Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Jason Churchill Talks Mariners Offseason

Episode Date: December 1, 2021

'Baseball Things' host and ProspectInsider.com creator Jason Churchill joins the show to discuss Robbie Ray and how the Mariners may attack the rest of the offseason.Be sure to follow or subscribe to Locked On Mariners wherever you prefer your podcasts! For questions and other inquiries, email: [e-mail] TO BASEBALL THINGSFollow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @danegnzlz | @CPat11 | @ProspectInsiderFor more of Ty and Colby, check out their Patreon: patreon.com/controlthezone/Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.BetOnline AGThere is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You are Locked-on Mariners, your daily Seattle Mariners podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome to Locked-on Mariners, your home for Daily Seattle Mariner's News and Analysis. Thank you so much for making us your first listen of the day. We are free and available on all platforms, and we greatly appreciate your support. Today is Tuesday, December 1st, 2021. I am your host, Tiding Gonzalez. No Colby today.

But follow us on Twitter anyway at L-O-U-U-U-N-S-Riners. You can follow me at D-A-N-Z-L-Z. That's D-A-N-Z-L-Z and Colby at C-P-P-A-T-1-E. Be sure to also check out our Patreon where we talk about the Mariners even more. And also get into some non-baseball talk twice a week. New episode dropping for all of our patrons later today. Visit patreon.com forward slash control the zone for more information on that. On today's episode of Lockdown Mariners, we have a very special guest.

Jason Churchill of Prospectinsider.com and the Baseball Things podcast on Patreon for the next 30 minutes. We'll be talking to Jason about Robbie Ray, what the Mariners will do next and the impending MLB lockout as a whole. If you like what you hear, give the show a follow or subscribe wherever you listen to this. We'd greatly appreciate it. Here's the interview. Enjoy. We're here with Jason Churchill at Prospectinsider.com and the Baseball Things podcast on Patreon. Colby and I are both subscribers to baseball things and we cannot recommend it enough. Joe Doyle, the Prospects Live and Lookout Landing is also now making routine appearances on

there and it's a great listen. Church, thanks so much for joining us. It's been a really busy last few days with the impending lock made up. Do you like the volume of deals we've seen or do you prefer the more spread out nature of a typical offseason? You know, I'm okay either way. I was actually having a conversation with a buddy last night about this. he wants a deadline, you know, like a free agent deadline.

And that could speed things up. But what I don't think would be good for baseball is to have all of them, like all of the signings happen in November, all of the signings happen in December, because there's so much dead time between the end of the season. And even the start of spring training, let alone the start of, you know, the regular season. And I don't think the majority of fans are into spring training at all. It's just games. So you'd go from late September for most teams all the way to April without there being anything for casual fans to care about it all. So I do like a deadline, but I wouldn't black out in November so it can kind of start in December. And that's essentially what the NFL does with like the start of the new season thing always happening like a month or six weeks after the Super Bowl.

And they're being a big dead period. But I don't know. What if you put a February 15, which is generally when spring training starts, kind of a deadline on, you know, healthy free agents, you know, what would that do? You know, I don't know. I think the first thing that I think of is, wouldn't that hurt some of the free agents that are still there? Because they'd have to sign for less. So maybe that's a team-friendly thing.

So there are ups and downs to all of it. But it's always fun to see, I think the best thing about this, I think you guys probably agree. You think about the biggest deals that are out that have been made, that Corey Seeger, obviously. Marcus Semyon in Texas. Gray also in Texas, obviously Robbie Ray in Seattle, Gossman, and Toronto. You think of all these deals have been made. And none of them are Dodgers, Cubs, White Sox, Yankees. The Mets did do the Scherer deal.

If you go through like the top 10 deals outside of the Mets, it's been midmarket types. It's been, you know, Toronto and Seattle and places like in San Francisco bringing back Desclafani and Alex Wood and things like that. Like Boston, you know, like, what's the biggest thing Boston's done at this point? Even St. Louis has made a deal with Stephen Matt's. Like, that I think is probably the coolest part about it. Now, if we could just get Pittsburgh and Tampa and Oakland and, you know, Cincinnati and, you know, teams like that to participate.

