Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Mailbag: Josh Naylor Now on the Mariners' Rdar?

Episode Date: December 11, 2023

It's Mailbag Monday! Ty and Colby answer some of your Mariners questions, including what the difference between the Mariners trading Marco Gonzales and Evan White and the Braves trading both of those players is, who will take a bigger step forward in 2024 between Logan Gilbert and George Kirby, the Mariners' reported interest in Josh Naylor, and more.Follow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @TyDaneGonzalez | @CPat11Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!Jase MedicalGet $20 off these lifesaving antibiotics with Jase Medical by using code LOCKEDON at checkout on jasemedical.com.FanDuelScore early this NFL season with FanDuel, America’s Number One Sportsbook! Right now, NEW customers get ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY DOLLARS in BONUS BETS with any winning FIVE DOLLAR MONEYLINE BET! That’s A HUNDRED AND FIFTY BUCKS – if your team wins! Visit FanDuel.com/LOCKEDON to get started.FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Otani is signed, but the rest of the market is pretty quiet still. There really isn't anything new going on in the world of the Mariners. So what do you guys want to talk about? I answer some of your questions coming up here on mailbag Monday. Colby, hit it. You are Locked on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day.

Ahoy, sailors. It is Monday, December 11th, 2023. This is Tedding is awesome. Colby Patton Head for the Lockdown Marers podcast, brought to you by Fandwell. Make every moment more. Right now, new customers get $150 in bonus bets with any winning $5 money line bet. That's $150 if your team wins. Visit fanduel.com slash locked on.

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You can now get a free seven-day trial to check out the show. The link, as well as our social accounts, is in the description of this episode. It is Mailbag Monday, the show where we answer your Mariners questions, and we're going to start here with Patrick, who wants to know what the Braves now trading away both Marco Gonzalez and Evan White rather painlessly. Why couldn't the M's have done the same thing? Was it really necessary to trade away Kelnik? Why couldn't they have made similar trades?

The Braves did. two very different situations between the Braves and the Mariners and how both of those teams handled trading away the contracts of both Marco Gonzalez and Evan White. The Mariners rid themselves of pretty much the entirety of both of those contracts, save for the $4.5 million they sent to Atlanta in those deals. Meanwhile, the Braves actually ended up taking on salary from the Angels when they traded Evan White to Anaheim and took on the contracts of Max Stasi and David Fassie. Fletcher. That's about $6 million more in 2024 and about three to three and a half million dollars more

from now through 2026 when you factor in. White's guaranteed 2025 salary and his buyout in 2026. And then Fletcher's guaranteed salary in 2025 and his buyout in 2026. The Braves did turn around and flip Max Stacey to the White Sox, but because they didn't take anyone back who's making money. I would assume that they are paying most of, if not that entire contract on Stasi. And when they traded Marco to the pirates, there was a report that they did include cash in that deal. Some conflicting reports about how much that is. I've heard anywhere from the entirety of the contract to about half. Let's split the difference and just say that they're paying most of it. Right. So very two different situations here where the Mariners, the value of the deal and why they had to attach

Kellnick to it was because they needed to shed payroll. They needed to free payroll. For the Braves, the Braves just didn't see Marco as a fit for their 26-man roster and didn't want Evan White on their 40-man roster. And they ended up flipping those guys and paying for them to essentially go away and take on players that they would rather have like David Fletcher, for example. Now, maybe they still flip Fletcher like they did with Stassie, but they're doing a lot of roster turning over there, but very, very different situations. For the Mariners, it was just, they weren't, it wasn't about trading the players away. It was about trading the money away, whereas for the Braves, it was about trading the players away rather than the money.

Right. You know, Seattle trading Marco like the Braves did or trading Evan White like like the Braves did, that wouldn't have helped them reach their goal. Their goal was to shed the contracts. You have to eat all of or most of Marco's contract to trade him to the pirates. You're not saving money. You're saving what, $2 million?

That helps, but you're also not getting a player out of it. You trade Evan White to the angels. You're not getting just David Fletcher. The reason that the angels took that deal is because that they were also shedding Stassie's contract. So you're adding, $7 million just to get rid of a $7 million contract. It doesn't make sense.

