Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - Reacting to Experts Saying THESE Free Agents Will Be Mariners

Episode Date: November 11, 2022

MLB free agency is officially underway and the guys at MLB Trade Rumors have made their predictions on which teams will sign each of their Top 50 free agents. Colby and Ty react to whom they have penciled into the Mariners organization. Do they believe the team can land one of the big 4 shortstops? Also, Julio Rodriguez earned himself a Silver Slugger Award yesterday. Is he a lock for AL Rookie of the Year?Be sure to follow or subscribe to Locked On Mariners wherever you prefer your podcasts! For questions and other inquiries, email: [e-mail] the show on Twitter: @LO_Mariners | @danegnzlz | @CPat11For more of Ty and Colby, check out their Patreon: patreon.com/controlthezone/BetOnlineBetOnline.net has you covered this season with more props, odds and lines than ever before. BetOnline – Where The Game Starts! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Julio Rodriguez has officially won the Silver Slugger and MLB trade rumors has put out their predictions for the top 50 free agents on the market. Let's talk about it. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners. Your daily Seattle Mariners podcast. Part of the Locked-on podcast network, your team every day. It is Friday, November 11, 2022. This is Tiding Gonzalez and Colby Pat node for the Lockdown Mariners podcast.

Brought to you by Bet Online. Bet Online has you covered all season long with more props, odds, and lines than ever be. before. Bet Online is where the game starts. Thank you so much for making us your first. Listen, subscribe, like, and turn on alerts if you're watching on YouTube or subscribe and leave a five-star review on your preferred podcast platform if you like what you hear. And if you want to hear from us even more, please consider signing up for our Patreon on the link as well as our social accounts is in the description below. Colby, before we get into our show today, let's remind folks about the giveaway that we're doing right now. We got less than a month to go before this

giveaway ends. Tell the folks what they could win. baseball cards and stuff. So yeah, next up on our little check sheet here is we got to get to 4,500 YouTube subscribers and we'll give away an autographed Taylor Tremel card number 83 out of 99. And then after that, it's kind of a combo one. It's 4,500 YouTube subs and 3,000 on Twitter. we'll give away this cool Jared Kellnick card. It is 60 out of number 199.

It is autographed. I think it's the best looking card of the one we're given away personally. So that's out there. And then probably the biggest one. Oh, whatever. If we get to 5,000 subs on YouTube, it doesn't matter how many followers we have on Twitter for this particular card. But we'll give away an autographed Cow Raleigh card.

autographed Cow Raleigh Rookie card, I guess I should say. That's for 5,000 subs. And then, you know, there's a big one. If we overtake Locked-on Astros is the number one, number one MLB podcast on YouTube in the Lockdown Network. I'll give away this really cool numbered autograph, Mike Cameron card, which really don't want to give away. but you guys aren't really making me sweat it that much.

So I'm feeling pretty good that we're going to keep that card. At this rate, y'all aren't even going to get the Taylor Tremel, which, you know, is for about 220, 250, somewhere in that range, away from even giving that away. So I'm going to have a bunch of free cards. Well, not free, but I'm going to get to keep a bunch of my cards. They're going to be awesome.

And you guys will just lose. Right now, the only thing you guys are getting is a Taylor Dollar card. Just saying it takes like 10 seconds hit a subscribe button. So yeah, it's true. Maybe you don't want the Cowlory card. I will enjoy it. You have less than a month, December 8th, I think. Yeah, December 8th, the day after the winter meeting's in.

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This podcast is also in video form if you did not know that. All right. So our first topic of the day, Julio Rodriguez is taking home some hardware. And this is probably not the last award that he will win this off season. But it's a pretty big one, Colby, Silver Slugger. He was one of the three American League outfielders to win the Silver Slugger along with Mike Trout and of course, Aaron Judge. And this makes a ton of sense because Julio was third amongst all qualified American League outfielders in WRC Plus this year at 146. He slashed 284, 345, 509.

