Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Mariners Fans Need to Mark These Important Dates in Their Calendars

Episode Date: November 4, 2022

Colby is sick, so Ty is riding solo. He discusses Jean Segura and Rafael Montero squaring off in the World Series last night, what he thinks of the Phillies' chances to turn things around, some important offseason dates and if Carlos Santana has a future in Seattle.Be sure to follow or subscribe to Locked On Mariners wherever you prefer your podcasts! For questions and other inquiries, email: [e-mail] the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @danegnzlz | @CPat11For more of Ty and Colby, check out their Patreon: patreon.com/controlthezone/BetOnlineBetOnline.net has you covered this season with more props, odds and lines than ever before. BetOnline – Where The Game Starts! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

A crucial moment in game five of the World Series came down to a pair of former Mariners. I'm going to break that down and also go over some important offseason dates that are now locked in here on the Locked on Mariners podcast. Let's get into it. You are Locked on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day. Yo, what's up, everyone? Welcome to the Locked on Mariners podcast.

It is Friday, November 4th, 2022. my name is Tidea Ngozales. This episode is brought to you by Bet Online. Bet Online has you covered all season long with more props, odds, and lines than ever before. Bet Online is where the game starts. No Colby today. He's come down with a bit of a cold, so I'm riding solo.

But thank you so much for making Locked-on Mariners your first listen. Subscribe, like, and turn on alerts if you're watching on YouTube, or subscribe and leave a five-star review on your preferred podcast platform if you like what you hear. And if you want to hear from us even more, please consider signing up for our Patreon. The link as well as our social accounts is in the description below. A lot of fun

offseason stuff going on over there. On today's show, we're going to have a more casual show. I'm going to talk a little bit about the World Series, including a fun matchup that happened in the bottom of the eighth inning of last night's game. We're also going to go over some important offseason

dates and how that pertains to the Mariners. And I'm also going to talk a little bit about Carlos Santana, who's hitting free agency in a matter of days. Going to talk about if his future lies in Seattle or elsewhere. But let's start with the World Series because the Astros are now a win away from winning a

championship and most importantly getting us to the off season and Jerry season. But the Astros now have a three two lead over the Phillies after winning three to two last night. The Phillies offense after getting a lead off home run from Kyle Schwerver in the bottom of the first just was not able to do anything. Justin Verlander gets his first career winning. in the World Series. I'm really settled in after the Phillies

just were not able to take advantage of some opportunities that they had against them, particularly a basis loaded situation in which Reese Hoskins struck out with the bases loaded. He, yeah, we'll talk about Reese Hoskins in a second because I have some stuff to say about Hoskins. But really why I wanted to talk about the World Series in particular last night's game is because there was a really interesting

matchup for Mariners fans that happened. in the bottom of the eighth, between Rafael Montero, former Mariners reliever and former Mariners shortstop, Gene Segura, both players who were recently traded by Jerry Depoto

over the last few years. And you can basically thank Jerry Depoto for what proved to be one of the best moments of this world series thus far. So chills. DePoto did it again. Say it with me, folks. DePoto did it again. Chills.

Segura ended up winning this battle. He hits a little dink shot and right field off of Montaro that lands right in front of Kyle Tucker and scores Nick Castiano's from second. Bryson Stott gets into third. So it's first and third one out and the drama is starting to set in and it seems like the Astros are on tilt. They have their backup against the wall. They go to Ryan Presley. and the Phillies have the top of the order just right around the corner.

