Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Mariners Prospect and Draft Deep Dive With Aram Leighton

Episode Date: May 30, 2025

Ty and Colby are joined by Just Baseball co-founder Aram Leighton to discuss a wide range of Mariners prospects and the upcoming draft.Check out our Patreon!Follow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @TyDaneGonzalez | @CPat11Follow the show on Bluesky: @lockedonmariners | @tdg | @mlbcolbySupport Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!Wonderful PistachiosGet snackin' and get crackin' with the snack that packs a protein punch. Visit WonderfulPistachios.com to learn more! Supply HouseJoin the TradeMaster program today at SupplyHouse.com/TM and start ordering plumbing, HVAC, and electrical supplies with just a few clicks. Plus, use promo code S-H-5 for 5% off your first order. That’s SupplyHouse.com! Monarch MoneyTake control of your finances with Monarch Money. Use code LOCKEDONMLB at monarchmoney.com for 50% off your first year. FanDuelRight now, new customers can get TWO HUNDRED DOLLARS in BONUS BETS when your first FIVE DOLLAR BET WINS! Download the app or head to FANDUEL.COM to get started. Bet with FanDuel—Official Partner of the NBA. FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Just how good is the Mariners farm system? We dive into a bunch of mariners prospects and talk about the draft with just baseball's arm latent coming up here on the Lockdown Marries podcast. You are Locked on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day. Ahoy, Sailors. It is Friday, May 30th, 2025.

This is Tedding Azales for the Lockdown Marys podcast. Part of the Lockdown Podcast network, your team every day. This episode is brought to you by Fandul. Right now, new customers can get $200 in bonus bets when your first $5 bet wins. And as always, if you want to hear from me and Colby even more and help support the show, you can check out our Patreon. All you have to do to check that out is click the link in the description of this episode. So we've got another really dope interview for you today. The draft is coming up in a little under two months for the M's.

It's going to be a big one. The Marys Farm System, as it currently stands, is in a really good place. Cole Young might get called up as soon as this afternoon. noon we'll see and we talked about all of it with one of the best in the biz arm laden of just baseball here's our chat with him we are now joined by the co-founder of just baseball media hosts of the call up an MLB prospect podcast and former host of both locked on marlins and locked on MLB prospects arm lateen thanks for taking the time and coming back to kind of you know your old stomping grounds oh i always love hopping on with with the locked on guys and excited to talk to you guys

because it's great times right now at the big league level. And farm system's been a pretty fun one to keep up with. Yeah, let's talk about at the very top of the farm system here to get the ball rolling. Cole Young and Harry Ford, a lot of talk about these two guys. They have been insane in the month of May down in Tacoma. With Cole Young, it's pretty easy for the mayor is to get him playing every single day. They have a wide open spot at second base. So whenever they deem him ready to get called up, they can make that happen pretty easily.

but with Harry Ford, that's a little bit of a different story, right? Because the mayors have one of the best players walking on the planet right now at Harry Ford's position. So I wanted to get your thoughts on just, you know, what Cole Young has done so far, what maybe your expectations are for him whenever he does get called up. Maybe that's as soon as this weekend. And then what do you think the mayor should do with Harry Ford? Yeah, the latter part of that question is much harder. So I'm excited to tackle that part.

But with Cole Young, man, he made a mechanical adjustment at the end, like the second half of last year that I think helped him in some ways, but also created some other blue zones where I think like the setup allowed him to see the ball earlier. And we saw the contact rates get better. But he dropped his hands maybe a little bit too low. And then he started to see him struggle with some stuff at the top. So now he kind of built on that adjustment. And this year the hands are a little bit higher. It seems like he's getting into his backside a little bit more easily in staying there. but also you could see the progression of what he's been working on.

And now you're seeing him handle the four seamers better, but also now just more consistently finding the barrel. And those contact rates have sustained, but you're also seeing him hit the ball harder now. And you're also seeing him hit the ball harder in the air now. And that's, I think, been the biggest surprise at points where it's like, you knew that he had that sneaky pop. And I understand that it's the PCL.

