Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Mariners Eyeing Michael Conforto and Seiya Suzuki

Episode Date: November 17, 2021

Hosts Ty Dane Gonzalez and Colby Patnode go over the Mariners' coaching staff changes, Scott Servais finishing second in Manager of the Year voting, the announcement of Ichiro being inducted into the Mariners Hall of Fame, the team's reported interest in Michael Conforto and Seiya Suzuki, and how Eduardo Rodriguez and Jose Berrios' deals may shape the starting pitching market.Be sure to follow or subscribe to Locked On Mariners wherever you prefer your podcasts! For questions and other inquiries, email: [e-mail] A MARINERS MYSTERY BOX FROM US!Follow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @danegnzlz | @CPat11For more of Ty and Colby, check out their Patreon: patreon.com/controlthezone/Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.BetOnline AGThere is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You are Locked-on Mariners, your daily Seattle Mariners podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome to Locked-on Mariners, your home for Daily Seattle Mariner's News and Analysis. Thank you so much for making us your first listen of the day. We are free and available on all platforms. And today is Wednesday, November 17th, 2021. I am your host, Tadian Gonzalez, still sick as I was yesterday. So we're going to see how this goes.

Bear with me on that. joined as always by my co-host colby pat node follow us on twitter at l o underscore mariners you can follow me at dane gnenzalus this d a nz lz and colby at c pat 11 that's cpat 1-1 be sure to also check out our patreon where we talk about the mariners even more and also get into some non-baseball talk twice a week we're going to be recording a new episode for all of our patrons later on today so if you want to listen to that visit patreon dot com for it slash control of zone for more information on today's episode of locked-on mariners we're going to talk about a pair of of outfielders the M's are reportedly interested in. We're also going to discuss the starting pitching market and how Eduardo Rodriguez and Jose Berrios's deals impact things. So if you like what you hear, give the show a follow or subscribe. Wherever you listen to this, we greatly appreciate it. We're going to actually kick things off here, though, by talking about a couple of news items, smaller news items that have come from the Meritors themselves over the last couple of days. We weren't able to get to this one yesterday, but the Mariners on Monday. And now,

some coaching staff changes starting with tim laker the hitting coach uh decline his offer to come back tony arnrich will now be the hitting coach for the mariners christopher ngron will now come up from tocoma and be the team's first base coach perry hill will only be the infield coach now uh andy mackay which is really the interesting one here who's been involved in the uh the player development side of everything for you know the entire depoto tenure is now joining the major league staff as a quote unquote major league coach we haven't really gotten any clarity as to what that means but colby what are your overall thoughts on the coaching staff changes yeah nothing um nothing that i think will change the day to day operation of the mariners

at least not to to the fans uh i um the the promotion of christopher nagrahn is certainly a cool thing to see, you know, it's certainly seems like it's only a matter of time before he's a manager somewhere. Heard really good things about him in Tacoma, and obviously Seattle really likes him. So they put him on the coaching staff. Perry Hill, you know, just the infield coach, not a, not the first base coach. I don't know. This is them just trying to take some responsibility off of him or if it was just just so they could get in a groan on the staff. But whatever, you know, there's, I don't think there's a limit on the number of

staff you can have. So why not? It's, it's fine. Laker was asked to come back. It sounds like they were going to give him the same title, but they wanted to change his job slightly. And he said no to that. So that's why Laker's not back.

and then no bench coach and they're not going to hire one. Jerry addressed that. He said that they're not going to have a traditional bench coach. They feel like the crew around Scott is good enough that they don't really need one. And this is just me saying this, not Jerry, but if a situation arises where Scott's got to, you know, head out of town for a few days or he gets ejected or suspended or whatever. My guess would be that Maniacca would be the acting manager. But I also wouldn't,

I also wouldn't say that Christopher Nogran wouldn't be the number two. I just throw that out there. But Maniacca has- Yes. Both have managerial, managerial experience. You know, Maniac has just managed at the big league level.

So, yeah, it's a pretty good staff. I don't, you know, I can only react so much because I don't really know these guys personally. But based on what I've heard and read and from other people who do know, I think it's a pretty good overall staff and we'll see it.

It's a lot of the familiar faces and some older faces and new roles. But yeah, nothing, nothing earth-shattering. Speaking of the coaching staff, unfortunately last night, Scott's service falling just shy of winning A.L. of the year. He finished second in the voting to Kevin Cash of the Tampa Bay raise, which, you know, when you can vote for a guy that underachieved after winning the AL pennant and then having the best record in the AL, only to go on to lose in the ALDS. I mean, you just, you got to do it, right? Apparently. Not for nothing. Scott's service went six and one against Kevin Cash. So I don't know. I don't know. But yeah, it's. A far less talented team, by the way. Significantly less talented.