They're at their number nine hitter Brandon Marsh, the former angel, and Marsh has one of the worst possible at bats you could put together in that situation. He strikes out three pitches, Dunzo, just non-competitive at bat. And then Schwerber comes up, hits a rope down the line,

which would have been extra bases guaranteed, likely would have given the Phillies the lead with Seguera's speed over at first. But because Mancini, Trey Mancini was holding Jean Sigura over at first, he's playing right on the bag. And the ball just comes right to him. He makes kind of an awkward looking play, but makes the play nonetheless, steps on the bag. And that ends the bottom half of the inning and ends that threat. The greatest threat that the Phillies would have for the rest of the night. because the ninth inning they were able to

put Harper on first with a hit by pitch but that was about it and that ninth inning was just it was rough for the Phillies Reese Hoskins has an awful at bat and again we'll talk about him more in a second I have something to add on him but he had an awful bat against Presley helping him out

just swinging at really anything that came close to the zone excuse me and then JT Romuto comes up up and hits what probably would have been a triple if it went off the wall. But Chas McCormick makes one of the most incredible catches I've seen in a situation like that, just an insane catch by McCormick. And that just sucked the life out of the Phillies and Citizens Bank Park. Like you could just tell it was it was over at that point. Two outs now in the bottom of the ninth.

Even with Harper coming up, there just, there wasn't any hope after that play happened. And this, you know, really. it's surprising, you know, after the Phillies hit five home runs in game three, one seven nothing, the offense has been the problem, right? And obviously give credit where it's due to the Astros pitching staff. It's been incredible all postseason long, but especially over the last two games. But this Phillies offense has been the problem for Philadelphia. And, you know, I mean, again, going back to that basis loaded situation,

against Verlander. He's really struggling there with his command and Hoskins just kind of helps him out, offers at a first pitch slider. And I think he fell down 02 and worked it back to like a 2-2 count or something like that. And then ended up striking out.

But from that point forward, Verlander was able to really settle in. He was starting to find his slider. And he ends up, you know, as I noted earlier, getting his first career win in the World Series. And that was the Phillies best opportunity to retake control of this series. Because Verlander, as crazy as is to say about a guy that is most likely going to win the American League Cy Young,

he's been the most hitable pitcher in really the entire Astros pitching staff this postseason. and the Phillies just didn't do themselves any favors here. And they got to figure it out quick because Framber Valdez is now getting the ball in game six. And I just don't know how you recover if you're the Phillies from the last two days and then having to face Valdez. Because Valdez has been incredible this postseason, all postseason long he's been magnificent. And I'm sure he's going to be magnificent again in game six, which puts a lot of pressure on Zach Wheeler to have the game of his life while he's kind of dealing with a little stuff with a little something as well. And this offense is just really struggling. And so,

you know, if you're the Phillies, I think, you know, if you're manager Rob Thompson, you have to do something here. And you guys know how I feel about lineup construction and wanting to get my best hitters at the top of my, at the top of the lineup to guarantee they have the most abats of anyone in the lineup. And right now, I don't think they're doing that, frankly. Bryce Harper, I know he hasn't been great the last couple of games,

but he's having an incredible postseason. And he's hitting fourth in that lineup. That's a ways to go, especially when Nick Cassiano's is really the only hitter that you truly fear behind Harper. And when you have Hoskins, putting together the bats that he has the last couple of games out of the two

spot. I just don't know how you can justify that. I know they want the one, two, three of Schwerber Hoskins and Riumuto to set the table for Harper, but look at last night. Two outs, bottom of the ninth, no one on base, Harper's up, and at that point, the Astros can pitch to him however they want. He ends up getting hit by a pitch and doesn't get a chance to tie the game or really do any damage because the Astros don't really fear anyone behind him. Even Nick Castiano's, I believe Sussputt's family barbecue tweeted last night that Cassiano

hasn't hit a home run since August 27th. So while Cassiano says the track record, what he's done as of late, you're not really fearing him in that situation. And so not only do I think that they need to put Harper closer, closer. to the top of the lineup in order to gary bats, but to put some guys that actually strike fear and that pitching staff behind him

so that they basically have to pitch to him and that if they get into situations like that because I mean, imagine if Harper led that ending off instead and how that kind of changes the complexion of that inning as a whole. So, you know, now they're backs against the wall.

