Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Mailbag: Could Meddling Ownership Lead to Jerry Dipoto's Resignation From the Mariners?

Episode Date: January 1, 2024

It's the first Mailbag Monday of 2024! Ty and Colby answer your Mariners questions, including why the team chose Mitch Garver over Jorge Soler and other DH options, if Seattle can maintain a sustainable, competitive product in spite of its payroll issues, and if those payroll issues and the apparent flip-flopping of ownership could eventually lead Jerry Dipoto to resign from his position as president of baseball operations.Follow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @TyDaneGonzalez | @CPat11Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!FanDuelScore early this NFL season with FanDuel, America’s Number One Sportsbook! Right now, NEW customers get ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY DOLLARS in BONUS BETS with any winning FIVE DOLLAR MONEYLINE BET! That’s A HUNDRED AND FIFTY BUCKS – if your team wins! Visit FanDuel.com/LOCKEDON to get started.FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Let's kick off the new year by diving into our mailbag. We're answering some of your Mariners questions coming up here on the first Locked-on Mariners of 2024. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast, part of the Locked-on podcast network, your team every day. Oh, Hoy, sailors.

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social accounts, is in the description of this episode. This is Mailbag Monday, the show where we answer your Mariners questions. Let's get into them. We're going to start here with an anonymous question with everyone drooling over Jorge Solair. What do you think are the key factors of why

the Mariners have not signed him? Strikeout rate? Clubhouse issues? Cold bat and colder climates? Money. Soler holding out? None of the above. I think they just got a better deal on Mitch Garver, or what they feel is a better deal on Garver. Colby, you feel any differently?

No. I think they probably view Salar and Garver as both pretty much DH-only's. And so what it comes down to is, is, you know, which one do we like more and at what price? I think there's a pretty good chance. So Laer is going to get a third guaranteed year. And maybe that's something that's the, didn't want to do. I also think there's a pretty good chance that he's going to get more than

12 million AAV. So if you're the Mariners and you have these two guys as being roughly equal offensively, and honestly, there's a lot more evidence to suggest that Garber is just the better all-around hitter. But if you think they're pretty close offensively and one of them's willing to give you a deal, quote unquote, and the other one's not, and you're the Mariners with your payroll restrictions being enforced on you, then I think it makes sense to, to, to prioritize Garber in that case. Now, it doesn't necessarily mean that they won't also go sign Saler. I'd say it's highly unlikely, but, you know, we don't know for sure that they're not

still interested in Jorge Saler. I think this was just about, hey, Garber, we got to a number and a structure with Garber that we like. Let's just get that done right now and then we'll adjust if we need to. I think it's just more about, you know, the Mariners got a deal that they like with Garber. They didn't want to miss out on it. They knew that they needed to upgrade the lineup.

And, you know, bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. And if Saler is holding out strong for a two, that was wrong, whatever. But, you know, if Saler's holding out for a guaranteed third year or maybe even a guaranteed fourth year, or he wants $16, $17 million a year, you know, Garber is the guy to go get. if you can get them for the contract, Seattle did. And it'll be interesting to see what the actual contract is. We still don't know. But there's a there's a mutual option for a third year. I assume that part of the $24 million that's guaranteed is a buyout for that year,

which lowers the hit in both, well, in year once, and it's only a two-year deal. So maybe Saler wasn't willing to do that. There are a lot of factors that play here. I don't think really any of them are concerns about a strikeouts or, cold weather. I really don't think that's a issue. Not from the mariner's side of things. No, not at all. To simplify what you're saying even more so, I mean, even if the mariners look at both of these guys in a vacuum and say, you know, we think Soler's a little bit better, are the pros of Solair insignificant enough where Garver at $12 million

is worth more to the Mariners than Solair at like 16 a year? Right. I mean, at that point, it's at that point it's would you rather have garber and whatever you get for the extra four million bucks or whatever or so lair right right so and we'll see what number saler comes in at but no i i think it's just about seattle got a good deal with garver and they just they took it yeah next question here from mariners to the moon is the front office goal of creating a sustainably competitive team over a decade span, even possible with the recent restricted payrolls, not to mention the RSN problems going forward. If not, how do you see Jerry in the front office shifting their tactics to try and make it achievable? I mean, you've got to draft develop and trade your ass off, right?