I mean, we've got Miami spending money. Yeah. I think that's been the most fun about it is it's not just the same old teams every single year. getting all of the good players. I think that's the best part. So let's talk Robbie Ray. And for transparency sake, we're recording this on Tuesday,

November 30th. So maybe something else has happened with the Mariners. But just going off of the Ray deal, because that's the most recent thing that's happened with the Mariners so far. Five year, $150 million contract, as reported with an option after the third year. Before we get into the player himself,

what's your overall thoughts on this deal for the Mariners, both from a structure standpoint and what kind of statement it makes? Yeah, obviously he has the out after year three, which is a player-friendly thing and, you know, really stands to, and for me it's important. It really stands to, it only really eliminates risk for the team. It gives the player something he might want at 32 years old, Ray can go back out on the market after pitching in a, you know, a ballpark that should actually help him being a fly ball guy. but if anything, it eliminates risk from from Seattle for year four and year five. So, you know, I certainly have no problem. I think that's a huge benefit to the team.

You know, what paying him $23 million a year? That's number two money. Well, guess what? Robbie Ray is a number two starter. But you can look at it the other way, too. And if you're a Maris fan, I think that's the way you should be looking at. Okay, sure. He's not Maxxor's or he's not an absolute ace.

Yes, he won the Say Young. But is he a guy you expect to be like a top two, three, four, saw young candidate every year. At this point, no, he's not Garrett Cole, but you also paid him accordingly. I think that's important here. I think that's the going rate right now, $20, $25 million for a legitimate number two.

And that's how Ray performed in 2021. That's what Seattle paid for. Yeah, I love that. I love everything pretty much about the deal. And I think really, if you're a Mariners fan, you're kind of hoping that he doesn't end up taking that option because that means that he pitch really well and he thinks that he's going to get something

better on the market at that point. So, you know, this is obviously a guy that's had swinging missed stuff forever, but for most of his career, he's had some struggles with the walks, gave up a ton of home runs in 2020. You know, this year, however, he figured some things out, averaged a little under two and a half walks per nine. He goes on to win the Siong, as you mentioned. You know, did you notice any obvious changes in his mechanics this year from last?

And really, I'll ask you the question that's probably on a lot of Mariners fans' minds right now. And you kind of already talked about this a little bit, But to you, is that level of production he had this year or at least something close to that repeatable? I think it is. And you mentioned the swing and miss stuff. That's not new. The 32% is the second highest in his career. He's been over 30 what, you know, four times now total. Even in his worst year, he was at 27%. So you know the stuff is there. Mechanically, yeah, you see a simplified version which helps him repeat. and it's what's important here is what he's repeating. Everything is in sync. Everything is timed properly. It's very, very simple.

And everybody talks about the grunt. And when you're trying to study robbery, raise mechanics, if you have the sound on, you're going to hear the grunts. But, you know, if you watch how he uses his lower half, it's a lot simpler, especially that front leg and how he, you know, pronates, you know, at the waist and uses his hips. There was a lot more to it before a couple of years, especially back 2018, 2019 with Arizona. There was so much more to it.

He's gotten stronger. He's maintained most of his athleticism and a really simple, well-timed set of mechanics that gets him to release point. I mean, we're talking about a guy who's, you know, it's a 95-mile-hour fastball up to 97. Sometimes that slider is 991 miles an hour. he's at the top of his game right now. And, you know, some folks are, you know, and there is risk here, obviously, because he's had just the one really good season with the command.

But because the mechanics are different, you have to believe in it to some level. And because he sustained it for the entire season, he didn't even have, you know, more than a one or two start stretch where he struggled. It was pretty remarkable to be that consistent. And, you know, some of the knocks on him that I'm getting in DMs and stuff already.

Yeah, but he's never thrown 200 innings. Well, how many pitchers actually throw 200 innings these days? I think Ray led the American League and innings pitched in 2021 with 193 and a third and was fifth in major league baseball. That's the starting pitcher role these days is to go six, not seven and eight. And that's exactly what he's done. So I do expect a little bit of regression just because it seems like expecting him to repeat. Pete, a 6.7% walk rate is a bit crazy, is a bit optimistic, but I expect a 30 plus percent strikeout rate. I expect 15% swing and strike rate. I expect the home run rate to go down

because of the ballpark. I think he was around 16% last year. And you mentioned now he struggled with the home run ball the previous years before that, you know, 17, 18, 20% one year back in 2019 in Arizona. But the ballpark should help polar opposite of Chase Field coming to team Mobile Park, which is where Ray came up with, you know, mostly with Arizona. So, yeah, I think most of it's sustainable. Now, if you're telling me he makes 32 starts and throws 190 innings and, you know, walks eight or nine percent, but still strikes out 30, 31 percent. That's pretty much what I expect, to be honest with you.

