Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Mailbag, Part 1: Why Are We So Excited About the 2022 Mariners?

Episode Date: January 24, 2022

Hosts Ty Dane Gonzalez and Colby Patnode answer your questions, including which Mariners player is due for a breakout in 2022, why they're so excited about the upcoming season for Seattle and more.Be sure to follow or subscribe to Locked On Mariners wherever you prefer your podcasts! For questions and other inquiries, email: [e-mail] the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @danegnzlz | @CPat11For more of Ty and Colby, check out their Patreon: patreon.com/controlthezone/Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.BetOnline AGThere is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You are Locked-on Mariners, your daily Seattle Mariners podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome to Locked-on Mariners, your home for Daily Seattle Mariner's News and Analysis. Thank you so much for making us your first listen of the day. We are free and available on all platforms, and today is Monday, January 24th, 2022. I am your host, Tainan Gonzalez, joined as always by my co-host, Colby Patnode. follow us on Twitter at L-O-U-U-U-N-S-R-N-R-E. you can follow me at d n gn gnzlz and colby at c pat 11 that's cpat 1 1 1st be sure to also check out our

patreon where we talk about the mariners even more and also get into some non-baseball talk twice a week visit patreon com forward slash control zone for more information on that if you're interested it's always a fun time over there and on today's episode of lockdown mariners we're going to be having a lot of fun it's mailbag monday but this mailbag is probably going to be a two-parter stretching over into our wednesday show as as well. You submitted a ton of Mariners and even some non-baseball questions via Twitter. So to take our time with every single one, consider today's show to be part one. And if this is your first time joining us, welcome to the show. If you like what you hear, give us a follower, subscribe.

Wherever you're listening to this, we greatly appreciate it. So let's head on over to Twitter and start with Tyler at Tyler underscore Jordan 89, who asks, who do you think is the likeliest mariner to have a breakout 2022 season? Colby, I'll start with you. Almost by default, it kind of has to be Jared Kelnick, right? We started to see the rise of Kelnik in September. Rise of Kelnik, good name for a Star Wars movie, Dibs. And obviously there's really only good title for Star Wars Night at the ballpark.

It is. But obviously, you know, his overall numbers really can only go one way. So, yeah, it's Kelnick for me. he's not only the most likely, he's also the best candidate to truly have a breakout campaign because you can't you can't pick like Julio because he's, we don't have a baseline for him. So, you know, other guys like France and Cropper, they've already kind of had their breakouts, Hanager. Maybe Toro is another way you could go, but I'll go with Kelnick.

Yeah, I mean, you kind of just have to go with Kellynock, considering, you know, where he finished the season off. For the Mariners, he was one of their best hitters. obviously defensively didn't have a great time out there and we actually do have a question in regards to his defense in center field that we're going to be talking about later on in the show but you just look at the at the kind of month of September that

that Jared Kellanick was able to put forward he was arguably the reason that they were as involved as they were towards the end of the season or at least he you know without him they wouldn't have been in the position that they were in he slash 248, 331, 525, for with a WRC plus of 135. He struck out, you know, 24.6% of the time, not great, but did walk 10.2% of the time. You saw that the command over the strike zone just got a lot better for him at the plate,

that he was identifying pitches better and able to take more walks and get on base more and, you know, hit for a little bit of power as well. So, yeah, I think just building off of that after, pretty much everything up to that point had just been a complete disaster for Kellnick. Getting that together, coming up in some big spots for this team and helping them nearly get into the postseason, I think is huge for him to build upon from a confidence standpoint, from a development standpoint. I think he's he's on a trajectory to really break out in 2022. So thanks for the question, Tyler. let's move on to a funky CT monkey rate your excitement for this coming season compared to years past also what about the M's had you most excited um I would say this year for me it's the fact that you know and we still got to see how the off season plays out when that gets ramped back up but for me you know heading into this off season it was they have all this money they have prospect

They have arguably the best farm system in baseball to trade from. They got a potential superstar coming up this year with Julio Rodriguez. There's just so much to be excited about with this team and where this team is going, not just for 2022, but years beyond. I think the most excited I've been for the Mariners recently, probably heading into the 2015 season after they nearly got in in 2014. They added Nelson Cruz. You know, they added some pieces along that roster.

