Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Mailbag: International Signing Period, Over/Under Projections For 2023 Mariners + Giveaway Announcement!

Episode Date: January 16, 2023

On this episode of Locked On Mariners, we open up the mailbag for another Mariners Mailbag Monday episode! But first, Ty announces our latest giveaway. All you need to do to win is subscribe to our YouTube channel! On today's episode, we play over/under including Luis Castillo's ERA, Cal Raleigh's home run total, and Julio Rodriguez's WAR. Plus, we discuss the team's latest international free agent class and much more!Be sure to follow or subscribe to Locked On Mariners wherever you prefer your podcasts! For questions and other inquiries, email: [e-mail] the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @danegnzlz | @CPat11For more of Ty and Colby, check out their Patreon: patreon.com/controlthezone/Join our Slack!BetOnlineBetOnline.net has you covered this season with more props, odds and lines than ever before. BetOnline – Where The Game Starts!Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKEDON15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

On today's episode of Locked-on Mariners, we'll be playing some over-unders, discussing international free agents and a whole lot more. Let's do this thing. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked-on podcast network, your team every day. It is Monday, January 16th, 2023, Martin Luther King Jr. Day. This is Tadang Azales and Colby Pat Node for the Lockdown Mariners podcast.

Brought to you by Bet Online. Bet Online has you covered all season long with more props, Oz. and lines than ever before. Bet Online is where the game starts. And thank you so much for making us your first listen, subscribe, like, and turn on alerts if you're watching on YouTube or subscribe and leave a five-star review on your preferred podcast platform. If you like what you hear.

And if you want to hear from us even more, please consider signing up for our Patreon. The link as well as our social accounts is in the description below. It is Mailbag Monday today, and this is definitely the first time we have tried recording this episode. We're going to answer a few questions from you guys. But before we do, we're giving away a $50 $40. Mariner's gift card to one lucky listener.

This can be used to purchase tickets or concessions at T-Mobile Park as well as merch from any Mariners team store. However, for some inexplicable dumb reason, this can only be used in person and not online, but I do have a way to circumvent that. So if you live outside of Washington, you can still enter. Don't fret. If you win, I'll change the prize to a $50 fanatics or MLB shop gift card instead so we can hook you up with some sweet new Mariners gear all you have to do to enter is

subscribe to our youtube channel if you're watching us right now the subscribe button is right below our faces if you're just listening head on over to youtube.com and type in locked on mariners and subscribe it's totally free and if you're already subscribed you're already entered so you don't have to do anything just enjoy the show that's all and wait until next week and hopefully you get picked but please consider telling your friends to subscribe as well or any mariners fans that you know even if you hate them, tell them to come on over here. The deadline to enter is next Tuesday, January 24th, at 1159 p.m. Pacific. We will then select the winner from our YouTube subscriber list and announce it on next Wednesday's show, which is January 25th.

All right. Now that we have that long-winded explanation out of the way, which I've now gone over twice, we've also tried recording this episode four times. Hopefully this works. Hopefully this is the last one. Let's get into these questions. Please, oh please, do not disconnect. All right, Aidan wants to know. Thoughts on the Mariners' recent international signings.

And of course, on top of that, we have a question from Dakota who asked, what is one international signing that is underrated or under the radar? So, yes, yesterday marked the beginning of this year's international free agent signing period for all the young prospects coming out of the Dominican and neighboring countries. and the Mariners, of course, finally have signed Felden and Celestine after what seems to be, I think it's been like two years, at least that we've been talking about Celestine. Of course, you know, these handshake agreements between players and organizations happen well, you know, multiple years in advance before the free agent signing period comes up. But Celestine is finally a member of the Mariners farm system. And the Mariners also added, I believe, five other international.