And, you know, it's still a four-win pitcher. And that's what's going to happen, you know, it's, and now we get down to the details, like, does he stay healthy? Does he make an adjustment the following year? Does he get back? Does he ever get back to exactly what he did last year? But you know what? One of the things that we're ignoring here is there are arms that are late blooms. Kevin Brown comes to mind. Kevin Gosman, who just signed in Toronto that Seattle was in on, comes to mind. What if this is just the start for Robbie Ray? And there's actually another half step above what he performed at a year ago. So we can't entirely ignore that. It's hard to expect that, but we can't completely ignore that because you know that's what Seattle's thinking as possible. And you know for fact that's what Robbie Ray is thinking is possible. That 2021 was really just the start for him and that maybe he can actually pitch better than he did a year ago. So that's pretty exciting. You get a guy out there and go toe to toe with Justin Verlander,

anything that the angels throw out there, anything that, certainly anything the Rangers throw out there as of the last day here in November. You know, Seattle hasn't had that since Felix was Felix. So how can he take that next step? And what could the Mariners do to maybe help them do that? Yeah, I think a lot of this is going to be maintenance. Keep the mechanics together. I don't think there's necessarily anything you need to change there or that you, I'm not sure there's another step to take there.

I mean, when you walk under 70% of the batters you face and pound the zone, you know, that way. I think it might be pitch development. He's mostly fastball slider. And while the fastball is good and the slider is maybe double plus, He doesn't throw his other pitches all that much. I think in 21, he was almost 60% fastball and 30% slider. So he's only throwing about 10% you know, combination curveball change up. I think it's 6% curve on.

He throws a spike kind of knuckle curve. You know, that's really just like once or twice a game and then the occasional changeup. He's gone games without throwing the change up before. So maybe there's something to do with one or both of those pitches where you can get a little more out of one or both of those pitches. had seasons where he's thrown the curveball a lot more, especially back in his final three years in Arizona. And he's had seasons where he's thrown the change up a little bit more, especially really early in his career with Detroit, this first year in Arizona. So maybe there's something there. But I think the ball, as far as just the numbers go, especially the traditional numbers,

the ballpark's going to help those. I mean, if you're an ERA innings, you know, wins kind of guy, and hopefully you're not. I know you guys aren't necessarily all over that. But, you know, Runs allowed, just raw runs allowed, could allow a pitcher to do a couple of things because of that ballpark. Like if he's not giving up runs because the ballpark is helping him, then he can be a little more aggressive in the strike zone because the fly ball is not going to hurt him as much. And you can stay in games along. Maybe it gets to 200 innings because of that. I mean, Toronto is not the easiest ballpark to pitch in. And T-Mobile Park is certainly more pitcher-friendly.

And he's facing the ALS while there's some bats here. the ballparks are, you know, in general, a little bit more friendly. I mean, Seattle, Oakland, Anaheim, you know, all lean, you know, to the pitcher. Whereas in the American League East, you know, it's Yankee Stadium, you know, Tampa is pretty much all over the map. But, you know, his home ballparks that he pitched in last year, multiple home ballparks all lean a little bit toward the hitter or severely toward the hitter in some instances. And obviously Fenway and Baltimore and Baltimore. and Baltimore can be a little wishy-washy, and sometimes it does favor, you know,

pitching over certain seasons. But, you know, that's a pretty nice tradeoff if you're Robbie Ray. You know, that was my first thought when he signed, guys. Like, you know, why wouldn't Ray at least go to the Angels and say, hey, I'm getting 5 and 15 from Seattle. Are you willing to match that? Well, the reason might have been I just believe in for myself that this is a better place. And I believe in Seattle more than I do Anaheves.

Is it really that difficult to get to that point where you think Seattle better than, I mean, they were better than last year. Their future certainly looks brighter. Their general manager is competent. Their owner doesn't meddle. I mean, it's a lot easier when you dig in, you know, why Ray would actually choose Seattle and not take the full tour. We're going to keep this conversation going in just a minute,

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Use promo code Lock 15 and you'll get 15% off your order. That's LOC, KED, 15% off your order at Bilt.com. We're here with Jason Churchill, Prospect Insider. You can find them on Twitter at Prospect Insider. So Jason, you know, the Mariners have filled one of the spot. now in their rotation vacated by Tyler Anderson and you say Kukuchi but they still have to fill out the other at some point. I'm wondering how do you have envisioned them going about that?

