Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Mailbag: Packages For Luis Castillo, Mark Canha's Fit and More

Episode Date: November 8, 2021

On this week's Mailbag Monday, hosts Ty Dane Gonzalez and Colby Patnode answer several Mariners questions on the possibility of trading for Reds RHP Luis Castillo, how free agent OF Mark Canha could fit into their plans and more.Be sure to follow or subscribe to Locked On Mariners wherever you prefer your podcasts! For questions and other inquiries, email: [e-mail] the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @danegnzlz | @CPat11For more of Ty and Colby, check out their Patreon: patreon.com/controlthezone/Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You are Locked-on Mariners, your daily Seattle Mariners podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome to Locked-on Mariners, your home for Daily Seattle Mariner's News and Analysis. Thank you so much for making us your first listen of the day. We are free and available on all platforms, of course. And today is Monday, November 8th, 2021. I am your host, Tidea and Gonzalez, joined as always by my co-host, Colby Patnode, Follow us on Twitter at L-O-U-U-U-U-N-S-Romor.

You can follow me at D-A-N-Z-E, G-N-Z-L-Z, and Colby at C-P-A-T-E-P-A-T-1-E. Be sure to also check out our Patreon where we talk about the Mariners even more. Also get into some non-baseball talk twice a week. New episode dropping for our tier two and three patrons later today. Visit patreon.com. Ford-S-C-C-Troll-A-Zone, if you want to listen to that.

But today on Lockdown Mariners, it is Mailbag Monday. You sent us some Mariners. questions. We're going to answer them here on air. And if you like what you hear, give the show a follow or subscribe. Wherever you're listening to this, we greatly appreciate it. So free agency has officially begun. Nothing has really happened on the Mariners front. Some reports here and there, John Morosi reaffirmed the Mariners' interests in Marcus Simeon today. But overall, not a, not a ton going on in the Mariners' fear just yet. The GM meetings began tomorrow. So maybe something we'll get started there.

But we have a very simple question to kick things off here from Always Alvi at Amazing Alvi 1, 2, 3. When will the first move happen? Colby? Yeah, you know, I would expect it to be sometime before Wednesday would be my guess. But yeah, you know, there's not a lot of like specific rumors. Apparently Mark Kana is still in Seattle, which I mean, I don't know, whatever. whatever that's worth to you. And then obviously Marosi came out today

and he linked Marcus Simeon to the Mariners officially, even though we already knew that was going to happen and John Heyman with some just some dynamite reporting saying the Mariners are going to spend this winter, which I don't know if you knew this tie, but everybody else in the Northern Hemisphere did.

We already knew the Mariners were going to do that. So A plus reporting there from John Heyman. But yeah, I still Yeah, he's always on top of things, man. Always with the first scoop. But yeah, he's, or I think the Mariners are probably going to get busy here pretty quickly. I just, I wouldn't expect anything like I don't think they're signing Simeon before the shutdown or Bryant or whoever. So first move probably coming in the next couple of days, if not the next couple of hours.

but I wouldn't expect it to be like a star or anything like that. Yeah, the correct answer is pretty much right as soon as we're done with our string of podcasts recording here on Monday. Because, you know, that's just what Jerry Depoto does. I mean, last week we were rattling off our offseason plan to all of our patrons in like 20 minutes in. What happens? USA Kikuchi declines his option. That kind of threw our whole plan for a loop. So just kind of seems like we're never in the right place at the right time when it comes to the Mariners making moves. But who knows?

I'm hoping that a move happens soon here, though. So we have something actually tangible to talk about. But we have a question here about a pitcher that has reportedly become available. And we kind of presume that he was going to become available because of what's going on with Cincinnati and how it seems like they're pretty much heading for a fire sale this off season, looking to cut payroll. They obviously just waived way mildly when they could have probably got something for him. But Keith at Keith's trees or Keith's T's rather wants to know what does a trade package for Luis Castillo look like? And we also got a similar question from Jordan Lovett, our buddy at Mormon Pizza Man on Twitter,

who actually had another Reds Mariners trade as well. So actually that doesn't have to do with Castillo, but it does. does have to do the do with the red so we'll get to that in a second but colby what do you think a trade package for castillo looks like um it's going to be pricey um castio still has two years of club control left uh he's very uh very good um he hasn't exactly hit his ceiling yet which is um possibly beneficial to seattle uh he he turns 29 in a couple of weeks so not super young but not old hasn't really hit his ceiling yet, but it continues to be very good. He's going to cost you something here.

