Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Mailbag Time! What Do the Mariners Need to Happen to Make a Deep Postseason Run?

Episode Date: August 15, 2023

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Well, yesterday was an utter nightmare on multiple levels, both for this show and for the Mariners. But today is a new day. So let's take a chill pill and answer some of your questions. Colby, hit it. You are locked on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast, part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day. Ahoy, sailors. It is Tuesday, August 15th, 2023.

This is telling us all us. And Colby Patnaud for the Lockdown Marries podcast. Thank you so much for making us your first list and subscribe, like, and turn on alerts. watching on YouTube or subscribe and leave a five-star review on your preferred podcast platform if you like what you hear. And if you're part of the crew and rock with us every single day, let us know in the comments below. And if you want to hear from us even more, please consider signing up for our Patreon. You can now get a free seven-day trial to check out the show. The link as well as our social accounts is in the description of this episode. It's time to open up the old mailbag here.

We're going to start with Jace, who wants to know. It feels like the Mariners' offense regularly makes pictures that the league hits well against on average look really good. good what is it about their offense that makes them struggle so often and what can they do to change that in the future i i think it's really just based on matchup like if you even have an average slider that's working for you you're going to do some damage against this marries lineup like last night with brady singer that was kind of the issue so colby what do you think uh they fix it by hitting better sure yeah like i mean and is this really a thing like if cole irvin and brady singer Didn't just, you know, shove against you the last two days.

Is this a question? No, probably not, because for the most part, the Mariners have handled, you know, bad pitchers pretty well this year. So, yeah, right now this lineup, I think particularly this weekend, this last weekend, it was a really bad game plan, a really bad approach. They were not willing to work counts, and they were up there flailing at anything near the strike zone, and they weren't waiting for their pitch. I mean we saw that pretty much with Singer yesterday until what the eighth inning the seventh eighth inning

and then all of a sudden they were a little more patient they waited for the pitch they could drive they didn't miss it and oh what do you know they score six runs and two innings yeah I mean like Singer didn't even have good command last night like I felt a lot of the times the Mariners bailed him out like Mike Ford got to work to two oh count and then swung on a swung at a pitch that was either on the outside third of the zone or outside of the zone I can't remember exactly where it landed, but still, I just felt like he bailed him out with that swing decision. And I felt like the mayor just did that pretty consistently throughout the night until, yeah, we got into that eighth inning. Right. And they did it against Cole Irvin, and they did to a lesser extent, Braddish.

So, yeah, really the last few days have really kind of amplified this. But we start by the fact that it's not a good offense. It's average. You know, it's, it's decent. And if they have a good game plan, they can go up there and they could throw out runs against solid major league pitching. They even can on occasion ambush an ace here and there. But, yeah, just it's not a very deep lineup. It's not a lineup that's particularly producing well.

Again, Teosker still is not the Teosker we expected. Gino is shrieky. Cowrally is streaky. Julio's been streaky. Like you have a lot of guys. There's not a lot of consistency in the production. of this lineup. And so stuff like that's going to happen. And then when you add on top of it, bad game plan, bad approach, bad, pitch decision, like whatever you want to call it. Like, it's just bad. Like the game against Cole Irvin on Saturday was an embarrassment because Cole Irvin sucks. He's not a good pitcher. And he shoved it against you because you let him basically. You're swinging at everything that was remotely close to a strike. It didn't look like you had much of a game plan. And, you know, that's what happens. So you're not talented enough offensively to win on. talent alone. You have to have a good game plan.

You have to execute. And the Mariners sometimes don't because they really lack a couple just like quality consistent bats that they really need in this lineup. Next question here comes from Mickey. Same question as last week for me. What does it take for this Mariners

squad to be a legit deep playoff contender for instance? Miller becoming a legit number three pitcher. Julio being a 165 WRC plus guy. Gino being great. Teo coming back to 2022 form like what would it take with the team as is for me i think it all really comes down to julio can julio be the the star that kind of carries you can he be the guy that he was last night

right where he pulls off his best gregg jennings impression right putting the team on his back like that's what to me you need because you again like colby just said you're not talented enough offensively julio basically like if you're going to make a deep run into the postseason ALCS World Series, whatever, I think Julio has to just go on an absolute terror. I think he has to be Batman, but Batman needs his Robin as well, and that needs to be JP,

