Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Mailbag, Part 2: When Will We See Julio Rodriguez?

Episode Date: December 7, 2021

Hosts Ty Dane Gonzalez and Colby Patnode continue their weekly mailbag by answering questions on when Julio Rodriguez could see the big leagues, which No. 2 or No. 3 starter the Mariners should target, whether Abraham Toro or Adam Frazier has more trade value and more.Be sure to follow or subscribe to Locked On Mariners wherever you prefer your podcasts! For questions and other inquiries, email: [e-mail] the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @danegnzlz | @CPat11For more of Ty and Colby, check out their Patreon: patreon.com/controlthezone/BetOnline AGThere is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You are Locked-on Mariners, your daily Seattle Mariners podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome to Locked-on Mariners, your home for Daily Seattle Mariner's News and Analysis. Thank you so much for making us your first listen of the day. We are free and available on all platforms, of course. Today is Tuesday, December 7th, 2021. I am your host, Tidane Gonzalez. joined as always by my co-host Colby Patnode.

Follow us on Twitter at L-O- underscore Mariners. You can follow me at Dan Gonzalez. That's D-A-N-Z-L-Z and Colby at C-P-P-A-T-1. And Colby at C-P-P-A-T-1-1. Be sure to also check out our Patreon where we talk about the Mariners even more and also get into some non-baseball talk twice a week. Be sure to visit patreon.com

forward slash control the zone for more information on that. If you are interested, we're continuing our weekly, mailbag here on Locked on Mariners. We weren't able to get to everyone's questions on yesterday's show. So we're going to circle back and answer the rest today. And if you like what you hear, give the show a follow or subscribe. Wherever you're listening to this, we greatly appreciate it.

So we have six questions left over from yesterday, all on Twitter. And we are going to start here with Connor at C-Web, P&W, who asks, assuming the Mariners sign an infielder and another bat, At what point does Julio Rodriguez join the big league lineup, assuming he performs well in spring training? I'll start off real quick before I kick it to you, Colby, by saying it doesn't matter what Julio does in spring training, really, at least from a statistical perspective.

I mean, you want to see, you know, where he's at mechanically and all that. But ultimately, it's probably not going to matter what he does in spring training. He's played 40 games above a ball. There are some legitimate questions about his swing and miss. He is kind of a dead pole hitter right now. Not that he can't go the other way, it's just kind of the way he's progressing right now. And he's only 21, so it's not like it,

or he doesn't even turn 21 until the end of the month. But it's not like it's a cause for concern. It's just that there are issues with Julio. So when is Julio called up? when he's one of the five best outfielders, when the mayors feel like he's one of the five best outfielders, major league quality outfielders, not tools,

major league quality. So assuming they sign an outfielder and maybe acquire another guy who could play in the outfield, then I would assume Julio would be behind Kelnick, the outfielder they bring in, the utility guy, and Hanager at least, and probably Kyle Lewis if he's still here.

So is it possible he makes a lot of, opening day roster? Sure. But I really don't think service time is going to play a role at all. It's just about when is he ready, when is he one of our five or six best options. That could be, you know. But here's the deal. If you feel like, to me, Julio, whatever Julio is on February 20th, right, March 1st, right? Let's just say it's March 1st is the day that they report and whatnot.

whatever, wherever you think Julio sits in that pecking order on March 1st is probably where he sits on April 1st. There's nothing that's really going to happen in spring training. Certainly not spring training games. That should wildly change like, hey, I thought Julio was our seventh best outfielder coming in to spring training. But now that he's hit 400 with an 800 slugging percentage or whatever against, you know, 30 AA pitchers. like now all of a sudden he's fourth. Like that should not be what happens here. So to me it's pretty simple.

When you think he's ready to contribute at the major league level and you think he's better than what you're throwing out there now, that's when you call him up. Because that's all that matters. So when do you think we'll see him? You just had to guess they're out a date, you know, or a month, rather. Like May 20th? Mm-hmm.

I think it will be on a similar timeline to Kelnick last year. Kellnick's first call-up was, what, May 13th? Yeah, May 14th. May 14th. Like, yeah. Like the date-wise, sure, but like, Julio only playing seven games in AAA and then getting called up. Oh, no, no, no.

