Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Is 2025 Really the Mariners' Best Chance to Win the World Series?

Episode Date: July 21, 2025

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Anoint loss yesterday aside. It was still a good weekend for the Mariners. Let's see what you want to know after all of it. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Ahoy, Sailors. It is Monday, July 21st, 2025.

This is Tedding as Ellis. Colby Patnode for the Lockdown Marys podcast. Part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. This episode is brought to you by Fandul. Right now, new customers can get $1,45. $50 in bonus bets when your first $5 bet wins. And as always, if you want to hear from me and Colby even more and help support the show, you can check out our Patreon.

All you have to do to check that out is click the link in the description of this episode. Let's open up with the mailbag like we do here every Monday and answer some of your Mariners questions, starting with this one from Christopher wants to know. What's the current analysis with our bullpen? Who do we keep or move by the deadline? Colby? You're probably not trading anybody out of this bullpen. There's really not that many valuable pieces.

in it, which goes to the state of the bullpen. It's not good. It's not good. You trust Munoz. You mostly trust Brasch, although, you know, little dicey sometimes, but. Yeah, a lot of those are a lot of them been great. Yeah. I think at this point, you kind of have to trust Bizarro.

Yep. And spires kind of where Brash is right now. We're mostly good, but the hiccups are, are noticeable. and they're becoming a little bit more frequent. Vargas has been objectively bad this month, although it's been very good for the entirety of the year. So a little tough to trust him right now. And obviously,

Thornton is the guy that Dan Wilson clearly doesn't trust in any kind of serious moments. Like, he's kind of the guy they use it. They have to use somebody. So, yeah, you look at the bullpen right now. They're a guy short. And they're a guy who probably needs to be in that brash range in terms of trust factor short. Even if you think Bizarro can keep up what he's doing right now for the entire season, that's great.

He's still more of a seventh inning guy to use the general baseball term here. You need more of an eighth inning guy or a ninth inning guy in the back end of your bullpen. So, yeah, it's not very deep. You have about, we'll call it four guys you trust, but like Brash and Spire, both kind of like half trust right now. And that's just not going to work, you know, especially if your pitching isn't going to consistently go deep into ball games. So right now, that's still up in the air. Like, you can't cover four innings a night with the same four guys for the next two months. It just doesn't work.

So I do think they need to add to this bullpen. I think they need to add more on the upper end of things. So at least another, at least another Gabe Spire. But probably you prefer somebody more like Brash, but those guys are more expensive. expensive. So the bullpen needs work. I mean, there's just no way around it. You know, again, especially if Munoz is only ever going to pitch the ninth with a lead or a tie, like, stupid. But if that's the way they're going to deploy him, then they need another Munoz to use before the ninth inning or somebody close to that. So they definitely need an arm. Trent Thornton is definitely on the chopping block. Casey Ligamina is on the chopping block.

What a weird weekend for Legamina. He looked dominant on Saturday. and then he was like the worst pitcher we've ever seen yesterday. So just too inconsistent there. But Thornton, Legamuna, definitely on the chopping block. Burgos. Burgos as well. I can't believe he's still on the roster, to be honest with you. Not because he's been necessarily bad.

It's just like they don't use him. I think Vargas should be. I don't think they will, though, especially with him lacking minor league options because they would just, they would have to cut the cord if they're down there. And I don't think they want to give up on him just, yet no and again he's been mostly good this year it's just the last couple of outings seven especially rough so um yeah like i think they would if they can add another guy like a a mounios before the ninth type of guy and then they could add a you know the problem with that

though is like if we're talking about a munios type of guy we're getting into the bautista claus say Mason Miller type of range of guys. And, you know, like we talked about on Fan Fiction Friday, I don't want to pay what that's going to cost. Right. Maybe a Ryan Helsley. He hasn't had a great year. Maybe.

Maybe. Yeah. You know, he's still going to be pricey. Yeah. I mean, like it doesn't necessarily have to be Munoz, but you need to go get your, your Jimmy Garcia from last year. And hopefully this one stays healthy. Yeah.

