Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Ray Day + What's Next For the Mariners?

Episode Date: December 1, 2021

Hosts Ty Dane Gonzalez and Colby Patnode break down the Robbie Ray signing and discuss whether or not his 2021 season is repeatable. Plus, the duo look ahead at what's to come and whether or not the Mariners could land Kris Bryant, Trevor Story or Chris Taylor.Be sure to follow or subscribe to Locked On Mariners wherever you prefer your podcasts! For questions and other inquiries, email: [e-mail] the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @danegnzlz | @CPat11For more of Ty and Colby, check out their Patreon: patreon.com/controlthezone/BetOnline AGThere is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Howdy, folks. This is Taday Gonzalez. Host of Lockdown Mariners here. Wanted to jump on real quick before we start our show. Just to warn you that today's episode, there were a bit of technical issues upon listening back to the audio file. There's some weird cuts, some weird sounds in my audio file. I really, really apologize for that. I tried to edit it as best as possible to make it as cohesive as possible. but there is some weird little jumps and cuts in there.

So I do apologize for the inconvenience and how annoying that might sound. But nevertheless, we had a ton of fun recording this episode talking about Robbie Ray and what's to come for the Mariners this off season. So enjoy the show. You are Locked on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day. Welcome to Lockdown.

Mariner's your home for daily Seattle Mariners news and analysis. Thank you so much for making us your first listen of the day. We are free and available on all platforms. And today is Tuesday, November 30th, 2021. I am your host, Tadayin Gonzalez. As always by my co-host, Colby Patnode. Follow us on Twitter at L-O underscore Mariners. You can follow me at Dane Gonzalez.

It's D-N-Z-L-Z and Colby at C-P-E-E-T-1-1. Be sure to also check out our Patreon, where we talk about the Mariners even more and also to some non-baseball talk twice a week. and if you want to hear more free agency talk, visit patreon.com forward slash control the zone for more information. On today's episode of Lockdown Mariners, however, we'll be breaking down the signing of Robbie Ray.

What are the Mariners getting in the raining AL-Sight? Young Award winner. We're also going to be talking about what's next for the Mariners ahead of the impending lockout. And who knows, maybe something will break during the show. And we have to call it audible just like we did yesterday when the Ray News came down. And if you like what you hear,

give the show a follow or subscribe, wherever you're listening to this. We greatly appreciate it. So Colby, you know, we had to quickly back to the news yesterday, but now that we've had some time to decompress here and take a step back and analyze the deal as a whole, how are we feeling? Just as good as yesterday. Why wouldn't you be feeling that good? You know, it appears that the deal is as expected. It's five years, $115 million, $23 million a year. Full no trade clause for the first two years and break and opt out after three. It just seems like a great deal for the Seattle Mariners and a pretty good deal for Robbie Ray as well, especially when you consider that, you know, we thought they were willing to go 20, 21, 22 a year on Kevin Gossman for five years to get Robbie Ray, who.

I would say is better, but is at the very least in the same tier as Gossmann on just a little bit more guaranteed money is a steal. And, you know, it sounds like we should expect an official announcement at any moment, really. And a press conference tomorrow is what it sounds like. So we'll see. Hopefully there's no snags, but I would feel pretty good about this crossing the finish line. it's a deal that you really can't complain about if you're a rational mariner fan. Yeah, it's a really strong deal. I mean, you look at just the player that they're getting, the compensation, the length of the deal for a guy that's coming off of a Sy Young Award.

And obviously, this is really the first year that he's truly popped. But even then, you know, I didn't really think that they were going to be in the market for the developer pitcher. I was pretty surprised to hear them in the market for Kevin Gossman and then to, see the Ray deal come pretty much out of nowhere, was pretty stunning for me personally. But you look at this deal, I mean, it's very reasonable for, you know, what the situation really is with Ray, which is, again, a guy that has always had swing and miss stuff,

but has struggled with the command, struggle with walks historically. He gave up a ton of home runs in 2020. But came back in 2021, figured things out mechanically, and ended up winning a Sy Young Award. But still, that's one year of production. And so that has to kind of be viewed realistically here. And I felt like it was.

