Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - REST VS. RUST: Why Benefits of First-Round Bye Outweigh Momentum Concerns For Seattle Mariners

Starting point is 00:00:00 Could the first round by hurt the Mariners momentum? I'll answer that and more coming up here on mailbag Monday. Colby, hit it. You are Locked-on Mariners, your daily Seattle Mariners podcast, part of the Locked-on podcast network, your team every day. Ahoy, Sailors, it is Monday, September 22nd, 2025. This is Tadding Azales and Colby Patnaud for the Lockdown Merris Podcasts podcast, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day.

Starting point is 00:00:33 This episode is brought to you by five-hour energy. Enough with boring flavorless caffeine. It's time to give your caffeine a flavor upgrade with five hour energy shots. Go to five hour energy.com or Amazon today. And as always, if you want to hear from me and Colby even more and help support the show, you can check out our Patreon. All you have to do to check that out is click the link in the description of this episode. We're going to open up the mailbag like we do here every Monday and answer some of your

Starting point is 00:00:57 Mary's questions. But before we do, we have official word for Major League Baseball that the Maris can officially clinch tomorrow night. Let's the playoffs, that is. All they need is a win over the Colorado Rockies and a win by the Yankees over the Chicago White Sox, which is very doable. So a very shortened explanation of how that works is mathematically the Red Sox, the Guardians, the Tigers, because the Guardians play the Tigers and the Tigers play the Red Sox, they all cannot get to 88 wins, which the Maras are only one win away from. And obviously they have the tiebreaker over all three of those teams. The only thing that could throw a wrench in that potentially is if the Yankees were involved in a tie as well because the Marlins don't have the tiebreaker over the Yankees.

Starting point is 00:01:43 But if the Yankees win tomorrow against the White Sox or at any point over the course of these final six games, then that part doesn't matter. So the Marys can get into the postseason tomorrow night. And again, that is very doable because the Marins are facing the worst team in all of baseball and the Yankees are facing the worst team in the American League. Yep, it's a pretty clear cut. Two good teams beat two bad teams tomorrow, and the Mariners will clinch their second playoff birth in the last 25 years. And yeah, it's pretty cut and dry. It's a little complicated.

Starting point is 00:02:18 The math was a little complicated to work out. But essentially, once the Yankees reach 89 wins, there can't be a tie no matter what happens between you and them for a specific playoff seed. And yeah, you would be, you would beat any of the other teams, the Astros even as well. You have a tiebreaker over everybody who has less wins than you. So, yeah, you're in great shape. And yeah, we thought maybe Wednesday was the earliest.

Starting point is 00:02:48 But no, it turns out because of the end of the year's schedule and because of the way the tiebreakers were laid out, marriage can clinch tomorrow and they have a really good shot to do so. Yeah. So the Yankees and the White Sox start playing. tomorrow at 4 o'clock Pacific. So want to keep an eye on that. And you'll know by the time that the Marers game starts or roughly around that time, if the Marys are going to be able to clench or not.

Starting point is 00:03:11 But yeah, if you want to try and see the boys clenched in person, might want to get tickets for tomorrow night. All right. Let's get into your questions. Rich wants to know with the potential of a first round buy for the Marys, how worried should we be about the prospect of a loss and momentum? I mean, what's the alternative?

Starting point is 00:03:31 you purposely lose games to try and play on the Tuesday after the season ends for no reason. Like, it is what it is. I mean, there's nothing you can really do about it. And, you know, frankly, I think Cal Raleigh could really use some time off without, you know, hurting the team. And obviously, there's a whole Brian Wu factor that has to be put in a player. And also your bullpen could use some rest. And, you know, Logan and George, they seem to pitch better with that extra day's rest. So you give them a week off, you know, you might feel better about that.

Starting point is 00:04:00 So, like, there's just no alternative here. Like, you have to go for it. You take the three games. And plus, you guarantee yourself at least two home playoff games by taking that by. And you only need to win then, what, seven games to get to the World Series at that point? Instead of having to win nine. It's essentially like winning a playoff series. So, you know, it's a fair question.

