Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Mariners Head to Cleveland as Heavy AL Wild-Card Favorites

Episode Date: September 2, 2022

Fresh off a three-game sweep of the Tigers, the Mariners square off with the Guardians for another weekend set and the pitching probables favor Seattle heavily. Ty and Colby discuss how things shape up and which American League wild-card contender has the most pressure on them over the final month of the season.Be sure to follow or subscribe to Locked On Mariners wherever you prefer your podcasts! For questions and other inquiries, email: [e-mail] up to date with all things Mariners at Inside the Mariners - a FanNation website covering the Seattle Mariners on the Sports Illustrated network.Follow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @danegnzlz | @CPat11 | @InsideMarinersFor more of Ty and Colby, check out their Patreon: patreon.com/controlthezone/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The Mariners wrap up their season set with a team they can very well see in the postseason and the pitching matchups favor them heavily. But will they be able to take their second straight series from the Guardians? All that and more coming up here on the Lockdown Mariners podcast. Colby, hit it. You are Locked on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day.

What's up, everyone? Welcome to the Lockdown Mariners podcast. It is Friday, September 2nd. 2022 and thank you so much for making us your first listen of the day. We are free and available in all platforms with new episodes dropping every Monday through Friday. I am your host, Tyane Gonzalez, joined as always by my

host, Colby Patnode. We cover the Mariners over at Inside the Mariners.com for fan nation over on the Sports Illustrated Network. Be sure to follow the show on Twitter at L0 underscore Mariners. Follow Inside the Mariners at Inside Mariners. You can follow me at Dan Gonzalez, the C-A-N-Z-L-Z and Colby at C-P-E-E-T-1-1. Be sure. Also check out our

Patreon over at patreon.com, 4,000-C-C-C-R-S-C-C-C-C-C-C-R the zone you post two additional podcasts on there every single week again that is patreon.com forward slash control the zone and if this is your first time joining us here on the lockdown mariners podcast welcome to the show if you like what you hear give us a follow or subscribe wherever you listen to this and if you're watching us on youtube hit the subscribe button turn on the notification bell and give this video a thumbs up we greatly appreciate it the mariners kick off a three game series with the guardians tonight in cleveland will be getting into the pitching matchups and how well those have shaken out for the mariners especially as of the last 10 or so minutes

as well as which American League wild card contender has the most pressure on them in the final month of the season. As of the Mariners, this of the Blue Jays, as of the rays, we'll get into all that later on in the show. But let's hop into this three game series coming up for the Mariners this weekend against the Cleveland Guardians. They took three or four from the Guardians just recently at T-Mobile Park last weekend. They're going to see them again. And once again, they will have Luis Castillo and Robbie Ray going for them. and they'll have George Kirby gone for them in the final game. And for tonight's game, which will be started by Luis Castillo for the Mariners,

the Guardians were supposed to counter with Zach Plesack, but he's been scratched from the start tonight with a hand injury. And now Cody Morris will be making his Major League debut for the Guardians as an opener, we presume, because the last time he threw a baseball down in AAA, he only threw 28 pitches. so, and he's returning from injury. So does this work out even better for the Mariners than facing Pleasack, Colby? Judging by the minor league numbers, no.

Morris misses a ton of bats and he doesn't walk guys. It's, it looks like Cleveland has, you know, created another bona fide starter out of thin air like they seem to do every, every couple of years now. So, and police sack's not very good. He was fine against the Mariners last time out, but that's mostly because the Mariners' offense is abysmal. So, no, I don't know if they're catching a break here or not. I guess getting to the bullpen and kind of, you know, setting the tone in game one of forcing Cleveland to use their bullpen as beneficial. But it's a pretty good bullpen. So it's certainly not a cakewalk by any stretch.

