Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Mailbag: 14-Win Pitchers, Ken Giles Expectations and More

Episode Date: February 2, 2022

Hosts Ty Dane Gonzalez and Colby Patnode answer your questions, including which Mariners pitcher could surprisingly win 14 or more games, what to expect from Ken Giles and more.Be sure to follow or subscribe to Locked On Mariners wherever you prefer your podcasts! For questions and other inquiries, email: [e-mail] the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @danegnzlz | @CPat11For more of Ty and Colby, check out their Patreon: patreon.com/controlthezone/Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.BetOnline AGThere is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You are Locked-on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. All right, take two. Welcome to Locked-on Mariners. Apologies for no episode on Monday. If you missed our tweet, we completely recorded Monday show. But when I went to edit it, my audio was completely blown out.

And we just couldn't use it. So we're going to record this episode again. And hopefully everything works out well this time. Thank you so much for making us your first listen of the day. Today is Wednesday, February 2nd, 2022. Happy eight-year anniversary of Super Bowl 48 to you if you're a Seahawks fan. I'm your host, Taday Gonzalez, joined as always by my co-host, Colby Patnode. Follow us on Twitter at L-O-U-U-U-N-Rerner.

You can follow me at Dan Gonzalez, that's D-A-N-Z-L-Z and Colby at C-P-E-E-T-1. Be sure to also check out our Patreon where we talk about the Mariners even more and also get into some non-baseball talk twice a week. It's a lot of fun over there. So if you want to get more of us, especially during this time when we're only recording three episodes a week, or in this case, this week, two episodes. Hop on over to patreon.com forward slash control the zone.

For more information on that, if you are interested. So because we lost our episode on Monday, we're going to be doing our weekly mailbag all over again. we had eight questions we went over during that recording and that's where we're going to be sticking to over the next 30 or so minutes so if you submitted a question after we recorded on Monday we're going to get to that next week we have it saved if you sent if you submitted a question I know that daisy and the dingo had a couple questions we'll get to those next week but for now we're going to stick to the to the questions that we we had on our show sheet on Monday and if this is

your first time joining us welcome to the show if you like like what you hear, give us a follow or subscribe, wherever you listen to this. We'd greatly appreciate it. So let's start with the, uh, the questions that we got via email. And we're going to start with, uh, Jay Kwa, who says, uh, he's got a couple of questions, by the way, but, uh, Jay Kwa's first question, uh, asked about Chris Flexen, um, saying that he was a surprise 14 game winner last season. And, uh, and he wants to know, uh, who we think will be this year's surprise 14 game winning pitcher on the Mariners. Colby, you, want to start? Yeah. So obviously given this more thought since the last time I answered, but

I still think the correct answer is probably Chris Flexson, who I think a lot of people are assuming is due for regression now that the leak has gotten a look at him and, you know, they're familiar with what he's capable of. And there will be an adjustment period there at some point. But we also saw adjustment periods for flex and in season. And he was able to make those adjustments in season. So I think this idea that there's, you know, there's nothing left for his, like, his stuff can't get a little bit better. There's nothing really that he can improve on. I don't think that's accurate because we saw him do it through the season. We saw, you know, he was, he was really cutter heavy early. And then he started to use the change up more. And then the change up was having issues. So he went to the curve.

And then we saw velocity, you know, kind of uptick a little bit towards the end of the year. Like he was not running out of gas at the end of the year. So I think there's still a little bit more in Flexen. And I think just this idea that like, well, you know, flexin was a good one year hit. But after this year, he's probably like he's a number five and blah, blah, blah. I don't know, man. I think Flexen might have good enough stuff to be a number three, like a low middling three. And so I think that.

the answer might be Chris Flexon surprises people and does it again. I can't really think of anybody else that would be all that surprising out of the four guys who are in the rotation right now. So unless you're willing to say like Justin Dunn or Justice Sheffield or George Kirby gets called up soon enough to win 14 games, I just, I think the answer is Chris Flexon. Yeah, I don't think that it can really be anyone else like you mentioned. I mean, you look at Marco Gonzalez. Marco Gonzalez has won 16 games before.