prospects and they're going to be adding two more on Tuesday as well according to Joe Doyle of prospects live. So Colby, your overall thoughts on this free agent class for the Mariners and yeah, who's someone that's not Felton and Celestine that we should be keeping an eye on? I'm allowed to speak that that's so nice of you four minutes in, but it's, it's my understanding is it's a good class. It's a pretty good class. anytime you can grab a headliner like Belnan Celestine,

who was either first, second, or third in, you know, the class, ranked in the class, at least, by pretty much any publication you can trust. It certainly raises the floor of your entire class, but there are a few other interesting names here. You know, I think, you know, the two of that, Dylan Wilson and and Jeter Martinez are certainly really interesting. I know Joe Doyle likes both of them and his talk both of them up.

you know, pretty heavily. So those are definitely some guys to watch. I'm really interested by Sebastian de Andrade, I want to say. I'm not quite sure how to pronounce it. But he's a, you know, 5 foot 11 catcher with some really good raw power. And some seem to think that he has a good shot to stay behind the plate. We'll see he's 16, who knows. And that's really the thing with all these guys.

It's exciting when you add some fresh new talent into the organization. but these are these type of you know signings are far in a way the biggest biggest margin of error i guess we would say like the the floor on every single one of these guys including celestine is that they never make it to double a right like that's just the nature of of international free agency these these kids are so young and there's so much unknown about them that sometimes they just they fail and they can't play pro ball um and you just end up you know writing a check for for it's a bad investment and that happens. It happens far more frequently than you find Julio Rodriguez, right?

So just keep that in mind. These kids are 16, 17 years old. They have a long way to go. They're probably four or five years away from even sniffing the big leagues. And that's, you know, the really good ones who move pretty fast. Felon Selden Selden Selen Selden Selassine is probably four or five years away from sniffing the big leagues. And he's a really good prospect. He's in my top three, uh, mariner prospects now that he's officially entered, uh, the organization.

And there are a few others here who are, you know, top 30, top 40 types as well. But they are so far away and they have so much room to grow that it's really hard for me to sit here and say, this is a great class. They got three major leaguers, blah, blah, blah. I don't know. They got a lot of talent. They added a lot of talent to their system. And that's really all today and the next few days is all about just raw talent, put it in your system and hope for the best.

But overall, based on what I know about these players, which isn't a ton, it sounds like they got a pretty good group. Yeah, when we had Joe on the show a couple weeks ago, he talked a lot about Wilson and Martinez. So those are a couple of guys to keep an eye on. I believe that he said both of those guys are fringe top 30 prospects for him right now as of today in the Mariners system. The other guy that I'm really intrigued by is Kendall Mesa,

who they got out of Nicaragua. And he's 6-1, 155 pounds, and he's already pumping out in mid-90s. Like he's sitting at, like comfortably sitting at 93, 94. And I mean, if he's already there at 155 pounds at his age, as he starts to age up and he starts to add more weight and starts to really fill into his body, where's that velocity going to end up? Like I think we're talking about a triple digit ceiling there. Now he's more than likely going to be a reliever with that type of profile,

because really the thing that he's just got going on for him right now is the fastball and that's mostly it like he's working on you know secondary and tertiary at the moment but um the the the ceiling for the velocity there is really enticing so that's one that i'm going to be keeping an eye on as well um but yeah you know we we don't see these guys personally you know so there's only so much that we can give you we're going off of the same reports that you guys have uh but that's kind of what i'm seeing right now um it's not a lot of But, you know, we'll see what happens when these guys start playing down on the DSL this summer. And, you know, we'll see who eventually makes their way stateside and what they do with that. All right. So we got a question here from Stu who wants to know if he had to pick one position player in the minors that hasn't played in the majors yet that could make a huge jump to the major league roster this year and have an impact. Who would it be? Colby, unless I'm missing someone here that's obvious. here just trying to think on the spot.

I think the list is Cade Marlowe and that's the end of the list because you know with the timelines of a lot of the Mariners position player prospects it's not going to be a big year for that for guys making an impact at the major league level and really there isn't

a ton of open pathways for guys to get playing time in Seattle this year either with just the way the roster is constructed but Marlow is somewhat of an exception but he's also a massive question mark because, you know, they did add him to the 40 main roster. It seems like they do really like him.

