Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Mariners Mailbag: What Does Shohei Ohtani Want and What Will He Get?

Episode Date: October 16, 2023

Colby and Ty are back for a new week of Locked On Mariners, starting as always with Mailbag Monday. The duo answer a plethora of M's questions from listeners, including if the team will say 'no' to the pitching market, what Shohei Ohtani wants out of his impending free agency, what an ideal return in a Logan Gilbert trade would look like, and much more.Follow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @danegnzlz | @CPat11Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!Jase MedicalSave more than $360 by getting these lifesaving antibiotics with Jase Medical plus an additional $20 off by using code LOCKEDON at checkout on jasemedical.com.  eBay MotorsKeep your ride-or-die alive at ebay.com/motors. eBay Guaranteed Fit only available to US customers. Eligible items only. Exclusions apply.GametimeDownload the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONMLB for $20 off your first purchase.FanDuelMake Every Moment More.Make Every Moment More. Right now, NEW customers can bet FIVE DOLLARS and get TWO HUNDRED in BONUS BETS - GUARANTEED. Visit FanDuel.com/LOCKEDON to get started.SleeperDownload the Sleeper app and use promo code LOCKEDON and you'll get up to a $100 match on your first deposit. Terms and conditions apply. See Sleeper’s Terms of Use for details. Currently operational in over 30 states. Check out Sleeper today!FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

What if the Mariners just say no to the pitching market? What would be the ideal return of Seattle traded Logan Gilbert? And what is Tyler Locklear's ceiling? I'll answer that and more here on Mailbag Monday. Colby hit it. You are Locked on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked on podcast network.

Your team every day. Ahoy, sailors. It is Monday, October 16th, 2023. This is Tadang Azales and Colby Patnaud for the Locked on Mariner's podcast. brought to you by GameTime. Download the GameTime app, create an account, and use promo code locked on MLB, $20 off your first purchase. Last minute ticket's lowest price guaranteed. Thank you so much for making us your first. Listen, subscribe, like, and turn on alerts if you're watching on YouTube or subscribe and leave a five-star review on your preferred podcast platform,

if you like what you hear. And if you're part of the crew and rock with us every single day, let us send us in the comments below. And if you want to hear from us even more, please consider signing up for our Patreon. You can now get a free seven-day trial to check out the show. The link as well as our social accounts is in the description of this episode. This is Mailbag Monday, the show where we answer your Mariners questions. And we're going to start here with D. Panky wants to know if the Poto came out this week and said they weren't going to waste one second on possibly signing a pitcher this off season. How upset would you be given how much it would limit their ability to approve the team? Would it almost be as bad as the 54% comment?

Colby, thoughts? Not familiar with the 54% comment. Talking about Gino Smith's early down success rate yesterday. Oh, yeah, he was bad. They should probably bench him. But yeah, not, first of all, announcing what you plan to do in the offseason is dumb, like, in terms of like, we're not interested in pitching or we're not interested in first base. That's, that's dumb. But, no, if that were the case.

I think that would be a pretty big mistake considering that right now, like your backup in case one of your pitchers gets hurt, which seems pretty plausible, is Marco Gonzalez, who is also hurt and not very good. And the backup to him is Emerson Hancock, who is also hurt and not very good. So, yeah, it's something that you have to address. You don't necessarily have to go out and get a mid-rotation guy. You don't have to go get a sunny gray or anything like that.

But you do need, you know, better options than Emerson Hancock coming off of an injury or Taylor Dullard coming off of an injury or even Tommy Malone or Darren McCack. And you should go find somebody who's at least as good as Marco, you know, obviously preferably somebody who has AAA options. You want somebody better than flexing. So, yeah, you should go out. You should go get somebody. It's not always the easiest thing to find. pitching is so valuable that typically if, you know, you want to stash a guy as your number six starter, he's probably good enough to be the number five in most other rotations. So I have to get

a little creative with it. You know, you have to look for the right opportunities. But yeah, it is something they should consider. It's something they should go out and do if they can. And that doesn't mean they shouldn't go out and get, you know, a sunny gray or somebody like that if the market is right. So I think you have to look at all avenues to make your team better, even, you know, strengthening a strength is still getting better. And if that's the way forward that you can go and get better, then that's what you do. So, you know, as much as we all want to add to the offense, preventing runs is also a way to improve your team. So if that's the path you go, you go that way.