And is that just a reunion with Anderson or would you like to see them aim higher? I think if you sign Anderson, he has to be the second of what you do from moving forward. Like I think it's totally okay if you start the year with six starters. I really do, especially if one of them's Tyler Anderson because something's probably going to happen to somebody, whether it be in spring training or whatever. The market for Tyler Anderson is going to be key here or the Tyler Anderson types that are out there. But I do think they should be shooting higher. And I believe they are shooting higher. I'm told that they're still not out on the Reds arms with Luis Castillo at the top of that list. I'm still hearing that

they're hoping Oakland ends up engaging with some of their arms, with obviously Frankie Montas being the prize there, but Sean Mania and Chris Bassett are heading into their walk here that Oakland might be more willing to move those guys. Seattle certainly have interest in seeing what a Mania or a Bassett would cost. Because when you look at that rotation, if you're truly believing you can compete, that rotation has to get better at the top. If Marco Gonzalez starts the season as your second best starter, because I think we can all agree at least right now in terms of reliability and full capability, what they've proven they can do on the hill, you know, year and Marco Gonzalez is their second best starter. If he starts the season as their second best starter,

that's not a good rotation. It's a better rotation than it was a year ago, certainly with Ray at the top, and with Gilbert there all year and with time under his belt. But we don't know what we're going to see from him. I don't know what we're going to see from Chris Flexen, who doesn't miss bats and relies on the ballpark, and now the league has a full book on him. I'm not really sure. what to make of Chris Flex. And he's a fascinating conversation. But if Seattle wants to compete with Houston and compete with whatever the angels do and make sure they keep the Rangers in their rearview, you need another guy. You need another, you know, at least a three. And I think an Alex Wood or a Descalfani would have been good enough. But, you know, Marcus Stroman, you know, would certainly

fit that. I don't seem going down that path. I think it's going to happen via trade. But they're certainly in on on everybody they made calls on stephen mats as well they actually talked about mats and talked to his representative it was before they went the robbie ray route um so yeah i think you have to shoot higher if you're seattle and and i think spending a hundred and fifteen million dollars and committing that uh to roby ray suggests that 22 uh like they mean you know like their intent their their words that jerry's been speaking and that in some way john stanton's been speaking and that in some way john stanton's been speaking and Scott Services and speaking kind of, you know, at fans on, you know, during interviews, the postseason conference, press conference, a few days after the year ended, it's all been about we really think we're headed in the right direction, but it's more than that. We really think we can actually compete and contend next year. And while they have a long way to go, probably further than most fans thought, because you look at 90 wins, you think they're really, really close. They understood how far away they are. And it really sounds like they've

fully intend on filling those gaps somehow. So I'd be a little surprised that they ended up having to go the Tyler Anderson route. But, you know, you could do worse. You certainly could do worse. And you do have Matt Brash and Brandon Williamson and George Kirby coming at some point. But I think you have to aim higher. I think they are. So aside from the Reds guys, aside from the A's guys,

are there any other starting pitchers out there potentially in the trade market that maybe Mariners fans are overlooking that they might be in on maybe John Means or someone along those lines. Yeah, John Means. There's actually a lot of buzz about John Means right now. And I'm not necessarily hearing Seattle is connected to it. But I'd be surprised if they didn't, you know, at least call. Yeah, there's a couple other guys to think about what in the world is Arizona doing right now? And every time I bring up the Diamondbacks, everybody's like, yes, Coteau-Marté, get me Marte and stick him in center. Well, he's terrible in center. He's more of a second basement. Does he still fit? Maybe. But what about some of their arms there?

What about Merrill Kelly as a four? What about Zach Gallen as a three or a de facto two to stick between the two lefties at the top of your rotation? If you go Robbie Ray, Zach Gallant, Marco Gonzalez, that's a pretty good one, two, three. Is it top five in majorly bit? No. But that's a really good place to be to start the year. You balance that rotation a little bit. Gallants had some really good years.

You put them in more of a pitcher's ballpark and kind of see what happens. to his home run rates and things of that nature. He's not as severe a fly ball guy as Robbie Ray, but he's still going to throw the ball up in the zone and hitters are going to be able to lift his stuff. You know, there are some folks out there that are a little worried about his ability to miss bats is starting to, you know, to wane a little bit. But still we're talking about at very worst,

a league average starter, Zach Gallen, to me, makes a ton of sense. I know he's not the, you know, he's not Luis Castillo. He's not Frankie Montas. He's not as big a name. But, you know, we're talking about a guy with a little less than three full years of experience. He's 26 years old, controlled through 2025. So he's certainly cheap. You know, is he going to be cheap to acquire?

