Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Mariners 'Still Interested' in Jorge Soler? How Would That Work?

Episode Date: January 8, 2024

It's Mailbag Monday! Ty and Colby answer your questions, including which position the Mariners should target next, if their reported continued interest in Jorge Soler makes sense, and more.Follow the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @TyDaneGonzalez | @CPat11Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!Jase MedicalEmpower yourself when you purchase a Jase Case, providing you with a personal supply of 5 antibiotics that treat 50+ infections. Get yours today at jasemedical.com and use code LOCKEDON to get $20 off your order. GametimeDownload the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDON for $20 off your first purchase.FanDuelScore early this NFL season with FanDuel, America’s Number One Sportsbook! Right now, NEW customers get ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY DOLLARS in BONUS BETS with any winning FIVE DOLLAR MONEYLINE BET! That’s A HUNDRED AND FIFTY BUCKS – if your team wins! Visit FanDuel.com/LOCKEDON to get started.FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

What's on your mind following the Mariners busy day this past Friday? I'll answer some of your questions coming up here on mailbag Monday. Colby, hit it. You are Locked on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day. Oh, Hoy, sailors. It is Monday, January 8th, 2024.

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as well as your social accounts is in the description of this episode it is mailbag monday the show where we answer your mariners questions let's see what you want to know max is going to kick us off here with a two-parter first if the ms are going to go after one one more bat, are they looking for infield or outfield help? Second, where would you say is the more likely route we use for that player, free agency or trade? Yeah, so according to Rosenthal in his update this morning, it looks like they would be the infield is where the mayors would prefer to add their bat.

I think they can't really afford to be that picky. So if the best bat that is available to them that they can acquire is an outfielder, I think you just got to, you know, bite that bullet and, and add that bat. So, but yeah, I think ideally it's an infielder because you kind of do have like one open bench spot right now. So in theory, if you can get a second or third baseman and, you know, kind of force a platoon between Urias and Rojas, it puts one of those guys on the bench on a daily basis, which is probably the best build for your ball club. So I think ideally they want it to be in the infield. I think it makes sense for it to be in the infield. I just don't think there's that many bats available that can play in the infield that make a ton of sense for Seattle.

So at the end of the day, you need the bat more than you need the specific position. So, you know, you get the best hitter you can. My belief is that the preference would be infield. And when you kind of look around at what's available in free agency in terms of infield bats, there are none, literally none. I mean, we're talking about Ahmed Rosario, we're talking about Adam Frazier, with Merrifield,

those are the kinds of players you're talking about. Let me know when we hit a 100 WRC plus guy. Yeah. Now maybe that is, now maybe that is what they're sniffing around, right? Maybe that's what they feel they want to add as like kind of an insurance policy for Euras or Rojas rather than like an actual legitimate 115,

ish WRC plus bat which again if you're going to get that guy you got to go on the trade market because they're not going to sign Matt Chapman that's the only player that I can think of on the market on the free agent market that is like that guy right or like at least

you're hoping that he's that guy right so a couple players that come to mind here Jorge Polanco is a very obvious answer to this because the twins have outright said they need to shed payroll he's the most obvious along with with Max Kepler, the most obvious solution to their problem on that front. But you're also not going to be the only bidder.

You know, obviously the twins don't have a ton of leverage, but you're not going to be the only bidder in that market, if that is a player that the Mariners are actually interested in. And I think they should be. You put Polanco at second. You're going to get, I feel pretty confident about Polanco giving you a 115 WRC plus, two-ish win season at second base. You can move Eureas and.

and Rojas over to third, which is where they profile better. And that's probably the most optimal look for your roster. The other guy is Willie Adamas. I don't know whether that would cost. He's making a pretty good chunk of change, though, with the brewers. The brewers haven't really sold off the way that I expected them to so far this offseason. We'll see if that maybe changes over the next few weeks. I'm not really sure what the brewers are doing right now specifically.

But Adamas, like, he's, like, optimally speaking, we've talked about Adomas in the past. He should probably be your shortstop. JP should probably be your second baseman, but that's ultimately up to JP. And I don't think JP would want to move off his shortstop, especially for a guy that's only, that only has one year in Adomis.

So Adomis is probably playing second or third for you. But those are really the two like impact bats that I can think of that would slot in at either third or second on the trade market. If you consider Adomis an impact bat. Right. You know, I mean, 30 home runs, but also sub 300 on base. Right.

Kind of a up in the air there. But yeah, there's just not a lot of guys, unfortunately. So you start listening off some of the possibilities, and it's really easy to write a script where Eureas and Rojas are just better than those guys. So it's a really tight, you know,

window, a really tight, you know, needle to thread for Jerry to put on that regard. I would, you know, barring health, Jeff McNeil is a guy who could make some sense.

