Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Jarred Kelenic's September Tear Continues
Episode Date: September 20, 2021Locked On Mariners hosts Ty Dane Gonzalez and Colby Patnode hop back on the mics to talk Jarred Kelenic's breakout weekend, the Mariners' upcoming series with the A's and why prospect blocking doesn't... exist.CLICK TO ENTER FOR A CHANCE TO WIN TWO FREE TICKETS TO SEATTLE KRAKEN TRAINING CAMPBe sure to follow or subscribe to Locked On Mariners wherever you prefer your podcasts! For questions and other inquiries, email: lockedonmariners@gmail.comFollow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @danegnzlz | @CPat11For more of Ty and Colby, check out their Patreon: patreon.com/controlthezone/Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
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It is Monday, September 20th, 2021.
This is the Lockdown Mariners podcast, your home for Daily Seattle Mariners News and analysis.
I am your host, Taday Gonzalez.
Join as always by my co-host, Colby Patnode.
You can find me at Dan Gonzalez on Twitter.
That's D-A-N-ZL-Z and Colby at CPAT 11 at CPAT-1.
and if you're a fan of the Seahawks, obviously
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Colby also contributes.
So check us out.
And also check out our Patreon
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New episode is dropping
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Also,
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The session is a morning session on September 30th.
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So on today's episode of Lockdown Mariners,
we'll be recapping Jared Kelnick's awesome week
and what the Mariners did down in Kansas City.
We'll be talking more about roster building
and the debate about blocking prospects,
and we'll also get you set for the Mariners.
upcoming series with the A's down in Oakland.
Should be a fun one.
If you like what you hear, give the show a follow or subscribe to it.
Wherever you're listening to this, that would be dope.
And speaking of things that are dope,
Jared Kelnick had a magnificent week of baseball.
He was first in the American League and slugging percentage,
first in home runs with four.
He was tied first in F-4 with 0.6.
He was second in W.R.
C plus with 254.
He averaged an exit velocity
of 95.6, which was
fourth in the American League.
All those numbers courtesy of Joe Doyle,
lookout landing, and
prospects live.
Keldick was just
incredible, especially in
the series. He had a great day on
Sunday. A couple doubles, had a home run.
What have you seen from Kellenick, Colby?
It just looks more comfortable up there.
He's kind of found
an approach that works, a setup that works, and he's not really tinkering with it all that much.
And yeah, it just looks more comfortable. He's identifying pitches better.
He's understanding how pitchers are trying to attack him right now. And he's,
he's honestly, he's kind of getting a feel for what type of pitches he's going to get at the
big league level from the umpires even. He's been a little more, a little more aggressive on
pitches that are fringy, realizing that he's not always going to get that call. So he's, he's been
really aggressive. He's been attacking it.
And he just overall, he looks a lot more comfortable.
You read out the numbers there.
And, you know, this has kind of been an ongoing thing with him.
Obviously, September has greatly helped his overall numbers.
But, you know, if you look at his last 50 games, he's hitting 27, 302, 459.
Not exactly, you know, world beating numbers, but pretty good for a 21-year-old who has a handful of games above, you know,
A ball basically.
He's about 60 games above A ball right now.
So yeah, it's pretty solid performance for him over his last 50.
But obviously, he's really kicked it up here in September.
And it should give Mariner fans a lot of hope that this is something that can carry over to,
well, to next year.
And we'll see if he makes the opening day squad next year.
That'll probably be something we talk about a little bit here.
you know, this offseason.
But yeah, he's been spectacular in September.
And it should give Mariner fans a lot of, a lot of encouraging,
a lot of encouragement because, I mean,
I don't think we thought that Kelnick would be as good all year as he has been in September.
But this is kind of the ceiling.
This is, well, this is kind of the upside with Kalnick.
You're seeing it right now.
So it's a really encouraging thing for both Kelnick and the Seattle Mariners
and the family.
base.
So the Mariners walk out of Kaufman's stadium with a pair of wins.
The series went a lot better than when the Royals came to Seattle.