And I thought maybe that that would finally be the team that that broke the drought. But the future for that team and where that organization was at the time was rather bleak, at least in terms of like the farm system, it was terrible. You know, they had all that money wrapped up in like five players. So while there was some excitement there about what could happen in 2015, what happened beyond 2015 was a little concerning. and we saw how that ultimately played out um but this year it's like okay if 2022 doesn't go exactly how you want it to there's still 2023 there's still 2024 the future is still really bright

for your organization and at some point you you have to perform but there's a lot of fail safes put in place here by by jerry depoto and company so uh i i i just i love what what this uh what this regime has done to build this organization and i'm looking forward to seeing how they finished off this off season when they can. And what about the M's had you most excited? Well, I guess I answered that part as well. So Colby, I'll kick it to you. What has you excited for this season?

And how would you rate your excitement compared to years past? Because for me, I think this is the most excited about I've been about the Mariners, maybe ever. Yeah. You know, it's interesting. you know, there was a lot of excitement in the early 90s, but I don't remember any of it because I was barely born. So, you know, when you kind of started stacking Griffey and Edgar came up and hit right away and he had Tino coming through the system,

and Griffey was already a star, and he had Randy Johnson, and, you know, A-Rod was draft. Like, there was a lot of pipe then, but I can't really speak to that. I guess probably the most excited I was was probably after the 2016 season, that offseason. You know, they went out and they got, they got Mitch Hanigur, who was a really interesting prospect.

They got, you know, Gene Segura. Gene Segura. Yeah. You know, it kind of looked like that. There's a great double play combo.

And Kyle Seeger was coming off of a huge year. Cano was coming off of a huge year. Cruz was coming off of a huge year. You know, Felix was still, believable, you know, and Kumo was coming off of a good year.

And it just kind of felt like, you had Paxton coming. Like there was a lot to be excited about. And unfortunately. Well, remember, they weren't even going to get coma, right? He had a deal in place with the Dodgers. Right. And then it was kind of a Christmas Eve.

Aaron swooped in. Yeah, it was like a Christmas party. They announced it. Like, that squad was going to be so much fun. And then injuries just kind of, kind of did them in. And they got delayed to 2018. The 2018 team looked like what I thought the 2017 team was going to look like. So that was probably the most, this is probably the most high five.

I've been since then. What has me most excited is that we don't have really any clue what the finished product is going to look like. Like, yeah, we know Jared Kellnick's going to be on the team, but what does Jared Kellnick look like? We get to see Julio and Kirby this year, and we get to see year two of Logan Gilbert. And we don't even, like, the Mariners aren't even like done building this team. You know, so. Yeah. By the way, going back to the breakout question.

Logan Gilbert, another great answer for that, I think. Yep. And that's the other thing, too, is that there are some breakout potentials here. There are young players who could turn into stars. There are young players who could turn into solid regulars. You know, there's a lot of good stuff in the bullpen. There's a lot coming up through the system this year and next year. So, yeah, it's kind of the unknown of potential greatness.

Like, we don't yet know how good this Mariners team can be. B, we don't know what the ceiling is because it's not complete yet. So, um, right. Yeah, it's, it's really exciting to kind of go into the year and be like, could they, you know, backslide, bullpen kind of goes backwards, blah, blah, blah. Some guys come up and struggle at first and they end up winning like 78 games. Sure. They can do that.

Could the opposite happen and they end up winning 100 games and kind of, you know, being the giants this year? I mean, probably not, but it's, it's possible. You can't say no yet. So, uh, kind of the unknown is. is the fun part. We're going to be talking about in just a moment how the lockout could impact the Mariners

heading into what could be a lightning round of an off season and into what is ultimately a critical season as a whole for them. But real quick, a reminder of this episode of Lockdown, Mariner's, it's brought to you by Billapar. It's the New Year, so that means New Year's resolutions.