So I think, you know, the Reds are probably going to start by asking for Julio and Kirby and all that. And that's just a hard pass. So for me, you know, Castillo is a number three, a strong number three. And that's worth at least starting the discussion with, you know, some guy. The best prospect I could see them moving is Noeli. and that's only because he's so far away. Even then, I don't think they'd actually move him.

So I would look at guys like Brandon Williamson and possibly Levi Stout, somebody in that range. I could also see Cincinnati really liking Kyle Lewis as they try to get, you know, lose payroll, but not in such a way that will drive all the fans away, if that makes sense. So, you know, if you get back a. rookie of the year, right, like Kyle Lewis, that might help kind of, you know, ease the tension from Reds fans. And you could throw in a guy like Chris Flexen as a possibility as well, as a cheap alternative to Castillo.

So if you're looking for a prospect, for me, it starts with the, you know, it probably starts with the Williamson's of the world, the Hancock's maybe. but I could see a deal here happening where it's major leaguers are involved to get Luis Cassie out of the Reds. Yeah, we've talked about it a little bit here with the Reds that major leaguers do make some sense because I think that they are still going to try to be at least mildly competitive next year. Yeah. You know, they got fairly close this year. Kind of hit a little dive there towards the end.

But it would make sense for them if they're kind of entering something of a soft, to reboot to take on a guy like Chris Flexen or Kyle Lewis or something in a deal there. So the numbers on Castillo this year, the Ks per nine went down quite considerably from where he was in 2020 and 2019. Still average over a K per nine, just barely. Still, you know, stayed healthy, which has been a huge thing with him. He's been able to stay healthy in all of the last four years. 169 innings in 2018,

190 innings in 2019. Of course, there was the shortened season, but he still pitched 70 innings in 2020, and then 187 and two thirds. This year, 33 starts, had his second highest walks per nine,

however, 3.6. The ERA was higher than it's been since 2018, 3.98, 3755, but he was still worth nearly four. wins by fan graft standards. So he's very good. And he certainly makes the Mariners

quite better if they were able to land him. This really depends on cost because again, you're not, I mean, Castillo is not an ace and you don't want to pay for him like you're trading for one. So let's talk about Jordan's idea here, though, because it also

deals with the reds. And it's actually a trade idea, which we usually do that on Friday. But we got a couple of trade ideas on Twitter. today. So we might go over a couple of those on today's show. But Jordan wants to know about trading for Jesse Winker potentially now that the Reds have kind of made their statement. He has a trade idea where it's Emerson Hancock and Cade Marlowe slash Corey Rozier slash Jake Frailey. And he says they would have their choice of the three for Jesse Winker. What do you think about that, Colby?

I don't think it's enough. Jesse Winker's pretty good. he's really good. You just had a career year. So the Reds, again, how far are they going to take their fire sale? I don't know. They've already cleared about $17 million. And, you know, they've given up about by 2018 or by 2021 F-W, they've given up about six to eight wins in the process.

And they've gotten back one prospect. So, I mean, how far are they willing to take that? I don't know, but I don't think that they are so desperate to shed salary that they're going to more or less give away Jesse Winker. The guy's just really good. So I think you need to add more. But every player on the Reds who's making money, he probably should be mentioned and talked about and at least discussed in the Mariners front office because there's some good pieces there that can help you. And Winker would be one of them. but I just I think you're going to have to give up quite a bit

all right got some more questions to answer in just a moment but real quick reminder of this episode of Lockdown Mariners is brought to you by direct TV does this sound familiar you've got one device that let you catch the game live another that let you stream your favorite shows you're watching sports highlights on your phone and you've got your neighbor's best friends log in for the good stuff well I want to tell you about a simple way to get all that entertainment

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Every day we are free and available on all platforms. Tell your friends, family, all of those you know out there who are Mariners fans. Come check us out here for what is going to be an absolutely incredibly fun off season. And it's already getting off to a fun start here with the Marcana rumors, the Marcus Simeon rumors, all that good stuff. We're going to answer more questions here, starting with Ben J. Miller at Ben Diddy on Twitter. What would the off season have to look like for all of, Mariners' Twitter to be happy with it. Probably nothing.

