Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Is Scott Servais the Best Manager in the AL West?

Episode Date: March 9, 2022

Hosts Ty Dane Gonzalez and Colby Patnode explain why Scott Servais is the best manager in the AL West, where MLB and the MLBPA are at in their negotiations to end the lockout and why the notion that teams like the 2021 Mariners "overachieve" is silly.Be sure to follow or subscribe to Locked On Mariners wherever you prefer your podcasts! For questions and other inquiries, email: [e-mail] the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @danegnzlz | @CPat11For more of Ty and Colby, check out their Patreon: patreon.com/controlthezone/Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.Rock AutoAmazing selection. Reliably low prices. All the parts your car will ever need. Visit RockAuto.com and tell them Locked On sent you. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You are Locked-on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome to Locked-on Mariners. Today is Wednesday, March 9th, 2022. Thank you so much for making us your first listen of the day. I am your host, Taddy Gonzalez. Join, as always, by my co-host, Colby Patnode.

Follow us on Twitter at L-O- underscore Mariners. You can follow me at Dane Gonzalez. It's D-A-N-E, G-N-Z-L-Z. and Colby at C. Pat 11, that's C-P-A-T-1-1. Be sure to also check out our Patreon where we talk about the Mariners even more and also get into some non-baseball talk twice a week. Visit patreon.com

forward slash control zone for more information on that if you are interested. And on today's episode of Lockdown Mariners, we're going to be talking about where Scott's service ranks compared to the other four managers in the AOL West. We're also going to be talking about the latest developments and the negotiations between MLB and the MLBPA. And then Colby's going to tell you about an epiphany.

He's had about the Mariners and how the fan base, including ourselves, have viewed their success in 2021. And if this is your first time joining us, welcome to the show. If you like what you hear, give us a follow or subscribe. Wherever you listen to this, we greatly appreciate it. So not much has changed in terms of the managerial ranks in the, in the West. Bob Melvin has since departed Oakland and is now the manager of the Padres. He has been replaced with Marc Cotsay. But the rest of the teams are still, still have their managers in place.

Dussie Baker in Houston, Joe Madden in Anaheim and Chris Woodward in Texas and of course, Scott Service and Seattle. So Colby, how do you feel Scott stacks up against the rest of the pack? Best manager in the American League West over future Hall of Famers Joe Madden and Dusty Baker. Yep. Boom. I really don't. And this is one of those subjective things. Like, what do you care?

Does culture matter? Culture building matter? Does dealing with the media matter? Does in-game strategy matter? Do managers matter at all? How do you quantify it? Like there's a lot of factors that go into deciding who's a good manager, who's a bad manager. We almost can't even rank Mark Kott.

say because we don't know. There's no background there. Maybe he's very good. Maybe he's bad. Both are just as like. He's just kind of number five by default right now because it's just, it's unknown. Yeah. I mean, I would say he's, yeah.

I mean, like basically it's a non-rank, but just because we have to, we'll put him five. Chris Woodward for me is four. I just, just seems like a dude, honestly. And then I don't know. the way that he handled the Fernando Tatis situation either. Yeah, yeah. Then probably Madden.

It's tough because, like, Madden used to be a very, like, forward-thinking manager. And in certain ways, he is, but, like, there's really no denying that the last few years have been rough for his resume. The culture in Chicago kind of collapsed on him. You know, so far appears he hasn't built one in Anaheim. It just feels like he's a guy who's living on a reputation right now, more so than the actual, you know, more so than the actual value of him being the manager. So I think he's kind of a reputation over results guy right now.