But at the end of the day, you're pulling 108 mile an hour home runs. Like if Cole Young has that in his bag, 100, 809 mile per hour homers and his advantage counts to let it eat. Like, you know he's going to grind out good at bats. You know he's going to put bat on ball. So I think you're seeing just the progression of the swing mechanics and development there really help. I think you're seeing a guy that is maybe trusting that he can slug a little bit more in that

environment and maybe that's going to give him the confidence to do it at the highest level. And I think you're just also seeing a 21-year-old hitter just continuing to develop and mature. And I think the most underrated part of this whole thing is he's actually playing a pretty good shortstop, too. Is he going to be a gold glover? No, but I think he could play a very solid big league shortstop as he continues to get reps there. I know they don't need that in the short term, but it is just another interesting wrinkle and also could allude to him playing a phenomenal second.

For sure. And then, yeah, so what do you do about Harry Ford? That's kind of the big one here. Yeah, it's funny because, you know, I think the obvious answer would be, oh, why don't you get him some outfield reps and see how things go there. But you even saw it with the Dodgers and Dalton rushing. like it sounds great in theory but it becomes a little bit more difficult you end up taken away from where he ultimately is going to be most valuable which is behind the dish it also is just more for a young player to worry about you also want them to continue to develop as a hitter and ford's a great athlete

so it becomes even more of a conversation but i think the mariners got told us told us what they want to do here which is continue to develop him as a catcher and kind of cross that bridge when you get there but we're seeing in major league baseball that these catching tans where you have your clear-cut top dog guy and then you have a secondary catcher that maybe is good enough to be a starter on a lot of other teams but you know you don't want to just give him up a la gabriel merino with the blue jays i think it's like a cautionary tail there though varsha was a fine acquisition like i i think you're seeing teams more willing to take on this this dueling catcher situation and it helps a lot more when you don't have the dh role absolutely clogged up but you know

this cow rally you just extended him it's a guy that you probably want to keep on the field keep healthy as he ages a little bit more, maybe fitting in a day or two off a week and then maybe four DHS. But I do think there might be a point in time once he settled in that you see him start to maybe get some reps at other spots, but it's tough because he's too short for first. So you look at that athleticism and say maybe it's still an outfield thing, but I think that would be once he's settled into the show. I think it's going to be hard, though, because you're not going to be able to get him consistent reps there. So it's going to be a little bit of deaching, a little bit of catching, and you hope he can play enough at the end of the year.

But I think you've got to be really encouraged with how much he's developed. defensively as a catcher this year. Of course, the bat. That's been really exciting. But how much he's developed there and then you figure it out at that point. Because if he didn't get better at catcher, you're looking at a guy that didn't really have a true position you felt great about. He's gotten better at catcher. At least that gives him more value in a vacuum as well. Something Colby and I talk about a lot is how the farm system, the top of it is going to shake out once the draft happens and once the deadline passes. And we've talked. We've talked talked a lot about like who might be the number one once that is all sudden done will it stay cold

emerson you know we've talked about felon and selestin and and johnny farmello and uh i want to ask you about those guys a little later on as well uh and then obviously they got the number three pick and we're going to talk about that a little later on as well so you know maybe that's the uh the next prospect uh or the next number one prospect of the farm system but uh in general just who has you the most excited in the marris farm right now it's funny because you look at the like statistical output and he may not be lighting it up like some of the other guys just yet. But I look at Colt Emerson and what he can ultimately be. And the more I've been able to just watch him, got to see him a bit in the Arizona Fall League,

then also just watching on video, watching the defense. And that's the big part to me that has stood out where it's like there was some question at points of will he stick it short. Now I think that question is gone. And not only is it gone, I think he's going to play a good short. I think you can play an above average defensive shortstop. So you pair that with the fact that he has really exciting power potential, that you're starting to see him flash. The challenge is he needs to elevate a little bit more.

There's just some little aspects of the swing that I think could just be a bit more patterned to be able to elevate more consistently. But he's another one of those guys that I think you very easily forget how young he is. He's also not 20 years old until, I mean, right after the All Star break. And when you see borderline plus contact rates, you see a guy that's putting above average EVs up. And then all of a sudden, you're seeing him flash it too, where he can hit the ball 110. And it's like, that didn't even look like it was high effort. As the rest of the things around his game start to shore up, I think he's just the player that you could see the most impact across the board. I love Alas Montes, but he's going to have to really slug to get to three war.