That's what I was going to say is like at worst, you need to do what you did last year, which is you get your Jimmy Garcia. You need a guy who can strike some dudes out. Yeah. Which is what Garcia was doing. when you know when you acquired him and you need to at least get yourself another like J.T. Shagawa type of

dude to push out you know the Burgos's of the world or the Vargasus is or the Thorntons or whoever. Like if you push a couple guys out of this bullpen then you don't have to DFA Vargas because Vargas just can kind of be the where you're using Thornton for right? You just knock you just knock everyone down you know a spot.

Right. So yeah they definitely need somebody Burgos is at any point is going to get sent down. They need fresh arms and I wouldn't be shocked if that was today. Dorton's on the bubble always. And Legamina has an option left as well. So he's just too inconsistent. So those three guys are definitely, you know, tenuously hanging on to a job right now,

which gives the Mariners at least two or three options to go get better. And there's really not a ton happening in the farm system. like maybe Brandon Garcia at some point he's starting to throw the ball really well. So he might get added. Maybe today for Burgos, who knows? But even then, then there's still two spots that you can definitely upgrade in your bullpen.

And one of those upgrades needs to be a late inning guy. So I don't know who it is. But yeah, the bullpen needs help. Absolutely. No question. Arthur wants to know. I don't remember what episode it was, but in the off season you guys were asked

which iteration of the marriage you would say has the best chance of winning a championship, 2025, 2025, 26, or 2027. You both answer 2025. Would your answer stay the same at the midseason mark? Yeah, even more so now because of what you're getting out of Cal Raleigh,

because of how weak the American League is, because of all the reasons that we've talked about, you know, back when we did our, what was it Thursday, when we did our first half review and our second half preview, for all the reasons that we mentioned there, for reasons to be optimistic about this club in the second half. So, yeah,

I would say now even more, back when we when we said that even with the you know addition of like kate anderson and now you've signed cal to an extension and all those things yeah yeah i mean like you said it's it's mostly that the american league is so weak right now i mean we we saw seattle uh you know just obliterate the tigers and kind of broke them a little bit uh we saw the uh you know we saw them just take two or three from houston who was in general been playing good ball you caught them at a good time where they weren't playing particularly good baseball. They're so beat up right now.

Right. And that's the thing is that you're, they're probably going to be without parades for a month plus. We still have no idea when Yordon's coming back. That that's a team that is going to limp a little bit here over the next week or two. Do we know when Pena is coming back? It was supposed to be a two week injury. And we're on,

we're starting week three now. So I would think pretty soon. But yeah, like you have an opportunity here to, you know, make this a real race. And you've already dropped it from seven games to, to a four-game lead in the last four games of the regular season.

So, yeah, you know, there's still a shot here. You're all tied up again in terms of the tiebreaker. So that last series in Houston, it might not mean anything. Houston could be up by five, six games. At that point, it's over. But it might mean something, and it might end up being the tiebreaker on the line there. But yeah, they're so beat up. You figure at some point they're going to get painted back.

At some point, they'll get Alvarez back. You assume, but who knows at this point? and we'll see how bad it is for Paredes, but it looked pretty bad. That's not to mention the injuries to the pitching that have existed. So you have a down Astros team. You have a down American League. You've seen that you can play with anybody in the AAL. You can beat anybody in the AAL.

Unfortunately, anybody in the AAL could beat you. So it kind of works both ways there. But yeah, I think this is your best shot because you don't know what this thing's going to look like in 2020. You don't know what the American League is going to look like in 2020. you just don't know. So this is your best shot. You also have the farm system is as stacked as it could ever possibly be. And so, yeah, this is your best opportunity.

So, you know, it doesn't mean you don't have any chance in 26, 27, etc. But this is the best shot. No, but to say that 2027 is a better opportunity to win means that you really think that like Colth Emerson or Las Montes or Michael Royo or, you know, a couple of those guys, they're going to pop and they're going to pop right away. Yeah. Which I'm not, I'm not willing to say that. Yeah. And then, you know, you also have to factor in like maybe Randy a Rosarena leaves after 2026. Jaffe Crawford. Maybe you trade one of Logan Gilbert or George Kirby, you know, how are you going to move on from those guys? What is your club overall going to look like after you move on from those guys?

