know, you dive into the numbers and it becomes pretty clear. I mean, led the league in innings pitch in 2024 with 208 and two thirds, 949 Ks per 9, just the second time he's averaged a strikeout per inning in his career. 160 walks per nine that's a career best also had a career best mark in ground ball percentage 45.1% in that regard 323ERA 327 FIP 311 X FIP and was worth 4.1 F4 so pretty much career highs and career lows and all that across the board for Logan Gilbert in 2024 so really my question Colby is was that peak Logan Gilbert is this just kind of

who he is or is there another gear here for him as we head into his now fifth season in major league baseball yeah um you know it's always kind of hard to to put a cap on what logan can accomplish because every year he comes back and he's tweaked something or he's changed something uh or he's added a pitch which he wasn't allowed to do this year because only andres munoz is apparently the only one who could ever ever ever throw a nasty pitch apparently. So yeah, it's hard to say that, you know, you ever feel like Gilbert's done. And I don't think he is.

I mean, now there are some things that I think are kind of overblown about where he could improve. Last year, there was a lot of talk about how he struggled on the road and, you know, and he wasn't as good as he was at home, which, you know, a, duh, I mean, you pitch a team mobile park, your numbers are probably going to be better at Team Mobile Park. Most pitchers are going to be that way. but also I think when you actually look at the numbers and you look at the starts that he made on the road, he had two really bad outings pretty close. I don't think they were quite back to back, but they were pretty close to back to back,

where he went against the twins in Minnesota and against the Red Sox, obviously, in Boston. They gave up like 15 earned in six innings. And in the other hundred or so innings he threw on the road, his ERA was sub three. So he was actually really good on the road as well. So I don't think there's a home road problem here. I think one area you could see a little bit of improvement is I still think there's more, there's more whiffs to be had. I still think his strikeout rate could go a little bit higher.

Now, it's plenty good. Like it's not like he can't avoid contact. I think, you know, kind of the next thing for him is like, can you eliminate more of these blowup starts? Because Glogan does tend to have, you know, three or four a year. And I think through ACE, you usually only have maybe one of those a year. And, you know, other thing that Logan, I don't want to say struggle with, but we saw it a few times last year is that he would be motoring and he'd get, you know, into the seventh inning, eighth inning.

Struggle to finish off starts. Yeah. And then, you know, you get a couple outs. And then all of a sudden, you know, it's a single. It's a walk. And then it's a home run. And then all of a sudden, you know, as we know, this offense isn't really built to score a bunch of runs and, you know, with six outs to work with. So, yeah, there were some struggling he did with just filling out or just finishing out starts.

So, yeah, there are things like that that he could work on. But Logan right now is already pretty good. Is there another step you could take? Sure. Yeah. I do think that there is more swing and miss still. And I do think that just kind of finishing off these starts and getting to the dugout and going seven strong and regularly, which, you know, for the most part, he does do. But I think, you know, just eliminating some of those late game mistake pitches and just kind of finishing off starts is probably the,

next evolution for Logan. So let's talk about Luis Castillo. Kind of a step back year for him in 2024. Still a good year, but a step back year for for Castillo. And then, you know, he had to spend this whole winter hearing his name, crop up in rumors. He ends up not moving, though. He's still in Seattle.

We'll see how long that lasts. I mean, I would assume unless things go sideways for the team as a whole, he'll at least be a mariner through the entire 2025 season. But once that, no trade clause lifts, I believe on January 1st. We'll see what the marinas do about that. But so this can very well be Castillo's last season as a mariner. 364 ERA last year, 391 FIPP, 382XF4, 8.98, Ks per 9. Ks per 9 went down pretty substantially last year.

Walks per 9, pretty much the same. 241 walks per nine actually the lowest that he's posted in Ameris uniform over 175 and a third innings pitched he did get hurt just a minor injury towards the end of the year but it happened so late that he wasn't able

to make his way back in time for the end of the season we just saw him pitch today so I don't know if you have any takeaways from what you saw today against the Dodgers but overall how are you feeling about Luis still well

I mean, I think there is a lot of kind of unfounded concern that, like, Luis has found the cliff. It's here. And just because he wasn't, you know, great last year, I think that's a little bit unfounded. He was pretty good last year. Obviously, not as good as you wanted him to be. But he was well on his way to giving you 200 quality innings, which is kind of what he does. Yeah.