that needs to be Teo, that needs to be Gino, that needs to be Cal, that needs to be someone. He can't just do it on himself, even if he goes on an insane terror, but I do think that if you are going to make a deep run with how this roster is currently constructed,

that you need Julio to be just a mega star for four weeks. Yeah, I don't really think it works. that way though. Like there's no like there's no silver bullet for this team. It's not like, you know, hey, if Julio hits 155, like at 155 WRC plus the rest of the way, then they're going to the ALCS. Well, what if he's a 150? Like, does that mean they don't have a chance to go to the ALCS? No, of course not. I think when you look at, for me, what I look at is I need this bullpen to, um, to stabilize a little bit. It was really good immediately after the seawall trade. But the last three days,

Andres Munoz has had some questionable outings. Matt Brash had a bad outing yesterday. You know, they're an arm short, which we knew they were. They were probably an arm short before the Cwall trade, not to relitigate that, but they needed somebody to step up. And for a week, they got that. The last three days, bullpen hasn't been terrible. But we saw how, like, short they are when Trent Thornton is pitching to the middle of the lineup,

you know, an extra innings on Sunday. Like, yeah, we know that they're short. So they need to stabilize. They need to step up. And what that means, too, though, is that the starters have to go deep. Like, Bryce Miller cannot be a five and dive guy the rest of the year. Emerson Hancock can't be, you can't have two guys in your rotation that are only going to go five innings every time out. Because then what happens is you get a start like Logan Gilbert last night where he just does not have it.

And he can only go five. And now of a sudden you've got three days in a row where you're bullpenessed to cover four plus innings. And there's not a lot of days off baked off, baked into the rest of this year either. You've got a lot of days off before the All-Star break. You don't have a lot of them after. So for me, it really does come down to pitching. And I think the Mariners have talented enough pitching, but they still have to pitch well. And, you know, again, before Gilbert really kind of imploded last night, the Mariners rotation was more than doing their job.

The Mariners' bullpen needs to step up a little bit. And I think, you know, everybody else offensively, if they maintain what they've done for the last, you know, two weeks, three weeks, I think offense is good enough to go on a deep playoff run now because in the playoffs it's all about pitching so sure yeah it is but you know like we've said though is even if the pitching is elite you can't win game zero to negative one right you're going to have to score some runs especially with where this bullpen is because i don't think that it's going to be able to stabilize to a certain degree where there just lights out for the entirety of october so you're going to have to score some runs to go deep into october and i think again holio is the key to that right but that's where you can push

guys like Miller or Wu or Hancock into the bullpen and then you push those guys you need in the middle to the end. So all of a sudden, Topa is not, doesn't need to pitch the six because I'm just going to have Brian Wu do that. So Topa is going to pitch the eighth. But yeah, it's just one of those things. To make a deep playoff run, I think they can do it if they just get in. But I think to get in, the bullpen has to stabilize.

And yeah, they do need somebody. I would say it doesn't matter who. Like if it's Julio is just a 115 WRC. plus guy the rest of year, but Cal Raleigh's a 160. Right. Are we going to say, no, it has to be Julio? No, no, no. Just like having just trying to, you know, foresee like October. Like I think it would be Julio, right? Like, that's just the guy that I kind of target out. But that's because he's the side. He's the face of the franchise. Like, obviously like that guy on paper is going, you're going to go as far as I can take you.

If anybody in the playoffs can go play off Randy at Rose Arena for three weeks, it's Julio. Yeah. But I don't think he has to do that for the Mariners to make a deep playoff run. I just, I think you can't be terrible. Like, and you know,

since July, he's been totally fine. He's been good. So we'll see. But I, I, for me, it's more about pitching because I think pitching wins in the playoffs.

And so, yeah, I think you just need your offense to, you need, your pitching needs to be in a spot where if you score four runs in a playoff game, you feel like you have a 90% chance of winning that game. Yeah.

Yeah. But as we saw, you know, the pitching could be elite in the ALDS game three. And then because you couldn't score even a single run, you get eliminated that night. But you didn't need Julio to hit the home run. Carlos Santana could have done it. Carlis-Saintiff could have done it.

