Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Mailbag: Will Mariners Fans Boo Jarred Kelenic in Return to Seattle?

Starting point is 00:00:00 Which slow start is more concerning? Jorge Polanco's or Mitch Garvers. We'll answer that and more coming up here on Mailbag Monday. Colby, hit it. You are Locked on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Ahoy, sailors.

Starting point is 00:00:24 It is Monday, April 29, 2024. This is signing as awesome. Colby Petnode for the Lockdown Merrers podcast, brought to you by Fanduel. Make every moment more. And right now, new customers get $150 in bonus bets. guaranteed. That's 150 bucks win or lose. Visit fanduil.com slash locked on. That's L-C-K-D-O-N to get yourself started. Thank you so much for making us your first. Listen, subscribe, like, and turn on alerts.

Starting point is 00:00:48 If you're watching on YouTube or subscribe and leave a five-star review on your preferred podcast platform, if you like what you hear. And if you're part of the crew and rock with us every single day, let us know in the comments below. We'd love to hear from you. And if you want to hear from us even more, please consider signing up for our Patreon. You can now get a free seven-day trial to check out the show. The link as well as our social accounts is in the description of this episode. And this is Mailbag Monday. The show will answer your Mariners questions. And we're going to start here with Adam, who wants to know, I think I know what Colby will say, but if Brian Wu's next rehab start goes well, and

Starting point is 00:01:19 Emerson Hancock's next outing goes well as well, what do you think happens with this rotation? You send Hancock down, you call up Wu, that's the end of the, that's the end of the answer. It's really, that's all it needs to be said. We've been asked this. so many times over the last three weeks. And I don't know if Mariners fans have just forgotten how good Brian Wu is, or if too much is being made of the whole he can't get lefties out thing. Brian Wu is really freaking good. The upside is significantly higher than Emerson Hancock.

Starting point is 00:01:57 And that's not even to discredit Emerson Hancock and what he's done over his last couple starts. What he's done over his last couple starts has been great. It's been great news for the Mariners, right? The significant uptick and the command and the control, the fact that he's giving you a chance to win and all but one of his starts so far is amazing. Because heading into the season, it really looked like this rotation was devoid of depth behind their top five. And now you actually have a number six that I think you can rely on at least a little bit. So Hancock gets sent down. He is that number six.

Starting point is 00:02:37 He's going to get called upon at some point again this year. And when we do, I feel a lot better about the Mariners' chances going into that start than I did three weeks ago. Right. And I know that's a pretty significant change in tune from where we were with Hancock, you know, just a few weeks ago. But it's early. Things change.

Starting point is 00:02:57 Hancock has made some really nice strides over the last couple of weeks. You got to give him credit. He has been significantly better than I think even like the wildest, you know, craziest Mariner optimist would have predicted. He's been really solid. And I think, you know, going in, my thought was, well, if he starts five or six games and he gives you a chance to win three of them, you have to be really happy with that because the stuff is not good. And it's still not good. This is extremely fringe stuff. But the last couple times out, he's just had like 55, 60 command.

Starting point is 00:03:29 but the simple fact is he's going to get six starts and so far through five starts he's given you a really good chance to win four of them and he gave you no chance in the other one. So we'll see what he does here against Atlanta, which, no, not Atlanta. Who's Hancock? Is Hancock pitching in the series? I think right now, I think right now he is scheduled to start the last game. I thought so, but then I have to look at the pitching problems again. He should be.

Starting point is 00:03:59 He's lined up to pitch that last game. We'll see. Anyways. But yeah, I mean, Hancock has been very good. He's given the Mariners, I think more than even the Mariners themselves could have hoped for. But at the end of the day, Brian Wu is just better. He is a better pitcher right now than Emerson Hancock. You know, the league is going to make their adjustments to Emerson.

Starting point is 00:04:21 The league has already made their adjustments to Wu. And Wu gets to counterpunch back now for the first time. I just, you know, I think people, I think honestly, I think people forget how good Brian Wu was last year. And he, he was really that good with just fastballs. Like, he was a legitimate, you know, number four, number five starter last year, basically only ever consistently having, you know, the fastball. And if he had the cut or he had the cutter or if he had the slider on any particular day, he was a number two, number three on that day. So Wu might have the second best fastball in all. of baseball.