They're going to play at least one elimination game here coming up. I think you've got to try something because right now what they have going on is just not working. Their offense is actually very Mariners-esque right now. It's we either hit home runs or busts. We can't move the line at all. The Phillies are not moving the line whatsoever. They're not able to manufacture runs that way. And so I think that I mean like I don't think that that moving Harper up the lineup necessarily changes that.

But I think it gives you a better opportunity to do some damage in key situations than your lineup currently is right now. So with that said, it's starting to look a lot like the Astros are going to win the World Series. Because again, I just I don't think that the Phillies can recover from the way the last. couple of nights have gone getting no hit, losing in the fashion that they did last night, and with the way that the offense is playing, and with the flaws of this defense and the pitching staff, I just, I don't see it, especially against Valdez. So yeah, and it sucks if you're a Seattle sports fan overall. If you're a Seahawks fan and a Mariners fan, you're probably going to end up

seeing the Rams win a Super Bowl and the Astros win a World Series in the same year. So despite how fun this year has been overall for Seattle sports fans with what the storm did, what the Sounders have done, even though they didn't make the playoffs this year, but what they

were able to do in the, I don't watch soccer, but they won like a Champions League thing or something like that. They were like the first US team to do something like that. The Mariners being in the playoffs for the first time in 21 years, what the Seahawks and Gino Smith have done. what the Crackin are doing right now.

It's been a really fun year, but then also the two most, you know, two of the most hated rivals in Seattle sports right now are the champions of their respective leagues, or at least the Astros are looking like they're about to be. So that is not particularly fun. But you know what is fun? The off season, particularly Jerry's season. And it is upon us.

We are getting very close. And now that we know that this series is either ending in six or six, games. We have some really important offseason dates now locked into place. But before we get into those quick reminder, this episode of Locked on Mariners is brought to you by BetOnline. Betonline.net is your number one source for betting on football and the start of the new basketball season.

Find all the latest player developments, team matchups, news, podcasts, and in-depth analysis on every game. And as always, Bet Online remains your continued source for all your sports wagering information with live betting and up to the minute scores for every sport out there. It is the fastest and easiest way to check. in on all your favorite games and events, including MLB, MMA, boxing, and golf. Head to the website today or use your mobile device to learn more. Bet Online is where the game starts.

You're listening to the Lockdown Mariners podcast. Thank you again for making this your first listen. So let's get into these off-season dates. This comes from Chris Ctillo of MassLive.com, Red Sox Beat Reporter, who has his ear to the ground with really all things, Major League Baseball. He's a good follow to have at least during the off season. He has some key dates here that are finalized now for the off season.

So starting on Tuesday, November 8th, the GM meetings will be happening from the 8th through the 10th in Las Vegas. And that's basically when the ball gets rolling for negotiations, particularly between teams for trades. There's also obviously going to be some agents there as well and you start to get the ball rolling on a free agent negotiations. But yeah, that's really where the first pieces kind of get put in place for trades. And there will be a couple of trades that happen and maybe the Mariners will get involved in that. But that's mostly going to be, we're not going to see a lot of stuff come out from there. But there's going to be a lot of work that's done behind closed doors

during those meetings. And that's kind of where like some of the trades that will see maybe a month from now or so get started, where the conversations start to happen on those. Then at the same time, so depending on if there's a game seven, either the eighth or the ninth will be the opt-out deadline for guys like Xander Bogartz and Carlos Correa, guys that the Mariners might have some interest in. then November 10th or the 11th, depending on if there's game 7 again, team options and qualifying offers will be due.

So this is a really key date for the Mariners in particular when it comes to Mitch Hanager and what they want to do with Hanager. Now, I'm of the belief that they will not give Hanager the $20-ish million qualifying offer because I don't think that they want to run the risk of him. actually accepting that because, you know, even though that it's just a one-year commitment, $20 million for a player that has the injury history that Hanager has and hasn't, you know, produced in the way that he would hope is a lot of money. And so I think there's a real legitimate chance that he would actually accept that.