He was worth 5.3F4. He had 28 home runs, 25 stolen bases, and struck out 25.9% of the time. while walking 7.1% of the time as a 21-year-old rookie. So congratulations to Julio Rodriguez. Colby, what's your thoughts on Julio winning this award? Probably bodes pretty well for his chance to win rookie at the year, which is the only award I care about because it's the only award that comes with real consequence

for the team of the player that wins it. If he wins rookie of the year, the Mariners are going to get an additional draft pick. Sounds like it'll be essentially an additional first round pick. You know, right after the end of round, between round one and competitive balance round A is what it sounds like, which I believe is going to be 29th overall. So with that 29th overall pick comes the bonus money that goes along with it, which is, I believe, an extra about $2 million to throw into the the bonus pool, which if you guys don't know, you only have X amount of money to spend on the first 10 rounds of the draft. And if you go over that by more than 5%, then you start losing first round draft picks in the future. So the more money you have, more picks you have,

you know, the more creative you can get in your draft, blah, blah, blah. So that's the one that really matters. I believe that one is going to be given out on Monday or Tuesday of next week. We should know then, Julio is one of the three finalists there. I would think, again, him winning this award is a pretty good precursor. It was a really great class this year for rookies. You know, in most years, Stephen Kwan would have ran away with it. Adley Ruchman would have ran away with it. George Kirby would have ran away with it.

Jeremy Pena would have ran away with it. But as it stands right now, all those guys are going to finish behind Julio. And that's just how good the rookie class was. So well earned for the Silver Slugger. Like I said, to me, it just bodes pretty well for the fact that he's going to win, um, rookie of the year. Uh,

and I think Julio's probably about to enter, I mean, the stage where he's just going to win awards just because he's Julio Rodriguez. You know, like it's, right. Yeah. It's not so much that he has,

hasn't earned them. But once you get a cup, like, right? Like, once you like win a gold glove, right? You tend to win more because, oh, well, he's won one before. So I feel like Julio is just going to start collecting silver. sluggers despite having like good but not great years you know what i mean like they're saying be like oh yeah but a tullio so yeah maybe there'll be a year where he's like eighth and w rc plus amongst all outfields yeah and he still wins but he still gets it yeah yeah um and yeah i i think

this bodes well for his uh rookie of the year uh case as well and also you know while ultimately the um winner of that is decided upon by the writers i think it also you know the major League Baseball wants to prove that their new system works, right? That if you can, you know, if you don't service time a guy, you bring him right up on the roster right away and he ends up winning rookie of the year. Like, you know, they've made all these changes with the new CBA to prevent service time manipulation and all that. So I think they also kind of make an example out of Julio. Right. And Adley is is not that guy this year. Kwan would be Adley is not. If Adley wins rookie of the year, the Orioles get nothing because he didn't make the opening day roster.

And that's kind of the, you can still win rookie of the year, but you're not eligible for the draft pick unless you make the opening day roster. And they spend, I think it's 116 days or something in the big leagues. So Julio and Kwan are the only two that are eligible for that. Like even if George Kirby won, the Mariners would not get the draft pick. So it's kind of a cool new system, a cool new incentive. and Julio is probably going to have given the Mariners that honor, that reward for the first time. And it also sounds like the Mariners are probably still going to get a competitive round B pick as well. So they might end up with two extra draft picks in next year's draft, which again, all about bonus pool.

And, you know, building this thing, continuing to build this thing. So yeah, Silver Slugger, fantastic. Congrats to Julio. But the big one is early next week. I think on the 14th, which would be Monday. So we should, I don't know what time they'll announce that. That's typically around 4 o'clock. So we probably won't be talking about it on Monday, but maybe Tuesday.

We'll be talking about the American League Rookie of the year, Julio Rodriguez. Well, congratulations to Julio Rodriguez once again, an incredible season for him. And soon to be the American League rookie of the year, I believe. So we're going to switch gears and look at MLB trade rumors as predictions for the top 50 free agents on the market. A few of their writers pick the Mariners for some of those free agents. So we're going to go over those deals and react to them here on the Lockdown Mariners podcast. But real quick, a reminder of this episode of Lockdown Mariners is brought to you by BetOnline. Betonline.net is your number one source for sports, betting info, stats, news, and analysis.