Logan Gilbert,
speaking of the young guys doing well right now here in the month of September,
he's kind of turned things around and he had a great start against the Royals
yesterday afternoon.
Just three hits in seven innings pitch,
just one run allowed, five strikeouts, one walk.
What were your takeaways from Gilbert's start?
Yeah, it was interesting.
I wouldn't say it was, like the final line looks great.
I wouldn't say it was great.
I think he's looked better.
But overall, the attacking approach of Logan Gilbert,
and he had the good fastball yesterday,
and he was able to keep it at the top of the zone,
which is very important for him.
pretty much exclusively fastball slider.
He threw 10 curveballs and just five changeups out of the 99 pitches.
You guys can do the math on that.
So, yeah, it's, it was, it was good.
It wasn't spectacular.
I wouldn't say that, but it was really good Logan Gilbert.
He was aggressive.
He went right after these guys.
He wasn't afraid of Salvador Perez or Whitmerfield or anybody like that.
The slider was downright nasty at times.
He got seven whiffs on 13 swings on that slider.
you know, that's obviously very, very good.
So it was nice to see him have that pitch.
He kind of struggled a little bit in the first.
You bounce a curveball.
I think it went about halfway to home play.
So, yeah, I mean, there's still some things to iron out here.
But again, he's aggressive.
He's back in attack mode right now.
And if you look at his last, you know, three or four starts,
he's been very, very solid.
He doesn't look like a guy who's running out of bullets.
It seems like his arms in good shape.
And so the idea.
that well, maybe they should take him out of the rotation and rest them, that seems to be going
out the window, which is great because he's got probably two more starts, I think, and it'd be nice
to see him continue to, you know, write out this season on a high note. And, you know, yet another
player who's giving Mariners fans plenty to be excited about next year. And I think has done enough
to earn a spot in the opening day rotation next year, you know, unless Seattle goes out and
adds like three starting pitchers in free agency.
He's going to be in the rotation next year.
So before we hop over to our next segment,
anyone else in this series that you want to give a shout out to
or anyone that jumped out?
Oh, Ty.
Did you think we weren't going to talk about Jake Bowers?
Did you really think we weren't going to talk about Jake Bowers?
Oh, I was, I was setting you up for, you know, as the president.
of the Jake Bowers fan club,
you know,
the Bowers Rangers,
uh,
to,
you know,
talk about your boy here who set a baseball into the shadow realm at
Coffin Stadium.
I don't think I've ever seen anyone hit a ball that far there.
460 into the water.
I don't,
I don't think Nelson Cruz ever got to 460.
Like I remember,
I remember he might have done it in,
in Cincinnati.
I remember he went like really deep and then,
Gutierrez, like, outdid him somehow.
But, I mean,
460 feet.
That's, that's, that's, that's, that's, that's, that's, that's, that's, that's, that's,
football fields.
What, like, I, I, I, I, I don't even know, like, like, like, I saw it off the bat and I was like,
oh, oh, that's got a chance.
And then it just kept on going and going and going.
And I continue to say, Jake Bauer should be getting pretty much every,
every he should be in the lineup every game and if that's at the expense of jake frailey fine jake fraley's
not good so i'm totally fine with that um and you know bowers aside from the home run uh obviously
that was the big moment yesterday he had three hard hit balls and unfortunately he was only awarded
he was only rewarded with the one home run but again he continues to hit the ball hard you can see
the adjustments he's making in his swing um he's generating more loft he's getting more backspin and uh it's
it's paying off for him he's been pretty good
granted very small sample size Seattle has really been protecting him as a work on this swing
and that's a really tough thing to do because he doesn't have an option left so you can't send him down
without risking him so it's tough to make a new swing work at the big league level but that's
exactly what Jake Bowers is doing right now he has been very good over the last oh about two months now
he's been quite solid and and it's good because as you mentioned,
I'm the president of the Jake Bowers fan club.
So I am very appreciative of this new swing of Jake Bowers.
And it does give me hope that he might be a guy who can stick around,
you know,
as the 26 guy on the roster next year and give you some real upside.