I feel like that's very reflected, very much reflected in this deal. What is Ray add to this team in general? And what is the kind of statement the Mariners just made by signing him? Yeah, you know, it's funny. Ray's only done this once, but it's not like it was just a fluke of happenstance. There were substantial changes made by Robbie Ray and his delivery in his mechanics. So it's not like it just happened to be a year where everything clicked for him. He made substantial changes and they appeared to have paid off.

So that gives me a little bit more hope that these are maybe not 100% repeatable, but that what we saw from Robbie Ray in 2021 is mostly who he's going to be going forward. I don't think he's an ace. I would struggle to even call him a number one at this stage, but he's a very strong number two. And I think you should expect that. If you're a mariner, that's low three ERA, lots of strikeouts.

He's going to give you six innings every time out. He's kind of similar to James Paxton when Paxton was at his best and healthy. You know, just throws hard, got a nasty breaking ball, mixes in some other pitches, but it's mostly basketball slider. and for Paxx it was fastball, cutter or slider, depending on who you asked, and the occasional knuckle curve. So they're actually very similar in terms of style.

So if you're looking for a Mariners comp, it's think about James Paxson in 2018 at his very best. And that's pretty much who Robbie Ray is. As for what it does, certainly sends a message to the rest of the American League and to the rest of the free agents out there. the Mariners are very serious about this. They've added an All-Star and Robbie Ray, interestingly enough.

So, yeah, that's a pretty good start. It sends a message to the rest of the league that the Mariners are serious. They're willing to spend money. And hey, you know, they're willing to throw out the playbook from the past where depoto would never offer things like no trade clauses or opt-outs, and Robbie Ray got both. So I think it shows a willingness to be flexible on depotos part, a willingness to spend money on the Mariners ownership part. And, you know, that's reflected based on the names we're still hearing being connected to the Mariners

and still feeling like they're probably going to get one of those bigger names left on the market still. Very, very exciting time to be a Mariners fan right now. A lot of fun rumors swirling about. And the radio, I mean, is just, it's really, really, really excited. And you and I both when we learned of the news during recording, just absolutely kind of lost it. It was just a fantastic outcome here that neither one of us really expected. But hey, I mean, that's where we are right now. And it's a great deal for the Mariners on all accounts, really, for everything that we listed.

We're going to talk more about Ray because we are, like I said, we're incredibly stoked about this deal. in just a moment. But real quick, I want to remind you this episode of Lockdown Mariners is not only brought to you by betonline.ag, but also direct TV. BetOnline has you covered all year long

with more props, odds, and lines than ever before as football season continues the march to the playoffs. Bet Online remains your number one spot for all the sports action this season. Head to our new updated desktop or mobile website to sign up today and receive your 50% welcome bonus

on your first deposit. Just use our promo code locked on That's L-O-C-K-E-D-O-N to receive your bonus. From basketball, football, NHL, boxing, and UFC right to your favorite Vegas casino games, don't wait to take advantage of all the amazing offers available for the 2021 season. Bet Online is the fastest and easiest way to bet on all your favorite sports. Bet Online, where the game starts. Does this sound familiar?

You got one device that lets you catch the game live, another that lets you stream your favorite shows, you're watching sports highlights on your phone, and you've got your neighbor's best friends logging for the good stuff. Well, I want to tell you about a simple way to get all that entertainment you love without the hassle and a great way to finally get your TV together. It's called DirecTV stream and it brings your live TV and on-demand favorites together like never before so you can watch your favorite sports, movies and shows all in one place. That means no more juggling remotes and no need to buy another device ever again. In the best part, there's no annual contract. So get rid of the clutter and the confusion and get your TV together with DirecTV stream.