So we'll see how long more can go. Hopefully, you know, it's just an inning or two. But, yeah, you know, and I do feel like sometimes the Mariners operate best second, third, time through the lineup seeing the same guy. The first time through the lineup is usually a disaster for the Mariners. And then they make their adjustments and they can score a couple runs. They're not going to see anybody twice tonight. So we'll see how it goes.

But I wouldn't say it's a beneficial scratch for the Mariners. But I will say that pitching matchups still should favor them. Right. I mean, so it would be hard to say that they don't have the advantage heading into tonight's game. Well, perhaps the one way that it does benefit them. And we'll see, you know, as you said, how long Morris is actually able to go in this game. Maybe the Mariners run him out of the first inning or, you know, maybe he's able to go three or four innings.

And that kind of helps the guardians save their bullpen. But, you know, there's a possibility here that the guardians are going to have to use quite a few guys out of their bullpen. And that's going to tax them for the rest of the weekend. So that puts them in a disadvantageous spot for the next two games. And this is, you know, one of the better bullpins than baseball. So anything you can do to chip away at them, I mean, that helps. that certainly helps you for the rest of the way here. All right.

Then tomorrow it's going to be Robbie Ray versus Aaron Savale. And Savali, the Dillamore, of course, hit a three-run home run off of him, but that was about it that they could get off of Savale. So hopefully, especially with Dillamore, not with the team right now. Hopefully someone else is able to step up and they're able to get a few runs off of him.

But Robbie Ray going on the bump for the Mariners on that one. So, you know, advantage mariners once again on paper. And then Sunday, this is where it becomes, this is probably the closest pitching matchup between these two teams. Cal Quantrell versus George Kirby. I still favor Kirby in this one, but Quantrell is a really nice arm and he's having a pretty good year. Yeah.

You avoid McKinsey. You avoid Bieber. That's really nice. So, yeah, you know, pitching matchups line up pretty well. You know, who's going to hit the home run off of Savali this time? We know it won't be Jake Lamb. The Mariners refused to use him for some reason. So I don't know, Carlos Santana, I guess.

It's just one of those matchups where this is why when you look at the schedule and you say, well, they have the advantage here, they have the advantage here, they have the NUOL. Do they? Because the Mariners in this particular case are lining up their three best and they're going up against the three worst of the guardians. So it's one of those cautionary tales like, how is Cleveland playing? Well, they just lost three or four to the Mariners. they lost two or three to Baltimore. So Cleveland's not playing well right now either over the last week.

You know, before that they were playing great. So it's one of those things. It is part of like that caution we give you every time you look ahead in the schedule. But things happen to line up for the Mariners really well right here. And they need to take advantage of it. Hopefully they can find a way to win this series, scratch out a few runs. And, you know, continue to get the dominant performances they have from Castillo, Ray, and Kirby. So things looking up for the Mariners.

you know, it's going to be a common theme over the next 30 games. Can the offense do enough? Because you feel really good about the pitching. Yeah. Yeah, the pitching should be able to come through here. Just need to get, you know, a couple of, a couple of runs, a couple of timely runs here and there and, you know, be able to, you know, get out ahead because, again,

can't win these games zero to negative one. You've got to be able to score some runs. I know we harp on it all the time about the offense. And yes, this is a pitching and defense. team, but you got to be able to score some runs to win these games. And hopefully they're able to take advantage of these pitching matchups because, again, like you said, you don't have to face Tristan McKenzie and you don't have to face Shane Bieber. This is a gift from the baseball gods going into the series.

Take advantage of it. And also, you know, again, if there is a disappointment here, you did get a little bit of a buffer sweeping the tigers instead of, you know, taking two or three there. So there is a little bit of a buffer there for disappointment. But don't, you know, avoid. avoid disappointment at all costs here, continue to stack wins because every single win

is just one step closer to finally end the drought. Extend the buffer, right? Go take two or three. And then all of a sudden you won, you know, you won, what is that,

eight out of your last nine. And you're like, okay, great. Now we go and we have a setback against San Diego or Atlanta. It's fine. It's fine.

