Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Mailbag: Does Blake Snell's New Asking Price Finally Make Sense For the Mariners?

Starting point is 00:00:00 The regular season begins next week and you've got questions. We'll answer a few of them coming up here on the Locked on Marrars podcast. Colby, hit it. You are Locked on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day. Ahoy, sailors. It is Monday, March 18, 2024.

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Starting point is 00:01:06 The show will we answer your Mariners questions. And we're going to start here with Mr. Unlimited, who wants to know, what do you think a solid record goal should be for the Mariners at the end of April? Should we be worried if they end the month with a 500 record? What record will we have to achieve if we were to win the division? It's not so much April. You have to be better. And it's just the first half in general.

Starting point is 00:01:33 You know, it's pretty interesting. There's six months in a season. If you finish three games over 500 every month, you know, you're going to win 88 games. That puts you right in the mix. Like, you're right around there. So, yeah, it's really like you don't have to win 20 games every month to be a good team. You don't have to win, you know, you don't have to avoid, you know, a sub 500. If you go, you know, 11 and 13 one month or whatever, you don't have to go 21 and 6 the next month to make up for it.

Starting point is 00:02:04 And that's kind of the theory, right? So it's really about avoiding bad months, like stacking on top of each other. So, you know, if they go, I don't know how many games they have in April, but if they go 12 and 12 or whatever in April, they go 13 and 13 in April, like, that's fine. because then if they go 15 and 10 in May and then they go 14 and 11 in June, then they're eight games over 500, you know, nearing the All-Star break, they're in a pretty good spot probably. And a lot of this has to do with what are the Astros doing?

Starting point is 00:02:36 What are the Rangers doing? You know, how are these other teams playing? Or did they, you know, did they happen to jump out to the Tampa Bay Rays type of, you know, start? And now you're trying to play catch up that will also dictate. So I know there's more of a, an emphasis for the Mariners to get off to a better start this year. But I just don't know how not realistic it is.

Starting point is 00:02:56 I just don't, I don't think that you can over, I don't think you want to try and overvalue these games in April. They're important, but there's still a little bit of experiment. There's still a little bit of experimentation going on here, particularly with the bullpen. When you don't have brash, you don't have Santos. Hopefully you get them back by the end of April. But there's going to be some trial on air. You're going to have to try some different things here.

Starting point is 00:03:19 And, you know, guys sometimes just struggle. early in the year. Like there are players who just simply don't perform in April and it takes them a little while, uh, to get going. So, you know, I don't want to put too much emphasis on April. It is, you know, just as important as May, June, July. Like, they matter. Those games absolutely matter. And when they blow a lead or whatever, it hurts because we know how important every game is. But I don't think that it's wise to go into April and, and see them go, you know, 12 and 14 or whatever. And it's just, Throw your hands up in the air and be like, well, we can't win the division now. Like, that's just not a thing. Every team is going to struggle. You know, every team is going to have good months. Every once in a while, a team will have a terrible month or they'll have an amazing month. You just kind of want to avoid the terrible month.

Starting point is 00:04:08 So you don't want to be digging yourself out of a hole. You want to be in a position where come, you know, the All-Star break, essentially, you're within reach of the division and you're, you know, you're in good spot. in like a wild card race type of thing. You just want to be in a position where it makes sense for the front office to see this as a team worth investing in. And so you do that if you go, you know, 16 and 12 in April. You could do that if you go, you know, 12 and 14 in April and then you go 17 and 11 in May. Like it all evens out.

Starting point is 00:04:40 So yes, April games matter. Yes, they are, you know, just as important as games in September. But they're also having a much wider margin of, you know, outcomes because we don't know who these teams are yet. We're trying to figure things out at the top even as, you know, spring training doesn't tell us a ton for a lot of the stuff. So just don't bury yourself. You mean the Mariners are not going to have the best offense and the worst pitching staff

Starting point is 00:05:08 and baseball like they've had in spring training? Probably not. Probably not. But yeah, there's going to be, you know, you're going to take a shot on a guy in a bullpen and he's going to struggle for a couple weeks. And you're not going to just bench him after, you know, one bad outing you're going to you're going to give the guy some time like you're not going to bench luke grayly after the first week because he's you know three for 18 you're going to give him

Starting point is 00:05:31 some time to try and figure things out so um you know april's tough because you just can't react right away right you got to let things play out you have to build a sample size before you can make smart decisions uh but sometimes you try and build that sample size out and it ends up biting you at the of the year. So it's a very, you know, uh, delicate procedure here in April. Since we're on the topic, the, the Mariners have been very forthright this off season and how important April is to them, how much better they want to be in April. How differently do you think they'll attack the early months of the season? I honestly don't think that there. I don't know how you can attack like pitchers. You're not going to ask them to go 110 pitches.