So, yeah, it was, can't say I was surprised. But it is annoying, but also in the grand scheme of things, it really doesn't matter. I was, I wasn't super surprised that Scott lost, you know, East Coast bias and all that stuff. I was just surprised that it was cash. I thought for sure it was going to be Dusty Baker, didn't you? No. Why would Dusty win? He hasn't even more talented team than Cash. So, uh, but I mean, it's, it's dusty though. It's a, it's a guy that, you know, he's kind of, he's kind of one of the more recognizable names in terms of managers in baseball. Yeah. You got third place. Yeah. You got third place. I don't know. I just felt like it ultimately these awards are popularity contests, right? And I feel like Dusty is a very popular dude. I don't like them, but sure.

sure i used i used to like it but a lot of people in baseball a lot of baseball writers do sure they love dusty baker well i think that's why he probably got third because was he the third best manager no and scott service actually kind of destroyed dusty a few times uh with the his moves to dusty's moves um namely you know pinch hitting dillamore against brooks raily uh for the famous grand slam um But yeah, no, I mean, like, if we're talking about just like who's the best manager in the American League, it was Bob Melvin before he, you know, left town. But I would say Kevin Cash is probably the best manager. Sure. But did he deserve the award, the way that we know the award is given out?

No. He shouldn't have won it this year. So finally, the Mariners announcing today that. that Itiro is going to be inducted into the Mariners Hall of Fame. Congrats to Eitro. They're going to be having an Eichero weekend from August 26 to the 28th. That series is going to be against the Cleveland Guardians. What do you think about that in honoring Eichro?

I know that you wanted Rick Riz possibly beforehand, but Eitro is going to get him first. What do you think about that? That's fine. I mean, it's obviously well deserved. We knew this was coming. It seems stupid to me that they're not just making this a, Jersey retirement thing too because he's going to be a first ballot Hall of

Famer. There's no need to wait for that nonsense. But yeah, you know, it's it's expected. I kind of thought maybe they might try it last year. But this year makes sense. I think each year has got two more years. He's got to wait before he's Hall of Fame eligible. And so that's typically when they like to do these things. So not a surprise, well earned. And hopefully, you know, before too long, Rick Ray, is also takes his rifle spot in the Mariner Hall of Fame. Agreed.

Thinking back on Ishares career real quick, what is your favorite moment watching Eichero growing up? The throw against the A's? Yeah, I mean, part of that, honestly, might be Dave's call, which is, I mean, still to this day, it's one of my five favorite calls of all time.

You know, threw something out of Star Wars. It's such a great call. Mario, the walk off home run, off of Mariano. That was really cool. Beating Randy to first base in the All-Star game. That's mine. That's mine. That is such an iconic thing. I love that All-Star game.

I don't know if I've ever told you that, but I have a particular bias towards that All-Star game. I love that All-Star game. In that moment, just, when I think about Ito, that moment stands out. Clear his day to me. Right. That, to me, is the last great All-Star game. Not that there haven't been fun All-Star games, but that was Ripkin and that was Gwen and Ripkin hits the home run and Vladdy Guerrero accidentally throws his bat at Tommy LaSota and they bring out the catchers, the chess protector and you have A-Rod running over to Ripkin and pushing Ripkin to play shortstop for an inning. There was so much fun that happened there.

And obviously the Mariners, well-represented, beautiful ballpark, all that stuff too. certainly plays into it. And then Freddie gets the win. I think Kazu got the save. Ichro got the infield single. It was a great all-star game. So yeah, it's those. It's each year old breaking Cisler's record. Honestly, it's partly Ichero of coming back and retiring in Japan. That's certainly something that I'll always remember. But yeah, you know, Ichro, Ichro was huge, man. When I was in Little League, everybody wanted to wear 51, even though the jerseys didn't go that high and we saw a lot of the the bat thing and and you know the all of that stuff and kids wanted to be like each your own that's that was cool and so just that that idea it was also

kind of the first year I really clicked on to what the mariners were doing and so you know obviously each year being the best player on that team uh was was very cool for me in my first year of actually paying attention to baseball to have a guy like each year that that was awesome so yeah, a lot of moments and I'm sure there'll be a lot of tears at the ballpark when they show that awesome video package that they do every time they have a ceremony like this. Yeah, they should have put him in the home run derby man. That guy hit tanks in batting practice. He was a lot of fun to watch. That is the most tired narrative though.