We're sitting fine. And the Mariners are in a good spot. I think they're three and a half clear of the playoffs right now of the cutoff line. So yeah. every win is massive because you're not chasing anybody. You don't need anybody else to do anything for that win to carry any weight. So you just keep winning.

Your magic number goes down and you get one step closer to the playoffs. So just win, just win. Find a way to win. I don't care how you do it. Find a way. Win a series. Mariners, 15 games over 500 now at 73 and 58. They have a, I believe, a one and a half game lead.

over the Toronto Blue Jays for the second wild card. And they're about a half game behind of the Tampa Bay raise for the first wild card. And of course, you know, the twins are also in the mix still. The guardians, you know, are still in the mix because whoever loses the central is going to be, you know, kind of hovering around the wild card conversation as well. The Orioles as well, they're still, you know, they're still winning games. They're still hanging around somehow. So which of those teams has the most pressure on them?

Is it the Mariners? Is it the Blue Jays? Is it the Rays? We'll be getting into all that Injusted moment, but real quick, a message from the NHTSA. Are you one of those people who thinks it's okay to drive Stone?

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Thank you again for making us your first listen of the day, just like you do here every single day. So we all know about the Mariners' remaining strength of schedule. They only have eight games remaining against teams at or above 500 right now. Three against Cleveland, this weekend and then after that their next two series are also against teams above

500 and then they're done with those teams. They are done with the upper echelon of Major League Baseball. They have three against Cleveland, three against Atlanta, two against San Diego, just eight more games. Now compare that to the rest of the teams they're in the mix with here

in the wild card conversation. That's nothing. You look at the Blue Jays here, 24 games remaining. out of their 31 against teams above 500. 10 versus Baltimore, including the final series of the year. 9 versus Tampa Bay, 3 versus the Yankees who are skitting, admittedly,

and then 2 versus the Phillies. Then you look at Tampa Bay, also 24 games against teams with a record of 500 or greater. 9 versus Toronto, 6 versus the Yankees, six versus the Astros and then three versus the guardians the twins and the

guardians have the fewest remaining games against teams above 500 well you know second and third fewest behind the Mariners twins with 12 remaining eight against the guardians and then four against the Yankees and then Cleveland with 14 including eight

against the twins three against the M's and then three against the race. So looking at these numbers, just math and using common sense about where these teams stand and all this stuff, the Mariners have the pretty, you know,

it's very clear. The Mariners have the clearest path to getting to the postseason here. Because you look at all those ALEs teams, they're all going to be playing each other. They're all going to be beaten up on each other. A lot of those remaining games against teams above 500 are against one another. and even some of those teams cross over into the central against some of the central teams that you're in the mix with here.

Meanwhile, you get to handle business against the Guardians this weekend, and then after that, you're remaining games against top teams or in the National League. They don't matter to you. They don't, like, those teams do not matter to you in this conversation whatsoever. So, I mean, and then after that, you know, you face the Rangers, you face the Angels, you face the A's, like, you should be good to go. should be good to go if you're the Mariners. So with that, however, does that mean that the Mariners have the most pressure here over the final month of the season? Or is it all those teams that are currently in the mix, but, you know, they very well know that one bad series could derail everything for them against one of these teams that they're competing with?

Yeah, it's kind of a different pressure, right? The Mariners pressure is that they haven't been in the playoffs in 20 years and they're trying to break that drought. and they're in the driver's seat and they got their fan base energized and they have like a 95.8% chance of, you know, ending their drought. And so that's their pressure. It's not so much the pressure from the teams they're playing. It's that pressure of not blowing essentially, you know, the drought killer, right? Like, let's be real about it.

Blow that lead. So that's a different. On paper, this is a layup. This is a layup for the Mariners. Like it's, yeah. It's not like, it's not a tough road at all. You know, obviously it's baseball at the end of the day. You, you know, can have hiccups.