No, but I still think you can stay away from your top three or four and go make a deal with Arizona. So maybe a Zach Gallon makes them. And if you don't want to spend, you know, that much. you really just want a four, you know, or a five. Again, stay in Arizona. Talk about Merrill Kelly. He's a little older. You know, he's on a deal right now that takes him through 2022,

but he won't be free agent eligible once that's over because of service time. I think he enters 2022 with just three years of service time. But we're looking at another around league average kind of guy with a little bit of upside. He's got a 180 inning season under his belt, 160. inning season under his belt after coming over from kboh so you know he's a little bit like uh like chris flexen he's not going to miss a lot of bats but he's still going to give you any he's reliable i think he's really interesting as well and he'd obviously be cheaper than than that zack gallon in pittsburgh baker's the name that i keep bringing up you know what is pittsburgh

actually going to try to do if they're entertaining offers for brian anderson why wouldn't they also be entertaining offers for j t brewbaker so if we learned that the the reynolds stuff is is legitimate, the center field is switching to center fielder, then obviously somebody like Brubaker would make some sense to ask about as well. And he's another pretty good mid-rotation guy that's heading north. You know, we talked about the Marlins guys over the off season, but I think that's pretty much what you're looking at there. And, you know, I think as teams, you know, fail to fill holes

or see the market develop, the trade market develop after free agents start to, you know, get pulled off the board, I think that's when more of these clubs start to decide, hey, we should actually sell. We should actually trade this guy because the market is, you know, is kind of hopping for this sort of thing. So that's kind of what I expect with the starting pitching market. Now that Gosman and Ray ensures are off the board that we're going to start hearing more about trades right now. Yeah. So keep John Means, even though he's another lefty, you know, Merrill Kelly, Zach Gallen, guys like that, J.T. Brubaker.

keep those guys in mind on top of the more obvious types like the Cincinnati Trio and the three in Oakland. So most of the focus has been on the likes of Chris Bryant, Trevor Story, Chris Taylor. We'll talk about them in a little bit. But the Mariners are also looking to upgrade in the outfield as well, particularly in center field. But options to be generous are pretty bare right now. So I'm curious. What are some ways you think they can navigate that and find some incapable of playing center field for them in 2022.

Yeah, I think the way I look at it right now without subtracting somebody that's in the mix right now, somebody like Kyle Lewis, without subtracting Lewis from the equation, I still like the idea of a guy like Kevin Kerrmeyer, who's making more money than Tampa really wants to pay him. He's still capable at the plate, at least in a limited role. He's still a very good defensive player. He would instantly become by far your best defensive outfielder, and you can probably get him for, I don't want to say nothing, but cheap.

enough if you're going to take on most or all of that salary because that's what Tampa is about. So somebody like that would make a lot of sense. They really need that guy to be a left-handed bat. So that does kind of limit things a little bit. But there are other ways to alleviate that. So if you fall into a right-handed version of that or you have to go the route of Victor Robles, who might be available in Washington, take a flyer on him or somebody like Kevin Pilar who's on the market. You know, if it's just a guy who's going to play 50 to 70 games and it's going to be a combination of Lewis and Kellnick and Center for the other games, then you can certainly make that work. Another interesting name, like, if we're talking about Jared Kelnick and Kyle Lewis ultimately sharing that spot in 2020, because that's where we are right now.

Like Hanneger's not going to play there. Fraley probably shouldn't play there, but he could also be in the mix. but we're talking about, you know, fringy, you know, at best. And I think Lewis is about average. We're not really sure what that most recent knee injury is going to do to his range. But, you know, we're looking at 45. You're probably going to get 45 overall performance at a center field if you play those three guys in center field. Well, you know who else is a fringe center fielder?

Ian Hap. And he's a left-handed bat with some ability. And, you know, what are the Cubs doing? Like, they're certainly not being aggressive. So, you know, why wouldn't you go out and see what Ian Hap can bring to the table? And he does bring a little bit of positional flexibility with him having played a little bit of second base. Again, not that you'd want to play him there much. And he's not an all-star or anything.