And I don't know if the Mariners want to run that risk of him accepting it for the possibility of getting what would likely be a third round draft pick. I don't think that that's worth it because, you know, whether you want Hanager back or not, $20 million is a lot of money for the, that's going to be a huge chunk of your 2023 payroll. That might be very well a third, if not more, of your available 2023 payroll. So that has to be taken into account here. And again, with the way that Hanager's injury history is gone, And the way that he played towards the end of the season,

he's not a $20 million player. Like, let's just be real about it. Like, if you're going to get Mitch Hanager back, you would be better served doing it on a deal that pays him somewhere in the $10 to $15 million A.AV range, not the $20 million range. So, and going off of what Justin Hollander said in the Mariners' end of season press conference, I think they're not going to extend. that qualifying offer to Mitch,

which now gives Mitch the freedom to, you know, go look for an opportunity elsewhere without a draft pick being attached to him where, you know, a team will have to give up a draft pick. And for someone, again, with the injury history and all that, that could lead to him waiting for a long time to sign if he has that qualifying offer attached to him. So if he doesn't, I think he actually gets,

some interest pretty early on. And that might solidify him not returning either because I think he will get quite a bit of interest. And I think the Mariners really, if they are going to bring Hanager back, it's going to be a little

ways down the road when they have a clearer picture of how the rest of the roster is coming together, not right away. And I think Hanager just ends up signing before they get to that point. So November 15th. So I said yesterday, that I think the Mariners could have waited until December to make their decision on Rule 5 eligible players

and who they add to their 40-man roster to protect from the Rule 5 draft. But that's not the case. The deadline for Rule 5 protection is November 15th. So guys like Cade Marlowe, Travis Coon, Joseph Hernandez, etc., guys that are eligible for the Rule 5 draft and may very well get picked by another team. Now, keep in mind, whichever team does pick them has to keep them on their 26-man roster for the entire year where they get offered back to their original team.

But if they want to protect any of those guys, they have to do it by the 15th. And of course, they're going to have five roster spots open up here in the coming days with the impending free agencies of Kirk Casale, Carlos Santana, Adam Frazier, Mitch Hanager, and Matthew Boyd. They are going to add Casey Sadler and Tom Murphy back to the 40-man roster. coming off of the 60-day IL, but that still gives them four spots, four available spots on their 40-man roster to add some of those guys. So I at least think that Hernandez, Isaiah Campbell, and Cade Marlowe,

potentially more could get added there by the 15th, but the Mariners have to make that decision in the next 10 or so days. So on the 18th is the non-tender deadline. So if you have arbitration-eligible players who you don't want to go into arbitration with, you don't have any interest in bringing back. You have to make that decision if you want to non-tender them by the 18th, or if you want to tender a contract to them. And then the arbitration process begins and all that stuff.

I don't really think that there's anyone truly at risk of getting non-tendered by the Mariners. Maybe Ryan Buraki, maybe Diego Castillo, but Baraki, I believe, is projected by MLB trade rumors to only make $1.1 million in arbitration. Excuse me. And I think the, I think Castillo is projected for like $3.3 million, just something like that. So it's not, neither of those are huge numbers. Neither of those would prevent, would necessarily prevent the Mariners from, from keeping them. And then qualifying offers,

qualifying offer decisions are due. So whether a player wants to accept the qualifying offer or not, that decision has to be made on either the 20th or the 21st. Again, that's dependent on if the, if there's a game seven in the World Series. So if there's a game 6, it'll be the 20th.

If there's a game 7th, it'll be on the 21st. Then finally, the winter meetings, we knew this already. The winter meetings start on December 5th and run through December 7th in San Diego. And that should be pretty busy. We finally actually have a winter meetings after last year's lockout.