I don't think you're going to appease every single person in Mariners' Twitter because some people in Mariners' Twitter just thrive to thrive off of complaining. So, yeah, I don't think there's going to be an outcome no matter what, no matter what they do, really, even if they have an incredible, you know, San Diego Padres, Miami Marlins type of offseason. where they get a bunch of superstars and go crazy. I don't, even then there's going to people that complain about it, particularly I probably would,

depending on what they all had to give up and commit to you to make that happen. But again, yeah, you're not going to be able to make every single person of Marri's Twitter happy, no matter what you do. No, I mean,

you could acquire Jose Ramirez and Marcus Simeon, and people would still be like, well, you just gave up Kendall Graveman for nothing then, because now Abraham Torres was worth, list. Like, it's not going to happen. There are just Mariner fans out there who, well, they're not really

Mariner fans. They just like being mad at the Mariners. So it's not going to happen. But, yeah, it just ignore those people. Yeah. All right. Bo Stansfield at Bo underscore Stansfield. Do you have any targets for offseason signings

for player development and coaching staff, upgrades possibly in hitting or pitching coaches? We still got to see how, you know, how the staff plays out. We don't have full clarity on who's coming back, who's not yet. But me personally, you know, really, I think this is only an answer for people that are on the inside

because it's so hard for us to know who's doing their job properly, who's not, because really in season's success only lean so much on the coaching staff, particularly position coaches, hitting pitching coaches. You know, we talked about how they're often used. as scapegoats for lack of success when that's really not the general, you know, core of the issue. So I wouldn't be able to tell you, honestly.

I don't really, there isn't really anyone out there that I are on the staff right now that I think is doing a bad job or needs to be replaced. And there's really no one out there that I'm aware of that I think would be better suited for a coaching spot in Seattle. What about you, Colby? No, it's a little weird. We haven't gotten final confirmation on the coaching staff. That usually happens before free agency starts. So it leads me to believe there might be a change or two, but I couldn't even speculate who it is.

I like the Mariners coaching staff at the Major League level right now. Certainly no reason to fire or move on from Paul. I forgot his name now. Paul Woodworth. Pete Woodworth. Thank you. Pete Woodworth. That was weird. Pete Woodworth. There's no reason to move on from him.

There's really no reason to move on from Tim Laker. I know the offense was pretty bad last year. But I mean, how do you blame that on him? I don't. That doesn't make sense to me. That's a personnel issue. That's a yeah. That's not a coaching staff issue.

Yeah. So it's, we'll see what happens. It leads me to believe that there might be a change here. but I can't even speculate on who it would be. But yeah, it's not really our for us to say. We don't have the connections inside the game to certainly not to not have favorites for like kidding coaches

and pitching coaches. We were looking for managers. I could give you a pretty good idea if who'd be on my list. But as for support staff and, you know, development guys, I don't, my contacts don't go that deep. So apologies. All right. So Travis Johannes here has a question about Chris Bryant, who was predicted by a couple of guys over at MLB trade rumors today to go to the Mariners this off season.

And they had them at six years, $140 million. And Travis has seen a few predictions on Bryant to the Mariners today that has them in that range. What would our thoughts be on that? because the length to Travis here is a little scary to him, but he says he would still do it. What do you think about Bryant at that kind of commitment, at that kind of dollar figure? Yeah, I don't know if he's worth that.

It just certainly at the 6 160 range. That seems a bit steep to me. And I would probably look elsewhere. I'd rather, you know, give Marcus Simi in that money. I think Chris Bryant, to be honest with you. So, yeah, that seems a bit high to me in terms of the years. If the only way I can get Chris Bryant is to give him six years, I'm probably not getting Chris Bryant.