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Let's continue our mailbag with John at JPIVVT, who asked, curious about your take on the M. impact of the lockout with the rest of the free agent period and start of this critical mariner season how does it affect the team and will it help or hurt them so colby we talked a little bit about this on control the zone earlier last week i asked you how you know a potential lightning round of an off season whenever the lockout ends right before spring training starts could uh you know impact the mariners would it impact them negatively positively somewhere in between.

Same goes for the season as a whole. How do you think that this lockout has affected the Mariners' outlook for 2022? It's tough to say because every team is affected in the same way. And we don't know because we're missing the most important piece of information here, which is how active and how far along were the Mariners in talks with players, agents and other GMs before the shutdown. Now, because it's Jerry Depoto, I think we can assume that he was very active behind the scenes and he was talking to a lot of people.

So that's good. I mean, Jerry is not one to sit on his hands and wait and see unless, you know, he's literally given no other choice. Thank you, Kevin Mather. So, yeah, he's probably gotten pretty far. He probably got pretty far along talks with Trevor's story. That's at least what we've heard. we've heard that they were pretty advanced talks with the Reds for Sunny Gray,

you know, and obviously just Jerry's natural style of being a GM, being very aggressive and talking to everybody about anything. I think Seattle may be one of the better position teams coming out of the lockout, but we'll have to wait and see because we just don't know that answer. We don't know if the perception of the Mariners has changed. You know, you had Adam, Frazier, and Robbie Ray, that certainly tips the scales a little bit,

but did it tip it enough to, you know, land, say Chris Bryant or Trevor Story or is it push ownership to okay a major trade for not a Luis Castillo or what I mean? So we just don't know the answer to that question. So it's affecting everybody equally right now. Nobody has an advantage as far as we can see. But obviously the further along you were in talks before the lockout,

probably you're probably in a better position than say a team like uh you know a team like Arizona who basically did nothing so I think you're an okay spot I think ultimately you know with the the certain position that you're you're in right because it is pretty unique compared to some of the other teams that you're in competition with here you know you made the first couple of big moves in your retooling of your roster, but you're still far from done right now. But like Colby said, you know, depending on how far along and talks they are, and it seems like they are pretty far along in talks with a couple of key potential additions, it could have an impact because everything is going so fast. But given Jerry to Potos nature, given the fact

that he is one of the busiest general managers in all of baseball has always been, especially since taken over in Seattle. I think that even if, you know, say the time away may diminish the progress that they made with someone like story or or anything like that, if that does happen, DePoto is going to have a plan B, C, D, E, F, G, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera, in place. And he's going to be quick to enact those and fall back on them if he has to. So I think in the end The Mariners are going to build a roster

That is going to compete for a wild card spot And maybe put itself in a position by July Where it can trade itself into a division contender I think that's ultimately where we're heading Really you know unless just this whole thing falls apart And all the progress that they made on all these things just completely falls apart and the market just gets way, way ahead of them. But I don't think that's going to happen with who's at the helm for them.

I just, I don't see Jerry Depoto allowing that to happen. So the Mariters are going to be active. They're going to be very active. And I think, honestly, a lightning round of a free agency period kind of plays to the Mariners strengths, kind of plays to Jerry Dopto's strengths in the end as a general manager. So if anything, it might benefit them, especially the players are, maybe suddenly a little more desperate to get deals done before spring training starts. And maybe, you know, with the money that they have freed up, they might be able to pull off a move that

none of us are kind of expecting them to make on top of whatever else they do. So you never know. Is that a guarantee of anything? Not really. But I could see a scenario here where it actually favors the Mariners in the end. So let's move on to Curtis Christensen at courtesy baseball. Is the Tacoma Rainier's roster going to be one of the best or most talented rosters across all levels of baseball?