Yeah, it should be interesting to see how he finishes the rest of the way out.
And speaking of the rest of the way out,
the Mariners are going to play the A7 more times here.
And they are going to play four of those in the next four days,
going to Oakland for their final trip to the Oakland Coliseum.
We're going to get you set for that one in just a moment.
But first, quick word about direct TV.
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So the Mariners began a
four games set down in Oakland, starting to
night pitching matchups and this one.
Let me bring them up real quick.
Tyler Anderson versus Sean Mania,
Marco Gonzalez versus Paul Blackburn,
Chris Flexen versus Cole Irvin.
You say Kakushi versus
well, we don't know yet.
It's to be determined.
So we'll see on that.
But I think the one matchup here that obviously stands out is Fluxon versus Cole Irvin
because, of course, you know, Cole Irvin ran his mouth after the first time that the A's and the Mariners squared off.
And Irvin faced the Mariners.
And he gave up four runs and four innings, I believe, and said that he shouldn't be doing that against an offense like that.
And then, you know, over his last couple starts against the Mariners, he's been equally as bad, if not worse versus the Mariners this year.
Irvin's given up 11 runs while walking four and striking out just five and 11.2 endings of work.
So is that the one that you're keeping an eye on or is there a matchup here that stands out to you a bit more?
Tonight's matchup is pretty interesting.
Manaya versus Anderson.
A couple lefties kind of do it differently.
than one another.
And Mania has obviously been great.
We've even recently talked about him as a possible trade candidate this offseason for Seattle.
So that's a pretty fun one.
But yeah,
it's the Cole Irvin,
you know,
part four,
I guess,
I think it is.
So,
yeah,
it would be very nice to go out there and just kind of,
you know,
ruin Cole Irvin's day again.
And it's so funny because Cole Irvin,
you look at his numbers against like every other team,
really solid,
like just a really good find.
for Oakland and he's been very helpful to them.
But against the Mariners, he has been straight up bad.
So I really hope that they can do that again to him, if for no other reason than to continue
to enjoy that meme and carry something into next season where I'm sure Cole Irvin will
have something to say about his disastrous season against the Mariners.
Of course, of course.
All right.
So, you know, last week ahead of the Royal Series,
we did some picks to click.
You and I both took Jared Kelnick.
He had a great series.
And the last time the Mariners were in Oakland,
we had some picks to click,
and those proved to be pretty good as well.
So want to push our luck here a little bit
and maybe, you know,
throw a couple picks to click out here for this series.
Well, one player I can guarantee you
will not hurt the Mariners in this four-game series
is Logan Gilbert.
So I'm probably going to go with,
him, but I don't know if I feel like pushing my luck.
We nailed the, uh, the Kelnik call.
Um, attempted to ride with Kelnik since he's been so hot, but Manaya is a pretty tough
matchup for him.
Um, you know, Irvin, not so much, uh, but, uh, and then Blackburn should be fine there.
So yeah, I'm kind of tempted to go with, uh, to go with Kelnick again, but a bunch of
righties in the lineup, um, sorry, a bunch of lefties in the, in the,
the rotation so there should be all the right he's in the lineup assuming they stick with that i'm
tempted to actually go with abraham toro he's been scuffling a little bit here but he continues
to put the ball in play i i did you have somebody in mind because i i'm like i'm a little on the fence
about this i don't want to ruin our streak but i which as it right now is one by the way i think
louise trends is going to have a good series that's a good um
A couple lefties, especially Irvin.
Funny enough, they haven't hit a home runoff of Irvin this year.
Really?
For as much damage as they've done against him.
That makes it even worse for him.
You can't even say like, oh, I made two bad pitches and that's it.
Nope, you made a lot of them.
Yeah.
Yeah.
So I think Terence is going to get the first one.
And I think he'll have a good series overall.
A couple lefties.
we'll see who they're throwing on in game four.
But yeah,
I like,
I like Liberty's trends in this series.
I'm going to play it safe here.
I have my guy.
I'm going to play it pretty safe, though.