But just outright rejecting the idea that you're going to go after any pitching and you're not going to waste time on it, quote unquote, that would be pretty foolish. Right. Yeah. it would be incredibly silly to completely just outright say that you're closing yourself off from an avenue to make your team better, especially closing yourself off of the strength of the free agent market this winter. Also, you know, the thing that we need to keep in mind here, same thing that applied to last off season is that most pitchers, and you kind of touched upon this,

aren't going to sign with you to be a break glass in case of emergency type of pitcher for you. especially if you're talking about guys that are number fours, number fives. Like if they're not just fringe major leaguers, they're probably not going to sign with you to fulfill that role. So if you're going to go after, you know, a guy like that, if you're going to go after a number three, number four, it's probably either after you trade, you know, Bryce Miller or Brian Wu or you basically promise those, you know,

that guy that you're signing, like, we are going to open up a spot in the rotation for you. you don't have to worry about that. So, yeah, but yeah, a lot of lovers have to be pulled here in order for all of that to come together. And obviously there are different ways that they can attack it, but they absolutely should not close themselves off from that avenue. Sure. If you're looking for a name in particular for like the Marco type pitcher who might be willing to, you know, be stashed in the bullpen for a little while. Maybe somebody like Brad Keller of the Royals.

but yeah it's not the easiest thing to find but it doesn't matter you have to find a way to improve your pitching depth at the very least and maybe that means again signing Sunny Gray and pushing Brian Wu to the bullpen or whatever you just you have to you have to be deeper this year yeah yeah all right next question here comes from Max who do you think can get us the better bat Miller or Wu

of course it depends on the team and who they like but if you had to guess who has more value on the trade market. Colby? I would say probably Miller. He's a little bit more of a finished product. He has more track record of pitching in professional baseball, hasn't had to deal with the injuries that Wu has in college or in the pros. He's a little more stretched out.

There's really no reason to think that Bryce Miller can't go 170, 180 innings next year, whereas Wu probably want to try and cap them. 130, 140. But yeah, I think it's Miller. I think, you know, the upside is probably not quite as high as Wu, but the floor is higher. I think Miller is a number three. I think, you know, I think his ceiling is probably a high-end three.

I don't know if there's a lot he can do to get to a number two. For Wu, it's, it's, you know, the command's a little bit better. The fastball is just as valuable. It's just, I like the slider a little bit more. So we'll see. And like the question mentioned, beauty is in the eye of the beholder, always. But, you know, in a vacuum, like, who would I prefer if I was trying to get one of these two guys? I would go after Miller.

But, again, it really is a toss up. I would agree. But, yeah, it very much is dependent on the team. There's probably going to be some teams out there that believe in Brian Wu as a starter more long term than the Miller. And maybe they view Miller as a reliever down the road. And there's going to be some teams that are completely turned off of the idea of, of Wu considering his injury history. So, well, maybe not completely,

but they're not going to be as excited about him and his long-term potential as maybe Bryce Miller. So, yeah, again, it depends on the team. In terms of teams that they can appeal to, I mean, the raised, guardians, the Cardinals, etc., etc., etc., everyone's looking for young, controllable major league starting pitching, especially guys that are established at the major league level at this point, like Wu and Miller, I would say, are.