If it's five years and, you know, 140 million or whatever, then fine. I'll go ahead and I'll do that. But the six year is really the issue here. It's not the AAV. It's not the total money. I don't really care about that. It's that's sixth year. it's it's going to be at it's going to be probably be a headache but at the same time

I wouldn't want to go I wouldn't go more than four on him I might go five like that's probably pushing it for me but I might go five it's just uh I don't know he's like he's versatile but he's not a great fielder at either third base or outfield right now you know it's just that's going to get worse and it's like eventually he's going to end up being a first base dh type you know yeah and i i would assume that's going to happen within the next three to four years and i would rather have his contract end on at the start of that because he's already 29 you know you you get him for six years you're looking at chris brian at 35 years old uh plus he turns 30 in january by the way so

you're getting him for his age 30 season. I just, I don't know. That seems really risky for the kind of player that we're seeing Chris Bryant become. Yeah, I mean, even if we assume that MLB trade rumors has the correct

valuation or is anywhere close to write on these, they have Simeon at six years, 138 million. Well, Bryant is at six years 160. Like, Simian's a better player. And even,

though he's a couple years older, he can still play a good shortstop. He can still play a good second. He's going to be able to play third in a few years. I have very few doubts that Simian is going to maintain his defensive value into the fifth six year of that contract, whereas Bryant is kind of fringy there now. The versatility part of Brian's game is a little bit overrated because it's not like he's great at any of the spots he plays. He's okay. And the bad is pretty good. But yeah, like when you look at the other some of the other signings that are going um you know according to mlb trade rumors i'd rather have simeon at six and one 38 um you know especially when you consider they also have Trevor story at six and 126 um right so yeah i just to me that that's a no i'm not given

chris brian six years i the versatility part of his game is a little bit overrated um i i would maybe go up to five and even that i'd be pretty hesitant to uh to do you to do that i'd be pretty hesitant to uh to do. I'd just rather go spin a little bit extra and go get Simeon. All right. Curtis Christensen here at courtesy baseball has a trade idea, actually. Mariners, it's a three-team trade, by the way, with the Padres and the Cubs in which the Mariners get Adam Frazier and Wilson Contreras. The Padres get Drew second writer Ian Hap and Kyle Hendricks, and the Cubs get Jackson, Merrill, Zach the Loach, Tom Murphy, and Reese snare. First thought is the Cubs aren't getting enough.

Nope, right? Like, that's the first thought right there. I think it's fine for the Mariners and the Padres, but I mean, it's a lot of assets. The Cubs are giving up and they're just, I mean, Deloche is a good prospect. Don't get me wrong, but it's just, I don't know. He continuously is a very overvalued asset here in the Mariners fandom.

That's why we have the meme of top prospects exact allote. Right. Yeah, I just said the, the Cubs need more here. Cubs need more here. Yeah. It's an absolute steel for the Mariners and, and it's just, it's not something the Cubs are going to do.

What's interesting is, is I'm wondering if maybe the Cubs aren't going to be super sellers this year because they did click. name Wade Miley and exercises option. And I guess they could try and trade them this winter. But that's not a move that you would expect the Cups to make if they're getting ready to trade Hendricks and, you know, basically anybody who's not bolted down. So we'll see how the rest of the offseason goes. But I think Contreras could be traded still. But the claim of Wade Miley does give me some pause unless they're going to try and flip them this winter.

which is which is possible but i i'd be hilarious if they did that by the way yes it would be um watch him get like a really solid prospect like a p. crow Armstrong type um yeah and the and the and the wretches gave him up for nothing so uh yeah i i would push the pause button on any cubs trades until we see how they act the rest of this off season uh just because the myly deal was i mean it was it was a great deal for them but it's still a little weird if you expect a team to rebuild to claim an expensive veteran on waivers. All right, we have a few more questions to answer, but we'll get to those in just a moment. Real quick, got to remind you that this episode of Lockdown Mariners is brought to you by Bilt Bar.

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Yeah, I can potentially see it. You know, one name sticking with the red seam here, maybe Mike Mustakis. What do you think about that, Colby? Yeah, that's the thing when you're taking on a salary or if the Mariners are taking on a salary, I don't think they're just taking on a guy who doesn't fit and then they're going to like DFA him or whatever. Like I don't think they're going to take on Shogo Akiama because Akiama doesn't help. Like there's very little upside or possibility of him helping. Mike Mustakis can play a little second, not very well.