I'm going to go to Thai France.
Okay.
Cool.
Ty France has a shot here,
a good shot.
He's up to 294,
so 300 still in play.
And with a really,
really hot month,
314 is still in play,
which would officially make him Pi France.
So I think that's something we can all root for in the next two weeks.
He's also up.
He also just eclips the four win mark on baseball reference war.
So, yeah, I think Thai France is going to have a nice little series here.
And it's over the last, you know, a week or so, he's, he's, it's funny when you say like
Thai France went into a slump is when he goes like three for 14 in a series.
But since, since like that slump,
over the last week he's sitting
357, 455,
429. So I think we're going to
see a couple home runs, a double,
and I think Ty France is going to play a big role
in a series win
for the Seattle Mariners.
Nice, nice.
The A's are coming into this one
winners of five straight.
They're only a couple of games out of the wild card
right now. The Mariners, of course,
four back.
So not really factoring in there, not really
focused on that. But
probably,
want to play spoiler a little bit here and make sure that the A's don't don't make it in.
And I talked about on Friday how, you know, I would love to see this team, you know, finish second in the AOS. And winning the series would certainly help their, their chances to accomplish that.
So how do you feel overall? I mean, obviously, you know, you're picking them to win. But what do you feel about the series as a whole?
Yeah, the pitching matchups aren't bad.
Obviously, the one tonight is the toughest.
Blackburn really handled you last time, but he's just, he's not that good.
But then again, neither is the Mariners' offense.
But, no, I think the pitching matchups are pretty favorable.
We'll see what version of Yucay Kikuchi we get.
That's a real crap shoot.
So we'll have to see which one we get.
But overall,
I like their chances.
They're eight and four against Oakland.
You know,
they get to face their own personal punching bag and Co-Urvin.
So I think,
you know,
they're feeling a little bit better about themselves
after that series win.
They swung the bats well yesterday off of a pretty talented,
albeit struggling pitcher in Jackson Coar.
I think they're going to roll in there.
And I think they're probably going to win four of the seven games here against Oakland.
So,
yeah,
I think I like the matchups.
way they go this series. So I think they'll have some success. And one thing I can feel very confident
about is that all these games are going to be pretty darn close. So, uh, yeah, eight and four,
find a way to win three. Get yourself a series a win. Actually, you only need two. Uh, you know,
get yourself a season series win and, uh, you know, get ready to play Anaheim six times in the last
10 days and, uh, have fun with that. Should be, uh, that should be pretty fun. All right. So we're going to
talk more about, you know, roster building. We've been looking at the off season a lot
over the last few episodes. We're going to talk about a, this debate that's kind of been going
around about blocking prospects. But real quick, before we get into that, let's talk about
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So, Colby, when you and I have our discussions about, you know,
building this roster for 2022 and talking about how, you know,
guys like Jared Kellnick and Julio Rodriguez and Logan Gilbert fit into the whole situation,
you know, we, we get asked, you know, well,
why would you want to add this free agent since he blocks this guy?
or why would you want to trade for this guy
if you're just going to be trading this prospect
for him who plays the same position
as him or what have you, right?
But you
wanted to talk about this today.
You have a
take that you would like to share
about prospect blocking
in general and why
you feel that really doesn't matter
in the end.
It doesn't really exist.
Yeah, that's the main point there is that
it does not exist, not for a team that is where the Mariners are, which is a team that is looking to go
from, depending on how you want to look at it, good to great, or probably more realistically,
you know, mediocre to playoff contender. And, you know, the fact that the Mariners have been so
successful this year forces the hand that pretty much everybody, they have to go for it.
I mean, there's no, well, one more year. That went out the window when you won 80,
plus games.
So without most of your young guys contributing for you.
So the idea of blocking prospects does not exist.
And I'll tell you why.
Because A, the primary objective of every major league organization should be to win games
at the major league level.
How do you win games at the major league level by collecting as much major league
talent as you can and playing them and deploying them effectively.
So why are you worried about blocking a prospect who you don't know if they're going to be good?