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So MLB trade rumors has put out their collective predictions for the top 50 free agents on the market like they always do. They are also running a contest if you want to enter that where you send in your own free agent predictions. And I think the closest who gets to it wins a prize. But yeah, so they've handed out predictions. This is Steve Adams, Tim Dierks, Anthony Frankos, and Dara McDonald's predictions for the top 50 free agents on the market. And so let's go through some of these that have the Mariners predicted to land these guys. The first one on the list is Andrew Bogarts. They have Bogarts landing a seven-year $189 million deal.

And McDonald predicts the Mariners for Zanders. So what's your reaction to a... seven-year $189 million contract for Zander. Feeling pretty good because that's basically what we came up with. That's kind of what we thought he could get. And I'm totally okay with that. That is well within the range of respectability. It is, what, $27 million a year for Zander.

I think that's right in line with what he's worth. And yeah, I feel like, you know, you kind of look at what other predictions were made for the short stops. You know, you have eight and 268 for Turner. And for Cray, it's nine and 288. Like if I can, those are my options or I can get Zander for 7 and 189. I'm picking Zander over both of the other guys. So, yeah, I think that's about what it's going to be. I could see maybe he pushes $200 million.

But I think it's probably going to be in that seven to eight years. years and I think it's going to be between 180 and 210. So I think that's pretty good estimate and we've talked about Zander's fit in Seattle. It makes a lot of sense and he's also a guy who probably would be more open to moving to second base right now

than any of the other options. So yeah I think that's a pretty good call. I would be quite happy if the Mariners got Zander for 7 and 189. Yeah, that's a really good deal. You and I in trying to project a deal

for Xander came to seven years 196. Yeah. So pretty close. So yeah, I would be thrilled if the Mariners were able to land Zander Bogart's at that deal, especially when you compare it to Trey Turner, Carlos Correa, Dansby Swanson,

the other contracts that they have listed here. So the next one on the list, you have to go down to number 19. That's Jose Abrayu. And Tim Dirks has the Mariners signing Jose Abraeu to a two-year $40 million deal. So 20 million AAS. So 20 million A.A.V. for the older Jose O'Breou, who plays first base and D.H. exclusively. What do you think about

that deal for the Mariners? Not a fan. Brayu is a really good player still. You can definitely hit. But you have Thai France. So essentially what you're doing is you're signing a Brayu to be an everyday DH. I mean, first base, he'll play some first base too. But that's not what the Mariners want to do. They want to have the B.H. kind of be for the fourth outfielder who's not playing in that day. Abreu, there's definitely a point where you just need offensive production. And so it doesn't matter if it's not the perfect fit positionally. But I don't think it's, I don't think a brave is going to be on the market long enough for the Mariners to get to that point.

If that makes sense, where they just like, you know, we need offense, period. I think, I think two and 40 is is pretty aggressive as well. again for a 36-year-old who's just first base. So I would not be a huge fan of that. If Brady was a really good player, he would certainly hit, you know, probably third in this Mariners lineup. He would be an upgrade to the offense, but he's not a very good fit roster-wise.

And that money, I think, can be spent in better and more creative ways. So I'm not a huge fan of that call. Again, you know, if we go into spring training and Jose Brau's a mariner, yeah, I'm not going to be mad. But I'm just not a huge fan of that. fit in that call. Because I think the only way he's a mariner is if we get into January and Seattle kind of struck out on the short stops and, you know, they got a couple pretty good outfielders,

but no real impact bats. And they're just like, oh, you know, screw it. Like, let's go give a Brayu one and 16. And he can be the DH. And that's how we're going to get the offense that we want. Like that, I could see that scenario. I don't see two years for Bray. It was kind of a jumping off point for me anyways.