Starting point is 00:04:26 Obviously, the whole Rest versus Russ thing is a debate. that spans across sports in general. But, you know, I think in this particular case, baseball is such a grind. And with the team and where they're at, their best player being an everyday catcher and their best pitcher kind of, you know, not really sure how healthy he is. I think the pros far outweigh the cons. And let's be honest, if the Mariners lose in the ALDS, it's not going to be because they got four days off. It's just it's going to be because they got beat. So, yeah, I really don't think there's really much of a debate here.

Starting point is 00:05:04 You want to be the two-seed. It is the best thing that can happen to you. Also, the two-seed, you do get to play the winner of the three and the six. So there's a chance you're playing, you know, a team that had to use everything they had just to get into the playoffs and to win the first series. So there's real benefits there. There's just no alternative. Like, you're not going to intentionally lose games to try and be the three-seat. so that you can play a day after the regular season ends.

Starting point is 00:05:31 There's no reason to do that. So could it be a problem? Maybe, but it's kind of just one you have to deal with because the pros outweigh the cons, you know, buy a lot. You want the buy. It exposes you to one fewer opportunity to get eliminated. And, you know, in the ALDS, you only even have to win on the road in order to advance the ALCS.

Starting point is 00:05:54 And this team is amazing at home. And obviously, they just had a really good. good road trip and hopefully they've put their road woes behind them, especially the pitching staff. But you, you want that advantage, right? You won't be forced to have to win on the road, really, unless you have to play Toronto in the ALCS. At which point, you would only need one road win. Yeah. So, yeah, it just, it, again, it's a fair question.

Starting point is 00:06:27 I understand the concern about it, but it's a no-brainer. You have to go for the two, and you just have to take your chances. All right. Next question here from Jonathan. How do you prioritize rest this last week for several key guys while still aiming for the buy? What does the balance look like? I assume more Rayleigh, Ford, Young, and Revas, but should they wait till a buy is secured before resting guys? I imagine it's, I mean, there's six games left, depending on when they clinch.

Starting point is 00:06:57 If they, let's say hypothetically, they clinch by the end of the Rocky series, which is a possibility. I think you probably see Cal just DH three days in a row, especially if he is, you know, which he is, you know, still chasing 60 or 62 or whatever. There's a record on the line. They're going to give Cal as at bats. And that'll probably be as a DH though, which means, you know, Polo probably isn't going to play and that's fine. You can have Revos play. JP can have a little time off as well. Randy Rosanerana's played basically every game this year.

Starting point is 00:07:30 I'm sure they would like to get Randy a day off and Julio a day off. But if you do get that by week, there's really not a ton of incentive to do it because they're going to get four or five days off anyways right after the season end. So it's not like you have to bench, you know, three guys for three straight days. You don't. You just kind of play it by ear and all that. But yeah, I think you'll see a pretty standard lineup against the Rockies on Tuesday and Wednesday and then Thursday. you know, we'll kind of see where they're at. But I imagine they'll probably give Harry 4 to start finally at some point.

Starting point is 00:08:05 Maybe even two. Yeah, give him a couple of at-bats so you can maybe get that first big league hit. And, you know, because he's just been sitting here and he's lost a lot of time. I imagine Cole Young will actually get a few starts as well just to try and get him. They might have to make a decision on Young on a playoff roster or not. But imagine Cole Young will get some at-bats as well. well. So I think you'll see some young guys. Rayleigh will probably play left field a couple times in this six game stretch. I imagine Victor will play some center field once or twice in the

Starting point is 00:08:37 six game stretch. I mean, Julio might deach one of those days. But yeah, I think mostly what you're going to see is just the regular lineup until they clinch. And then after that, it's probably Calde deaching for three straight days. And then Garber and Ford splitting the catching jobs. I imagine Julio gets some time off, you know, in the Dodgers series. Robles. as will play center and Rayleigh will play right or you might see Julio and Randy get a day off on the same day. But because you will probably have, as things set up right now, you would probably have four or five days off between the last game and the ALDS.

