Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Is Carlos Rodón Worth the Risk For Seattle?

Episode Date: January 12, 2022

Hosts Ty Dane Gonzalez and Colby Patnode answer some leftover mailbag questions, including whether or not free agent LHP Carlos Rodón makes sense for the Mariners, how they feel Robbie Ray will perform in the latter stages of his contract, which M's prospects will crack MLB Pipeline's top-100 and more.Be sure to follow or subscribe to Locked On Mariners wherever you prefer your podcasts! For questions and other inquiries, email: [e-mail] the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @danegnzlz | @CPat11For more of Ty and Colby, check out their Patreon: patreon.com/controlthezone/Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.BetOnline AGThere is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You are Locked-on Mariners, your daily Seattle Mariners podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome to Locked-on Mariners, your home for Daily Seattle Mariner's News and Analysis. Thank you so much for making us your first listen of the day. We are free and available on all platforms. And today is Wednesday, January 12th, 2022. I am your host, Taday Gonzalez, joined as always by my. co-host Colby Patnode.

Follow us on Twitter at L-O- underscore Mariners. You can follow me at Dane Gonzalez. That's D-A-N-E, G-N-Z-L-Z, and Colby at C-P-A-E-T-1-1. Be sure to also check out our Patreon, where we talk about Mariners even more. Also get into some non-baseball talk twice a week that we're starting to get away from that

and starting to talk more baseball on there. It's just, you know, with the lockout and stuff. The topics have been, let's say, limited. But visit patreon.com forward slash control the zone for more information on that if you are interested. And on today's episode of Lockdown Mariners, we had some questions you submitted after we recorded our weekly mailbag on Monday. So we're actually going to get to those on today's show. And that's going to be our show sheet for the day. And if this is your first time joining us, welcome to the show.

If you like what you hear, give us a follow or subscribe. Wherever you're listening to this, we greatly appreciate it. So let's start here with a question from Curtis Christensen at courtesy baseball, who asks, how real of a possibility is free agent left-handed pitcher Carlos Rodan for the Mariners? Colby? It's a possibility. I wouldn't say it's a good one. There's some legitimate concerns with Carlos Rodon.

Obviously, he had a shoulder thing that kind of kept him out for a little while. And then when he came back, the velocity was down pretty significantly. he was able to find it in a in a playoff appearance. He was sitting 99, but again, that's one outing. So, yeah, it's tough. And, you know, there really hasn't been a whole lot of chatter, you know, surrounding Rodon. What little there has been did link the Mariners to him.

At least they were interested at one point. We don't know if that's still the case. But, yeah, I would say it's not likely. But you can see the appeal. I mean, it's just, it's tough to give this guy a long-term deal. He's 29. He's kind of only really done this once in his entire career. And even that had some injury concerns surrounding it.

And is the, you know, shoulder or something that's going to linger? We just don't know. So there's a lot of upside to Rodon. There's also a lot of downside. So, yeah, just it's it's going to be based on what the Mariners think they can get out of him. He's pretty similar to Robbie Ray and that he's going to strike a lot of guys out. Fastball slider mostly change up curveball. He uses sparingly.

So there's kind of that idea like, is he too similar to Robbie Ray? Or is that even a problem? We don't really know. So I would say probably not going to happen, but is it, you know, a realistic? option. I would say, yeah. Just it's realistic. Like I wouldn't be shocked to be signed with the Mariners. But I wouldn't consider him to be the, you know, their target. I guess is how I would word that.

