Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Mailbag: Will Jarred Kelenic Finally Find His Swing?

Episode Date: December 19, 2022

It's time for another Seattle Mariners Mailbag Monday! On today's installment, the guys tackle questions about Jarred Kelenic, and Max Kepler, how the shift bans impact players, how we analyze players, remaining free agents, the value of the #5 rotation spot and more!Be sure to follow or subscribe to Locked On Mariners wherever you prefer your podcasts! For questions and other inquiries, email: [e-mail] the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @danegnzlz | @CPat11For more of Ty and Colby, check out their Patreon: patreon.com/controlthezone/Join our Slack!BetOnlineBetOnline.net has you covered this season with more props, odds and lines than ever before. BetOnline – Where The Game Starts! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Do the Mariners need to add another starting pitcher? Can Jared Kelnick finally turn things around in 2023? And why do we like Max Kepler just so much? Well, we'll answer all that and more here on the Locked On Mariners podcast. Colby, hit it. You are Locked on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day.

It is Monday, December 19th, 2020. This is Tadine Gonzalez and Colby Patnaud for the Lockedon. Mariner's podcast. Thank you so much for making us your first listen. Subscribe, like and turn on alerts. If you're watching on YouTube or subscribe and leave a five-star review on your preferred podcast platform, if you like what you hear. And if you want to hear from us even more, please consider signing up for our Patreon. The link as well as our social accounts is in the description below.

It is Mailbag Monday here on Lockdownms. We're going to answer some of your Twitter questions. But before we get into those, a couple of notes here. One, if you missed it, starting today, we, along with the rest of the lockdown MLB network will be going from five shows a week to three shows a week until pitchers and catchers reports. So sometime in mid-February,

we personally are planning on posting episodes Monday like today, Wednesday and Friday. And if you want to still get your Mariners fixed from us on Tuesdays and Thursdays, we are switching up our schedule on Patreon to accommodate that and posting our episodes on Patreon

every Tuesday and Thursday during this time. for the next couple of months that's how the schedule is going to work out and you can check us out on patreon at patreon.com forward slash control the zone uh second of all we have started a slack channel for all of our listeners it is free to join if you don't know what slack is maybe you're familiar with discord it's basically like discord it's a chat room overall uh for our listeners and for us to all interact with one another uh the link to that i'm going to assume is going to be in the description of this video and the show on on your preferred podcast platform thirdly colby has put together his next chapter of his uh the plan series uh where he looks at this past

season for the mariners it's an hour long uh it is fantastic check it out it's on the true to the trident uh youtube channel uh and you can go over there you can roast him you can congratulate him on finishing the video you can do whatever you want you can do whatever you please as long as you watch it, really. As long as you watch it, we appreciate it. I'm sure Colby appreciates that. Fourthly, I guess, I want to direct you guys over to the Lockdown Orioles podcast after you're done watching this. I joined Connor Newcomb over there to talk about a potential Chris Flexen or Marco Gonzalez trade with the Orioles. So we had about a 20-ish minute discussion over there. Pretty interesting. So if you want to check that out, go over there.

Fifthly, the link to the video will be in the description down below. I suppose I should probably put the crossover episode also in the description down below. So that's a lot going on. And I am tentatively scheduled to join Ethan Smith over on Lockdown Pirates on Thursday to talk about who else? Brian Reynolds. We'll let you know if that changes. But it sounds like I'll be talking to Ethan over at Lockdown Pirates. So, yeah, lots going on.

Nice. That's fun. All right, let's get into these questions. First question comes from Grant. Grant says, I hear you guys talk about WRC Plus and batters that control the zone, but what are some statistics and key attributes the M's front office utilizes or tends to look for compared to other front offices as a newer, as a newer Mariners fan, just trying to learn the front office.

