Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Mariners Extension Proposals For Cal Raleigh, Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo, and Matt Brash

Episode Date: January 25, 2024

Ty and Colby propose four extensions for four different Mariners: Cal Raleigh, Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo, and Matt Brash.Follow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @TyDaneGonzalez | @CPat11Support Us By... Supporting Our Sponsors!eBay MotorsWith all the parts you need at the prices you want, it’s easy to turn your car into the MVP and bring home that win. Keep your ride-or-die alive at EbayMotors.com. Eligible items only. Exclusions apply. eBay Guaranteed Fit only available to US customers.Jase MedicalEmpower yourself when you purchase a Jase Case, providing you with a personal supply of 5 antibiotics that treat 50+ infections. Get yours today at jasemedical.com and use code LOCKEDON to get $20 off your order. GametimeDownload the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDON for $20 off your first purchase.FanDuelScore early this NFL season with FanDuel, America’s Number One Sportsbook! Right now, NEW customers get ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY DOLLARS in BONUS BETS with any winning FIVE DOLLAR MONEYLINE BET! That’s A HUNDRED AND FIFTY BUCKS – if your team wins! Visit FanDuel.com/LOCKEDON to get started.FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Colby has put together some extension proposals for a few Mariners. We'll discuss if we would actually offer them if the player would take it and more coming up here on the Locked-on Marrars podcast. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked-on podcast network, your team every day. Oh, hoi, sailors. It is Wednesday, January 24, 2024.
Starting point is 00:00:26 This is Tiding Azales and Colby Patnaud for the Locked on Maris podcast. Brought to you by Fandul. make every moment more. And right now, new customers get $150 in bonus bets guaranteed when you place a $5 bet. All you have to do is visit fanduel.com slash locked on. That's L-O-C-K-D-O-N to get yourself started. Thank you so much for making us your first listen, subscribe, like, and turn on alerts if you're watching on YouTube or subscribe and leave a five-star review on your preferred podcast platform if you like what you hear. And if you're part of the crew and rock with us every single day, let us know in the comments below.
Starting point is 00:00:55 And if you want to hear from us even more, please consider sending up for our Patreon. You can now get a free seven-day trial to check out the show. The link as well as our social accounts is in the description of this episode. So we get asked a lot about which players the Marys could extend next. So today we're going to dive into that, you know, a little bit. Like I said, in the cold open, Colby has come up with four extension proposals. And we're going to work through them right now, starting with one Mr. Matt Brash, seven-year, $47.5 million extension.
Starting point is 00:01:27 That buys out the arbitration years in 2025. 2026, 2027, and 28, and also the free agent years in 2029 and 2030. $10 million in 2020, $12 million in 2030. So not just one free agent year being
Starting point is 00:01:45 bought out, but two. So Colby, tell us a little bit more about your process with this extension, and do you think the Mariners would offer it? Should they offer it? Do you think Brash would take it? Yeah, so a couple things at play.
Starting point is 00:02:01 here. First of all, his 2025 arm number is an estimate, but Brash might be making league minimum next year, which in theory would give him even more incentive to take a deal like this. But the interesting thing with Brash is that he may or may not be super two eligible. Typically, the way that works is if you have two years of service time plus an additional 120 to 125 days is usually what it lands between, then you get essentially a third year. You're essentially awarded as if you're R1. You get an extra year of arbitration.
Starting point is 00:02:41 Brash is at 121, 1 in 121, which after this year would be 2 and 121. That probably makes him super too eligible, but it might not. The cutoff might be 123 or something. So I'm going to assume that he's going to be super too eligible. or I was when I made this. When you look at the numbers there that I projected for his ARB, that is roughly the same amount that Edwin Diaz got when he went through arbitration. However, he did not, however, these numbers are not adjusted for inflation,
Starting point is 00:03:12 which is part of the allure for the Mariners is that, you know, these numbers are right now they seem high. But in, you know, three, four years when those big numbers start to hit, it's going to be really a lot cheaper. And then you buy out two free agent years at $10 million and $12 million. Matt Brash on the open market right now, probably getting $15 to $18 million a year. He's a two-win reliever. So I feel really good about that.