Yeah. Adam Fraser could have done it. I mean, yeah. Yeah. I remember when they had multiple chances with a runner on second, less than two outs. Couldn't do anything with that. Oh, you mean on Saturday? Yeah, on Saturday.

Saturday was a very similar looking game to the ALDS game three. Saturday was the worst. Like as yesterday was, Saturday was much worse. Saturday was painful. It was very painful. Yeah, I can't imagine having to sit through that in person.

Or game three of the ALDS. Another game you're at. Yeah. It was fun. Yeah. Maybe we found the common denominator here. It's you. It's your fault.

It's your fault that George Kirby has these amazing starting pitching performances and gets let down by his offense. It's not the Felix curse. Interesting. How many, how many Blue Jays Mariner games did you go to this year? Right. Good one.

Good one. Haven't heard that one before. Yeah. They lost two and the one they won is because you left early. So right. Careful. But, but the two playoff games that I went to,

they went to an O. Moving along. What's your record? What's your record and what's your record in postseason games you've gone to? I think one and one. Right. You went as a kid. to the was it the gian carlos gian squeeze spot was that the game that you said that you went to i don't know

it might be o and two i can't remember they won a game in seattle 2001 against the yankees and honestly i don't even remember why was that like the 97 playoff games so yeah moving along host boy all right host boy doing his job now all right so we got more questions to answer from you guys in just a moment but first a reminder this episode of the locked on mary's podcast podcast is brought to you by iBata picking up burgers and hot dogs for a summer barbecue no you're already doing it so why not get cash back for it with iBata iBata gives you cash back on hundreds of grocery items from produce to personal care to pantry goods so you can make sure you're beating inflation no matter what you're purchasing either link your loyalty account or upload your

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Right now, IBata is offering our listeners $5 just for trying I Bada by using the promo code MLB when you register. And you're listening to the Lockdown Mariners podcast. Thank you again for making us your first listen here. on a rare mailbag Tuesday. You can catch the Mariners and the Royals tonight from Coffman Stadium on the Mariners hometown broadcast with Sirius XM via the SXM app. Let's get back into your questions here.

We got one from the Darren McCacken and Joyer. With the roster expanding just around the corner, what do you see the M's doing and what would you guys personally do with this roster? Any sleeper picks on who should we keep an eye out for making it to the roster? We, especially tie, but not as much. as me love Darren McCacken. No. Well, we can start by saying

Darren McCacken ain't going to be it. It's not going to be Darren McCacken, yeah, I'll tell you that. It's most likely going to be one pitcher, one position player. It can only be. Yeah. Can it not be two position players?

I don't think there's a limit on position players. I think it's only on pitchers. Okay, well, whatever. We know it's not going to be. Sure. It's going to be one pitcher. It's going to be one position player. So who do you think that's going to be,

Colby? Uh, well, I think that they're going to DFA Ford. So I think Haggurty's going to stay up. When JP gets back? Yes. So if Haggertie's already up, um, then I think bliss is a possibility, but he's not exactly tearing it up down in AAA right now. And plus he's not on the 40 man and you don't have to add him to the 40 man this winter even.

Yeah. So if you're not sure he can help you, there's really no point in adding him because it's just, 40 man spot that you're wasting, um, wasting like he's not going to get called up early next year at some point. But still, right. You don't want to do that until you need to.

You don't want to use that roster spot if you don't have to over the course of the winter. Right. And is, is bliss going to force your hand on that right now. The answer is no. So kind of don't think it's bliss. Um,

but that being said, there's not a ton of 40 man guys down in triple A right now. Um, you call up Tremel, but Tremel is basically Mike Ford at this point. You're just putting them up there, hoping either walks or hits a home run. You can play some defense, which Ford certainly cannot.

And he's a decent runner, but he's not a burner or anything like that. So I think Tramels fit on the bench is a little bit more dubious than a lot of people think. So you kind of start looking around. And I think it's either Shiner or Deloche. And I think it's one of those guys because you can go into this winter and you can DFA them and not like feel awful about it. You know, I mean, like maybe they get claimed.