Yeah, I think the Mariners are going to want more stability and some safety because they're already kind of taking a chance on Robbie Ray when you think about it because they're really, you know, buying in on the one huge year for him. And so I think, you know, that's why you're kind of seeing them more in the markets for, you know, some of the guys on the A's, the guys on the Reds, etc. I just, I think there's just so much risk with Rodon. Obviously, you love the upside. You got to love the upside. You got to love what you saw in the first half of last season when he was pumping out 99 and all this crazy stuff. But, you know, when he came back, like you said, you know, the velocity ticked down. And, you know, and the whole shoulder thing was kind of a kind of a major issue in the building.

up to the postseason and everything. So, you know, that's obviously, you know, just something that you naturally have to keep an eye on and have to be worried about. And if his price tag is going to be too high, considering all the factors playing into it, I mean, you really just, I don't know. I don't think the Mariners are really that team that can take that risk right now with just everything else. when you think about how the rest of their rotation is built up. And, you know, I think they just need some, you know, some safety that they can put right there smack dab in the middle of that rotation, you know, number three, number four, what have you. So, yeah, I, you know, I would be excited by it, certainly. That's not a doubt in my mind whatsoever. But I think for the Mariners, though,

I just, I would be pretty surprised to, uh, to actually see them get heavily involved in that market unless his price takes an absolute massive dive. Um, but we'll see. So appreciate the question, Curtis. Let's move on here to, uh, Daisy and the dingo who asks, uh, and that's at Daisy's dingo's on Twitter, by the way. What's your gut feeling as to how Robbie Ray, who we just talked about, will perform in years three to five of his contract.

So that's also assuming that he makes it to years four and five with that player option that he has. But Colby, what's your feeling on that? And honestly, you know, if he does make it to years four and five, that means something's gone pretty wrong, right? I mean, you probably in a perfect world, you want them to pitch so well that, you know, those option years are, or you'd be dumb to take them. but you know he does take them and he's still good like it's it's fine so in terms of you know how do i think he's going to perform in the three to five years i think he's going to be worth the money overall i would i would expect his walk rates to uh trend more towards his career norms but i don't think they're going to go back to where they were i think he's figured

some things out mechanically um So I think Robbie Ray is probably a guy who we can say average control, at least, whereas in the past, that just really wasn't the case. He's going to continue to miss bats. There's nothing really concerning in terms of injury with Robbie Ray. So I would just assume that the 6.7% based on ball percentage is probably going to push back up to, you know, 8, 9, 10%. So, yeah, I think, you know, expecting him to be a side. young contender again is probably pushing it a little bit too much. But overall, I think he's going to be worth the contract, whether he pitches three years or five years,

$23 million a year just isn't that difficult for the team to get their money back. You basically has to be two and a half three win pitcher over the duration of the contract. So you could easily knock out two or three years worth of that in year one. So, yeah, I would just expect the walks to go up. a little bit, you know, which would lead to more runs. So I think he's probably going to be a mid mid threes, a RA guy, still going to strike out a lot of guys, still going to go deep into games, probably give you a hundred 80 innings a year, you know,

probably going to have a lot more success on fly balls too. Yeah, we'll see. I don't know how much I buy that. I think sometimes we overrate that, the ballpark factor. But it is quite a difference to go from the American League east to, Seattle, the AL West. So we'll see if that plays a role. I just, you know, I don't like to count on that, that type of thing.

So how, you know, overall, though, you know, when it comes to those latter years of the contract, how are you feeling about how he might be able to sustain his level of play or, you know, regress rather during that stretch? Yeah, you know, he's only 30 years old. and we've seen guys pitchers adjust to, you know, who they are. And we know Robbie Ray is willing to make adjustments. He just did it. And he got paid handsomely for it.

So I think he's probably going to be fine. Again, I wouldn't expect number one or number two, you know, outings for the duration of his contract, however long that may be. but I feel like, you know, expecting a low in two, mid-range three for the next three years is probably pretty probable and probably pretty probable. And I think he'll be fine. I really don't. I think the odds of this contract blowing up in the Mariners face is approximately 3%. It's just there's just really not all that much that I'm concerned about Robbie Ray going forward.