And the strikeouts were down. And that's kind of the big key here. The fastball was still really good, both of them. Plenty of whiffs on that. I mean, you got really good value out of the fastball. Slider wasn't quite where it needed to be. And the change up was just unusable. So it's one of those things where, like, am I, like, do I feel good that Castillo is still like in the rotate?

Like Luis Castillo is probably like at least the number two in like half the rotations in baseball. Probably more. And in the Mariners rotation, we could end the year with him being the true number five, but he's really good. So it's kind of tough to, you know, properly evaluate Castillo because it's hard not to compare him to his peers

that are in the rotation with him. And objectively speaking, the other four guys had better year than Luis Castillo did last year. I think it's pretty close with George, but, you know, I think you get the edge to George there. So overall, I was,

I was, I wasn't unimpressed with Castillo last year, but I wasn't wowed or anything like that. He needs to be a little bit better, but the basketball's still there. Like the slider is still fine. It just needs to be cleaned up a little bit from where it was last year.

Yeah. I really do feel like he needs to find a change up again or a cutter because the problem with Castillo last year, it was the lefties. Lefties ate him up. And he doesn't really have a good counter pitch for that. Because while Castillo only walked, what, 2.4 guys per 9 last year,

he doesn't have amazing command, right? His stuff is really good. but because it's so good, it's really hard to judge or anticipate the amount of movement you're going to get on a pitch. So a lot of times you'll see that two seamer, that sinker start in off the plate,

but then it runs right back over the middle of the plate to lefties and they crush it. So I think he needs a pitch to counter lefties. It doesn't sound like he added anything new this off season. We haven't heard anything about that. I didn't notice anything new today. No, I think a cutter would have been really good for Luis to learn.

Now, that's not a particularly, difficult pitch to learn. Maybe it's something he can pick up and use a little bit in season. But yeah, I think he needs something against lefties. And he threw a couple changeups today. They were pretty good. And the movement on the changeup and all that stuff is fine. He just hasn't really thrown it over the last couple of years.

And so I think he either needs to find the change up again and get value out of that pitch once more or he needs to add something to deal with the lefties. because I think the movement on the fastball is just really tough to predict from pitch to pitch because it gets a ton of run. And I think that makes you dangerous against lefties. So I think he needs a weapon there. And I think if he can handle lefties better this year, he'll go right back to what he was, you know, in 2023 and 22.

Well, and him going away from the change up kind of coincides with the ground ball rate going down substantially. And the home run numbers is going up. He's given up 25. or he gave up 25 this past year, 28 and 2023. It's not great. It's not great. And the ground ball rates in both of his full seasons with the Mariners has been sub-40%. Maybe the change-up is the key to getting that number back into at least the mid-40s where it was in 2022.

And he was a 56% ground ball pitcher back in 2021. And he had to be pitching in half of his games, a great American ballpark. So like I get it You're you're pitching in T-Mobile Park It's the most extreme pitcher-friendly ballpark In the entire world You can live with the ball being in the air A bit more than you can at really any other ballpark

But yeah I would like to see him Putting getting the ball back on the ground Trusting his defense a little bit more I know it's not a great end field defense Of the Marius have aligned right now But still I think that would that would do wonders for him And plus the fast ball is so good

that the changeup is going to play off of that very, very well. Yeah, I don't think the change up has to be like Felix Hernandez level change up to get value out of it because again, the four seam and the two seam fastballs are both really good pitches for him. And so, yeah, he definitely needs to get more ground balls. He needs to figure out a way to get lefties out more consistently. But, you know, to be to your point today about the ground balls, I think all but one of his outs was a ground ball today. So maybe that's something. Oh, and he had two ground balls on the changeup today. Yeah.

