Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Mailbag: Japanese-Born Players, Being Wary of the Angels and More

Episode Date: November 22, 2021

On this week's Mailbag Monday, hosts Ty Dane Gonzalez and Colby Patnode answer several Mariners questions. Topics include Seattle's streak of 20-plus years of having a Japanese-born player on their roster and if that will impact their pursuit of free agent outfielder Seiya Suzuki, if Mariners fans should be wary of the Angels and more.Be sure to follow or subscribe to Locked On Mariners wherever you prefer your podcasts! For questions and other inquiries, email: [e-mail] the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @danegnzlz | @CPat11For more of Ty and Colby, check out their Patreon: patreon.com/controlthezone/Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You are Locked-on Mariners, your daily Seattle Mariners podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome to Locked-on Mariners, your home for Daily Seattle Mariner's News and Analysis. Thank you so much for making us your first listen of the day, just like you do here every day. We greatly appreciate the support. Of course, we are free and available on all platforms, so be sure to tell you friends, family, all those you know out there who are Mariners fans, come check us out if they

haven't already. And today is Monday, November 22nd, 2021. I am your host, Tidane Gonzalez, joined as always by my co-host Colby Patnode. Follow us on Twitter at L-O-U-U-U-N-R-Rer-N-Rer-S. You can follow me at D-A-N-Z-L-Z and Colby at C-P-A-L-E-N-E-N-E-B-A-T-A-L-E-L-E-T-L-E-L-E-R-E-T-A-T-E-R-E-L-A-T-R-E-E-R-E-E-L-A-R-E. Visit Patreon.com for it slash controlled zone for more information on that. If you're interested on today's episode of Lockdown Mariner's, it's our weekly mailbag because Jerry DePoto still hasn't done anything. So we're staying in rotation here. You send us your Mariners questions via Twitter and email,

and we're going to answer them on today's show. So if you like what you hear, give the show a follow or subscribe wherever you're listening to this. We greatly appreciate it. We're going to start with a question that we got via email last week from Travis Hillary, who asked, thinking about the Mariners' interest in signing, Sayas Suzuki, reminded me that Seattle has had at least one Japanese-born player on their roster every year going back 20-plus years.

With Yusei Kukuchi now gone, how much do you believe this affects the Mariners' aggressiveness in acquiring Suzuki or another Japanese-born player? Thanks for the show. I always look forward to it. Good stuff. Thank you for the question, Travis. So Colby, what do you think about Travis's question? There's no impact.

In terms of like, is Seattle desperate to have a Japanese born player on their roster? No, no, they're not. And when you consider it the players that they had, I mean, you're looking at Ichiro and then Iwakuma. And then, of course, Yusakuchi, I believe Mu and Orakowasaki was in there as well. No, they don't, they're not out to try and make sure that they have to keep that streak alive. Does losing Kukuchi hurt in their pursuit of Suzuki? I don't think it does. I don't know for sure, but the fact that Seattle has had a Japanese player

and they've done a pretty good job of acclimating them to Major League Baseball for the past two decades, certainly helps Seattle. Does the fact that Kukuchi walked away hurt them? No, I don't think it does. And I don't think, you know, ownership is, is, desperate to have a Japanese-born player on their roster. So I don't think it makes all that big of a difference. Well, Nintendo of America only makes up 10% of the ownership now.

There isn't going to be an overwhelming amount of pressure to sign any Japanese-born player, really. At least there shouldn't be. It really ultimately comes down to the fit, and Sayas Suzuki does fit what they need. And I think they're going to be pretty aggressive in his market. don't think it's just because of or it's because of him being born in Japan. It's about the upside, really. It's about the upside of the player. It's about potentially buying low on a young, really talented player that's coming from overseas. One of the few that is coming over. And so, yeah, I think that's really all that it comes down to. I don't think there's any other external

factors playing into their interest in Sayas Suzuki this year. So thank you again for the question, Travis. Appreciate it. But yeah, I think really the only thing driving that interest from the Mariners is the upside of the player. So we're going to move over to Twitter here. And remember, you can send us questions via email at Lockdown Mariners at gmail.com. But you can also send us questions, of course, at L.O. underscore Mariners on Twitter.