Maybe they don't, but it's whatever. You know, they're not like, and you're probably not going to have to DFA them. So I think I'd probably go probably Shiner, unless I'm forgetting something, just because you have a lot of lefty bats on the bench. Yeah. Like a lot of left hand hitting outfielders. And I think you're probably just looking for some power at that point. Like just give me somebody you can hit a home run and make for that reason. It's the same idea is Mike Ford.

It's right hand of Mike Ford. Right. But, you know, this one. hasn't failed multiple times at the big leagues. And he could actually fake it at third and he could play some first and he's a better athlete. Yeah, I don't know if you've seen him, but there's been some nice little highlights from him the last couple weeks at third base. Yeah. I don't know if there's like a change he's made there or something.

Yeah, I've actually read or I can't remember, but somebody put in the back of my head that like Shiner's not bad at third. It's not good, but he's totally acceptable there. So, you know, probably not going to take many starts away from. Gino down the stretch, but you never know. But yeah, I would say it's either Deloche or Shiner would be my guess, unless I'm forgetting somebody. I don't think I am, though. And then the pitching, that's an interesting one.

I think it's just the Brian Wu, like they add Brian Wu back. And then maybe they send down, maybe they send down Hancock or Wu to AAA for a couple weeks and then call them back up. But I think the 13 best pitchers minus Brian Wu are already on this roster. and then Wu would be the 14th. So I think that's how you do it. So it would be Wu, maybe some down, maybe you just put them up right away. And then you just send down right or Ryan or Isaiah Campbell or whoever.

So yeah, I think the answer is probably Shiner and Wu are the ads or Shiner and Hancock are the ads. Yeah. Yeah. There's also Pallander Barrella potentially, but he's still not throwing enough strikes. I just, yeah. That's pretty disappointing because I was, I was hoping he would be a bigger part of this thing moving forward. But well, all right.

Next question here comes from Anthony. Do we think Ty France has fixed anything? Seems like he said in the ball with more exit velocity and having some better at bats. So I actually have some numbers on this. I'm going to pull these up real quick. So in June and July, France had a 32.8% hard hit rate, 5.8% barrel rate, 87.4 mile per hour average exit velo. This month, though, the hard hit rate is up to 46.9%.

We'll call it 47%. 12.5% barrel rate, 88.4 mile per hour average X of VLO. And here's really the key. 19.8% whiff rate, which is the lowest in a month so far for France, as far as I'm aware. 23.5% chase rate. That's down. What's actually up, though, this month. this is the highest it's been all year for France 15.2% in zone whiff rate he's swinging and missing more on pitches inside the zone but thankfully he's not chasing as much which was a very uncharacteristic flaw for him especially the last couple of months so it does seem like I don't know if there's actually been a change that's been made but he is seeing the ball better I mean that's at least what the numbers say has

Is there, have you seen anything Colby that supports that? Watching Thai France? He seems to be kind of slowly migrating back to just like what Thai France always should have been, right? I think he's letting the ball travel a bit longer. We're seeing a lot more balls go up the middle into right field. Whereas, you know, when he was really struggling in July, he, everything was either a bad swing and a miss or he was popping it up to the left side. like he was trying to pull a lot of things. So I hope this is France's like realization or the Mariners realized or whoever.

Somebody has clued into the fact that like, look, you're not going to hit 25 home runs for us. And the fact that you're trying to is actually hurting us more than it's helping us. So go back to being what you are, which is, you know, a 270, 280, 280 guy, above league average on base, hit some doubles, hit the occasional home run. Just do that. And, you know, ex of Velos are nice and all, but that's never really been part of Ty Francis game anyways. You know, Francis is, you know, get hits for a relatively high average in the past because he uses the whole field and he'll go line to line. So I hope this is just, you know, understanding who Thai France is and maybe Ties made that realization.