Like, you know, he could hit 30 if he wanted to. I don't care. He didn't want to. So why are we talking about this? It doesn't matter. He was a lot of fun, though. and BP the couple times that I got sure absolutely but but still

it's like who cares like it's not relevant but no you put on a show yeah so we're going to talk about a couple of outfielders the Mariners are going to be targeting or reported to be targeting

right now we'll see if maybe they're closing in on one of them we'll talk about all that in just a moment but real quick a reminder of this episode of Locked on Mariners is brought to you by Bill Barr I love Thanksgiving. All of the good food and treats and plenty of them to go around. But maybe you want a yummy dessert, one that isn't so full of calories and sugar.

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So mark your calendar, Black Friday will be a huge event with all sorts of surprises. So go to Built.com, use promo code Locked15 and you'll get 15% off your order. Use promo code Locked 15 for 15% off your order at Built.com. You're listening to Lockdown Mariners. Thank you again for making us your first listen of the day, just like you. you do here every day. We greatly appreciate it. So Colby, we got a little bit of news. Well, more just rumors. But this comes from Michael Mayer of Mets Marys, who's gotten some things pretty down pat with the Mariners in the past in the Mets, of course. And he reported today that the

mariners are continuing to show interest in free agent outfielder, Michael Conforto, of course, formerly of the Mets, who has declined his qualifying offer from the Mets. And we've talked a lot about Conforto. Obviously a really solid bounce back candidate to get back to being a, you know, potential three-win player. Obviously has ties to the Pacific Northwest, grew up a Mariners fan, all that just feels like the fit is fantastic with the Mariners. And they're pursuing him, according to Michael Mayer at Mike Mayer 22 on Twitter if you want to check that out. So Colby, if Michael Conforto is the guy here for the Mariners, in the outfield.

Are you happy with that? What's the plan with that? What would you do with Conforto and working him in with Mitch Hanager and the rest of the group that you have in that outfield? Yeah, it'd be a really good signing, in my opinion. Even if it was for multiple years, I think you could justify that. Conforto can really hit. And 2021 doesn't tell the story, even though he was still, I believe, a 107.

6 WRC plus guy. So I mean, you know, 100 being average, he was 6% better than average in a down year. Typically he's 30% better roughly, 25 to 30% better than average. Like the guy can really hit. Obviously, he's a Northwest native, lived in the Seattle area, grew up a Mariners fan,

went to Oregon State, really thought he was going to be a mariner. He thought that they were going to draft him. They didn't, unfortunately. and he was apparently pretty hurt by that. He really wanted to be a mariner. Well, now they have a shot.

He's going to have a market, obviously, because he can hit and bats are valuable here. In terms of how you put him in the lineup, I think he's going to play, I think he would play all three spots, including, yes, even a little bit of center field, even though he really shouldn't be. But if Seattle really can't go get a traditional centerfielder,

then there's going to be days where they want to get, you know, hypothetically, Kellnick, Lewis, Conforto, and Hanager in the lineup. So Conforto might have to play some center field. But ultimately, he's going to play mostly right field or left field, and he's going to get his fair share of games at DH. Not a great defender, but still better than Mitch Hanigar, which not really saying much, if we're being honest,

but he is better there. And he's a left-handed bat to help balance out the lineup. He's got power. The swing will work pretty well. it's a signing that almost makes too much sense for it not to happen so yeah it would make a ton of sense

and I would be quite happy with that yeah Conforto this year and this is kind of looked at as a down year for him still really good 232 344 384 14 home runs 55 RBI 106 WRC plus he was worth only 0.8F4 but

like you said that doesn't tell the whole story and the year before that in 2020 54 games that year in the shortened season 322 412 515 with a 158 WRC plus this is a very good player that you're adding who is probably going to come at a fraction of the cost a little bit here because of the downish year that he had this year it's still going to cost you a decent chunk of change but probably not what you would have gotten him how do you hit free agency a year ago. So yeah, I love the idea of taking advantage of that and bringing in a guy that probably wants to be here.

And that's the thing is like you want guys that want to be here. And he's certainly a guy that seems like fits that bill. And he fits all the things that Jerry Depoto loves, controls his own, doesn't strike out a ton, walks quite a bit, 12.3% walk rate this year. he's got a career walk rate of 12.1%. So that's pretty much where he's been his whole career. The Mariners are going to be in on Japanese outfielders say Suzuki when he is officially posted by his team in Japan.