All right, we've got a few more questions coming up here in just a moment. But first, a reminder of this episode of the Lockdown Marys podcast is brought to you by GameTime. Buying tickets to your favorite events shouldn't be stressful. Game time is a fast and easy way to buy tickets for all the sports, music, comedy, and theater near you. And with killer deals on last minute tickets and their best price guarantee, you can stop stressing over the tickets and start getting hype for the fun you'll have. So forget planning months in advance. Game Time has deals on tickets right up to the day of the day of the. event. Snag the tickets without the stress with Game Time. Download the GameTime app. Create an

account and use promo code Locked On MLB for $20.00 apply. Again, create an account and redeem promo code Locked on MLB for $20 off. Download game time today. Last minute tickets, lowest price guaranteed. And you're listening to the Lockdown Merritt's podcast. Thank you again for making us your first listen here on Mailbag Monday. Let's get back into these questions here. We got one from chowder-headed yokel who wants to know is there a mariner prospect each of you think has the potential to make the opening day roster for 2024 i mean prolander borougha that's about it and i mean he's technically a prospect but if you're talking about someone that hasn't played at all at the major league level maybe tyler locklear but probably no one

unless the the mariner's trade for a prospect that hasn't played at the major league level that they think is on the doorstep. Yeah. If you're talking about somebody who still has prospect status, Baroa is probably the only guy you should really count on. You know, and I'm not sure of Canzon has graduated for that. But yeah, probably not a lot of them.

You were talking about guys who haven't made their major league debut yet. Definitely not Locklear. I think the only one that you could possibly see making this club that's in the organization right now, Maybe Ryan Bliss, but even that seems a bit far-fetched. So nope, I don't think there's anybody that's going to make the opening day roster who is, you know, going to be making their major league debut. And, you know, unless they acquire somebody and the Mariners are going to acquire people and they're probably going to acquire some prospects in a deal. Maybe they find a bullpen arm they really like and they stick them in the bullpen.

Maybe they take somebody in the rule five. And he just happens to make the team. They typically always do. Right. They don't always make the team. But yeah, so I would say, you know, in terms of like pure prospect, never been to the big leagues. I think your only shot is Ryan Bliss. I think in terms of like technically still a prospect, it's Prelonder Broa.

Yeah, who's going to do that. So, yeah, the big like wave of fresh young prospects, you know, impact guys making their major league debut, it probably comes no or no sooner than, you know, next summer. when we could talk about Locklear Bliss. Maybe Cole Young, probably not, but maybe, you know, Jonathan Clase, guys like that. Yeah, Cole Young's probably more of an August-September thing. Yeah. But yeah. Yeah, you're going to have another wave of guys coming up.

It's just not going to be by opening day. Again, like maybe Locklear, but I doubt it. It's going to be Baroa. And then if they add someone via trade or on the free agent market, maybe like an older guy who's technically a prospect like he hasn't played at the major league level like maybe that guy makes his debut like another Dillamore situation but

Austin Chin. Yeah, there you go. Austin Shen potentially. All right. Next question here comes from Bryce. Bryce wants to know, can you give us your analysis of the Otani market generally? Things like fit, desire to win and of course money. Colby.

Our opportunity to put Otani in the thumbnail. Do you know we're fully going to take advantage of? I wonder. why you picked that question and then I immediately knew. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Sure. So here's the deal with the Otani market. Nobody knows anything.

So they say, oh, Atani's number one priority is the West Coast. His number one priority is to win. His number one priority is, you know, control over his career, blah, blah,

blah, all that stuff. They're guessing. They're guessing. They don't know. We don't know. But, you know,

kind of just taking educated guesses at things. We can say that I think he probably would really like win. I think that's probably pretty high on his list. I think the ability to kind of control his own career is going to be very high on his list. So things like opt-outs and, and, you know, high, uh, you know, high, uh, buyout clauses and all that stuff. And, and, you know, kind of controlling when I get to pitch and all that stuff, um, is going to be important to him. So I think he's going to want some control over his career. I think winning is going to be, you know, pretty important. And honestly, I think those are pretty much the only two. I don't think.

he's, you know, just ignoring every team that's not on the West Coast. I don't think that's a thing. And I also don't think that necessarily, though, that it's just whoever writes him the biggest check is going to get him. That'll certainly play a big role in it, obviously. But I do think that you can kind of, you can kind of maneuver around teams offering bigger, you know, guarantees by giving Otani more control, which is opt-outs, you know, and maybe incentives on on pitching and all that stuff.