No, like not. They're not going to do that. There's just no reason to do it. I just meant month. I just meant month and day. Yeah. And obviously that was, you know, and that happened because AAA or, you know, minor league's schedule got delayed until the start of May. So, yeah, Kelnick wasn't able to start playing until until then.

Rod, you know, Julio will have pretty much a month head start on where Kelnick was at the start of 2021. So, yeah. Now, like you said, you know, in the end, I don't think like service time. is going to be the thing that holds Julio back. But I also, you know, I don't think that the Mariners are really going to jump at the opportunity to put him on their opening day roster either. Because like you said, he's only played so many games at the, you know, above high A. You know, he's bounced around. He bounced around a lot this year between the Olympics and playing down in the Dominican League and all that.

So the past year has been full of a lot of movement for for Julio and not a lot of consistency for him. So maybe getting him some consistency here and letting him just work through some more things. It seems like he's mechanically he's working on some stuff this off season. It seems like his swing is a little bit different in a video that he posted the other day. So there's some stuff that he's working on. But I think once he gets the spring training, like Colby said, it doesn't really matter what he does statistically, but,

you know, if you feel that he's ready to take on, if he shows you something mechanically that, uh, convinces you that he's ready to take on major league pitching or you're ready to take that chance on him, then sure, but I don't think that's going to happen.

And I think by the time that we get to March and we get out of the lockout and everything and get to spring training, Julio is probably going to be the, sixth or seventh, as you say, Colby, option in your outfield depth by that point. So you're going to be okay enough to at least get by for the first month or so until you really truly feel that Julio is ready to take that next step. And yeah, and again, it's just really about development. It's about what you're seeing from him, the quality of the abats that he's having, all that stuff.

Not really about the statistics. Right. And it's also about the fact that Seattle is trying to win. So, you know, if this was 2021, then maybe they would be a little more aggressive with Julio. But there's no reason to be aggressive with him in 2022 because you can't really afford to have a Jared Kellnick level struggle from anybody for too long of a time in 2022 because expectations are different. And that's a good thing. Yep, exactly. All right.

Thank you so much for the question. Connor, really appreciate it. Let's go on, move on over to Cole here at Cole underscore Ridley, who asked, Dream scenario with what's left in the market. What is the Mariners rotation next April?

So they pretty much have four guys who I think both of us can comfortably say are locked into the rotation with Robbie Ray, Marco Gonzalez, Logan Gilbert, and Chris Flexen. So Colby, I'll ask you this. Ideally, you want a five-man rotation or a six-man rotation because I know there's been some rumblings here and there

about maybe the Mariners are open to running a six-man rotation to start the season again. Jerry came out and said that they're going to do five, so I'm going to roll with that. Sure. I mean, could they change their mind? Sure, but it doesn't really make sense to run a six-man rotation when you're trying to compete,

at least not for the entire season. So maybe they start that way, but I'm going to assume a five-man rotation. Yeah, I am too. So who's that last guy? Who do you want? Ideal world. It's Shane Bieber. But in a somewhat realistic and ideal world, it's Luis Castillo.

I think he probably has the highest upside of any of the names that have been mentioned as available. He's got two years left, which is nice. again strikeout stuff he's got really good stuff and we have seen si young level quality from him granted it was over the 2020 season which is you know kind of an outlier and also kind of difficult to trust but we have seen stretches where he's looked like a you know a true number one and and uh i think he slots in very comfortably as a number three so you get that that floor of a really solid number three um and i think you have the ceiling of a potential number one and there's just not really anybody else out there like that right now

unless you want to talk about Frankie Montas which would probably be my second choice yeah I think ideally most upside probably probably Castillo though I really like Montas and I think the ceiling is pretty high for him I think the most realistic though sunny gray if we're just talking about the guys that are clearly available out there.

