Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Mailbag: Are the Mariners Still a Playoff-Caliber Team?

Episode Date: June 5, 2023

It's Mailbag Monday! On the show, Colby and Ty answer Mariners fans' most burning questions following a brutal showing against the Rangers, including if the two hosts still view Seattle as a playoff-caliber team, if Bryce Miller has been tipping his pitches, what's led to the team's widespread strikeout issues, which roster moves could be on the way, and more.Help us out by filling out our survey!Be sure to follow or subscribe to Locked On Mariners wherever you prefer your podcasts! For questions and other inquiries, email: [e-mail] the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @danegnzlz | @CPat11BetterHelpThis episode is sponsored by BetterHelp. BetterHelp connects you with a licensed therapist who can take you on that journey of self-discovery from wherever you are. Visit BetterHelp.com/lockedonmlb today to get 10% off your first month.eBay MotorsFor parts that fit, head to eBay Motors and look for the green check. Stay in the game with eBay Guaranteed Fit. eBay Motors dot com. Let’s ride. eBay Guaranteed Fit only available to US customers. Eligible items only. Exclusions apply. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

After a deflating series down in Arlington, are the Mariners still a playoff team in our eyes? We'll answer that and more coming up here on the Locked on Mariner's podcast. Colby, hit it. You are Locked on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day. Oh, Hoy, Sailors. It is Monday, June 5th, 2023.

This is Tadang Gazzalus and Colby Patnaud for the Lockdown Mariners podcast brought to you by Better Help. Better Help connects you with a licensed therapist who can take you on. that journey of self-discovery from wherever you are. Visit betterhelp.com slash locked on MLB today to get 10% off your first month. Thank you so much for making us your first listen, subscribe, like, and turn on alerts if you're watching on YouTube, or subscribe and leave a five-star review on your preferred podcast platform

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And this episode is, of course, Milbag Monday, the show where we answer your Mariners questions. Let's just get right into them. Starting with Marley, who asked, still think this is a playoff team, the Mariners that is. Colby, you start. You think this is a playoff team? Sure. I think they can be. You know, they interplay today, six games out of a playoff spot.

there's a hundred three to go. Do I think they can make up those six games in the next hundred? Yeah. If I thought that three days ago, why wouldn't I think that now? Because they had a rough weekend. So I got curb stomped by the rangers, to be fair. They did. But also, I don't care because there's no three game stretch, short of a three game stretch that literally

eliminate you. That is going to have me feeling any worse. about the team's ability to make the playoffs than I did three days ago, especially not on June 5th. So no, I'm not worried. Yes, I still think they can make the playoffs. But they are at the point now where it's kind of now or never. They have about a month before the All-Star break, 30 games. I think they got to win 17, 18 of these games.

So I think just kind of hovering around 500, it's going to be real tough, especially with how good the rest of the American League is right now. Teams might fall back to you a little bit. But ultimately, I think you're going to have to have another good stretch. And I'm confident they can do it because they literally just did it. They were 17 and 11 in the month of May. Can they do that again in June? Sure. I mean, you know, they're already 0 and 3 or 1 in 1 and 3.

1 and 4, whatever they are. So yeah, they're going to have to, you know, obviously do a lot better over the next few weeks. But yeah, they literally just went on a stretch that we, that I'm describing that you need by the All Star break. They have to do it again. Can they do it? Yeah, will they do it? I guess we'll find out. But the next month is critical because it's going to kind of determine what type of buyers you're going to be at the deadline.

I think the Mariners are going to buy regardless. But I think if they're still hovering around 500 and they're like six, seven games out of the wild card during the All Star break, you could probably kiss rentals goodbye, which, you know, Jerry's always going to prefer the player with club control. But still, I think at that point it doesn't make a lot of sense to trade first. guy who's going to be here for three months and leave. So I think that's why the next month is critical, but can they still make the playoffs? Yeah, absolutely. Yeah, they're on three. I just double-checked.