I think he could, you know, do that again. I mean, wins in the end for pitchers are not really all that important. They don't really tell the majority of the story. I mean, heck, you know, if you're a closer. I mean, we saw Fernando Rodney win a bunch of games after he blew, you know, a lead in the ninth inning, et cetera. So, you know, these things in the end don't really matter. But, yeah, I think, like, would even, you know,

Logan Gilbert in this situation be a surprise because I think he's going to take a huge step. We're going to be talking about him a little bit more later on in this show. But yeah, I don't really think that there's like one clear surprise name in here other than Chris Flexen because I'm kind of in that same boat where I'm a little bit hesitant on Flexon. I was very impressed with what we saw out of him this past year. I mean, how could you not be? especially when you saw as you mentioned the velocity uptick we saw him reaching 95 that that was that was really intriguing and and i'm i'm interested to see how you know because we've been talking a lot about how the league is going to adjust to flex him but how is flexing going to adjust to the league knowing that

now they have a full book on him and so that that's really interesting to me and i think you know the ballpark um is a good fit for him um I think, you know, you saw some growth out of him. You saw him comfortable. You saw, you know, you saw him really become the most consistent starter in the Mariners rotation last year. And so that helps with confidence. And I'm really, I'm really interested to see how maybe he picks that up and progresses forward instead of regressing, which seems to be kind of the assumption on him. But maybe we should pump the brakes on that.

Maybe Chris Flexen is actually good. Maybe Chris Flexen can win 14 games again in 2022. So, yeah, that would be my choice as well. I think he's really the clear choice because a lot of people are kind of down on him right now, heading into this year. But maybe they shouldn't be. Who knows? So the other question that we got from Jayquah asked about jerseys.

Is it time for the Mariners to use a new Sunday jersey? For me, I'm going to say no, because I actually really like the Sunday jerseys. I think it's honestly it's my favorite of the ones that they currently wear. I love the colors. You know, that's the color palette that I wish that they would get back to when they eventually rebrand. We thought that was probably going to happen this year, but it doesn't seem like that's going to be the case.

So I guess next year, hopefully, with the All-Star game and everything, they're going to be doing that. But, yeah, I don't think that they need to change right now. I would assume they're probably changing in about a year's time, but right now, no, I like those jerseys a lot. Yeah, you know, I think, I think Ty and I actually correctly assume that the Mariners were going to do a uniform rebrand this winter. And it would make sense with kind of this new era of Mariners baseball being ushered in.

And, you know, you're coming off of a 91 season. and you have all these young kids coming up, it made sense. And obviously, Kevin Martinez was dropping hints on Twitter, asking about uniform colors and all that stuff. I think that changed when the Mariners got the All-Star game. And when it became painfully clear that we were headed towards a lockout.

Because doing it now, a year before you get the All-Star game and a year before, or any year in which, you know, players and owners are at each other's throats. I think that's why we're not getting new. uniforms this winter like we thought. I think we're going to get them next winter. But the Sundays.

It's unfortunate too because I feel like this is a good time to do it too because this really feels like the switch is being flipped, right? It feels like this is a new era of Mariners baseball. It's also the first off season where you're getting, you know, where you're targeting some big names. You already got Robbie Ray. Like imagine like having Robbie Ray and Trevor Story, you know, making their first appearance as Mariners and, you know,

new uniforms and signaling the new. era of Mariners baseball. Then you got Julio coming up and George Kirby, et cetera. It just, it kind of, it kind of feels weird delaying it by a year and kind of having all this stuff happened in a,

and what is ultimately going to be looked upon as a, as, you know, an older era of Mariners baseball. But, um, yeah, you know,

in the end, it doesn't really matter. But, um, yeah, it's, it is kind of, you know,

it is kind of an unfortunate. And, you know, there was never like any confirmation or anything that was really official that was pointing in the direction of this happening, this off season. There was some murmurs. There was someone on Reddit that, that, I don't know, people seem to gravitate to that that said some stuff about the uniforms and kind of the direction the Mariners were heading. It seemed like there was going to be more emphasis on the Northwest Green, the Reddit post said. But who knows if that was real, right? anyone can have a a Reddit