Starting point is 00:03:42 And even if Brash is just kind of a good, not great reliever, then that market has been set this year too. It's about $9 to $12 million for that. So in four or five years, that number is probably going to jump up to $14,000. $14, $15 million for the really good relievers. That's just inflation and how the game works. So essentially right now is that the Mariners, they lock him in for the next seven years. They buy out all of his arborers, two years of free agency, and they do it at an AAV of about a little less than $7 million for an elite reliever back in high leverage reliever.
Starting point is 00:04:17 I think that is something they would consider. I think it's a pretty good idea on Brash's part as well because pitchers are volatile, especially pitchers who like Brash sometimes struggle with command. So I think that's an interesting offer for a pitcher, particularly a relief pitcher. Is it really aggressive? I bet the mayors would really love to do like $7.35 million, but I'm trying to get the player to sign this. So I'm going 7, 47 and a half, getting two years of free agency at what will be by the time we get to 20, 29, and 2030. pretty significant bargains
Starting point is 00:04:56 relative to the rest of the market. There's risk here for the Mariners. If Brash implodes, if Brash gets hurt or whatever, they're on the hook for this money. And there's really no reason for them to do it right now because they can just go year to year. I mean, Brash doesn't start to get really expensive for a reliever until 2027, which is three years away.
Starting point is 00:05:12 So they don't have to do this. And because they don't, maybe the Mariners don't offer this. And they would offer something similar or closer to like 7 and 35. Sure. To buy a little bit of safety on their end. But I think to get Brash to do it, I think this is pretty close to what you'd have to offer. We talk all the time about the volatility of bullpins of relievers. And I think from Brash's perspective, you kind of have to recognize your own potential volatility as a reliever.
Starting point is 00:05:42 And while you might be sacrificing, you know, $10, 15, 20-ish million dollars in potential earning in 2029, 2030, even 2031, by taking this extension, you have no idea where you're going to be in your career, again, as a reliever by that point. You know, for the Mariners, though, again, that works both ways, right? Because of the volatility of relievers, of bullpen guys. That for the Mariners specifically, like this shouldn't matter in the grand scheme of things, but for the mayor specifically, you know, almost $50 million in guaranteed salary is a lot of money for them. And so to commit that, you know, over 70,
Starting point is 00:06:24 years, yes, but to commit that in general to a reliever, any reliever really, is a risk. But Brash has already established himself as one of the elite relievers in baseball. I don't see that changing anytime soon. I think this is a pretty good bet. I wouldn't say that it's a safe bet. I wouldn't say that with really any reliever, but I think that it's a pretty good bet to take if you're the Mariners. I would offer Matt Brash this or something close to this. You know, signing a reliever to big money is always risky. But again, I think the number of 47.5 million like jumps out. Like that's a lot to give to a reliever.
Starting point is 00:07:01 It's over seven years. Like it is, it is, you know, six and a half million dollars a year for a guy who could be a two win reliever. You know, six and a half million dollars a year, by the way, that's about what one win is worth in the war formula. So yeah, you're not paying him for what he was. last year you're actually paying him for you know what you think it can be yeah i mean and and so i think this is an interesting deal i think it's again i still think it's possible the meritors look at this and go let's talk about this next winter let's see you do it again and then we'll get back to you right yeah it's just you do have to account for the risk that that is involved here even if it is
Starting point is 00:07:44 you know six and a half or whatever million dollars over you know so you know each year for the next seven years, which isn't a lot in the grand scheme of things. But again, those things, especially if you're going to extend other players, those things do tend to add up. And then, you know, you have to make some decisions like we've unfortunately seen this winter. So, you know, and obviously I'm not trying to compare Matt Bresh to Evan White. But just saying, you know, that there are, especially when it comes to relievers, you never know when it just might go out like that. So, yeah, it's a, it's a, really interesting case study, I think.