Starting point is 00:06:17 You're not going to, you know, try and push them for an extra out or two in the seventh when they're, you know, 94 pitches. You're just not going to do that in April because you're still playing a long game. You're at, you know, essentially the starting line of a marathon. Like, you're not just going to burn out and try and build this huge lead. So I don't know if they can. And also with the bullpen, you know, being in the shape that it's in, I don't know if they can be that aggressive with it. You know, they might have to ask, you know, somebody else to step up and go. get a fourth out or something like that.

Starting point is 00:06:49 So I don't think they can get that aggressive or change that much. I think they just want to play better in the month of April. And I don't know if that means Scott's going to make any changes in like in personnel earlier or anything like that. I just I think it's just about playing better in April because there's like I said that you can't just like make these decisions on very small sample size and not give guys a chance to kind of, you know, get into the flow of the season and then try and figure some stuff out. So I don't know if there's a ton they can do. Like I don't think we'll see any I don't think we'll look at something

Starting point is 00:07:21 and be like last year they wouldn't have done that and that right there indicates how important these April games are to them. I don't think we're going to see that to be honest. Gotcha. All right.

Starting point is 00:07:31 Next question here from Dylan. How do you evaluate relievers in spring training? When does the scale tip from good appearances to name to watch? For example, Reed Van Scoder, three games, six innings,

Starting point is 00:07:44 zero earned runs, 11 strikeout, zero walks three hits allowed for me it's it's not about the stats it's about the stuff it's about you know things that guys are working on things that might be different from the previous year to now what do i think can carry over because stats are secondary tertiary they're they're not even really factoring into the equation here especially for guys when they're entering these these appearances um they're working on things right it doesn't matter if they get hit around the park it's just today i got to work on my change up or what have you so i'm going

Starting point is 00:08:22 to throw that a bunch and if it gets hit it around okay so be it but i i just want to see like does that look like a major league quality offering if it's like a new pitch someone is working on or is your velocity roughly around where it needs to be stuff like that sure as for when does it become, you know, go from good appearance to a name to watch. I don't think that happens as often as people think. Sure. I think most of the time, clubs in particular, they know who they're watching, like to make the club.

Starting point is 00:08:54 They know who they're watching before spring training starts. Like, we're going to keep an eye on this guy and this guy because we think they can factor in. Like, I don't think anybody comes into spring training and drastically changes the mind of, you know, anybody in who makes decisions in baseball. Yeah, I think that's more from a, from a fan perspective rather than a, from a team perspective like Tyson Miller I think is a pretty good example of this like I think the team already knew roughly what they had in Tyson Miller but now fans are starting to learn about him because

Starting point is 00:09:22 fans are starting to see him now and then right you know be reporters are talking about him etc all right we're going to answer a few more of your questions in just a moment but first a reminder this episode of the locked on air is podcast is brought to you by fan duel say goodbye to bust the brackets because fan duel lets you bet on every game of the turning whether you're betting on a big upset or one seed, it's time to go dancing on America's number one sports book. Right now, new customers get $200 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins. That's $200 to use on point spreads, money lines. You can even pick who's going to win it all.

Starting point is 00:09:57 Just visit fanduel.com slash Lockdown. That's L-O-C-D-O-N and bet on college hoops until they cut down the nets. And you're listening to the Lockdown Merritt's podcast. Thank you again for making us to your first listen. And as you know, Lockdown has launched the first ever national sports 24-7 streaming channel, Locked-on Sports Today. Baseball fans, mark your calendars for March 20th at 7 p.m. Eastern for the best MLB season preview coming exclusively to Locked-on Sports Today.

Starting point is 00:10:27 On March 20th at 7 p.m. Eastern, be the first to get insight from the MLB local experts of the Locked-on podcast network, including myself. Find it on March 20th at 7 p.m. Eastern on the Lockdown Sports Today 24-7-7 stream channel on YouTube or the free Amazon Fire TV channels app. And let's get back into your questions here on Mailbag Monday. We got one here from OSG. What's the route for some Mod Taylor to make the team out of spring training? There isn't one except for injury.