There's a lot that goes into it. So, yeah, I think it's also just kind of the safest call right now to say that 2025 is the best chance for them to win. All right, we are going to answer more of your questions than just a moment. But first, a reminder, this episode of the Lockdown Errors podcast is brought to you by Supply House. Get the supplies you need from the site made for the skilled trades. Supply House. Whether you're in plumbing, HVAC, or electrical work, Supply House is a reliable way to order products online. Their easy-to-use website is packed with helpful resources and the latest product info to help you get the job done right.

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Be sure to tune in to the Marriss Postcast with Anderson Hurst and Christopher Crawford available on both the Lockdown Merr's YouTube and podcast feeds. Let's get back into your questions here on Mailbag Monday. Tobas wants to know has the playoff expansion back in 2022 actually hurt the Mariner's during their contention window outside being able to play the Blue Jays. They haven't been the Wild Card 3. And it's made the wild card race way more competitive,

plus trade market leans towards seller-friendly. The thing that has hurt the mayor is the most here is their ownership group being cheap during the off-season in combination a little bit with the front office's risk aversion as well, which now puts even more of an emphasis on them being able to trade and acquire talent from the outside via the trade market, which to your point has been incredibly constricted even more so now because of the third wild card.

So kind of, but ultimately because of, you know, what starts at the top with this organization. Yeah. It's ownership is what's holding back the Mariners. And because of ownership's restrictions, it's holding back the front office and the front office. What's holding them back, like Ty said, is that their aggression meter is down. Like they're because they know that if they make a mistake, it could be catastrophic. because they don't have the financial flexibility to go out and fix problems. So their risk tolerance is down because the ownership has basically allowed them to take no risk whatsoever with their payroll.

And so, yeah, ownership's the big problem here. The third wild card, like, honestly, whatever, I don't, it was going to expand either way. Like, I wouldn't even be shocked if after the new CBA, they add another. team to the playoff mix, which don't want, but whatever. Like I said, it's probably going to happen. Just about every team in sports now gets half

of their league into the playoffs. So yeah, I think, obviously, yes, it is harder when you're kind of this fringe team to be buyers because there's fewer sellers. So you're not wrong in that case, but I think the

biggest detriment to the Mariners has nothing to do with the third wild card. and the trade market or anything like that. It's that they become so dependent on the trade market, specifically because they can't really do anything in the winter to kind of counteract it. So, yeah, the Mariners are consistently mediocre in the middle of the year because it's exactly where John Stanton and Chris Larson Wanted in to be. And it forces Jerry and Justin to basically nail the deadline every single summer

to have any kind of shot to actually make a deep playoff run. And to their credit, I feel like, like they've nailed a couple of the last deadlines. 2023 was a big whiff, but that was sandwiched in between two big success successes, although 24 much bigger success in 22, even though 22 led to the playoffs and 24 didn't, blah, blah, blah, blah. But yeah, it's, it sucks.

Like you're in a really unwinnable position. The third wild card contributes to that a little bit, but it is overwhelmingly the problem of Stanton and Larson and the ownership group. Yeah, it has a trickle-down effect. that leads to what you're talking about for sure. But yeah, it obviously just starts at the top. That's the main issue with this organization.

Yeah. Follow the money, right? Where does the money lead? Lead right to the top. Johnny wants to know, you think the Barons have called the A's about Tyler Sotom. He's not a left fielder and Nick Kurtz isn't going anywhere.

What would a trade package for him look like? So that's kind of interesting because, yeah, like you said, he doesn't really have a spot to play right now because he's definitely not an outfielder. And Kurtz is their first baseman. and obviously Brent Rucker is their DH. I guess my thing really is just like,

he's a bit redundant with what the issues of the roster ultimately are. He doesn't hit lefties. He can't hit lefties. He's a lefty bad who can't hit lefties. You have a couple of those. You also have an outfielder who shouldn't be playing the outfield who also can't hit lefties. You have first baseman who really probably shouldn't be playing first base, should be playing in the outfield who also can't hit lefties.