You don't know if they're going to struggle like Kelnick.
You don't know if they're going to come up and be Juan Soto right away.
And if you want to play what's most likely to happen, it's most likely that they're going to be
Jared Kelnick or they're going to be Logan Gilbert and struggle for six weeks straight before they
find something that works.
That is the way of the prospects.
They're young, inexperienced players.
and nobody is advocating getting rid of all of them.
Nobody is saying you trade them all away.
And nobody is sitting here saying that,
well,
you should go and sign,
you know,
15 free agents to five-year deals and put them ahead of these guys.
It's not what anybody is saying.
Blocking prospects is not a thing for good teams.
The Dodgers do not block prospects.
They figure it out,
right?
They trade those guys for players they need
or they find a role for them that fits.
if the best player is going to play, period.
So the Mariners go out and they sign Tommy Fam and Brad Miller and
Michael can for whoever it is, right?
And Julio Rodriguez is the better player between that group.
Julio Rodriguez is going to play, period.
There is nothing wrong with having lots of options at one.
spot because what you then have is you have a surplus. You have actual true depth, not just
guys that you think are going to be good. You have depth, guys who you know with reasonable
certainty are going to be good and going to help you. And in the best case scenario, you have so
many of those guys, you have a surplus that you can go out and trade and get guys that help your
major league team. So this idea that you can block a prospect, it's not true. There is nobody
the Mariners are going to sign this offseason or trade for that is going to
permanently block Julio Rodriguez in the minor leagues.
It's not going to happen.
It's particularly bad in the starting pitching area where people are like,
well,
you can't sign that guy because then how do you get George Kirby into the rotation?
Well, you make George Kirby earn his way into the rotation,
and let's not pretend that injuries aren't a thing.
Let's not pretend that poor performance out of nowhere isn't a thing.
So blocking prospects does not exist for the Seattle mayor's in 2022.
That cannot factor in to any of the decision.
make the same goes honestly for jared kelmick that the mariners should not say well we can't go sign
player x or we can't trade for player x because we don't know if jared kelnick can beat them or not
you are building a team for jared kelnick not a team to win that's a mistake you cannot say oh well
we don't want to go get mark kana because then how are we going to play jared kelmick if jared kelmick
can't beat out mark kana that's jared kelmick's fault okay and so there is no such thing as blocking
prospects. It's about building depth. And when the prospects tell you they are ready and they show
you they are ready, then you decide what to do with them. And usually it comes down to a trade or
it comes down to a shift in position or a way, a different role to get them up and put them in
the best position to succeed. Because I tell you right now, if the Mariners go into next year
and they build a rotation so that they can eventually accommodate George Kirby and Brandon
Williamson and Emerson Hancock or whatever in the middle of the year, they're going to be a bad
baseball team. That's a fact. You cannot build a team to accommodate young prospects that you want to
call up and tell me that you're a contender. Cannot do it. You have to have guys that these prospects
have to beat out, major league proven talent that they have to beat out to get their role. You can't
just not spend money in right field because you're afraid, oh, well, what if Julio, what if we want
to call Julio up, but we're paying player X $12 million. Then you call up Julio and you pay that
guy $12 million and the best player plays.
There is no such thing as blocking prospects, particularly when it comes to pitchers.
Does not exist.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Especially with pitchers, because arms take so long to develop, especially at the major league level.
You just, you can't rely on any of those guys.
You can't rely on any young player to come up and immediately contribute to you, especially if you are a contending team.
we've talked about this constantly now with kelnik specifically and looking towards next year
that now that kelnick shed his prospect status now that you've seen him struggle now that you
even though that he has you know really performed i mean we we talked about it a lot here on this
episode but even though that he has performed uh quite well this uh this month can't still really
trust him you can't rely on him he's
a guy on the 40 man roster and he has and as such he has to earn his way onto the 26 man roster
and hopefully into the starting lineup because that's a good thing right breeding that competition
not handing him anything is a good thing and having that depth like you said colby
having that surplus is also a good problem to have you know and and and you made a great point
they're talking about the Dodgers and the way the Dodgers do things.