Colt Emerson could not even reach his peak outcome offensively and could get to three war pretty easily, I think, just even with the power, with the field of hit, and also just the defensive ability. But you also look at a Johnny Farmello coming off an ACL. TEL. Before the ACL, yeah, that was one of my favorite prospects in terms of who was climbing up quickly last year. And of course, there's going to be some rust to shake off. But you talk about another guy just from a war standpoint. He's going to defend at a premium spot. He can run. He's tapping into a little bit more juice than I think people would have expected and is not whiffing as much as people would have expected. I know it's been a little bit high early this year, but in general, the contact rates have been good. I think Emerson and Farmello are the two guys that

I look at and say they can impact the game in a lot of different ways. And that gets me the most excited. Colby, what do you got for him? Yeah, I want to go back to Cole Young real fast here. Basically, since he was drafted, we've kind of put the comp on him of Adam Frazier, you know, which wasn't super warmly received in Seattle since Adam Fraser had a not great stint here. But I'm wondering.

Also, as one of the best heads of marriage history. He does. He does. We salute slap in America. But I'm curious, you know, I know comps aren't easy or. necessarily that telling. But I'm just curious, like, with the power output we've seen from Cole Young now, with the elevated exit be lows while maintaining, you know, the contact rates and the low strikeout rates, do you think there's more in the tank there? Do you think this is potentially an all-star second

basement? Do you have a comp that you, that you like for Cole Young that yeah, that's a chance might like a little more than Adam Frazier? Yeah, and I get it because people, that's the thing is like people ask for comp sometimes. And I'm like, if you don't like the answer, don't ask for the comp, I'm sorry. Like, yeah, because a lot of times, honestly, it's, it's, it's really hard to compare players. And, and I think sometimes it becomes unfair to the player. Oftentimes it becomes unfair to the player.

So I salute the Adam Fraser comp because I'd rather be that way. You see the, the Jason Dominguez effect and all the unfair expectations that were placed on him where he's having a great start to his big league career. And it's not maybe getting the, the, uh, phrase it deserves because everyone's so fatigued by him, right? Because you were told he's going to be the next coming. but to more specifically answer that question, I don't know if he's going to have a peak like 2016 and 2017,

Daniel Murphy, but I think there's some similarities to Daniel Murphy there where if you look at like, I like to look at like individual season outputs and say like, could it look like that type of output? And when you look at what Murphy did aside from those two years where he was just on another planet, I think he led the league in OPS in 2016,

but you know, you had a 281, I think he'd walk a little bit more, but like 32, 449 slash line, 14 homers. Like maybe he goes a little bit more on the power side, but young would be a little bit more on the walk and plate discipline side. But I could see the offensive output being something similar to what you saw from Daniel Murphy in those like average years for him. But then a reminder, you have young who could plug in it short potentially and maybe give you a little bit more value beyond the stick. More from our conversation with Aram Layton and just a moment. But first a reminder, this episode of the Lockdown Airs podcast is brought to you by trade coffee. Whether you're gearing up for back-to-back meetings,

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at drinktrade.com slash locked on MLB. That's T-R-A-D-O-N-M-L-B for 50% off your one-month trial. drinktrade.com slash locked on MLB. You're listening to the Lockdown Mariners podcast. We're here with Aram Layton of Just Baseball Media talking about the Mariners Farm System. We'll also talk a little bit about the draft here in a second. But Arm, how is the Mariners Farm System viewed right now or how do you view it? Best in MLB, top five, top 10. Where do you kind of view them as a whole?

It's definitely in the tier one, I think. you know, there may be like the tier 1A where you can look at, you know, a brewer system that has just such ridiculous talent at the top. And, you know, you can maybe lean that way. But in terms of just, are they solidly in that tier one of major league baseball? I think with what they just did in the draft and what they continue to do in the draft. Yeah. I think that really solidified it. Because it also, the way I like to look at it too is well-roundedness of the system as well. And you look at the top where you welcome this issue, especially not even an issue, but you welcome this scenario. when you have what you've got going on at the big league level with the Mariners and the way that

they're able to develop arms. But it was very hitter heavy at the top. And I think that's why we saw them go two arms, or technically three, I guess you could say. But, you know, with Sanger and what he looks like he could be doing, like I think it's a rider, he has not been pitching that long. Like, I just solely isolated on pitching. And I think he's going to really blossom in this in this system. And then Ryan Sloan and what he's added there as well as a guy that, I mean, he could be a rocket ship of an arm. And that's a guy that's going to be in our top 100 prospect. update. But when you have those guys pairing with the top 100 guys like Cole Emerson, Las Montes, Cole Young, Felonine Celestin and Farmello as well, I think those are guys should be consensus.