Like you're not going to DH. I think strong side platoon hitter is is like not in other words a left-handed hitting platoon guy is not something that's going to fit well in this ballpark unless you can do something else plus and Soderstrom doesn't he doesn't play defense he doesn't run the bases so like if you're able to use Kanzone or Rayleigh to address a different need on the trade market and then you turn around and you add Soderstrom as kind of your replacement for who you trade, then sure. It works that way. I just don't think that

this works if Rayleigh and Canzon are still on the roster. Right. And I just... By the way, that's the same reason that I... That's the same like issue that I would bring up with Josh Naylor, Nathaniel Lowe, etc. Right. I mean, at least low, it's lefties and righties. Although this year he's not really hitting anybody.

Yeah, no, no. But yeah, traditionally, Naler and that's really, it's interesting. Like first base is such a need. And like it's usually one of the places you're most likely to improve on. But when you actually look at the first base market this summer, it's a lot of dudes who are essentially what you already have. It's just they're performing right now. And Rayleigh kind of isn't. So it's like, you know, the question is like, how big of an upgrade is that?

Well, if you trade Rayleigh, then it fits just fine. but what are you going to get for Rayleigh right now? Is it worth trading Rayleigh to trade for a rental like O'Hern and Naylor? I don't know. It might be. I'm not saying it's not. But it might not be. So first base is not as like easy of a position as it usually is because most of the bigger guys that are out there are more or less slightly better versions of what you already have.

And so there's a cost analysis there. Like is it worth giving up X to get, you know, 5%? better at first base when we already have three of the same guys on this roster. It might be. I'm not saying it's not. But again, it's just, it's one of those things that you have to consider. So Soderstrom not being able to hit lefties,

pretty disqualifying for me. Again, if he could play a plus outfield or if he could, you know, steal bases or anything like that, then yeah, but he can't. And I think you're going to end up paying for club control here,

more than you're going to pay for the production. Kind of like the Vinny Pasquantino. conversation we've had. So I'm not saying no. And it is an interesting idea. And kudos for thinking outside the box here because I haven't heard anybody bring up Soderstrum. But it just seems a little too redundant with the current roster.

But if you could trade Rayleigh to like an outfield desperate team and Soderstrom's their replacement there. Yeah, that'd be an interesting one. Again, it would probably cost a lot. But maybe you get Soderstrom and like Jeffrey Springs. And then you kind of kill two birds with one stone. and maybe Rayleigh's in the package to the, you know, to the A's. I don't know.

But like, yeah, that could be interesting. So I wouldn't say, you know, great idea, absolutely. But also not the worst idea. Like, you could make it work. It's just, yep, there's other moves that need to be made around it. For sure. For sure. Yeah.

All right. We got a couple more of your questions to go over here in just a moment. But first, a reminder of this episode of the lockdown era's podcast is once again brought to you by Fandle. summer sports are in full swing and whether you're all about baseball under the lights golf on the green or high-stakes soccer action fan duel is the best way to make every game even more exciting i mean you're already following the action why not make it a little more thrilling with fan duel you can get in on the game while your friends are getting sunburned at the beach i've been using fan duel to track my favorite matchups and the app keeps it fresh with new daily promotions and fun ways to bet it's easy to use

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Let's get back into these questions here. Nightrunner wants to know, can you give us your take on Victor LaBrata? He has the third best OPS on the current Tacoma roster, just slightly ahead of Tyler Locklear. He has fourth, fifth outfielder type of dude. I kind of think of him as like a left-handed Guillermo Heredia. I don't really think that there's a way for him to fit on this current roster since he's a left-handed hitting outfielder.

But yeah, he's like one of those spark plug towards the end of the bench type of dudes. I think he might be able to carve out a role somewhere in the major leagues. I just, I don't think that's going to be in Seattle. Yeah, keep in mind when you do the whole, like, he's got the third best OPS or whatever in AAA. He's only been there for like three weeks.

That's also a good point, yeah. Yeah. He's also, I believe, 25 now, 26. So, yeah. Older prospect. So again, it's not like you never find guys who are 25, 26. I mean, this team's had some good luck in that regard. They found Dillimore.