Jerry Depoto had already confirmed this as well a couple days ago or a day ago on 950KJR that they're going to be interested in Suzuki. So do you think there is a, a, a, world where Seiz Suzuki and Michael Conforto can coexist on the same roster. Sure. With Mitch Hanigur, Kyle Lewis, Jared Kalnick. Yes. Why not? Well, why not?

We're just going to assume that Jared Kalnick is what he was in September and he's going to be on day one. We're going to assume Kyle Lewis is healthy and ready to play in day one. We're going to assume Kyle Lewis is even a majorly quality hitter after missing pretty much an entire year. We're going to assume Mitch Hanager is not going to get hurt again. We're going to assume that the Mariners can't even sign Michael Conforto. There's a lot of assumptions there. So if you're asking me, can those five coexist on the same 26-man roster? The answer is yes, quite easily too. But I also don't think that's going to be the case. I think it's more than likely

that either Kelnick or Lewis would start the year in AAA, and that's not the worst idea in the world, particularly with Lewis, who again, basically hasn't played in a year. And that's if he's even with the organization, we've heard some things that they might be willing to move on from him. Suzuki works because he's a right-handed bat who can play a little center field. He's much better in right-field, but he can't play a little center field. He's got right-handed power, which would be a nice compliment to Conforto. He is a control-the-zone bat. He walked more than he struck.

out last year. And I think that's been a three-year trend now in Japan. There's very few concerns that he can hit at least a little bit. He should be at least an average bat with, you know, above average defense and right field, a strong arm. Not a not a base dealer per se, but certainly a good runner. Yeah, it's one of those things where it's like, look, do you think this guy can help you? And if the answer is yes, then you say, okay, we'll figure out the rest along the way. Let's get him now. As for contract, I don't know because there is a chance that maybe it costs too much of your budget to sign Conforto and Suzuki. I've seen, you know, things put Suzuki at 6.5 million.

I've seen other projections put them at 1112 AAV. So it's a pretty big margin there. But yes, they can absolutely make it work. And it starts with not just handing a starting job to Jared Kelnick or Kyle Lewis, which they shouldn't, particularly if you're trying to, you know, sell that you're, a playoff favorite. So yeah, you do that and you have the DH, you have four outfield or three outfield spots

in the DH every single night. The four guys aren't going to play all 162 games rotating between those four spots. So there's going to be plenty of at-bats to go around. So yeah, they can absolutely make it work. Real quick, of the available outfielders out there who are not traditionally center fielder, would you say Sayas Suzuki is the best fit for that spot?

you mean to play center yes or would you say maybe Markana or someone around those lines it's probably here's the problem I have not seen Suzuki play defense so I don't really feel like I can answer that

what I'm hearing from him is that he can stand out there and he's not awful but he's solidly below average whereas if you put him in a corner, he's great. Could Seattle help with that? Sure.

But also I think one of the things that people, like, I like centerfield defense. Like, who doesn't? Outfielders who can catch the ball? It's really fun. But, I mean, Adam Duvall played center field in the playoffs for Atlanta. So how much did that really hurt them? You know what I mean? Like, just don't be awful out there and you're going to be fine.

And so if you're asking me who I think would be the least awful of the non-traditional center fielders out there. Based on what I have seen, it's probably still Canada, but I don't have a great feel for how good Suzuki would actually be out there. All right, so we're going to keep on the free agent market here and look at the starting pitchers

and how Eduardo Rodriguez and Jose Barrios's recent deals might shape things up. Just a moment, but real quick, want to remind you this episode of Lockdown Mariners is brought to you by betonline. We're back and better than ever. A new web interface for the start of the basketball season and more props, odds, and lines than ever before. Bet Online remains your number one spot for all the basketball and football action this season.

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stay in Toronto for a considerable amount of time. And really the average annual. salaries on both of these deals not too crazy honestly the Eduardo Rodriguez deal has him making 15 and a half million dollars

over you know in each of the next five seasons which is well below what we had a map we were projecting him to be around 19 million AV and then Brios I believe it's what 17.8 am I correct?

Yep right about that that's uh yeah that for hose boreos that's that's a pretty good deal so colby what do you think this says about the starting pitching market i think i mean look it might just be these two guys but both of those players appeared to take a lower a v to get a longer contract so you know for rodriguez instead of getting say for 70 he wanted five seven or maybe it was for 65 or whatever. But he wanted five years for the safety and for more guaranteed money. And so he was willing to take a little bit less from Detroit to get that extra fifth year.