Yeah, I'm not too concerned about it either. I think now that he's kind of figured out the command a bit, he's worked through his mechanics. I think he's going to be able to sustain that and be able to, you know, pretty much perform at, you know, probably not, obviously not at the level that he did this year. That would be ridiculous if he was able to sustain that over the next five years. Hey, maybe, hopefully. But, you know, I think he's going to be able to, I don't think he's going to be able to. I don't think he's going to regress back to where he was in Arizona, basically, is what I'm trying to say, where he was walking a ton of guys, etc. Like, I think that's kind of in the past for him.

And I think this Robbie Ray, some version of it, something that's similar to this is what we're going to see over the next few years. And then on the latter stretch of that, I still think that he's going to be a number three, number four. If he doesn't, you know, if he does accept that player option and sticks around and pitches. out those, you know, year four and year five on the contract, which is considering the trajectory that he's on. And if he is able to pitch at that level, he's probably not going to take that, but that's obviously a conversation to have a lot longer down the road than from now. But yeah, so thank you for the question. Daisy. Daisy actually has a couple of other questions that are going to be pretty big topics for us for the rest of the show. But before we get into those,

let me tell you about Bilt Bar. It's the New Year, so that means New Year's resolutions, and if yours is about getting fit or eating healthier, make sure you include Bilt Bar in your plan. Bilt Bar is the protein bar that tastes like a candy bar, maybe even better than a candy bar. You want to eat healthy, but it just gets so boring

by like week three, you might be thinking, this is just not worth it. Where is the chocolate? Well, Bilt bars are covered in 100% real chocolate, and most Bilt Bar is even contain 130 calories, four grams of sugar, four net carbs, 17 grams of protein. Meanwhile, compare that to a candy bar, which usually has around 240 calories, 30 grams of sugar, and dozens of net carbs. Now, here's an idea for the new year. Go to all your secret treat stashes at home in the pantry, at the office, in the car, wherever. There are all the

sugar of your calorie-filled treats and replace them with built bars. So when you're craving a snack or treat, you can reach for something that's healthy and tastes incredible. And there's so many flavors that you choose from. Coconut almond, peanut butter brownie, raspberry, cookies and cream, salted caramel,

mint brownie, and many more. In fact, Built is always coming out with new limited time flavors, so check out built.com often to see what's new.

So go to build.com. Use promo code Locked 15 and get 15% off your order. That's LLC KED15 for 15% off your order at built.com. You're listening

to Locked on Mariners. Thank you again for making us your first listen of the day just like you do here every day. We greatly appreciate the support. Let's go to Daisy and the dingo again at Daisy's dingoes who asked us to predict every mariner in the upcoming 2022 preseason top 100 prospects list in their estimated range,

along with guys who we think are on the fringe. So I assume Daisy means the pipeline top 100, the MLB pipeline top 100. that's the most popular one. So Colby, I'll start with you. What are we feeling in terms of how many Mariners are going to end up on that list? And some guys who you think are going to be on the fringe to bust through over the course of the season. Yeah, I think, you know, the lowest we're going to see is three. I think we could see up to six in the top 100.

I would say five is most likely. But yeah, it's going to be somewhere between three to six. I think four or five is highly likely. So, yeah, obviously Julio is going to be probably top five. Chancy's number one, sure. But I think pipeline's going to jump Bobby Witt and Adley Rutchman over him. So Julio, top five. Noelvi Marte, I could see being, you know, top 10, maybe top 15, somewhere in that range.

They seem to like him. Kirby right now is ranked 33rd in their ranks. I think he's going to be top 20 when they do the re-rank. So those are three that I know for sure are going to be in the top 100. Emerson Hancock is 34 right now. I think he's going to drop down. And based on some of the comments from other prospect guys, he's a guy who might drop entirely out of the top 100,

which would be stupid. But I think he probably ends up somewhere in the 50, 60, 70 range. Somewhere 55 to 65 was what I was going to say. So I think he's probably somewhere in there. And then Harry Ford is kind of the wild card here. Right now he is 98. So he is a fringe guy by pipeline.