Will they possibly have a AAA super rotation? And who do you think is a surprise name to make it to AAA or not make it there at any point in the season? Thanks. Well, I mean, they're not going to be more talented than any major league team. So I wouldn't say all levels of baseball. but they're going to have some names come through that roster as well. Julio's probably going to start the season there, probably only going to be there for a month.

But we'll probably see Brandon Williamson there at some point, George Kirby. Emerson Hancock will probably get there at some point. As far as a surprise, Colby, does anyone come to mind? Maybe Noel Lvie Marte if he starts the season at AA and has a great year. Anyone else? Yeah, I suppose Marte is probably the most obvious choice. One guy I could see moving pretty fast,

although I think he probably falls short of AAA this year. Sam Carlson, you know, he's, it depends on how, you know, how year two after Tommy John goes for him. And typically that's the year where pitchers really start to get their command back. They start to get, you know, the ability to go deeper in games. Like that's when, when all the things, aside from velocity and stuff, that's when it starts to come back,

is in year two. So, yeah, he's older guy. He's been in pro ball for a long time. And I say older, and he's like 21, 22. But he certainly has when he's- But he has been in the organization for like four or five years. Five years, right? Yep. So, yeah, he's probably going to start the year in Everett,

but I wouldn't be shocked if he didn't see her in AAA. I think ultimately what happens is he probably has to pitch pretty well in Everett for half the year, if not more. And then he ends up in double A. And they just kind of decide to maybe not push him. But that's a guy I could see being kind of a surprise member of the rainiers. Aside from, you know, like the rainiers needed a center fielder for three days. So they brought up Jonathan Clossack because he was already in Everett.

You know, aside from that type of stuff, which happens occasionally. I think Sam Carlson's a guy to watch make a quick rise. Also, one other name I'll throw out there in this one. I think we'll be a good shock for Ty. How about somebody like Brian Wu? Remember him? Oh, okay, yeah, yeah. It's kind of a pure reliever.

It's a good call, actually. Move pretty quick through the system. So that's what you're looking at. You're looking at mostly pitchers to surprise and make a AAA roster. at some point in the year. Yeah, that's a good call. Obviously, Wu coming off of surgery, but, yeah, he's got the stuff to, to quickly rise to the ranks.

Plus, he's, you know, advanced reliever. Those guys with those kind of profiles, usually only take a year, year and a half, two years to get to the big league. So, yeah, it wouldn't be surprised, actually, if, if Wu got called up. That's a good call. So we got a couple more questions that we're going to be getting to in just a moment. But real quick, a reminder this episode of Lockdown Mariners is brought to you by betonline. AG.

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Bet online, where the game starts. All right. So we got a few more questions to answer for. today's show and again we will be continuing this mailbag on Wednesday so if you're listening to this and your question did not get answered we will be answering it on Wednesday don't worry so be sure to tune in to Wednesday's show let's go on over to Alex Ledbetter 15 who has a an interesting baseball question but also had a non-baseball question that we're going to answer real quick Alex asked worst date you have ever been on Thankfully for me, I haven't had many awful dates.

I'll say this one wasn't because of who I was on the date with, but I went to a music festival once and it like poured down rain and the transit system shut down. I was in downtown Toronto at the time and with my wife, who was my girlfriend at the time. We had to walk like an hour in the rain just getting drenched. no umbrella, nothing we had not prepared for rain that day. So, yeah, I was, I was wet and irritated. It was not fun.

Yeah. I don't want to go too far into details on this type of stuff on this podcast, but let me just say this. If you're setting up your friend with somebody, you should probably let that person know that it's a double date, not just a hangout type of thing. I'm not going to name names. They're not going to point fingers.

They know who they are and they don't listen to the show, but still, yeah, you should just give a heads up because, you know. I feel that. Yeah. It's a crappy thing to do. So, uh, yeah. I've had some really terrible, uh, double dates because of the other people involved. That's always such a tough, like needle. Maybe we'll talk about that on a CTZ Tuesdays eventually.