So Colby, specifically, I don't know which stats the Mariners prioritize over others. because obviously we're not in the building. But we do know that they also have their own formulas for certain things, correct? Yeah, they actually have a formula that they use control the zone formula, I think is what it's called. It's kind of a unique stat to them. But it's really not. It's something that all front offices look at. Essentially, what you're looking for is you want to, you want to strike out the other team more than they strike you out.

and you want to draw more walks than you give away. It's really basically that simple. It's all about that's how you control the zone, is that you're striking out more hitters than you're allowing your opponent to and you're drawing more walks than you're giving up to your opponent. That's basically what it comes down to. So when you're looking at statistics,

generally speaking, the Mariners like players who have above average based on ball percentages, walk percentages. Major League average is about 8%. So you get into the 10 plus, that that's a really good thing the Mariners look at and strikeout percentage. How many of their at-bats end in a strikeout?

Major League average is, I believe right now, 23% roughly for strikeout percentage. So anything below that is going to be something the Mariners look at, the front office looks at. So if you get to a point where you have a greater than 10% walk rate and lower than 20% strikeout rate, the Mariners are probably interested in some degree, but most front offices would be in a player like that.

And there are exceptions to that rule. I mean, a E. E. E. E. E. E. Hino-Svarez strikes out a lot. The Mariners wanted him because he also walks and he has home, and he hits power. You know, he has home run power. So there are exceptions. It's not a golden rule or anything like that. But typically speaking, you want to find out who controls the zone really well. Look for pitchers who strike guys out, but don't walk anybody. Look for hitters who walk a lot relative to the rest of baseball.

And strikeout numbers are down. That's essentially what control the zone is. It's pretty simple. And like you said, that's what pretty much every ball club is looking for. At least the smart ones, right? At least the contenders. Some don't care as much as others, but in general, yeah. Yeah.

Some are willing to just, you know, sacrifice certain things for the town. The Phillies, for example. Yeah, the overall. Yeah, exactly. Right, like they don't care about defense at all, particularly in the outfield. Like, they do not care a single bit. The raise typically don't care about strikeout rate, or at least they don't from year to year. Houston did.

They really did care the first time they built up their first championship team. So it just kind of varies. But for the most part, control the zone is all about strikeouts and walks. Yeah. All right. Let's move on here to the next question comes from Tyler. Tyler wants to know, I feel like you guys slightly overvalue the number five spot in the rotation. They usually don't pitch in the postseason and Marco slash flexen have been good enough to maybe stay in the rotation.

Are you guys mainly protecting another spot in the rotation from injury or am I overlooking something? Colby? Yeah, I think the reason you have to consider the number five spot, first of all, you're right. They hardly ever pitch in the playoffs, at least as a starter. Now, they may pitch out of the bullpen, which is why you would like your number five starter to have some upside so that it makes sense to throw them out of the bullpen,

unlike Marco or really flexing for that matter. But we also need to remember this, that the number five spot in your rotation is going to make 32 starts. They're going to cover 180 innings, and you want them to cover a lot of innings so that you can use your bullpen a little bit less. I mean, having a bad number five starter who only goes three to four innings every time out is going to tax your bullpen in the next few days afterwards.

And that's not what you want. So you have to pay attention because they're still going to start, you know, roughly one-fifth of your games. They're still going to account for roughly, you know, one-sixth of the innings. And you want to win as many regular season games as possible so that you can maybe win a division, right? So in the playoffs, the number five starter doesn't really matter. all that much, but in the regular season, it still does matter. And you want an above average pitcher in that spot. You can survive with flexen and Marco, but if you go out and you get a, like a number three, right?

And he's your de facto number five. You're going to win over a lot of other teams number fives. And that gives you an advantage as you cycle through your rotation. So you're partly right about, you know, the number five starter typically doesn't start in the playoffs. But you still want that guy to be useful in the playoffs. and you want a good number five so that you can get to the playoffs. It's still an important role. And also for me, and I know I'm probably being spoiled and greedy.

Catch my drift. But I would like to add someone to the rotation if possible, and this is probably not possible at this point, but someone that could potentially push down, you know, Robbie Ray into that spot or Logan Gilbert or George Kirby, whoever you feel is the worst of the four remaining pitchers that are not Marco or flexing in that rotation. And I know a lot of you would prefer if Robbie Ray didn't pitch in the postseason, though.