Again, I think that's stupid. I would have Harry Ford somewhere in the 50s. but I think pipeline's probably going to keep him somewhere in the 90s, which will look silly when, you know, two years from now he's a top five prospect like Noel V. Marte. So those are the five that I would predict are going to be in it. Fringe guys, I think Brandon Williamson is really should be getting a lot more credit or a lot more attention of the top 100 guy.

Yeah, like back end. Yeah. Yeah, no, he should be in the in the 85 to 100 range. Probably. And he might be. And that's the sixth guy that I'm, maybe they do it. But at the end of the year,

they still had Zach Deloche ahead of him, which is stupid. They also hate Matt Brash for some reason. I mean, yeah, 10th. Obviously he's not as going to be advised out. So I mean,

yeah, they're convinced that he is a reliever, which silly. Yeah, he is not worse than Connor Phillips. He's not worse than Levi Stout. He's, he's,

Like I would put him ahead of Williamson and I really like Williamson. Yeah, I I don't know like me personally. I would say that Brash should be on the fringe. I don't know if he's actually going to be on the fringe. I don't know how much maybe their opinion has changed of him over the last few months. I hope for the better. So I would include him in there just in case because I mean every other outlet loves Matt Brash for the most part. Williamson, like I said, should be in it.

But I would assume he's probably on the fringe as well. I'm going to go five as well. I think Harry Ford does survive, even though that he's kind of on the edge there, kind of hanging by a thread at 98. I think he will survive. I think he will make it. I don't think Hancock is going to completely fall out.

Like you said, that would be incredibly stupid if that happened. I agree that George Kirby is probably going to be top 20. I'd say Julio probably drops a spot to number three. He's at number two right now. I think Bobby Witt is going to get a huge bump there. And then Noel Vee. Yeah, I think I wouldn't be surprised

if Nolvi stays top 10. He's number 10 right now, correct? 11. Oh, he's number 11? I could see him in the top 10. but we'll we'll see we'll see what you know what happens with guys like anthony volpe and jack lighter and um you know those guys jason domingas um you know some of the some of those other guys that have quite a bit of helium right now um so but overall yeah i think it's uh i think it's gonna stay

the same where it is for the most part for the mariners you know obviously like some positions are going to change and whatnot um you know ranks but um i think they're still going to have five the same five that they do right now and Williamson Brash those guys should be close could you imagine if they put in Zach De Loach in the top 100

over Williamson and Brash I could because pipeline is sometimes that bad um yeah it's it's really weird look I like Zach DeLoge I like Zach Deloge more than Colby frankly but um I like him

I think he will be a major league at some point. I just I think that there's a very limited ceiling there for Zach Deloge. So that would be a mistake putting him over Brandon Williamson and Matt Brash because those two guys, you're talking about two guys that have a ton of tools that are really exciting that continue to up their stock and are knocking on the door of Major League Baseball. I mean, those guys should be those guys should be in the mix but you know pipeline is sometimes not so great

so we'll see what their what their decisions are but yeah I'm gonna I'm gonna agree with Colby here and say that the Mariners get five the same five that they have right now so we're gonna do some over unders presented by Daisy dingo

and in just a moment but real quick a reminder of this episode of Lockdown Mariners is brought to you by betonline.ag Bet Online would like to wish you a happy new betting year as we continue our March to the playoffs and beyond. Bet Online remains the number one spot for all the best sports wagering action for 2022. New year and a new updated desktop of mobile website. So sign up today and receive your 50% welcome bonus on your first deposit.

Just use our promo code locked on. That's LOC, KED, O, N to get started. From football, basketball, hockey, boxing, and UFC, to your favorite Vegas casino games. Don't wait to take advantage of all the amazing offers available for 2022. Bet Online is the fastest and easiest way to wager on all your favorite sports. Bet online where the game starts. All right, Colby, so we have some over-unders to work with here.