I don't even think he's ever been a two-win player. But he's got some pop at 25 home runs last year. You know, the strikeout rates are what, 27, 28, 29 percent. But he'll draw some walks. He only at 226 last year, but his OBP was above league. average to go at those 25 home runs. He was essentially Kyle, you know, Seeger at the plate last year. Would you take that guy with fringe average defense in center field?

As long as it didn't cost you something in your, you know, your top eight or 10, you might, you know. And we're talking about a guy who is a free agent after the 23 season. So you'd essentially get him for for two seasons. I think a guy like Ian Hap could make a lot of sense in Seattle as well. one of the names that people keep throwing at me is, is Jock Peterson, but he belongs nowhere near center field anymore.

I think Ian Hap's actually better in center than Jack Peterson. Peterson's defense in center has fallen faster than anything. I can remember any specific skill in Major League Baseball I can remember. I mean, even faster than Felix Hernandez's sinker effectiveness. Peterson just flat out can't play center field anymore. It's really weird. But Ian Hap is okay, you know, out there.

I think at least, you know, sharing that role, he'd be fine. More Mariners talk on the way with Jason Churchill of Prospect Insider and Baseball Things. But real quick, a reminder of this episode of Lockdown Mariners is brought to you by betonline. AG. Bet Online has you covered all season with more props, odds, and lines than ever before as football continues the march to the playoffs. Bet Online remains your number one spot for all the sports action this season. Head to our new updated desktop or mobile website to sign up today and receive your 50

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and easiest way to bet on all your favorite sports. Bet online, where the game starts. All right, so let's talk about the infielders. Right now, tons of rumors going around about story Bryant, Taylor. They've all been heavily linked to the Mariners, for some reason Brian is talking to the to the Rockies.

That's strange. But let me just ask you this straight up. Who's the best fit of that group in your mind for the Mariners? I definitely think it's not Trevor Story. Trevor Story's value is as a shortstop. Now, if you want to take a little bit of that away and play them at second, I think you can make that work depending on what you're paying them. But if you're expecting Trevor Story to come in and hit 280 with 30 home runs,

team mobile park's not the place that he's probably going to do that so you have to be concerned about what he's going to do away from course anyway and then you're throwing him in one of the top what five to eight pitchers parks in baseball a park that suppresses fly ball still not as much as it used to but it still does and then you're going to you know you're going to ask him to move in this scenario to third base or you're going to ask him to play second and you're going to move adam fraser to third base and share time with abraham toro i just don't think that fits I don't think it's ideal at all. And I think you end up paying for a player and then taking away his greatest ability to help you. And that's defensively at shortstop where he's above average. Chris Bryant's the guy. And it really sucks that we're sitting here talking about one option now. Losing out on Marcus Semyon at second base, while it hurts, I mean, the chances that they were going to be able to get Semyon weren't great anyway, because lots of teams going to be involved.

And we saw what happened with the. offer the Texas Rangers made and sent me and jumped all over it. But what that does is it really narrows down the possibilities. It's really Chris Bryant or bust in terms of free agent third basement. If you want to get a big bat for your infield, that's it.

It's Chris Bryant. Now, fans out there are freaking out because it's like what if we don't get Bryant, then what? When this is a conversation Joe Doyle and I have had on baseball things the last couple of days, there are lots of ways, and I've been preaching this for weeks. There are lots of ways to make

to put together a lineup that's pretty good without adding Semyon, without adding story, without adding Chris Bryant. Maybe Chris Taylor is part of that in basically the same role that he's carried in Los Angeles with the Dodgers. Playing a little second, fill in it short, maybe play a little third, play a little left, and he can even play a little bit of center field for you. But I think you do it with more pieces. I think you do it with quantity instead of just leaning on quality. And there's nothing wrong with that.

You know, we talk about, we talk about how good the raise are, a lot of things. But let's just look at that team and their results. Who in that lineup scares you? Who in that, like, this is a serious question. Who in the race lineup are you like, well, you have to be really careful with none, right? The answer is none. I guess until they got Nelson Cruz at some point last year, then they're like, well, he's going to hit the ball 450 feet if we're not careful. But they've been in the World Series and won a division without a single guy in their lineup.

that you're actually, you actually go in the game worried about. Zero. It's remarkable. And it's because they have eight or nine quality hitters in the lineup just about everything. Guys that make contact, guys that have some power, guys that hit the ball all over the field, guys that draw walks. There are a lot of ways. It's not just about hitting home runs and having guys that fit in the traditional like two,

three, four, five holes of a lineup. There are a lot of ways to do it. Imagine having a third base platoon of, say, Oh, Jonathan VR and Abraham Toro. And you're using Frazier at second base mostly, but Toro can play there. VR can actually play there as well. And let's say you go out and you get a Michael Conforto for the outfield and you go get a bench piece like Kevin Polar to fill in in center field. And you're using Toro and Terens for about 300 to 400 plate appearances a year.