So that'll be a lot of fun. And that'll be a lot of fun for us to cover. So overall, now we kind of know what's going on here. And so that should also give you guys an idea of kind of how we'll be scheduling or mapping out our. slate of Lockdown Mariners episodes here over the course of the off season. So there's going to be plenty to talk about. And really, anything can happen at any given time. So lastly, I want to talk a little bit about Carlos Santana, who's going to be a free agent very soon here in the coming days.

He's 36 years old. He's basically going to play the 2023 season at age 37, the entirety of it. He turns 37 on April 8th, so about a week and a half after the, or about a week after the, after opening day. And this year, you know, solid year for him. I mean, if you put his numbers in a vacuum, it's not great, especially for a first base slash DH type. 202, 316, 376, 102 WRC plus. Did have 19 home runs, 60 RBI, 17.4% walk rate, or 17.4% strikeout rate, rather, and a 14% walk rate.

Those are both really, really good numbers, of course. The walk rate especially is elite. And he had, you know, of course, had some really big moments in the season and the postseason since being acquired from the Royals at the end of June. And then, you know, you look at his baseball savant numbers and then, I mean, they're incredible. There are tons of red on his baseball savant page. 81st percentile on average X of velocity 75th percentile and max X of velocity 76 percentile in hard hit rate 88th percentile in ex-Woba 59th percentile in X-Batting average 74th percentile in expected slugging 60th percentile in barrel rate

74th percentile in K rate 97th percentile in walk rate 71st percentile in width percentage 87th percentile in chase rate and then he was a pretty good defender as well 83rd percentile and outs above average, of course, didn't get a ton of opportunities at first base, especially when Thai France was healthy. But he was able to contribute in a multitude of ways to this team. And of course, the big thing on him as well is the leadership aspect, right? Julio Rodriguez looks up to him immensely. He's just, you know, he's one of the very few veterans that were in that clubhouse overall.

And the team kind of, you know, rallied around. him, right? I think he was also the reason for the for the circle dance or at least some players, I think have said that he, he, that was at least his idea or he was kind of champion that or whatever. So he was a big part of building the Mariners culture into what it was by the end of the season. And I think for that reason alone, there is going to be a consideration there to bring him back. But that said, I think if they do bring him back, that's going to be a decision that ends up getting made in January, February, sometime when the picture of this roster is a lot more clear and they're basically just putting the finishing touches on the roster before they head to Arizona

for spring training. Because right now, again, you know, he's getting older. The last two years before this year were dreadful 82 WRC plus in 2021, 99 WRC plus in 2020. And then this year, I mean, like the numbers, again, like a 376 slugging percentage for a guy that only plays for space in DH is bad. Like, let's just say it. It's bad. And so, you know, how much of that do you think is actually going to carry over to next year? And how much do you think that, you know, his baseball savant numbers suggest that he's going to be a better hitter next year? And, of course, you know, how much do you think the shift is going to help him?

like how much is he you know is he going to actually hit for more singles and therefore get on base more and so his on base percentage and his batting average is going to go up but how much is that going to be by those are things that you have to consider year and especially because like the the baseball savant numbers as as extreme as they are they might be a little bit of a fluke because you look at twenty twenty fourth percentile on average x velocity 79th percentile and max x of velocity 55th percentile and hard hit rate 58th percent on Ex-Weloba, 34th percentile, and expecting batting average. You get the point. It's basically, it's nowhere close to what he did in 2020. 2020 was a little bit closer to what he did this year. And then like 2019, when he was, you know, when he hit for like a 136 WRC Plus, it was like that. But I just, there's a lot of like ifs and maybes here that I just, I feel uncomfortable, doing that and you know look you don't well well we've talked about the possibility of adding another

first basement or a guy that can play first base to this roster it's not necessarily it's not necessary because you do have a starting first basement in Thai france and you know you have other guys that can play some first base still more played a lot of first base before he signed with the mariners um and you know it's overall like really Relative to the rest of the positions, you know, on a baseball field, first base is relatively the easiest position to pick up. Now, don't misconstrue that as me saying that first base is easy. It's not.

