Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Mailbag: Where Do the Mariners Rank in the American League?

Episode Date: February 20, 2023

We're back with another Mariners Mailbag Monday! On today's episode, we talk about Teoscar Hernandez and arbitration, our favorite draft class, some hot takes, Jarred Kelenic's new swing, and much more! We also announce our giveaway winner! Who is taking home the Vanilla Missile card? Found out in the second segment!Be sure to follow or subscribe to Locked On Mariners wherever you prefer your podcasts! For questions and other inquiries, email: [e-mail] the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @danegnzlz | @CPat11For more of Ty and Colby, check out their Patreon: patreon.com/controlthezone/Join our Slack!FanDuelMake Every Moment More. Place your first FIVE DOLLAR bet to get ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY DOLLARS in Free Bets – win or lose! Visit Fanduel.com/LockedOn today to get startedBuilt BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKEDON15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN)  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

On today's episode of Lockdown Mariners, where do the Mariners rank in the echelon of the American League? Plus, will the fact Seattle had to go to arbitration with Tay Oscar Hernandez impact the team's ability to keep them in the Pacific Northwest long term? All that and more coming up here on mailbag Monday. Colby, hit it. You are Locked on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked on podcast network. Your team every day. It is Monday, February 20th, 2023.

This is Taday Gonzalez and Colby Pat. Locked-on Mariners podcast. Thank you so much for making us your first listen, subscribe, like and turn on alerts if you're watching on YouTube or subscribe and leave a five-star review on your preferred podcast platform if you like what you hear. And if you want to hear from us even more, please consider signing up for our Patreon. The link as well as our social accounts is in the description below. It is Mailback Monday, the show where we answer your Mariners questions. And at the midway point of today's show, we'll be announcing the winner of Colby's autograph Walter Ford Card. So look forward to that. But let's get into these questions to kick things off.

starting with Daisy and the dingo who asks us simply as rosters currently stand the mariners are the blank best team in the american league and why colby i'll let you start naturally um i i would say uh say third or fourth i think is is probably the right way to look at i still think houston's is a little bit better i think the yankees roster is better um and then i think it's it's kind of a battle between Toronto in Seattle. It's kind of, you know, what type of team do you prefer? I'd still give the edge to Seattle and the starting pitching in bullpen departments. I think the Blue Jays have a slightly more impactful lineup, but the Mariners lineup certainly

isn't that far behind. And then defensively is kind of a pick your poison type of thing because that's all about eye test and metrics and things like that. I think Seattle's clearly better than anybody. in the Central. And then you look at kind of the rest of the way. I think they're better than the raise. I think they're better.

Certainly than the Red Sox. And they're better than Texas, Anaheim. So yeah, I think they're third or fourth. I think that's the only place you can really put them. Maybe fifth if you want to, if you want to squeeze,

you know, Tampa ahead of them, I guess. But to me, they're pretty solidly third or fourth. I think that they're definitively third. third. I'm not entirely sold on Toronto just yet. I like the offseason that Toronto has had and kind of pivoting and, you know, folks seem more on defense, especially in the outfield, but still I kind of

have to wait and see, especially with that pitching staff. I just, the Mariners can pitch. And that's, that's the big key here. And they have arguably, you know, a top two pitching staff when you factor in both their starting rotation and bullpen and the American League. I think really only the Astros are better than they are. And, you know, and the Astros took a significant hit with Verlander there as well. So I think the gap has kind of closed between those two pitching stops as well. But I think, yeah, I agree with you. I think the Yankees are still ahead of them.

I think the Astros are still pretty far ahead of them. Well, not super far ahead of them. But I think there's a pretty, you know, a fairly large gap there still that needs to be closed. But overall, yeah, you know, this team is better than any team in the AL Central right now. it's better than the raves it's significantly better than the Orioles or the Red Sox anyone like that And you know

We've talked at length about how much we feel the The Rangers are being overhyped right now And the Angels I mean Again angels have done some nice things this off season They have two of the best players in the world And yet they haven't been able to finish above 500 The last seven years so I I can't put any stock into them

In the preseason that's just a that's another wait and see type of scenario just like it is what's Toronto. But yeah, I think Seattle's definitively third right now on the AL. And I think, you know, a couple things happen here. I think they, they surpass the Yankees and they get pretty close here to Houston as well. And really, we just kind of have to see with Houston in particular, like how much does the loss of Verlander impact them? You know, is Hunter Brown actually the guy, you know, that everyone says that he is? Is he going to be able to fill that hole? Is Framber Valdez going to be able to become the ace of that staff, essentially, along with, you

know, Lance McCullors and Christian Javier. That's, you know, the pitching is just really the big determining factor for me here. And the Mariners not only have one of the best rotations in baseball, but they also have guys that are behind their one through five right now that are really interesting that could have a pretty big impact on the team this season like Bryce Miller. So, yeah. All right. Next question here comes from Alex, who asks, what would be more important to the Mariners?