They added him to the taxi squad for the playoffs. So they seem like he could even contribute potentially in the postseason at some point. But he's got to beat out Jared Kelnick and Taylor Tremel this spring in order for him to even make the roster. And while he's, you know, the Mariners minor league hitter of the year and he, you know, provides some really interesting tools, especially defensively and on the base pass. that strikeout rate the strikeout rates that he's running down on the miners is concerning in terms of how that translates to the major league level and so yeah you know i mean there is definitely the possibility that he is your essentially your version of what the astros have in chas mccormick or jake meyers it's also possible that he is absolutely nothing you know so uh it's not uh there isn't one guy in the mariners farm system at least that i can think of right now that could make the major leagues at some point in 2023 that I'm going, yeah, that that guy could definitely contribute. It's Cade Marlow and really that's just a possibility rather than a certainty.

And then, yeah, really anyone else. I mean, like there's a color of other guys I can think of that are essentially like if they broke out they are on the timeline like age wise to make it to the big leagues like a Zach De Loach, but there is nothing that I've ever seen from Zach DeLoach that suggests to me that he's going to even sniff the major league level in Seattle. So, yeah, I think it's Marlowe and that's it. If you got any significant impact from anybody but Marlowe who fit the criteria of the question, that would qualify as coming out of nowhere because the managers aren't there.

Most of the offensive talent in this organization, at least prospect-wise, is down in high A or A ball. They're coming. I mean, there's a good chance that you'll have three or four of them in the year in AA. And, you know, maybe there's somebody on the double A roster who takes a big jump and he's on the precipice, you know, and in AAA in August and September, maybe it's, it's Tyler Locklear who, you know, jumps and moves to AAA.

But to come up to the big leagues and, you know, be an impact on your roster, it's just not going to happen offensively. There's some pitchers who fit that mold, Bryce Miller, Taylor, Dullard, Emerson, Hancock, Isaiah Campbell, Travis Coon, like, there's a few pitchers. that could do that for you. But position players who have zero major league experience, I don't think that's happening. And I would be pretty surprised if even Cade Marlowe came up and gave you,

you know, one or two wins just based on the on the strikeouts and stuff like that. So offensively, it's not there. Pitching-wise, there are a handful of guys. Yeah, there's going to be some really interesting pitchers from Bryce Miller to

Isaiah Campbell, et cetera. Like there's some guys to talk about there. Just position player-wise, not a great year for that. I think like really if anyone is going to fit this criteria outside of Marlowe it's going to be someone that you end up trading for someone that you end up picking up off of you know waivers or a minorly contractor you know someone like that you know non-rosster invite someone like that but yeah right

now in terms of guys in the in the mayor's organization at the moment that are kind of on that timeline age wise just it's a very very short list so we'll see if Marlow can make it because he definitely has some some interesting upside there but he's a bit on the older side so you never know and with those strikeouts it's just yeah it's a little concerning all right we got a few more questions to go over here in just a moment but once again this episode of locked on mariners is brought to you by bet online betonline.net is your number one source for sports betting info stats news and analysis get the latest odds and trends for every professional and amateur league out there from pro football to basketball we've got it all at betonline.

And if you love sports podcasts, you can even find those at Bet Online as well. We're always the fastest and easiest way to get your betting info. Head to the website today or use your mobile device to learn more. Bet Online is where the game starts. And you're listening to the Lockdown Mariners podcast. Thank you again for making us your first listen. This is the furthest. We've made it since we started recording, I don't know, like 45 minutes ago.

So fingers crossed, this is it, folks. Fingers crossed. If you're watching this episode right now, that means we did it. So congratulations to us. All right, let's get back into these questions. Hero wants to know how positive are you that Evan White could actually earn his way back to the MLB instead of a Thai France injury? Not positive at all. But I would say this, if he does make the major league roster, it's going to be because he earned it.

It's not going to be because of a Thai France injury unless the Thai France injury is also accompanied. by a Dylan Moore injury and an A. Eugenio Suarez injury and, you know. Colin Moran. Columnarine. Yes, yes. There are quite a few guys. There are quite a few guys. Luis Terenz.