I think Ray is going to be a lot better this upcoming season. But that's a whole other conversation. But yeah, really, it's just about getting deeper. And like if you have the ability to go out and add that luxury, because that's really what it is at the end of the day, you can survive with Chris Flux and Marco Gonzalez as your number five. That's totally fine. But if you're able to afford that luxury, if that opportunity presents itself to you, take it. Take it. Don't be afraid to take it.

Yeah, exactly. All right. So we got more questions coming up here in just a moment. But real quick, a reminder of this episode of Lockdown Mariners is brought to you by BetOnline. As I get the overlay up, betonline.net is your number one source for sports betting info, stats, news, and analysis. Get the latest odds and trends for every professional and amateur league out there from pro football to college bowl season and basketball. We've got it all over at betonline.net. And if you love sports podcast, you can even find those at Bet Online as well.

We're always the fastest and easiest way to get your betting info. Head to the website today or use your mobile device to learn more. Bet Online is where the game starts. You're listening to the Locktime Marries podcast. Thank you so much for making us your first listen. Let's get back into these questions here on Mailbag Monday, starting with Jace. Jace wants to know, are there any free agent bats left that are worth the investment at this point? or should we put our hope in a Brian Reynolds trade

or some other under the radar trade? So if you guys missed it over the weekend, J.D. Martinez signed. Michael Brantley signed. He's going back to the Astros. Martinez is going to the Dodgers. Justin Turner also signed with the Red Sox. So some bats are starting to come off the board. But I'm seeing, you know, on Twitter,

and I know that probably none of these names that I'm going to mention are going to excite anyone, but they're still pretty solid. But like I keep on seeing this thing on Twitter and just everywhere that you go for, you know, Mariner's discussion that there's just no one worth a damn left on the market. And I don't think that's true. Colby's going to mention Will Myers, obviously, Will Myers. A.J. Pollock, we know that they're apparently in on him, even though the guy reported that reported that deleted the tweet. I still think that they're probably in on A.J. Pollock. It just makes so much sense.

And I know that they're after a right-handed bat right now for the corner outfield spot. but David Peralta maybe Bralta is pretty solid and I think he's going to be a sneaky good addition to whatever contender I'm going to assume that he signs a contender ends up signing him Michael Conforto still out there of course and there's obviously the you know the Pacific Northwest connection

with Conforto so there's still names there are still interesting guys that would make the the Mariners let's just say it's significantly better even guys that are you know one and a half to two war guys like that's still a pretty significant upgrade over what the Mariners have right now on their roster. Is there anyone else that I didn't mention that stands out to you? Honestly, I wasn't listening. So I'm going to go with guys like Brandon Drury.

It's a pretty interesting guy. Jerks and ProFar is boring but useful. Yeah, I don't think there's anybody out there in free agency right now that you're going to do backflips over. Like you have the Mariners acquire, but, you know, there are some solid players who help. and they add to your depth and they also give you like legitimate left field value if Jared Kellnick falls flat on his face. But yeah, I think you also should be looking at the trade market. We heard from Ryan Divish that the Mariners have at least checked in on Tyler O'Neill. That would be a really interesting and exciting addition.

We don't know if the Cardinals are even willing to move Tyler O'Neill, but maybe. I think there's also a guy like Randall Gritchick makes some sense out of Colorado. It's making $9, $10 million. He crush his left-handed pitching. Can play the corner outfield spots pretty well. Can fake it in center field still for short period. So, yeah, I think there still are free agents out there that are worth investing in. But you also shouldn't ignore the trade market.