And I think a big key to this is replenishing the next wave of pitching and lining that up pretty soon here, sooner rather than later, because you know, you might get to a point here in the next few, years where you got to think about trading Logan Gilbert because of money issues. Like Teddy McGraw and Cole Phillips and we'll see what Michael Morales is. We'll see what Darren Bowen is. We'll see if Walter Ford is anything. But that's that's really it right now. What do you think, Colby? I would say, first thing, they do need to, you know, start replenishing the pitching depth. They need to take more college arms in the next draft. I know it's not a very good draft class.

I don't know if that applies to just the offensive players, but that's my early indication is that it's a pretty poor draft for bats. Second, the good news is that the Mariners have the next wave of offensive players is relatively close. In the big leagues, they should be here within, you know, some of them will debut this year. Most or a lot of them will debut next year. So that's a good sign. But also, I think we need to just put. pump the brakes a little bit here. We don't know for sure what the finances are going to look

like next year or the year after. So we don't know if this is a, I don't want to say a one-off, but we don't know if this is like something that's a short-term kind of problem or if this is something that's going to extend long-term. We don't know what the issue is with the RSN. We know what the issue is, but we don't know what the solution is. So it's a little tough for me to sit here and be like, well, obviously for the next decade, the Mariners are going to run a $150 million payroll. I don't know. So, I mean,

I mean, payroll has risen since the, the rebuild, right? They have brought it slowly but surely back up closer to where it was pre-rebuild, but it still hasn't gotten to that point, obviously.

But we've seen now like three times, at least over the last three or four years, Jerry and Justin thinking that they would have, you know, X amount of months. money and then they end up getting why and then we don't know why you know right but uh clearly like plans have changed on the fly over the last couple of off seasons and i i just don't really have any faith in that changing where you know until i see it right until i see john john stanton

has to earn the benefit of the doubt here he doesn't get that at all so absolutely but it's also entirely possible that this is a one year thing and they have the RSN figured out next year and Major League Baseball steps in or something like they're doing with other teams. We don't know. We don't know the long-term impact of Yeah, but once the RSN is figured

out, like, what's the next excuse? What's the next excuse going to be? I get it. I get it. But we do not know for a fact that the Mariners' payroll is going to be what it is now for the next 10 years. And if it is, is it sustainable? Can you win

54% of your games over a decade without raising payroll. You can. Without raising it significantly, you can. It's just a really tough window to hit. And yeah, it means that you're going to have to trade guys when they start getting expensive. Kind of like what the raise do, which nobody's as good at it as the raise are. And I really don't want to see if Jerry DePoto and Justin Hollander are. So, yeah, you can still sustain a good window with, you know, payroll staying relatively stagnant.

but no, you shouldn't try. And we'll see if the, if the ownership group ever decides they want to step up. But yeah, yeah, it just, you got to start off. I think Jerry and Justin in a way, they're going to have to start operating a lot like Tampa or try. And that's, that's not usually a formula for success. But all right, we got some more questions of yours coming up in just a moment.

But first, a reminder, this episode of the Lockdown, Aaron's podcast, is brought to you by Fandul. Sailors, the NFL regular season is wrapping up, but there's still time to get in on the action with Fandul, America's number one sportsbook. Right now, new customers can get $150 in bonus bets, guaranteed when you place a $5 bet. That's $150 bucks in bonus bets, win or lose. And the app is so easy to use, and there's so many different ways to bet, like live, same game parlayes. You can also find bets in the new Explorer tab and make a parlay in the parley hub.