Starting point is 00:08:22 But for both sides, I think it makes a lot of sense. And I think both sides would, would do it, or at least something similar to that. So we are going to talk about some of the bigger boys on the team. And I do mean literally in one case, Cal Raleigh. We're going to talk about Cal Raleigh in just a moment. But first, a reminder of this episode of the lockdown era's podcast is brought to you by Fandul. All right, sailors, the NFL regular season may be over, but there's still time to get in on the action with Fandul, America's number one sportsbook.
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Starting point is 00:10:18 Colby has come up with four extension proposals. We just talked about a Matt Brow. one, which I think the Mariners and Brash would both do, or at least something similar to that. But now we get into territory where it doesn't seem as clear, at least in my opinion. So first, we're going to talk about Cal Raleigh, big dumper. Colby, you have a proposal here that is five years, $56 million. It buys out Cal's arbitration years in 2025, 2025, 2026, 27, million dollars in 2025, 10 million dollars in
Starting point is 00:10:56 2026, $15 million in in 2027 and buys out one free agent year in 2028 at 20 million dollars and also includes a 2029 mutual option for $25 million with a $5 million
Starting point is 00:11:11 buyout. So tell us about your process on this. What do you think about this deal? And do you think Cal takes it? Do you think the mayor's offer it? Where are you at with this? I think the Mariners might offer, would be willing to offer something similar to this. I don't think Cal takes it. There's a lot of things that play here.
Starting point is 00:11:33 Raleigh is a really interesting case. He's going to make the league minimum for one more year. And then his RAB number next year is kind of up in the air a little bit. If he has another four-win season, it's going to be $4 to $6 million. So you project on the high end there. And then just kind of a general outline of how you increase arbitration. So that's probably about what it is. I think when I was looking at comps,
Starting point is 00:11:57 I looked at the Sean Murphy comp. That was a six-year deal worth $73 million. So just a little over 12 million AAB. Cal's getting a little over 11. But Murphy was three years, had three years left of club control, whereas Cal has four. And then you look at the big year, the free agent year you're buying. J.T. Real Muto is the highest paid catcher in baseball.
Starting point is 00:12:19 He made 23. He's making 23 million AAV. So when you look at the $20 million guaranteed and then you look at the, well, it's really $25 million guaranteed in year one, that is more than real muto because the buyout is guaranteed. So he's making at least $25 million in the one free agent year that he's selling you, that he's selling you. So, you know, Cal is a catcher who catches a ton. He's going to be 30, past 30 when this deal expires. So there's a lot of risk here for the Mariners. That is a guy whose body could very easily wear down.
Starting point is 00:12:52 already know, Cal has been through the ringer physically. He has had several major injuries that he's played through. So it's a bit of risk here for the Mariners. But is this enough to, you know, get Cal to sign on? I don't know. Like the deal, obviously, it maxes out at six years, $76 million, which is a little more than what Sean Murphy got. So I think, you know, it's in the realm of reason.
Starting point is 00:13:18 I think Cal probably looks at it and says, you know, let's, let's, let's, let's if I'm going to sell you a free agent year I'm going to sell it to you at like 30 million dollars because I'm going to adjust for inflation and all that stuff so I think you know if the mares came to Cal with this I think Cal would probably be like how about we do you know five years and 70 million I think is something that he would he would listen to and at that stage it's a lot of risk for the Mariners I mean this is a lot of risk for the mariners uh because again you know you don't know how long cow can catch uh and catching is a huge part of his value to you so Yeah.
Starting point is 00:13:52 This is, this is riskier than any of the other ones I think I proposed today. I don't think Cal takes it. I don't know if the Mariners feel comfortable offering this, but I think this is what is at least the starting point for any kind of conversation between the two sides. Yeah. Cal has a lot of wear on his body already. Already.