Jared Kelnick being at least an average major league bat or George Kerr. being a Sy Young Award candidate. Colby? Who says George Kirby isn't a Cy Young Award candidate right now? Here's your early fan duel tip, guys. Plus 8,000 on Kirby to win the Cy Young. I mean, I'm not going to say it's easy money, but you're not getting better odds. More important to the Mariners long term, or just even this year, I think it's Kelnick being average because I feel like there's a Florida Kirby that is essentially

what we saw last year, which was, what, a number three starter? I mean, so, yeah, Kirby doesn't have that far to go to be a Sion contender. Kalnick has a long way to go to be average. And if Kelnick is average in the outfield at the plate, and obviously he's going to be above average defensively, then the Mariners' biggest hole on their entire roster has just been filled by a young, talented, cheap player with tons of upside still. So for me, it's Kalnick, and I said this at the beginning of the offseason. I'll continue to say it.

Jared Kelnick being good would be more impactful than any realistic acquisition the Mariners could make in the winter. And so we'll have to see if it plays out. But yeah, if Kelnick is good, the Mariners are going to challenge the Astros, assuming everybody else is healthy and performing the way we think they can. Yeah, 100% agree. Because even if Kirby isn't a Cy Young Award candidate, he's going to be at least a solid number three in the middle of your rotation. Jared Kellnick being, you know, an average major league hitter changes the makeup of your lineup. And this team really, like, its biggest weakness right now is the ability to score runs still.

You know, we still don't know if this lineup is viable enough to consistently score runs on a nightly basis. They've done a lot of things over the course of the last few months to improve this lineup. But, you know, there's still, you know, a couple of question marks here as well with the DH and with the left field spot. So if Kelnick can be an answer there. and I mean, you know, this isn't just for this season, but long term as well, it has significant ramifications for the Mariners. So, yeah, it's absolutely definitively Jerry Kalnick here.

Because even if Kirby's not, you know, an elite pitcher, he's still going to be really good. And you add him into the mix with a Logan Gilbert and a Robbie Ray and a Luis Castillo and a Bryce Miller. Like, your rotation is sick. Like there aren't many rotations out there in baseball that are better than yours, even if George, Kirby is just kind of, you know, a little bit above average, right? Just kind of in that in between of being a Salyong guy and, you know, like an all-star caliber pitcher, I guess I would say. All right.

Let's do one more question here before we talk about Panduel. This one comes from Nate Davis. What draft class under Depoto has been your favorite? I really like this question. There's a couple of really interesting answers here. I mean, you can't really go wrong with 2018. 2018 for you it it's 2019 2019 yeah yeah yeah I mean 2021's pretty fun too when you think about harry Ford and edwinner royal michael morales and bryce miller like it's really yeah that's nice class

yeah let me do 2019 here tie all right okay george kirby yeah future si young award winner brandon williamson yeah who you know helped you land gino and jessey Isaiah Campbell. Reliever extraordinaire, Levi Stout, who also helped you land. Was he? Yeah, he was part of the... Which Reds trade was he a part of? I think he was part of the Castillo deal.

Yeah, the Castillo deal. I get them mixed up. They happen so close together. Tim Elliott, whatever. Austin Shitten, who you flip for Diego. Adam McO., who helped you land Tay Oscar. Carter Benz helped you land Tyler Anderson. And then you just kind of look at some of the guys who are still around that are interesting.

Logan Reinhardt's interesting. Travis Coon is interesting. In the 20th round, you drafted Cade Marlowe, who, you know, looking like a pretty big piece there. So when you kind of look at this draft class and you say, who did they get and who do they keep and what did they do with these picks? I mean, they added George Kirby. They're going to add Isaiah Campbell this year and probably Cade Marlowe out of this draft class. and they've used Williamson and Stout, Shenton, and Maco to help them acquire Luis Castillo, A. Eugenio Suarez, Jesse Winker, Diego Castillo, and Teosca Hernandez. That's a home run draft.

Like, it doesn't matter what the other picks are. That's the home run draft. It's a really good draft. Now, the question, of course, wasn't what is objectively the best draft they've had. It's just what's your favorite? 2021 is my favorite just because there's some really fun players in there. I see. Ty doesn't care about quality when he picks favorite.