He's not even in the organization. Training for Carlos Santana again. Yeah. Evan White is pretty far back in the line. He has to prove that he has to prove that he can hit major league pitching consistently. Or not even hit. just make contact with Major League pitching consistently. First he's got to prove he can hit AAA pitching.

Yeah, that too. That too. Andy's got to prove that he can stay healthy. Right, right. Definitely rooting for him. I'm a big Evan White guy. He seems like a great dude. And obviously, you know, like the best, like Evan White, relative to his position,

might be the best defender of all time. You know, like, he might be the best first base defensive player ever. And that's fun to watch. That's really fun to watch. you just can't strike out 40% of the time. It doesn't matter how good your defense is at first base. That's not worth it. So I'm rooting for him really hard,

but right now my expectation is literally zero. If Evan White comes up and gives you anything this year, it's a huge step for him and a nice bonus for the Mariners. But yeah, he's not, I mean, like, if Thai France gets hurt on June 1st, knock on wood, and he has to miss three months. If Evan White's sit in 220 with a 35, percent strikeout rate in AAA, he's not getting called up.

Maybe for a day or two, but he's not, the mayor is just going to go get somebody. So I'm not, I'm not confident. I'm not betting on it at all. I just, I'll be pleasantly surprised if and when it happens. Yeah, it would be cool if it did. I just, I, yeah, I have no faith in that happening right now. I just, I can't, I can't. He's giving me nothing to, to put any sort of stock into right now.

And some of that is, is out of his hand. Some of that is, is well within his control. And so really this is a massive year for him Because I think if he does what you said And he's running a 220 average striking out 35% of the time Down for the Rainier's He's possibly getting DFAed Like he might be the guy that they DFA when they go acquire

The Thai France not necessarily replacement But the insurance you know He's that guy like I would put it this way like I think he can get I think he can't be a big league or a good one still I don't want to give up on him But I would put it this way way he's closer to getting DFA'd than he is playing in the majors. Agreed. Agreed.

All right. Next question comes from Elijah who asked if you could take one person from a team past or current, but it cannot be from past Mariners teams and place them on the Mariners without having to give anyone back in return. Who would it be? And why? Sincerely a reinvigorated baseball fan because of this podcast. Well, thank you, Elijah, for tuning in.

And thank you for your question. Anyone from any team ever that it just doesn't have to be a mariner? Okay. Mike Trout. Game over. 2003 Barry Bonds. Yeah, there you go. I mean, literally pick whoever you think the best player of all time is add him to the roster and he'll make it work.

So, yeah. It's pretty easy question. I think you needed to add more restrictions to this question because. Yeah. Babe Ruth, like I mean, do we have to, like, do we have to pick a specific year? Because, I mean, that makes it a little more interesting with like the Mike Trout

conversation. Do you take like 2012 Mike Trout or 2013 Mike Trout or 2018 Mike Trout? It's probably still Mike Trout. And like, are we just assuming that that player like his numbers like translate to today's game? Like if I pick 1927 Babe Ruth, is it like he's going to hit 60 home runs. He's going to hit 340. He's going to do all that. Like is that or does he's going to figure out modern day pitching? Right.

Are you giving me that caveat? Because if not, yeah, it's probably whatever year you think Trout was at his best. Yeah. So, yeah, it's not a Marin. Like, I thought the question was going to be like, which mariner player would you put? And it's like 97 Griffey. Or 96A Rod or 2000 Edgar. Yeah, honestly, 96A Rod.

Yeah, I was thinking 97 Griffey because of the left-handed element. And you kind of need the left-in-year-line right now. Left-handed element, that's right. Yeah, pick whoever you think had the best season of all time, and that's the answer. Yeah. All right. Last question before we move on. Seattle John wants to know, what will Cooper Hummel's role be?

Fifth outfielder, backup, or third string catcher, DH. He also played first and third in the minors. Could he back up there? I think you're essentially, if he makes the roster, you're essentially looking at the Austin Nolo role for him. He's going to catch a little bit. Maybe to have both Murphy and Raleigh in the lineup. He would essentially serve as your backup catcher on those days.