Starting point is 00:14:12 What does that look like in 2028? What does that look like in 2029 when he's 31, 32 years old? Yeah, I think that's a very fair thing to, to account for here or at least think about, especially if you're the Mariners and looking at the long-term viability of Cal behind the plate. Cal right now is a top five, top six producer at one of the most premium positions in baseball, if not the most premium position in all of baseball. You know, offensive producer, one of the best defenders in the game as well at that position. And if you lose that, if you lose that element of it,
Starting point is 00:14:52 he's just not as valuable of a player. That's just the fact of the matter. As much as I love Cal, he's just not as valuable if he's not catching. And it makes me less inclined to give him, you know, $25, 30-ish million, right? It's possible the bat could still improve, though.
Starting point is 00:15:09 It did improve last year. So maybe he becomes, you know, a 330 on base guy and a 250 slot or 250 batting average. And he keeps the power. And that is a viable first base slash line. So you're thinking about moving Cal to first base at some point, not anytime soon, but at some point, maybe, but then that makes him less valuable as a player. First baseman are much easier to find the catchers. So it's a very difficult deal to navigate.
Starting point is 00:15:33 There's a lot of, you know, intricacies. And if Cal is looking for the JT. Real Muto offer, as he may be worth it, like he might be worth that in 2025, but is he going to be in 2028 when he's a free agent? and he's got three more years or four more years of, you know, catching on his knees and on his back. Probably not. And the J.T. Romuto deal starting to look pretty bad for the Phillies. He was very disappointing last year. You have to be careful when you're giving catchers extensions.
Starting point is 00:16:04 Yeah. So if you're Cal, you know, you also have to take that into account. Like you got to be real with yourself and, you know, and his camp has to be, you know, real about it too. Does this make sense? do you think that if you do bet on yourself, don't take this extension and get to free agency, do you think that you're going to be able to get that
Starting point is 00:16:24 three, four, five year deal that is worth, you know, $25, $30 million a year, whatever it's going to be, you know, with inflation by that point. Do you think you're going to be able to get that? I don't know. This one is really difficult for me in terms of, from Cal's perspective,
Starting point is 00:16:43 from the mayor's perspective, I think they do this. I would offer this to them. I think they would do this. because really at the end of the day, he's not taking the mutual option, most likely. So we're really talking about one additional year. Right. And if you don't want it, then it's just a $5 million. Yeah, and you can decline it too.
Starting point is 00:17:01 Right. So you pay $5 million and, you know, you go your separate ways. But from Cal's point of view, it's a really difficult situation because you just, you don't know how you're going to feel, what you're going to be able to do by that point. And if teams are going to be willing to commit to you for three, four, five years at the dollar figure that you're going to want.
Starting point is 00:17:24 I think, I think if I was Cal, like if I was Cal's agent and I was, you know, open to an extension with Seattle and we're not doing that thing where it's like, oh, well, he's mad at management, so he's never going to sign here. Like, we don't know that. We don't. Money talks. Money talks. So does winning and all that.
Starting point is 00:17:41 Like, we don't know. Okay. So we're not going to sit here and assume he won't be interested in sign with the merits because we don't know. We have no reason to believe that. But if I was Cal's agent, I'd probably go back to the Marys and be like, we're thinking more like seven and 100. Like, you know, that that's a, you know, more reasonable AAB and all that stuff. But if I'm the Mariners, like, I'm not paying you seven years guaranteed. I'm just, I'm not. Yeah. I think, yeah, I think if you're Cal, you're going to want them to essentially be the ones to give you that three year, four year deal.