But it's the easiest for a player that hasn't necessarily played it before to pick up. And so for me, why not just give Jesse Winker a first base glove and see what happens there? You know, Abraham Toro maybe could play over there if he ends up making the roster. Louis Srens, you know, the point is, like, there are other ways to get reps over at first base without having to commit to someone that, that exclusively plays there to, in order to get, you know,

Thai France some time off, what have you, or if he gets injured again, whatever. But for me, like, I, especially because you have France in place, signing Santana means that Santana is primarily going to be, your DH again. And I don't think the Mariners want that. I definitely don't want that because I want to be able to, and I think the Mariners want this too,

excuse me, to rotate players in and out of the DH spot. We talked yesterday about how A. E. E. E. E. Heneoswres played 150 games despite having a significant finger injury. And a lot of those games were played at third base. And so it would be nice to get him some more reps at DH. It would be nice that, you know, if you do re-endio, night with Mitch Hanager to get him some DH reps and get him

some days off in the outfield, especially because outside of his arm, he's not a particularly good defender. You know, Jesse Winker, if you keep him, like he should primarily hit out of the DH, I would think, or play first base. You know, and then I guess you can live

with him playing some left field if he's willing to put the work in. But, you know, I think that that DH spot is going to be very valuable to you. next year and too valuable for you to use it on a guy that is slugging well below 400. You just can't have that, right? Like even with the 19 home runs, a sub 400 slugging percentage is not good for a guy that does not provide you any sort of versatility, defensively speaking, and any value on the base pass.

And that's a very limited bench player to have as well if he's someone that maybe doesn't necessarily get to primarily. get to primarily DH but comes off the bench. He's a decent pitch hunting option and all that. Don't get me wrong, but that's a very limited asset that you have. If you start the season off with him, fine. And I get it again from the clubhouse perspective and how much he, you know, how well respected he is. But from a pure roster construction and production standpoint,

It's not an obvious fit. It's not an obvious fit. And I think this is something that Carlos Santana is like your plan Z, really. He's not plan A. He's not plan B. He's not plan C. He's plan Z. He's all the way down the list.

He's your last resort. Basically, if you're not able to fill out the bench and the rest of your lineup the way that you want to. Because at least you can trust him. And I don't think he's someone that's going to sign early on with anyone. I think he's someone that ends up signing relatively close to spring training. so there's a lot to consider there with Santana because you know the argument can be made that hey like maybe he's even better than he was this year when you look at his savant numbers and you know with the shift ban like maybe he gets his batting average up and he gets his on base up but still the slugging percentage or lack thereof is really concerning for me for a guy that is going to be 37 years old and only plays first base and dhs uh lastly before we uh before I hop off of here.

We're going to be starting up mailbag Monday, this upcoming Monday. So we're going to limit it to people in the YouTube comments. So if you're listening right now, head on over to our YouTube channel. Go to this episode and leave a comment down below this episode. And we'll answer as many questions as we can. We're likely not going to get to all of them. But ask us, whatever you want. Ask us, Mariners stuff.

Ask us non-mariner stuff. doesn't matter. Sometimes those are fun as well. And then we will again, we'll answer as many as we possibly can on the next episode. But that's going to do it for the show. Thank you so much for joining me here on the Lockdown

Mariner's podcast. Be sure to give the show a follow on Twitter at LO underscore Mariners and you can follow me at Dane Gonzalez. It's E-A-N-Z-L-Z and you can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode. And thank you again for making Lockdown Mariners your first listen. For your next listen, check out the Locked-on Sports Today podcast featuring the biggest stories of the day plus instant

reactions big game recaps and the take of the day it's available on the odyssey app of youtube and wherever you get your podcast and with that have yourself a beautiful baseball day and we'll see you on monday peace