Starting point is 00:09:12 You don't necessarily have to force it because they're going to get plenty of rest. So it's kind of one of those things where, you know, if it was the three seed and you weren't going to get that time off, you probably want to try and get these guys a little bit more time in that last week, but because right now you're in good position to get those four or five days off anyways, you can be a little bit, a little bit less aggressive with getting guys out of the lineup, if that makes sense, while still giving them like a day here or there.

Starting point is 00:09:42 Well, you also want to try and put these guys in bubble wrap after you get everything locked up because, you know, you're not going to be playing for really anything in the daughter series of, you know, say you get everything locked up before that series starts or after game one of that series. but you don't want to bench for example Josh Naler for all three games against the Dodgers and then have him well and also and also you can't and you can't also bench everyone right no it's not possible right like guys I have 14 guys but we all remember what happened to Sam Haggary there in those what was it the second to last game or the last game you know before the playoffs like you obviously don't want to risk any sort of injury especially in what could be a meaningless game sure but there's only so much you can actually do to prevent that is the problem so like with the guys guy like Josh Naylor who's got the sore shoulder and whatnot.

Starting point is 00:10:28 You might see Luke Rayleigh play first base a couple times in the Dodgers series and stuff like that. But, you know, there's, it's not the NFL, right? You don't have a second string for every position. You just kind of have to wing it and move guys around to best suit your roster. You only have 14 position players. So you can only bench five starters a day. So, yeah, they'll do a little bit of everything, I think. But until they have that basically secured, I think they'll run out primarily.

Starting point is 00:10:55 their A lineup. All right, we will answer more of your questions here in just a moment, but first a reminder, this episode of the Locked-Ommarrows podcast is brought to you by Zipix and Five-Hour Energy. This episode of the Lockedom Airs podcast is brought to you by Zippix toothpicks. Whether you're looking for nicotine satisfaction or an energy boost, Zipix has you covered with their nicotine and caffeine-infused toothpicks. For nicotine users, Zipix provides a discrete way to satisfy cravings and the hand-to-mouth habit without vaping or smoking. Zipix can be a helpful tool as you work to reduce your dependence on vaping, available in six great flavors with two milligram and three milligram nicotine options.

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Starting point is 00:12:38 It's time to give your caffeine a flavor upgrade with five-hour energy shots. Get the favorites you love or be bold and try something new in store and online at five-hourenergy. com or Amazon today. And you're listening to the Locktime Mariners podcast for instant reactions following every Mariners game. Be sure to tune into the Mariner's postcast with Anderson Hurst and Christopher Crawford, available on both the Locked-on Marries YouTube and podcast feeds. Let's get back into your questions here on Mailbag Monday.

Starting point is 00:13:09 Cody wants to know, do we have a bullpen day in Brian Woo's spot or do we call up a Logan Evans in his place? I mean, it's also worth noting that, you know, Logan Evans is just now starting to pitch in games again after his little injury. And I think he's only thrown two innings, like Max, in an outing right now. So if it is Evans, you are going to have to pull up in it anyways. It's also worth noting that the mayors could simply skip that spot in the rotation if they so choose. I mean, Logan would still be pitching or sorry, George would still be pitching on normal rest if they just moved him up one spot.

Starting point is 00:13:49 So they have options here. Really their only option if they're not going to move guys. up, though, is some kind of bullpen day. There will be an opener. It might be Hancock. It might be Evans. But they don't have a stretched out guy on their 40-man right now. And I don't think they're going to want to DFA anybody this late into the year. They really don't need to because they have Legamina who has options.

Starting point is 00:14:13 So, yeah, I think it's probably a bullpen day. And it might be, you know, Legamina as the opener. And then Hancock as the bulk guy. And then maybe they call up Evans as, you know, for somebody else. or maybe it's for Legamina. And they just kind of tag team it. But it is worth noting. They can't skip that start if they so choose.