Starting point is 00:18:15 basically like I'll sign this proposal I'll sign this but you're going to tack on like I'm going to get my my JT REL Muto contract from you guys right now like on the back end of this and if you're the Mariners I don't think you can do that it's just too much risk you're listening to the Locktime Mariner's podcast thank you again for making us your first listen here as we go through some extension candidates on the Mariners it's time to look at two of the Mariners young starting pitchers we're going to start with Bryce Miller Colby you have Miller at seven years 52 million dollars You're assuming that he's super two, and we'll get into that in a second. It's pretty much what you talked about with Brash as well. This deal would buy out his arbitration years, again, assuming that he's super two in 2026, $3.5 million, $2, 27 at $6 million, $2, at $8 million, in $2209,000, also buys out one free agent year in 2030 at $18 million. And also includes a 2031 team option for $12,000. $21 million with $3 million buyout.
Starting point is 00:19:20 So basically you're adding two years of club control with this deal. So again, like I've asked you with the first two, what was your process with this? What do you think about the Mariners offering this? And do you think Miller would take it? Yeah. So Miller is almost certainly going to be super two. He would have to spend about half of this season in the minors to not be super two eligible. That's just not going to happen.
Starting point is 00:19:46 particularly since the Mariners aren't going to add any the mayors would have to add two or three starting pitchers for that to be even viable so he's going to be super two um i think when you look at miller um you're looking at a guy who is reasonably safe he has a very high floor because of the fastball value he's been durable so far uh throughout his entire baseball career um so i i think you're looking at the a v there or you're looking at the the arbiers i think that's probably what he's going to get those years. I don't think you're saving a ton of money there. Where you're saving money if you're the Mariners is in that free agent year.
Starting point is 00:20:23 Because even if Bryce Miller is just a number four starter, look at what Jamison Tyone got from the Cubs last year. Look at what Taiwan Walker got last year. Look at what Marcus Stroman got this year. They're getting about $18 million a year. In 2024, in 2030, those guys are probably getting 20, $22 to $25 million a year. Again, that's if Miller is basically just what he was last year.
Starting point is 00:20:53 And we think there's more upside here. So I think where the mayors actually end up saving their money, they'll save a little in R because those numbers aren't going to be adjusted for inflation when we get out to 27, 28, 29. So they'll save a little there. But I think the free agent year they're buying out, I think that is where they're going to save, you know, a lot of them. think in the four R-Bers, they might save about $5 million total.
Starting point is 00:21:20 I think in the free agent year, the guaranteed free agent year, they're saving at least five more million dollars. And in the team option year, it's probably another $5 million as well. So I think they're giving, I think they're saving about $15 million just based on what Miller is now. Now you factor in the upside. And there's a chance this turns into one of the best bargains in baseball. So right.
Starting point is 00:21:43 Right. The risk for them. the the the five million ish dollars that you said they might be saving in 2030 with the free agent here that could end up being 10 15 million dollars in savings depending on what miller does over the next few years i mean you look at like like austin or uh aaron nola uh got what 27 million yeah as just kind of a number three like a good number three miller can certainly do that so that's where the real savings comes in and and if you're Miller, you get paid earlier. Yeah. Yeah. Like that's the incident. You get paid earlier.
Starting point is 00:22:20 There's very little risk. If you get hurt. Because if you're, if you're Bryce Miller and you have thoracic outlet, whatever syndrome on the shoulder issue or you have really bad Tommy John or something like that, like you're probably not making this in your career. Like, that's the risky run if you don't take this deal.
Starting point is 00:22:36 $52 million in your back pocket guaranteed. Tough to walk away from. So I think that's the incentive for. to take it. And the Mariners incentive is, hey, we think that Miller is going to be like a legitimate high end number three starter. Seven years of that guy. And Miller, I think this deal ends for Bryce. It would end when he's 31. Like still within his prime, technically, the tail end of it.