I don't know if he can play the field this year, though. He did have elbow surgery. So you have to wait and see there. And then also going back down to San Francisco, J.D. Davis is a pretty interesting guy who's coming off of kind of a mediocre year, but traditionally has hit very well. And it's actually okay at third base, not terrible. Yeah. Greatly improved there last year. So there are a few guys, just not a ton and like it's not going to be like Jose Ramirez, right?

So you're not getting a star. So I think you just got to take the best bat you can get. I do think it's more likely than not going to be on the trade market if they are to acquire a impact in field bat. It's going to be on the trade market. This question comes from an anonymous asker. I've seen comments slash articles that the M's have had the best offseason of all the AOS teams before the Friday trades. What is your opinion on that assumption considering both acquisitions and departures for all the teams? Have the M's had the best offseason today?

they've had the busiest offseason today of all the ALS teams the ALS team like the ALS hasn't done really anything like the Astros signed Victor Carantini have the Angels done anything not that I know of not that I can't call maybe they signed a reliever or something the Rangers have presumably going to lose Jordan Montgomery. Am I missing anything there? maybe a bullpen arm like but nothing of like serious impact the angels have had something the rangers out of someone to the bullpen I believe I can remember who the A's traded for Abraham Toro

you know but yeah uh so now like does that necessarily equate to having the best soft season I don't know they've made a lot of moops right they have made a lot of moves right they have made a lot of moves but as evidenced by this show

quantity doesn't necessarily equal to quality speak for yourself so they have the the angels acquired Adam Coleric they traded Jaime Baria or lost him on a minor league deal

they acquired Willie Calhoun on a minor league deal they traded Max Stassie and David Fletcher for Evan White. How could we forget that? Right. Yep. Signed Jake Mariznick to a minor league deal. Luis Garcia to a one-year contract. Adam Simber to a one-year contract.

And Zach Plesack to a one-year contract. Right. Right. They got Plessa. So not a lot. Texas has lost Perez and Garber. They signed Diego Castillo to a minor league deal. They signed Austin Hedges to a one-year deal. Oh, no. They lost Austin Hedges. Sorry. they lost Chris Stratton. They signed Tyler Malley.

And Right. But Malley is not going to factor into their 2024 plans. No. No. So they've added Malley and Yates. Right. Yeah.

Then I think the Astros, all they've done is Guarantini. They lost Maldonado. So they basically swap those two guys out for one another. That's about it as far as I'm aware there. And then the A is who cares? Yeah. Who cares? We're going to be answering more of your questions in just a moment.

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And as a reminder, Lockdown has launched the first ever national sports 24-7 streaming channel on YouTube. Lockdown Sports Today is here for you 24-7 covering the top sports stories of the day with the local experts of Lockdown plus our national shows covering every league. Go to Lockdown. on sports today on YouTube and subscribe to the first ever national sports 24-7 streaming channel part of the locked on podcast network your team every day let's get back into your questions here on mailbag Monday Chad wants to know seeing talks about us still being interested in solare does having an elite rotation make it possible to go after guys that don't fit as well

defensively or is that not how this works wondering if the addition to our offense would be a net positive given how good a rotation is coolly I think run Run prevention is a team staff. So as good as the Mariners pitching is, it's also not a pitching staff that's going to strike out 18 guys a game, right? Like they're going to put the ball in play. And Team Mobile Park in particular, balls put in play need to be converted to outs. So because it's hard to score runs there.

So I wonder with a guy specifically like Soler, if you're just giving up as many runs as your. getting by signing him, which would make him a net zero. And, you know, plays that aren't made add to pitch count. They add to ERA. They add to high stress pitches. They lower innings, like not making plays that you should make. They have a snowball effect, right?

You face more hitters. Obviously, pitchers, you know, they have to throw more pitches. They get tired quicker, more stress on the bullpen, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. So run prevention is kind of a team statistic in a lot of ways. So I don't think that you can just completely say. like, oh, we had this great starting pitching staff in a pretty good bullpen, so we can just say screw defense. Like, no, no, you still have to play good D. So, um, Solare's continued like, or Seattle's continued interest in Soler reported continued

interest in Solair. Uh, I don't think makes any sense as the roster is constructed right now. Could it make sense? Sure. I just don't see how it gets there. Um, and I don't, I don't know if I trust Saler's bat enough to live. with the high probability of negative run prevention impact on the back end. Because if he's going to cost me, you know, 20 runs by being an everyday left fielder,