Harry Ford is, you know, in and out depending on when you check in. And then you got a royal. Like the depth is really impressive as well. And I like the way that they balance the high floor guys with maybe some volatile high upside guys as well, like a Thai Pete. So that's why, you know, I don't know if there's like it's very abstract when you value these farm systems. But for me, I like to see the balance paired with, you know, the exciting talent. And I think the Mariners are as good of an example of that is just about any. You mentioned Ryan Sloan. What stands out the most to you about him?

Because, you know, the Mariners go overslaught on him last year. He's obviously incredibly well built already physically in the 30-ish endings that he's thrown so far down on Modesto. I've been really, really promising looking. So what just stands out to you about him the most? I think the polish in the delivery especially. he's 19 years old for the entirety of the season. He's 6.5, 220. It's not normally an archetype for a pitcher that's going to fill up the zone at a pretty

decent clip and just look so smooth with his delivery because I think you can just dream on even more, you know, velocity being there and just even more stuff. But you see how smooth that delivery is paired with that sweeper is disgusting. Like that is a pitch that is going to play for him. And he's flashed the splitter that I think is going to develop as he gets more comfortable with his feel for it, especially with such a smooth delivery. But I think it's what he already has going for, I'm paired with the very easy invisible projection that makes him so exciting.

I wanted to ask you about, I don't know, maybe, maybe I just, I'm overhyping this, but it does feel to me like Michael Arroyo is often overlooked in this farm system. He's overshadowed by the other very talented infielders. And right now he's currently being overshadowed by Las Montes, who is destroying, you know, high a pitching, but there's some upside there. He steals bags. He's hit for power the last couple of years. What do you see from Michael Oroyo?

And where do you kind of view him in terms of, is he a very good prospect? Is he just a good prospect? How are you looking at Michael Oroyo right now? He's definitely overshadowed. I think if he was in another farm system, definitely would get some more shine, no doubt about it with when you look at the offensive production that he's been able to piece together here. I would guess that I skew a little bit lower than the industry just because I have, it's another guy where you look at the bat and I'm always trying to look at it like,

basically when we go through our rankings and everything, the theory on it is like, okay, first six years of control at the big leagues, like how much war will they accumulate? So sometimes you'll have these guys that are putting up really good offensive numbers, but you will also have to factor in the defensive side and how hard it may be for him to, you know, provide that two to three war. And for a royal, he's going to really have to slug and he's going to really have to hit because he's limited to kind of an iffy, like fine, passable second base at best, probably. You can't move him to first.

He's five foot seven. And so that's a challenge there. But the approach has gotten better. He is hitting four seamers much better, which was a concern for me last year. He was not great against velocity. You know he can pulverize spin, which is always going to be something that bodes well for his long-term outlook. So, like, I think he's going to hit enough to be a solid big leaguer. It's just there's a lot of pressure.

on that bat. So usually those are the type of guys where maybe I'll be a little bit lower on them and later on them. But once he's doing it in double A in that Texas league, then I think you can really feel excited about what he can be. Just because, again, it's another guy that he's going to need to be an 800 OPS guy to probably be a regular at second base or at least in the high 700s. But he hits the ball hard, like you said.

He hits in the air consistently. And it's to all fields. It's framed-defying pop. And with the approach getting to where it's at, I think you have every reason to be excited about what he could be. Do you have any thoughts on what's been going on with Ty Pete? Because the numbers down in high A have been awful. He's striking out, I think, 36% of the time right now in Everett.

This is a guy that, you know, obviously he gets drafted basically in the first round alongside Cole Emerson and Johnny Farmello a couple of years ago. There was a lot of talk about like if one of these three guys that you drafted is going to be a superstar, it's going to be Ty Pete. and we just, he has really struggled so far in his professional career. Do you have any thoughts on what's been going on with him? Yeah, you know, he's had an interesting progression here too. And I think he's banged up right now with an ankle issue, which doesn't help.