Starting point is 00:23:03 But I think, you know, Bryce Miller on the open market with what he has and what he's shown already, I think he's making at least on a seven year deal, at least 75, 80 million bucks. but it's a long time to get there for price. So $52 million now isn't that bad of a deal. All right. So we're going to move on to our last extension candidate. Brian Wu. The other one at the back end of the mayor's starting rotation. Your proposal here is seven years,
Starting point is 00:23:33 $37.5 million. Bries out arbitration years in 2027 at $4 million. 2028 at $7 million, $2,29 at $10 million. and one free agent year in 2030 at $14 million with a 2031 team option for $16 million and a $2 million buyout. So tell us about it. Yeah, Wu's interesting.
Starting point is 00:23:58 He's another guy who's right on that borderline of Super 2. I think he's at 121 days. So again, it just seems more likely that he would spend time in the minors at some point over the next two years, which would knock him. down for because he only has to be in the minors for like three weeks to lose any shot of being a super two so in this case i projected that he would get three normal years of our which is roughly league minimum um or pre-arb roughly league minimum and then he'll get the standard three years of arbitration um so that's why the contract is a little bit less but also obviously brian woo has
Starting point is 00:24:34 more questions than brys miller on the health front which is why the two numbers are pretty different because major risk major right there's a lot of more risk with Brian Wu present than there is with Bryce Miller. Does that mean that Miller's definitely not going to get hurt? No, doesn't mean that Wu's definitely going to get hurt again. No, but this is the reality of the situation. So you have, you have Brian Wu for six more years. He's probably over those six years going to make about $24 million, maybe. And that's if he's healthy and if he's good. So this, this deal reflects the Mariners taking the risk on the health of Brian Wu. And then,
Starting point is 00:25:13 Obviously, where you save your money is in that free agent here, the two of them, two years of $30 million. If Brian Wu continues to develop like we think he could, those two years for Wu, probably $20 to $25 million each. So that's where you get your bargain on this deal. So the question here with both Miller and Wu is it's a two-partner, actually. One, do you need to do this right now if you're the Mariners? And two, is this your only opportunity to do it? Probably no on both fronts. Like you don't need to, like, these guys are, these guys, you have them for six more years.
Starting point is 00:25:54 Yeah. You don't need to do anything with their contracts. But if you lock them in now, then first of all, this doesn't hurt their trade value at all. So that's not any consideration. Second of all, you do have Luis Castillo, who's 31 years old. His contract will end before these two extensions kick in. And you have George Kirby and Logan Gilbert and if you don't think you can get one of those guys done or maybe both of them, then you want the answers behind you and you want some cost control there. You want some certainty there.
Starting point is 00:26:25 So I think that's the the urgency, I guess, for the Mariners. But none of the guys we talked about today do the Mariners have to do anything this winter? Like there's not any urgency here. Cal's got four years left. Brash has five years left technically. Miller and Wu both have six. So yeah, there's not a ton of urgency to get any of these deals done. But again, the cost certainty, knowing what your budget or knowing what your payroll is going to look like in a few years, knowing where you might have to maneuver money around, that is valuable.
Starting point is 00:26:58 So I think when you look at the Mariners and you look at this proposal, like, I think this is the one that is most likely to happen, to be honest. Because there is a ton of risk in Brian Wu, not, you know, not. looking for an extension right now because he's already had two massive injuries yeah and if you're woo if you have an opportunity to get some money some life-changing money you should probably do it given what your injury history is you know maybe we can negotiate that eighth year option to make it a mutual option or a player option probably has to give the the buyout away to make that happen but if you still want to hit pre-agency at you know 25 years old or sorry at 31 32 years old, that is still going to be an option for you, Avia Wu.