You can learn more at directtiv.com. that's direct tv.com compatible device required content varies by package you're listening to locked on mariners thank you again for making us your first listen of the day just like you do three day we greatly appreciate the support let's continue talking about robbie ray here because it's it's ray day here on locked on mariners colby you talked a little bit about his repertoire uh fastball slider guy for the most part opponents hit 222 uh in slug 431 off of of his fastball last year. 173 and a 320

slugging percentage off of the slider. He mostly used the curveball and the change up against righties, of course, as a lefty. What did you, now that you've had some more time to look into him and look into the year just had, now that he's a member of the Mariners,

obviously knowing that there were some mechanical changes and all that stuff. Have you noticed a difference or have you at least learned of what the differences might be from definitely made some mechanical changes. I think there's a change in his setup. It's interesting. The changes to me weren't obvious.

I did try and look at some of this. They weren't obvious to me. But again, I'm not, I'm not, you know, a trained pitching coach. So it's, there were a lot of, there's a lot of reports that he got a little bit more athletic. He got a little bit more, a little bit loose, a little bit looser. with his lower half. And it sounds like a lot of this is... What?

Not with his pants. No. Certainly not. No, but... Certainly not. But, no, it sounds like a lot of this really happened with his lower half. It was... It sounds like, again, like most pitching, it came from the ground up, right?

If your lower half's not in sync, then the rest of it really doesn't matter. So it sounds like there was quite a bit of work that went into just making sure that his lower half was stable and that he could repeat his delivery. You know, more basically he had a steadier delivery is what I'm trying to say. It was just repeatable and easier. And it worked. So knowing what we know about earnest pitching development, both at the minor league and major league levels, they've been able to raise the floors and ceilings of a lot of guys under the Jerry DePoto regime with Scott Service and Pete Woodworth and all these guys. Do you think there's another step that they could help Robbie Ray take to sustain this level of production?

Do you believe them to be able to do something like that? I don't think they're going to want to try. You know, it's kind of the classic if it's not broke, don't fix it. And, you know, we've seen the Mariners be able to help guys in the past, but those guys were broken. I mean, if you want to be, you know, real honest about it, you look at the Austin Adams, you look at the Paul Seawald, you look at, you know, you even look at guys like Chris Flexen, those guys were broke. and the Mariners fix them or convinced them that they knew what the fix was. Or in Chris Flexen's case, he kind of fixed himself. But the Mariners did help as the year went on.

So, yeah, if it's not broke, don't fix it. And Robbie Ray right now is not broken. So just let him do his thing. So do they maybe have an idea here or there? Maybe. But I bet they just kind of let it work itself out. I think you have to trust Robbie Ray in his track record. And the last thing you want to do is take Ray, who's in a good place and just kind of, all right, let's start over here.

Let's let's add this or let's take this away. It just doesn't make a lot of sense for the team to do that. So looking at this rotation, I mean, you know, just one through five, well, really, they only have four guys right now. They still got to fill one of the openings that was vacated by Kikuchi and Anderson. but 1 through 4 right now. You know, obviously, Ray is the clear-cut best pitcher in that rotation. But what do you think just his presence does for this rotation in general?

It certainly raises the floor of the rotation and the ceiling. You know, but I think it pushes everybody back down a spot. So you're getting more, you're getting closer to where guys should be in a standard rotation. Marco gets pushed down to two. He's probably a low-in three at best. You know, flexing gets pushed down to the three as of now. He's probably a four. Gilbert, you know, certainly could be a two or even a one someday.

But right now, you probably want to miss your five. And it sounds like Seattle is going to add another starter. Probably a pretty decent one too. So hopefully it's not the Tyler Anderson's of the world, which, I mean, it's fine. but you still want some middle of the rotation type of impact there. Like for them they aim higher. Right. And it's just one of those things where it's,

you don't want to have a real number five in your starting rotation. I mean, obviously you need a guy who pitches out of the fifth slot, but you want that guy to be like a number four or a three even. And, you know, signing Robbie Ray makes that a lot more realistic because Ray, I feel pretty good about calling Ray a two right now. So if he's a two, Flex and Marco, they're both probably fours and Gilbert, kind of the wild card right now. Certainly has, you know, number two upside, maybe even number one upside. So it raises the floor.