Yeah, and 20 million a year for a guy that is essentially your Carlos Santana replacement. Yeah. Or your Thai France replacement in France is your Santana replacement. It's not a great use of resources there. If you can get a bray you for like 15 million a year, I'm a little bit more on board. It's just 20 million. That's such a huge part of your available payroll. I mean, you know, Jerry DePoto has already talked about how.

how, you know, giving $20 million to Mitch Hanager was going to eat a lot of their available payroll. So, you know, we don't know exactly how much money DePoto and Hollander have to work with right now, but it would seem like Brayu would cut into a significant portion of that. And that just doesn't seem like a great use of resources. But again, you know, like Colby said, if you get to a point in the off season where Breu is still available and you haven't really added that impact bat, you haven't been able to add that impact bad, then it starts to make a bit more sense, even though that roster-wise, it's still a little bit of a conundrum where you're locking up DH'd for either France or Brayu,

where they're basically kind of rotating in and out of there and the other one plays first base. So I'm not a huge fan either. But also, like you said, I wouldn't complain if Jose Abraeu is a Seattle Mariner in 2023. It's a really good player. He's a guy that's going to hit, you know, potentially 300 plus and, you know, give you 20. 30 home runs. I'm not complaining about that at all. Next up on the list is just one spot down.

Mitch Hanager. This one's a little bit silly. Both Adams and Dierks have have the Mariners landing Mitch Hanigar at three years, $39 million. Yeah. The level of disrespect shown to Jerry Depoto

to think that he would give Mitch Hanigur three fully guaranteed years. Get out of here with your nonsense. That's stupid. Any team that gives Mitch Hanigar three guaranteed years, they're stupid. Just straight up, they're stupid. So, yeah. No, Mitch Hanager coming back, fine.

That's fine. Like, that's fine. 13 million AAV sounds a little bit larger than we're expecting. I think it's going to be like 8 to 10 or 11, to be honest with you. but 13's in the ballpark fine whatever sure but for three guaranteed years I just I don't think that any team is going to give him that

with the injury history with the lack of production when he has been able to get on the field and people are not going to pay for they're not going to pay for 2021 Mitch Hanigar either right like no what have you done for me lately and what Mitch Hanager has done lately does not warrant three guaranteed years that's just the unfortunate reality of the situation

so yeah this one gets a thumbs down from me as well all right so at number 25 this one is really interesting JD Martinez and Anthony here has the Mariners land of JD Martinez at two years 30 million dollars so a very similar situation to Josea Brayu for five million dollars less AAV do you feel the exact same about this as you do with a brayu are the feelings a little bit different on that what are you thinking it's pretty similar to abray you just don't really see the fit of a full-time dh on this roster right now and that's what martinez is i mean i know he can stand out in left field but you just went an entire season using a guy who can literally just stand in left field did you feel great about it because i didn't so Yeah, you know, he's, Martinez is still a pretty good hitter, but it was a, it was a bit of a down year for him.

You know, it felt like we're starting to see kind of the decline of JD. But again, he's still a very solid hitter. I think C.P.Z wise, he fits pretty well in the Mariners lineup. But he's just kind of seems like he's an older player who's kind of in the decline. He can't play in the outfield really at all. you're not, you're not giving two years to a guy who can't help you defensively. It just doesn't make a lot of sense. And not for a guy who's coming off of a down year.

Wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. I wouldn't hate it. But, it just, like to me, like if you're going to settle for a full-time DH, why not just go give Nelson Cruz $9 million. And be like,

here you go, Nelson. Right. You're the DH. Like, you already know that guy fits in your, in your clubhouse. you know that guy's going to fit in the city. You know, J.D. better than Nelson Cruz at the stage of his career.

Yeah, of course he is. But what's the point? Like, if it's one year for Nelson Cruz or two years for J.D. Martinez, and I have to pick one of those two options, I'm picking the one year for Nelson Cruz because it's an easier contract to get out from under. So I just don't see a fit here, to be perfectly honest with you. Up next on the list, Franco has the Mariners sign a favorite of mine. line left-handed reliever Andrew Chafin to a two-year $18 million contract.