Starting point is 00:04:56 Like I think you could argue it's Spencer Strider at one and it's Brian Wu at two. Like there's just so much ride. There's so much deception. There's so much command on that pitch that Woo can really get through a lineup a couple times with just a fastball. That's what we're talking about here. And we don't even know what he did this offseason to really, you know, improve his other stuff because we didn't get to see him pitch, you know.

Starting point is 00:05:24 And so, you know, it's going to be fun to watch Woo. I'm interested to see him. But like you said, we're going to see Hancock again at some point this year. Absolutely. You know, hopefully it's not injury related. Hopefully it's, hey, you know what, Wu is pitched for the last, you know, 12 weeks. He's taking the ball every turn. You know, he's getting up there innings.

Starting point is 00:05:46 And we have to protect the arm a little bit. So let's send him down for a couple weeks. So we'll call up Hancock and he'll cover those innings. And it's also worth noting that, you know, Emerson, Hancock has. his own injury history that he's kind of having to deal with. So the Mariners really have two arms that they're trying to kind of manage their workload with this year. Yeah. And it's not a bad thing to have, you know, a good number six pitching in Tacoma and keeping him stretched out. So I feel like I think most of this is just that people don't quite remember how impressive Brian Wu was

Starting point is 00:06:18 last year. Because I, when I think of Wu, and I'd look at what Hancock's done over the last what is he's made five starts right i still look at this and i say emerson hancock's ceiling is brian woo's floor and that's assuming that brian woo doesn't get any better than he already is which i think we know is a ridiculous notion so we'll see how woo looks but you're not you're not keeping brian woo in tacoma for emerson hancock no way no and like you were alluding to we we don't know what kind of strides he's taken to address the issues that he had against lefties this past year. And that doesn't even mean that he needed to develop a new pitch.

Starting point is 00:07:04 It might be maybe he develops more of a reliable backfoot slider, right? Maybe he's able to get that fastball in on the hands of lefties a little bit more. We don't know. And we're not going to find that out until we actually see him pitch against major league hitters. But I don't think we should just assume that this is the same. guy that we saw last year that really struggled against lefties either and focus on that so much so that we're legitimately considering keeping Emerson Hancock on the roster over him. The ceiling is so much higher than Hancock's.

Starting point is 00:07:40 Again, that's not to discredit Hancock. It's just Brian Wu is that freaking good. Colin wants to know which player between Jorge Polanco and Mitch Garver are you more concerned about offensively. I just, I think you look at, you know, Palanco is at least right now getting on base quite a bit. That's due to an insane walk rate that's not, it's not sustainable, but it is a good sign that, you know, Polanco is at least finding a way to help out. Mitch Garber on the other hand, you know, he's kind of in this mode right now where he's kind of one step forward, two steps back, and he's kind of in the cycle that he's trying to break. You get the home run on this home stand.

Starting point is 00:08:20 He hit a double the other night, but then yesterday he was missing breaking balls by like a foot. So it's one of those things where Garber's working through some stuff right now, whereas Palanco has kind of found a way to contribute even when he's been, you know, objectively not very good this year. So, you know, Polanco at least since April, is running a 101 WRC plus, which isn't great. But, you know, it's really pumped up by his walks. he's walking a ton he's not chasing uh so he's having decent at bats uh garber you know right now even when he has a good at bat it it's finding a way to be an out more more often than not right he's sitting a lot of really hard hit ground balls but they're going right to people so even when he does a lot of things well he's not being rewarded for it consistently so i'm not really concerned about

Starting point is 00:09:10 either but right now at least polonko is kind of finding a way to to manage and to add to this ball club and Garber, every time you think he's close. He just takes a step back and you kind of feel like you're starting from square one again. So I guess more concerned with Garber, but I'm really not concerned about either one yet. Just in terms of like who's in a worse spot than the other, yeah, it's Garber. Because Garber right now, it's pretty obvious that he's struggling to pick up spin like we saw yesterday against Fott. And it's a little bit of the same issue that Thai France is going through right now where it's a launch angle issue. He's hitting the ball hard.