He'll play some corner outfield. Like you said, probably some firsts. I don't know about third. I've never seen him play third. I don't know if he can play third to be quite honest with you. So I can't answer that. But yeah, I think you'll see him play a little bit of everywhere. Maybe not second base like Austin Nola has.

But like I think you'll see him play pretty much all over the place. As long as he can hit really that's going to be the big thing for him if he can hit or if he's just such a good defender that they can't justify Sending him down or like they they feel that he's that's not a thing. Yeah, and that's not a thing. Yeah, that's not a thing. Yeah, so yeah, but yeah, I envision his role being very similar to no less just to answer your question if he makes it. I would put it like this if Hummel is going to make the team. He's going to have to do it as an outfielder who can serve as a catcher if you need him to. Sure. Yeah. Like, I don't think the ability to squat behind home plate necessarily has any value to the Mariners right now. Because that's the thing that we also need to keep in mind here, right? He's not a good catcher. No, he's probably worse than Luis Turenz if what I'm hearing is true. And I mean, like worse than like, like, somewhere between like he's probably not as bad as like early 2021, Louis Turenz.

You remember how bad he was beyond the plate? Oh. But, like, that was probably. the worst catcher defense I've ever seen, so that's not saying much. He's like a solid, like, 35 grade catcher. So he has to make it as an outfielder. And if it comes down to a tiebreaker between him and like Haggerty, you know, maybe you value the catching, but really you probably shouldn't unless Tom Murphy's not healthy.

If Tom Murphy's shoulder is still an issue, then obviously Hummel's probably the backup right now. But assuming all that is fine, you can still de age. like the whole idea like oh well you can't dh a catcher like i'm sure you can it's it's annoying if you know your catcher gets hurt and you have to use a you know you have to lose the dh for a game but it it's one game and then the next day you call up o'kee for you call up noddingham or or you call ummel so like the idea that like sure yeah the idea that and by the way can we just sign louise turenz to a minor league deal already like what is the hold up here but anyways i mean you smirk but like when Tom Murphy goes down and we're trying to pick between

Brian O'Keev and Jacob. The mayor is need another reliever in my opinion. I mean, I'm just saying. Hey, better than Diego Castillo. But yeah, that's right. You will not besmirch the name of the great DBB on here. I just did. I will not allow it.

I will turn this car around. I will in the recording. When he gets a win and catches on the same day, then I will not besmirch him. anymore but honestly Diego Diego's got the body to catch let's let's do it I'm sure he also has he also has the energy

to do it yeah that's sure um anyways how how how is Diego going to fare with the pitch clock that is going to be that's going to be one of the great storylines of 2023 I think he's going to violate it a lot but yeah Hummel's got to hit his way onto the team

and it's got to be as an outfielder I don't think the third catcher thing really adds a ton of value to his profile because he's not good at it. He's a well below average catcher. He's got a hit. He's got a hit. And he's like he has to show them that he has value in the outfield. And to have value in the outfield,

you kind of have to hit. So yeah. I would be pretty surprised, honestly, if Homo makes the opening day roster. I'd say it like that. Same. If everything that I have heard and read and seen is true about him,

then yeah. he's got a lot of ground to make up here in order for him to make the team or something has gone horrifically wrong and some injuries that we don't even want to think about have happened yeah let's just say it's good triple a depth let's put it that way let's just not think about that and move on instead but before we do so and before we go over some over unders from daisy and the dingo uh let me remind you about our sponsor for today's show built bar Looking for a delicious treat, but don't want all the fat and calories, and you've got to try a built bar. We just got through the holidays, and I know my goal is to see it a little healthier this year, and if you're like me, where you want to eat healthier, but don't want to compromise taste.

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And you're listening to the Lockdown Mariners podcast. Thank you again for making us your first listen. So Daisy and the dingo has their final topic for us today. Daisy and the dingo wants us to go over some of the steamer projections for the Mariners in 2023

and provide some and say whether we're taking the over or the under on them. So let's just go through these. I'm going to leave these up on the screen because what you're looking at is also what we're looking out. And I'm definitely going to need to keep on looking at these to remember all of them. So Colby, let's start here.