So I think, you know, Jerry's going to be open and Justin are going to be open to pretty much any avenue to get the right guy. But I do think right now that they're kind of, they really seem to think they have a good shot at getting Brian Reynolds. which they know more than we do, so maybe they do. Yeah, and DeVish, who is typically dismissive of any and all rumors with the Mariners, is not being all that dismissive with this one, which is interesting to say the least. And the fact that he also mentioned, you know, them calling about Tyler O'Neill to the Cardinals. So maybe O'Neill's the fallback option there if they just can't get something done with Reynolds. And either way, I mean, like O'Neill is a really, really fun.

upside play. We were talking about him before we started recording that, you know, he hasn't been healthy. He's only played over 100 games once, but that one time that he played over 100 games, he was nearly a six-win player. And he's a really good defender with value on the base pass and he can hit for power. I mean, by the way, I think I should take this time to point this out. If you're going to have a weakness entering, you know, a regular season, having your weakness being the corner outfield is probably the best place. you could possibly have a weakness. Now, ideally, you'd like to not have one, but think of all the guys who, you know,

produce average or above average seasons who play in the corner outfield. And think of how many of those guys are moved in a trade deadline. Like, think of how cheap Dinar's span was, right? Think about, you know, how easy it is to go out and get a bend gamble, right? Like, so waiting on the left field market, hoping that you find the perfect fit, either if it's a platoon or a full-time player, it's not a bad strategy because if Kelnick falls flat on his face or if Trammell can't hack it or they, you know, whatever, whatever it is. Right.

Right. I mean, whoever it is. If they can't get it done, the Mariners, it's not going to be hard for them to go out and acquire a veteran who can at least hold that spot down until they can go get a serviceable upgrade in that corner spot. So it's not the worst thing in the world. If they don't, you know, if it's, if it's Kellnick and Pollock, that's pretty good. like if Kelnick fails and they still want a left-handed hitter who can platoon with

Pollock, they can just go give, you know, a box of gum to whoever, whichever team signs Ben Gamble or, you know, insert random lefty who's going to post a 95 to 100 WRC plus season. So, yeah, there's no reason really to freak out about the corner outfield spot right now. And for no other reason, we're 68 days away from pitchers and catchers. So see how it looks. next question comes from mark Mark wants to know would Brian Anderson Wilmire's maybe a bullpen arm be good enough for you guys

I know not the masses but it does make this team better yeah I mean that's the key at the end of the A plus the sentence there that yeah it's it makes the team better it's not the most exciting thing I don't think it necessarily accomplishes everything that you wanted to get done heading into the soft season but you're you're in a better spot you're a pretty well-rounded team

if those are your additions Now, obviously, it depends on the bullpen arm, right? Because you left that kind of ambiguous there. Like, you know, is that a, is that like a seventh inning guy? Is that like a Paul Seawald like type of arm or is that, you know, another Trevor God, right? Is that another mid leverage guy? I would like to see them add maybe something, you know, closer to the late innings type of, type of leverage arm. That would be my preference.

just depends on if you're able to do that. But yeah, if say they added like another high leverage arm and then Brian Anderson and Will Myers, I feel pretty good about the off season. I don't feel amazing about it. I'm not giving them, you know, an A plus, but I'm giving them a solid like B plus on the whole off season. Definitely an A plus because they got Will Myers.

Of course, of course. And you're on his payroll, as everyone in the YouTube comment says. Still wait for that first check. And by everyone, I mean, like, like two people. Whatever. Well, Will still hasn't paid me. So you better figure that out before I turn on them.

But now I think that does help. Myers fills a couple of roles. And Anderson also fills a couple of roles that the Mariners have said that they're looking for. So I think those two, I think if, you know, Will Myers is your DH most days or Brian Anderson. And, you know, you have the platoon in left field. I think that's a pretty good lineup, one through nine. it's not elite but you know what the the astros lineup last year had holes too and they won the world series the astros 7 through 9 wasn't very good and they still won the world series so

uh and like we said you don't have to have everything fixed by opening day right you can go and you can patch things throughout the season so um we'll see how off on a long tangent you know here but like you're not closing the 16 game gap or whatever you know in and one off season right like it's going to take a while i don't even know if there is a 16 game gap though Yeah, because I yeah, right, because like obviously there's full season. You start fresh. You start fresh. Yeah, we've talked about us a bunch.

There are some key players from the Astros who could regress. There are some key players from the Mariners who could improve like blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Yeah. So it's really like closing the 16 game gap is like easy to say. It's easy for us, right, to kind of phrase things that way. But in reality, you're starting over with a blank piece of paper because nobody's season carries over from the previous. But yeah. Yeah.