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So visit Fanduel.com slash locked on. That's L-O-C-D-O-N. Again, that's Fanduel.com slash locked-on to make your first bet a layup. Fandul, official partner of the NFL. And you're listening to the Lockdown Mariners podcast. Thank you again for making us your first listening. As a reminder, Lockdown has launched the first ever national sports 24-7 streaming channel on YouTube.

Lockdown Sports Today is here for you, 24-7 covering the top sports stories of the day with the local experts of Lockdown, plus our national shows covering every league. Go to Lockdown Sports Today on YouTube and subscribe to the first ever national sports 24-7 streaming channel, part of the Lockdown podcast network. work your team every day. And before we get back into your questions, as some of you know, because you've already made use of it, we now have a Google Doc where you can submit questions. That's mostly for those of you that are not on Twitter. Don't ask us questions over there. Just a couple of notes, and I figured that we were going to have to hammer out some things.

So two things that I've noticed, no one really signed off their name on any of these questions. You've got to sign your name off. Like, we don't see your name. like we don't see your email or anything like that if you submit a question. So if you want your name actually read along with your question, you need to sign that off in the actual question submission. And then secondly, some of you submitted fan fiction Friday trades. That's not the place to submit fan fiction Friday trades.

We're going to have a separate Google Doc for fan fiction Friday trades, and we'll post that in the description of our episodes that come out on Wednesday when we're looking for Friday trade ideas. So yeah, just it makes things a lot easier on us to kind of sift through all the questions and all that if we don't have to go through a bunch of trade ideas and a bunch of things that are not related to mailbag Monday, essentially. So yeah, just keep that in mind. All right, let's get back into these questions. Teddy wants to know is the current Mariners situation with funding and ownership interference similar enough to the Anaheim situation that Jerry may seriously be looking at leaving if changes aren't. made in regards to funding.

So it's pretty different in terms of the like the actual situations or the circumstances. In Anaheim, the reason that Jerry left was he was basically just figurehead. Like he wasn't actually like, he wasn't allowed to do anything unless Sosha and

Moreno approved of it. And he was just kind of tired of that, right? He wasn't like he was the GM, but he wasn't allowed to be the GM basically. Like they wanted to control all the player personnel stuff. So that's why he left. But yeah,

I do think this is getting tiring for him. I can't imagine because I mean, it's his reputation on the line, you know, and Stanton is impacting that. And it's making his job more difficult and it's making Justin Hollander's job more difficult. I don't know if it's getting to a point because like I'm not Jerry.

I don't talk to Jerry despite what some of you think. And, you know, I don't know if this is really coming to a boiling point or not. just from my perspective on the outside looking in, I know I'd get pretty tired and over this, especially when it's impacting my reputation directly. Yeah, a couple problems.

One, deserved or not, Jerry already has the reputation of a quitter across baseball. If he quits another job, he might not get a third one, if he even wants it. So, I mean, despite the resume that he's built in Anaheim, which was pretty solid despite not being able to, you know, run things, essentially. And now what he's done in Seattle and the rebuild and all that stuff, Jerry's definitely a good baseball guy.

But if he quits on a second team, and I'm just saying this is how it will be viewed by, you know, the people who make these decisions, if he quits on the second team, then he might not get a third chance. So he wants to continue to do this. He's kind of stuck a little bit. but also it's not really all that similar like Ty said because basically Arty Moreno and Mike Sosho

were dictating player like who you sign who you trade for like those were not Jerry at least has control over that it's just he's not doing that what what control what power is being taken away from Jerry and Justin is the

the span of the group that he can look at you know group of players that he can look to acquire essentially. Right. Essentially, Moreno told him what players he had to go get. Stanton's basically been telling him, like, you can't afford to go get that guy. Like, we're not even going to give you the chance to get that guy.