You know, and it wasn't like the Dodgers A lineup. Otani's not in it, but the Dodgers B lineup is still kind of a majorly quality lineup. So especially just the handful of guys that Castillo face. And the nice thing about asking Castillo to go back to the changeup is that he's had it for a long time. Right. It's been an effective pitch for him in his career. They used to be like bread of butter. Right.

It was, you know, two seam, there's more two seam and change up, which is why there was a high ground ball rate. So yeah, you're not asking him to do something he's never done before. You're kind of just asking him to rediscover something he's had. He's just kind of pushed into the back of his, you know, arsenal over the last few years. He's much more been basketball slider in Seattle. And it just, I think he needs to be fastball changeup slider this year. Agreed. Agreed.

And you're listening to the Locked on Maris podcast. podcast, we are previewing the Mariners starting rotation for the 2025 season. Let's talk about George Kirby. There are guys in this rotation that I'm more excited to watch in 2025, Colby. But there is no one that I'm more interested to watch in 2025 than George Kirby. Because, like I asked you with Logan Gilbert, is there another gear here when it comes to Kirby? 843Ks per 9, still didn't generate enough. swing and miss,

108 walks per nine, the walk rate still elite, 353EERA, 326 FIP, 358 X FIP, it was worth 4.2FWR. Like on the surface, amazing year,

right? Did that over the course of 191 innings. Yep. Started 33 games. Like, really, like, would you look for to Logan? Yeah,

you look at those numbers, what more could you ask for out of George Kirby, right? But then you actually, like, peel back the layers. And he looked at the individual starts and there were some pretty glaring issues with Kirby's year in 2024.

I mean, you look at the start early on in the season against Cleveland. You look at both of the starts against the Tigers, especially the one at Camerica Park where, yeah, his defense didn't do him any favors. But he also let that start unravel. He did not do anything to help stop the bleeding. So I do wonder a little bit about, one, the swing and miss, obviously, that's the biggest question for me, just on a technical, from a technical standpoint. But I also do wonder about him emotionally on the mound a little bit as well. And he's someone that obviously does wear his emotions on his sleeve. And it does seem like some things do get to him pretty easily.

So like, I hate to say it, but like I kind of want to see some maturity out of George Kirby in 2025 on the mound. Yeah. I don't think we're the only ones that feel this way. But I do wonder if George is, I don't want to necessarily say wearing out is welcome. But there's a very certain type of pitcher that the Mariners like. And George checks a lot of those boxes. but I think what we see most of the time is George kind of like does things his own way. He's kind of like he tinkers, but he doesn't really consult anybody.

He doesn't work out with anybody in the off season. He just kind of throws to the, you know, to the grid thing. And this year he threw to a catcher. And, you know, it's just one of those things where it's like George is kind of out there a little bit. And, you know, we remember the kind of the fit he threw about having asked being asked to go out there and get a couple more outs against Tampa a few years ago. this year there were times where it looked like after his defense made a mistake, he decided he was just going to pipe fastballs. And it does kind of read to me that I don't want to call it an attitude problem per se,

but there seems to be some maturing that does need to happen emotionally in that light. So it is interesting. That's for can he get better? I mean, sure, I think he can, but is he going to? I don't know. he's basically been the same dude since he showed up here and that's fine like I said that's not bad again when you look at the numbers it sounds like we're really nitpicking here but I watched right I have eyes I watched what George Kirby did particularly in the month of August and he was awful he was awful he was piping balls he was giving up home runs uh you know and a lot of the times it looked like he would just shut down when things didn't go his way uh and you know those numbers in August 684 ERA 704 five phip four six six x-fip so defense not not doing them favors but uh sure the k rate went down even further home run to five ball rate was really high particularly that start in

detroit where he gave up 11 runs or whatever only six ended up counting against them or five because of an error yeah really when you watch that game that's the game a kirby gave up he just started piping fastballs he was he wanted to get out of there three home runs 12 hit it's right so we can talk about he only gave up six that day but i remember that game i watched that game and he should have been charged with all 11 it wasn't like a super he had an opportunity to get out of that inning without any more damage being done and he just didn't he wouldn't so i do have questions about george's maturity level i don't really doubt that he's going to have a good year i doubt can he take the next step and be a great pitcher like the guy i don't know

i think he can't i think he has the potential to do it i don't know if he can get there because i do worry sometimes about whether or not he has matured enough. It's just, is he a second tier guy or is he legitimate Syyong contender? Yeah. Can he be an ace or is he just a really, really, really, really solid number two starter? Yeah.