Starting point is 00:14:29 And if Thursday's game means something, if they haven't clinched the two by Thursday, they might just have George Kirby go on normal rest. It would still be four days rest for George Kirby. It just, he wouldn't get the extra day off, which would be nice. But, you know, again, you're trying to clinch a number two seed here and get the buy. So you got to do what you got to do. But yeah, I think if they don't do that, they almost have no choice but the bullpen because Logan Evans just isn't in a place right now where he can give you five or six

Starting point is 00:14:57 innings and I don't think Emerson Hancock is either. All right. Next question from Charlie is the current playoff bracket where it would be Cleveland or Detroit versus Seattle and Boston or New York versus Toronto, the ideal playoff scenario. Two seed seems better at this moment. I think either scenario works out fine for the marries because, again, you don't have to win a game on the road. So I'm not worried about the Fenway Yankee.

Starting point is 00:15:23 stadium element too too much because I just have to win three games at home to advance. And I'm not scared of anyone at T-Mobile Park. But yeah, I mean, like, yeah, if you ask me of the four teams who would I most prefer to face? Yeah, I would say that the guardians or the tigers are at the top of the list, especially with especially the tigers with, you know, how things are going for them right now. Yeah, I mean, like, look, any team in the playoffs is dangerous. any team in the playoffs can beat you three times, regardless of where you're playing the games. So there are no easy routes to the ALCS or anything like that.

Starting point is 00:16:02 But if I had to choose, probably Cleveland, Detroit, one of those two teams. I mean, Houston might be interesting. How healthy is Houston at that stage? I don't know. That would obviously be a big factor here. But if Houston doesn't have Yordon and they don't have Hater and we'll see what's going on with Pena, like, you know, they're probably the weakest roster in the American League at that point, in the playoffs at least.

Starting point is 00:16:29 So, yeah, there are a lot of ways you can go there. But I think, yeah, how it's set up right now would probably be, quote, unquote, ideal for the Mariners. But we know Cleveland's a tough matchup for them. We know that Detroit is fully capable of going on a run. They were the best team in baseball for, like, the first three months of the year. Like so obviously you have to face. scoobo at least once in that in that series maybe even twice so yeah everybody's a little bit threatening uh i think you feel good about going up you know going toe to toe with anybody uh but

Starting point is 00:17:03 yeah i think the way it's set up right now is probably the most again air quote ideal uh way to uh to go about it all right uh we got a couple more questions of yours to answer in just a moment but first a reminder this episode of the lockdown airs podcast is brought to you by neutrofole and monarch money. You've probably seen a million ads for hair growth products and thought, yeah, sure, like that actually works. And I don't blame you because there are so many products out there, and it is so hard to know which ones are actually going to do anything. That's why you should give Nutraful a closer look. Nutraful is the number one dermatologist's recommended hair growth supplement brand, trusted by over one and a half million people. And it's not just

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Starting point is 00:19:37 The American League and Major League Baseball as a whole has been so mid this year that some of these teams kind of falling off towards the end makes more sense to me than the Guardians and the Mariners just smoking everyone in their path. especially the Guardians. The Marys make more sense because the mayor is like they went out and added at the deadline. They have great pitching. They have a great lineup. You know, the Guardians lost their all world closer. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:20:03 Yeah. Lost their number three starter. Yeah. They literally released Carlos Santana to give him opportunities to find a playoff roster to be a part of. Yeah. And now they're just unbeatable. Like it's really is insane. And, um, yeah, like the Guardians is.

Starting point is 00:20:21 by far the most surprising thing more so than even the meritor's to me yeah that by far is the most surprising like the tigers falling off like yeah that is shocking but also again major league baseball as a whole has been pretty like almost every team has been painfully mediocre this year and uh you know to see a couple of teams kind of fall back to the pack doesn't surprise me that much frankly no i feel like i was kind of waiting for detroit to do that because like i i i I know how good they were last year at the end and how good they were for the first couple of months. But I don't know. I just never really looked at that roster and was like, oh, that's the best team in the American League.