So it's different because Jerry wasn't going to sign Albert Poolels. Jerry wasn't going to sign Josh Hamilton. Those weren't Jerry moves. Those were Moreno moves. And as far as we know, Stanton hasn't done that. Right. He's let Jerry pick the players. He just hasn't let Jerry essentially have the full.

buffet of players to pick from because of the financial restraints. I would say that the only way that Jerry would probably leave, or at least this is what he would be angling for if he's getting tired of this and wants out, is if another team comes calling. Because at that point, he doesn't look like a quitter, right? As you're saying. Sure. But it's hard to get a job that's better than president of baseball ops.

Like, there's not really a title higher than that. that. So, you know, if you could sell it as like, I'm going back home to Colorado or whatever, right, then maybe. Or if like a, if the Boston, then I know Boston's also. Yeah, maybe. You know, payroll issues, but like if the Boston job opens. Yeah.

Yeah, I mean, I don't know. The Yankees' GM job becomes a thing. Yeah. They're interested in depot. Like, there are definitely spots where he can move. But in all seriousness, like, there's very few jobs. as good as Seattle. And that's because Jerry has built up a pretty darn good ball club with lots of, you know, good young talent. So there's not a lot of jobs that are going to be better than Seattle,

even with having to, you know, deal with the Stanton Clause. So, you know, I don't think Jerry's looking or even thinking about moving on from this job yet. A couple more times like this and, and maybe finally we'll have the last draw, but I don't think he's looking to greener pastors yet. next question here this is another anonymous one help me understand why signing garver means we're out on anyone else who dh is getting more than 90 games out of garver

seems unlikely is it possible to acquire a lefty with over 100 wRC plus against righties and have them hit the other 72 games does that sort of player not exist or would they cost too much to justify playing so little I mean if you're acquiring that guy you're not acquiring him

because you think garver's only going to play 90 games you know the hope here is that garber is going to play a career high in games. And the way that you're hoping to accomplish that is by playing him in the field as little as possible. There's also some pretty good sign. Like, Garver missed the first two months of last year. And then around July 25th, the Rangers just said, screw it, he's the DH. Like, we're just going to keep his bat in the lineup.

And there were 60 games left to play on July 25th. Garver started 55 of them. and then obviously tack on what he did in the playoffs. So Garber played, he was plenty durable when he finally came back from the injury. The Mariners aren't giving him $12 million. If they were convinced he can't play 115, 120 games. You could still go get a left-handed hitter and, you know, plan a little bit on Garber, getting some days off against tough Riteys and whatnot.

But it can't be a pure DH. Just you can't. You can't have to, you can't have two full-time. DHS on your roster. It just doesn't work. So who's the lefty? Who's a lefty bat? And that guy really has to be able to play a position.

So who's a lefty who is a above average bat who can also at least manage an outfield spot or manage, you know, not even first base really doesn't work. They pretty much have to play in the outfield or not first base to really be in consideration here. So who is that guy? and if your plan is to only have him start 70 games, why are you going to give that guy, you know, $9, $10, $11 million when you might only have $25 million to work with? It's just not really a good fit.

So you're banking on Garber going and playing 120 games. I'm reasonably optimistic he can if you keep them out from behind the plate fairly regularly. So I don't think you need that guy. I don't think that that's a wise use of money or money. prospects to go trade for a guy who you're planning on getting 70 played or 70 games and that's it because they can't play a like jock peterson makes no sense for the mariners he doesn't because he can't play the field so you're just going to have a guy who's a dh only on your bench for a hundred uh you know

for a hundred 15 games like it just doesn't make a lot of sense to spend money on that bat yeah i think there's a couple of guys that would fit this mold that aren't going to cost you really anything might even be my early deals and we've talked about them on the last couple of shows awesome meadows jared walsh take a shot on those guys and they could in theory be a hundred plus w rc plus guys from the left side that you know help you at the dh spot if garber isn't able to play you know 120 hundred 30 games but meadows can also play the outfield he can he can be stationed there and by the way if you wanted to do this Mike Ford is the answer.