And I would be thrilled to have a rotation that's Robbie Ray, Marco Gonzalez, Sunny Gray, Logan Gilbert, Chris Flexen, maybe not particularly in that set order. But that's a pretty darn good rotation that you feel good about. So, yeah, that's kind of what I'm at least, I wouldn't say necessarily hoping for. I would love to instead have a Frankie Montes or Luis Castillo in there instead of gray. But that's kind of what I'm mentally preparing myself for is someone like Sunny Gray in there, which is fantastic. I love Sunny Gray. I think it would be a great addition to this rotation.

So yeah, that's kind of where my ads out with it. So thank you for the question there, Cole. Really appreciate it. We're going to answer a couple more questions in just a moment. But real quick, a reminder of this episode of Lockdown Mariners, is brought to you by betonline.ag and direct TV. Bet Online has you covered all season long with more props, odds, and lines than ever before as football continues the march to the playoffs.

And Bet Online remains your number one spot for all the sports action this season. Head to our new updated desktop or mobile websites. Sign up today and receive your 50% welcome bonus on your first deposit. Just use our promo code locked on. That's LOC, KED, O, N, to receive your bonus. From basketball, football, NHL, boxing, and UFC right to your favorite Vegas casino games, don't wait to take advantage of all the amazing offers available for the 2021 season.

Bet Online is the fastest and easiest way to bet on all your favorite sports. Bet online, where the game starts. Does this sound familiar? You got one device to let you catch the game live, another that lets you stream your favorite shows, you're watching sports highlights on your phone, and you got your neighbor's best friends login for the good stuff. Well, they want to tell you about a simple way to get

all that entertainment you love without the hassle and a great way to finally get your TV together. It's called DirecTV stream and it brings your live TV and on-demand favorites together like never before so you can watch your favorite sports, movies, and shows all in one place. That means no more juggling remotes and no need to buy another device ever again. And the best part, there's no annual contract. So get rid of the clutter and the confusion and get your TV together with DirectTV stream. You can learn more at directtiv.com. That's directtv.com.

compatible device required content varies by package you're listening to locked on mariners thank you again for making us your first listen of the day we greatly appreciate the support let's uh continue the questions here starting with alex ledbetter 15 at alex led better 15 do you think torro or abraham toro or adam fraser has more trade value torro seems like a player of the a's would cover it. Yes, Abraham Toro by far has more trade value. And why would you trade Adam Fraser right now? That doesn't really make any sense. And it, I mean, it makes a little more sense to trade Toro in a package for something. But honestly, it doesn't even make too much sense to trade Abraham Toro either. But just trade value standpoint, Toro. You got more club control. You know, a lot of, you know, Jeff Passon said it when the, the Mariners acquired Abraham Toro that he's basically on every, you know, baseball nerds dream team out there. You know, teams love Abraham Toro.

And, yeah, I think he would have quite a bit of trade value if he's actually dangled out there. But I don't think the Mariners should trade either one unless Toro helps them get, you know, a starting pitcher or whatever. It's probably Toro who has the most trade value. I do think that Frazier has some, but, It doesn't make sense for Seattle to trade him right now. If they go out and they acquire Trevor's story and trade for Matt Chapman, I guess it would make some sense to shop him around,

but you could still use him as a utility guy. I don't think they should trade Toro either. I think having Toro on your bench and having Frazier in your lineup or also on your bench is a really good, I mean, it's a big upgrade over what you had last year. So Toro to me It raises your floor, it raises your ceiling It accomplishes both of those things

Right it makes you deeper Right so to me want Exactly to me Toro has the most trade value I don't think either one is going to fetch you like Like I don't think you're trading Abraham Toro for For Frankie Montas straight up right like Right But as part of a package

Then yeah I would say Toro probably has more because he at least has some track record of success at the big league level. And he has four years of, five years of club control left. Four. So four. Okay, four. So not even Arb yet. He can play third base.

He showed that he can handle second for the most part. And again, he just started playing there last year. And he got better as the year went on. He's a switch hitter. There's some power upside there. I think Toro has more trade value than Frasier. Yeah. And he might have the athleticism to play some outfield,

which apparently the Mariners are going to try out a little bit. You know, he started to improve at second base, even though the turns on the double plays were still a little bit of a problem. But yeah, and then, you know, you saw the hit tool, and you saw that he doesn't strike out. You know, he gets on base. There's some really, really encouraging signs that you've seen from Abraham Toro. And it just, like I said, unless you're getting, you know, something really strong back for a package that includes Toro.