Still, I would say, pretty solid manager, but I think the time for him to have been, like, considered a great man, the best in the league, that's come and gone. There just hasn't been enough of a track, record since, you know, winning the World Series to justify that. Dusty Baker, not a huge fan of Dusty. Played the victim a lot last year, but he does, he does seem to build good culture wherever

he goes. And obviously, you know, it's a little tough because he has such a loaded team that, you know, winning, obviously, it's expected and, you know, the team didn't win the World Series or anything like that. You just go to Scott's service. You look at what he did last year. Young team, everybody thinks they overachieved. We'll talk about that later. They had a great record in one-run games, mainly because their bullpen was used incredibly well and efficiently. You know, you talk about all the distractions we know that happened in the clubhouse last year. There was a lot of division there. He weathered it all. And, you know, he took arrows for John Stanton.

He took some arrows for Jerry to Poto. There was the big, obviously, you know, Kendall Graveman trade. He had to try and maneuver around. The way that he spoke out about Kevin Mather when that situation happened. Had his leadership in that moment. Yep. It's just everything. And Scott Service isn't a perfect manager.

There isn't a perfect manager. But there's a couple things we can't deny. And one of them is that he is an excellent builder of culture, which is a huge deal. And the other thing we can't deny is that Scott, for the most part, was very good last year. And that's evident by their record in one-run games and his effective use of the bullpen. And the fact that they won 90 games when most people thought that they were, you know, 75 to 80 win team. That comes down to Scott Services culture. And last year for the first time, it felt like his in-game management was a plus instead of a neutral or a negative.

Maybe he's getting better at it. Maybe he got a little bit lucky. or maybe the results were so good that when he did screw up, we didn't really notice it. It's all possible. But to me, it's a very simple question. Which manager from the American League West do you want running your baseball team?

Right now, I'm taking Scott's service over any of the other guys. So he's number one for me. Yeah, I think Scott is the best manager for this particular Mariners team and how it's constructed the way that it's being built, the way that the culture is being established, not only at the major league level,

but throughout the minor leagues as well. There's continuity there. And that's the testament also to Andy McKay and those folks there. So, but overall, yeah, I think the way that he was able to navigate this past season with the Kevin Mather's situation, with the divide in the folks that wanted to get vaccinated and not get the vaccine on how he, you know, led,

that charge in trying to educate his players on the vaccine and everything. And dealing with the Kind of Graemean trade fallout and dealing with, you know, injuries and everything that went into it, a lineup that genuinely just lacked really any sense of depth. You know, being able to endure some of some really disappointing developments like Jared Kellner coming up and struggling and Kyle Lewis getting hurt and still being able to, you know, ban more or less a group of misfits together and be able to go toe to toe with a lot of really good teams.

And obviously not all of that falls on Scott. That's also, you know, very much on the players. But, you know, at the end of the day, you know, he is a fantastic leader for this particular group of men. And I think you can see it with someone like Jared Kelnick that it's appreciated by the players. And maybe not everyone is a fan of Scott's service. They don't all have to be. But you can see that he does leave an impression on his players that they do want to

play for him, at least most of them do. And that's fairly rare in baseball. You know, usually managers kind of fall in the back. you know, they, not a lot of people talk about them. Not a lot of people, you know, really can, can grasp the impact that they have on, on their club. But Scott Service's impact is very clear. And, and he's not afraid to speak out. He's not afraid to speak up for his players either.

And, and that's something that I, as a fan, I really appreciate as well. You know, I was kind of on the fence about him for the last few years. But this past year really won me over with Scott. I think he's the absolute perfect guy to run this team right now. You know, we had had conversations not, you know, basically a year ago from today about, you know, who is the manager they should get when they actually are trying to win. Seems like they already had that guy. It's Scott's service.

And like you said, he's starting to get better with the endgame management. You know, there's still some questionable. decisions here and there that he's made with the bullpen and everything. But overall, it's gotten a lot better. He's starting to get more used to it. Again, remember, this is his first time managing a baseball team ever. He's been a front office guy. He's been a scout and everything.