The math doesn't math. So two teams with two different goals, essentially, making two completely different style trades. Yeah, that's how it works. Unfortunately, you know, the front office is in a position where they have to value the financial flexibility over getting full value for the player that they traded. So, you know, essentially what the, what the Braves did is, is they bought Jared Kow. Elnick for $13 million, and then they bought, they bought David Fletcher for, I don't know, like $9 million or something like that. That's basically what they did. So, yeah, I don't, the idea that the Braves school the Mariners on how to do this, no, because of the Mariners just wanted Marco off the 26th man, they would have made a deal just like this, but they wanted to get rid of the contract.

That was the big thing for them. So, yeah, just two different teams with two different goals. and as a result, you have two different processes. That's just how it works. So, yeah, I mean, at the end of the day, the difference is the Braves wanted the players. The Mariners needed the money. So it's unfortunate that's the way it is, but that's the way it was, and that's why the trades look really different. Right.

The Braves did not own the Mariners, which is kind of the misconception on Twitter. The Mariners own the Mariners because the Mariners are cheap. So that's just what it boils. down to. Thanks, John. Yeah. Next question here on Mailbag Monday comes from Christian in an effort to avoid full nihilism since it's only

checks notes December and we've got a lot of offseason left. Thank you, Christian first of all, for your perspective. I appreciate it. It's a breath of fresh air. Christian says two parts. Who takes a bigger step forward next season between Walter and Furious George and who takes a bigger

step between Wu and Miller? It's a terrible nickname for George Kirby. What's a better nickname for George? How about just George Kirby? I like Jorge. I like calling him Jorge. I mean, like whatever. Which isn't really a nickname. That's just George.

But I like Jorge. Horace solid. Whatever. Apparently he's at the Renaissance Fair today. But yeah, I don't know. I don't know what you call him. How about we just call him by his name? Um, you're no fun at all. I just like, I don't like bad nicknames.

Furious George is a bad one. Let's just call it what it is. Well, he just doesn't really come off as furious to me. No. Like, is that maybe in reference to when like they put them back out there in Tampa? I don't know. It's, it's not like, it's not like angry Doug Baldwin, you know. No.

No. So, um, yeah, I just, I don't like bad nick. Like, if you don't have a good nickname for. somebody. I'm just not going to call them that. Sure. Get out of here. That's bad. That's bad. You know it. Let's answer the question. Gilbert, uh, because he has more, you know, more room to grow than than Kirby.

If Kirby just puts up the, the season he did every year for the rest of his career, he's a Hall of Famer. Like, like, I just like, I feel like expecting him to take yet another step. I don't know. I think there. I mean, I, I, I, I, I, I, I think there are ways that he can take a step forward to induce more swing and miss and also kind of counteract the overly aggressive game plans from teams. And I feel like Gilbert's step forward season, like his big step forward season was 23.

And now it's more just about building on that because like he had to refine his repertoire. And I feel like he did that in 2023. Now it's just kind of building on top of that. I hear you. and yet I don't care because I completely disagree. All right. Why do you disagree? Because I,

because that's my job mostly. Right, right, right. I have a brand to protect Thai. I'm like the Mariners who are just naming people furious George. Like that's a good idea. Yeah. So I just,

who takes the bigger step? I'm going with Logan because I feel like he has a larger step to take than George. So yeah, you know, obviously there are things George can fix the, you know, inducing more swing and miss is a big one, not being like basically every time that that George has been like crushed, it's been the same game plan. So how do you counteract that? That's something that you can take a step forward with. For Gilbert, it's more about just the package overall. Like can you be more consistent with the splitter? Can you find a breaking ball that is someone consistent?

And if you compare even like a half a grade up on the slider would make a world of difference for for Logan because he throws plenty of strikes. So I think it's just about Gilbert just kind of refining that breaking ball a little bit. And I think he can take a huge step. Like he doesn't have to come up with a new pitch like he did the winter before. The fastball splitter combo is going to work for him so long as he can get the splitter near the strike zone. But if you can add a breaking ball, something that moves away from Ritey's. and into lefties. And then I think he could really, you know, jump up and be a 10K per nine guy and,

you know, two and a half base on ball per nine and be a five win pitcher. I think he can do that with just a small tweak. I'm not sure what George is going to do to counteract his issues because he hasn't necessarily learned a new pitch. Like, I mean, he threw the knuckleball. But like Gilbert. And obviously that's going to carry over into 2024 and his now a weapon for. him. But I mean like Gilbert basically

decided, oh yeah, I'm going to throw a splitter last winter and he brought it into the big leagues immediately and it was a good pitch right away. Which is also going to be the case for Bryce Miller, of course. Sure. But yeah, I guess I would say I'd say Gilbert just because he's got a bigger step to take

to reach his ceiling. I think, whereas I feel like George is pretty close to his ceiling. But there obviously there is still another step. Right. the Miller and Wu I think it's Miller He's just further along Woo