But, you know, with him, you know, when he was drafted somewhere split on whether they liked him more on the mound or as a hitter and then, you know, I think more lean towards the hitting side. But then it was split on where is he going to play defensively? And he was playing on the dirt. And then he's playing in the outfield. And then he's also a switch. hitter who was adjusting his swing and kind of a serial tinker, which I think can be good for a young

hitter to especially first rounder, but also can cause you to chase your own tail in the early going of your professional career. And so I'm very happy that they moved him to the outfield. I think that's going to be better for him long term and allow his athleticism to shine through. But I also think this is a project here. This is a guy that I think skated on athleticism for all of his amateur career, which is how couldn't you? when you're that special of an athlete. But it may be a rough year until he kind of finds it. And maybe he's an AFL candidate to keep working on things.

But what I think is encouraging is you've seen some hot stretches too, where everything's timed up and it looks like, okay, maybe he's finding it. But then he just seems to lose it again. And I think the timing and consistency is a bit of a problem. And it just doesn't seem like you can find that operation just yet that works for him. And hopefully he can. But right now it just it seems like he's caught. in between. He's not seeing pitch as well and he's very aggressive. So it just, frankly,

just looks like he's a bit overmatched. Real quick, before we get into the draft, what do you make of Felon and Celestin right now? He can, I mean, it's all about health for him because I think with him, you can see what the potential is and just how toolsy he is, another guy that is 19 for the entirety of the season. A big focus for me going into this year when just keeping up with Celestin was, okay, can you keep chipping away at that ground ball rate? Because you know the EVs are good. You know that the approach is good. What's interesting is actually the EVs are down a bit this year,

but he is elevating a bit more. He is, I think, controlling his A.Bs a lot better. And I think it's just kind of this recalibration to a degree. And we saw last year, I mean, like he was getting some really good swings off and crushing balls, but then he was also giving away some ABs and rolling over a bit too much. So it seems like he's really, focused on putting good swings on baseballs and his development in that regard.

But, you know, I don't know if he's getting off his best swings all the time. I don't know if it's his A plus swing all the time, which I think is fine. He's striking out only 19% of the time. As a guy that's missed a lot of playing time over the first two professional seasons because of injuries. And I just, I don't think the Mariners would have much worry about Celestin eventually getting into that power again. So I think it's encouraging to see him just putting bat on ball consistently,

controlling his A.Bs, putting up consistent numbers, from both sides of the plate. And again, I think eventually you want to see him, let it eat a little bit more and start to see that those exit velocities jump a little bit more. But for now, I think it's encouraging just to see some consistency with his swing. Colby, anyone else you want to ask about before we get into the draft? No one specifically, but I do want to ask, putting you on the spot a little bit here, who's the sleeper in this farm system?

Who's the guy that people are going to be shocked at how good he is? I mean, I think everybody kind of has their own personal. favorite sleeper, but is there a guy that you look at the system? You go, like, watch out for this guy in two years. He could, he could really surprise, but you could just jump up and be a legit dude. It's funny because when I look at like sleepers oftentimes, it's usually the guys that are more ignored that I just feel so good about them just filling a big league role. Or like, maybe it's not a guy that's going to be a superstar, but I just think gets overlooked

in the respect that like, if I was getting him back in a trade or whatever, I'd be thrilled because I'm like, at least I got a four starter here, or five-star at the very least. And like, that's Michael Morales for me. Like what he did last year. And this is just a guy that I know he's not like totally, totally under the radar and he's never going to be a frontline starter. But this is a guy that I do think was pretty overlooked after he had a 590 RA in 2022 and

then repeated low A and out of four, five, you know, the next year. But then you see what he did last year. The stuff ticked up. The pitchability improved, even kind of tinkered with the breaking balls a little bit. And like, you saw him. really settle in into this guy that just looks like he can eat innings. And that's what I kind of like in that kind of archetype. So for him, again, I know it's not like this breakout superstar type,

but just a guy that I think is going to be able to kitchen sink his way to success. It's kind of similar. It's not as good of stuff, clearly, but it's like a Logan Evans light type of situation where you're getting the four seamer, the cutter, the sweeper, the change up, a curveball and a sinker that'll mix in as well. And I think you can just keep hitters off balance enough to be that, you know, innings eating back end start. Our conversation with RM Layton continues in just a moment, but first a reminder, this episode of the Lockdown Merritton podcast is brought to you by Supply House.