you know account so but yeah to answer your question jacquah I I like them I like the Sunday uniforms and I hope even if they if they do rebrand

soon and they do lean more into the into the to the Navy and the Northwest green that they still maintain some sort of nod to the to the older color palette of the blue and the gold

in some way if that's, you know, maybe doing a different iteration of the Sunday alternates where it's still cream with the, you know, it's still a cream base with the blue and gold or or what have you. I would like to see that stick around in some form. So we'll see. We'll see what they do. I'm excited about it, though. It's always fun when you get new uniforms and, you know, see your team get rebranded unless you're the Washington commanders, which those uniforms are terrible.

Welcome to the AAF. It's so bad, right? Like, they spent two years on that to make them look like an AAF team. It's terrible. Anyway, this is not a Washington Commanders podcast. This is a Seattle Marist podcast. And we're going to be talking about Logan Gilbert now. Cole has a question asking about Gilbert and what we think his ceiling is in terms of rotation spots and his whole career.

I think this year, you know, Gilbert at most is probably going to be. number three in the rotation with a more you know with the likelihood that he's probably going to be four or five in the rotation um ultimately that doesn't matter in the end but i that's probably how they have it structured especially if they add someone like sunny gray um i don't you know he might get in over like he they might put him in front of flexen but who knows um as as as far as his whole career goes though like i still see lincoln gilbert as a high in two at the end of the day. Like I think he's going to be a really good pitcher who who flashes, you know, number one, you know, more, you know, quite often. But I think he's going to be solidly a high end number two for a good part of his career.

And, and I think that might actually start this year. We'll see. Like the fact that he was able to pitch as well as he did in September, especially against the quality of, of, of opponents. that he faced with really just one pitch, the fastball working for him. It's incredibly impressive. So if he can get everything else working, I mean, it's hard not to be really excited about what that could mean for Logan Gilbert moving forward. So, yeah, I have very high expectations for him.

I don't think that he's going to be an ace. I don't think he's going to be consistent, number one. I think we'll see flashes of that. I think there might even be a year or two where, he pitches at a number one level. But I think mostly like when we, you know, say hopefully, you know, 10, 15 years down the road when Logan Gilbert eventually calls it a career, we can look back on his career and say, yeah, he was definitively like a high end to for the majority of his career. Colby. Yeah, I think that's probably pretty accurate.

I think, you know, he's, I think the most you can reasonably expect from him this year is to be a pretty solid number three. And I think his ceiling falls short of ace. We'll see to be an ace. He's going to have to get the slider and the change up, you know, working. And last year we never saw him have a start where he had both of those off speed pitches. It was one or the other or none. And he's still competed very well. So that's obviously a good sign.

I think, you know, he's probably going to tap out in that Aaron Nolo range. if you're looking for an actual comp here. But yeah, so this year I would expect him to be, you know, better than it was last year. But not quite reaching his overall potential. But I think long term, he's probably a really solid number two. With, I would throw an Aaron Nola cop on him. All right.

We're going to be talking about catchers in just a moment. But real quick, a reminder of this episode of Lockdown Mariners. It's brought to you by Bill Barr. It's the new year. So that means New Year's resolutions. And if yours is about getting fit or eating healthier, make sure you include Bilt Bar in your plan. Bilt Bar is the protein bar that tastes like a candy bar,

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order. That's promo code LOC, KED, 15% off your order at built.com. You're listening to Lockdown Mariners. Thank you again for making us your first listen to the day, just like you do here every day. We greatly appreciate your support. Let's get back into your questions for a weekly mailbag, starting with Hayden, who says, hey, guys, love the show. Thank you so much, Hayden. Appreciate you tuning in. I am concerned like you all are about our catcher position going into 2022 and beyond. Do you guys ever see Mike Zanito

coming back in 2023 as a free agent or what other catchers would you like to see here in Seattle if our current catchers don't pan out? Thanks for everything. Thank you for the question, Hayden. So how are we feeling about the catcher position going into 2022, Colby?