Any team can beat you on any given day, but this is a layup for the Mariners. If they fail, if they come up short here somehow, it's a disaster. It's a collapse. Yeah. So it's, again, I think from, from that perspective, the Mariners do have. still have pressure on them despite an easy schedule because there's basically there's no way the mariners miss the playoffs and we don't label it a choke job right that's how good a position they're in right now uh so i i think when you kind of look at the the schedule and whatnot and like from the

schedule aspect i think it's actually Toronto so uh uh i because you kind of look at Toronto, they've spent a lot of money. They've kind of positioned themselves as we're World Series contenders. We're here to win. And we went out and we gave, we traded all that for Brios. And we, we, you know, we gave them that big extension. And we, we've done all of these things, kind of set ourselves up as, as World Series contenders. And if they go three and seven against Baltimore, they're going to lose out to a plucky Orioles team that basically punted this year. and even traded away their best players at the trade deadline. And they still couldn't beat them.

That's a lot of pressure on Baltimore or on Toronto. So I actually think Toronto probably has the most pressure. They're not playing well right now either. So things are kind of stacking up poorly for them. So I kind of feel like Toronto probably has the most pressure on them, you know, heading into this stretch run. But the Mariners pressure is there. It's just it's different.

It's not it's internal pressure, not, you know, external pressure. So we'll see how it works out for him. But yeah, I wouldn't feel too comfortable with my playoff positioning if I was a Blue Jays fan right now. Yeah, I was I was tweeting that last night that, you know, this team is not playing very good ball right now. They just got swept by the Angels. They lost, I believe, two or three to the Cubs, all that at home. And they have pretty glaring flaws right now. They're playing with about a half of a rotation. Their bullpen sucks and they're not getting the hitting that they should be out of that lineup. you know, this is a lineup that they're expecting to do a lot of damage and to be able to outscore.

They're basically the antithesis of what the Mariners are, right? We want to score a lot of runs and we want to try to just outscore teams and shootouts. That's what the Blue Jays are designed to do for the most part. And then at the top of their rotation, they're designed to, you know, shut teams down, right? Kevin Gossman, Jose Barrios, Alec Manoa, those guys are supposed to shut other teams down. And they're not getting that a ton right now. And the offense is just floundering a little bit. And again, they got 10 more games against an Orioles team that's surging,

including the final series of the year. And speaking of the Orioles, my mistake, I forgot to put them in the graphic that we put up here. That's what I get for making a graphic five minutes before we hop on the show. But they have four remaining against the Blue Jays coming up, then three more against them on the road, then four more against the Astros in Baltimore. And then finally they wrap up the season with the Yankees,

on the road and then three more against the Blue Jays in Baltimore for that final series. So, you know, again, even for the Orioles, it's a tough road, you know, because outside of the, the 10 games against the Jays, they get the Yankees again, they get the Astros again. Like that Astros series, if they lose three or four, you know, and the Astros could very easily take three or four from the Orioles, they might be done. That might be it for them. You know, one wrong move here can mess things up for. any of these AL East teams, and especially any of these AL Central teams, whether it would be

the Twins or the Guardians, because I would be stunned if two AL Central teams made the postseason this year. I feel that it's the division winner, and that's it. None of those teams are, neither one of those teams are making the wild card. Yeah, I mean, you just kind of look at it right now. Minnesota's three games back of the last wild card spot. There are five games back of the first wild card spot. So you look at it and you say, I mean, it just seems unlike maybe they can catch Toronto. They're only three back there. But even that three back with 30 to play is quite a bit. So it's every day the season gets shorter. Your odds get lower if you're not in the driver's seat. So yeah, Minnesota's inclusion in the wild card, honestly, is really just it's Cleveland versus