Starting point is 00:21:01 Like it just, so I'm not really all that surprised. Boston, we know about their, their warts and whatnot. And obviously, Houston injuries really piled up on Houston, which is a nice excuse for them to use. But, you know, also they were painfully mediocre for about two or three months now. Like, it's not like it just has. happened over the last few days. And in a lot of ways, I think you could also say that the Astros overachieve this year.

Starting point is 00:21:28 Because I mean, look, they traded one of the best players in baseball. Yep. They lost another one of the best players in baseball for pretty much the entire year in Yordon Alvarez. And yet, you know, they got incredibly hot there for a couple of months and built enough of a buffer that, look, since the All-Star break, I'm pretty sure they're under 500. and they've been able to mostly survive that until the last week or so here

Starting point is 00:21:55 to stay in a playoff position and it's very possible here over the next six days that they get back into a playoff spot. Yeah, absolutely. I would say this. The most surprising thing that's happened in Major League Baseball this year, though, for me, is the Mets collapse. What we're watching the Mets do right now. They are not in a playoff position.

Starting point is 00:22:18 Yeah. Like, and with that roster and that talent, all the money they spend for them to be slowly choking away, a playoff spot is unbelievable. Because unlike Detroit, you look at that roster, like, yeah, this is a good roster. Like, this should be a playoff roster. We saw it first hand. We saw how dangerous they are first hand. Yeah. And it just, you know, it hasn't been.

Starting point is 00:22:44 So, yeah, I think the bigger surprise is, I mean, Cleveland is the biggest surprise in the positive for me. The biggest surprise in the negative would be the Mets. But like you said, the league in general has been really mediocre. And it's just been teams going on hot streaks and cold streaks. And there's just not a lot of teams are just playing consistently good baseball. There's three or four teams that are just playing consistently good baseball all year.

Starting point is 00:23:09 I would say the Phillies have been the most consistent team. Because even with the Brewers, the Brewers have had to go on like multiple like 14 game winning streak. Yeah, they've had two separate 14 game win. win streaks. Yeah. Yeah. So, but yeah, the Phillies have been consistently good.

Starting point is 00:23:23 Even the Dodgers had their, their moments where they were not that great. Right around the same time that the Maras were really going through it, the Dodgers were really going through it. The Cubs have been pretty solid all year. You know, just not, they just never really caught fire like the Brewers. The Yankees have, I mean, the Yankees will claim they went through some rough times, but they've been relatively consistently, like, in the, the same playoff position.

Starting point is 00:23:48 The Blue Jays. Immediately after the deadline where their bullpen and all their bullpen additions were just. Right. That was funny. And it was bad for like a week. But okay. Who cares? Yeah,

Starting point is 00:24:01 the Blue Jays have been pretty consistently good. So, yeah, but other than that, every team has kind of had these big months and these terrible months and they just kind of ebbed and flowed. And, you know,

Starting point is 00:24:12 it just is what it is. I mean, the Minnesota Twins had a 14 game win streak in April. Yeah. And they ended up selling at the deadline. So like, yeah, the league in general has just been so mediocre, so inconsistent that none of this is terribly surprising, with the exception to me of the Guardians who took steps to get actively worse at the deadline, much like the Tigers the year before. And they probably right now are the favorites to win that division, even though. The Guardian is almost, they almost traded Stephen Kwan at the deadline.

Starting point is 00:24:51 Yeah. Yeah. There was reports on the morning of the deadline that, yeah, we feel like Kwan's probably getting traded. And they didn't. And yeah. So it is really wild what's happened in Cleveland, not to undersell what's happening in Seattle right now. That's also crazy. But again, Seattle added in the deadline.

Starting point is 00:25:10 Yeah, it just makes more sense for Seattle. Like if you told me like these two teams are going to go or one of these teams. teams are going to go on a hot streak, which one are you taking to Seattle 10 times out of 10? Yeah. Yeah. So, yeah, I would say the Cleveland thing is the most surprising.