And obviously still has a ton of room to grow But he's just a little bit further along Than Woo is And Wu is still They still might have to watch him With his with his Endings count His pitch count

Over the course of the year So I mean because again This guy is not that far removed From Tommy John's surgery And he hasn't thrown a lot of professional innings in general, not just at the major league level, but just in professional baseball as a whole.

So I think they're going to have to keep an eye on him. And there's, you know, there's no guarantee that he is going to be part of this rotation by season's end. He might end up going as a bullpen or they might have to shut him down again or he might end up in AAA. Who knows?

Still really, really high on Brian Wu, don't get me wrong. And I think he's going to be a very good pitcher in the future. But, uh, yeah, as of 2024, I think there's still a lot of question marks with Wu. And I think with Miller, there's just far fewer question marks.

And, you know, we'll see, we'll see, you know, how he approaches, you know, like Gilbert refining his repertoire as a whole. Not because, like, he's just, he's not going to be able to just survive on that fastball. It'll work for him some starts, but over the course of a full season, especially now that the league has more of a book on him, he's going to need something to keep headers off balance. So it's going to be a big offseason for Miller. But I think there's definitely an easier path to see there for him to take a big step forward than Wu right now, in my opinion. Yeah, I think for 2024, it's Miller just because he should be ready to go. He should be able to give you 170 innings next year.

And Wu, we just don't know. If you ask me, like, who has more upside in their entire career for the rest of their career, assuming they both stay relatively healthy. I might pick Brian Wu because that fastball is, I think you can make an argument it's better than Miller's for different reasons. So I think it's going to be kind of, yeah, I think it just kind of is becoming a race of whoever can develop that primary, secondary quicker.

Yeah. Like that's going to be the more valuable player. So at least we've seen a decent slider from, from Miller in the past. So I guess I'd give him the edge. But if there's like if if if who comes back in his spring training, he's got a 55 slider like with his four seam and two seam, that's mid rotation right there for as many innings as he can give you.

So both these guys are really just one pitch away from jumping into being a number three starter for a lot of teams. Agreed. Agreed. More questions coming up here on mailbag Monday. But first, a reminder of this episode of the Lockedom Airs podcast is brought to you by Fandul. Score early this NFL season with Fandul, America's number one sportsbook. Right now, new customers get $150 in bonus bets with any winning $5 money line bet.

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Fandwell, official partner of the National Football League. But are the Seahawks and Cracken really playing right now? Really? Are they? Are they? They are taking the field. yield. That is all I can say about them. You're listening to the Lockdown

Marys podcast. Thank you again for making us your first listen here on Mailbag Monday. And as a reminder, Lockdown has launched the first ever national sports 24-7 streaming channel on YouTube. Locked-on Sports Today is here for you 24-7 covering the top sports stories of the day with the local experts of Locked-on

plus our national shows covering every league. Get a locked-on sports today on YouTube and subscribe to the first-ever national sports 24-7 streaming channel, part of the Lockdown podcast network, your team, every day. And also a reminder that we are now at three shows a week here on Lockdown errors for the next couple months, pretty much until Pitchers and Catchers report in mid-February. We'll be posting episodes Monday, Wednesday, and Friday here on

locked on. We will be moving our Patreon shows to Tuesday and Thursday during that time as well. So we and I are just recording once a day. But don't fret if there is a move that happens on a Tuesday, Thursday, or on the weekend, we will do an emergency show. And lastly, question of the day, what is the best NBC mockumentary? Is it the office or is it parks and recreation? Let us know in the comments below. Let us know in the chat. Totality parks and rec.