So I think there's room to get creative here. I think there's room to, you know, really just kind of let Otani create his own contract essentially, you know, in terms of length and AV and all that stuff, without you having to go, like here's 12 and 600 to get them interested.

So we'll see. In terms of teams, I still think this is the Dodgers. This is the Dodgers fight to lose. They have plenty of money left. They haven't really spent big the last couple of off seasons. You know, Otani likes the area generally of Southern California. That team can definitely win.

And they're missing a piece clearly because they haven't, you know, they won one World Series and it was the COVID shortened year. So, yeah, I think the Dodgers, it's probably their race to lose. I think the Giants are going to be pretty interested in him. I think the Mariners are going to be, you know, on the fringes of it. I think they want to be in the middle of it. I just don't know if Otani's really open to that or not. And that's where maybe Seattle can kind of get their foot in the door by being the most willing to, you know, offer opt-outs and, you know, incentives for pitching and stuff like that.

But, yeah, I think, you know, it's probably control over his career deciding where he gets to play and how. long he's going to play there and all that stuff. And then winning are probably the two most important things. And then just like overall guaranteed money is probably third. That would just be my guess, though. Right, right. Yeah, I think the only guarantee we can really make is that this is going to be one of, if not the most unique contracts ever handed out in the history of baseball.

And that's whether it's with a layup of a team like the Dodgers or maybe one of the weirder ones like the Giants or the Mariners or maybe someone on the East Coast that we're not really expecting. Yeah, it's going to be high in incentives based on the, you know, innings pitch down the road. There's going to be a lot of incentives incentives that make it, you know, 60 to 65 to maybe even $70 million a year because obviously the injury changes a lot. I think it also might depend on who believes in him pitching long term the most.

And by believe, I mean, in terms of game. guaranteed money, like how much guaranteed money is a team willing to kick in for Otani the pitcher, not just Otani the hitter. Because Otani the hitter is probably a $35 to $40 million player. But Otani the pitch, when you add that factor in as well. I mean, that goes to astronomical numbers we've never seen before. So what does that end up looking like? And like you said, the opt outs. I think there's going to be opt outs after year two, year three, year four, etc.

like he's going to want to have pretty much full control over his career and over his market and when he wants to, you know, potentially reset his market and look at other options. You know, I don't think that he wants to get in another situation where he's just stuck like he was in Anaheim. Yeah. I do think that maybe Otani might be open to the idea of a one-year contract just to, and it'd still be like one year $50 million. bucks but like one year kind of test out a market CV likes it knowing he's not going to pitch and then he can go on the market next year you know

kind of having a feel for another team that maybe he likes or you know he can just cross that team off didn't work out and I'm going to go back out where his market will still be vast and he'll be able to pitch right away so you know it's if he signed a one year deal with like say

the Giants for $45 million or whatever he could still go out the next year, you know, next winter and still get 10 years, $500 million or whatever or in those like those contracts with the opt-outs and all that stuff, they'll still be there. So I think it's highly unlikely he would do it. But I do wonder maybe he's willing to consider just because he can't pitch. And, you know, it's a unique situation where it's like this isn't going to be his last shot to make the mega contract.

So. Yeah. Maybe it's an opt-out after you're wanting. right he doesn't wait the two years but yeah he's not going to pitch until 2025 so how are teams going to feel about that even a team like the Dodgers who has just a lot of money to blow like

and probably shouldn't really care at the end of the day just get Otani but they're probably going to even have like a little bit of hesitation in terms of the guaranteed money that they kick towards them especially when we're talking about year like years four through

seven on a long term deal or years four through 10 or however long the deal is. Yeah. I just think like if you're Otani, like if you're a little hesitant about maybe like going out to the East Coast or whatever, why not sign a one year deal with the Mets for like $45 million and see if you like living over there. If you like dealing with that media and all that stuff and then you have a better idea. And maybe if you are kind of like if he is on the fence about like leaving the West Coast or whatever, maybe this is a good chance for him to go and without tying himself down too long. Yeah. Or maybe be a hired gun and ring chase, right?