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You're listening to the Locktown Marys podcast again. we're here with arm latent of just baseball let's talk a little bit about the draft arm so the mayor is they they were gifted the number three pick and the lottery it was insane uh they also have the 35th pick uh cop round a selection they have the highest bonus pool in this draft of any team a lot of fun stuff that uh scott hunter and jerry depoto can get up to here in the next uh what six weeks six or seven weeks uh well we're we're getting really close to draft time uh just like come up. So I'm interested, you know, when you look at, I mean, first and foremost, they're going to have their pick of at least one of Jamie Arnold, Liam Doyle, Ivar Ackett, Ethan Holliday might also factor in

there, Seth Hernandez, Kyson, Weathers, et cetera. There's going to be a lot of choices there available to the Marriss. What would you like to see them do with where the farm system is at right now? What do you think would elevate this farm system the most? Well, it's funny. because you know there's you could look at it and say oh you know i'd i'd love to take a shot because the system's already so strong on like a high upside there's so many high upside high school bats in this draft but i look at a kyson witherspoon and that guy fits the mariners like a glove like it just it seems like exactly what they like to look for in an arm and i think it's a guy that you could fast track and i know that they've got plenty of arms at the big league level but i imagine that you're the assumption is you're not extending all of them

and keeping all of them. And before you know it, though, that control, it goes quick, right? So I think, and you see more and more on the MLB side,

like teams are going to go with the best player available. Also, because if they feel like Witherspoon's right up there with anybody, which, I mean, I think he very easily could be.

Great athlete on the mound. The four seamer is, is really impressive, averaging 96. The cutter is gross at like 88 to 90. And then another guy, though, he's got the slider,

the curveball, the change up, and he's kind of mixing and matching all of them. that's a guy that you feel like is a high probability big league arm. If you take him at three, you're probably going to save some money. And then that's where the Mariners cook is like in that later, you know, in that compensation round area where they can oversot somebody and, you know,

maybe buy somebody down there. And I think that's where you maybe go with the position player or another arm that they absolutely love. But, you know, I think in terms of what seems to fit real well, I like the way that Witherspoon would fit in with them. But in terms of just some other bats that I could, I could see. You know, I would imagine it would be hard for them to pass on a holiday if he was there.

But at the same time, he's going to be expensive. And when you have the biggest pool, you could, one school thought would be, okay, we have the biggest pool. Like, let's take advantage of the fact that maybe he wouldn't be there if he wasn't so expensive. Or you could say, well, we don't want to undercut our flexibility here. Let's go with a guy that may be a little bit cheaper. Like Eli Willits from the same area, putting up similar numbers against similar

competition can absolutely pass as a shortstop. Looks like he can stick there and play a good short as well. Like if he's cheaper, you could see them going that way as well. Or if they feel like there's arms that they really, really like in the later part of the first that they could buy down a little bit, I don't think it would be absolutely crazy to, you know, go underslot on maybe a college bat if you're able to. I don't think Arquette would get you much savings at this point. Like Case in Cunningham, I think he's one of the most underrated bats in this draft.

I think the Mariners have done a great job of identifying just good swings. and players that, I think, kind of fit that bill. And Cason Cunningham just has a great swing. You may not be as tooled up as some of the other guys and provide as much of the defensive value. But if you save money there and then you can get a guy that you have is one of the best times in your board with your later pick, you could see them going that route too.

Is there anyone that you like at number 35 to maybe buy down? That's where, like so our, and I'm excited to like dig deeper into all this because like you said, it's coming up close. It's like it's sneaking up on us. But our updated draft board will be coming out in a couple weeks. Tyra Jennings is an amazing job on that for us at just baseball. And, you know, it's funny because I think when you look at the arms at the top, it's very clear.

And then all of a sudden, it's kind of just based on the team's preferences. And you look at it pretty quickly, all of a sudden, arms that were overlooked end up being dominant. I mean, the Mariners are as good of example of that as anybody. They draft guys with five ERA, six ERAs in college. you know, end up turning these guys into really solid. Logan Evans. Yeah, exactly. But like I could see like a cruise schoolcraft.