And the last, you know, 50 played appearances notwithstanding, that's worked out fantastic. And, you know, they found Jose Caballero and they got a lot of value out of him. So it's not impossible. Moubrata puts the ball in play. He'll steal bases. He's a pretty decent defender. He's got a little bit more pop than,

you guys would think. So, yeah, he's fine, but, like, he is to me, he's very similar to Jonathan Claese where it's like, I'm not losing sleep over this guy. And I'm not counting on him to be anything more than like, hey, can you maybe, you know, could you maybe give us a week where you're like, oh, wow, look at this guy. He's stealing some bags and, oh, he's taking walks and he's doing some good things. Like, sure, he might be a fourth, fifth outfielder. He's not a starter.

Never has been. it's never really been part of his profile. But there's pretty good bat speed there. Again, there's some decent pop. He draws walks. He's fast. So, yeah, I would say fourth-fifth outfielder, fine. I don't think he's a fit on the current roster.

So, like, I'm not sure calling him up really does anything. Although, you have Dylan Moore, Miles Master Boney right now who aren't really doing anything. Master Boney just isn't even playing, really. But, yeah. You got on base three times yesterday. Yeah, I mean, when he played, he's fine. It's just he's first starting like a week and a half. So yeah, it's one of those things. I don't think he's a good fit for the roster right now. But yeah, he could definitely be a guy who,

you know, sneaky September call up type of dude who comes off the bench and gives you some value there. He could be that type of player. So I wouldn't consider him to be a dude of a prospect or anything like that. But he's nice ork depth. And yeah, I think he probably could survive at the major league level. and give you something for a couple weeks. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up getting traded here in the next couple weeks for like one of these relievers that we were talking about. Yeah, I mean. Or maybe he's like a throw in on a bigger deal.

Sure. Like he's probably no more or less valuable than Jonathan Claus A or RJ Shrek. And he flipped those guys for, you know, Jimmy Garcia and Justin Turner. So yeah, you might actually be able to get a major contributor out of him. again he's just a little bit older so that that's why his little bit older and he just doesn't really fit what the roster needs right now so yeah next question here from dan how does the mariner's remaining strength of schedule compare to their fellow playoff race opponents uh so obviously huge caveat you know we don't know what the pitching matchups are going to be what the situations

are going to be who's hurt who's not blah blah blah blah but that all that said uh since you you did ask And you guys can also look this up for yourself. It's on tankathon.com. Pretty easy to find. But right now, the mayors have the 23rd remaining strength of schedule. So they have a pretty favorable schedule.

They're remaining. Yeah, ath lowest. Their remaining opponent winning percentage is 488. So, yeah. So obviously they got matchups against the Astros still. they wrap up the season against the Dodgers, got the red hot brewers coming to town. Still have three against the Mets and the Phillies and the Padres,

but then they also have three against the Rockies and three against the White Sox and six more against the A's and three against the Braves and three against the Orioles. So yeah. The Astros, though, have the third most favorable schedule remaining in baseball. 42 remaining opponent winning percentage. They still have three against the top.

Tigers, three against the Blue Jays, six against the Yankees, three against the Ms, of course, six against the Red Sox and three against the Diamondbacks, but they also have three against the Rockies, Nationals, seven against the A's, three against the Braves, seven against the Orioles and three against the Marlins. So yikes. Yeah, the Tigers, 46 winning percentage, but they're going to win their division, so that doesn't really, that's not super relevant to the Mariners, except for seating potentially. yeah Yankees are around 500 for their remaining strength of schedule rays are around 500

Toronto's around 500 then you got like Boston's in the top six and that's that's really it I mean Texas if you're still like mildly concerned about them they're in the top five but yeah all right now that's going to do it for a show thank you so much for joining us here on the lockdown era's podcast for Colby Patnode I'm Tiding Azales.

Be sure give us a follow on Twitter at L0 underscore Marrers. You can follow me at Tiding Azalus and Colby at C-Pat-11. That's C-PAT-1-1. We're also on Blue Sky. You can follow me at TDG, Colby at MLB Colby in the show at Lockdown Merrers. You can also find us on Instagram at Lockdown Merrers. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day, and we'll see you next time. Peace.