It also raises the ceiling. And depending on who the fifth starter ends up being, it could very well, both could very well be that the Mariners have built themselves a, playoff caliber rotation and by that I don't mean just oh well maybe they sneak in as a wild card and I mean if they get into the playoffs they could do some legitimate damage

if you know again if they go get somebody like Montas or Chris Bassett or Sean Mania or Sunny Gray they're gonna in a three game series if they can throw you know Ray Montas and Marco

or Gilbert that's going to be a rotation that can win you those games. And I think that's important. So if the arbitration projections on Adam Frazier, which is $7.5 million are accurate. And the Ray deal is just straight up $23 million a year. Then the Mariners have committed $30.5 million for 2022 alone

with these two deals that they made. which pretty much gets them back to where they were at the end of the season now with all the free agents that have left, etc. Kyle Seeger, pretty big chunk of that, of course. Obviously, they're still in on the big names with, you know, in terms of the infield, Chris Taylor, Chris Bryant, Trevor Story, etc. Would it surprise you if they made another significant addition via free agency at starting pitcher? No. Who would you like to see them go after? It's a little different with the starting pitcher qualifier

because there's really only one guy left. It's Marcus Strowman. Everybody below that, I mean, Kershaw, but that's not happening. So just forget about him. So everybody below Strowman, I would classify as kind of all in the same tier. I mean, Alex Cobb has gone now. Carlos Redona. is still out there, right?

Yeah, but it's crazy to me. We haven't heard anything about Rodon. Absolutely nothing. I believe the Mets were like to him yesterday, two days ago. I saw a tweet about him and Kikuchi

together. I think it was the Mets. Because of course, okay, well, yeah, I mean, I've still heard more about Kikuchi than I have Carlos Rodon. And it sounds like, and this is probably just me reading between the T-League,

here, but it sounds like there are, there's a lot of concern about Rodon's shoulder. He missed a big chunk of the season last year with a shoulder issue. And when he came back, he was mostly 92, 93 with the fastball after spending most of the year 97 to 99. And then he was able to ramp it up for the playoffs in his, in his one outing and get back up to 99. But, you know, it's, it's not good when you miss time with a shoulder injury and you come back and your fastball is 6, 7, 8 miles per hour lower than it was.

And I guess you could say it was just him working his way back, but it doesn't seem like Major League teams agree with that because if they thought that, they probably would have, he probably would have a job by now. I mean, he carries that kind of upside. So I just, I would be super concerned with Carlos Rodon on anything more than a one or two year deal. just because that shoulder, it seems like it's legitimately scaring teams away

because like he's got nothing right now, nothing working right now. So let's talk about what's next. Again, the Mariners are pretty heavily involved in the markets of Chris Bryant, Trevor Story, and Chris Taylor. I've heard all those three guys. I just consistently linked to them over the last few days. Colby, I'm just going to ask you this right now, straight up. Who do you prefer?

Between Bryant, Taylor, and Story. I think Bryant's the best fit. I think Story probably carries the most upside. And I think Taylor's probably the most underrated. I mean, I saw you run the poll and Taylor had like 1% out of 150 votes. I get it. Yeah, I ran a poll today, and it's still ongoing. And if you're listening to this, you can vote on it until tomorrow at L.O. underscore Mariners.

Right now, at the time of this recording, it has exactly 500 votes. And Chris Bryan is leading with 65.4% of the vote. Trevor's story has 32.6% of the vote. Chris Taylor has 2% of the vote, which is, like you said, pretty surprising here because Taylor honestly might make the most sense just given the comments that Jerry DePoto has made about versatility and everything along those lines.