He can play a little third. He can play some first. There's still some possibility that he might hit at a pretty good level. I mean, he's basically Kyle Seeger. Very similar, you know, type of players. So if they take on his salary and hypothetically, let's say they get like Tyler Malley, right? And it lowers the cost to acquire Tyler Malley. That's fine because while Moussacus probably isn't going to be worth his like,

18 million 16 million. Okay. Well, he's probably not going to be worth that. He's not awful. And there's a chance that you do get more value than that out of him. And you probably also get some money from the Reds as well to help a little bit. You would think, but.

But all you need from Musacus to be worth that money is just go basically be what you were in 2020, 230, 331, 468, 106 WRC Plus. I mean, that's nothing special, but it's useful. So yeah. As a bench player, absolutely. Absolutely. Talk about raising the floor of your bench. That's absolutely one way to do it.

Some kind of platoon with Toro or something like that. Sure. Whatever. Yeah, whatever it is. He's still got some power. Strikeouts have gone up, which is concerning. But for the most part, he's been pretty good at avoiding strikeouts. So, yeah, there's enough.

He's just young enough and there's just enough potential. value in a guy like Mastak is that they would take on salary for him. Whereas a guy like Akiama, there's just really no value. He doesn't fit on the Mariners roster. So I don't think they would take him on. So yes, to take on salary to, you know, lessen prospect costs, but only if the salary you're taking on is actually a player who can help you as well. I think that's probably where the Mariners stand. All right, Daisy Dingo wants us to fill in the blank here. In your ideal and realistic bullpen next season, Paul Seawald is the blank best release. So is they the first best, the second best, the third?

Seventh. Seventh. Yes, in my dream scenario. Yes. It's kind of tough because what Paul Seawald are we getting? You want me to look at like the totality and just assume that he repeats those numbers are pretty close? Or you want September Paul Seawald because that's, that's a lot different than July and August Paul Seawald. So just in totality, if Paul Seawald is your.

third probably would be most ideal. And are you putting Giles and Castillo ahead of him in that scenario? Yeah. So that's not a newcomer. No. Yeah. Well, I mean, technically Giles is a newcomer, but yeah.

Technically, but, I mean, it'd be great if he was the fourth. And the guy who jumps him is also already here. like I mean I don't know Munoz or or whoever so pick a guy it'd be great if he was yeah it'd be great if he was fourth and and honestly you could argue that you know sad that I mean also Steckham rider is also still here right now so right and that's you could argue that second rider and sadler were better than Seawald and certainly in September so yeah he might already be the third best and so yeah if he's third if he's the third best reliever in your bullpen I think you're doing pretty well. well if he's fourth i think you've got a really good bullpen so we'll see uh so daisy dingo also has another question about the relievers do you expect the potto to spend more than he usually would on relievers this off season if so give me three free agent relievers to watch wink wink wriselle iglesias uh right cell iglesias somehow got the qualifying offer from the uh angels

it's a hell no on iglesiasis by the way yeah yeah uh column mckew definitely someone uh i would look at and to answer the question of would he spend more than he usually would on relievers probably not i don't think there's really a need to go out and buy a you know a reliever that's going to make it eight to ten twelve million dollars this year um because you have guys you have guys on the back end of your bullpen that's like the least you know that's the position that i'm least worried about uh but yeah call him accuse one guy erin loop is someone that is uh you know lefty that's uh coming off of a really good year in New York.

Steve Seashch, of course. Of course. You had to mention Steve Seashack, of course. That is the show's Jonathan V.R. Only the patrons will understand. But if I remember correctly, there was some report that they had some interest in Archie Bradley last winter. So maybe he didn't have a very good year this year, but maybe he's a guy.

I just don't see Seattle spending significant money on their bullpen. I think they feel pretty good with what they have. That doesn't mean they won't go and add more lottery tickets like Sadler and Seawald and Steckler. Like pretty much everybody in their bullpen last year, Kendall Graveman even, was like that. So they'll go add some of those guys and they might get one or two surprises, but I don't think they're going to go out and spend, you know, $12 million a year on. on Iglesias, at least I hope not. Or Kinley Janssen or Joe Kelly or whoever. Like, no thanks.