Starting point is 00:27:46 So I think, you know, where the Mariners are going to get their reward on this Brian Wu contract in theory, because remember, these are all wages, these are all gambles. Where they're going to make the most of their money on that contract isn't the free agent year they buy. Because if Brian Wu continues to develop like we think he could, he could realistically look the same as Bryce Miller, where Miller's looking like I'm going to get $23 million in my free agent years. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:28:12 Wu could do the same. And if you're giving him 14 and Wu's the number three we think he is, that's a massive bargain. Huge. Huge. So that's where the Mariners make their money back on this because the over the next six years, Brian Wu's probably going to make about $25 to $30 million just going through our. I would say, yeah, I would say this is the one that I feel the most confident about. second would probably be brash third miller and then fourth raleigh in terms of both sides coming together on what you proposed or something close to what you proposed yeah i'm really confident the mariners have talked to multiple of their own players just checking in about hey what would an extension look like like there's no other they're constantly trying to do that yes i think we know they tried to do it with logan we know they try to do it with jared like they haven't done one since i'm well i guess actually they've julio and dillemore
Starting point is 00:29:08 were the last two. They haven't done one this winter, but I bet it's something they're still discussing with a few guys. So we know they're willing to do it. They did it with JP. They did it with Julio. You know, they did it with Tillamore. They did it with. And sometimes they're doing it with someone, again, you know, like Dillamore,
Starting point is 00:29:26 like Andres Munoz that you're not really expecting. You know, maybe they're working on like a Justin Topa extension behind the scenes. Yeah, it could be. I mean, if you could lock Topa in right now for three years and like $5 million total, it's going to make 1.2 next year or something like that. Yeah, that makes sense. Again, cost control is like,
Starting point is 00:29:44 it may be, and if the Mariners have money to spend this winter, they saw money left in their payroll, but they can't get somebody to take it, you can still use it. And you could basically buy some, buy some more payroll relief two years down the road by signing an extension today. And I do wonder in the particular cases of someone like Bryce Miller,
Starting point is 00:30:06 if he would be more inclined to accept that kind of extension if there's some more money up front in 2024. If there's, you know, not a lot, but like, here's a million bucks. Here's two million dollars. Yeah,
Starting point is 00:30:21 here's two million bucks instead of seven, seven five. Yeah. Like, congrats, you're a millionaire now. Good for you. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:30:27 You know. Yep. By the way, real quick, just going to throw us out there. Gilbert extension, five and 90. is I think where I'm at.
Starting point is 00:30:37 I do five and 100. I wouldn't have a problem with that. Kirby, because he has an extra year, it's probably six and, six and a hundred. If you're buying out a free agent year on Gilbert, it probably has to be $27 to $30 million.
Starting point is 00:30:56 I'm thinking $30 million. Yeah. And he's got four shots at arbitration. Yeah. And then Kirby, probably the same. If you're buying free agent years, Because you're projecting and his camp is going to be projecting very high with them.
Starting point is 00:31:12 Probably. Yeah, as they should. Yeah. $28 to $34 million anywhere in that range for that free agent year or multiple free agent years. I think I think both of those guys to buy out one free agent year will cost the Mariners roughly $100 million contracts on both of them. That being said, if you could have George Kirby and Logan Gilbert for the next minimum, the next six years, at $200 million combined, take it to the bank and laugh. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:31:44 So, but yeah, obviously Gilbert and Logan, they're the most talked about extension candidates. So today we wanted to do some. Some of the others. Yeah, yeah, for sure. I mean, Cal's been talked about a lot. But that's, you know, again, that's, that's such a very, very interesting case because of his age, because of the club control that's still involved there and the position that he plays. yeah that's not as cut and dry as a lot of fans want it to be unfortunately yeah i think it's
Starting point is 00:32:14 fairly cut and dry for the mariners to a certain degree but for cal specifically i think it's a really more it's a much more interesting conversation from cow's point of view rather than the mariners in my opinion um yeah i'm kind of i'm i'm interested to see kind of where he would be at uh with that and where his camp would be at with that all right that's going to do it for us. Thank you so much for joining us here on the Lockdown Marrars podcast. For Colby Patnaud, I'm Tadang Gonzalez. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L0 underscore Mariners.
Starting point is 00:32:46 You can follow me at Tidea and Gonzalez and Colby at C-Pat-11. That's C-P-A-T-1-1. You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode. Thank you again for making us your first listen. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day and we'll see you next time. Peace.

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