Daisy and the dingo handpick them. These are steamer projections for 2022. And we're just going to go one by one here. starting with Mitch Hanager, where Steamer has him projected for a WRC plus of 1.15. What are you feeling on Hanigur for 115? You taking that over? Yes. All right.

By how much do you think? Because he was 120 this year. So he wasn't two, he was only five points better than where they, they have him projected. Yeah, probably only five points, give or take. I think he comes pretty close to repeating what he did last year. Ty hates Mitch Aniger so he'll probably take the under What the hell? Well it's true

Wait he has 39 home runs this year I thought he hit 35 wow He was almost a 40 home run guy geez And Ty went on a Twitter rant in August And was like this guy's a bum get him off my team It wasn't a Twitter rant it was a rant on on CTZ And I was I was salty okay I was salty about the at bat that he

had against Texas with with the bases loaded and just won out and he like he had it was a bad bad anyway very bad a salty all right and I and I I admitted my mistake I didn't necessarily say he was a bum but I said you know I you know it doesn't matter we don't need to go down there road more or less so one thing I would like to see for Mitch is I want to see him get his walk right back up 318 on base percentage is better play discipline stop chasing so much man he needs to be at the 3.30 mark. That's not what you did. You used to not chase as much. 2021 was not Mitch Hanigar's best year. Despite the record number of home runs. If he could just be a 333 on base guy, he would be a borderline all-star. 318 is not going to be done.

I'll take the slide over as well. I'll say that he lands at like the 117, 118 range. Yeah. All right. So Jared Kellnick's Strikeout rate. 24% What are you feeling? He was at 28.1 to end the year in his rookie season.

So he wasn't too far off from that, honestly. Yeah, and kind of trending down. He still struck out about 27, about 26% of the time in September. Yeah, I'm going to say I'm going to go under But I think it's So under 24%

Under 24 and a half I think it's going to be like 23, 24% Um See I'll take the under I think we're going to see a little bit more Discipline out of Kellnick On pitches that are just outside the zone So yeah I would I would count on

Improvement across the board for Kellnick So dropping your strikeout percentage by You know 3% in one season it's doable yeah I'm gonna go to I'm gonna take the slight over here I think he's gonna be like 25 25 and a half

26% strikeout rate which you know if he can get on base more the power is still there all that stuff you know then that's that's fine that's livable you can work with that

it's not ideal but for a second year for him after the year that he just had you can live with it I think if every else comes along so um tie france ops of 793 i don't care the question wasn't if you cared or not the question is do you think he's going to have an ops north or south of 793 and my answer is i could not care less that's great now pick no don't come to me with these weak questions daisy nobody cares about ops it's a flawed stat um and the answer is over i'm taking the over

as well. I think he's going to have a monster here. I don't think we've seen the best of Thai France. Nope. And that's pretty wild considering the fact that he went 291, 368, 445 with 129 WSC Plus and 18 homeruns last year. And only struck

out 16 and a half percent of the time. Yes. Gaze. Never use OPS again. It's worthless. You're fun. Robbie Ray. Walks per 9. 3.34. Over. I'm gonna go under.

Look at me. I'm Mr. Optimistic. All right. Well, I mean, like, he got it down to 242. I don't think he's going to replicate that. But 3.34, I think that's a little bit extreme. Considering the changes that he made to his mechanics, he probably hovers around the three mark,

but I don't think he's going to border on three and a half, though. All right. I think that's a bit extreme. Chris Flexen FIP of 451 Ooh So we we call on out the significant regression for for Chris Flexon I mean that seems like something Ty would do

So No I feel I feel pretty comfortable with Flexen Like I know what he is He had a FIPA 389 this year by the way Yeah I think his FIP's probably going to be around four this year maybe 4.2. I would expect some regression since the league has a book on him now, but I don't think it's going to be drastic because, you know,

Flexen's a pretty smart guy. He was able to adapt multiple times throughout the year. You know, sometimes he threw his curve ball a lot. Sometimes he threw the change up a lot, the cutter. Like he understands how to make adjustments. So, yeah, I feel like he's going to be a solid 4-2-fip guy. So I'll take the under. Yeah, I'll take the under.