And this one comes from at Murmurs. merners, Seattle Murners on Twitter, who asks, are there incentives for free agents themselves to sign before the CBA expires? It seems like the incentives to sign before December 1st would be favoring the general managers, waiting until there's a new agreement would put pressure on the team's side, which would favor free agents. Am I off base on this? Colby?

It kind of depends on how well you think the players are going to do in the next round. of negotiations. Is there a benefit to signing before? Yeah, there is for some free agents. For example, some want to know where they're going so that they can find housing. They can set their kids up at the right school. They can, you know, learn the area. So there is going to be a benefit to signing early there.

There's a chance if you don't sign by December 1st that you're not going to sign or even be able to sign until late January or February. a couple of weeks before spring training is supposed to start, that comes with issues. So there are some real world benefits to signing early and getting to where you're going to be as early as possible. So if the players think they can do significantly better in this round of CBA negotiations, like there's going to be a salary floor

and no drop in the payroll tax, which is not a guarantee, then maybe you can wait. but I think right now it's it's kind of a disadvantage to both the players and the GMs. Because the GMs don't want to feel like they're being pushed into doing something. They're not quite sure they want to do just because of this deadline. And the players, again, do they really want to sit around and just wait and to see where they're going to spend next year, a vast majority of next year?

Do they want to get, you know, into the city and find housing? And again, not that it's super hard for them to do so. but you know, you do want to get your family set up. Yeah, and also you don't want to get lost in the crowd of a rapid free agency market, which is bound to happen. That's going to be the nature of that market when it comes to February and March and whenever it gets started. So you don't want to lose out on value, on potential dollars by being one of a hundred, you know, one of 150 guys that are that are going to sign.

You know, you will get lost in that crowd, especially if you're on the back end of that market. If you're not one of the top guys like a Marcus Simeon or whatever. And, you know, and also if you are someone like Simeon, the argument for them signing beforehand as well is pretty much what you said, Colby, to kind of understand the fit, to understand where you're going to be, to prepare with that mindset.

and yeah, I think that's going to be, you know, having that security is going to be a huge thing for maybe a couple of the bigger names that we see signed in the next 10 days or so. But yeah, overall, I think for free agents, especially the middle tier, just you don't want to get lost on that crowd. So if you make it past December 1st unsigned and lockout happens, there's got to be at least a little bit of anxiety about how much. value you potentially lost. Yeah, I mean, you don't want to be a bargain. And after the lockout ends, there are going to be quite a few bargains to be had. Because like his free agency is going to happen in a hurry. And the guys like Andrew McCutcheons and Jonathan VRs and Tommy Fams,

these mid-tierish free agents back into the mid-tier free agents, they're going to have to take one year $3 million deals. there are going to be deals like that made after the lockout ends. So the incentive is to not become a bargain. And like you said, if you're Simeon, you're fine either way. But if you're one of those mid-tier guys, you're running the risk that you're going to lose money by not taking the deal now. All right. One last question here from Aiden at SFNE 58 on Twitter here before we hop over to our next segment.

should we see the angels as a threat next year since they signed nois cindergarde and the team would be mostly healthy i think really the thing with the angels uh is that i mean you got to always be wary of them because there is such an immense amount of talent on that roster with with trout and rindon and otani etc um but for me it's just you know i'll believe it when i see it with the angels the angels despite having all that talent have yet to finish above 500 since Jerry Depoto left six years ago. So I, again, I'll believe it when I see it in terms of them being successful. But you always, you know, you do have to be wary of them because of the talent that they have. Ultimately, though, I don't think Sendergarde moves the needle really for them.

I'm concerned about that signing, as we've talked about on previous shows. Yeah, you know, part of the reason why they're. They have so many injuries as well, A, for the pitching side of things, it's just kind of what they do. They're kind of notorious for, you know, having a lot of pitching injuries. And B, they're older. They're an older club. You know, they're not super old, but Troutts played a lot of baseball. Rendon's played a lot of baseball.