So at least a lot of the D8 spots open. So you'll be able to play Conforto in right field, leaving Lewis slash Pilar and center and Kelnick and left. left and you can put Hanager at DH or you can put Kalnick at DA. There's a lot of ways you can do that. You're not getting great defense out of center field. But all of a sudden, that's a pretty good lineup because where's the biggest hole? Other than catcher, every hitter in that lineup has showed us something. You know, even Kalnick and left field, the last five plus weeks of 2021, showed us something. And you have a backup plan there if he doesn't hit. And that's shipping back to

Tacoma and play Lewis Hanager and Conforto together and make Torrens the regular D.H. There are a lot of ways to go about building a lineup that can score you, you know, four and a half to five runs a game, you know, helping the club win, helping the club compete with the Astros. I get a lot of questions about how does Seattle build an offense that's as good as the Astros. Well, first of all, they don't have to. They don't have to do that. And you can be better at a lot of things, defense, base running, pitching, you know,

rotation, bullpen, things like that. And Seattle has an edge in some of those areas already over Houston. You just have to get an offense that can consistently produce runs instead of what we've seen the last couple of years, even in 2021 where, you know, they were, you know, we saw it, you know, a lot of nights where it seemed like they just didn't have a chance. And they're facing, you know, a middling pitcher or a pitcher they've never faced before, a pitcher casual fans have never even heard of. But yeah, if you miss out on Bryant, because I think he's,

really is the key for the big fish to get something around the infield. I think that's free agency-wise. If you miss out on Chris Bryant, you're probably going to attack this with quantity over quality. So you'd have more average-ish hitters and you'd have significantly fewer

above average to plus hitters because you might only have one or two, but you can still score a lot of runs that way and the 10th Bay raise are the perfect example of that. Yeah. So of course, there are a ton of variables when it comes to free agents and the casual fan often loses sight of that. I know for a lot of Mariners fans, every free agent is realistically on the table, but you and I both know that's not the case.

However, you know, disregarding that for a moment and just strictly talking about talent and the contract they sign, was there a deal or maybe even a trade that you've seen this winter where you went? Man, it would have been nice for the Mariners to do that. That's a really good question. I think the opposite, actually, because they were interested in Stephen Matt's, and then he gets four years. You know, I think I'm the other way. I haven't really seen a lot of overpays that the Stephen Matt's contract is probably the closest because he's so risky. You just, you know, he's good when healthy. He's one of those guys. Yeah, I haven't really seen, you know, a whole lot of it. I think once the trades actually start to happen a little more, we're probably going to see that.

but in terms of, you know, what's happened so far in the three weeks since, since everything opened up, I haven't really seen a lot of that. I mean, there are a lot of like, hey, that player would have made sense. But it's not like, yeah, the Mariners should have bettered that deal. Should they have gone 7 and 175 on Marcus Semi and no? No, should they've gone 8 and 190 on Marcus Semi? Of course not. No. Should they have gone 10 and 325 on course, tiger?

No, not that it would have mattered, but no. Should they blow everybody out of the water for Chris Bryant to make sure they get him? No. And I'm going to use this moment to reiterate this. And I think you guys are on board. Like everybody wants the Mariners to just spend, spend, spend, spend, spend. And I totally get it. And can they afford to do it.

Yes, John Stant can afford to spend $250 million a year on payroll. And the team would still make money or come close to breaking even. And the ownership would never be the worst for it. But that's not reality. And Jerry DiPoto has a budget. And while we don't know what that budget is, we know it's not over the luxury tax. We know that at least for this year, there's no goal to get $250 million or $120 million or $170 million. So we have to think along with Jerry DeVoto and his front office about how they go about things

and how they're going to ramp up the roster. Everybody wants the payroll to be ramped up. But how about just build a good roster? You know, pretty much no matter what it takes. It might take more than this year. And I think that's something that that fans should realize that we're probably going to get to the start of the season and you're going to look at the roster and go, okay, yeah, you know, it's a lot better, but I still don't really love it. That's fair, and that's probably going to be true. To be honest with you, I think I'm going to love it, you know,

knowing that Kelnett can bust that, and I mean, bust through and be good, and Holy Rodriguez could come up and be really good right away. And Cal Rale can take a huge step forward, and Thai France can still take a huge step forward, and Toro can take a huge step forward. everything is really open to trend in the right direction. And there's very few opportunities for things to go south. And I think that's really important for fans to realize.