Starting point is 00:09:47 He's just hitting his straight into the ground. Now, maybe there is a little bit of a bat speed issue here as well because he has swung through quite a few fastballs. But again, he's still hitting the ball really hard. Polanco, on the other hand, like you said, at least he's walking. At least he has three bombs this year. And historically speaking, he's been a slow starter.

Starting point is 00:10:08 It's a career 97 WRC plus in the months of March and April combined. All right, we're going to answer more of your questions here in just a moment. but first a reminder of this episode of the Lockdown Airs podcast is brought to you by DoorDash and Monopoly Go. Want to make Mom smile? Start Mother's Day with flowers. Her surprise her with gifts from the brand she loves delivered the very same day with DoorDash. Does mom have a sweet tooth? Is she a tech enthusiast, a beauty connoisseur?

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Starting point is 00:12:15 reminder that the Mariners kick off their toughest series of the season thus far tonight. Hosting Ronald Acuna Jr. and the Atlanta Braves, you can catch all the action on the Mariners hometown broadcast with Sirius XM on the SXM app. All you have to do is search Mariners. Now, Colby, before we get back into our listener questions, I have a question for you. Is Jared Kellner getting booed tonight? I don't know, probably, but I think the proper, like, why? I don't know, but I think honestly the proper reaction is just to not have one. Like, even if you really disliked your, like, I don't think Kellnick deserves like a standing ovation or anything like that.

Starting point is 00:12:56 Like he didn't do anything here. Like, who cares? But, you know, I think booing him is kind of lame, but also I think it kind of gives him what he wants. It's just more like, you know, like, oh, more motivation. I'm going to show you guys. And it's just to ignore him. Show Jared Kellnick as much relevance as his statistics. gave the Mariners, which is none at all.

Starting point is 00:13:20 Like, Jared Kellink is not a relevant part of the Mariners story. Sadly, he should have been, but he's not. He's really not. You know, he's kind of a supporting character in this, this, you know, re, whatever you want to call, reimagining of the franchise. He was supposed to be a main character, but he wasn't. And, you know, he kind of left a villain a little bit. He didn't leave a villain.

Starting point is 00:13:40 He kind of became a little bit annoying after he left. But yeah, you should just treat him like, like he was never here. basically he wasn't. I hope he does well. I don't, I don't dislike him. I just don't care one way or the other. So I think if you're a person who does care and you think that he's like stepped over

Starting point is 00:13:59 the line like, okay, fine. I don't really agree, but like fine, whatever. If that's how you want a fan, go for it.

Starting point is 00:14:06 But then my suggestion to you would be literally don't do anything. Don't cheer. Don't, don't boo. Don't clap. Just sit there. Because I think the irrelevance that Jared Kellnick feels, when he fails is what's actually going to drive him nuts.

Starting point is 00:14:21 Like your hatred of him will only fuel him and make him double down on that. Just ignore him. Next question here from Glenn. Glenn wants to know how long do you expect it will take Ben Williamson to get promoted to Arkansas if he keeps up close to this level of production. Ben Williamson's off to a really nice start, especially if you compound that with his spring numbers as well. So when do you think

Starting point is 00:14:46 when do you think he's getting the call up to double a? Oh, probably not for another month or so. You know, it's been a really nice start, but you also have to remember Williamson is a college. He was a college senior when he was drafted. So he's a little bit old for the Northwest League, not like ridiculously old, but he's older than the competition he's facing

Starting point is 00:15:07 and, you know, he's doing what he should. So it's certainly not a negative that he's, you know, being productive. But it does, you know, you do have to kind of, keep an eye on stuff like that. Like how is he faring against the competitive relative to the competition? And Williamson is a guy who probably should be putting up pretty good numbers in Everett right now.