Starting point is 00:10:59 Yeah, knock on wood. Next question here from Costco hot dogs. It's a great name. I would take Blake Snell for two years and 66 million in a heartbeat. but then again, I'm not a GM for a reason. What am I missing? Would it be a bad contract for the Marrars? How much would Snell have to take off the asking price for the Marys to consider it?

Starting point is 00:11:20 How much would Snow have to take off? About $30 million. So it's just, it's not. Basically make it a one year deal. Would you pay him $33 million over one year? Would I? Yes. Would John Stanton?

Starting point is 00:11:37 Not in a million years. Oh, yeah, no, he won't. He won't. I don't think Jerry Depoto would either. would Jerry give him $22 million a year? Probably if you had that money. Like if you had that budget, sure. It's the same conversation as the Matt Chapman conversation,

Starting point is 00:11:52 just even on a greater scale, right? Like, all right. Let's say John Stanton has a change of heart, or he's willing to make an exception for Blake Snell, right, on a one year $33 million deal. But he tells Jerry to Poto and Justin Hollander, that's it, though. That's all the money I'm going to give you.

Starting point is 00:12:11 that's far more than I was going to give you over the course of the remainder of the season. So if you're Jerry Depoto and Justin Hollander and you have that information and you basically have a choice to make of Blake Snell or any sort of flexibility for whatever might crop up over the course of the season because things are going to crop up, just how things are going to go. Even things that you think are set in stone right now might not be in a couple months time, right? So it might not just be like, hey, I might have to get a third baseman, you know, by the deadline or all these other things that, you know, we think they might need a few months down the road, right? You know, maybe someone gets hurt. And now all of a sudden, I need to go out and get a second basement. I need to go out and get a starting pitcher, et cetera, whatever, right? So is that, is that worth sacrificing for for Blake Snell, who is the luxury of all luxuries for the mariners who have already without Blake Snell?

Starting point is 00:13:07 arguably the best rotation in all baseball. First of all, if Blake doesn't fire Scott, Boris, you know, at some point this season, he's doing himself a huge disservice. But because Scott's,

Starting point is 00:13:20 Scott Boris has probably cost Blake Snell $100 million. By the way, like what's going on with Jordan Montgomery? Right. Because like I can, I can kind of wrap my head around the Snell stuff because obviously there's injury concern. There's,

Starting point is 00:13:32 you know, the fact that he doesn't get deep into ball games. Walks are a big issue. Like, You know, there are many reasons for teams to not be sold on basically paying him an elite contract, right? But Montgomery feels pretty safe. Why hasn't he signed? I know he really wants to be a Red Sock.

Starting point is 00:13:52 Maybe that's the hang up. Like, he's just trying desperately to get the Red Sox to come to the table. But I don't get that one. The Snell one, I can wrap my head around a little bit more, but Montgomery, not at all. I don't know what Boris is doing, but it's very clear. It's become very clear this offseason that teams basically said, we're not taking Boris's stuff anymore. I mean, part of it too,

Starting point is 00:14:18 that was Boris's own hubris. Like, well, Cody Bellinger's not signing for less than $200 million. Nobody's given Cody Bellinger $200. Blake Snell deserves 9 and 250. Everybody laughed when they heard that. Like you tried to pump up these players. You're like, oh, Cody Bellinger is Bryce Harper. No, he's not.

Starting point is 00:14:36 No, he's not. Blake Snell is Garrett Cole. No, he's not. And teams aren't, they're not going to do that. It's particularly in a offseason where all the RSN issues have been used as an excuse. Like the owners have a built-in excuse not to spend as much as they should. Of course, they're going to take it. And you peddled your players around like they deserve these elite contracts.

Starting point is 00:14:55 And honestly, none of them did. None of them deserve $200 million. None. You didn't have a $200 million player. You overplayed your hand. You got caught. and unfortunately guys like Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell are the ones who have to pay for it and Cody Ballinger and Matt Chapman.

Starting point is 00:15:10 Like those guys have to pay for it. It's unfortunate, but that's the reality. All right. We're going to answer some more of your questions in just a moment, but first a reminder, this episode of the Lockdown Airs podcast is brought to you by eBay Motors. Passion, drive, and patience. What brings home the winning trophy is also what keeps your ride or die alive. eBay Motors has everything you need to maintain your vehicle and level it up to peak performance.