Like go to the, go to the Braves, right? Sure. Yeah. It's definitely possible. We'll see what Otani wants to do, but basically he gets to, he gets to do whatever he wants.

You know, he gets to write his own contract essentially. So, but yeah, I do think, you know, he'll go and tell a team, like,

I want to play for you and, you know, it's up to them to make it happen. Like, yeah. So, you know, I think that the control over your career is,

is probably the number. one thing that Otani cares about. I think winning's probably number two and those kind of go hand in hand. And then I think like just overall guaranteed money is probably third. But I'm guessing. Yeah, I think the only way that guaranteed

money really has a big impact on this is with regards to the pitching side of things. If it goes beyond that 40 plus million dollar mark. All right. Next question here comes from pitchfork for kids. Generally fans seem to prefer a

or woo trade over dealing Logan Gilbert. But let's say you wake up one morning in the offseason to news the M's trade of Gilbert, who are the top three guys you hope headline the return? It's not really about like top three guys specifically. I mean, like I want, you know, a borderline star of a bat in return or I want, you know, a four win player and maybe a two win player and, you know, an interesting arm, you know, something like that. Is there anyone specifically you think about with Gilbert Colby?

Or is that what I said just kind of generally what you would like to see in a return for Gilbert? Yeah, it's tough to say because starting pitching, particularly young, controllable and cheap starting pitching is the most valuable commodity in the game. Everybody wants it. Everybody needs more of it. There isn't a team out there that would look at Logan Gilbert and be like, nah, we don't really need them. even if you're a few years away, he's going to be there in a few years, even if you're trying to win the World Series next year,

he can definitely help you with that. So his market would be vast. And it's just kind of hard to pinpoint one, you know, single player like what would I hope to see? Like, yeah, Ronald Acuna Jr. Obviously,

that's not going to happen. But like, you know, there are some factors that, you know, mitigate this. But I do think that like, like we talked about this summer,

like, if you're getting like, Randy a Rosarena, and, you know, a couple of starters, basically. Or once, like if it's a Rosarena, Harold Ramirez, and, you know, Savali or somebody like that, then, then yeah, then you're okay with that. But I think it's got to be that. Like, I just don't think that you're trading Logan Gilbert for like the Logan Gilbert equivalent of bats.

I don't know who that is, first of all. But I don't think that's good because I think you're still losing value. you're trading a pitcher for a non-pitcher, and that's typically not the way value works. You want a borderline starve about it. If you're just doing like essentially a one for one, and there's probably other pieces that are getting involved there. But like if we're just looking at in a vacuum, like what's the big piece that you're

getting back? It's probably a borderline established MLB star. And I don't know if that got exists in terms of like making sense for a Gilbert trade. no i mean like adly rutchman but that doesn't even make sense because you have cow raleigh so like i don't i don't need like obviously i would love adly rushman in a vacuum but like i'm not you know bending over backwards to trade logan gilbert for him because i

already have cal raleigh like adleys obviously better than cal but right and well sure about that no cow was pretty good this year god was pretty good atley kind of took step back yeah he did I don't know. You did.

You did. But either way, like, you're not in like, there's no, there's no single player on like the Cardinals, who we know really like Logan Gilbert. You're not trading Logan Gilbert for Nolan Gorman. That's not, no. Like Nolan Gorman and Lars Neupar and Tyler O'Neill or Alec Burleson, something like that, then maybe.

But, like, those are two good players and, you know, an interesting young guy instead of, you know, one star. And so I think that's what it would take. So there's a reason that we talk about Miller and Wu a lot. There's just a few more possibilities when you're trading guys like that to get in return. That makes sense than it is when you're trading a guy who, you know, probably enters next year as a Dark Horse Sy Young Award candidate. Yeah, like he's arguably a top 15 pitcher in the entire league.

Yeah. And at his worst, he's probably like a top 30 pitcher in the league. Like he's at his worst he's a number three like yeah i think he's a number two right now and i still think there's even a little bit more uh in the tank so yeah it's tough to you know find a one for one that makes a lot of sense for seattle yeah and i and i get what divish said on you know ben minari show a few days ago about you know they might eventually trade him once he starts to get more expensive and they don't you know and if they don't think that they can extend him all that but you don't need to push that envelope right now.