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, I think it's really just to kind of demonstrate the talent gap between the two clubs. But like you said, there's so many variables. There's so many things that can happen over the course of the season. It doesn't really like that is at the end of the day kind of just a fruitless conversation. Right.

All right. Let's keep going here with the questions. Max wants to know about another Max. Can you sell me on Max Kepler? I just don't see it, but I'm not a GM. So educate me. has an average of only 250 or had an average of 250 only once. Only twice has he hit 20 plus home runs and not since 2019, not a ton of speed.

I just don't see how he could be that much of an upgrade over Winker, better defense, yes, but lacks offense. Thoughts. All right. So Colby, we have talked a lot about Max Kepler, who I'd be surprised if he's still in a Minnesota twin uniform by spring training, especially now that they've added Joey Gallo to the mix because that's just really redundant those two guys. I think Kepler is a better bet than Gallo personally. Obviously, you know, slightly below average WRC Plus is the last couple of years.

Only hit for seven home runs this year, but was also the highest graded defensive right fielder and all the baseball by outs above average with plus 12. So you're getting a significant defensive upgrade over a Jesse Winker, but you're also losing some offensive prowess as well, potentially. But this is a guy that can walk. He doesn't strike out a ton. And he has shown that he can hit for quite a bit of power.

And that's ultimately why I like him. And I think that there's more here that's untapped. There's more potential here that's untapped. Right. He's 29 years old, so it's not like he's a 34-year-old declining player. And I think you're underselling the value of the defense a little bit because Winker last year, I think, was a one-of- 6WRC plus guy.

So he's 10% better than than Kepler. Kepler Kepler is to winker defensively as like at, you know, it's like the difference between

Byron Buxton and Seth Smith playing center field. Like it is that big of a gap. I'm not even really exaggerating. It is that large of a gap. And again, whether you score runs or you prevent runs, runs are the name of the game.

So whatever you might lose going from Winker to Kepler offensively, you're going to save that many runs and then some with that defensively. So I think at worst, it's a lateral move to what you got last year out of Winker now. Obviously, I think we both think that Winker is going to go out and hit in Milwaukee because, of course he is. But it doesn't matter. He didn't hit for you last year, at least not well enough to justify the defense. So, yeah, Kepler is a huge upgrade defensively. and that does matter, and he is a better base runner.

And there is still upside in the bat. The swing plane can get a little flat. That's why the home runs kind of dip. But I think if the Mariners want to make a small change, I think that they can unlock some more of that power. And if Max Kepler is a guy who's going to hit, you know, 250, 320, 400, even with that defense, he's going to be a two or three-win player,

and that's an upgrade over what you have right now. Agreed. All right, Rob wants to know. Will Kelnick produce next season? Question from my 12-year-old son, Everett. What's up, Everett? Thank you for the question. So there were a lot of Kelnick questions this week.

There were a lot of questions. He is by far the most talked about player on the marriage roster right now. Yeah, it's a good question because, I mean, it's one of the biggest questions surrounding this team right now. Because, I mean, as of today, and again, six. eight days left until pitchers and catchers report but as of today he is the starting left fielder for the mariners and so he hasn't really earned that so you know that that's really a big question here because he's still 23 years old and you know we got a lot of questions about not just him in particular but just shift bands in general and a lot of people have pointed to

the shift ban as as something that could help kelnik as well uh so let's Let's take Everett's question here a little, you know, just a step further and kind of talk about all of this. All of the things that potentially help Kelnick. What's being overblown. What's not? Let's start with the shift ban because like the shift ban is probably the biggest topic just in baseball right now talking about hitters and talking about guys like Joey Gallo who could get back on the horse. But the thing is like 95% of the hitters that I see as like being the as like people mentioning as being the biggest benefactors of the shift ban or like. power hitters, guys that the majority, if not all of their value, comes from hitting for

doubles and hitting for home runs. Well, the shift band doesn't help with that at all. This is, what we're talking about is more singles. And the other thing that's getting misconstrued here is that with the shift band, I mean, like shifts aren't actually being banned. You can, all that's being banned is having more than two guys on each side of second base. That's it. And your feet have to start, your feet have to start on the dirt when the pitch is