You got Tom Murphy, you got Luis Terens, got Cal Raleigh, who probably needs to start the year in Tacoma. And then what do you think about the prospect of bringing back Mike Zanino at some point? We've obviously talked about him a few times on fan fiction Friday episodes. I think a lot of Mariners fans are interested in bringing back Zanino. But how do you think that could work? And where do you think the Mariners really are?

Like, could it be worse? Could it be a lot better? What's your level of concern here? So I think the Mariners' current catching situation is suboptimal but not disastrous, if that makes sense. Right. The things we saw from Tom Murphy in the second half of last year make him about a league average catcher. And then obviously what we saw in 2019 was more than that. So really, it's just a two-month blip for Murphy, who, you know, remember, did not play baseball in 2020.

I think he broke his ankle in the summer camp, and he never got back. So, yeah, you know, kind of took him a little while to get settled. But overall, he's okay. You would love for him to be your number two. Cal Raleigh, like you said, probably needs to go to AAA, but it sure sounds like the Mariners are going to put him on the opening day roster. so hopefully that's you know hopefully there's some real improvement there because he was objectively awful during his stent last year so yeah it's not ideal are you concerned about that by the way having three catchers oh that um yeah i guess they probably don't consider

turenza catcher they're carrying Murphy and Raleigh right yeah the the the thing though that's interesting about that right is like after the season scouts ever said like louis torrens is going to catch yeah unprompted so what's changed well unprompted he brought him up as being in the catcher mix next year but right you know again we we had heard rumors that louis torrent just doesn't want to catch like he's he doesn't want to do it yeah um and obviously there's the other benefit of well when he stopped catching last year that happened to coincide with him turning into our best hitter, or second best hitter in June until the end of the year.

And so, yeah, it's kind of like, hey, are you willing to trade some of that bat for below average catcher defense? Which, I mean, I know last year was gone awful, but the year before, he was okay back there, right? So what's more important to you? So, yeah, I think that the Mariners, I don't think they're going to make a splash at catcher this winter. there's really not a splash guy to go get. No. Anyways. The market is a barren waste land right now, free agency-wise.

Kurt Suzuki is probably your best option. And that subsequently is going to impact the trade market where it's just going to make teams probably ask for ridiculous returns on some of their guys. Even someone that has a year left, just one year left, like a Wilson Contreras. Yeah. Now you get to the trade deadline. maybe that plan changes. Maybe the prices come down, right?

Especially for a team like the Cubs that I don't think is going to be competing in, you know, 2022. At least not to the point where they're going to be unwilling to trade off basically a rental at catcher, especially now that they've signed young gomes. I don't know. It's just right now there's just no real options for the Mariners to get better at the position. and really at the end of the day, you could probably be a lot worse than you are right now. I think Tom Murphy, you know, solid defensive catcher,

obviously last year wasn't, but I think he can be a solid defensive catcher again. I think he can at least provide some offensive production here and there. Like he doesn't feel like a total black hole in your lineup, like some catchers end up feeling. And then, you know, if you can get anything out of, out of Terenz defensively, cool. If not, I mean, hopefully you find another spot for him to play because I don't know, having,

like you have a lot of guys that don't really provide any defensive value or value on the base pass right now. And so that, that does concern me having. too many of those guys, especially if you're carrying technically three catchers or two, however you feel about Luis Terenz. You know, if Raleigh's in that mix as well, I don't know. There's just a lot of guys with a very similar profile in there, at least offensively. And that's just, I'm not super excited about that.

I would like a little more defensive versatility. I would like some more speed. I would like, you know, that's how I would like for this team to be built, especially on the bench. but yeah as far as catching depth goes though like this is going to be it probably I wouldn't expect them to suddenly be in the market for like Sean Murphy or Carson Kelly or someone like that like I just I think it's going to get way to if those guys were available so that's true too yeah that's true so yeah but Mike Sanino next year it could make sense yeah absolutely could yeah because you know next year they'll have more information on

Raleigh, they'll have more information on Murphy. And, you know, they'll obviously they'll know what Louis Trens' future is defensively at that point. And, yeah, Zanino would be appealing because he at least gives you some offensive value, hits for power. And he's a really good defender. So, yeah, he would make a lot of sense, especially for a team like Seattle, who we are hoping is coming off of a deep playoff run and now has eyes instead of, you know, breaking a playoff drought, their new goal. is to win the World Series, and you don't want black holes on your roster to want if you're trying to win a World Series.