Upton's played a lot of baseball. These guys are going to wear down. We've already seen it. So, yeah, I'm not super worried about the Angels yet. Talented, yes. And you never know. It might all click for them one year. And if it does, then they'll be dangerous.

but I'll believe that when it actually happens because right now I have zero zero confidence that the angels are competent enough to make their talent match their record. All right. More questions on the way in just a moment, but real quick a reminder of this episode of Lockdown Mariners is brought to you by DirecTV. Does this sound familiar? You've got one device that lets you catch the game live, another that lets you stream your favorite shows. You're watching sports highlights on your phone and you've got your name. neighbors best friends log in for the good stuff. Well, I want to tell you about a simple way to get all that entertainment you love without the hassle

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That's directtv.com. Compatible device required. Content varies by package. You're listening to Lockdown Mariners. Thank you again for making us your first listen of the day, just like you do every day. We greatly appreciate the support once again. Let's get on to more questions here,

starting with Jordan Levitt at Mormon Pizza Man, who's got a fun one here. Compare current Mariner players to nostalgic cartoon characters. obviously don't want to spend too much time on this, but let's have some fun here. Colby, any, any,

any, uh, comparisons that come to mind. Not really. It's kind of a question that's a way out of left field and we would typically tackle on our, uh, CTZ show,

um, typically on days like today when we were bored and the Seahawks gave us nothing and the mariners have given us nothing so far. Um, no, you know, it's, it's,

I don't really see any, uh, any obvious comparison. Maybe I'm missing something, but I mean, I don't know. Did you? Did you find any? Yeah, I tried to think about this one last night a little bit when it came in. And I don't know.

This is a lot harder to do than the Avengers one. We did. It feels a lot easier to do the Avengers. I'm trying to think. Scott's service is the grandpa from Hey Arnold. Grandpa Phil. Okay. sure sure um yeah you know it's uh tom murphy is helga from hey arnold

why why just just mean and crazy at the same time uh yeah i got i got nothing so this is a difficult question jordan that you need to give us more than you know six hours notice on Yeah, well, to be fair, I completely forgot about this question until we hit record today. I didn't even think about this at all this morning. There's so many different characters in those shows. You know what I like? So, I mean, yeah, I don't know. Maybe maybe come back on Friday.

Or Jordan subscribe to the Control of Zone podcast on Patreon. Maybe we could flush it out a little bit more there. Yeah, we'll try to come up with a better answer on CTZ. How about that? So sorry about that Jordan Let's let's move on here to at Seattle SOG Over under 2 and a half signings on November 30th

So on November 30th I'm gonna go under Specifically on the 30th under Wait I mean I'm assuming you mean Mariners signings Yeah Since we are a Mariners show Maybe not I don't know Are you talking major like

baseball I'll say over. If you're talking the Mariners, I'll take the under. I'm still going to say under. If you meant two and a half signings by November 30th, I'll still take the under. But on November 30th,

I'm definitely taking the under. I'm feeling pretty good about it. I don't think there's going to be this massive whirlwind of moves like everyone thinks there will be. I think it's going to be more streamlined over the course of the next eight days. Yeah. I don't,

I don't think there's it's going to be this like huge you know just slew of moves in the in the final hours leading up to the to the lockout so uh thank you for the question at seattle sog appreciate it let's go to a couple questions here from camy boy at camy boy underscore um who has a who has a who has a couple questions about marcus simeon the first being if simeon is not the guy at second base and he gets signed by another squad who are we looking at for who are we looking at next for second base. So there's some interesting options here.

Chris Taylor, former Mariner, of course, is one that probably jumps out to a lot of people. Josh Harrison, solid second baseman as well. There's obviously the option of just keep an Abraham Toro there and sign in a third baseman or trading for a third baseman. There's also the idea that we had in our off-season plan, which was trading for Jeff McNeil of the Mets. There's quite a few different ways you can go about it,

Eduardo Escobar is another guy. So there's certainly options. The Mariners are not necessarily screwed if they lose out on Simeon. They're definitely not going to be able to get a player that's close to the level what Simeon is, of course, at second base. A couple, you know, if you're looking for a trade route, Brandon Lowe is an interesting guy. Also, Joey Wendell, his teammate from Tampa,

makes a lot of sense. So, yeah, they have options. ultimately it's probably not somebody we're even thinking of it's going to be somebody like Kevin Newman or somebody like that but maybe Adam Frazier depending on what the what else the Padres do but yeah there's going to be options out there and don't think that you know the Mariners aren't don't have a plan B C D but it definitely does feel like Simeon is plan A the second question from Cammy Boy asks how do you feel about the Simeon and

Rangers news. So the news saying that the Rangers are interested in Marcus Simeon. I don't, yeah, I don't buy it either. Well, I don't buy it. I should say I think the Rangers are probably interested in Simeon. I don't think Simeon would have any interest in them.