Joe Kelly would be fun, though, and he does add to team brawl. All right. Lightning round real quick before we hop off. Cameron W. at Mariners Trident. In a world where we do sign Mark Kana, is he your leadoff hitter? And where does he start in the outfield? Too early to tell if he's your lead off hitter or not. He could fit pretty much anywhere in your lead off hitter. lineup, but it depends on what else you do.

If he signed market, Samian, Semian should probably be your lead off guy. As for where he starts in the outfield, hopefully in a corner spot, hopefully in left, preferably. Yeah, but yeah, hopefully not centerfield. You should do better

in center field. Yeah, he's not awful out there, but you should, you should aim for good in center field, not awful, if that makes sense. Yeah, he belongs in a corner. Probably left field is where he's best suited to play. Would he be the lead off hitter?

He could be, sure. I mean, Kana's the type of guy who could probably hit one through one, two, five, somewhere in that. You could hit him three or four, I guess, but he's probably best suited for first, second, or fifth. So, yeah, it's definitely possible, but you have to see the rest of the offseason before we can answer that. Yeah.

I also want to give a shout out to Aden at SFN. 58 he also asked about louis castillo and what the package would look like so sorry for not shouting you out earlier when we answer that question but did want to make sure I acknowledge that you uh you also asked that um famous james at eating underscore w's do you guys remember when tigers pitcher armando galaeraga had his perfect game taken away from him because of the blown call at first base which would have been the last out famous james says that he

randomly think that they randomly think about it way more than they should. Yeah, I do remember I do remember that. That was an awful call and he should have should have been given that perfect game. Agreed. But alas, MLB umpiring strikes again. Indeed.

And then last question here. It's a trade idea from Daisy Dingo as well. Daisy underscore dingo on Twitter M's receive Matt Chapman and Tony Kemp the A's receive Kyle Lewis, Abraham, Toro, Zach the Loach, and Brandon Williams. This is a lot, way too much for Matt Chapman and Tony Kemp that I'm comfortable giving up.

Yeah, I mean, you're basically giving the A's three guys who are going to contribute at the major league level this year. Who have, I think, about 15 years of club control for two guys who have a total of four years of club control and Kemp is kind of coming off a career year and Chapman is a big risk. I think we need to stop in general. The Mariners fan base needs to stop treating Matt Chapman

like he's some sure thing. He's not. There's a lot of risk with Matt Chapman, with his hip injury, with his bat, which is quickly declining. The strikeouts are way up. There's a lot of potential, you know, downside to trading for Matt Chapman.

So you've got to be careful there. Yeah, he's just not worth that package. That's a lot. And Tony Kemp is ultimately inconsequential here in regards to this package overall, even though he was a two and a half one player last year. It's still just pretty unexciting, generally speaking. So yeah, if I'm the Mariners, I say no to that deal. Anyway, that's going to do it for our show today.

Thank you so much for sending us. all your questions, especially on short notice. I thought I had already tweeted the thing out last night when I was at the movies, but I guess it either didn't send or I just forgot to send. Who knows? But thank you so much again for joining us here on Lockdown Mariners. And for Colby Patnode, I'm Tyane Gonzalez. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L0 underscore Mariners.

You can follow me at Dane Gonzalez. This is D-A-N-Z-L-D and Colby at C-P-E-E-N-Z-L-L-E. And Colby at C-P-A-T-1. You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode. And thank you again for making us your first listen of the day, just like you do every day. We'll be back tomorrow and hopefully Jerry Depoto gives us some news to talk about. But if not, we'll be doing mock trade Tuesday where we scout our baseball trade values.com like we always do for, you know, the weirdest and sometimes good Mariners trade proposals that we can find on there. And in the meantime, make your second list of the day locked on MLB prospects where host arm lighten.

It's a prospect encyclopedia, and he's going deep on the MLB stars of tomorrow. And just like us, his show is free and available on all platforms. So have yourself a beautiful baseball day. Go listen to Arm Show, and we will see you tomorrow.