Maybe expand on that a little bit because, yeah, I have some things to say about people and etiquette during those situations. Not tomorrow, by the way, though, because tomorrow we are doing our just two dudes talking baseball podcast, which is. Yes, absolutely. Which is going to be fun. If you're listening to this, you should tune in to. It's going to be a lot of fun. So the baseball question that Alex had is what's the most you would give up to acquire the following players each individually. He qualifies.

You list Tyler Glassnow, Max Kepler, Frankie Montes, and Pablo Lopez. So starting with Glass Now, we talked about Glass Now. What was it on Fan Fiction Friday, I think? Or maybe it was last week's mailbag, something. We talked about Glass Now last week. and same thing that I said then I'll say now is because he's not going to pitch for you this year because he's probably only going to be able to give you like 10 good starts next year as well coming off of TJ all that you know that's really all you could probably bank on and even that

might be a stretch I wouldn't give up a ton I would probably cap it off with like a couple of Victor LaBrata types Like that's just like if the razor that desperate to get him off of their 40 man To the point where where they want to trade him Maybe they would take that I just personally just the fact that he's not going to produce for you This year

And there's a lot of question marks about how he's going to bounce back from the surgery And how he'll he'll respond in 2023 I just I don't want to pay a ton for that risk Yeah, for him it's like Caden Polkovich level type of prospects Like nothing you're going to miss But something that You know, could be useful down the road

But nothing you're going to terribly miss or can't replace Yeah So as for Kepler Kepler's You know, been a pretty good player Like obviously hasn't Been amazing offensively aside from one year But a good defender out in right

field um still has a couple years left of club control i uh i would probably give up like i don't know was a zach deloche like that range of prospect for him maybe a little better what about you yeah that's kind of hard right because like he's just he's good there's like some ceiling there but it's like is he actually going to get there because like we've seen what average run of the mill Max Kepler is and he's like a good player but not you know not anything that you want to trade a bunch of valuable stuff for either no he's 2019 is the outlier so I mean that's

that's how you have to look at a guy who's six years into his big league career isn't it's an outlier so that's not something you should count on again he's an average bat above average corner outfielder and that does have value but is it like I'm not giving up map rash for that. So, yeah, probably Deloche, maybe a Levi Stout type of guy, like somebody good, like somebody who definitely carries value, but nobody that is like, like nobody

inside my top seven or eight. Yeah. Yeah, I would just go sign Corey Dickerson. It's basically the same thing. Yeah, maybe as far as I would be willing to go on that is Connor Phillips, but that might be a little too much. Yeah, I do feel as. As the main piece. I'm just focusing on like main pieces in this discussion.

So Frankie Montas got two years left of club control, a really exciting arm who's coming off of a 4F horse season. What do you think about that? I know you're not like super convinced that he's, you know, worth what it may cost for him. So what would you be willing to give up for Montes? straight up. Williamson, maybe? Like, that's like the very top of what I would feel comfortable

because I think I could go get Sunny Gray for a little bit less. And I'm pretty darn sure I can get Chris Bassett for less than that even. So I don't think Montess is that significant of an upgrade over those two. So I, like, I would probably just rather have the value. Even with the extra year? Yeah, just because I don't care so much about the extra year in this because I have Kirby, I have Hancock, I have Williamson, in theory. I have these other guys coming up and I have plenty of money to go get another pitcher next year. And you have Robbie Ray under contract for the next couple years as well. And Marco and Chris Flex and Gilbert, obviously. So it's like, I don't care so much about getting control years from the starting pitcher. I just want the best guy. I mean, that could be