I just don't really see the point in dealing him. But yeah, straight up if you're, because like, think of it like this. With Adam Fraser right now, if we're talking about these two guys right now, what makes you confident that you can get more for Frazier right now than you gave up for him? And why would you do that? Yeah. you know so fraser um is more valuable to you on your roster right now than he's not Toro is probably also the same again unless you're able to get you know something fantastic in a package for him or sorry in a for a package that includes him so yeah um now and like colby said

if you know you're four months in the season or whatever and you're struggling and out of Frazier is playing, you know, he's a, he's on track to be a three-win player. Then, yeah, he probably has more value just in terms of, you know, helping a team out right then, right now has the track record, et cetera, has some flexibility. That's not, you know, some versatility. That's going to be attractive to a lot of contending teams in the middle of a, of a pennant race. So, yeah, you're going to get some bites on that. But right now, yeah, I just, I don't see.

Like, if we're talking about just like what they could fetch in a package right now, just, you know, straight up for for them alone, I would say that you would get more for Toro than Fraser because of the club control. Because of the upside because of all that. Yep. All right. So, thank you for the question. Alex. Really appreciate it. Let's move on to Damien Grubbs at Grubbs Damien.

Say we sign Trevor Story. Do we put him at second and try. to trade for Matt Chapman or put or put Story at third and start Frazier at second. So Colby, obviously there's the concerns about Story's arm. But the rumors at least indicate that the Mariners would like him to play third base. And if you're going to be given him shortstop money, ideally, that's where you would like to put him instead of second base because that really decreases his value defensively. So if you're the Mariners, and obviously, like, it's been said by pretty much everyone that covers the team and that would know stuff about the team that they love Matt Chapman. So do you think there would be a scenario here where the Mariners would sign story with the initial intention to put him at third base, but still explore a Matt Chapman trade?

And then if they're able to land him, decide to move story to second. I think the issue with story at second or at third rather is that it puts more pressure on the bat because a big part of Toulouitsky's value or Toulouinski. Sorry. Sorry. Whoa. Same guy, really. What do you think about it? Yeah. The big part of that, the big part of his value is that he provides that offensive prowess up the middle of the field.

and if he does what he did last year, and he does that as a third baseman, it's fine, but you're losing value from the shortstop money you gave him. Whereas if he's doing that as a second baseman, you're still losing value because you're giving him shortstop money, but not as much because it's really hard to find that offensive, you know, power hitter who plays second. Not so hard to find it at third.

There are arm issues also with story. So story at second feels like a pretty good, like a better option for Seattle. But also, while that does make Matt Chapman, you know, a better fit, I guess you would say. I'm still, I am really close to just being out on the Chapman idea at all. I have legitimate concerns that he's just, he can't hit or that he's not going to be more than an average hiter, which is fine. but I would like better. But when the Mariners are reportedly considering him an impact bat, that is concerning. I think they're mistaken.

Yeah, you're banking on him getting back to the numbers that he was at, you know, a couple of years ago instead of what the player is now. And it's just, especially with the hip and everything and the really concerning strikeout numbers. it's just that's not that's not very enticing from my standpoint from my personal standpoint that to me is not an impact bat well and that's the problem here

is that if you let's say you get story and Chapman right and those are your two impact bats there's a very strong possibility that those are both league average bats and nothing more and I don't consider that impact are they upgrades over what you had last year sure you know anything at league average is a major

increase over what you got from second base last year. Chapman offensively at third base, not that much better than Seeger. So I really, I don't love the idea of those being the two impact back guys. I would honestly, I would probably rather they just go get Chris Bryant and just have Adam Frazier.