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Starting point is 00:16:09 Eligible items only, exclusions apply. eBay guaranteed fit only available to U.S. customers. You're listening to the Lockdown Eras podcast. Thank you again for making us your first listen here on Mailbag Monday. Got a couple more of your questions coming up here before we get out of here. Collins is like it is asked MLB.com has Cody Bolton making the roster over guys like Tyson Miller and Ty Buttery, just national guys looking at the 40-man roster, or does Bolton have a legitimate shot at making the team? Thanks.

Starting point is 00:16:41 Colby, what do you think? Cody Bolton making the roster? It's possible, sure. It's also worth noting the Mariners have an open spot on their 40-man, and they're obviously going to create one when Taylor Tremel doesn't make the team. So if you're wondering how do they get Tyson-Miller and Ty Butchry on the 40-man, they already have the spots open for it. Also, kind of feels like I had were bizarre. I was going to wind up on the 60 days. So creating spots on the 40 man, not an issue if they want to ask.

Starting point is 00:17:09 Clearly doing so to bring in Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. Sure. So, yeah, Bolton, I know Scott Service said he was impressed with him on the game on, I think yesterday's game, might have been Saturday's game, that they were impressed with Bolton. They like what they saw from him. So it certainly has a shot.

Starting point is 00:17:27 At this stage, though, I would be pretty surprised if Tyson Miller doesn't make the opening day bullpen. But remember, there's two spots open. So it could be Miller and Bolton, but I think personally it'll be Miller and Butchery. We'll see because Bolton does have options left. He doesn't have to make the team. You could send him down to Tacoma, and he'll probably, you'll probably need him at some point this year. So I don't know this is national guys just looking at the 40 man or maybe potentially the, was this Kramer?

Starting point is 00:17:55 Or I don't know. If it's Kramer, maybe he's just looking at him being like, okay, well, who has an A, edge, it's probably the guy on the 40 man. And in this particular case, that's just not true. Because the Mariners have 40 man room to give. Like they've already in one spot. We know they're going to clear another with Tremel. They probably are going to have to clear another with Bizarro.

Starting point is 00:18:16 They're more than likely by the time they have to make their opening day roster announcement. They're probably going to have three 40 man spots open. So pretty easy to fill those with relievers. So I think Bolton's got a shot. Sure. I don't think it's a. I don't think it's a 40-man thing, though. I don't think it's like, oh, well, they're just going to go with the guy on the 40-man because it's easy.

Starting point is 00:18:37 Like, they don't have to do that. Next question here from Michael. Which home series is the most exciting matchup for the M's in the first month? Some fun ones with Braves, Cubs, D-backs, and Reds all coming to town. Colby, you're a big schedule guy. You love looking ahead at the schedule. So you kick us off career. Oh, boy, do I?

Starting point is 00:18:58 I think for Mariners fans, it probably has to be that. Diamondback series, right? Do you get A. E. E. Hino-Souras and Paul Seawald back? Yeah. Like, just for the first time at Team Mobile Park. Yeah, it's probably that one. The Braves are fun, but the problem with the Braves is that like people are going to, it's a litmus test.

Starting point is 00:19:16 It's like, it's also like April 12th. So not really. It's a little later than that. But yeah, yeah. Whatever. But you know what I mean? Like, oh yeah. So the Mariners sweep the Braves, then they're a World Series contender.

Starting point is 00:19:27 But if they get swept, they might have the first pick in the draft next. year. Like, right. It just, so the Braves are fun. Obviously, Olson and the Coonia. Yeah. Um, you know, Ozzy Albies and then probably Max Reed, like, you know, that's a fun. Sure, like that's a fun series to go to. But I think from a Marys fans perspective, you probably want to go see Paul and Geno, right? Like, those guys are such a huge part of, of the team the last few years that, I think, you know, seeing them and giving them the, you know, the send-off or the thanks that they deserve that they haven't gotten a get yet i think that's a pretty obvious answer so for me it's arizona the cubs are kind of fun this year though so that might be a fun series to go to um they're all pretty good series honestly the red series kind of lost some of its shine because you know

Starting point is 00:20:16 no all these suspension sure um but you know if you like alley della cruz alley delacruz i got some pitching matt mcclain like yeah yeah it's fun uh yeah i think it's obvious i think the obvious answer here that was the that brave series 29 30th and then may 1st yeah that's that's sure technically not the first month if it ends on may 1st but whatever we'll allow it right right colby but i i think the diamond backs is actually the pretty easy answer there just because of who who would be coming to town in theory the interesting thing for me would be if paul sewald comes in to save a game like in the ninth do fans cheer him when he comes in do they you know like like how do they work that?