5.9 F-4 for one, Julio Rodriguez. Over, under. What are you feeling? Over. I'm going to take the slide over as well. I think he ends up like anywhere from six to six and a half. Yeah, it feels about right. Cal Raleigh, 23 home runs.

I'm taking the over on this. Yeah, I think he gets at least 25. If he gets 400 plate appearances, he's hitting 25 home runs. Agreed. 129 WRC plus for Thai France. I'm actually going to take the under on this. Same. I think he's closer to 120, 125.

Yeah, I think he goes like 118, 120, somewhere in that. range. Yeah. 25% K rate for Jared Kelnick. I'm going to take the over just because I haven't seen anything to suggest that he can get under 25%. So, yeah.

Yeah. What was Kellnick's strikeout rate last year? Let's see. Just over the course of a full season, like, again, that's also assuming that he's going to be up for a full season. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. So let's just say that.

Bold predictions here, are we? Yeah, let's assume that he stays up for a full season. season, even if he does, which would suggest that he's finding some level of success or, again, something has gone horrifically wrong for this team. But let's just go with the positive side of that, and he is

finding success. I still think there's going to be quite a bit of swing and miss in his game. So I say, like, at the very least, he's probably ended up at like 27% K-rate, something like that, if I had to guess. Probably. Yeah, I'd say over.

All right, Dylan Moore, 297 at bats not played appearances at bats i believe he only had 205 this past year and now his role is technically increasing with the team because there's the potential of a platoon with colton long but i'm going to take the under on this because that's that's a pretty significant uptick and i don't know if even if his role actually is expanding i don't know i don't know if it's going to expand enough where he's going to add like nearly another hundred at bats at the major league level yeah at bats is is kind of the thing here um because at bat to get to 300 at bats you need to play you need to start probably 65 games

um plus whatever you can scrap up you know coming off the bench and stuff like that so i'm going to go under and i really hope i'm right on this one because dillan more is getting 300 plus at bats i hope it's 20 20 more that's all i'm going to say Colton Wong 108 WRC Plus So he's hovered around 114, 115 in the last couple years Obviously there's a swing change that coincides with that

All I feel like 108 is a pretty conservative Spot for Colton I'm gonna go over though I think he gets to at least 110 I feel like that's pretty much on the nose At 108 like it might be 106 It might be 110 like I think it's

somewhere in that range. I wouldn't bet on this one. I would just skip this one, but since I'm not putting the money down, I'll take the over. Slightly. Very slight, very slight over,

yeah. Teasker Hernandez is a 251 average over. I'm hammering the over. Easiest one. Yeah, yeah. Hammering the over. He hasn't been a sub 260 guy. I don't think for at least like five.

or six years? I was like no numbers earlier today. I don't know like what they think they see in his numbers that would project him to lose you know, 20, 30 points in batting average at the age of 30. Like I don't get it. That seems really low.

A 106 WRC plus for AJ Pollock. So he was at 92 this past year. This is an overall WRC plus by the way. You're taking the over. I'm taking the over as well. I don't think. that he's a sub 100 WRC plus guy. And before Chicago, I mean, he was hanging around the 130s for the last couple of years before that. Right.

Well, and plus, I'm pretty convinced that Seattle is going to use him properly, which is almost exclusively against lefties. So I think that's going to help. That's going to help. And I think he's probably a bit better against Ritey's than he was last year because history suggests that he is. Right. Well, remember last year he was playing every single day for Chicago. He's playing every single day. And also Chicago was just a mess.

So. Right. Yeah. I'd be used properly, which I think Seattle's going to set him up to be used the way he should be. I think 110 is, I don't want to say easy, but I feel like it's 106. I think you could put it at like 115 and I'd probably still hit the over. All right. 334 ERA for Luis Castile.