Like if it's, if it's Story and Chapman or Bryant and Frazier, I'd probably rather just go Bryant and Frazier, to be quite honest with you. That's how concerned I am about. the path um i don't know i think i still i think i still depending on cost obviously and i'm more so talking about because like i while i'm not excited about the idea of giving trevor story a long-term contract it's money ultimately at the end of the day i don't really care about that but with matt chapman

should. Well, to a degree, right? But with Matt Chapman, the trade package concerns me, because, like, are you going to be valuating him as, you know, past Matt Chapman or current Matt Chapman? So that's, that's what that's really contended upon for me. I just, but. But for me, I think I would still, I would still rather bank on, I would still rather go for the upside of story and Chapman and have. have Frazier as like my super utility. I think that's probably a more valuable play in terms of just strictly 2022 production and just thinking about the 2022 team, which you obviously can't do. But just looking at that,

I think I'd still lean story Chapman Frazier than Brian and Frazier. Though I totally understand what you're saying and where you're coming from on that. It's probably closer to like it's you say. it's it's Frazier Story Chapman well in that case for me then I would say I would counter and say well then it's actually Bryant Conforto and Frazier

is the other side of things and I'd rather have that second group because again I'm not saying don't spend that money on anybody I'm just saying give 25 and 125 125 to story or I don't know 4 and 80 to Conforto I think it's closer than people want to admit

because a lot of A lot of story's value is a shortstop. And he's not going to play shortstop for you, period. End of story. He's not going to do that. So now the pressure is really on the bat. And so, you know, I recognize it might be the low man on story. And I might be the low man on Chapman.

And obviously, if they get them, I'll be fine with it because those are upgrades. They are. Are they the impact bat that they need? I don't think so, which means you're really counting on your lineup to just be deep. And that could work. You can score a lot of runs with a, with a lineup of just not. 100 WRC plus guys because most teams don't have that.

But it's not ideal. And it puts a lot of pressure on your young guys to perform. And I just don't know if that's the best way to go. But it sounds like a way that the Mariners are very strongly considering. All right. We got two more questions to go here. Let's start with at we can't score on Twitter. Who asks besides the usual suspects,

and they put in parentheses here, Castillo, Sunny Gray, and NEA's starter. whom would you classify as a two or three that the Mariners should go get? I'm going to say, well, it depends on how you feel. I feel like Zach Gallen is a three. So I would say Zach Gallen. Colby? Yeah, he's kind of the more obvious one.

There's a reason that we keep mentioning those handful of guys. It's because they're the most obvious and they make the most sense. And there are good fits for Seattle. And the Mariners have expressed explicit interest in them. Yeah. So, I mean, like, there's a reason that those are the obvious names because they're obvious, right? And there's just not a lot of those guys out there. Like, who's another number two that's even available?

It's not a lot. There's not in free agency anymore, unless you want to consider Kershaw, but Kershaw's not coming to Seattle. So I think Gallin's a good one. I don't think he's a three. Would you say Rodon is a three? I don't trust him. so no.

Number three is the guy that I really want to trust. And I want, you know, like, I would rather my number three give me 180 innings of like four-fifth baseball than, hey, do you want this guy who might give you 180 of, you know, three-fifth baseball or this guy who might give you 25 innings of three-fifth baseball? And Roton doesn't have a super long track record of being hurt. But the fact that we haven't heard any team interested in him, like nothing. And his agent is Scott Boris, who famously makes stuff up to drive up markets for his clients. That's concerning to me. And the fact that when he came back from his injury, he was 92, 93 instead of 98, 99. Like there's a price point where Rodon makes a lot of sense.

And maybe it gets to that point for Seattle. But for me, I'm not giving him multiple years, to be honest. I would not feel all that good doing that. the other the other name uh again i don't i don't think he's a two or a three but he's good uh could be a three john means is the guy that's been out there a little bit um yeah but again really you start looking around mike minor isn't a three but maybe he's a four or five yeah maybe he's available um yeah i mean no i like mike minor as a five like if he's my five i feel okay um sure sure but yeah there's just not guys out there that are available

that really haven't been discussed there's only really I would say that there's only two number number three number two's still in the market and that's Montas and that's Castillo and everybody else I would say is a three or lower Pablo Lopez yeah right potentially Pablo Lopez depending on what the value

is there from from Miami side of things so yeah for me with with gallon it really depends on what you know like are the diamondbacks going to be realistic right which who knows they should be rebuilding but you know they they won't you know 26 year old who you know has a very high ceiling but just really hasn't gotten there yet and hasn't pitched above 120 dealt with some injuries this year, um, has only been worth four and a half wins and, in his last three,

you know, in his first three seasons. Um, you know, but high strikeout guy, you know, there's, there's definitely,

uh, more there than what you've seen from him in Arizona. Maybe it's the, um, you know, maybe a little bit of it as being on a bad Arizona team. So get him into a different situation, see what happens.