Starting point is 00:15:26 So the fact that he is is good. But I still think it's going to be another month or so because you kind of got to see it, right? You got to keep seeing that you got to have some consistency here. So I think it'll be a month. I don't think this is going to be a situation where, you know, they're going to wait until the draft and then they're going to bump guys up to make room for the new signies and then blah blah blah and then there's a trickle down effect so uh i think they'll probably see them in uh i think you'll probably see them in in arkansas

Starting point is 00:15:54 by june first would be my guess yeah williamsim right now slashing 326 385 488 that's 159 wrc plus down in uh in everett 17 ribs just one home run striking out 14.6% of the time walking 8.3% of the time playing pretty good defense as well as well as well as well. well. But like you said, doing pretty much what he should be doing against that level of competition at his age, which is not to discredit him or anything like that. It's just, it's important context, right? We don't know if this level of success is going to translate to the effort levels just because he's doing this against younger players. But obviously, you know, you want him doing this rather than the opposite, of course. Next question from Aaron. Will

Starting point is 00:16:42 Luke Rayleigh draw a walk this year? Really. though, how would you assess his first roughly 50 plate appearances as a mariner? And what do you do? What do you see happening playing time or roster wise when Dominic Canzone comes back? Well, he's still missing pitches that he should hit. You know, there, there are, you know, he's chasing, he's getting some like pitches in that lefty loop zone and he's popping them up. And, and that's not a good sign. But what we are seeing is we're seeing him find a way to collect hits, you know, a little bit more. And yes, he's got a couple. on singles, which I know people like, oh, those don't count.

Starting point is 00:17:18 Yes, they do. Like, of course they do. Those count. And, you know, the, the RBI on Saturday night, that counts and the hits against the lefties, that counts. Like, they all count. And so what we're seeing now is we're seeing Rayleigh start to play pretty much every day. Like the Mariners seem pretty intent on having a pure platoon, uh, with Rayleigh.

Starting point is 00:17:40 And now it looks like Hagridy is going to be that partner, um, which I don't love, because I actually think Rayleigh's looked better against lefties at times this year than he has righties. But yeah, Rayleigh, obviously he has to get better. But I do think the played appearances overall are getting better as he's seen a little bit more playtime. But there's no question about it. He has to get better. He can't miss the number of pitches he's missing.

Starting point is 00:18:02 And he's never going to be a high batting average guy. Like it's not like we're asking him to go hit 270, right? We're asking, can you hit like 220 to 240? Can you draw a couple walks, which is what he does? like this is out of character for him to not have a walk through 50 plate appearances or whatever. And we know the strikeouts are going to be a little bit high, but can you, can you put up a eight, like a seven to 10% walk rate and a 30-ish percent strikeout rate hit 240 or sorry, 230 and, you know, run into a home run once a week. You know, and we know he can steal some bags. He had a stolen base this weekend.

Starting point is 00:18:35 Like, there are a lot of things Luke Rayleigh can do to help you, but he's got to be better than what he is right now. There's nobody denying that. But I think the only way that you can get there is to continue to give him these consistent at-bats to let him find something. And there's two lefties going in the series. So my guess is that we're not going to see Rayleigh tonight or on Wednesday against Freed or Sale, which I don't have a huge problem with. Those are two really tough lefties, particularly Sail. Left-on-left is a very difficult at-bat.

Starting point is 00:19:06 But again, it's kind of difficult to maintain, you know, this thing. And right now, Rayleigh is, you know, he'll have two hits in the game. And then he'll go, oh, for his next eight with three strikeouts. And then, oh, it's over. And then the next day, and then his fourth game, he'll have two hits again. And so he's going like four for 16, which is totally fine. They're just all singles. And it's a very inconsistent four for 16.

Starting point is 00:19:29 It's multi-hit game, O for four, O for four, multi-hate game. And the O for four is there's usually like six strikeouts mixed in there. So it's a very inconsistent game for Rayleigh right now. but I do think that he's getting better. I think when we start seeing him turn on pitches on the inside corner, particularly the breaking balls on the inside corner, I think that's a good sign that he's finally starting to lock in. But right now he's missing some cookies,

Starting point is 00:19:52 certainly in his swing zone that he should be hitting very hard. And he's just not. So he's not there yet. But I do think we're seeing some better at bats from him. It's just they have to be a little bit more consistent now. We're still so far away for a decision to be made. So it's impossible to give you a proper answer on what they're going to do roster-wise with Rayleigh and

Starting point is 00:20:10 Canzone, etc. All right, we're going to answer a few more questions here in just a moment, but first a reminder of this episode of the Lockdowneer's podcast is brought to you by Fanduel. It's playoff time in the NBA and NHL baseball's in full swing and Fandul is your place to bet on every game.