Plus he can play a little bit of center field they frankly need right now and there aren't many options on that front. So for me personally I would probably go with story here just because of the upside and you figure it out later if you can play second base

if you can play third base, all that stuff, whatever. But I'd be happy with any of these guys really. I mean these are three really good ballplayers. Obviously, Brian and Story are probably in a higher tier than Taylor, but Taylor is a very good baseball player still. Yeah, he's also going to be

the cheapest, which I know people love to say, you know, that's not a good reason to sign somebody, and it's not unless it's to help you sign somebody else. You know what I mean? Like, if we saw this morning, Hobby Buy has got six years

$140 million. I would not feel comfortable giving that to Trevor Story, and I'm not all that comfortable giving that to Chris Bryant. So, I mean, if you're talking about, well, is, I mean, is Chris Taylor going to get six and 140? No, absolutely not. He's not getting $100 million. I'd be shocked if he did. So is the difference between Story and Bryant's and Chris Taylor literally twice the money? Because there's a chance that Taylor only gets like four and 60. I think he's going to get four. between 4 and 60 and 4 and 80.

And if you're telling me I can have that guy, or I can pay, you know, $160 million, $140 million to Trevor Story or Chris Bryant. I'd rather take Taylor and then probably go spend that money. Like basically what it comes down to is this, really. Would you rather have Chris Bryant or Trevor Story and, or sorry, would you rather have Chris Bryant or Trevor Story by themselves or Chris Taylor and Michael Confort? toe.

I'm probably latter honestly because I mean you have needs that you have more needs to fill than just third base or second base or whatever that's going to be

with Story or Bryant and we've talked about this at length with both of these guys in the buildup to this off season and now that we know that the Mariners are heavily involved in their markets I still feel the same exact way

now does that mean that if I mean even if they give out a contract like the ones that you and I are both uncomfortable giving. I mean, I'm still going to be excited that they got the player, right? Chris Bryant or Trevor Story. But, I mean, you just, you look at the, the way that this roster is right now, how it's constructed right now, just more holes. And if Brian or story ends up eating up most of your money or and basically inhibits you

from doing other things, but whereas Taylor opens up the possibility. of adding a Conforto or maybe adding a Stroman or someone like that. I'm probably taking Taylor because I think the combination of those two guys of Taylor plus Conforto or Taylor plus Stroman or whatever, probably got to be more valuable at the end of the day than Story alone or Brian alone. At least there's a shot. I would bet pretty heavily on that. Yeah.

I mean, like, what is Chris Bryant a safe bet to be? probably a four-win player. Feel pretty good about that. Story probably roughly the same. Well, Taylor by himself is probably a two-and-a-half-one player. Yeah. So, yeah, so it's like, okay, so let's say you're very optimistic and you say, you know, Bryant's a five-win player.

Okay, well, Michael Conforto is probably a two-and-half one player. Chris Taylor's probably at least a two-and-half one player. so I get the same five wins but now I feel two holes in my lineup instead of one Yeah, and then you can still address third base, right? Because I mean, like, I don't know if Adam Fraser would be your third basement. I don't know if Chris Taylor would be your third basement, whatever, but like you could go trade for Matt Chapman at that point.

And then at that point, Matt Chapman probably makes better sense than he did initially. Because he's probably what you're second that you got. So that's fine. third best bat, that's fine. Yeah. Again, it's not ideal, but what's the offensive contract that you absolutely believe the Mariners

should have signed? The offensive player. There hasn't been one. Eduardo Ascabar. I said often. Escobar, yeah, that's about what we had them at. But if you're going after Chris Bryant,

if you're going after, you know, Matt Chapman, who Ryan Divish has said the Mariners are interested in. And you want to take that shot rather than commit the money right away to Escobar. I get it. So. Right. Yeah, I just, I look at it and I go, well, you're not going to give like there, no, you're not going to convince me that you would be, you would have been happy.

Not you, Thai, but people. Give the Mariners a given Hobby Baez six and one 40. Like, come on. That, that's a ridiculous contract to give to Hobby Baez. and giving seven years to Marcus Simeon, get out of here. So that's really been it. There's been a few smaller signs. The Yon-Gaum's contract, I suppose, is something the Mariners could have done.