He's still incredibly cheap. He's still one of the best values in all the baseball right now, quite frankly. Like, you don't need to rush that if there isn't an ideal deal out there for you. And if you even wait two more years and you trade him with two years left to club control, you're still going to get tremendous return. Yeah, yeah, 100%. There's just, there's no reason to trade them unless you're getting absolutely blown away. And that probably means you're getting a young star back and just go find that guy that

would be traded for Logan Gilbert. It's tough to do. Agreed. Agreed. All right. We got a couple more questions here on Mailbag Monday. But first, a reminder of this episode of the Lockdown Marys podcast is brought to you by Fandul. October baseball is back, folks. And you can make your postseason debut with Fandul, America's number one sportsbook. Join Fandul today and you'll get started with $200 in bonus bets guaranteed when you place your first $5 bet. Just visit Fanduel.com slash locked on. That's L-C-K-D-O-N to create your new account.

and you can get on on the action from the first pitch until the final out. Bet on everything from strikeouts to home runs to who will win the game. And if you don't want to wait the whole game to get a win, predict what will happen in the next that bat with quick bets. So head on over to fandwell.com slash locked on right now. Step up to the plate this postseason with $200 in bonus bets guaranteed. Make every moment more with Fandul official sports betting partner of Major League Baseball. And you're listening to the Lockdown Merritt podcast.

Thank you again for making us your first listen here on Mailbag Monday. Got a couple more questions to go over here. We're going to check in with Randy who wants to know. Are there any similarities to what Tyler Locklear can become and what Christian Walker is for the Diamondbacks? Is that a fair player comp or no? Colby. It's awfully optimistic.

I think that's the absolute ceiling, right? Yeah, because Walker's the guy who hits, for a high average, takes walks, hits 35 home runs, and is a really good first baseman defensively. Like that's shooting the moon for Locklear. The thing with Locklear right now is I don't know if anybody has a great feel for his power. I think most agree that it's at least average, which is, you know, 20, 25 home runs, give or take. But there is some room for growth there.

And like there are some who are going to think that he could hit 30, 35 home runs. and that would be like 60 grade power. So I think, you know, and that kind of depends. Can he get there without sacrificing too much of the hit tool? I think, you know, kind of a fair comp for Locklear is, you know, a little bit more athletic Thai France. It's, you know, a guy who probably is going to hit 260 to 280, he's probably going to hit 20 to 25 home runs.

He'll draw walks. He'll have an above league average on base and, you know, he'll play good solid defense at first. Um, but you know, I, I, I think like the very ceiling is two 80, 30 home runs, something like that, above average defense. That's pretty much what Walker gives you. But again, that that's ceiling. Like that is the absolute most you ever hope for. I know what Jerry likes to throw around his little Paul Goldschmidt comp.

That's, that's a joke. Paul Goldschmidt is, you know, one of the five best first baseman of his era. and that's an era that includes like Albert Pujols and, you know, so in Miguel. Joey Votto. Yeah, Joey Votto. So, yeah, let's, let's cool it there. But Walker. Also, Goldie was like stealing like 20 to 25 bags.

Like, Locklear ain't doing that. But yeah. I think his ceiling is, you know, he's reasonable. Sealing, attainable ceiling is, is probably, you know, slightly better Thai France, which is pretty good. And I'm talking, you know, good tie France. Not what we saw the last 18 months, Thai France. His timing mechanism is so weird at the plate. Have you seen it?

It's like his hands are really busy. Locklear. Locklear. Yeah. And yet it works. So that's the only rule. So yeah. No, I like Locklear a prospect.

I would be pretty bummed if the Mariners traded him. But also like, whatever. What do they get back? Yeah, what do they get back? That's what's ultimately most important here. Don't hug those prospects. don't pocket that money. No.