Yeah. Unless the only interest he's going to show on them is that they severely overpay for him for his services. They're there. And that would have to be on a level that's pretty similar to what the Mariners gave Robinson can know, honestly, to convince him to forego playing for a winning team

to go play for the Rangers who were one of the worst teams of baseball this past year. And I mean, like the only thing they can do is they can overpay him and they can let him play shortstop. But assuming they're not willing to like blow him out of the water in terms of salary, what everybody else is, why would he pick the Rangers over Seattle, over Toronto, over San Francisco,

over the Dodgers, over the Padres, over, you know, Boston, like, why would he pick the Rangers over Houston even? Like, why would he pick the Rangers over those teams? Yeah. There's only one reason. And that is if they give him, like, seven years and $230 million. I just, I doubt that that's what they're going to do. So I don't really buy it.

And if they do do that, by the way, go ahead and laugh at their face because that's going to be a lot of wasted money because they're not going to be good for a while. Yeah, I mean, like at that point, It's just like, okay, and fine, whatever. You know, only so much that. Yeah, only so much that Jerry DePoto and any other team that was interested in him could do. So, yeah, you just kind of wash your hands of that and move on. And like we said, there are definitely other options. And you can, you know, get someone who's closer to Simeon's value at third base, right?

Or maybe you go after Trevor's story to play second base or whatever. There's tons of options. So no need to worry about that. So let's answer one more question here before we hop on to our next segment from at Dirty Durham. And this one is going to be pretty quick to answer here. They say I know I'm buying in way too much into show Hey, O'Tonni's I want to win comments last season. But if we need bats and pitching, is there any scenario where the Mariners, could trade for Otani.

Trade simulators, our favorite, baseball trade values.com, of course. And we got a screenshot here from baseball trade values.com included in this tweet. Trade simulators in reality don't always align. So I acknowledge my example may be flawed. Ha ha. I realize that we would have to pry Otani from the Angels,

but he seems to address two needs with one player and just haven't heard anyone entertain this idea, perhaps because it's absolutely nuts. You wouldn't be wrong. Also worth noting, I simply tried to match value to get the trade to work. And the trade is his trade proposal or their trade proposal, rather, is Logan Gilbert and Jerry Kellnick to the Angels for Shohei Otani. Trade stimulators wrong as it usually is. The Angels aren't going to trade Otani.

Not this winter. No way. They just pour $21 million in the Noah Cindergarde. They're not trading him. So it's not even really working. They're also discussion. Yeah. They're also never just, they're never going to trade Otani.

No. If you want Otani, you got to wait two years until he's a free agent. And then back up the bring struck. Yeah. We're legit. Otani probably assuming that he's like even 80% of what he was this year for the next two years. He's probably getting $500 million. So.

Yeah. He's, depending on how the CBA goes. but yeah, no. And honestly, if you're Seattle, I don't, like, I don't even know if it makes sense to trade Gilbert and Kelnick for Otani. Not that, obviously, that's not a, you know,

that's an underpay. I'm not saying it's not, but it's just two more spots you got to go fill. And Otani doesn't fill both of those spots. And those are two spots that are being filled right now by a guy who's making nothing, two guys who are making nothing. And you have them for another six years.

just just no all the way around no but credit for the for the unique idea uh there seems to be a lot of those running around on twitter the last few days but uh like I said always give credit for the unique idea but on uh this was fan fiction Friday I'd probably give that like a 25 yeah um sorry dirty Durham, but unfortunately, your dream will not be a reality. Talk to us again in 2024. Things can change. Or 2023. So we got more questions coming up in just a moment, but real quick, want to remind you, this

episode of Locked Out Mariners is also brought to you by Bilt Bar. I love Thanksgiving, all of the good food and treats, and plenty of them to go around. But maybe you want a yummy dessert, one that isn't so full of calories and sugar. Well, it's the perfect time for Bilt Bars. Bilt Bar is the new holiday dessert. Feast on something delicious and feel good about it for once. One slice of pie has an upwards of 300 calories, and that's on the low end if you're lucky. Meanwhile, most Bilt Bars are only 130 calories and only 4 grams of sugar with plenty of protein.