So, yeah, it's, I've been very impressed by what he's been able to do over, especially over the last year. And you kind of look back at. at some other years and you start to really see that he is able to properly build culture and bring guys together and not and even if there are riffs even if there are divides he's able to make up for those things he's able to bridge some gaps with guys so um you know i think that's everything that you want in a man and a manager in today's game so uh yeah you know i i don't really know you know, much about the other four, particularly Cotsay, of course, but like even the other three

in terms of game management, because I'm not watching their games most of the time. And when I'm watching them play the Mariners, you know, I'm not looking out for how they're using their bullpen or how, you know, anything like that. You know, I'm not educated enough on their teams because I don't watch them consistently to know what's a good decision, what's a bad decision for them. Obviously, there's certain things that stand out and whatnot, but, you know, I can't really properly quantify that for the other three guys that we're really talking about here against Scott. So for me, and this is a completely biased take, I'll admit that. But for me, Scott Service is also my number one.

Yeah, I think, you know, and I think a lot of this also has to do like, what did you do with what you had? And honestly, I don't think the talent gap between Texas and Seattle that year was humongous. You know, Seattle won 90 games and Texas finish in last place. And you look at kind of like what Dusty Baker has. Well, Dusty Baker kind of has to get to a World Series with that roster. And you look at what Madden has. And Madden hasn't even had a winning record in Anaheim yet. So, yeah, I mean, who's getting the most out of their roster?

Even if you just want to look at it that way, it's clearly Scott's service. So to me, it's really only a debate about who's number two. and I think Baker is just I've been so unimpressed with Madden the last three or four years that I just I think it has to be

I think it has to be Baker even though there's the talent in place he made a World Series you know and yeah I would say this just so you know people have a baseline here if Bob Melvin hadn't left if let me rephrase that if the Mariners

hadn't bullied Bob Melvin in the open days into rebuilding Bob Melvin would be number one on my list by like a mile. Melvin might be the best manager of baseball, period. Agreed. But he's not there. So Scott goes from number two to number one.

Everybody else moves up and we'll see where Katze is. And honestly, I wouldn't be shocked if Katsi ended up, you know, three this year. Like I think there's a shot of Katsi is pretty good at this, but we have to see. But yeah, for me, Scott number one, Gap, then Dusty Baker, small Gap, Joe Madden, and then large gap between Madden and Woodward. And then Cotsday, I just can't even fairly rank. So speaking of gaps, the one between Major League Baseball and the PA is seemingly starting to close a little bit. There's still far apart on some issues, but we're going to give you an update on how all that is going.

But real quick, a reminder of this episode of Lockdown Mariners is brought to you by Mission Possible. Are you ready to discover your purpose and leave an impact wherever you guys. Mission Possible, written and read by New York Times bestselling author and athlete Tim Tebow, encourages you to find your inspiration, pursue your purpose, and create a life for yourself that counts. Ignite a new spark in your life through this new inspirational lesson. Mission Possible by Tim Tebow is available everywhere. Audio books are sold. You're listening to Lockdown Mariners. Thank you again for making us your first listen of the day, just like you do here every day.

And just a reminder to check out Lockdown MLB Prospects host Lindsay Cros. is a prospect encyclopedia and he's going deep on the MLB stars of tomorrow. It's free and available wherever you get podcasts just like us. So MLB and the MLBPA met for 17 hours in New York last night. And just like last week, the day after, has been followed up by a bit of a cooling down period, if we will. It seemed like there was some momentum towards a deal coming together. But now it seems like we're probably not going to get an agreement, at least today. But MLBPA has submitted a counteroffer to major league baseball,

which they are currently reviewing at the time of this recording. And right now the big issue is the implementation of the international draft, which for now appears to be planned to be integrated in 2024. So not immediately. It would take a couple years. We've talked a little bit about this and how it would affect the Mariners.