Best like just highest quality at their best, the office. Yeah, yeah. Peak office. but consistency yeah consistency goes to parks and rec yeah for sure yep

all right Daisy and the dingo wants to know seeing how dismal T-Mobile Park ranks in the baseball savant park factors could you ever see the team changing any of the field dimensions to try to bring it back closer to a neutral field would there be any

incentive for them to do so uh I mean they did that in the past with the left field wall they brought that in and there was a time where that did help things but recently I mean this year this past year it was the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in all of baseball so um they could do that will they do that I don't think so what is the point of doing that yeah because look because like yeah it makes it more attractive for hitters but then now it's less attractive for pitchers and less favorable for pitchers.

You know, so it just, you're just kind of adjusting a slider. You're just adjusting the slider and like, you know, it's one thing is going to get worse while one thing gets better. So is it really like, is that actually worth it to you? Yeah. One thing you can't really control either is the weather.

Yeah. It's cold. It's windy. It's wet. And, you know, March, April and May. That's just the way it is.

So, um, I don't see. much of a benefit to doing that. And even if you do it, it's probably going to be a couple of years before free agent hitters look at that and go like, okay, so this isn't, you know, the death of my power. Yeah. And so if it doesn't work in year one and two, are you going to bring it in even more?

Right. And the only thing that you, like, yeah, well, and the only thing that you really need to adjust there is the left field wall again, right? Because it's just. Right. I mean, you bring it in five, 10 feet, but like, I think at that point, it's like 311. right down the line. And at that point,

it's, you're getting pretty close, uh, to what is like the reasonable. So, uh, I would say no. I just don't think there's a reason to just build a better team for your

ballpark. Yeah. But team all the park's beautiful. And, and like the Kansas City Royals have done in the past, if you build a team that fits your ballpark better, then you have home field advantage, which is literally the point.

So, I don't think bringing in the walls. I don't think that's going to do much. And like you said, it's mostly just the left field wall. That's a problem. Left field is where fly balls typically die. So,

I mean, I guess you could bring that in like four or five feet, but. Yeah, maybe, maybe, maybe, I'm going to make in April and May.

Maybe you can bring in left center a bit. I guess, but I just build a better team. Yeah. Take advantage of the ballpark you do have. You're listening to the Lockdown, I'm Aaron's podcast. Thank you again for making us your first listen here on Mailbag Monday.

We got one here from Max. Cleveland reported the Mariners have checked in on Josh Naylor. If there is a trade for him, can he and Thai France coexist on the same roster? They rotate DH or Naylor plays outfield. Also side question, will the Patreon show release earlier now that you don't have to record twice? So to answer the second part of the question, yes, because we'll be recording around three Eastern, noon, Pacific time. That's when we always record. so because we're not going to be doing double recordings and therefore doing locked on first before the Patreon show will be recording earlier and therefore the show will come out earlier unless I have like somewhere to go or something to do before I have a chance to edit the show.

Unless he has a better opportunity than giving you guys the show that you pay for. Yeah. But yeah, it'll come out a couple hours earlier. Can France and Naylor coexist on the same roster as of now? Yes. Because that DH spot is wide. wide open. Wide open.

So yes. That's the only way they can, though, because you're not putting nailer in the outfield. Don't even think about it. No, no, no. So, yeah. So yes, right now they can. If you go and you add like Jorge Salerer, then no, they cannot. At least not, not in a way that's conducive to the Mariners, you know, best chances to win.

Let's put it that way to be nice. Yeah. like the nailer idea a lot I completely understand why the marines have checked in on him that comes as no surprise whatsoever um it's gonna be expensive I have no idea how you get him yeah nailer's only got two years of club control left too

so yeah do you want to trade miller for two years of nailer yeah I don't think so so yeah type fit but you know maybe you get Klossayer or Bieber out of it or something too but yeah uh they can coexist I wouldn't say that's a likely move that the

Mayors are going to pull off. And yes, the Patreon shows will come out a couple hours earlier, just on Tuesday and Thursday now instead of Monday and Wednesday. Yep. Next question here. Final question from Mark. What would a Mitch Garber contract look like? What'd you do it?

Yeah, Garber's an interesting guy. Not really a full-timer. He only played 89 games last year. Obviously, you know, Jonah Heim, having a breakout year limited his opportunities beyond the plate, and then it took him a while to kind of latch on as the full-time DH for Texas, but there's no doubt that he can hit. Certainly he can.