They can't post a sub-500 month of June, because like you said, that's going to completely alter how they approach the rest of this year, the next month, the, you know, trade deadline, all that. Now, the schedule is lining up a little bit, going up, against a Padres team, which has been equally, if not more disappointing as the Mariners have been this year so far. The angels after that who've fallen back to the pack, surprise. Then the Marlins, the White Sox, there's some wins there. Go on the road to face the Yankees and the Orioles.

That's going to be really tough. But then you got the Nationals. And then you wrap things up with a game against the race to end the month. Again, there's some wins to be had there. There's a very clear path to have it another, you know, six games above 500 type of month, like you did this past month. So, yeah, I think this is still a playoff team, especially because, again, and I know, you know, it's not early anymore, right? So we can't just do that whole cop out. But a lot of these guys are just performing at their, like, 10th percentile right now.

Right. Teo has been a perennial 120, 130 WRC plus guy for like the last four years and now he's just this. You're telling me that he's just this? I mean, maybe he is, but that is quite the falloff. You're telling me that AJ Pollock after posting a 161 WRC plus against lefties last year has fallen off this much to the point where he's got a 12 WRC plus against lefties. again we're at the point in the season where you know some of these things are just that's the way things are for the whole year right that's just how it's going to be you know maybe colton long is just wash now

but I feel like some of these things are going to regress back to the mean or at least a little bit closer back to the mean where you should be able to win some ball games that you know these last couple of months you weren't capable of winning now on top of that the pitching staff which you know was the best in baseball for like the first two months has kind of regressed as well they've there's obviously been a couple blow-up starts here they've just overall haven't been as good as they've been in you know the last couple of months hopefully that gets squared away a little bit here because i mean look the offense has been bad but you can't win any games if you're giving up 10 runs 16 runs 12 runs etc so pitching also has has to level out here, but there's still reason to be helpful here that, you know, O'Leo can turn it around. I mean, we've started to see signs of that, obviously.

You know, Ty France can start turning around here. Teo can start turning around. Gino can start turning around. And if they can even just be like 15% better than they are right now to be able to win some ball games. So I know it's not great. I know it's not a great selling point, but I still think that there is a really good team at the core of this.

roster. I just, I don't know if I'll ever see that come to fruition, but I hope so. Okay, Mark wants to know, after 59 games last year, they were 27 and 32, and in 2021, they were 29 and 30, same record as this year. And everyone was freaking out and they were bad for at least two more weeks before they ride at the ship. Why can't this team do the same exact thing? I feel like 91 to 93 wins is still reachable. First, Mark, I just want to thank you for being a breath of fresh air. and for not being super down to the dumps and actually looking at this in a positive light. Because, I mean, you know, and I don't blame you guys entirely here, but there's a lot of negativity following the weekend.

There was a lot of negativity in the replies to our tweet looking for questions for the show. Yeah, I mean, look, I don't know if they have a 14-game win streak in them. It would be awesome if they went on a 14-game win streak, both for them. They don't need it. And for our numbers as well, but they don't need it. I mean, going 18, you know, winning 18 of 22 accomplishes the exact same thing. You know, look, they, what was that one streak that they just went on recently? What was their actual record over there?

They won 7 of 10. So they went 7 and 3 before the Yankees came to town. And in the month of May, they finished 17 and 11. So there you go. I mean, if they can just do that, right? Again, look, I know a lot of, this anxiety probably comes from people who think like all the AL East teams are going to win anywhere from 90 to 105 wins. Some of these teams are going to fall back to the pack. It's just

going to happen. We've already seen that a little bit with Blue Jays. We've seen that with the Red Sox, hell, even in the AL-WFs, we've seen that with the Angels. So some of these teams are going to, you know, regress back to the mean. And I don't like, I still think that it's going to take 89 to 92 wins to get that final wild card. The Mariners are more than capable of doing that. They just need to have a couple good more, you know, a couple more good months and,

you know, they should be right back on track. So, yeah, I think 91 to 93 wins is still feasible. They just have to, they have to play better. Yeah,

you know, it seems insurmountable, but if they go 17 and 11, I don't know how many games they have each month, but if they win at that pace for the next two months, going up into the, the trade deadline. They're going to be 10, 12 games over 500 and on a roll at that point, it's totally possible.