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Go to built.com. use promo code locked 15 and you'll get 15% off your order. That's LOC, KED 1-5 for 15% off your order at build.com. All right, time for some more questions here. We're not going to be able to get to every single one of them on today's show. You sent a lot of them this week, especially Daisy Dingo, who sent like six. We're going to try to get to at least like two of those. We'll see.

We'll see how much how well we do for time. Let's start with Keith's T's, however, at Keith's T's. Keith asks, for Sayas Suzuki is the biggest hurdle to landing him this concocted narrative of an outfield log jam. Outside of playing time, any guesses on what might be the selling points to him. Well, the first of which being there isn't an outfield logjam. He would have a very good opportunity to play 120, 130, maybe even more games in Seattle this year, depending on how he plays. Yeah, there's there's no issue. with that. So, I mean, I don't think the, I mean, maybe the, his camp has some concerns over that,

but the Mariners are going to quickly tell him that that's not the case. So I think at that point, that all gets eliminated, right, Coley? Yeah, there is no outfield dog jam. And Suzuki's not, not dumb. He's not going to think there is one. So, uh, yeah, it's, if Sayas Suzuki demands 500 played appearances with his performance, then he's going to get 500. Uh, there's just really no doubt about that. So nope, not an issue. Yep. All right. Thanks for the question.

Keith. Moving on to Cody Anderson here at Code Al 12. How high is Julio Rodriguez's ceiling to you? Dare I ask, might he be the Mariners next Griffey? Well, the Mariners organization certainly think so. I think that's pretty clear. Now, will he actually be that? Yeah.

I don't think anyone should say that definitively. but I think Julio's ceiling is very high. We were asked what last mailbag Monday where we see him in five years. I legitimately think he could be a perennial MVP candidate. I think that's the type of player that we're talking about. I don't know if he's

actually going to get there. Griffey's probably a bit too much to ask of anybody. Not that you are asking, but if he's going to be Griffey, but why can't he just have the same impact that like Nelson Cruz had only be good in the outfield?

wouldn't that be plenty good enough? So I continue to compare Julio to Nelson Cruz. That's a comp I really like. But with more deepness. Remember that swing that he had? Yep. Remember that swing that he had?

I know exactly what you're talking about. Yeah, you know exactly what I was talking about. Yeah, like I think it was back of May or something. It looked exactly like Nelson Cruz. Yeah. I really hit it. He hit the ball to like deep center. It was one of those, you know, just line drive.

missiles Nelson Cruz became plenty famous for her. I think I think Julio's ceiling is Nelson Cruz at his prime which is what 40 home runs 280 380 on base 600 slugging but with a defense

on top of it with at least average right field defense yeah yeah I think that's probably what it is to be honest and that is that's fantastic that's a very good blur all right moving on to Harry Depoto and thanks again for the the question Cody Harry depoto at H. DePoto asks

well they actually asked this question during my AMA yesterday but I wasn't able to really answer it within the 280 characters so we're going to answer it on here what's just what statistically are the parameters that makes a starting pitcher a one two three four or five which you guys often refer to when talking about starting pitchers. Are there some examples for numbers?

So, you know, yesterday, I use the example of like, you know, for a number three, a number three to me is like a 20 is like 20, Luis Castillo, Jose Barrios. Like, and we're always using these numbers when we're saying like this guy's a number two, this is a number three. That's what they would be in a good rotation, right?

Like that's what their true form is. And a good rotation, this guy is like a number three. That's what his ceiling is. So for for me, that's a, that's a guy that has a, um, a FIP with between 3.5 and 4 and like, and averages a little over a K per nine or nine case per nine. Is that about the same for you, Colby? Yeah. Um, I don't know.