And if he's just a really solid number two starter? That's more than fine. I don't have any complaints about George on the field. Yeah, no. No. No, it's just, I do think that there are some pretty clear areas where he can grow. and now and again like I know we're saying all this stuff and I want to make it clear like I don't want to assume things I don't know George Kirby I'm not in that clubhouse right no but

but from what I see especially during some of those starts yeah is that and look again he's a high high high competitor who wears his emotions on on his sleeve and that's great that's great but that can be a gift and and a bit of a curse as well right so both ways just I would like to see him be able to reel that in a little bit more particularly at times where things aren't going exactly his way yeah so he can limit the damage and he doesn't have an outing like the Cleveland start at the you know at the start of the year last year or that won in America yeah I mean the mariners don't mind their pitchers going out there and you know, like showing emotion. We see Logan all the time. But typically when things go south on Logan, you know, it's just like,

okay, whatever. We don't really see the emotion on the mound. When things go south for George, you could see kind of the pouty nature and you can kind of see it's seeping. And like I said, that works both ways. Curious George works both ways.

Yeah. It either is elite or it's just like, screw this, I'm out of here type of attitude, at least, and that's, again, from 30,000 feet away just watching on TV. It's just like he braids quits a little bit.

It looks like he does. Yeah. Yeah. And again, you know, obviously nobody's going to go on the record from the Mariners and be like, yeah, that that's kind of a thing. But, you know, you just kind of look at some of the incidents that we do know about. You look at just kind of body language on the mound, which isn't always a great indicator, but sometimes it is.

Yeah, I think George is going to have a really nice season. And I hope he does take another step forward. I do think there is still more swing and miss to get here. but I just I wonder more so than any of the other pitchers in this Mariners rotation is like you know is there some kind of mental block that is going to keep him from reaching his ceiling or is there some kind of emotional immaturity I don't know but I don't like that I have questions about it whereas the other four guys I have no doubts in my mind about and that's just I mean like that's fair yeah yeah I just don't want it to seem like we're piling on George because he's

Fun to watch. I really enjoy having him. No. But I just, those are the questions I have. It's really very little about what happens, you know, on the mound most days.

It's mostly between the years. Again, it's just, I think George Kirby has, has what it takes to be one of the best pitchers in the game. Yep. I want to see him get there. Yeah.

And so, you know, I noticed these things. And it's like, I feel like that might be keeping him from getting to that level. That I think he absolutely. can't reach. So, yeah, so I'm hoping that he is able to do that.

And he is able to get to that level this year. Again, I think he's absolutely capable. But it does start with getting more consistent swing in this. He doesn't need to be an 11 strikeout per nine guy, but he just needs to be able to miss more bats. If he could eliminate, you know, he has a few more of those blowup starts and even Logan does. you're going to eliminate half of those, it'll go a long way to get in them there too. All right. We are going to go over the exciting duo of Bryce Miller and Brian Wu in just a moment.

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And we'll start with Miller, who if you saw my appearance on the Marine Layer podcast last week or that clip that they posted on social media, you already know that I am very excited about what Miller's 2025 could ultimately look like. And that is very simply because I think his path to generating more consistent swing and miss, it's pretty easy to see. Right.