Um, I've always like Zach Ellen. So I would be really into that. I think that's, um, a pretty fun upside play if you're looking for a bit more upside that might not cost you as much as a frankie montes or louis castillo hopefully ideally because that's what he should be evaluated uh he should be evaluated below those guys but will the diamondbacks actually do that will they

actually be open to that probably not not but that's the guy that i would throw out there that's not any of the reds guys or any of the a's guys so thank you for the question let's move on to aden who has our last question of the day, who simply asked, what do you think the ALS standings order would be at the end of the year if none of the five teams make any more big news? I'd say, you know, Astro's got to be at the top. Yep. And then it kind of becomes a mess. I would say the Mariners are two, just because I don't believe in the Angels to actually

live up to expectations with that, you know, with all that offensive firepower that they have. the pitching is still not ideal I don't know what they're doing giving Noah Cindergarde $21 million for the year when they could have pretty much given the same A.A.V. For a longer term deal to Robbie Ray or someone. But, you know, never lost. So I'd say Angels 3, A's 4, Rangers 5.

Maybe Rangers 4? Do you think the Rangers are better than the A's? No, I don't. Because the question is if they don't make any more moves, well, Oakland's roster right now, still pretty good. Like arguably the best rotation in the division, one through five. They still have their corner guys.

I mean, they've only lost Mark Kana, really. Who's a good player? Don't get me wrong. But I still, like, if they didn't make any moves, I think you could argue Oakland has the second best roster. because I think their starting pitching is better than Seattle's still,

right now at least. I think their offense is better than Seattle's. Seattle has a better bullpen. So I think I can make a pretty strong argument that Oakland, again, if they don't make any more moves,

which we know they're going to, I could say that Oakland is the second best team in this division. So is that what you're going with? You're going Astros 1, A is 2? No. because here's the difference for me

between the A's, the Mariners, and the Angels. And I feel like as the roster sit right now, it's pretty close between those three teams. I think Seattle's bullpen is so much better than the other two that it counteracts because the angels have a pretty decent rotation.

It's Otani, it's Cinderguard, it's Lorenzen, it's Sandoval. That's pretty good. But there are a lot of questions. question marks there. And so again, just judging off of the roster as they sit right now, I think I probably put the Mariners second, the A's third, and the Angels fourth, but those three teams are all very close right now. As for where things stand at the end of the year, I would suspect the Mariners will have the second best roster at the end of the offseason.

But as for right now, I think those three teams are very close. And because the question specifically asked, if they don't make any more moves, I think the A's are a little legitimate wild card contenders. Any more big moves? Was the specific wording? Well, big moves would be trading Matt Chapman or Matt Olson or Chris Bassett or Sean Mania. So, yeah, I think the A's, I think the A's are either second or third as they stand

right now. I don't think that'll be the case come opening day. Well, on that note, that's going to do it for our show today. Thank you so much for joining us here on Lockdown Mariners for Colby Pat node. I'm Tidey and Gonzalez. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L0 underscore Mariners. You can follow me at Dan Gonzalez, S-A-N-E, G-N-Z-L-Z, and Colby at C-P-E-A-T-1-1. You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode.

And thank you again for making us your first listen of the day, just like you do here every day. Greatly appreciate the support. No episode tomorrow. Got some stuff going on tomorrow, but we will be back on Thursday. So be sure to check back in then. and but until then make your second listen of the day locked on bets your daily one-stop shop for all your gambling needs locked on bets hosted by your boy cue with expert analysis and insight from Lee Sterling and just like us their show is free and available wherever you get your

podcast so have yourself a beautiful baseball day and we'll see you on Thursday peace peace