Yeah. Mike Ford seemed to make a lot of sense on this roster as it's constructed right now. No, he doesn't. So why would you go and spend, you know, 10 times what Mike Ford's going to cost you on a very much part-time player whose entire value to your club is dependent on Mitch Garber getting hurt? It just doesn't make a lot of sense. Right. All right. Next question comes from the Mariner Mojo Boys.

Shout out to Colton and Joe. What was your personal favorite moment of 2023 for the Mariners? Can be before season started as well as like WBC stuff with Harry Ford. Interview with Jerry Depoto. Yeah, I'll say, I mean, the Depoto, like for us personally, the Depoto interview was pretty cool. It's pretty cool. I think our favorite moment of 2023 though, like we talked about on the last episode was the fundraiser. Like for us personally, like stuff to do with the show.

Yeah. raising $15,000 for those that need. Really cool. What was that? 150,000 meals, right? Yep. Crazy. Crazy.

So, yeah, that's definitely my favorite moment of 20, 23, just for us. Yeah, that was a lot of fun to track the progress. Mariners specific, like the team, like Julio going like 17 for 21 in a four game stretch is definitely way out there. That was pretty cool. Julio's go-ahead home run against Kansas City. That was really good. Just a couple hours after you said that he shouldn't never smile ever. Yeah, that's totally what I said.

Yep. That was my favorite moment of 2023 was you getting canceled on Twitter for that. They tried, but they failed. But, yeah, I mean, like personally, the fundraiser, number one. And then, like, baseball-wise, for me, you know, Kirby on Felix weekend. That's just hilarious. Like, how can you not smile and laugh at that a little bit? And then, like, Julio's insane August, that was a lot of fun to watch.

Yeah. A couple others, JP walk off against the Rangers, then signing the camera after. Yeah, that's way up there. July game or Logan Gilbert threw the complete game shutout and Mike Ford almost it for the cycle. Yeah, yeah. JP's diving double play against the Angels to get Matt Brash out of a jam

down in Anaheim was pretty sick Oh, Teo's walk off against the Blue Jays just for personal reasons. Sure. It was the one time Teo was a valuable player. What about when they scored like seven runs off of the Astros bullpen

in the 8th after being down like five to nothing? That was in April or May. Like May, the early May I think that was that was fun yeah but yeah I mean there were some good moments unfortunately a lot of bad uh mostly mostly April May and September like everything in between was okay but right yeah yikes uh do you think adding a six starter could be in the cards and do you think they should have considered adding one even if it's just for a bit in the beginning of the season to keep endings down on a young staff example like Chris flex and signed for 1.75 million. Good show and thanks for taking my question. Thank you so much for your question. Yeah, so they really need to beef up their pitching depth right now

because we talked about this, I think, on Wednesday, if I remember correctly, that you're number seven right now behind Hancock, Wu, Miller, etc. might be Jimmy Joyce, which actually, it might be, it's probably Darren McCacken, which I know there's someone in the comments that would be that's very excited about that. I thought McCacken was going overseas or something.

No, no, he's still in the org. He's still in the org. He's still in the org? He's still in the org. He's still in the org. Yeah.

How? Yeah, it's probably Macacken then. Darren McCacken's probably your number seven right now. You need at least like a couple of Tommy Malones right now. Like, sure. And that's usually something that you acquire like, February, right before pitchers and catchers, even after pitchers and catchers reports.

I would go out. I would get like a pretty safe starting pitcher veteran, but not to use as a six-man rotation, just to put Wu back in AA where he can work on change up or slider or cutter or whatever it is. And you can kind of control his workload a little bit better because Wu doubled his career high innings pitch last year. That might have a hang-oh. There might be a hangover effect early in the year. So I want to protect Brian Wu a little bit. But I guess you can do that with a six-man rotation. He only pitches once a week, basically.