So 9 million A.AV for Chafin, who's coming off of a really, really good season in Detroit, 57 in the third innings pitch, 10-5-2Ks per 9, 298 walks per 9, 283 ERA, 306 FIP. And obviously, he's, you know, rocking the fro and the handlebar mustache. It's just a great look. so for a reliever. You've got to be a little unhinged to be a reliever in Major League Baseball, and Andrew Chaffin embodies that and then some fully. So what do you think about two years, $18 million for someone like Andrew Chafin?

I'm good. I don't want to give any reliever $9 million to be quite honest. It's a lot. Especially since, you know, Jerry is so good at not giving relievers $9 million and getting like $12 million worth of value out of them. And also, let's be real about it when he has given relievers money. It hasn't particularly worked out. Yeah, it's typically his worst moves have been when he's decided to pay a reliever.

Just so you guys are aware, how much is $9 million, really? Well, Andres Munoz is going to make $6 million over the next three years total. So, yeah, $9 million is a lot for a guy. And chafing to me, he's not a high leverage guy. He's, you know, a solid lefty. he's fine and and you know if you're in a situation where it's you know yordawn and uh and bregman and tucker and like the seventh fine you can use chafin and chafin's good against right he's too i'm not saying he's a luky or anything but like hey you know who else you could use eric swanson

you know how much eric swanson's going to cost you a million five like i just nine million dollars who might cost you only like four million dollars yeah yeah like this just feels again like oh the the Mariners have to have a lefty, so Chafin's pretty good. Just give him the standard good reliever contract, which is like $8 to $10 million a year. It just feels forced. And I just, whatever. I'm not opposed to Chafin. And even at that number, I'm like, okay, whatever.

But like, again, the Mariners have a budget. They can't just go writing checks for $9 million to guys who are going to give them 50 innings and just do that repeatedly over and over again. I just trust Jerry to find somebody who can do what Chafin does, but for like $3 million instead of nine. So I'm not a not a huge fan on that one. Yeah, to me, this is a deal that you do after you've done your heavy lifting. Yeah, luxury. Your heavy lifting. Like let's say the Mariners, they've signed their shortstop or they've, you know, signed two big outfielders and they've acquired a middle infielder via trade or what have you.

Right. At that point, once the heavy lifting is done and they've spent the money that they need to in order to fill out their biggest needs, then yeah, if they want to go paid $9 million a year to Andrew Tafen, cool, great. I'm all about that. But like Colby said, this team has proven time and time again, and specifically Jerry DePoto and crew have proven time and time again the ability to find relievers, high leverage relievers and grab them out of just thin air, basically. you know and so i don't need to go spend nine million dollars on a guy when i know that my pitching development system works and that my front office has a really good eye for pitching talent that is just kind of on the fringes of the market uh all right so lastly the last deal on this list is uh it gives me a good little uh chuckle uh steve uh steve uh steve adam

here has the Mariners signing jean sagura to a two-year 18 million dollar contract clearly steve has does not keep up with things that go on in the the Mariners clubhouse or new stories that have recently come out about jean segura and the mariners organization where sagura has talked about a member of the mariners organization going on social media and tweeting basically racist things and that was a reason that he felt, he reportedly felt uncomfortable being in the Mariners organization there towards the end. There was obviously the fight

between him and Dee Gordon that was reported. Gene Seguer, clearly after what he said in that story, does not want to come back to Seattle. No. That's the end of the story. So this is a non-starter for me. Yeah. Like, in Steve's defense,

if you ignore all of that, Segura does make a lot of sense for the Mariners. He did towards the top of the order. He's a pretty good second baseman. He's relatively cheap. Like, yeah, like, Cigura's a good fit. It doesn't strike out. Like, yeah, he checks a lot of the boxes for the Mariners.