He just, which explains his picking Spider-Man movies, but, clearly you hate Bryce Miller and Harry Ford. That's what you're saying, right? You shut your mouth. But,

no, 2021 was also very good. Like you said, I mean, obviously the top two prospects in the system are from the 2021 class. And Edwin Arroyo helped you land Luis Castillo. So, I mean, yeah, to me, it's one of those two drafts. It really is.

2018 is pretty fun, though, too. I mean, you get Logan and Cal. Yeah. Yeah. Like, that's pretty impressive. So really. Two guys who literally helped you clench the, uh, yeah, your first playoff birth in 20 years that night.

So it's a good one. Yeah. Yeah. The, uh, really took to Poto a couple draft classes to kind of get going. And then he had the weird, uh, the, weird shutdown year where Hancock goes six, but the draft's only five rounds. So it's a little tough to judge that one yet, but not looking too great. But other than that, you know, 2018, 2019, 21 and even this last year's draft, they're all looking pretty promising early on,

or even not in some cases early on, but they're pretty good at this is what I would say. All right. We got more questions coming up here in just a moment, but real quick, a reminder of this episode of Lockdown Mariners is brought to you by Fandul. The midway point of the NBA season is here, and now is the perfect time to download Fandul, America's number one sportsbook, because new customers get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000. That's bonus bets back if your first bet doesn't win. Just download the Fandualsportsbook app. It's safe, secure, and super easy to use. Plus, Fandual even lets you combine your bets for a chance at a bigger payout with a same game parlay. So don't miss the chance to get your no-sweat first bet up to $1,000 in bonus bets when you go to

Fanduel.com slash locked on. That's Fanduel.com slash LOC, KEDON to learn more. Then you can maybe put some money down on that plus 8,000 for George Kirby to win the American League's not young. Make every moment more with Fandual, an official sports betting partner of the NBA. And you're listening to the Lockdown Mariners podcast. Thank you again for making us your first listen. So before we get back into these questions, Colby, let's announce the winner of the giveaway

that you started up last week for the signed Walter Ford baseball card. Yeah, so if you guys are curious, the methodology is pretty simple. We had five videos last week. I pulled up a random number generator, asked it to pick a number between 1 through 5, 1 equals Monday, 5 equals Friday. You guys get the idea. The winner was picked from Wednesday's video. I put that into a random comment picker software. That's available anywhere.

you guys can look them up. Put in the link to the video and it, it's sifted through the comments and I asked them to randomly pick one. And it picked a commenter from, or I picked a comment from subscriber, Extinguisher 10. So congratulations to Extinguisher 10. You have won the Walter Ford card.

You have a couple of days to, to claim the card. And just go ahead and shoot us an email. with Lockdown Mariners at e-mail.com or you can reach out to us on Twitter via the locked-on Twitter account. However you want to get a hold of us, it's fine. And then there'll be another step

that we'll need you to do to verify that this is indeed you, but we'll get to that once you send us an email. So yeah, just send us an email. We'll get this thing started. We can get this card shipped to you by this week. All right. Congrats to Extinguisher 10. Hope you enjoy your vanilla missile card.

Let's get back into these questions, starting with Rubin. It might be late on this one, but how could the arbitration hearing affect Hey, Oscar Hernandez's relationship with the Mariners? Bonus, what kind of player do you think Julio wants to be? To answer your last question, just really quick, or the second question, just really quick, I think he wants to be the greatest of all time. You know, that's how he carries himself, essentially. So, yeah.

for your first question yeah so you know the mariners and tay oscar nannes went to arbitration uh last week uh the mariners won um what i would say about this is this isn't necessarily a corbin burns situation i i know a lot of people see how the brewers handled the the corbin burns uh thing and and you know what corvin burns outright said to the media about how it impacted his relationship with the team um and that you know freaks some people out but this is a little bit different, right? Because, you know, Corbyn's obviously been with the Brewers his entire career, you know, perennial side young candidate. And they were saying things like, oh, you were the, you were part

of the reason that we didn't make the playoffs and all this stuff, over $740,000. Pretty much every projection had the, had Tay Oscar at around $14.1 million. I think that's what he ended up getting here. And that's what the Mariners value to Matt. He wanted 16. And so that's a pretty big disparity between those. those two numbers. So I don't think that that's necessarily a similar situation. Now, could it still impact the relationship? Sure, depending on, you know, how realistic Tay Oscar thought that number was and how, you know, how much he feels that he should be valued at that number, et cetera. But that's

ultimately, you know, a Tay Oscar thing, right? That's not, I think the Mariners valued him appropriately when you look at all the projections, right? At the end of the day, it's only two million dollars we can make that argument on and on and on and obviously tay oscar is is worth more than you know 14 or 16 million dollars given just what other players at his position are making um but yeah i i just you know kind of juxtaposing the two situations i i don't think there's really anything that suggests that or there's anything really that jumps out to me that says like this relationship is is going to fall apart that they're not going to be able to keep him in seattle long term because of this.