He may not be there, but maybe they can buy him down. 6-8, 230 pound lefty that, you know, if you're confident in your, your ability to develop and get the most out of him, like you look at the arms in this system. I love the upside of a sane, and I absolutely love the upside of a Sloan. But I think a lefty with those characteristics could give you a rare level of upside there. cruise school craft is one that i do think fits pretty well into into that equation gulby you got any specific draft prospects you want to ask well yeah you mentioned the the left getting a lefty and how great that is most mok seemed to be landing on doyle or uh arnold or uh

uh is Anderson uh so i'm i'm curious you know what is it about whether it's funny that you brought up witherspoon i texted tie last night i was about to bring that up actually yeah i i I texted Ty last night and I was like, you know, I'm diving in a little bit more now. And I'm not so sure that Witherspoon isn't the best pitcher in this draft. So, I mean, what, what is it about Witherspoon specifically related to the Mariners that has you so intrigued by that possibility? And what do you think of the other, you know, three or four college arms that are also right there at the top of the pecking order? Yeah, you know, it just, and you guys would maybe know better than I on this in terms of just what fits kind of their preferences. but when I look at what the Mariners generally like to attack,

like I don't know if a funky Jamie Arnold who still needs to really find those secondaries and you're probably not going to get the same level of discount, it fits the bill the same way. Whereas when I look at Witherspoon, it just is similar to the arsenal that they seem to really thrive off of. And when you have that, that I also think they're not deterred by a little bit of a funky delivery. If it seems like it's not disruptive. And I could see some teams maybe being a little bit worried about the way that Witherspoon kind of like, it's kind of a jerky arm action,

but it's it's not high effort. And he maintains his Velo deep into starts. But I think it really is that complete arsenal side of things where you have this big template here and you can kind of mold it however you want. And I feel like that's something that the Mariners have really thrived off. We talk about a Logan Evans, but you look at a lot of different arm. that either have developed a deeper bag of pitches or already had that and have kind of honed in on it even further and just going back to the arsenal. Like when you have that four seamer to set the tone, but then the cutter and a slider and the ability to differentiate those two pitches and the field of spin a curveball as well,

I think that's something that would be really appetizing. Whereas you look at, and again, some of these guys may be better arms when it's all sudden done. Maybe they just dominate off of vert and deception. But I look at a Liam Doyle. And I just don't know how much you can, you can. mold there. Like he might just be what he is. And maybe that is enough. And it probably will be. It's definitely going to be enough to be a good big league arm one way or another. But when you're

thinking about what's the most that we can get out of this guy, it's a low release, high carry fastball, high effort with Doyle. And it's a splitter off of that that's gross. But is there enough there? Like it's 63% fastball usage. Is that a guy that, you know, you can develop the same way? I feel like Witherspoon is as good of a template that you can build off of. Maybe, of course, Seth Hernandez could fit that bill because he's a high school arm. But I think Wether Spoon just fits that template of what the Mariners can really work with. So Arquette is someone that has been connected to the Marys quite a bit here. I mean, it's obvious because local kid went to Udub.

Now he's playing at Oregon State. And, you know, the thought is like he would be relatively close to the bigs as soon as you draft him. What do you think about that potential fit if that is the direction the mayor's take at three? It's one of those that like I think makes so much sense that, it won't happen. Like that's always the one where like you see it in all the mocks. It's like, oh, makes perfect sense. He fits.

It's the most clear pick at that spot. Probably you could say like best player available, whatever it may be. And then they end up undersplotting some other guy. But to that point, like, I think it's a great fit because yes, he can climb quickly. You've just seen the power uptick this year where the exit velocities are plus. I know it's metal bat. But like when you have a 90th percentile exit velocity of 106, you imagine that might degrade to 104, 103 in change. Like that's still going to be big league average. And you imagine he's going to get stronger.

He's six, five, two, twenty. So you know that he's going to get stronger and stronger in that regard in terms of just being able to get into it more consistently. And then the swing decisions are good. The contact rates have been better this year. And he seems to have just settled in over the last. He hit a bit of a dry spell and then has really gotten hot and settled in down the stretch here. And I think with a strong postseason, it might be hard to pass up on a local kid that you've probably seen a lot of that you can push through the minors quickly who can fit multiple spots too. Like you just want that bat. yes, he can play short, but like you can also fast track him in another position and move them to third or second or whatever it may be. And I know you say, oh, we have Emerson, we have Young. Great. Welcome that problem. I don't, I don't think people will, I don't think they're going to be drafting based on, you know, how many upper miners infielders they have.