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Starting point is 00:21:01 Thank you again for making us your first listen here on Mailbag Monday. Once again, the Marrists kick off their toughest series of the season thus far tonight. Hosting Matt Olson and the Atlanta of Braves, you can catch all the action on the Marry's hometown broadcast with SiriusXM on the XXM app. All you have to do is search Mariners. Next question here from the Darren McCacken enjoyer. Josh Rojas, though in a small sample size,

Starting point is 00:21:30 has been killing it. Do you just let him stay lead off when JP comes back? I know it's early and JP won't be back for a bit. And do you let Josh play against lefties with how well he's and see what happens. We love locked on Mariners. I don't think he's a lead off hitter type long term in the short term. Yeah, he's probably your best bet.

Starting point is 00:21:53 Either him or Julio should probably be hitting lead off. Do I play more against lefties? I mean, I think what's going on now works pretty well. Is it at the expense of Luis Arias? Because you do want to make sure that he's not going several days without playing. Right.

Starting point is 00:22:11 I mean, he already went the entire Arizona series without playing. And now thankfully for him, he's going to play two of the next three days, assuming he's healthy because there's going to be lefties on the mound. So, and you could say, well, we just play Eureas at,

Starting point is 00:22:23 you know, shortstop and give Rojas at bats against lefties. You could, but now Dillmore's on the bench against left-handed pitching. And you don't want Dillmore on the bench against left-hand of pitching. Just like you really don't want Sam Haggerty on the bench against left-handed pitching. You could start D.M. On the outfield over Haggerty.

Starting point is 00:22:41 you could, but what's the point of having Haggarty crushes left-handed pitching too? So, like, you know, eventually you run out a guy. And at some point, you're taking somebody out of the lineup who should be in it against the left-handed pitcher. So to me, no, like, I don't see any way that you're using it. Plus, I mean, can you race even make the throw from shortstop deep in the hole? I mean, like, if he's healthy, he can. And we don't know that the shoulder's still bothering him or whatever because the throws have been fine, right? I mean, so I'm not saying he can.

Starting point is 00:23:12 He had one in Texas that the tie had to scoop, but other than that, it's been fine. So it's like, do you, do you want to risk that? Like, no, not really. So to me, no, I think you just kind of keep operating the third base platoon as you have been because it's working. Like, it's working very well for you right now. So there's no reason to kind of buck that trend. You could maybe give Rojas some left-handed at bats against or some expensive like garb or, not Garber.

Starting point is 00:23:41 Polanco at second because we know Ross can play second, but Polanco hits better against left-handed pitching than right-hand pitching also. So no, I think you just leave the platoon as is. And until JP gets back, then, yeah, I think he is the right choice to be the lead-off hitter. Again, either him or Julio. That doesn't mean it's going to stay that way. But I, and then, you know, once JP gets back, to me, like, JP has to be really bad for an extended period of time because he's so important to the team.

Starting point is 00:24:10 that like it has to be undeniable that you just can't put him back at shortstop and back in the lead off spot because of what he means to the clubhouse. So, uh, you know, when JPM comes back, I think he probably slides back into the lead off spot. But we'll see what we're, I mean, Rojas is hitting 300 in June, you know, and then he's got 20 home run power and put up above league average on base and slugging. You might not have a choice. Like, so. has a pretty similar heading profile to JP. Like JP is probably going to walk more than Rojas at the end of the day. But like overall, it's a pretty similar profile. I would bet on Rojas with a higher slug and higher batting average.

Starting point is 00:24:48 But I think JP's probably more of an on base guy. I'd also rather have Rojas trying to steal a bag, but that's not a lead off exclusive type of skill. So. Right. Yeah. Yeah. But I do think, yeah. I mean, you know, I think maybe maybe what happens is that Rojas, you know, when

Starting point is 00:25:03 JP comes back, it goes JP and Rojas won two and Julio hits three against right-hand pitching. Maybe it's something like that. But yeah, Nick Ross is the right choice right now. I'm not opposed to giving him some at-bats against lefties because traditionally he's hit them fine.

Starting point is 00:25:19 But I think right now the third base platoon is working so well that it's one of those if it ain't broke, don't try to fix it. So I think I'm just leaving that as is. Next question here from Jay Sierra. If we keep this pace up were buyers at the deadline.