Montes, but again, the difference between Montes and Bassett to me, if it's, hey, you you can have Montes for Williamson or you can have Bassett for Phillips. I'd rather have Bassett. So I'd say Williamson, but that's really pushing it for me. Yeah, I'd probably put it at Williamson as well. Going off the board, you know, for prospects because he doesn't count anymore, Cal Raleigh. Yeah, maybe. But, yeah, I don't know if the A's would be into that, though, with Sean Murphy's still there

and all I don't know, but that's kind of the range, right, that I'd be looking at for Montes. I don't know if the A's would, would do that, though. I think they might want a bit more because, look, Montas is coming off of probably his best year so far. And as Young still has multiple years of control, they're probably going to value him pretty highly in that organization. But we'll see. And also, the A's are weird, right? They usually prefer, yeah. get yeah they want bulk and so hey who knows maybe you could get him for like four guys in your top 30

right phillips polka bitch claus and you know white mills or whatever right yeah maybe you could do that who knows as for paula lopez the final one the former mariner yeah i would say is pretty pretty valuable how do you how far would you be willing to go on lopez because there's some out there that believe that the marlins would ask straight up for julio or celtic and that's a laugh in their face and hang up the phone type of offer um or ask uh i would give up uh i'd give up handcoc um i consider no alvi but again it's one of those things where it's like you know lopez made 20 starts last year not 32 to Lopez. He's never made more than 21 starts, and he's only really been... He's never pitched more than 111 innings.

Right, and he's also only ever been like a number two once, and it was over 20 starts. So, yeah, Hancock is probably as high as I'm willing to go on Lopez. I would be pretty aggressive with the secondary pieces. Like, you interested in Taylor Tremel? Like, I really like Pablo Lopez, but it's just one of those things to say like how much is 110 innings worth and that's really all you can bank on from Lopez and even that is career high.

But he's only 25. He's got three years left to club control. He could be a part of this thing for the long-term future. So I would do Hancock is the highest I would go. Yeah, I'd be fairly aggressive, not to the point of Marte, Rodriguez, Kelnick, etc. Kirby. I'm not doing that. Harry Ford as well, yeah.

I'm probably even Matt Brash. I probably start with with Hancock or Williamson. But again, like you said, and well, like we both said, is this is a guy that in four years at the big league level has never pitched over 111 innings. And he's never been an ace. He's never been a number one. He's never even really been a high end two. It's been about a mid-tier two at best. That's kind of where he's capped out at.

and at that point, I just, you got to be realistic about what he's worth. And you've got to be realistic about the risks that you're taking on as well with his track record. Yeah. So, yeah, for me, I'm not giving up a premier prospect. And I wouldn't necessarily call Hancock or Williamson premier prospects yet. um hancock maybe but uh yeah i just there there's there's i just don't think the marlins are going to realistically view pablo lopez's market as such right and so but as far as what i would be willing to offer yeah i'm probably i don't know i'm even a little hesitant on

on hancock and williamson honestly given the circumstances it but um If that's what it took, I'd probably bite the bullet. But even then I just, I'm not super comfortable with it because there are a lot of downsides to, uh, to trading for Pablo Lopez. Yeah. Or at least risks. So. Yeah.

All right. So that's going to do it for our show today. And again, we will be continuing our mailbag on Wednesday. So again, if your question was not answered today. we will get to it on Wednesday. We'll be sure to. We will get to every single one that you sent via Twitter

on that show. And anything that is submitted between now and then will be answered next week, just as a heads-up. So we will only be answering questions that have already been asked as of this recording,

which is about 1258 Pacific time on Monday. So we will be only answering those on Wednesday. And then anything else that's asked in between then, just to reiterate, will be answered on next Monday's show.

So, thank you so much for joining us here on Lockdown Mariners for Colby Patnode. I'm Tyne Gonzalez. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L-O-U-U-U-U-N-Rerner. You can follow me at Dane Gonzalez. It's D-A-N-Z-L-Z and Colby at C-P-E-E-P-A-T-1. You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode. And thank you again for making us your first listen of the day, just like you do here every day.

Greatly appreciate your support. Now, make your second list of the day, Locked-on bets, your daily one-stop shop for all your gambling needs. Locked-on bets hosted by Your Boy Q with expert analysis and insight from Lee Sterling. And just like us, their show is free and available wherever you get your podcast.

So have yourself a beautiful baseball day, and we'll see you from part two of our mailbag on Wednesday. Peace.