Like if I told you that Thai France was going to go 300, 370, 530 this year with 30 home runs, there'd be a little bit less pressure to grab Chris Bryan at third base, went there? Like, Thai France was good last year. But what if he was great? What if he was basically Freddie Freeman, right? Like that changes the, that's possible. That's absolutely plausible that happens. Mitch Hanigert, there's still a step for Mitch Hanigar to get back, you know, some of the hit tool that he showed, you know, prior to the injuries.

Like the power, love it. It's there. He's going to hit 30 bombs if he stays healthy. But, you know, maybe he can hit 270, 340 while hitting those 30, 35 home runs instead of what he did a year ago, which was give in a little bit on some of the patients that he showed. So there are a lot of ways this team can get better, you know, offensively. I just think it's important, I think, for, you know, for fans to stay engaged. So the more Seattle does, you know, the better. But I just, I don't look around and go, yeah, the Mariners should have done that.

It's really hard for me to get to that space. It's really hard for me, guys, to to really sympathize with fans. even after 20 years of, you know, junk baseball, essentially, to go, yeah, I totally get why they just, you know, they want the merits to better every single deal. Because all it takes is an adult brain to say, hey, it's November 30 or it's December 8 or it's December 20. They've signed Robbie Ray. Sometimes, you know, things just don't happen, you know, in some, you know, order by design. Like, it's not like Jerry's like, all right, number one, here's what we're going to do. and if we don't we're screwed. And number two, no, it's like, hey, this could go one of a thousand

ways, both today, tomorrow for the whole off season and the next three years. There are thousands of different ways, you know, it can go. And there are a lot of different results that can happen. But man, sometimes, like you see the path the Braves took. You see the path the Astros took. You see the path the White Sox took. You see what's going on in Minnesota where it's been, there's been a lot of up and down. Like, that can happen. And it's not a failure if the, the Mariners head into 2022 looking like an 88 win team. I fully expect that to be the case. They look like an 88 win team, but the ceiling is still probably going to be 95 wins or more because of all the young talent that they're bringing up.

So Jason Churchill, Prospect Insider, Baseball Things Podcasts on Patreon. You should go subscribe to it. Jason, anything else you want to plug before we hop off here? Not really. You know, I'm just kind of, to be honest with you, I'm with everybody else and I'm kind of sitting on pins and needles for the rest of today and just to kind of see what happens, if anything, and there's a lot of buzz right now, but so far we're most away through the day and not a whole lot's happened. So, you know, Mariners pull off another thing. We'll, you know, we'll record on it. And I will remind folks that

Luke Arkins is carrying Prospect Insire right now with some really good stuff. And he had some interesting stuff to say. He's an incredible content creator. And sometimes I forget to go back and catch up on his stuff and I learned something new. He looks at things through an entirely different lens than I do and it really helps me to, uh, to see what he's thinking and, and that, because it's all, it's all facts. It's all research. It's facts. It's numbers. And then a, uh, you know, the interpretation of those numbers is very straight and narrow. So I love what Luke's doing over at Prospect Insiders. So you get a chance. Go check out what he's had to say about, uh, about Robbie Ray. Some pretty good, uh, some pretty important numbers, uh, especially in

regards to fly balls, which I think is a pretty key for Robbie Ray moving forward. That was Jason Churchill, a prospect insider and baseball things. We really appreciate him coming on and we hope you enjoyed our discussion. It was a lot of fun. That's going to do it for our show today. Thank you so much for joining us here on Lockdown Mariners. I'm Taday Gonzalez. Be sure to give the show a follow on Twitter at L.O. underscore Mariners.

You can follow me at Dane Gonzalez. That's D-A-N-Z-L-Z. You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode. Thank you again for making Lockdown Mariners. your first listen of the day, just like you do here every day. We greatly appreciate the support. Be sure to check us out tomorrow for what is more than likely going to be the first of many lockout episodes. However, ESPN's Buster Only has reported that the Mariners may be working on sign in a third baseman.

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