But again, that's, that's ultimately up to Tay Oscar and how Tay Oscar feels about the situation. So. Yeah. Yeah, the $2 million difference was the largest between player and team this year. And it's, it's pretty sizable. But, you know, like Ty said, because there isn't a long track record between the

player and the organization, there's very little that the organization could have said that, Hey, Oscar could take personally. There really isn't because he doesn't have any, you know, he doesn't, he hasn't laid down any foundation here. So they're not going to attack his character. They're not going to, you know, ask about his contributions to, you know, the playoff run last year because those don't exist.

So it's very just, you know, kind of, this is what he's done. This is what this type of player has typically gotten. We adjusted for inflation. You look at what all the projections say. This is about what you should get. And that's why we came up with that number. So, I mean, it was probably a very sterile. Most of these are.

There's really arbitration cases don't get explosive ever. But no, I don't really don't think this affects their long-term outlook anyways. And you need to remember, Seattle didn't acquire Teoska Hernandez to have him for the next six years, right? If they get him for the next six years, fine. But they acquired him to have him for this year. So I really don't think that this is going to put any kind of strain on the relationship. If Teosker likes it here and he gets to. a number that the Mariners are comfortable with, then they could still easily work out a long-term

extension. I don't really don't think this is that big of a deal. I know some people are, you know, fanning the flames and like, this is a disaster and oh my God, how dare they sour the relationship that doesn't exist. But it's going to be fun. Yeah, it's just a very different situation compared to some of these others, like a, like a Corbyn Burns. And so, you know, again, like I said, It's all up to Tay Oscar at the end of the day. If Tay Oscar feels slighted, you know, then Tay Oscar just feels slighted and that's what it is, right? Right.

But, you know, I don't think the Mariners really stepped out of line here. They went along with what everyone else was projecting him to get. So I wouldn't really put a ton of blame on the Mariners in this situation if something, you know, if the relationship is strained by this. So, all right. Next question comes from Max. if either which new mariner is more likely to regress this season and why? Teo or Wong.

I'll just say Colton Wong. I don't think either one of these guys are really going to regress, but I'll say Wong just because he's done it for a less amount of time. You know, he's hit for, you know, he's been a, you know, plus or an above 100 WRC plus guy for like two years, really. But also there's some changes that he's made that suggests that that's sustainable. So if I had to pick one of the two, I'd just say Wong because Teosker has more track record, but that's really about it. That's not a great answer. But yeah.

Yeah, also Teo's overall numbers last year were kind of bogged down by an injury. And once he was fully healthy, he exploded. So, yeah, Teo is going to be fine. And I really think Wong's going to be fine. But if I have to pick one, that's going to regress it, it'd probably be Wong, but we're not talking about regressing to Adam Frazier. levels, right? We're talking about going from a 117 WRC plus to like a 105 100 type of WRC plus guy. And then Teo, I feel very good. If Teo's healthy, he's going to produce. I feel very good about that. Yeah, agreed. All right, we got a couple more questions to go over here in just

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brownie batter and shiro you can thank me later you're listening to the locked on mariners podcast let's wrap up mailbag monday with a couple more questions from you guys this one comes from nicholas how excited are you about jared kelnick's new swing not at all not at all not at all could not care less yeah man uh jared has changed his swing and his setup and his set up and What's the change he's made to a swing? Tell me from that one side video. Tell me what the change is. Exactly.

I have no clue. I have no clue. I'm not a swing doctor. But yeah. So I don't know. We've seen him make changes at the plate constantly. And it hasn't really led to anything in the past. So why should I feel differently now?

Especially off of, you know, a couple of videos on the backfields. the Peoria sports complex. I don't, I hate to go full Colby here, but I really, I don't care about this. I don't, I don't at all.

I need to see it in game. I need to see him have success against major league caliber pitching with these changes before I get on board with any of this. Because right now, it's nothing.

It means nothing at the end of the day. And I'm not, yeah, you know, I'm not smart enough to decipher what exactly he's done off of a couple of videos from a side angle, you know, in the dugout, like, or whatever it is.