But I like, Locklear's the guy who's grown on me since they drafted him from I was so unsure about the bat speed. And now, you know,

based on what I've read and what I'm hearing from other people, like bat speed's not really an issue and there's a real good feel for hitting. So even if he only hits 20 home runs,

he's probably going to hit 250 to 280 somewhere in that range. Yeah, he might hit 35 doubles. Yeah, 35 doubles above average defense. Like, yeah. Yeah.

So, yeah, I think he'll be a good player. Christian Walker, I mean, Christian Walker is one of the better first baseman in baseball right now. He's really underrated. Yeah, he's really, really good. And he's really coming to his own, especially over the last couple of years. It's been a big reason for the Diamondback success this year.

So, yeah. All right. Last question of the day comes from Good Vives Only. Which young M's outfielder would you pick breakout in 2024 with 500 plus at bats, three plus war, and a 110 plus WRC plus. The options, Good Vives Only gives us. It's Kellnick, Canzone, Marlowe, Tramel, or Klase. I mean, it has to be here at Kelnick.

He's basically already done it. Yeah, essentially. Like, he was pretty much on pace to do that. Yeah. I mean, he finished at like 108 WRC plus or something like that. Yeah. You know, he was a two-win player and two-thirds of a season. So, like, we can all do the math on that one, right?

If he plays a full season, he's a three-win player. So it's basically just described who Jared Kelnick was. you know, this year. So definitely, yeah. Yeah, definitely Kelleck. It's not Klausay. Klausi is going to strike out way too much to have much of a shot to see the big leagues this year or well next year. Canzone, I haven't seen anything from Kanzone to make me think that he's, you know, worthy of 500 played appearances. And yeah, Marlowe, no, same thing.

And Tremel, I'd be shocked if he's in this organization on opening day. Yeah, Kanzone, I just. just I don't think he's going to get to 500 at bats 500 plate appearances either really like I I think he's a platoon bat and I think the Mariners recognize that as well yeah just hard to get to three wins when you only get like 400 plate appearances you have to be really good um I think can zone can be 110 WRC plus bat but obviously almost exclusively against right-handed pitching so yeah and then you have to war also factors in defense and base running all that stuff it's Kelnick.

Like Kelnick is the guy. I think, you know, honestly, that's a pretty reasonable expectation for him next year is to be, you know, 110, play 140 games, three win,

just be, you know, part of the, part of the lineup. Somebody who hits six, seven, eight, nine, somewhere in that range and, you know,

provide some pop, provide some on base skills. And, and, you know, we'll see what he can do. It really is a bummer that, that Kelnick,

uh, self injured himself. Um, because like it was it just feels like we don't quite have all the information we needed but I think we did see enough to look at Calnick and go like okay there there's at least an an average everyday big leaguer that we have and so you know I'm not saying you should just give him right field you know and that should just be his and you shouldn't challenge him on it I don't think he's earned that but I do think that he goes into this winter as you know

pretty strongly written in Penn as one of your three starting outfielders for next year. You just have to protect yourself against it. And it is possible they trade him. Like he's definitely not untouchable. But yeah, I feel okay about Kelnick where he's going. I certainly feel better about him than I do Marlowe, Canzon,

and, uh, you know, Clauce and Tramel. So, yeah, I think the easy answer and, and the correct one is,

is Kelnick. Yeah. Maybe you bring in like a righty to part time platoon with him, not all the time. Like let him hit against some lefties, but maybe not all lefties. just do it based off of, you know, matchups. It's why it would be

ideal for that player that you bring in to also be good enough against D-Rides that you could just deach him, you know, and just kind of do that. So, you know, maybe an Adam Duval type, somebody like that. Agreed. Agreed. All right, that's going to do it for our show. Thank you so much for joining us here on the Lockdown

Mariners podcast. Colby Patnode. I'm Tadangazales. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L-O-U-U-N-S-L-Z. You can follow me at Dan G-G-N-Z-L-Z. and Colby at C-P-Ead-11. That's C-P-A-T-1-1. You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode, and thank you again for making us your first listen.

Have yourself a beautiful baseball day. We'll see you next time. Peace.