Yeah, and you can't have a guy in like shallow right field. But yeah, other than that, you can move those pieces wherever you want. Yeah. So, and you got, you know, you'll be damn sure that some, you know, that the shortstop's going to be playing right next to second base and that the second baseman is going to be playing right next to second base depending on, you know, who's up to bat and all that. And they're still going to be able to cover a ton of ground because of that. So there's still going to be shifts.

They're just not going to look the way that they have in the past. And therefore, like, like, like, they're still going to be. going to be more singles. There is going to be an uptick in singles, but it's not going to be the significant thing that some people make it out to be. A few guys are going to add a few points to their batting average, but it's not going to be a

30, 40, 50 point jump like I'm seeing, you know, some people talk about. It's more so going to be like maybe a 10 to 15 point jump and batting average at most. Maybe. I don't think any for Gallo because the strikeouts are the issue there, but. Well, and that's

the thing too, right? Like, on base percentages are going to go up a little bit, but slugging percentages are more or less going to stay the same. And the shift band isn't going to fix anyone's 30 to 35% strikeout rate, especially Kellnick, right? Kellnick's big thing is the swing and miss. Kellnick still has to, just to tie this all back to Kellnick, Kellnick has to make more contact. That's really what it comes down to. Yes, has he been impacted greatly by the shift in the past? Yes, there is data that points to that.

And some of those balls that he's hit hard that have ended up going to the second baseman, who's posted basically in right field, like that's going to go for singles, but that's only going to add so much value here. Right. So it just real fast on Kellnick specifically in the shift. Kellnick's not a deadpole hitter either. That's true, too.

I think there's this idea that Kellnick is just like constantly just hitting the ball to the right side. Kelnick's opposite field percentage is right in line with Major League average. Like he will use the opposite field. He prefers to pull the ball. Every hitter in baseball does. because that's where most of the people's power comes from, his pole side. But he will go to the opposite field.

So it's not even like, you know, 80% of his balls are going, you know, between first and second base. No, it's about 35% are going to left field. The difference is that Kellnick has to hit the ball hard to left field. Kelnick has to make more contact, like he said, he has to make better quality contact. He has to cover more of the plate. And all those things are going to help him so much more than just the shift ban. He has to find a swing that allows him to cover the entire side of the plate, because you watch Kellnick for three days,

and you'll know how Major League Baseball is going to pitch to him for the next two weeks, whether it's velocity up or it's changeups away, like you know, because he doesn't make that adjustment quick enough because he's constantly cycling through new swings to fix the old adjustment. Kellink's got to find a swing that works. I think he's got to slim down.

I mean, he still be fit, but like he's got to be less muscle bound. We've talked about this. Yeah, he's just too stiff. right it's you have there's fluidity in baseball you have to be fluid and it doesn't really matter what your body looks like as long as you have fluid fluidity you have to have a whippiness in your swing and maybe most you know maybe some of you remember the conversation that we had on a mailback monday a few weeks ago about bat speed right kelnik needs to improve his bat speed he needs to become a more fluid hitter and he needs to be able to like colby said to cover more of the plate because look you you look at last year I mean, and again, you know, to talk about what Colby was talking about here is like, pitchers just go, they'll spam the outside part of the zone

and he can't do anything about it. Right. And I mean, then when you see him start to maybe make an adjustment here or there that might lead to that success, what happens? He can't touch fast, you can't touch fastball velo up in the zone. And even think about 96. Right.

Right. It's a timing issue because here's like, Kelnik is as strong, like, Kelnik is as fit as any major. Major League Baseball player in the league. Like it's not a strength issue. It's not a conditioning. He's stiff.

He's a stiff guy. He's a burly guy. So he has to get more fluidity in the swing. So is Kellnick going to produce this year to get back to the question? I don't know, but I'll say this. Jared Kellnick reaching his ceiling would do more to close the gap between Houston and Seattle than any move the Mariners could have possibly made this one. That's a fact.