is he going to make that up over Luke Rayleigh or Dom Kahn's own or whoever the other left fielder is offensively? Maybe he might, but I think it'd be pretty close to a wash or even relative to like Tom Cam, Adam Deval whoever it is they're still in the mix for another like corner outfield type right right so yeah so there's a tricky one I just I don't want to forego defense particularly if I'm going to use Hanager and canzone and right field a ton like they're not very good I don't want to be I don't want two bad defenders flanking Julio as good as Julio is this this means one of two things right

so there's actually going to play a bit of outfield for you or Mitch Garber is going to play quite a bit of first space for you. Neither of those is a good idea. That comes with a lot of issues on its own as well. So I just like you can make it work in terms of just like putting the pieces in place

but in terms of it actually benefiting you in the end overall. Sure. The Phillies have made it work. The Phillies have made it work, right? but it's a it's a roster build that would that would make Jack Z. Chedoteer

for sure. I'll say that. Yeah. Of joy for sure. But I don't know if that's particularly the best fit for this ball. But because essentially it's a robbing Peter to pay ball. You're robbing your defense to extract as much offense as possible. Right. Which could work.

I mean. Which again, that might signal such a belief, such a great belief in your rotation that you can mask some of the defensive issues through your rotation. Sure. I just, I also think the signing of Salary in particular probably wipes out your,

your budget. I think you're done at that point, which means no pitching. Yeah. Yeah. So I don't, I don't see the fit unless you're trading Thai France, unless that's the goal. And even then Rayleigh's going to play first base. And so yeah, you take your second best defensive outfielder and you put the infield. Yeah, the money aspect is the other real key here.

I mean, you could definitely backload it in theory and use some of that money that you freed up in 2025 and 2026 with Ray Deal to help pay for Solair. Maybe you even, you know, do some Dodgers stuff where you defer some money and all that. Who knows? Maybe there's a possibility here where you can get Solera at like $12 million in 2024. for because like Tay Oscar's deal, right? Teasker's deal is essentially like 15, right? If you take out the $8.5 million in deferred money over the, you know,

decade in the 2030s. So you're kind of looking at like a $15 million a. If Salar's kind of working off of that, maybe you can get them to like 12 or even 10 in the first year. But I don't know. I just, I don't see a fit. Yeah,

I just, it just, it just, it feels like we're trying. trying to put a square peg into a roundhold here with with yeah with Salar which like if they get him awesome cool great we'll talk about it we'll talk about all the ways that they can make that work and all that and ultimately you're getting a great bad like the lineup gets better with before a Salar but sure is your roster overall better well or does your roster overall benefit from that yeah we'll cross that bridge if we ever get to it anyway let's move on got another question here

from David. David wants to know if the Mariners were to only add two new players this offseason, do you agree another infielder and reliever would make the most sense for depth? If you agree in free agency was the only option, what players should they target? I think that's what's most ideal. Like an ideal scenario would be that. But you kind of contradict yourself when you say you can only use free agency to get those guys. Because if I'm only allowed to use free agency, then no, I would say outfield and

relief pitcher is the best way or the best, you know, ideal way to get. get that. So, um, but in general, yes, I think an infielder and, and a reliever, a good reliever would be the route I would go. Um, again, if I'm only allowed to use free agency, was there a budget restriction on there? I can't remember. Um, I mean, I think we should work within the, the confines that have like 10 to 15 million. Well, yeah, because, all right, so, so Divish wrote an article, uh, I believe yesterday, uh, that the Mariners very well may have a hard cap for the entire season of $145 million. So Darren Gossler's spreadsheet is correct that they have,

that they basically have committed about $121 million. They have roughly $24 million to play with for the rest of the whole year. That includes the trade deadline and all that. That includes the deadline. And so I think at most you probably need to set aside like $8 to $10 million. But the other thing too with that is like that's also assuming that you're going to be competitive enough to add, to make trades, to add payroll at the deadline. They're going to be.

Um, so yeah, if I can all use free agency, I want to save four or five million bucks at least. Um, like Stevenson's probably like the guy that I'd go get, but he's probably going to cost 12ish million. So can I go get an infielder for three million? The, the, the other weird thing with that too, right? It's like the, the reliever market got off to such a hot start and guys were getting paid like, Craig Campbell got 13 mil from the Orioles and a couple other guys got paid like a million. You know, McGahn got a nice deal. Ronaldo Lopez got like $12 million a year.