So Zanino would certainly fill that gap. So, yeah, it's definitely possible this winter. You know, and there's an outside shot that Zanino's made available in July, you know, regardless of if the race are in the playoff race or not. And if he is, then I would be very interested if I were Seattle. So, yeah, it's definitely a possibility. like most players to teams,

it's not likely. You know, the overwhelming odds are that he goes elsewhere, but it's definitely a possibility and you really don't have to squint that hard to see a scenario where Mike Zanino to the Mariners

makes a ton of sense for both player and team next winter. Yeah. So Cody switching over to Twitter here now, Cody Anderson at code underscore mode 15, asked about Cal Raleigh. Do you believe that Cal Raleigh is going to be the Mariners' future everyday catcher? Or is he just keeping the seat warm for Harry Ford?

Who has the higher ceiling and floor? To answer the second part of that question, it's Harry Ford because wherever he ends up defensively, he's going to play up the middle, catcher second base, center field, what have you, at least in terms of the higher ceiling, right? I think floor wise, Colby, you said this in the recording that has been lost now, that Raleigh's already made the big leagues. So technically he has the, you know, the better floor of the two here because there's obviously the shot that Harry Ford doesn't make the major leagues, right? We haven't seen that yet.

We all assume that he's going to at some point. I'm pretty confident that he will at some point. Yep. But, yeah, right now, yeah, Raleigh has the floor, but Ford by far has the ceiling because he's going to play up the middle. he's got power he's got the athleticism that alone um makes him you know like he's the better asset right if we're just stacking the two up against one another um but yeah raleigh i i'm confident that raleigh is going to be a good major leaguer at some point though i think i think the bat is eventually going to come around i think he's going to hit for a ton of power i think he's

going to be at least an average defensive catcher like i think he's going to be a good major leaguer i don't know if that's going to be at 2022. But I think at some point, we're going to see Cal Raleigh etch out a pretty solid career for himself. I mean, Colby, you compared him to Jared Salta Lamaccia, which you said, you know, didn't, probably doesn't seem like a, like a compliment at first. You know, it doesn't seem like a good thing at first. But Jared Salta Lomacia actually had a really good career when you, when you look at it.

And so, you know, I think Cal Raleigh, I agree with you. I think Cal Raleigh could be in that kind of that mold or even better. Yeah, there's still the outside shot that he's Jason Baratech. But I don't believe in, you know, blank of the future because the future is so random and chaotic. And it's like, well, sure, maybe Rale is the guy who's most likely to be the catcher in, you know, what's the future, 2025? maybe he's the guy who's most likely to be that, but maybe you trade Cal Raleigh and you get up with Jose Ramirez. You know what I mean?

Maybe he's in the, maybe you trade for Carson Kelly and Cal Raleigh's in that deal. Like, I don't know. So I don't like the of the future label really for anybody. Sure. Yeah, and especially a catcher because there's a certain point where a guy hits so much, it just doesn't make sense to have him behind the plate. And that could be what happens to Harry Ford.

So, yeah, who's most likely to be the mariner starting catcher? Let's say three years down the road, probably Cal Raleigh, but there's far too many variables to make that a reality. So I just... Catcher of the future might not even be in the organization right now. Pretty good shot, actually. Yeah. Catchers are kind of like mercenaries.

They just kind of bounce around from team to team, and you give them a year or two, and then you try something else. and like the J.T. Real Mutos, they're, they're the outliers. You know, Yasmani Grant-Dal, Salvador Perez, they're outliers. So most teams have, you know, the Austin Romine and, you know, that Tom Murphy, like, those are their guys. So, yeah, it's just incredibly hard to have a plan for anybody to be behind the dish long term. So just be careful with that.