The Dodgers move guys around.
They look for versatility.
They have so many versatile players that can play in different spots.
And when they have their prospects, they look at them as a ball of clay and they mold them to how they see fit within their major league roster.
And that's how the Mariners, I would hope, are going to do things as well with their young prospect.
that they're going to be molded in a way that complements the rest of their roster,
not in a way that is solely dependent on their performance.
Because if you are dependent on Julio Rodriguez, Jared Kelnick, Logan, Gilbert, etc.,
to take you to the promised land, you failed as an organization.
You have to have established major league talent.
So I wholeheartedly agree with what you're saying there.
I know we're running short on time here,
But before we cap this thing off, is there anything you would like to add about roster building,
about the prospect blocking or anything like that?
Build a team for build a team with practicality, not hope, right?
And you're going to take some chances on some guys.
Of course you are.
There's a good chance, Kelnick, is your opening day left fielder.
Because at some point, you don't have unlimited resources.
you don't have unlimited money.
So at some point, you're going to have to take a shot on a young guy.
That's fine.
What you can't do is have three or four spots open
because you're hoping to take a shot on a prospect.
That's poor roster construction.
And what you're asking for is a team, quite frankly,
that's a lot like the one we see today,
which is winning a lot of games relative to what expectations were,
but it's largely due to a bullpen that is just, you know,
taking all the slack of the shortcomings around you.
It's not because the young players are performing super well for large portions of the season.
It's because you have this one incredible unit that's really just dragging along this mediocre roster behind it.
And so you can't build a lineup or a rotation with super easy like fail safe.
Like, oh, well, in June when Julio is ready, that's why this guy only, you know,
That's why this guy is only a one and a half one player.
So it doesn't hurt when we take him out to put in Julio.
That's stupid.
Build a good roster and allow the young prospects to be bonuses that get added in the middle of the year when they've earned it.
Not building blocks.
You can't do that and be a successful perennial playoff contender.
You have to have some certainty in your lineup and in your rotation.
And you have to force these guys to earn their way to the big leagues.
and earn playing time over established veterans.
That's how you win.
And that's why we talked about the importance of depth on your bench.
You know,
that's why we talked about building a sustainable bench that's deep
and has established major league talent on it.
You know,
it's a dangerous game that you play,
relying on young talent because it's very exciting
and it's very easy to get to be consumed by,
really,
especially as fans.
When you look at all the rankings and you look at how,
highly rated, you know,
Julio Rodriguez is and Noel
Alvi Marta is and Jared Kellnick
is, it's really easy to get
caught up in that and see,
you know, and start to believe
that, well,
that person is going to come up and they're
just, they're going to be Juan Soto.
They're going to be Ronald Acuna Jr.
They're going to be Fernando Tatis Jr.
right away. And while that's
possible, right, there's, there's a
non-zero chance that's possible with
any prospect, really, that comes up, you
know of high regard but it's not likely and you can't bank on it and you can't build your
roster around that idea around that dream so like you said you have to have certainty
in your organization at your main at the major league level and if not you know if injuries
happen if guys underperform you're going to be where you're at
every other year for the last, you know, how many years.
So you're better off just covering all your bases, really.
So that's going to do it for today's show.
Thank you so much for joining us here on Lockdown Mariners for Colby Pat node.
I'm Taday Gonzalez.
Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L0 underscore Mariners.
You can follow me at Dane Gonzalez.
That's D-A-N-Z-L-Z and Colby at C-H-H-E at 11.
C-P-A-T-1-1.
Shout out to Erica I-A-A-Lah of Locked-on Crack-in for promoting our little giveaway.
And again, check out my Twitter if you want to win two tickets to Cracken Training Camp
for the September 30th morning session.
The link to what you need for that is going to be in the description of this episode.
And all of our other information will be in there as well.
And be sure to check out an episode of Lockdown Cracken if you're excited about the NHL's 32nd franchise.
And have yourself a beautiful baseball day and we'll see you tomorrow.
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