We just saw this team do it. They did it last year. They did it the year before. Yeah, and this team, honestly, is more talented than either of the last two teams that went on a similar run. So, yeah, it's going to come down to can Teosker, can Geno? Can they get anywhere close to back to where they were, you know, before this year? Can Julio continue to kind of, you know, slowly build his way back?

up to what he was last year. Can Jared Kelnick cut the strikeouts and be, you know, closer to April Kellnick than, than May Kelnick? By the way, make it so that he doesn't have to be any better than May, please, but it's a different topic. You know, can these guys do that? Because you're getting enough from JP. Tai France is another guy who also needs to step up a little bit. Had a nice series in Texas, but man, that's a whole lot of hits that really didn't mean much for Thai France. Not a lot of big hits. And, you know, key situations, strikeout bases loaded. But, yeah, France is a guy who needs to step up too.

But you're getting enough from JP. You're getting enough from Kelnick overall. You're getting enough from Cal Raleigh. You're getting enough from most of your role players. Caviaro is doing his job, although he is sliding a little bit too, which, again, not surprising. So, yeah, the guys who you thought, like the four guys who you thought were going to be your best bats this year, they just have to hit. They have to play better. It's really that simple.

if they do that over the next month, then the Mariners are going to be in really good shape. This one comes from Jay Mars. He wants to know realistically, what are the Mariners' chances of making the postseason? 50-50. Good one. They're either going to make it or they're not.

Those are the chances. They're 50-50. Good one. Fangraphs puts them at like 15.4% right now as of today. Yeah, I'd say that sounds about right. 15, 20%, maybe. 25 if you want to be super positive about it. Look, they have a they have an uphill climb. Like there's no way around that. They've dug themselves into a pretty steep hole here.

And, you know, it's like again, a lot of games left, 103 games just to make up like a six game. Let me tell you a story. Yes. About the 1995 Seattle Mariters. Oh, get out of here. Yeah. Look, they got a ways to go here. but there's still a really good shot.

And again, if they just, if a couple of these guys get hot, offensively speaking, and pitching staff gets back on track here, I'm not asking for, that really isn't asking for much. Like, really in the grand scheme of things,

I'm not asking them to all of a sudden hit, you know, everyone hits their hundred percent all here. I'm just saying, be 15% better than you are right now. And you should be in a really good spot to at least contend for the wild card. So, yeah.

All right, we got a few more questions coming up here in just a moment. But first, a reminder, this episode of the Lockdown Marries podcast is brought to you by eBay Motors. For your championship team, it's all about making sure every player is a perfect fit. That's the same when it comes to your vehicle. Every part needs to fit just right. So the next time you need parts and accessories, just head on over to eBay Motors. With eBay guaranteed fit, you can be sure every part you need fits right the first time around. Just add your ride to my garage and look for the green check to know the part will fit or your money back.

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Mariners, of course, off today before they get set for a two-game series with the Padres starting tomorrow. You can catch all the action on the mayor's hometown broadcasts with Series XM via the SXM app. It is Mailbag Monday, and we're going to get back into these questions here from Mariners fans. Cody here wants to know. DiPoto has always preached controlling the zone, but as of now, they rank fourth in most strikeouts and have four hitters in the top 10. Is there anything they can do to fix this issue ASAP? Are they going to need to really revamp the roster this winner? For the first part of the question, I'm not really equipped to answer that.