It's about as tangible as Robbie Ray's splitter right now. It doesn't exist as far as I'm concerned. Until I see it, until I see it work against big leaguers, I don't care what it looks like. It has to produce. By the way, what is with, what is with everyone learning splitters this off season? Matt Festa now has a splitter. And Pete Woodworth today was talking about how, like, everyone in the Mariners rotation has like something new to showcase like what's what's going on here but why is why is the

splitter like the flavor of the month for the mariners i don't know gilbert we got right we got ray we got festa we got is is kirby working on a splitter i wouldn't be surprised like kirby's working on a new change up grip apparently so there we go there we go yeah insane i don't i don't get it it used to be the counter but now the splitter. I think the splitter is the new meme at this point. All right. Wifski has our final question of the day. Question for both Ty and Colby. What are your spiciest hot takes for the Mariners this season? I'll start. Evan White becomes one of the most valuable utility players in the org by demonstrating plus outfield plus first base potential and finally creating offensive production. I'm going to save my hottest take for a for a future show that we're doing when we do our

but I'll give you I'll give you one though Isaiah Campbell's going to be a top four reliever in the Marius bullpen this year Colby said spicy it's not super spicy because my spiciest takes are being I'm saving them

for when we do our predictions first of all I reject the notion that being able to play the outfield and first base makes you a utility player try again whiskey but that's a pretty good take.

I tried not to laugh when I read that. Yeah. But still, that's a pretty good take. If you think Kevin White's going to come up and introduce offensively enough to be in the lineup every day. And that's a good one. That's pretty spicy. Yeah. And there's just enough evidence there that you're like, maybe.

Like, it's just possible enough that you're like, yeah. All right. Another one, Cade Marlow is Chas McCormick. Against righties or against lefties? I'm just saying just what he brings overall value-wise, like defensively, get on base a little bit. Maybe he's like a post-season hero type of dude.

That's more what I'm referring to. Okay. I will say... Do you disagree? What's the okay about? The dude struck out like 38% of the time in the high miners. That's the okay. That's why it's a spicy take.

All right. You can judge how spicy it is. Julio, which automatically doesn't make it as spicy as it can be. Julio goes 40-40 this year. I like it. Yeah, we actually had another question. I forgot to put it in here, but someone asked if it was more likely if Julio would hit over 300.

or hit 35 bombs this year, and I would take the 35 bombs pretty easily. I don't think Julio's... I don't know if Julio's a plus 300 average guy. Didn't he hit like 286 last year? Yeah, but I feel like that's kind of like... I don't know. I feel like he's just going to be, you know,

in the 280-290 range for his whole career. I don't know if he's a plus 300 guy. Maybe. I mean, he very well could be. like he's obviously got that talent. I just feel like it's more likely for him to hit 35 bombs than it is for him to hit over 300. Maybe he does both. Yeah, I don't want to say anything is unlikely with Julio.

True. So. Sky's the limit with the dude. So yeah. Yeah, this is a tough question for me because as you guys know, I'm not really one for hot takes. So. Neither am I, man. I just want to talk about ball, you know, like I don't, like, I don't want to, you know, make these loud, yeah, I just, I just, you know, I don't want to make these loud proclamations that are never going to come true. And then I just look like an idiot. And like, that's, that's not fun to me. I feel like you'd be. I look like an idiot anyway.

Yeah. Yeah. Well. Yeah. So spicy's hot take. Um, oh, okay. Uh, Matt Brash. Okay. Leads the team and saves. who cares about saves I don't know I mean I mean there's some of you that are watching right now that definitely care about saves

but like I don't care about saves I don't either but that's why I think it's kind of spicy because a lot of people are like oh saves means you're the best reliever and no not at all actually naturally naturally I mean as we all know Fernando Rodney in 2014 was the best reliever at all baseball

hey you will not be smirch Fernando Rodney on this podcast I will not allow it I'm not I'm not but smirching him. I'm just being realistic about him. Get to your outro. You have solely yourself. I love Fernando. I love Fernando. Too late. You tried to save him, but he can't. All right. Well,

that's going to do it for our show. Thank you so much for joining us here on the lockdown Mariner's podcast for Colby Pat Note. I'm Taday Gonzalez. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L0 underscore Mariners. You can follow me at Dan Gonzalez. That's C-A-N-Z-L-Z and Colby at C-P-E-E-E-E-C-B-A-T-1. You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode and thank you again for making us your first listen now make your

second listen locked on MLB prospects host lindsay crosbie is a prospect encyclopedia and he's going deep on the MLB stars of tomorrow it's free and available wherever you get your podcast just like us and with that have yourself a beautiful baseball day and we will see you tomorrow peace