I'll take a slight under. I do think there's going to be regression. Ty hates Chris Flexen confirmed. Clearly, clearly. But I, yeah, I still think he's going to be solid, you know, and I agree with you. I think he's going to be around that 4-2 range. All right, Marco Gonzalez.

184 innings pitch. So he's thrown over 184 once in this, career. It was 203 in 2019. He was fully healthy. Obviously this year he wasn't healthy for the full season. And just kind of overall had a down year by his standards. So what do you think? Is he going to be able to last in games longer and stay healthy this year? I'm going to take the under. It's because 184 is he can't miss more than basically. basically three or four starts. And I think that's a lot to ask of any starting pitcher.

In 2021, he could certainly do it. He was on pace to do it in 2020 as well. And, you know, in 25 starts, he's still 8, 143 innings. So it's not like he can't do it. He's basically been on that pace every year for the last three years. It's just, you know, again, it's a lot to ask for any starter not to miss three or four starts. And then even if he misses three, he still has to average six, inning to start to get to 184.

Like that's, that's a lot to ask. So I'll take the under. I would probably take the under for pretty much any pitcher, honestly, because I just think that's generally unfair to set those kind of expectations on anyone because there's just naturally, you know,

with pitchers and just the nature of baseball things happen. You know, things get in the way of being able to make all your starts. So, yeah, I'm going to take the under. hopefully he gets to like you know the 160ish range i think that would be i think that would be great for the mariners um and great for him as well uh you know that's where he was in 2018 he was at 166 and

two thirds um if he can get to like that that's great that'd be uh that'd be fantastic um all right so couple uh the last two that we got here uh adam fraser batting average of 264 over all right he makes he makes too much contact like to not hit you know 260 270 he's only been under 264 once by the way that was

2020 short the season yeah yeah he had 230 we could throw out for a lot of reasons yeah I think he's at least 270 yeah he doesn't strike out much like he makes a ton of contact

like you said like it's just he's naturally going to find some holes he's going to get a ton of singles all that stuff um yeah i'm gonna say he like lands in the 280 range pretty firm you know 275 280 yeah somewhere in there um so yeah i think that's where we're adam fraser's going to be this year um all right and then logan gilbert an er a of 417 i'm going to take the under on this i think logan gilbert's actually going to be really good this year Ty thinks Logan Gilbert's going to win the Siong. Yep. You heard it here first.

You're starting to get worse at that, by the way. It's because I'm, you know, hanging out with you so much. I'll take the under, but I think that's pretty good. Like, that's pretty fair. which seems insane to me is steamer projects you know steamer projects him to have a 1.8 F4 I will bet be over on that aggressively yeah same

I think he's going to be in the 3 to 4 one range like I think he's going to be really good this year I mean he was worth 2.2 for this year and like he really was only working with one pitch for most of the year so yeah and they they think that over a full season's worth of work he's only going to be worth 1.8 come on that's uh that's absolutely nonsense honestly but um yeah those are all the uh the overunders uh that daisy dingo put together

uh thank you so much daisy and uh that's going to do it for our show thank you so much for joining us here on lockdown mariners for colby pat note i'm ty d and gonzalez be sure to give us a follow on twitter at l underscore mariners you can follow me at dane gnz ls z ls zl and colby at c pat 11 that's P-A-T-1-1. You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode. And thank you again for making us your first listen of the day, just like you do here every day. Now make your second listen to the day. Locked-on bets, your daily one-stop shop for all your gambling needs. Locked on bets hosted by your boy Q with expert analysis and an insight from Lee Sterling.

And just like us, their show is free and available wherever you get your podcast. So have yourself a beautiful baseball day. and be sure to submit your trade proposals, your Mariners trade proposals for Fan Fiction Friday. We'll see you then. Peace.