Unfortunately, he hates the organization's guts. And I don't think the Mariners are too thrilled with him either. So, yeah, that's pretty much the end of it. So, like, if you ignore all the real stuff that matters, Ciguro is a great fit. but we can't so it's not going to work out like like hypatite like just in a just like let's live in this goofy reality here if jean sigura did sign that deal with the mariners you'd be pretty happy about that right you're like yeah yeah i mean yeah that's it's a good player at a good price yeah sure but again you have to factor in the reality of the situation

and that reality means that jean siga jean sigura goes from a great fit for the mariners to somebody who's not even on their board more than likely. So, hey, you know, if Segura is the starting second basement next year for some odd reason, I'll be happy. Like, cool. That's solid. But I also, it'll take me a few months to, like, actually believe that that transpired in our reality. So, yeah, it's a good fit, but you're just missing kind of the biggest red flag of any free agent.

Yeah, yeah, it's just the, I forget which article it was, but Sigura talked about his time in Seattle and made some claims that I'm not necessarily saying if they're true or not, but, you know. And so that just from his perspective, at least it seems like he's not at all interested in never coming back to Seattle. It would be pretty similar to like if the Mariners rehired Dr. Lorena Martin, right? like right it just not that they're not qualified not you know fits or whatever but it's like it just it's no like you close the door on some people in some situations you just close it forever and you don't open it ever again uh jean sigura falls into that category uh yeah i mean i don't know maybe kevin mather being fired was literally the only thing that needed to happen for sigura to be happy but like yeah maybe maybe the yeah maybe the the member of the organization that

Seguera was referring to in that article no longer works in the organization. And, you know, maybe it was Kevin Mather himself, right? Based on Kevin, based on what we know Kevin Mather will say in front of people, it's kind of believable. So maybe that's it. It's true. It's true.

I kind of doubt it. So I wish Gene luck, but he's not going to be a Seattle Mariner. Yeah. Gene's fun. Gene's a great player. Gene's a fun guy to have around the clubhouse, at least, you know, if your name's not a de 14.

Yeah, for fans, for fans. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And obviously, you know, it would be a bit of a headache. Yeah, we don't know everything. Obviously, we're not the ones that were in the clubhouse or anything like that. So, you know, I'm not going to claim anything or speak anything on Gene Seguro's name. But yeah, just from the outside looking at it, it just doesn't seem like that relationship is going to be mended anytime soon. And it is worth noting, again, that basically, I mean, not basically, there are zero holdovers from the previous locker room. When Gene Seguer left, there are zero players still playing that were on that team as well, for the Mariners at least. Sure. Yeah, I mean, maybe, like, it's possible. I'll give Steve that it's possible that maybe the fences can be mended, but, you know, Scott's service is still there.

The entire coaching staff pretty much is still there. Jaredupoto's still there. Yeah. So, yeah. So even if the person that, so even if the person that Sigura had issue with, uh, is gone, it's possible that he's, still holds ill will towards service or depoto for any role that they may have played in that situation as well who knows right we're speculating we're podcasting our socks off right now

but yeah i mean i'll be happy to be wrong but it just it doesn't seem likely yeah yeah uh it'd be nice though uh as a fallback option if you don't land one of the uh the top middle infielders uh sigura would be a nice fallback plan there all right that's going to do it for our show thank you so much for joining us here on the Lockdown Mariners podcast. For Colby Pat Node, I'm Tadang Gonzalez. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at LO underscore Mariners. You can follow me at Dane Gonzalez. S, D-A-N-Z-L-Z, and Colby at C-Pat 11.

That's C-PAT-1-1. You can also find all that stuff in the description of this episode. And thank you again for making us your first listen. For your next listen, check out the Lockdown Sports Today podcast, featuring the biggest stories of the day, plus instant reactions, big game recaps, and the take of the day. It's available on the Odyssey app, YouTube, and wherever you get your podcast just like us.

And with that, have yourself a beautiful baseball day and a beautiful baseball weekend. And we'll see you on Monday. Peace.