I'm taking the slight under on this. I think it's around the 3-2 area. I don't like ERA. I don't like ERA either because it leaves so much up to not necessarily interpretation, but to like there's so many things that could just be out of Luis's control here that could dictate them. Luis, Luis gives up like two like slow roller swinging bunts and then the next guy comes up and he hits what could have been a double play ball, but JP has a bad exchange and you can't give you can't assume a double play.

So it's not an error. And then there's runners on first and third. And then, you know, the guy hits a medium depth fly ball to left field and the guy scores. And all of a sudden, he's giving up an earn run and nothing, none of that is, is Castillo's fault.

Like, I don't like ERA. But I'll take the slight over. Okay. Like, I think like three, four somewhere in that. I think his FIP will be better than his ERA.

You heard it here, guys. Colby thinks that Luis Castillo is going to suck in 2023. Luis Castillo, turns out, is Colby's, 2023 Dillamore. Interesting.

You better be careful, Ty, because you know what I'm going to do? When we do our prediction episode, I'm going to go first, and I'm going to predict George Kirby's wins to Salyong. I'm going to take that from you. Pain. Be careful. Be careful. The decision that I made watching Game 3 of the ALDS is,

and you're just going to steal it for me. All right. I see. Keep on talking your smack. I see how it is. I don't know how to hurt you. I'll store that in my memory banks. I'll remember.

All right. Two and a half F war for Robbie Ray. Over. Taking the over. I think he's going to be three, around three. I think Robbie Ray is going to be criminally underrated heading into the regular season. You guys heard it here first. Ty is saying Robbie Ray is going to win the Cy Young for the second time in three years.

That's exactly what I'm saying. Which is great because it gives me room to take Kirby. There you go. Lung and Gilbert, 8A4Ks per 9. That's such a weird spot. I'll take about right Yeah I'll take the slight over and just say that he'll average a k per nine like outright But that's a pretty good spot

I'll just yeah I'll take a very slight over on this one I said if we were laying down money I wouldn't put money on this prop because I feel like that's a really good line But I would I I think Gilbert Improves either the change up or the slider just enough that the strikeout rate goes up a little bit, but I don't think we're ever going to see Logan Gilbert be like a 10 K or nine guy. I think he's going to hover right around eight and a half to nine somewhere in that range. All right.

Last two here. First, 143 innings for George Kirby. Barring injury, over, over, hammering the over. Yeah, to me, that number is you're betting on an injury, which I'm not going to do. Because if he makes 30 starts, he only has to average five innings per start. Like George Kirby's going to do that. So over. Yeah, I mean, he had 130 this year.

Yeah. Like, that's not like I, the prop should probably be like 165, 170 somewhere in that range. But whatever. I mean, I don't know these aren't batting odds. These are steamer, but still, I'm looking at him as like betting odds. Last one, Matt Brash, 414 walks per nine. God, I hope not. I hope not.

I'm taking the over. You're taking the over. I'm taking the over. I think he's going to be four and a half. halfish. I cannot take the over for my boy. I have to take the under here. Rash is going to put up a 4.5 based on ball per night, but he's also going to have like a 14.5K for nine. Yeah, yeah. His ERA is going to be like 2,26 or something like that. But his tip is going to be like 389. Yeah, and his whip. And his whip is going to be over one. It's going to be like 1.2 and

you're just like, yeah. But he's going to strike out so many guys that like he'll like every every outing he'll walk one in an inning and then he'll strike out too and you're like oh okay well i'll say that he ends up in the i'll say that he ends up in the 3-7-38 range because i i just i can't i can't talk that i can't talk that about matt brash i'm sorry i think if matt brash has a 3-7 based on ball for nine he's like a one and a half to two-win reliever yeah he might be like pushing for all-star votes at that point i mean if if brash basically if brash does everything he did last year, but he cuts his walk rate down to like 3-7,

he's probably the best reliever in this bullpen, which considering you have Andres Munoz Munoz is pretty high on her. Yeah, agreed. And now our faces are back. But that is going to do it for our show. So goodbye, folks. Thank you so much for tuning in to the Lockdown Mariners podcast.

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