And I think they'd welcome adding our Kett to the fold. Colby, anything else before we get out of here? Yeah. Real fast. Just mention local guys. I'm wondering Mason Pike, Xavier and I ends. I know it's impossible to know. now but do you think there's any possibility that one of those guys could be bought down to 35 and

they go local with that second pick go more of an upside if they go witherspoon at three and save a little bit of money do you think either of those guys make much sense in the in the late first or well comp round a pick nyan's if he has if he slips it could be one of those that like happens on draft night right because there's always players that slip a little bit more than you think and i've i've heard some say on nions that he could go you know in the middle of the first round i've heard some say that he could trend closer to 20 to 25. And so if he's at 23 and you just save the money and I'm sure when you do that, you know, teams have a few different players that they're maybe looking there. You make a call and say, hey, we'll give you that 18th pick money.

You can very easily buy a guy down, but maybe going into the draft, he's saying, nah, I'm going top 15. I'm not worried about that. And things end up happening, right? And you kind of can flip on a dime. So I wouldn't rule that out. And I think if you go with like the higher floor pitcher or just a guy that you have a high confidence interval and being able to turn into a big leaguer, that's a good shot to take on a buy down guy where like he might swing and miss, but he also, if he hits enough, I mean, the power upside is just tantalizing. And I think that's a good shot to take, especially with some of the just success that you've seen recently with Elas Montes, and maybe that's more of a testament to Montes, but I think maybe you start

to build some confidence that, you know, you can develop another power hitter. Tell us about what you got coming up on Just Baseball. Anything we should be on the lookout for? Yeah, well, we have the top 100 prospect update coming out on Tuesday. So very excited about that. Definitely a couple Mariners that will be moving up quite a bit. Cole Young, I don't think that'll be much of a surprise that he'll be climbing with the start that he's had this year. But several Mariners on the list, Sloan will be on there as well.

So definitely check that out and we'll be breaking it down on the call-up podcast and the Just Baseball show. And then our draft coverage as well, like I said, Tyler Jennings is doing an amazing job for us there and Jared Perkins. And I know we have another mock draft coming out soon and we're updating the, I think, top 300 draft prospects very soon. So I know Mariners fans are probably very excited with the bonus pool. You guys got rocking, like, come check it out and, you know, window shop a little bit. All right. Let me ask you this one thing before we get out of here.

You mentioned the bonus pool. I want to know how you're feeling about this. What do you think will ultimately end up being more valuable to the Mariners? Is it the quality of player they get going from 16? I think they were projected to pick to number three, or is it all the extra bonus pool money you get? What do you think is going to end up being more valuable of an asset to Seattle on draft night?

I think they'll tip their hand with that first selection, but I do ultimately think they go under slot for the reason of, hey, we've got this huge amount of money to play with. We'll see the Guardians, like the Guardians had the huge bonus pool last year, and they saved a good amount of money with Bazana still somehow, and they absolutely cleaned up

with some high school arms and things like that. I think in the aggregate, the Mariners will accumulate more value on the savings and the overslots of several other picks because it's not just going to be one guy they buy down, right? There's going to be a guy in the 10th round that maybe thought he wasn't getting drafted out of high school anymore at this point because his price tag was too high,

and maybe they can actually sign him away. And that happened with the Guardians. So I think ultimately, they will have more talent coming out of those subsequent picks. Aram, this was great. Thanks so much for your time. Really appreciate it. Awesome. Thanks for having me. All right. Well, that's going to do up for our show. Thank you again, to Arm for joining us. And thank you so much for joining us here on the Lockdown Marrars podcast.

For Colby Patnaud, I'm Tadigazales. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L-O-Nor-Score mirrors. You can follow me at C-Pat 11, that's CPAT-1-1. We're also on Blue Sky. You can follow me at TDG, Colby at MLB Colby and the show at Lockdown Mariners. You can also find us on Instagram and TikTok at Lockdown Marrars. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day and we'll see you next week. Peace. Thank you.