Maybe it's the Mariners. I don't know. But he has looked a little better. There's still some really bad at bats. There's still some really bad chases. But he has looked better. And that's good to see, obviously, because you need, you need that guy. And, you know, kind of going back all the way to the first question.

what if you got what have you got first half of 2022 tie france for the next two months like that would be huge uh and that could count for a bat that honestly you were short uh so yeah hopefully this is this is a sign of things to come i'm still not pushing them up the order uh you know quite yet uh but uh yeah i think he has looked better uh but it has to continue for a couple more weeks before i'm going to buy in that you know tie france is is back but it has certainly look better the last few weeks. Next question here comes from BT. Do you think the reason Jerry seems to be prospect hugging is because

John Stanton has indicated he doesn't plan to play Kirby, Logan, Cal, etc. When the time comes, basically, quote, I paid Julio, figure the rest out. This would have better legs if the prospects Jerry was theoretically hugging weren't Michael Morales, Jonathan Clase, Alberto Rodriguez, et cetera. We're not talking about guys.

are going to be future five plus win players here like george kirby like polio etc like it's yeah i i i just i don't agree with with that i i feel like this is just kind of a way to let jerry off the hook for a mediocre deadline yeah trying to shift blame to somebody else um which again i will cancel appointments to shift blame on john stand cut off his mic nobody wants to hear from him anyways um but uh yeah i i i don't think so because gilbert's four years away from free agency kirby's five like this is like and it's not that you don't plan that far ahead but who knows where the mayor's payroll is going to be in five years who knows you know who else you're going to pay who you're going to bring in so no i don't think

this is jerry prospect hugging because you know stan told him i'm not going to pay kirby in five years. I think it's more about, you know, just Jerry didn't like the prices. And then Jerry is is being honestly slow to, you know, react to the new reality that, yeah, prices are higher now than they were three years ago. Fact. That's a fact. I mean, that's just the way it works. So I think that was another miscalculation on Jerry's part. And I don't think it has much to do with Stan telling him like i'm not going to pay george kirby in in 2027 like okay but so that means i should probably try to maximize kirby's window if i think i'm going to lose them in five years right so right yeah i don't buy that uh all right you got a few more questions here to answer but uh first a reminder

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That's Fanduel.com slash Locked-on, L-C-D-O-N. And you're listening to the Lockdown-M-A-R-Ras podcast. Thank you again for making us your first listen here on a rare mailbag Tuesday. Again, you can catch the Royals and the Marys Tonight on the Marri's hometown broadcast with Sirius XM via the SXM app. Check it out. Let's get back into these questions. M's fan Juan Carlos wants to know, try Justin Topa in the closer role. When he's on, he's got crazy good movement.

Seems a little more accurate than Matt Brash. I'm not knee jerk over Brash. He's more on than off by far. was just having a thought watching Topa last night. Colby, what do you think? I don't think the Mariners are opposed to using Topa in the ninth. I just think when you look at where they were yesterday, one run lead, one, two, three coming up for the Royals,

you use your best available guy, and that's Brash. Now, if one, two, three came up in the eighth, and you were up by one, then they'd probably use their best available guy, which is Brash. So I don't think that there's going to be defined roles. You know, Joe, Joe Doyle sent out a little nugget about how bad brash has been in the ninth inning, and it's been bad. But that is such a small sample size that it's hard to put any weight into that whatsoever. So, yeah, you know, Andres Munoz pitched the last two days.

It wasn't all that effective, honestly, but he wasn't available last night. And so that's just kind of how it goes. And again, when you have to, you know, go get your starter earlier than you want, it has a domino effect. guys have to cover the middle of the innings who you want to cover the back end. So, no, I don't really have a problem with Brash getting some save opportunities. I think it's very clear the Mariners would rather trust Munoz, like in those save spots than they would brash. But those are their two best guys. And so you got to keep going with them.

It doesn't mean that you don't sometimes see Sosato there. It doesn't mean that you don't sometimes see Topa there. But it does mean that it's not an innings-based role, right? It's not going to be. So no, if we get to, again, Brash may not be available tonight, but if he is and we get to a point in the, in the, you know, seventh, then it's one, two and three. And there's a runner on second with one out. They're probably going to Brash, you know, and they'll save Topa for the ninth or they'll figure out the ninth later. So I don't think like the innings base thing is, is a thing. But like if they need a to topa to cover the ninth because, you know, matchup dictates that Brash had to pitch the seventh and Munoz had to pitch the eighth or one of them's, not available and you had to use the other guy in the eighth. Yeah, I think they'd be pretty comfortable with that. Yeah, it's a matchup,