Obviously, the Mariners have an agreement in place with an upcoming international prospect who is very highly touted, Felne in Celestine. And we talked about how because of those agreements that teams currently have with some of the young players that are coming up in the next couple

of international signings, periods, the league would likely push the draft down the road a little bit. So it seems like that's what's happening here. But the players are very hesitant to accept an international player draft because the league has pretty much brought this up at the last minute and they're tying it to the elimination of qualifying offers. So Colby, you give us a little bit more of a breakdown on what's going on here, why the international draft is a bit of a problem for the players and why it's just a problem in general that the league has suddenly brought it up at the 11th hour, more or less. Yeah, it's a pretty underhanded thing, especially since one of the first reports we got way back

when they started meeting, like seriously, was that the qualifying offer was already dead. and now it's attached to something. And the issue with that is that the international draft, which would affect the Latin countries, it's not great for baseball in those countries. There are some benefits to it. You know, more guaranteed money, at least that's what Major League Baseball is throwing out there.

It's what it's espousing. But again, what players lose is the right to choose And for some players, they lose money, just straight up. I mean, the highest picking the international draft would make $5.5 million, I think. There are some international prospects who signed for six or seven. I mean, it's rare, but it happens. And what you're doing is you're taking away the choice from these players. They don't get to choose where their careers,

they don't get to make these decisions based on who's offering them the most money. They're just kind of forced to go there. And, you know, the difference is between that and the Major League Baseball draft is that prospects in the Major League Baseball draft, they can kind of dictate where they go or where they want to go. They can make demands on bonus pools that other teams aren't going to match. They can kind of maneuver their way up or down the board based on the deals they're willing to take. And the international kids, they don't have that opportunity. you know the college or the the the um amateur draft they they have options to go back to school or go to school or you know sit out a year like kuma rocker like they have options um available to them and

the international kids don't um there's a lot of dirty business that happens in the international uh game um from you know handlers and agents and and you know people taking advantage of of these kids and just trying to use them to get their money. And I don't know if a draft fixes any of that. So there are some big issues here. And more importantly, the Latin players in the MLBPA, they consider it a non-starter. And that is a rather large portion of your union.

And they just, they don't want it. They want the freedom to choose. And they want, they want players to be able to pick the situation that fits them and their family the best. And that is more important to them than maybe a couple of them

getting a couple hundred thousand dollars more than they otherwise would have. So yeah, it's just the one thing that the international players can control is what team they're interested in and what teams they want to work, what teams they want to work with and for. That's really their leverage.

And if you have the draft, that goes away. So there's really nothing to stop the owners from saying, okay well we drafted you number one and you want three million dollars well no well then i guess you have to wait a year and then you'll be 17 and then your value will go down again it's just it's not it's not a it's not a fair system to the players um i i just i think this is something that should easily be pushed back to the next round of cb a negotiations as it stands right now they wouldn't even implement this until halfway through this cbA

And that's just, it's just not going to apply. So there are some issues there. But they are getting closer in, in other areas, including the competitive balance tax, which is a very good sign. So let's talk about that. So this comes from Bob Nightingale, which, but he's already gotten these numbers wrong once, by the way. Yeah. I think we can at least trust these numbers, though. He's come from Evan Drelich.

So, yeah, this is also from Evan Drenelich. but right now here here's how far apart the league and the PA are right now so in terms of the pre-arbitration pool that's for the zero to three guys who would be getting a slice of a certain pool we'll see how much money that ends up being at the end of the day but based on their value to their teams the PA right now is at 65 million dollars remember they started at a $100 million. They were at 85 in their last offer last week and now they're at 65. Major League Baseball has come up to $40 million. So that gap is closing. Now for the collective, or sorry, for the competitive balance tax, Major League Baseball in year one is at $230 million.

In year 2, $232 million. In year 3, $236 million, and year 4, $240 million and in year 5, $242 million. while the PA is at 232 million in year 1, 235 million in year 2, 245 million in year 3 and 250 million in year 4. So it's starting, you're starting to see a path there to a deal on that front. Really the biggest hang up, it seems, right now is the international draft and the implementation of that.