Miller has yet to average a strikeout per inning in his career. I think that changes with relative ease in 2025 for two reasons. One, that cutter that he has spent this offseason, refining and is expected to be a much larger part of his arsenal. And two, that splitter that we saw last year, which was almost immediately one of the filthiest pitches in baseball. Among all pitchers that threw a splitter in 2024, Bryce Miller ranked second in splitter

run value, right? Mark Leiter Jr. was the only pitcher I've had of him with a plus 11 run value on his splitter. Miller was plus 10. And lighter, of course, is a reliever. So if you want to look at it from just a pure starter standpoint, no starter in baseball who threw a splitter in the year of our Lord 24, threw a splitter that was better than Bryce Miller, right? And that's for a guy who had just learned the pitch, right? Pretty ridiculous stuff. So really, the biggest question here with Miller is how does he perform on the road? The home road splits are pretty severe. Far more severe than like Logan Gilbert like we talked about earlier.

245 FIP at home for Miller, 488 FIPP on the road. The strikeout per nine numbers also pretty wide gap between those numbers. 1037 Ks per 9 at home, just a 643 case per 9 on the road for Miller. So is that like a batter's eye thing? We've talked a lot about that in Seattle and the effect of that in Seattle. So the road numbers need to significantly. improve for Miller for him to get to where I ultimately think he can get to. But yeah, how are you feeling about Miller, Colby?

Yeah, it's worth noting, though, when you look at the home road splits in the second half, it is much more of what you want to see. Bryce appeared to figure something out in the second half when pitching on the road. He was much better than. Yeah, Miller, I don't know if he has elite stuff. I think he's got very good stuff. And I think he throws, obviously, he throws a ton of strikes. And he is very...

Splutter was pretty late last year. Like only statistically. But it's number one in run value. In terms of like movement and all that stuff, it pairs very well with his fastball. So yeah, I do wonder if there's maybe more there. I would like to see a little bit more out of the breaking ball, the sweeper or the slider, whichever one he's thrown these days, probably both and the curb ball. I'm sure he's got that too.

Bryce is pretty similar to Logan in that he constantly tinker. he's constantly adding pitches he's constantly trying new things he throws a ton of strikes he's very durable but i do think there's more whiff uh to go get and i don't know what form that comes in uh this year apparently he's added the cutter uh well he threw it a little bit last year but this year he's really he's like refined it yeah so it's another weapon against lefties um so yeah miller and judging by our poll uh we didn't ask this question but it kind of seems like people People, fans, at least the ones who have answered our poll, kind of think Miller might be the second best pitcher in this rotation. And I get it.

It feels a bit early to make that proclamation right now, but it could definitely be true by the end of this year. And Miller, you know, again, he's got fastball, cutter, splitter, sweeper, slider, curveball. Like, does he have too many pitches? Maybe. Maybe he has to pare it down a little bit. But he's going to throw a lot of strikes. He's going to compete. And, you know, he tends to not let, you know, bad.

things kind of blow up his start. Like he's very, uh, even keel most of the time and, and he's capable of going out there and dominating the lineup. Uh, and yeah, you know, I don't think that he's quite reached the levels of,

of Gilbert or maybe not even Kirby quite yet. Uh, and obviously he doesn't have the track record of Castillo. But Miller might be, you know, by the end of this year, Miller might be the, the Mariners actual number one.

Uh, and, you know, there's still some things to work on. Uh, I do think there's more width to get. but just as a baseline, he throws strikes,

he gets a lot of soft contact, well enough soft contact, and he's durable. He hasn't missed his start in his major league career. Well, I think he missed the last one last year with a blister, but that was because the Mariners were eliminated.

So, dude checks all the boxes. He's got the build that you want. Bonus, he's kind of a quirky dude. Like Bryce Miller is a lefty, who happens to throw righty. And, yeah,

I mean, he's going to be a fan favorite and he already is. And I think Miller could break out big this year and kind of establish himself in a way that Logan Gilbert has is when people talk about like, you know, they're not the Garrett Coles of the world. But in that next year, I think Miller could easily end up being in that discussion by the end of this year, not just from us who are kind of already starting to put him there, but from national people. And I think, you know, Miller is is going to gain quite a bit of recognition. mission could even make the all-star team this year i wouldn't be shocked at all yeah i love the pitchers that just challenge you right here's my fastball hit it and that's yes a word i'm allowed to use yeah the the the heck you fastball if you will the fudge you sure yeah like the mother father fastball sure i assume we're talking you got any other

now. Do you got any others? No, but if we're not talking about Brian Wu right now, we're wasting everybody's time. It's true. Yeah, speaking of really good fast balls, Brian Wu, man.