And I don't know what, you know, Berrios' situation is. I know he was a free agent after this year, which kind of makes me wonder why he would sign this deal. There's going to be a new CBA before you hit free agency. there's a chance you could even improve your value. And to only get, you know, 17.8, that's less than a qualifying offer per year. I mean, yes, it's 131 million, but he's 28 years old, 29. Like, he's, he's going to get a contract at least that next year in free agency. So maybe pitchers right now are valuing longer guaranteed contracts than overall AAV

because they know how volatile their situation can be. So, you know, yeah, I can take this four-year deal and get, you know, 19 million AAB. But if I'm bad after those four years or if I'm hurt, which good possibility, then I might not be able to get, you know, another deal. Or I might not be able to get another decent deal. I might have to, you know, do the Alex Wood thing where I signed for like one year, three million dollars, you know. So I'll take that extra year and I'll lose a little on the AAB. but I'll make another 12 million bucks or whatever it is. You know what I mean?

So maybe that's what's happening here. Or maybe it's just these two guys. Right. I don't. By the way, I had the numbers flipped. It was actually 18.7 A.AV. So a little over the qualifying offer for this year.

But still, it's for a guy like Barrios, who right now is a number three for the most part. Good one. Flash is number two at sometimes. Yeah. But there's certain, like, he's still young. You could still see him taking a next step.

I mean, that's a guy that you could see. I mean, especially when we're hearing rumors about Marcus Stroman potentially getting $25 million a year in this market. I mean, I would say that Jose Burrios is better than Marcus Stroman, or at least pretty close. I think he's better. I mean, yeah, like, Burrios to me is a guy that should be making. over $20 million a year in this market. So that was pretty surprising to me. And then you got, you know, a guy like,

Noah Sendergarde signing a one-year deal for $21 million. By the way, did you see the report saying that the Mets ghosted him? No. Yeah. Apparently the Mets did what Mariner's fans think they did to Kyle Seeger. Ouch. Yeah, not great, not great. So, yeah, Cindergarde apparently wanted to go back to New York and ends up in Anaheim with his deal yesterday.

But yeah, it's kind of what we said yesterday when we're talking about the CinderGard deal, that this market is just kind of all over the place. It really doesn't make sense. You know, you got some of the projections and valuations that you're hearing on certain guys like Stroman, like Stephen Matt's. They're just all over the place and don't really add up to what we're seeing. from some of these other pitchers who, you know, like Eduardo Rodriguez, who, yeah, you look at his ERA, 474 ERA last year, whatever, you look at the other numbers, like he's averaging 10Ks per nine, you know, he's, he's not really walking a ton of guys, like he's a very good pitcher. Same with Burrios.

And, and they're, they're getting sub $20 million a year. It's just, it's wild to me. So how do you think the Mariners navigate this? think this changes things at all for the Mariners and maybe their approach to the free agency market with these starting pitchers? I think Seattle, like, we know they want to add pitching. I think what this may do is that it may make somebody like John Gray a little more appealing. It might make somebody like Anthony Descliffeani or Alex Wood a little bit more appealing just because, you know, hey, if

Barrios is getting 17, you guys are worth like 12 or 13, right? I mean, just the reality of it. And so, I think maybe this might empower Seattle to be a little more aggressive on the pitching market. If for no

other reason, then it's going to be a little bit cheaper than they expected. And, you know, make no mistake, these deals, while they don't set the market for everybody, I find it extremely unlikely that anybody, you know, any of the wood, Desclaphany, gray, anybody in that grouping is going to get more than Rodriguez's

5 and 77 or whatever it is. So, yeah, that should in theory, that should in theory help Seattle, I would think. And then maybe it even helps them land a guy like Alex Cobb or Michael Lorenzen or you know it could depress the entire pitching market outside of obviously like Scher and probably Verlander.

But yeah, it should help Seattle and I think they might be aggressive and I think there's a chance that the pitcher is the first move they make. Although based on what we're hearing, a trade might be more likely there. But if Seattle wants to sign a free agent pitcher it might cost them a little less to do so

than we previously thought, which would be great. All right. Well, that's going to do it for today's show. Thank you so much for joining us here on Lockdown Mariners for Colby Pat Doad. I'm Taday and Gonzales. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L0 underscore Mariners. You can follow me at Dane Gonzalez.

It's D-A-N-ZL-Z and Colby at C-Pat 11. That's CPAT-1-1. You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode. And thank you again so much for making us your first list of the day, just like you do here every day. Greatly appreciate all the support. helping us get into the top 10 of Lockdown MLB podcast this past week. That's really cool milestone for us.

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