Minnesota. So they are competing for a one playoff spot. I just don't believe that spot is, is the wild card. I believe the Central will get one team in. I think, you know, Cleveland or Minnesota is going to win 85, 86 games and win that division. But I don't think that, you know, winning 85 of your Minnesota, for example, I don't think you're going to have more wins than Tampa or Seattle. Again, maybe Toronto, Baltimore and Toronto really beat up on each other, but Minnesota to me is playing for their division. And that's their playoff hope is the division title. Wild card for me, Right now, and things can change. All Minnesota has to do is like Minnesota goes on a seven-game winning streak,

and all of a sudden, everything changes, right? So they're still in it. But for me right now, the way I kind of have to look at it is that it's four teams for the three wildcard spots, and it's two teams for the central. So technically six teams competing for four playoff spots, but if you're a Mariners fan, really the only spot you can win and should care about is the wild card. So, yeah, from our perspective, it's four teams battling for three spots. And the Mariners are the team best equipped to, you know, not only win the,

win one of those wildcard spots, but honestly, they're in best position to host to be the four seed. So that's something that does have value. So hopefully we get to a point where the last week of the season we're talking about like, hey, the Mariners have a good shot to win the four seed, but they've already clenched. So how did they handle that? That's the ideal scenario because you don't want to. be waiting around for Baltimore and Toronto to kind of, you know, do their battling. Plus side, again, I keep bringing this up.

Nobody else seems to bring it up. So I'll keep bringing it up. You do hold the tiebreaker off of both of those teams. So in theory, you basically have an additional game lead on each of them. So right now, I mean, you're technically, you're only one and a half up on or two up on Toronto. You're only three. And you're three and a half up on Baltimore.

you're really four and a half up on Baltimore, just because you own those tiebreakers. You know, when you look at the schedules here for all these teams, the clearest path to winning a 10 game, you know, to rattling off a 10 game win streak is Seattle. That belongs to Seattle. If any of these teams is going to go on a huge, massive win streak that changes, you know, the landscape of things here, it's Seattle. I could see a very, very likely, you know, thing here where Seattle runs away with the wild card one. Because, you know, the Rays and the Js and the Orioles and all these teams because they're all just kind of battling one another.

They're all kind of running in place, right? None of them is really pulling away. None of them is really rattling off a win streak. You know, the Rays will win one game against the Orioles. And the, or not the Orioles, but like the Orioles will win one game against the Jays. and the Jays will win one game against the Orioles. It's just a back and forth, back and forth. And ultimately, that's what you want as a Mariners fan.

You want a lot of just back and forth. You don't want one of those teams to dominate the series, really. Right. You just want a lot of like even matchups. And those teams are evenly matched. So I could definitely see that happening. Whereas with the Mariners, you know, after this Guardian series, after the Brave series, after the Padres series, it's smooth sailing from there.

Again, like I said, it's a layup. It's a layup. Yes. schedule-wise. We know how the Mariners will miss some layups every once in a while. Sure. But yeah, they're still in great shape. They can afford a bad series here or there because, again, they have this back-in schedule

and they have just everything about the schedule in general favors the Seattle Mariners. And the fact that they're in a great spot and they're two games clear of the last team in, everything lines up really well for Seattle. Indeed. Indeed. It really does. It's very exciting. And any sort of buffer that you can get that you can get yourself here over the next eight games against the, you know, in the final games against teams above 500, that's great. I mean, like if you can go through the next eight games and win like five or six of them, you're, you're so good. You're like, you're cruising at that point. At that point, I mean, you know, mathematically,

they haven't clenched, but I would say if they go like five and three or six and two over the next eight games, they're going to the playoffs. And even now, honestly, I think, I think it's pretty safe to say they're going to the playoffs. It would take a massive collapse. And yes, it is the Seattle Barroners. We've watched the Seattle Barriers over 20 years and they've broken our hearts so much. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. I get that. I get that. But this team is, is pretty good. And I just, I, even if, I mean, right now, Colby, remind the folks what is your magic number in terms of win total for the meritors to get in 88 for me so they have to go they have to win 15 of their next 31 games that's not even 500

that's below that's one game below 500 over the next 31 games with all most of those games coming against the bottom of the barrel for for major league baseball in the american league i like the meritor's chances quite a bit yeah i i think you know, 88 gets them in and I think 90 gives them a very good chance to host. There's not a huge difference between being the between being the four and the five,

you want to be the four so that you can host between being the five and six. You'd probably rather be the six because then you get to go to the AL Central winner as opposed to going to either Tampa or as opposed to going to either Tampa or or Toronto in that scenario. So yeah, you want to be the four, you want to be the six.