That's really starting to hang things up here. But I feel like if the international draft wasn't an issue here, we'd probably be able to get a deal done today, considering where they are in terms of the pre-R pool and the CBT. Don't you agree? Yeah. And I mean, it's important to note that the players still have their biggest bargaining chip, which is the 17th playoff.

They're still at six. So would they trade it for a couple million bucks? Probably not. I think to me the solution is, you know, hey, let's table the international draft. let's you know put it that we will reopen negotiations on it in 2023 or 24 let's meet in the middle here at let's say 50 million roughly for the for the bonus pool and the players are this close they should really on the CBT the players should trade the CBT numbers that the owners want for more in the in the pre-ar bonus pool and this is of course. assuming that things like 16 playoffs, the minimum is still what it is and all of that stuff. Everything that's been agreed to previously remains. That's what we're assuming.

But, you know, devil's in the details. But I feel like if Major League Baseball comes up in the player pool closer to 50 million, I think Major League the PA will be much more likely to come down on the CBT. And I think you get a deal done. do. I think what we're probably looking at is one more offer from the league, one more offer from the PA and then a final offer from the league. I think if a deal is going to get done, it's going to be the PA accepting a deal from

the league, right? That's how the owners want. The owners want to make it look like they're the ones who broker the deal. And let them believe that. We all know the truth. And after they signed the deal, the players can say whatever they want. And they will. And they should.

But again, the MLBPA continues to move down further and further and closer and closer to what the owners have deemed acceptable. Now, I think honestly, if the owners drop the international draft and have some kind of agreement to reopen discussions next year, only on the international draft after it's been studied and, you know, the players can fully digest it. And after Major League Baseball can fully articulate a plan for implementation, I think if they, agree to table that and they say look we'll give you $50 million on the pre-R pool but we want our CBT numbers that we just gave you in our last proposal I really think they get a deal done

and like I said that could be something that the players or that the owners could do in 10 minutes all right so moving off the lockout Mariners underachieved in 2021 or did they we're going to be talking about that in just a moment but real quick reminder of this episode of

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box so they know we sent you. Amazing selection, reliably low prices, all the parts, your car will ever need rockado dot com so colby you've been wanted to talk about this for the last few days we were actually going to talk about it on monday but we had questions to answer of course so that ate up most of our show but you've had an epiphany about the 2021 mariners please share with the class it's an epiphany that's centered around the 2021 mariners but is more of a how we cover baseball in general type of epiphany the 2021 mariners just happened to be the perfect example of this. The idea that a baseball team overachieves or outperforms means that they were pretty lucky. And we look at things like run differential and record in one run games to prove that.

And, you know, I come to the realization that that simply isn't true. It's not that the player, or it's not that the teams, you know, were lucky and they blew past their ceiling. It's that you and I and the people listening to this and anybody who offers predictions on wins and losses, we were just wrong. And we should admit it. We were wrong about the Mariners ceiling. The Mariners ceiling in 2021 was 90 wins. Now, is it fair to say that you don't often hit your ceiling?

Yeah, of course it is. But when you look at what you said and what I said and what Fangraph said and what whoever said, I think most people said, oh, if the Mariners get really lucky, they could probably win 81 games. Maybe 82, 83, somewhere in that range, right? That was the ceiling. Most of us were at 75, 78 wins. They went 90. And the reaction is like, oh, well, they got pretty lucky.

They overachieved. That was fun. But, you know, they got kind of lucky there. No, they did not. The Mariners weren't lucky. We were wrong. It's really that simple. And you can point to the record in one run games and say, well, that's luck.

I could point to the record in one run games and say that's a really well-managed bullpen. That was full of studs. And it was. Because the Mariners' record in one-run games isn't what it is because of luck. It's because Paul Seawald was amazing for five months. It's because Drew Steckin-Rider was amazing for six months. It's because guys stepped up. Casey Sather was awesome.