Brian Wu is, he's definitely that to a T as well, right? As good as, as Bryce Miller is and as good as Bryce Miller is and as good as that fastball is coming out of Bryce Miller's hand, there might not be a better fastball in baseball than the one that comes out of Brian Wu's hand.

maybe Spencer Strider. Yeah. Like maybe. Yeah. But Woo's got two of them. We've got two of them. It's the most effortless delivery you'll you'll see. And he also doesn't get tagged for a lot of hard contact, which is wild, even though he almost exclusively throws these fastballs.

Now, we did see some wrinkles here and there over the course of 2024 where he did dive into his secondaries a little bit more. overall it was still a very fastball heavy approach from Wu over the course of the year. I'm interested to see if he gets into his bag a little bit more this year. But yeah, that's kind of like my major question with Wu going into 2025. Is it just going to be more of the same? Or are we are going to see like this another, I hate to say this again. I feel like I'm abusing this term. But like are we going to see him kick into.

to another year. Is he going to add another wrinkle? Yeah. Yeah, it's tough to say with Wu because, I mean, well, first and forth, we just have, we just have seen less of him than we have anybody else in this rotation. And last year, he missed the first month and he had a couple separate IL stents. But in the second half, it really felt like he, I don't want to say he learned to push through minor discomfort because that's not exactly what happened.

But, you know, he just kind of, you know, went out there and he was just cutting it loose, really at the end of the year. And it was it was just four seam two seam at the top of the zone. And again, common theme in Mariners starters, he peppers the strike zone with the fastball. And the difference is that Wooz is so much better. Like Luis Castillo has a very good fastball. It takes a lot to have the second best fastball in a rotation. or it takes a lot for that fastball to be the second best fastball

on a rotation. That's insane. Honestly, it might be third best because Wu's two seamer is also really good. And like you said, it's so effortless.

It explodes out of his hand. You know, it looks like he's just playing the most casual game of catch. And obviously that helps. I think my question with Wu right now are my primary concern with Wu, more so than development of his change up in his slider, is like,

hey man, can you take the ball 30 times? Yeah. Can he pitch every five days consistently? I think he can't. I think he's had a bit of bad luck. It's certainly not a, you know, he's not out of shape. It's not a delivery issue where he's just such as such a high effort delivery that like it's so much wear and tear.

We have to remember the dude has barely pitched since high school in the grand scheme of things. You look at the total number of enemies he's thrown since he left high school. it averages out to like 60 a year. And that's with him throwing what, 120 last year? Like it really is nuts. And so yeah, it's been,

the mayors have kind of played this long game with Wu. They've been very cautious with them. I think this is the year they kind of unleash him. I don't think they're going to ask them to throw 180 innings, but could you go 160? I think that's probably the hope this year. And, you know, Wu probably also has the furthest to go on his off-speed stuff

of anybody in this rotation. And yet he's still, you know on any given day the best pitcher in this mariner's rotation that's what's so exciting about brian woo so uh and he was even more on the strike zone than george kirby was he he posted a lower walks per nine than george kirby in 2020 for it yeah that's a ridiculous what we're talking about here uh the canines dropped pretty significantly from year one to year two um so yeah And the walks as, and that might be, that might coincide with one another.

Like the walks did go substantially. Well, because also, like, word gets out, like, this dude's going to throw you a fastball, and it's probably going to be a strike. And the fact that the league knows that, like, they're probably getting a fastball, and it's probably going to be in the strike zone. And they still can't hit it with any regularity. Speaks to how good those pitches are. Because, like we always say, I don't care if you throw 110.

If it's in the same spot every time, it's going to get destroyed eventually. Wu is going to throw the fastball 60, 70, 80% of the time. It's going to be in the strike zone, 60, 70, 80% of the time. You know roughly where he's going to try to attack you, and you still can't hit that pitch. It really is incredible what Brian Wu was able to accomplish. I mean, last year, minimum 120 innings pitch. She threw 121.1. last year.