The Mariners probably have the best shot to be the four right now. You know, yes, I know that being the four means you probably host Tampa or Toronto, but the key word there is host. You want to playoff games at Team Mobile Park for the first time in 20 years? You got to be the four. Yeah. And then you take your chances from there. Yeah.

And yeah, if you're the four, you're probably hosting Toronto. Toronto or Tampa, I would say. I think that would be the most likely two teams. Maybe Baltimore sneaks in there. Of the three teams, I'm a little scared of Baltimore. They played some really good ball right now. They just kind of seem like a team of destiny. So I don't know.

I've seen the Mariners against the Rays. I've seen the Mariners against the Blue Jays. Obviously, it didn't go so well against the Rays earlier this season. But that was a very different Mariners team at that time. I think we can all agree. So, and I think on paper, the Mariners match up very nicely with the race. A lot of one-run games, too, if I'm remembering correctly. So a lot of close games, I should say.

So, yeah, we'll see how that goes. But, I mean, it's hard not to be, I mean, just overly optimistic about the Mariners' chances. I can't even say cautiously optimistic because, like, if you tell me something's got a 96% chance of happening, I mean, how do you not like those odds? So the Mariners are in great position. And if they go up here against Cleveland, Chicago, Atlanta, and then San Diego, I think is how it shakes out. They got, I think it's only two against San Diego,

three against everybody else. So if they go, you know, seven and four over their next 11, it's done. Like, it's a wrap. Yeah, we'll still, you know, we'll still wait for the official like before we celebrate on the podcast or anything like that. But yeah, I mean, at that stage, it's unless the Mariners do something like lose like eight of nine or something somewhere down the stretch, it's almost impossible to fathom that they're not going to make the playoffs. And they're playing really good ball right now. So as weird as it sounds, you know, after the All-Star break, they struggled a little bit.

They've dropped some bad series. and yet they still have like the fourth best record in baseball since the All-Star break. There you go. They're just a good team. Just got to accept it. They have the best record in the American League over the last 60 games. Yep. And all baseball, actually, I think.

Oh, all baseball, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So again, they're a good team. They're a good team. They're a frustrating team. They're not a perfect team. They're not a great team.

They're a good team. And they have the pitching to kind of avoid that, that long losing streak that would kind of derail their chances. So, yeah, Mariners are in great. great position and enjoy the ride. It's going to be fun. And, uh, you know, we'll celebrate together when they do clinch. It'll be awesome. It will be. All right, that's going to do it for our show today. Thank you so much for joining us here on the Lockdown Mariners podcast. For Colby Patneode, I'm Tad Gonzalez. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L0 underscore Mariners. You can follow inside the

Mariners. You can follow me at Dan Gonzalez's D-A-N-Z-L-Z and Colby at C-P-E-E-E-N-Z-L-L-B-E-E-C-P-E-E-E-E-1. You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode. And thank you again for making us your first listen of the day. Now for your second listen, go check out the Ultimate Pro Football Preview 2022, an eight episode extravaganza to get you ready for the NFL season. The local team experts of the Locked-on podcast network plus a betting Nagel from Lee Sterling of Lockedon bets, all combining into one ultimate NFL preview. Search for Ultimate Pro Football Preview 2022 on your Odyssey app, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcast.

And with that, have yourself a beautiful. baseball weekend and we'll see you on Monday peace