I don't know if you are, Colby, because we're not there, right? We don't know what is really contributing to these issues. If this is actually, you know, a game plan that was set by this organization preseason in terms of, you know, this is what we want our hitters to focus on. and this is how we want our hitters to approach these at-bats, or if the hitters are just not necessarily going rogue, but just doing their own thing. Because if that's the case, then this falls on them,

and they need to perform better, and they need to change their game plan at the plate. I would assume that it's a bit of both. But again, as far as solutions go, I have no clue, because I don't know what exactly is going on there in the first place, what the actual approaches are that's leading to this. All I can say is, you know, stop swinging at pitches, you know, six inches off the plate,

eight inches off of the plate, 10 inches off the plate, like stop doing that, you know, take more pitches, try to work walks, especially you, Teoscar Hernandez, I'm looking at you, you know, I pounded the table for you all off-season. As for the second part of this, I mean, you and I have spoken privately

about how we're going to approach our off-season plan this winter when we get to that point that, you know, we're going to be focusing on guys that make contact, that better, you know, that are better suited offensively for T-Mobile part, that are not just, you know, boom or busts, that we're not necessarily going to just look for, who's the star player that we really think raises the ceiling of this team.

You need to raise the floor again. We need to get back to the basics, right? That's what we named our plan a couple of years ago when we did the off-season plan was raise the floor. I think that's kind of what we need to do again, is the marriage just needs some probability. They really do offensively. Yeah.

You know, it's kind of interesting. The fact that so many players have hit kind of, rock bottom in their career in terms of their career numbers and yet the team is still 500 so the floor is actually not too bad um because i i still think that at worst this team's going to win you know 85 games give or take so but yeah no that i mean right now there's just look that here's the deal with raw strikeouts right they don't matter by themselves you could strike out a ton and still create a ton of runs look at them done right I mean he did it for years borderline Hall of Famer Adam done it's not it's not that

a Eugenio Sor is a striking out a ton it's that he's striking out a ton and he's not hitting for any power yeah it's not that Teosca Hernandez is striking out a ton it's that Teoscar Hernandez is striking out a ton and he's not getting on base he's not walking yep if you run 30% strikeout rates like if Kelnick has the exact same slash line at the end of the year that he does today nobody's going to care about is his strikeout right we're going to look at and say like, hey, that might be an area he can improve, and that's how he can take the next step. So, yeah, it's not just about strikeouts.

It's the strikeouts plus what the strikeouts mean. Because if you're going to strike out a lot, you better hit for power or you better get on base a lot. And right now, Gino is not doing either. Right now, Teo, power's okay, but it's still below his norm. And he's not walking at all. Kelnick has really seen his power drop since April.

Andy's striking out a lot more. So yeah, you have to, you have to, you can strike out. You can have a team that has a few guys who strike out quite a bit, but they have to hit for power or they have to have well above average on base percentages. And right now, none of those are the case for any of these mariners who are struggling with strikeouts, except for Kalanick, but that's because he got off to such a hot start in April. And he's slowly kind of falling back down. So, yeah, it's not just the strikeouts that are concerning.

It's, it's, you know, a Eugenio Suarez striking out as much as he is. And he is, and when he is getting on base, it's each year out. Like, we're just a slap single the other way. There's no power there. Each year I wasn't striking out 200 times a year. So that's the problem. If you're going to be a slap hitter like Gino is right now, you can't strike out as much as he is. If you're going to hit 35 home runs, 30, 35 home runs, you wouldn't care.

If Gino had, you know, 12 home runs right now, you wouldn't care about his strikeouts. But he doesn't. you do. This one comes from Jace. Is Bryce Miller tip in his pitches? I saw someone claim this and showed his arm angle, but it didn't look like a significant difference to me. What are your thoughts? Colby, you noticed anything

yesterday? Not not no, I'm not really equipped to you know, watch the pitcher at full speed and be able to pick up the minute differences.

If somebody did, you know, did go back and do that and they looked at every pitch at, you know, half speed and they charted every pitch and they looked at, you know, arm angles or delivery, like time to the plate or stuff like that, then good for them. And it's probably something that the mayor should be considering because he has gotten roughed up the last two times out and he hasn't even been competitive, which is such a huge difference from where he was in his first four or five starts. So, yeah, it's definitely possible. And, you know, it's to answer Jason's question,

you know, like, you may not notice anything, but I guarantee you that if he is, then the front office is a major league baseball. The advanced scouts, the analytics people, the guys who work in the video room, they look at every single pitch,

their opponent will throw multiple times. They'll watch it at, you know, 10% speed. They'll chart the arm path. They'll chart the pitch. They'll chart the location. And it's even a little bit different. They will know about it.