So you do get some value from him catching, but he's not a good catcher. So you kind of have to be careful about overvaluing maybe 20 starts that you get from him there. And then at that point, he's first base DH only, who's never been this good over at the course of a full season. He's 31 years old. like there are some red flags um you know around garber but he's also a really good hitter so i mean or at least he has been recently so yeah you have to take a shot on somebody i think

garber i think where seattle would probably feel comfortable on garber is something like two and 32 like 15 16 a b something like that i think what garber's probably looking for is four and 70 something in that range so it feels like there's maybe a immediate you know a middle ground here where it's three and 54 something like that three and 50 somewhere in that range that's that's pretty close to like the max I would pay for him because I do have questions and again the the catching 20 games thing like is that more valuable to me than Lordus Gurriel who is going to play a good left field for 130 games, but he's not going to hit as much as Garber, which one would I rather have?

That's close. You know, it's up for discussion. So I think I'd probably rather have Gurriel. But I think, I think Garber might be a little bit cheaper in terms of money. In terms of money and years. So I think probably my guess is what he ends up getting is like 3.56, somewhere that word, three somewhere between three and 50 to 55 somewhere in that range right but i think he's probably looking for like four and 70 yeah if the mayor is signed garber i'd be fine with that it'd be cool with

that it's good ad uh but i'll put it like this if it's between like garver at three and fifty and saler at like three and sixty i'm going so i'd agree that's a long-winded way of saying that Garber is not my first choice. I like Garber. No. Good hitter. But would like other players more than him. Yeah.

Would you rather, fun hypothetical here? Would you rather trade whatever you think the freight is for Brent Rooker? Or give Garber three years, 50, let's just three years, 50 million, just make it easy. What would you rather do? Assume that Oakland will take a bulk deal. Rooker. Yeah, I think so too. Spike Garber being a better hitter, at least right now.

So, yeah. In theory. I'd rather get Rucker saved my money, right? And hopefully put that money into something else that I need. Right. Yeah. I just, I think some people are overvaluing Garber's ability to catch a little bit. And they're kind of ignoring the fact that I don't think he has a season where he's gotten 500 played appearances in his entire career.

Yeah. I mean, she's even this year, like great year for him, but I think he played like 78 games this year or something like that. I think it was 89 and he had like 380 played appearances. Like it's there's some red flags. It's not a no-brainer. Yeah. Like I'm just like it's a hard no for me at $20 million a year. Yeah.

At 18 I'm kind of hesitant. And even at 16, I'm not super on board with that. Ideally, like if you could get him at two. and 28 with like a third year option or something like that i don't think i think he's going to end up getting more than that but for me personally if you could get him at that deal then that's where i feel most comfortable with him yeah but you're likely going to have to give him more than that and at that point i just i don't know if that's going to be worth it right uh garber by the way career high in plate appearances he's never had more than 400 yeah in a season so and obviously that's going to

come up in negotiations. So is anyone going to give him, you know, close to $20 million a year? Probably not. Right. When we factor all that in. The last four years, Garber's done that back and forth thing where he's really good and then bad, really good, mediocre. Really good. And it doesn't seem like teams right now, even with the, uh, how limited the heading market is that teams are necessarily giving it right now.

on hitters. Now, we haven't seen a lot of deals, but like the Candelario deal, that's fine. 15 million a year for Jamir Candelario coming off the year that he's coming off of. That's not, yeah, that's not an overpay. Yeah, Jason Hayward at $9 million for one year. That's about what you would expect in a normal year. So so far, at least it doesn't seem like the poor hitting market is jacking up the prices of the, of the offensive players, which is a good sign for Seattle. one other thing I would note here like in the whole Solair versus

Garver or like just that general idea, the player who's more willing to be creative with their contract structure probably is going to be the one that the Mariners prioritize. Like if Solair is willing to take 6 million in year one because he's going to make

27 million in the final year or whatever and you kind of try and back load the contract to add more talent to this year and Garver's like, no, I want 15,000, across the board, they're probably going to just pivot to Salaire. So that's something to keep in mind with every free agent right now. The structure of the contract is going to be incredibly important. That's going to do it for a show.

Thank you so much for joining us here on the Locktime Marriss podcast for Colby. Patnaud. I'm Ty Dan Gonzalez. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L.O. underscore Mariners. You can follow me at Ty Dan Gonzalez and Colby at C-Pat-11. That's C-PAT-1-1. You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode.

Thank you again for making us your first list and have yourself a beautiful baseball day. And we'll see you on Wednesday. Peace.