For me, it's, it's more about, you know, I don't have like statistical like checkpoints that you have to hit. Um, that's generally a pretty good place. like you said, Burrios and Castillo, I think, are really good number threes. And, you know, probably they, they can look like number two's for extended stretches. And every once in a while, they are, they are dominant like a number one. But for the most part, they're just good every time out. Yeah, it's, you know, ace, I differentiate between aces and number ones, like Scherzer is an ace. But.

DeGrom. Yeah. Yeah, de Grom's an ace. Scherzer is an ace. Berlander in his prime was an ace. Whereas guys like David Price in his prime were probably just ones. So, yeah, it's all kind of just, you know, make up your own identifiers. But, and they all have qualifiers. Like you could be a light three or you could be a strong three.

Right. But yeah, it's typically. typically like I always use the I always use the term like high in three low end two right like when it wouldn't referencing a certain pitcher you know this guy could be you know he could which means like he'll flash number two stuff and maybe even some number one stuff at times but he's typically a really good number three. And that kind of goes back to the Luis Castillo thing. And really why I talk about the number three stuff is because that's the middle ground here. So think about anyone who you would consider to be in that higher tier than that pitcher. You know, so let's say you think Lucas Gialito and Sandy Alcantra and those guys are above Luis Castillo, but they're not exactly, you know, Max Scherzer.

Right. So those guys, those guys would be, you know, high-end twos to number ones. Robbie Ray is another example potentially, right? You know, Frankie Montas, those guys. Yeah. I just, you know, like James Paxson and his prime was a strong three. But yeah, it's just more about feel and understanding and just, you know, to me, a number three is an above average major league pitcher, major league starter.

So number four is about average and number five is fringe average. Yeah, I agree. All right. So let's, and thank you, by the way, for the question, Harry DePoto. let's answer a couple of Daisy Dingo's questions here before we hop off. Like I said, we're not going to be able to get to all of these. Just a lot. But we're going to get to a couple of these.

Max contract that you two would be comfortable giving to Chris Bryant. 5120. 5120. That would be 24 A.V. To Chris Bryant? Yeah. Probably. That's about right.

The max I'd be willing to do. Probably something like 6 and 130 at the max. And that's like, please don't do that. But if they did, I'd be like, okay, I guess I kind of get it. All right. Let's answer one more here. Name one to two big leaguers and three to four prospects in the Mariners system that you think the A's would have the most interest in and why. Abraham Toro, Kyle Lewis, probably also Luis Torens be thrown in there for the big leaguers.

But I think it's pretty obvious why Toro with his versatility and obviously the data guys love him. And, you know, Lewis, of course, you know, the upside of that. And as for prospects, I don't know, probably all of them, right? like to a certain degree Emerson Hancock Brandon Williamson probably a lot of the pitchers

that's probably going to be number one but I could see them being into you know guys like Jonathan Clause Victor LaBrata really no one's off the

off the table with the A's I think I think they would like a lot of the guys that are in the Mariners system I would agree I think those are probably the guys

obviously anybody in the farm system and then yeah Lewis I could see them if they traded if they traded Matt Olson I could see them liking Evan White I just don't think there would be a lot of value there so I'd throw him on there but I just I don't think there's going to be much

I think they'd be interested I just don't think it would they would make a deal that would make sense for the Mariners to give up on Evan White already yeah yeah all right well that's going to do it for our show want to thank you again for sending all of your questions we really appreciate it and uh hope you guys enjoyed listening to today's show thank you for joining us here on lockdown mariners for colby pat node i'm ty dan gonzalez be sure to give us a follow on twitter at l o underscore mariners you can follow me at dane gnzzz and colby at c pat 11 that's c pat 1 1 you can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode and thank you again for making us your first listen of the day every day. We'll be back tomorrow and hopefully Jerry Napoto has done something, but I'm not holding my breath anymore.

We'll just see when it happens, if it happens. Starting to run out of time though, Jared Bear. Let's get it going here. Now make your second list of the day locked on bets, your daily one-stop shop for all your gambling needs. Locked on bets hosted by your boy Q with expert analysis and insight from Lee Sterling. Just like us, their show is free and available wherever you get your podcasts. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day and we'll see you tomorrow.