But I would just rather send him down to AAA. I can short script them if I have to. And if I can get just a number five starter, run-of-the-mill number five, you know, I don't know, Johnny Quedo or whatever. Yeah. I would rather do that. So I, but I do think a six-man rotation is on the table, but that feels like something you,

should only do if the guy you're getting is like like imamaga like a legit like middle of the rotation guy yeah the other uh possibility here that's on the table is um getting a guy that can slot into the bullpen that you can sell on the idea of competing for the number five spot so colby you've mentioned a couple guys like shantaro fujinami and jacob junis for that possibility basically what seattle did with luke weber at the end of last year where it's like we're gonna stick in the bullpen but you're probably going to get some spot starts because we have to manage Wu a little bit. Max wants to know based on the crazy market for pitchers, Gialito gained $38 million.

Are you convinced the Mariners are holding on to Bryce Miller and Brian Wu due to high prices for their replacements unless the team offers them a deal that can't pass up? Do you see them staying through the winner? So I touched upon this a little bit last week. It's basically like, all right, if you look at like a Bryce Miller trade, right? and you get Randy a Rose Arena and return for them just for the sake of the example. Right. Your lineup obviously gets better,

but does your roster actually overall better than having Bryce Miller in your rotation, having a guy with that kind of upside as your number four behind the likes of Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby? If the answer is no, then how much is it going to cost you to make up the difference in the rotation to go and get that replacement. And if making up that difference ends up taking you into the

Lucas Giolyto you know, Frankie Montus range, then you're not getting that guy. And therefore you're not making up the difference. And therefore, do you think that your roster is actually that much better or even better in general to any sort of degree? I don't know. I don't know.

Yeah. Because basically, you're robbing Peter to pay Paul. Right. Basically, it's like, would you rather have Randy a Roserana and like Johnny Quato or Rich Hill or Dakota Hudson like one of those guys?

Would you rather have a Roserena and that guy or like Kepler and Miller? Yeah. Which one is a better team? Probably Kepler, Miller. So, yeah. The Geolito AAV didn't really surprise me that much. when I thought about it.

I thought maybe he'd get like 17, 18. So it's not Jurassic overpaid. The Montes won at 15 million. His home run issues though and then Finway? Well, it was interesting is that the park factors actually, I looked it up. He'd only give it up 22 home runs in Boston. I assume because of the monster. He'd give up a ton of doubles, but they wouldn't quite clear the monster would be my assumption.

Or was he giving up a lot of like dead center home runs? Maybe. He might have been. but yeah like I'm fine Seattle didn't jump into that market at 19 million the Montes getting 15 million after only won any pitch last year that's a pretty large like pillow contract like a prove it deal like no I was into Montes not at 15 million how did he get more than Severino and guys like that who are very similar ideas where it's like they've been good in the past they aren't good right now or they're hurt right now like I don't we're taking a shot I don't really get it but uh So yeah, I think because it's going to be very expensive to replace Miller or Wu in theory if you trade them, I think Seattle's what they've probably done is what you've suggested, which is we're listening on them, but you have to blow us away. Like it has to be so ridiculous that we can't say no. Otherwise, we're going to keep them and we're going to, you know, we're going to get a lesser hitter than Randy Rosarena. probably a player who's worth roughly the same in terms of just straight up wins above

replacement for prospects instead. And that's how we're going to do this thing. Because again, like, is Randy Rosemary, a better hitter than like Lamont Wade or Mike Oströmski? Yes. Are they both likely to be two and a half one players? Yeah, probably in that range. Are both going to cost Bryce Miller?

No. So you go with a cheaper one. So, to me, unless you're getting like, an all-star for multiple years for woo or miller i just i'm keeping them and i'm going the cheaper route with the bats agreed agreed all right that's going to do it for our show thank you so much for joining us here on the lockdown mariner's podcast for colby pat node i'm ty dan gonzalez be sure to give us a follow on twitter at hello underscore mariners you can follow me at tie dain gonzalez and colby at c pat 11 that's cpat 1-1 you can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode thank you

again for making us your first listen have yourself a beautiful base ball day and we'll see you next time peace