You can just write that down. they're they're way smarter than us they spend way more time looking at looking at this stuff so if they are in fact um you know if bryce is in fact like lowering his arm slot a little bit to get to the slider or whatever they are going to notice it will be noticed and until he fixes that it's going to get it's going to get exploited so yeah i think it's i think it's possible that he's tipping his pitches and that's something that the mariners need to look at too the the thing that i've really noticed with him Yeah, maybe the issue just boils down to him tipping his pitches, but I don't think that it's as simple as that because the last couple of starts,

his fastball command hasn't been great, especially yesterday. You know, quite a few glove side misses, catching a lot of play with the pitch as well. Like, Bryce Miller needs really good to great fastball command in order to, you know, especially when his secondaries are lacking. if he's going to rely heavily on the fastball where he's throwing it 50, 60, 70 times an outing, he needs great fastball command. And he pretty much more or less had that through his first few starts. But the last couple starts, he just, it hasn't been there.

And we've seen the result of that. So, yeah, maybe it's a tipping pitchy, pitches issue. But I also think that it's a command issue as well here. All right, we got a few more questions coming up in just a moment. But first, a reminder of this episode of the Lockdown Mariners podcast is once again brought to you by BetterHelp. Getting to know yourself can be a lifelong process, especially because we're always growing and changing. Therapy is all about deepening your self-awareness and understanding because sometimes we don't know what we want or why we react the way we do until we talk through things. It seems kind of relevant or today following that weekend series.

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That's BetterHelp, HELP.com slash Lockdown MLB. And you're listening to the Lockdown Marreras podcast. Thank you again for making us your first listen here on Mailbag Monday. Again, you can catch the Marys of the Padre starting tomorrow on the Marrish hometown broadcast with Sirius XM via the SXM app. Let's get back into these questions. Hunter, we all obviously know that we need a bat and it's getting to the point of really needing to make some sort of move.

What do you guys realistically think is done within the next couple of weeks? Because Dimo, besides Dimo and Munoz, which will hopefully help a little. Thanks, guys. All right. So I'm glad you asked this because there's someone that I particularly want to talk about. He was DFA this morning by the Boston Red Sox. That's Rymel Tapia. Now, that isn't very sexy if you're familiar with Rimal Tapia.

I'm pretty sure that he hasn't posted WRC Plus over 100 ever in his, what, seven, eight year career now at this point. Former Rockies and Blue Jay's outfielder, of course, he spent the first couple of months of this season with the Red Sox. And it seems that he was DFAed mostly because of his defense, which

if you're playing defense in the, or if you're playing in the outfield in Boston, that shouldn't be as much of an issue. At least if you're playing in left field with the green monster out there. So that's quite the accomplishment for Tapia if he's been bad out in left field. But he's, he's been really good offensively speaking and and the mariners right now they just need a bat it doesn't really matter because i mean they can give the they can give tapia or whoever as many

a bats as they want in the dh spot uh and they can look even if he's been bad they can live with him playing out in the outfield once a week or twice a week whatever they for if you want to sacrifice that you know the defense for the added offense i think you can live with that especially at this point where runs are so so few and far between for them right now. TAPIA this year, I got to pull the numbers back up here, but Tappia has been really good against right-handed pitching. And again, what are the mirrors need right now? They need a lefty who can hit right-handed pitching. He's slashing 309, 373-441. That's a 157 WRC plus against Ritees. He's also walking 9.3% of the time and striking out at just a 19.6% clip so far this

year. Now that's less than 100 played appearances, but beggars can't be choosers on June 5th. And for what you need right now, Tapia is pretty much as perfect of a fit as you can find, as you can hope to find on June 5th. So for me, they absolutely need to go out and try to add this guy. Just take a shot on him. If it doesn't work, whatever. You're going to have to trade for him, because he's likely not making it to waivers, to you through waivers. So you're going to have to make a trade with the Red Sox. It's not going to cost you really anything, really, like anything that's going to bother you that much.