But, yeah, Harry Ford, higher ceiling. Cal Raleigh's at least a backup major league catcher, so that's the higher floor. And yeah, I'm still confident that, you know, I would not be shocked if, you know, 10 years from now, we look at Cal Raleigh and we go, yeah, I mean, he made an all-star team, you know, hit 260, hit 20 home runs a couple years,

just solid average defensive guy, like, yeah, that would not shock me at all. But it's so hard to know with catchers. It's the hardest position to project. So this one's kind of quick. Alex Ludd better wants to know if the Mariners don't acquire another starter. Who is the fifth man in the rotation come opening day? I mean, right now it's probably between Justice Sheffield, Justin Dunn, maybe Matt Brash.

I mean, he's on the 40-man roster. It's not Brandon Williamson or George Kirby. Right. But right now, I think it would probably be Justin Dunn. Yep. Right. I mean, like for me personally and of course, you know, noted Matt Brash Stan, Ty Gonzalez here. It would be Matt Brash for me.

Highest upside. He's already on the 40 man. He's already accruing service time. That seems like a no-brainer to me. Especially because I just like, look, Dunn showed some nice things last year in spurts. but he's coming off of an injury significant one on that and he didn't have any control last year the walks were just astronomical it was it was bad um justice sheffield i mean he's got a long way to go um i like if the if justice sheffield is is the fifth man in the mariner's rotation something that has gone horribly horribly horribly horribly horribly horribly wrong um so yeah i don't know for me for me me my preference would be would be brash but if i had to guess it's probably just a done yeah i would agree just better stuff but it's not going to be either they're they're they're going to trade for

someone they're the whether it's sunny gray whether it's whatever or they're going to go out and sign someone michael pinata whoever they're number like they're they're they're going to add another starter feels i feel pretty confident they're number five the guy that we call their number five is going to actually be a number four or number three because it's going to be probably Flexen or Marco or Gilbert because they're going to add somebody with a little bit more upside than those three. That's just my guess, but I feel pretty good about it.

All right. So we have, I believe, three questions to go and we're going to be answering those in just a moment. But real quick, a reminder of this episode of Lockdown Mariners is brought to you by betonline.net. BetOnline has you covered this season with more props, odds and lines than ever before.

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Daniel Francis who says I haven't heard a lot on Ken Giles. Obviously the Mariners liked him to sign him for two years knowing they would get one. What do you all see as his ceiling floor and what do you expect to see from him in 2022? How's the arm? In terms of how the arm is, I wouldn't know.

Colby wouldn't know. We're not in the organization. So could not tell you on that. I would assume that he's progressing fine. He's going to be ready. for opening day. That's just kind of an assumption, though. But what do I expect from him? I think at the end of the day, I think when it's the end of the season

and we're looking back on Ken Jals's year, I think he's going to be one of their high leverage relievers. I think he's going to be a solid seventh, eighth, ninth inning guy, even, you know, depending on the situation. Plus, they have so many other bullets to fire out of that bullpen as well with Paul Sewell. and Casey Sadler and Diego Castillo and Drew Steckinrider and Andres Munoz and Yohan Ramirez as Eric Swanson, et cetera.

Like this this bullpen is very talented and it's a good spot for Kenjalous to be in after, you know, recovering from his surgery, getting back into the swing of things. There isn't a ton of pressure on him to be the guy of the bullpen. Like they they don't need him to come in and be the, you know, the closer, you know, quote unquote the or you know, their their top high. leveraged guy. They have a bunch of other guys that can fill that role and fill that role nicely. And, and so really what he does in the end is just lengthen a really good bullpen, like an already really good bullpen. That's exciting because you just, you have so much depth there. And they should still add that depth. But, you know, it's a for for Giles, you know, it's a fastball slider combo. When he's on his game, when he's 100%. I mean, he's one of the best relievers in baseball. I don't

think he's going to be that at least not right away. Even with, you know, how far, you know, we've come here with, with athletes recovering from things like ACL tears and UCL tears and, you know, Tommy John's surgery, et cetera, they, they still struggle to to get back in the swing of things right away, right? Like, they're not going to be, you know, Kid Jiles isn't going to come out, I don't think, and be at peak performance on opening day. I mean, really, no one. is even if they're not coming off of an injury. But, you know, I don't think he, I don't know if we're going to see, you know, peak prime Ken Giles at any point this season, but I think he's going to be solid.