Signed, Trey Turner, fine, whatever. Jared Kelnick reaching his ceiling would be more impactful than that. Why? Because Jared Kelnick's going to make 700 grand next year. And Jared Kelnick's ceiling is still an All-Star. So, yeah, guess what Trey Turner's ceiling is? All-Star.

So it's easy, it's the easiest thing in the world to sit here and say that Jared Kelnick can't hit. Well, we don't know that. He's 23. He hasn't hit so far. That's totally fair. Nobody's arguing with you. and saying, well, trusting him to be the guy when you're trying to win a World Series,

that's really risky. Again, nobody's arguing with you. Yeah. But just the idea that Jared Kellick can't be an impactful major leagher because he hasn't been through his first 500 played appearances or whatever. No, he's 23 years old. So let's see.

I think it's important that the Mariners find a way to give him at bats, but it is just as important that the Mariners find a way to protect themselves so that if Kellnick doesn't hit, they have an answer. So will he produce? I don't know. I feel strangely confident that Kelman can hit like even with his current skill set 210 like 300 maybe 400 something like that yeah which is with his defense and power the home run power is probably a two-win player yeah and if they platoon with him and he's not

exactly kind of lefties like I think I think he can produce I think we'll see like better overall numbers because he's just not being exposed to lefties as much right take away take something off of his plate right don't worry about hitting lefties. We're going to cover that for you. You worry about getting right against one side of the plate and we'll cover the other thing for you. Take a little bit off his plate. Give him a little bit of breathing room. And speaking of, you know, the mental side of things is such a huge thing for Jared. It's it has been, right? He's pressed so hard at times. And it's like, it's very evident too, right? He's, he wears his emotions. He wants to be great. Yeah. And so,

but now, I mean, like, like, you're almost basically too full see. into his major league career, well, parts of two seasons into his major league career. About one full season. Yeah, it's probably about one full season at this point. But yeah, parts of two seasons at this point. And now, you know, he's been a part of a postseason team. He's been a starter on a postseason team. He's checked a lot of boxes here, especially over the last, you know, few weeks of this past season.

Now it's just, you just got a ball, man. You know, that's really, that's all that's left is just, you know, like you've been to the biggest, you know, you've been to some of the biggest stages that the game has to offer. You've been there. You've done that. Now you just got a ball. You've been able to help a postseason team out because he was a big help defensively, at least, you know, there towards the end of the season.

That was a big upgrade for them defensively, not offensively, but defensively. And so you were able to provide value to a postseason team. That should make you feel pretty good about yourself. Now, it's about getting back on track offensively, getting back on track at the plate because, look, he's done everything than you can at every minor league level. even AAA. There's nothing that he can accomplish that AAA now, that he hasn't already.

He's done everything. So this year, really, to me, is going to determine whether Jerry Kalnick is actually a major leagueer or a 4A guy. Okay. You're not ready on that, huh? I think this year determines whether or not he has a future with the Mariners. I just, I don't know, man.

Like, he's had a lot of plate appearances. Like, it's been a... 500 and 600. He's still, like he's still, like he's still really young, but he's had quite a few played appearances. And like, he's literally like off to one of the, historically one of the worst starts ever for someone with as many played appearances. Sure. How long did it take Tyler O'Neill to become an all-star? Thousand played appearances.

That's true. But he was also like the thing with him too is he wasn't able to stay healthy. So at least Kellmanke's that going for him. All right. Let's, uh, let's move on here. Last question of the. day comes from Maiden. For all your player analysis, what sources do you use?

Two sources. This eye and this eye. No, I'm just kidding. Fan graphs, baseball savant, all that stuff. You know, baseball reference, all the, all the usuals, all the hits. And then, yeah, there's a bit of eye test. There's talking to people if you, you know, for us, like, we know a couple people that, like, would know things better than we do.