Starting point is 00:25:35 Given Brash's unlikely return, at least any time soon, who would you guys like to see the M's ad and why? Paul Seawald. First name, Paul. You're rooting for the Diamondbacks to lose pretty significantly between now and July, which is going to be tough because I like the Diamondbacks. They're a fun club. I don't even know if it needs to be significant.

Starting point is 00:25:58 Like they just need to be hovering like around 500. Like a fringe. They could be in. They could be. Because Paul's a free agent after this year, and it would make sense if they're like not, like, they're just kind of straddling the fence to trade a reliever. So what the Mariners did last year. Exactly. So yeah, they could absolutely do that.

Starting point is 00:26:17 Arizona's a little bit weird with how they manage. We've never seen them act as aggressively as a buyer as they did this winter before, though. So, you know, we'll kind of have to see how they, they work. But there are certainly some relievers on bad teams that are going to make a lot of sense. you look at Oakland that that trio of Erseg, Mason Miller and Austin Adams, former Mariner.

Starting point is 00:26:38 They've all been electric out of the bullpen and they're certainly going to be available. Miller's probably going to cost a little too much and I think Adams out of that trio is the one that's most likely to be. Like I'm not trading Harry Ford for Mason Miller. Miller's probably costing you, Cole Emerson.

Starting point is 00:26:52 Yeah. And obviously that's a no. Like screw you, Oakland. But yeah, like Austin, can I get Austin Adams for pretty cheap? Yes. I mean, Tampa Bay just got swept by the white socks. They're kind of a, you know, they're a team that people were already concerned about the pitching.

Starting point is 00:27:06 They have a pretty, you know, so they have some pretty good bullpen arms in the back in there. Could you get like Fairbanks? You know, and maybe it's a packet. Maybe you get Fairbanks and Andy Diaz if they continue to lose or whatever. You get, you know, and that same goes for Arizona. What did you get Seawald and Christian Walker, you know? Like, there are certainly going to be relievers. But yeah, you look at, I look at Oakland as a really good one because they know they're not going to be very good.

Starting point is 00:27:37 But they do have some arms in the bullpen that are performing. And maybe that's where you go get, you know, like Paul Blackburn attached to that deal. And then there's your number five. And now Brian Wu goes into the bullpen too. And now there's your other high leverage guy, you know. So there are a lot of ways they can attack this. But yeah, Seawald was the first name that came to mind. But obviously, Arizona has to be like very.

Starting point is 00:27:58 at worst for them to consider shopping Seawald, assuming he's healthy again, by the way. I think they would have to be, like best case would be that they're out of it. But if they're like solidly in the playoff race, I don't see it happening. So you really want them to be fringe contenders to trade someone like Seawald. But yeah, Seawald, Austin Adams.

Starting point is 00:28:21 We'll see if anybody emerges out of like the, the White Sox bullpen. Justin Lawrence is kind of interesting. Jake Bird. Jake Bird, yep, from Colorado is kind of interesting. There are some guys in that, San Francisco Bullpen, the Rogers Brothers, one of them, might be pretty interesting too. So you just kind of have to watch to see what contenders kind of are who we think might be contenders,

Starting point is 00:28:45 start to slide because there's going to be disappointments in this thing. That's going to do it for our show. Before we get out of here, a reminder that Lockdown has launched the first ever national sports 24, streaming channel on YouTube. And now it's also available on Amazon Fire TV and the free Fire TV channels app. Locked On Sports Today is here for you 24-7 covering the top sports stories of the day

Starting point is 00:29:07 with the local experts of Locked-on. Plus our national shows covering every league. Find Locked-on Sports Today now available on the Free Fire TV channels app. Thank you so much for joining us here on the Lockdown Merrers podcast. For Colby Patnaud, I'm Taday Gonzalez. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter

Starting point is 00:29:21 at L-O-U-U-U-U-Nor-Gazores. You can follow me at T-D-N-Gazolice and Colby at CPAT-11. You can also find all that. that stuff in the description of this episode. Thank you again for making us your first listen to have yourself a beautiful baseball day and we'll see you next time. Peace.

Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Mailbag: Will Mariners Fans Boo Jarred Kelenic in Return to Seattle?

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