You just need to take the shot here in my humble opinion. Yeah. You know, like it doesn't strike out, it's drawing walks this year. Pretty safe bet to, you know, hit 260, 270. Just not a lot of power there, but that's fine. you have power. You need a little bit of what Tapia can bring to you. It's honestly a very similar profile as to when they acquired Denard Span.

And we remember how well the span deal worked. It really kept the Mariners afloat while they waited for Cano to get back from his suspension. So, yeah, I think Tapia carries some of that to Nard Span. Not a ton of power, but he's going to hit for some average. It's been around the block. defense is not so awful that you can't trust them out there a couple times a week. And yeah, and they're still upside because like you said, he's crushed right-handed pitching this year.

So, yeah, again, he's not better than Haggerty. He's better than right now. He's better than Wong. He's better than Paulic. He's better than Mike Ford. And he's going to cost you very little in trade. So, yeah, I think he's kind of an obvious guy to go get right. right now and just kind of help help you get to the deadline, help you get to the deadline

to be in a position where, sorry, where maybe adding more rentals makes sense. Right. Yeah. So, you know, look, you're not going to be able to add anyone of this kind of caliber right now, probably. Like, you know, like maybe there's a Carlos Santana out there, but it doesn't seem like it, because I think if there was, the mayors would have probably already acquired him. so tapia is probably your best shot to get that guy that can be

a little bit of a spark plug for you and just give you something that you sorely lack right now offensively. It's someone who puts the ball and plays on base from the left side of the plate. All right. Last question of the day. Here comes from Ian. With how the season is going, would a deadline similar to 2021 be a reasonable expectation?

And who on an expiring contract might they be hesitant to move? So again, 2021 deadline was Abraham Toro and Joe Smith for Raphael Montero and Kendall Graeman. And then, of course, J.T. Choir Gaw and Austin Shetton for Diego Castillo. So no is I think they're going to go a bit bigger than that. I think they're if they're in a position where they're both selling and buying like Trevor Gott is probably getting traded. maybe Paul Seawald if you get your socks blown off with an offer there. Teo probably because again I think you write that down in permanent marker. He's not going to be a part of this ball club next year.

So if you can get something for him that is worth it to forego having a money roster for the final couple of months of the season while you try and see if you can make the playoffs, then you do that. Maybe Tom Murphy. I don't know. But yeah, I think you're going to. I think really they're going to try to go get a controllable bat and then maybe a couple of relievers, you know, take some shots on some guys, especially if they trade Gott or spoiled or whatever. Yeah.

The only guy on an expiring contract that I think they might be a little hesitant to move is Tom Murphy. If somebody wants Murphy to be their primary everyday catcher and they're willing to pay for it, fine. But you might want to keep Murphy around for the rest of this year, not run Cal Raleigh into the ground. especially if you don't think you're going to make the playoffs. There's no reason to have Cal out there six, seven times a week at that point. So I think, you know, Murph is probably the only guy who's on an expiring contract that maybe they hold on to. And yet, I think regardless of how far out of it they are,

I think they're going to be pretty aggressive on the bats, in particular the bats that have multiple years of club control. that's going to do it for us here on the locked on mariner's podcast thank you so much for making us your first listen today for colby pat note i'm tiding gzalas be sure to give us a follow on twitter at l o underscore mariners you can follow me at dain gnzzz that's danae g nz lz and colby at c pat 11 that's cvat 1-1 follow us on instagram and ticot as well over at locked on mariners that's one word locked on mariners you can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode and thank you again for making us your first listen we'll be off tomorrow so catch us again on Wednesday after the Mariners of the Padres game, which again, you can catch that game and tomorrow's game on the mayor's hometown broadcast with Series XM via the SXM app. Until we see you next time,

have yourself a beautiful baseball day. Peace.