Ronaldo Lopez got a nice deal. That's also because they, yeah, yeah, they think that he can start a little bit. But yeah, like, you know, Pierce Johnson, like, kicked off the off season with like eight per, you know. So, but then it's the reliever market has just come to kind of a screeching halt despite Josh Hader still being out there. Robert Stevenson still being out there. A couple of really nice arms are still available. And they just haven't found teams yet for one reason or the other.

So does Stevenson still even make, you know, $12 million per? I mean, if I had a guess probably, but I don't know. I don't know what the hangup is there. Yeah, you might be able to backload it also and options and all that stuff. So because of how thin the, you know, infield market is, I would prefer that they dump most of their money onto a guy like Stevenson and then go and get like geo or shell. if you want more of a balanced approach, I still like Jacob Junis. And then it's like, okay, if he costs five or six,

what do I spend the other seven, eight million dollars on? Like, is there out infielder out there that's worth that? Not really. There really isn't. I mean, like Tim Anderson, if you want to take a shot on the upside, maybe. But there's a lot of downside there too.

And, you know, Whitmerfield hasn't been a league average hitter for three years. but he, you know, does bring some athleticism and he could play the outfield also, which is a bonus. So I think if I'm doing like, based on what's available to me, because I can only use free agency, I would go top market with my relief pitcher, which would be Stevenson, and then I would just go and grab a Urchella type. Yeah. If you wanted to do more of a balance approach, I guess I would say like Junis and Merrifield would probably be my preference. But it's like you're picking.

I'd rather just maximize the value of the reliever. And then if I'm getting an infielder, it's like I'd rather have Polanco. Yeah. I mean, pick one of the bad infield bats that are out there. There's a ton of them. You know, Amad Rosario. But I think for me, like, like, if I had the trade market available to me, then I would probably prioritize like Polanco and then like Junis. I'd rather have that than Stevenson and O'Shella.

Yeah. If that makes sense. But yeah, just free agency, I'm spending most of that on the relief picture because that's where the value is. All right. We got some more of your questions coming up here in just a moment. But first,

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All right, let's get back into your questions here. Stockton wants to know which three players from the farm will most likely help this season. I think we kind of have to include Pallano-Baroa in this because he's barely pitched at the major league level. Still a prospect. So Pallano-Baroa. He has the highest upside of any reliever,

young reliever in the Mariners organization right now to be kind of that third high-leverage arm behind Matt Brash and Andres Munoz, which Rosenthal mentioned in his article today is something that the Marys are looking for. They're looking for another guy to help out there in the back end of the bullpen with Topa and Brash and Munoz.

So Baroa is definitely the first guy that I think of. I think there's a pretty decent shot that you can get Jose Caballero level production out of someone like Ryan Bliss at some point this year. And I think he's barely close-ish. close enough where, yeah, we could feasibly see him in like May. Tyler Locklear, I think, is going to get a shot at some point this season. I don't know when exactly that'll be, but I know that the Mariners hold him in a very high regard.

So there's three guys right there. I'll also throw in Zach DeLoch. I know he's probably going to get an opportunity at some point over the course of this upcoming season. He might even have a shot, you know, outside shot to make the opening day roster. that's just a you know a solid the upside there or the hope there is you know solid fourth outfielder left-handed hitting fourth outfielder fifth outfield type so and that can that can be useful right even if it's just for a couple weeks i mean we saw how useful cave marlow was when he went into god mode for two weeks so even if you just get that out of zach deloche that would be helpful depending on what your situation is so yes for three i gave you four is there anyone else that i didn't mention Colby. Yes, I wasn't paying attention. So I'm going to say, uh,

Ryan Bliss at some point, uh, Perlender Barrow, like you said, obviously, uh, is kind of the obvious one. Oh, so you were paying attention. Sure. I mean, like, I just assumed because that was so obvious. Right. Um, and then yeah, Deloche is, is probably a guy. He's on the 40 man.

So that gives him a, uh, a huge leg up, uh, in that regard. Uh, one name I'd throw out there is kind of like could be a, a sneaky open at in the middle of the year. Jimmy Joyce is kind of making some waves. But yeah, it's not going to be a great year where, or at least on paper, it's not going to be a great year where like these prospects are going to come up and save you, quote unquote, if something goes wrong. Right. You're just not quite there yet.

Next year is the year where you could start to see Cole Young and Harry Ford. And, you know, some of the bigger names, Tyler Locker, they might make a debut this year, but I wouldn't say that you should, you know, count on them to come up and help. Right. Yeah. For me, it's Marlowe. It's Deloche. It's Bliss.