He was, or he had the 22nd lowest hard hit rate against. And he's exclusively throwing fastballs. Well, almost exclusively. Again, there was like a couple of starts where he actually threw his secondaries with some frequency, but. And we're talking about that's, that's a bit higher than some of these guys who are, you know, you would consider it to be more finesse guys, pitch to contact guys.

And he's, again, he's just going, you know, screw you, hit my fast. Fastball. The mother father fastball, let's call it on this show. I have a different name for it. Yeah. Yes. And on Twitter. Yeah, it's pretty much anywhere but here.

I call it something else. Yeah. But yeah, I mean, it's just it's the most effortless delivery you'll ever see. It looks, honestly, it looks like a dad thrown to like his eight year old son where he's like not trying to like scare him or anything. and then all of a sudden just pop. Like, Wu might be the most fun guy to watch in the entire rotation. Because, like, you know what you're going to get? But on the days where he actually has, like, his best slider to go with the fastball,

it's basically game over. As to San Diego Padres, ask the Yankees, like, he will carve you up with a four-seamer and a slider. And if he doesn't have the slider, there's still a decent chance he's going to carve you up with the fastballs. If Wu makes 30 starts this year, he's going to be a four-five-win starter. Like he's just that guy. He is that good.

So for me, it's about a making your 30 starts. And then everything after that is, I mean, it's so important. But like if the change up doesn't quite take that step, we hope it does. Or the slider isn't quite as sharp as we isn't quite a more sharp than it was last, whatever, however you want to phrase. Right. The slider doesn't take a big enough step forward like we would like him to. If he still makes 30 starts, he's going to be a four win starter. like he just

honestly regardless if the whiffs go up or not because it's soft contact it's not a lot of home runs he's not going to walk you yeah I think Wu is is going to be a household name

after this year yeah he also posted the fifth lowest barrel rate in all of baseball minimum 120 in in in in sports throwing exclusively fastballs. No one can barrel him up. Yeah.

Last year, the opponent's hit 225 off the fastball. That was their expected batting average. 262 Woba, 276X Woba, 276-WB, 27% whiff rate on that pitch, and 36.6% O-sling rate. When he threw it above the belt, upper third, right? 160 expected batting 210 woba 210 x woba and a 31.6% whiff rate. Elite whiff rates on four seamers are 28, 2930. Those are elite.

It was 32% when he throws it up in the zone. Yeah. That's just the four seamer too, not even a two seamer. And the two seamer to me is the more fun pitch. I mean, it's a thing of beauty against lefties. That's for sure. Yeah, yeah. All right.

Well, yeah. We don't even talk about Hancock. Yeah, that's the five guys. I mean, I mean, there's the, yeah, there's the depth guys. But I mean, Brandon Garcia looks like, Bernie Garcia looks like he's going to be a reliever this year. So he's kind of out of the equation. Logan Evans, maybe at some point. But, yeah, it's Hancock's probably the first guy.

If there's an injury or what have you, knock on wood. The depth guys are all the same. Okay. They throw strikes. The stuff is mediocre to okay. Like there's not much range there in the stuff. And they're going to have to grit their way through five or six innings. And it's a significant drop off for many of the five minutes in the rotation.

I mean, there's just not a Logan Evans and Emerson Hancock right now. Basically are going to give you roughly the same thing. And we'll see, you know, Evans could surpass Hancock, you know, by May or June. But I do think that if something happens into this rotation. They'll trust Emerson. He'll get first crack at it. And, you know, you just hope that it's not a disaster again. Yeah, yeah.

All right. That's going to do it for our show. Tomorrow we will look at the bullpen. Thank you so much for joining us here on the Lockdown Marrars podcast. Colby Pat Node. I'm Tiding, Gazzalas. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter. And L.O. underscore Marrins.

You can follow me at Tiding, Gzalus. And Colby at C-Pat-11. We're also on Blue Sky. You can follow me at TDG. Colby at MLB, Colby, Colby and the show at Lockdown Mariners. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day, and we'll see you next time. Peace.