And I think that's, that's really all you need him to be is a solid version of himself that, that bolsters this, this bullpen even further and, you know, gives you know, more ways to be, you know, gives Scott Service more ways to be creative with how he uses his bullpen this year. So his addition is really exciting at the end of it. And we'll see what he brings to the table. I don't think we're going to see a top 10 reliever, but I think we're going to see someone that very, very well fits in with Castillo and Steckinrider and Sadler and Seawald, etc. I feel like the ceiling for for Giles is top 10, top 15 reliever, but probably not top five.

And I think, you know, the year after Tommy John, your first year back is always difficult. And usually it's with command more so than it is stuff. So, yeah, there's probably going to be some blowups. There's probably going to be some pickups along the way. But I think we're going to see when he's good. He's going to look really, really good. And when he's off, you know, it might be a couple outing struggle for him. It's something you have to live with.

And it's the risky take. But thankfully for the Mariners, like Ty, said they have built-in fail safes in case Giles just can't get back to his normal self in 2022, which is a possibility. So, you know, if Giles was the only guy, we felt like was a high leverage arm in the Mariners bullpen, it would be really concerning. But right now, you have to kind of think of them as a bonus. And it has the potential to pay off huge.

But it's also why Ty and I have not stopped looking for. more additional bullpen help stopped advocating for going and get and it doesn't have to be like a you know, Rizel Iglesias type. It can just be a, you know, Steve C. Shack or, or who's the guy that you're at, Ryan Tepera? Is that the guy you like, Ty? Yeah. Like you can just be somebody like that, just somebody who can give you a couple of any innings in the middle of the game and just, so you don't have to use Seawald in the fifth unless you want to. So, yeah, but, uh, Mariner's bullpen is still in good shape, and it could get even better if Giles can

return to form in 2022. And there's a decent shot he does. And if there are some blowups, hopefully it doesn't punch himself in the face. You know, whatever works. Yeah, I mean, you know, as long as he's punching himself.

That's true. That's true. And not a wall. Yeah. If you're a pitcher, don't punch a wall or a door or anything that could. You're going to lose. Yeah. All right. wants to hear our thoughts on Mariners prospect, Milcar Perez.

Will he make the top 30 in the Mariners system by the end of the year? He's already well in there for us. I think Colby and I, we both have him in our top 15 close to our top 10. And a lot of other outlets do as well for the Mariners. So that's, yeah,

that's not even a question. He wants to know if we have a player comp on him and what does he have to do to become an elite prospect? Well, there aren't many elite prospects in the game in general on a per year basis and and i don't think that milcar prez it really has a a path to getting there but he is a good prospect um a really interesting one uh that i think is going to uh to catch some attention this year uh especially now that uh now that he

stateside so um colby you you have any player comps or anything that you want to share on on millcar Yeah, real fast to answer the question about can he be an elite prospect? Probably not. But if he were to ever get there, it would be because the endgame power really explodes. And he also probably got at least half a grade, if not a full grade, better at third base defensively, which, again, is still possible because he's only 20 years old. But there's not a lot of projected growth left in him. either and he has a rocket for an arm.

So if he just has average range at third base, he's going to be fine there. But those are the things that have to happen for him to get there. Based on where he stands right now, he's kind of a, you know, not a slap hitter. I don't want to say that.

He's kind of a slasher, though. You know, his power is going to come in the form of doubles, but he's going to make a lot of contact. He's not going to strike out. He's probably going to be athletic enough and good enough to move around and play a couple positions, but probably not be,

you know, above average at any of them, if that makes sense. His best shot to do that might be in right field. But yeah, he kind of reminds me of Minnesota Twins infielder, Luis Surrise, who I'm a big fan of. Ty does not like him for some reason. I do. I do like him.