It's Barroa. And then maybe Jimmy Joyce, somebody like that, I could come up and help you. But, you know, we talk about all those guys. And yet when the Mariners really needed it last year, who was it that stepped up? It was Jose Cabiero of all people. So you never really know who's going to do it. But I feel like it's Baroa, Bliss, Deloach, Loclear, like one of those. Marlowe technically.

I think Marlow graduate prospect status. Not too sure. He was close, but either way, it'll be one of those guys. It doesn't feel like you got 150. I think he got 100 at least though, so he might have. But yeah, and then, you know, there's obviously like the very outside shot that Cole Young just has an insane year. And he just kind of forces the mayor in his hand at some point in like August. But again, we'll, we'll.

cross that bridge if we ever get to it. Next question here from Anonymous. What makes an injury prone player an injury prone player? I know some players get injured way more than others, but why is that? Injuries are accidents. So what makes them more frequent in some players? Is it a level of caution or something more?

It could be a conditioning issue, right? It could be an overworking of oneself. There's a lot of things that it could be on that front. But then there's also guys that just experienced a ton of freak injuries like Mitch Hanigar, right? Gets hit in the face, gets hit in the, you know, like a lot of stuff has happened to Mitch Hanigar. A lot of injuries have occurred with things that have been completely out of

Hanager's control. But he's still technically an injury prone player because he keeps on getting hurt. It just keeps on happening, whether it's his fault or not. Or there's like Thai France, right? Who like, like, he crowds the plate. He's going to get hit by pitches. And that significantly increases your chances of, getting hurt. Right. And as we've seen over the last few years,

Thai France has at one point or another gotten hurt. Yep. Uh, yeah, you know, a lot of it is, most of it is bad luck, I think, uh, but there are guys who constantly have, you know, like soft tissue hamstring and, and, you know, uh, all that stuff, back issues. A lot of that could be just, you know, uh, how they work out like their, their routines and all that stuff, uh, because, you know, baseball in general is just a very like, the merit, we say it all the time, it's a marathon, not a sprint. So, um, if you're not conditioned properly and it's such a unique sport because there's movements that you make in baseball, you don't make in any other sport. So, uh, I think most of it is just about bad luck. Uh, but, you know,

like you said with guys like Thai francy crowds the plate. So he's going to get hit more. That's just how Anthony Rizzo crowds the plate. He's going to get hit more. And if you get hit with a lot of baseballs eventually, you know, you're going to catch one off the wrist or the knuckle or the thumb or whatever, and that's going to hurt you. So it's different for every player. I would say most of the time, an injury prone player, it's just about bad luck. Sometimes it's conditioning, like how they work out and they're not doing a baseball specific type of workout routine. But mostly it's bad luck and it's, you know, it's bad luck and it's just how you play the game sometimes. You play the game a little more recklessly. You're going to run into water. balls and stuff like that. You're going to get hurt more. So, uh, I would say, if you're very aggressive, if you're going to like slide into first and stuff like that, like yeah, you, that's the risk you run. Yeah. So. And that kind of ties into the whole like Thai France batting stance thing, right? Like him crowding the plate. It's just like, over the plate. Yeah. It's, it's a choice that he makes to give him an advantage. Right. Right.

And he's probably not ever going to change that. So yeah, to deal with getting hit by more pitches. So, uh, mostly bad luck. But there is sometimes, it's an offshoot of the way you designed your you know how you play the game yeah last question of the day comes from jason assuming health who is our opening day starting pitcher did kirby earn that does spring training have a big impact on that decision uh no spring training does not have an impact on that it's usually it's usually seniority i mean we've seen that in the past with like felix even towards the you know tail end of felix's career where he was not good.

He would still get the opening day nod. It's going to be Castillo. Yeah, it's going to be Castillo. Castillo is the vet in the rotation. He was the opening day started last year. He is, I mean, you ask anyone who's the best pitcher in the mayor's rotation. I think a lot are going to say that's Luis Castillo.

I think there's definitely debate on that front. But like, I think a lot of people will just, their first thought will be Luis Castillo. It just makes a lot of sense for it to be Luis. Yeah, it's not like Gilbert and Kirby were so much better than Castillo that they've earned. earned that over Luis. It'll be Luis.

I mean, he was a top five Sy Young vote finisher, you know, vote getter. It's going to be Luis Gilbert, Kirby, in some order, but Luis will be number one. All right. That's going to do it for our show. Thank you so much for joining us here on the Lockdown Marrars podcast for Colby PetNode. I'm Tadian Gonzalez.

Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at L0 underscore Mariners. You can follow me at Ty Dane Gonzalez and Colby at C-Pat-11. You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode. Thank you again for making us your first listen. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day, and we'll see you next time. Peace.