Starting point is 00:21:02 Right. Because like if he's coming in. He's down three to see. Yeah. Like if Paul Seawald's coming in the game, you're probably losing and you're rooting for him to fail. So I guess the best case scenario would be like they win the first two games and they get to the third game. And like they just Paul just to nothing and the eighth.

Starting point is 00:21:19 And it's like, yeah, just throw Paul out there. And then they'd be like, yeah, sure, whatever. So maybe like the mariners are up four three, but like the heart of the order is coming up and they're like, screw it. We have to use Seawald here. Like maybe. Yeah. something like that, but we'll see, but yeah, uh, it'll be really easy to do with Gino.

Starting point is 00:21:36 You just do it in the first inning, blah, blah, blah. You know, whatever. It's a little different with a reliever. It's a little different. It's particularly a closer coming in. Uh, but also looking forward to that, uh, that first road series, Luis Urius Reven series against the brewers. And then, uh, you know, they go to Toronto, which, uh, obviously.

Starting point is 00:21:58 Nobody cares, Ty. nobody cares oh you want to talk about game two of the wildcard again oh boy with all my heart i do all right let's go the next question cal's bobble face some great names in this episode cal's bobble face wants to know do you guys ever have interest in working for an mlb team analytics department no why stare at a computer with numbers all day no thanks because you totally don't do that now. No. I want to be the guy making the decisions. I'll be a GM.

Starting point is 00:22:34 Okay. But I'll be a GM and I hire some nerds to be in the analyst department. You're just going to, you're going to, you're going to jump the ladder. You're just going to go from podcaster to GM. I tell you what, I do a better job than AJ Preller. Backed. Yeah, a lot of people could do a better job than AJ

Starting point is 00:22:52 Priller. But, no, not really. I don't think I'm qualified to do that I'm not good at math I let other people do math for me But you know And then I apply What I what I other people tell me I'm not qualified to be in the analytics department

Starting point is 00:23:13 Did you hear the thing that Aaron Goldsmith Talked about on Marine Lair the other day? You said a shout out to the Marine Lair podcast by the way Right Who? Right Your best friend, Aaron Goldsmith, who loves for Jerry Dotto collection. Dave is better anyways.

Starting point is 00:23:35 We went from Goldie being like top our interview list to like, public enemy number one for Colvin. Poor man's Dave Sims is what I call him. But he mentioned on Marine Lair that the Dernard span trade happened because two interns brought it to the attention of Jerry DePoto and company. So you could be that intern, Colby. You could finally make the Max Kepler trade happen. Sure.

Starting point is 00:24:05 But first of all, let's point this out. I'm not working for anybody for free. So you could take your BS interns, which nobody should be working, by the way. They're just a privilege for the rich. They might be paid interns.

Starting point is 00:24:20 If you're doing work, you have to be paid. You don't get paid in experience. Experience doesn't pay the electric. bill. Okay, so take your interns title, your unpaid interns and just shove it up where the sun don't shine because that is exploitative and it is a benefit only available to those who are financially well off enough to live off of their parents because they can't afford to work for free eight to 12 hour days. So screw you Mariners if you're using unpaid interns. Also, we also heard that

Starting point is 00:24:51 story about Jake Frailey also being an intern idea and the famous JP Crawford. story about how the Mariners came to target jp crawford so uh yeah it's it's a very collaborative effort up there and and um you know just at basically anybody who works in the baseball ops department they'll have a chance to have their voice be heard but they might not have a chance to cash a paycheck how dare you the the way you switch gear there was a leap what can i say I'm the best in the game. I'm not dignifying that with a response. Before we get out of here,

Starting point is 00:25:32 a reminder that Lockdown has launched the first ever national sports 24-7 streaming channel on YouTube, and now it's also available on Amazon Fire TV and the free Fire TV channels app. Locked-on Sports Today is here for you 24-7 covering the top sports stories of the day with the local experts of Locked-on, plus our national shows covering every league.

Starting point is 00:25:50 Find Locked-on Sports Today, now available on the free Fire TV channels app. Thank you so much for joining us here on the Lockdown Marrars podcast. For Colby Pat node, I'm Ty Dan Gonzalez. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L0 underscore Mariners. You can follow me at Ty Dane Gonzalez and Colby at CPAT 11. That's CPAT 1-1. You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode. Thank you again for making us your first listen.

Starting point is 00:26:13 Have yourself a beautiful baseball day and we'll see you next time. Peace.

Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Mailbag: Does Blake Snell's New Asking Price Finally Make Sense For the Mariners?

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