This is wrong. You poopoed his abilities quite a bit. He's propaganda. Yeah, I wouldn't say that. But yeah, I mean, the guy, just, you don't know who Luisarizes. He's a career 313. Sorry, he's a career 313, 374, 403 hitter, 113 WRC plus. So he's an average guy actually takes a good amount of walks, 9% walk rate in his career, 9.1% K rate.

He's a contact guy, not a lot of home run power, but I'll hit some doubles, lots of singles, gets on base. I think that's who Milcar Perez can be. And if he is, you know, the Mariners have a very underrated prospect in their system. So, yeah, that's what I would expect from Milcar. If he takes a big jump and he starts hitting 20 home runs in high A ball this year, I mean, then he's on high alert to move up into the top, you know, top seven or eight in a midseason re-rank. But I would just expect him to continue to hit line drives. and if that's all he does, then that's fine

because he hits so many line drives that he probably would hit for a high average if he continues to progress. Yeah, no, the hood tool is something to behold. I'd give it a 60. That's legit. Yeah, that's a legit

hit tool that he has there. So I think that alone is going to carry him at least into a big group. To the high miners. Yeah. We'll see if he actually, you know, can sustain that at the major league level. But I think he's at least. get there. It might end up

being a 70 hit tool. Yeah. Which is, you know, in layman's terms, that's consistent 300 hitter. And then if you add some power onto that, I mean, yeah, that's really interesting. I don't know if that still gets him to elite prospect level, because again, like you said, like he's got to get better defensively.

He's got the arm for it, but he's still, you know, everything else that goes into that. And depending on where else he can play, I mean, maybe like in a corner outfield spot, but um yes that's still a pretty huge question mark on milcar but uh we'll see he's really interesting and um he's one of the few he's one of the mini guys actually that i'm i'm really excited to uh to see play this year so um one one of the reasons i like i i would give milcar a decent shot to to improve in

the power department it is pretty good at speed um so it just comes down to how much average are you willing to trade for power? Because I think that is the trade that Milkar would have to make. But we'll see. He's very young. He's only got you know, six games at the A ball level.

So he's probably starting the year in Modesto and we'll see how he does. All right. So fun question to wrap things up and we'll keep this short and sweet. This comes from Cody Anderson at code underscore mode. 15. Who asks, you were in the majors what would your walk-up song be uh for me um i mean if you've listened to the show

enough or you've listened to our other shows you know i'm a huge kick cutty stand so it's got to be something from cutty i'll go revove which is not my favorite cutty song but it's got that like war cry type of uh chorus in it that you know i i'd feel pretty hype going up to the plate i feel like i was ready to crank a dinger or two so uh that's that's my answer Colby? Yeah, for me, it's, this is America. This is America. Yeah.

You guys can probably figure out which part I would use for a walk-up song. Or rather the parts that he wouldn't use. Yes, that's more, that'd be more important phraseology or whatever you want to call it there. But you got to remember, walk-up songs are like 15 seconds max. So you can't just pick a whole song. You have to pick like a specific section of a. song. So it's different than like bullpen entrance music, which for me

would probably be shoot to thrill by ACDC. Nice. Nice. Yeah, this is America's great great choice as well. That that beat is nasty. So yeah, walking up to that, that's going to strike some fear in people. So

that's going to do it for our show today. Thank you again for joining us here on Locked on. Mariters. For Colby Pat node, I'm Tyne Gonzalez. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L-O-U-U-N-S-Rerner. You can follow me at Dan Gonzalez, Z-A-N-E, G-N-Z-L-Z, and Colby at C-Pat 11. That's C-P-A-T-1-1. You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode.

And thank you again for making us your first listen of the day, just like you do here every day. Now, make your second list of the day, Lockdown Betts, your daily one-stop shop for all your gambling gambling needs. Lockdown bets hosted by your boy Q with expert analysis and insolice. from Lee Sterling and just like us, their show is free and available wherever you get your podcast. So have yourself a beautiful baseball

day and we will see you on Friday for FanFix Friday. Be sure to submit your trade proposals for the Mariners to us at Lockdown Mariners and our email at Lockdown Mariners at gmail.com. We will see you then. Peace.