it's situational based, it's not ending space. I don't put really any stock into the whole ninth inning brash thing. Like, that's just the nature of Matt Brash. He's going to be wild and sometimes he'll be effectively wild and sometimes he'll be

terrible, just downright terrible. Can't find the strike zone. Like, guys are going to be patient. Like, that's just what it is. Oddly enough, last night was a, was a stuff issue for Brash. He didn't have his breaking stuff at all. Yeah. Yeah. It was flat. It was down in velocity. It was he just didn't have it. Yeah. Um, and we already know he's never going to have plus control either. So if he doesn't

have his stuff, it's over. Like you lose. Yeah. So that's just kind of the, the problem that you run into here with both Brash and Munoz because those two guys, they, they both operate very similarly where they are incredibly volatile on a night to night basis. Um, so it's just kind of the reality that you have to live with but you're also you're not going to stop going to those guys because when they're on i mean they're unhittable right you have those guys like when they're on they're the two best relievers in all baseball i mean they're they're up there yeah they're two young relievers like they're going to have more blowups than veterans would have been nice to have a veteran in the back end but again not to relitigate but you know whatever it is what it is baseball

we can do that on we can do that on ctze yeah yeah joshy roh going to. Dom Canzone with the big home run on Sunday. I know last night. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. Gave it right back the next day, didn't he? That was upsetting.

That was very upsetting. Yeah. Moving on. Next question here comes from Alex. Did this series, and they're talking about the Orioles series, because we obviously put out the tweet on Sunday. Does this series show that Julio shouldn't be in the lead-off respond even with the absence of J.P. Crawford? No. No. No. Next question. Next question here comes

from Extinguisher 10. How do you feel about Starbucks being plastered all over the park with the tagline all in for our hometown gross. Hate it. I don't care. But also gross because Howard Schultz is public enemy number one. Yes. As far as sports in Seattle are concerned at least. Yes. The is not lost on me, but also I don't care. Yeah. Also, get prepared for Starbucks to be the Jersey Patch, uh, sponsor for the Marrers. So yeah, just mentally prepare yourself. If you think the Marriers care about the PR backlash they would get for that,

you haven't been paying attention to the Maritors. Oh, no. No, no, no. On the 2080 scale rate Dom Canzon's home run pimp job and the ninth. This comes from Josh. 20 because they lost. He doesn't want to hand out participations. in trophies, obviously.

You don't get credit for almost beating the Royals last night. 80 grade. That was a nasty bat drop. It wasn't really a flip. It was a bat drop. But it was nasty. Bat drops are so much better than bat flips. Yeah.

So it's just like cold-blooded. Yeah. 80 grade. 80 grade. That was dope. I didn't know that Dom Kanzone had that kind of sauce on him. Easy. I mean.

Do we need to replay the sixth inning last night? Don't remind me of that. How many runs I lose by? Can you can you not right now? I've had a really bad last 24 hours. Can you just be nice? I've had a bad 72 hours, so I don't know what you're talking about.

I sat in the sun and watched that offense, swing like, you know, a blindfolded guy at a pinata against Cole Irvin of all teams. Yeah. All pitchers. So yeah,

I've had a bad 72 hours. So I don't know what to tell you. Catch a fly ball. It's not that difficult. sure to Oscar Hernandez does it every day you can too sure that's gonna do it for our show

Jerry cost to team the game yesterday we're really relitigating no I'm joking I'm joking we're at the 30 minute mark you're the one that always gets on to me about not finishing on time thank you so much for joining us here on the lockdown mariner's podcast for colby baton and I'm tidangans and I'm tidangonzal as be sure to give us a follow on Twitter

at L0 underscore mariners you can follow me at dan gonzalz and colby at c bout 11 that's CPA t 1 1st follow us on Instagram and TikTok as well over at Locked-on Mariners. That's one word, Locked-on Mariners. You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode. Thank you again for making us your first listen. Again, you can catch the Mariners and the Royals on the Mariners hometown broadcast tonight. Sirius XM via the SXM app.

Have yourself a beautiful baseball day, and we'll see you next time. Peace. See, the problem with that trade is... No.