But like, are you broken up about it? No. So, yeah, to me, there's still plenty of time. And there's plenty of choices and opportunities. And again, people seem to be ignoring the trade route right now, which I get it because free agency is going hot and heavy. right now, but Seattle's still going to trade.

They're going to make trade. And Americans still have many bullets, many bullets to fire. You could argue they haven't even fired any yet. Like, Kerr and Rosier are both fine. Like, I like both of them,

but they're lottery tickets. I mean, those are, I mean, those are like 22, like caliber. Like, those aren't,

those aren't anything. Those are pop. Those are BBs. that you fired, you still have your bullets. And this metaphor is making me very uncomfortable. But you still have a lot of a lot of firepower for which to go make these big trades. And I would expect that they do do some of that. You might have to wait until February the way things are going.

But I would still expect them to make a significant trade to acquire a fixture in either their lineup or their rotation. I still think that's coming. So, well, it's fun to talk about Bryant and Story and Taylor and Stroman. Right. And I think maybe they might get one of those guys. Don't forget about the trade market because it's out there and it's going to play a pretty big role, I think. But we'll see.

Yeah, I think so too. Like, I think they're going to get, honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if they ended up getting their best piece of the offseason and that's including Ray via trade. I think there's a non-zero. Yeah. Agreed. Yeah.

So it's going to be interesting And of course Jerry Depoto is going to be active in the trade market Are you kidding? But now he also has money to spend See, this was what we were talking about And the buildup to the soft season Jerry Depoto now has freedom to do whatever the hell he wants He's got all this ammunition

For lack of a better term In the farm system And has all this money Theoretically freed up And now he's used some of it to go get the raining a LSI young winter. He has used the, you know, a couple of lockets in this farm system and, you know, a projected seven and a half million dollars to get an all-star player.

Like that's like that, that, that's might not even be, you know, the best of it, which is really fun to think about. It's very fun to think about. And, uh, maybe we'll have some more fun. over the next 24 hours or so. Lockout doesn't, isn't expected to begin until tomorrow night at midnight.

So, still plenty of time for things to happen. It seems like Chris Taylor is going to be signing before Wednesday. So we might get a resolution on that. Seems like Chris Brian is becoming more open to the idea of signing before the deadline as well, or before the lockout as well. There's apparently he's in talks with the Rockies,

which is really strange. So we'll see how that happens. And of course, story has been a big topic of conversation over the last few days. Seam like he was the Rangers fallback plan if they didn't land Corey Seeger. So now I wonder if he decides to maybe wait it out,

reevaluate a situation, or take advantage of where the market is right now, especially after seeing the bias deal. So I feel like we're going to get a resolution on some of these players, probably by the time that you're listening to this or a little bit after. because there isn't a whole lot of time left,

but, you know, still plenty of time for things to come together. So, hey, maybe tomorrow we're talking about a new Mariners player, but that's going to do it for our show for today. Thank you so much for joining us here on Lockdown Mariners.

Unfortunately, we didn't call an audible during the show. We didn't have to. So nothing happened while we were recording. But maybe something will happen soon. For Colby Patnode, I'm Tiding Gonzalez. Be sure to give us a follow.

on Twitter at L-O-U-U-U-N-S-R-N-E. You can follow me at Dan Gonzalez, the C-A-N-Z-E, G-N-Z-L-Z, and Colby at E-P-A-T-E-P-A-T-1-1. You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode. Thank you again for making Lockdown Mariners, your first listen of the day every day. Be sure to join us tomorrow as we talk to Jason Churchill, A Prospect Insider in the Baseball Things podcast, about the off-season and what the Mariners have done up to this point.

But in the meantime, make your second listen of the day, Lockdown Betts, your daily one-stop. shop for all your gambling needs. Lockdown is hosted by your boy Q with expert analysis and insight from Lee Sterling. Just like us, their show is free and available wherever you get your podcasts. Have yourself a beautiful baseball

day and we'll see you tomorrow.