Johann Ramirez took a step forward. The marriage record in one-run games. games was not because of luck is because of a good bullpen that was managed very well. Did Scott Service and the Mariners max out their potential in 2021? Sure, you could say that. But were they lucky to do it? No. And that therein lies to think.

When a team kind of comes out of nowhere and exceeds expectations, that's exactly what they did. They exceeded your expectations, but it doesn't mean that they were lucky. It means that you were wrong. I was wrong. We were wrong about that team. There's nothing wrong with that. But trying to take away, for example, for the example we're using,

the Mariners 91 season by saying it was lucky, it's a cop out. It's lazy. It's cheap. They weren't lucky. You were wrong. I was wrong. You were wrong.

We're all wrong. Yeah. Okay. And by the way, think about if things swung in their direction even more, right? I talked about this when we were talking about Scott Service.

What if Kyle Lewis was healthy? What if Jared Kellnick came up and he was good right away? Imagine if we saw September Jared Kellnick for the whole year. So is it even possible that they didn't even reach their ceiling? Yeah, I think you can legitimately argue that.

And so just the fact that, you know, people, oh, the marriage are so lucky they're so lucky. Well, it's not like everything worked out perfectly for them either. So it just leads even more evidence to my, my theory here that teams don't overachieve. You know, they don't outperform what they should. Teams are exactly as good as they should be or as bad as they should be. They didn't out, they didn't overachieve. We underestimated. That's the difference. Yeah. We just didn't have all these. the information, right?

Like Paul Seawald was still going to be the same picture that he was in 2021. Steck and Ryder. Tom France. Mitch Hanager, et cetera. JP, J.P. Croffer.

Yep. Yeah. I mean, yeah, it's, it's, you know, it's Chris Flexen. Who saw that coming? Right.

So it's just one of those things where it's like, look. You say Kikuchi being really good for, for the first half of the year. Yeah. You know, and Logan Gilbert being, you know,

one of the best pitchers in the American League in September. and Jared Keldnick being very good in September, kind of carrying the offense a little bit. Like, there are just things that we cannot predict. Abraham Toro coming, you know, coming over in the trade and very good for,

not September, but his first month, he was one of the best hitters on the team. And, and I mean, not for nothing, but he did hit the grand slam off of a certain pitcher, um,

who shall remain nameless, Kendall Graveman. So, yeah, it's just one of those things where it's like, you're not, wrong for being wrong. You know what I mean?

Like nobody's blaming you for being wrong. But to try and say you were right because a team overachieved, they were lucky, that is what makes you wrong. They didn't overachieve. You didn't give them,

you didn't give them the proper expectations. Sure. And that's fine because it's all guesswork, but stop saying the Mariners were lucky in 2021. They weren't a good, they weren't a good, they weren't a good team. They were a lucky team.

That's a lie. That's a straight up lie. They weren't lucky. You were wrong, period. And have fun with it. Teams that come out of nowhere are the best. They're so much fun. Embrace it.

Lean into it. And that's not to say the marriage don't have work to do this off season. They still do. Hopefully we'll get to talk about that sometime in the next few days. But for now, the Mariners were good team in 2021. I don't care what their record in one-run games is.

I don't care how lucky you think they are. Teams don't luck their way to 90 wins. It does not happen. You were wrong, and it's okay. All right. On that note, that's going to do it for our show today. Thank you so much for joining us here on Lockdown Mariners. For Colby Pat Note, I'm Taday Gonzalez.

Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L0 underscore Mariners. You can follow me at Dan Gonzalez. It's D-A-N-Z-L-Z and Colby at C-V-E. and Colby at C-P-E-P-E-P-E-1. You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode and thank you again for making us your first listen of the day just like you do here every day. We greatly appreciate the support.

Now make your second listen of the day. Locked-on MLB where Paul Francis Sullivan and please call him Sully brings you his unique perspective on the major league's present and past. It's free wherever you get your podcast just like us. So have yourself a beautiful baseball day and we will see you on Friday. Peace.