And so we'll ask questions. We're not afraid of asking questions on in getting, you know. you know context for certain things that's really it um if you're able to you know reach out to someone that that that knows ball like don't be afraid to ask questions about that and then there's plenty of great resources i i think baseball honestly has the best collection of resources free resources out there for stats and data and all that because there's so many different sites out there i mean like shoot you know i just mentioned fan graphs and baseball reference which is really all you need but there's also pitcher list there's you know again baseball savant there's a bunch of different outlets

that have a ton of data, a ton of really good data and stats help you grow your knowledge of the game. Right. My favorite is probably baseball savant, Stackcast essentially. It puts everything into a very quantitative perspective.

Like it's very easy to go through. And I'm a big fan of the rate stat, hard hit rate, you know, walk percentage. I like those stats. So that's what I use. They tend to tell you a lot.

I know some people are like, well, yeah, but if you look at the swing and it's like, well, okay, swing or not like 3,000 plate appearances in and he's got a 28% strikeout rate. I feel like that's probably who he is. So I really like savant is probably my favorite.

There's a lot of fun things in there too, like Max X at VLO and things like that. You can get those on fan graphs too, which is probably my second favorite spot. Baseball reference is great for quick, you know, just streamlined data. And then like in terms of like prospects and stuff like that, like draft stuff, I lean pretty heavily on prospects live. They do really good work. Their guys keep getting snatched up by front offices. So that should tell you something.

And obviously, MLB pipeline is kind of just a quick go-to. If you just want some quick information, and both of those sources, like Ty said, they're also free. So there are ways you can support them. I would encourage you to do that. But yeah, it's mostly, I just, everything that Ty and I use, you have access to as well, except for maybe there's a couple of people we can talk to about smaller things.

And typically we use them for things like, like, hey, what does the swing look like? Because Ty and I aren't scouts, right? We're not, we're not hitting coaches. We can tell. What's some information that you're getting on like this guy of Dominican, right? Like someone that we literally cannot watch, you know? Right. And that's why like when Ty and I in a couple weeks talk about Felman Celestine, like,

that's not because Ty and I have watched the kid play. We have no idea. Like, there's just no video of them. like we can't go down there and watch them either. So we rely a lot on, you know, smart people who have other connections in the game beyond what we do to tell us things.

And, you know, you just kind of got to find guys you trust and just roll what they're telling you is part of it too. So, yeah, I think, you know, it's like I said, baseball, the one thing that Major League Baseball does really well is that it's very easy to get information about the game. usually for free. So take advantage of them.

The one free resource to not take advantage of, though, baseball trade values. Burn it. Kill it with fire. Don't use that resource. Do not use that resource. Boy, Ty, I can't wait for fan fiction Friday. Everybody has to include a screenshot of their trade. Tye's favorite website in the world is baseball trade values.

You can just get, tell them our time. for Brendan Bernardino. Sure, yeah, yeah, absolutely. Yeah, why not? Why not? Why the hell not? Okay. Totally realistic.

Yeah, yeah, that's all the questions for today. Sorry if we didn't get to yours. I think Colby's going to be answering some on the Lockdown Mariners' Twitter page because that's where all your questions came from. So if you didn't get your question answered, Colby will probably take care of you over there. So head on over there probably, I don't know, tonight, right? You're probably going to do it later today or something.

Maybe this afternoon. Yeah. Sometime after the show's posted. Yeah. So head on over there. And thank you to all of you that did submit questions. And thank you to all of those that asked the questions that got answered on today's show. But that's going to do it for our show today.

Thank you so much for joining us here on the Lockdown Mariners podcast for Colby Patnode. I'm Tadang Gonzalez. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L0 underscore Mariners. You can follow me at Dane Gonzalez. It's D-A-N-Z-L-Z and Colby at C-P-E-E-E-Pat-E. 1-1. You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode. Thank you again for making us your first listen for your next listen. Check out the locked on sports today podcast featuring the biggest stories of the day plus instant reactions, big game recaps and the take of the day. It's

available on the Odyssey app, YouTube and wherever you get your podcast just like us. And with that, have yourself a beautiful baseball day. And we'll see you on Wednesday. Peace.