Starting point is 00:25:27 So I guess to answer your question, the winning streaks of the Mariners and guardians are the more surprising aspect of this playoff race. All right. Next question here from Joseph. With the Diamondbacks being one game behind, do you think they regret trading Gino and Naylor to us? No.

Starting point is 00:25:46 No? again it took an epic collapse yeah by the Mets for them to even be close to this position and if they can get in and they can sell tickets because they're close to making the playoffs which they've been able to do while also getting value for two players they weren't going to resign sounds like a win-win to me and oh by the way Zach Gallens rebuilt a ton of value they didn't trade him at the deadline and now they're probably going to be able to QO him and get draft picks for him as well.

Starting point is 00:26:20 So this worked out really well. I mean, I'm sure Diamondback fans would prefer to have them, but I don't think the front office really regrets it at all because, again, at the time they made those trades, they were dead. Like the N.O. Wildcard was basically, we knew who was going to make the playoffs in the National League. Even in light of the Locklear injury? Yeah, I don't really think they were trusting or they were counting on Locklear all that much.

Starting point is 00:26:45 but no, I really don't. I think fans might regret it because they're probably looking to be like, man, if we had those two guys, we'd probably be in the playoffs right now. But I think from a baseball ops department, they handled it perfectly. I think from ownership perspective, they're probably really happy with this too, because, again, they were able to save money by trading some veterans. And then they also managed to stay in the race somehow because the race kind of fell back to them. And maybe just maybe just big picture thinking here, teams will look at the Diamondbacks and be like, or the Tigers from the year before and be like, hey, you know, they sold at the deadline.

Starting point is 00:27:23 And they were still in a playoff race because kind of everybody's in a playoff race until, you know, early September at least. So, and this time they happen to go to late September. So I think, you know, the people who work for the Diamondbacks, I don't think they regret it at all. So what you're hoping is that maybe this incentivizes more teams to sell at the deadline? Yeah, be a little bit more like, okay, well, I mean, we could sell and still be okay. Like, especially like selling, selling rentals, selling short-term options where they can be like, look, I mean, it's not like we're trading Corby and Carroll or Cattell-Martay here. So, but could we trade this rental option even though we're not fully out of the playoff race right now? And yeah, maybe.

Starting point is 00:28:05 And for a team in Seattle, like Seattle, which is the only team we care about with the window therein, that movement. by, you know, or that idea that like, hey, we could sell and still compete a little bit here because everybody so men, that would actually really benefit Seattle as it did this year. Yeah. Yeah, because obviously, you know, the mayor is what is their most likely path to add talent to the trade market? So more teams are selling, then that's good for the mayor's as long as they're in a competitive spot. I mean, the Cubs and the Astros pulled off a huge trade and both of them were, you know, playoff teams for most of this year. the Cubs are and the Astros still could be. And, you know, they traded Kyle Tucker and they still competed.

Starting point is 00:28:47 And, you know, the Cubs traded their starting third basement and their best prospect. And even though Kyle Tucker hasn't been that good for a couple months now, they're still totally fine with that trade. So I do hope that, you know, just to be selfish and bring it back to Seattle, maybe the trade market thaws a little more as teams get more and more data that show like, hey, we can still try. trade these guys and compete and sell tickets, which we know is really the big driver of ownership, is to be competitive enough to sell tickets in August and September. Well, you could still trade those guys and still do that because all it takes is, you know, a handful of mediocre teams to get hot and cold at the same time and you're right back in it like Arizona is right now.

Starting point is 00:29:35 If I was Arizona, I would regret it. I would rather have the couple of months of Gino and Ailer than what I got back, especially in light of the locklear injury. Well, there you have it. That's going to do it for our show. Thank you so much for joining us here on the lockdown errors podcast. For Colby Patnode, I'm Tadangazales. Be sure.

Starting point is 00:29:50 Give us a follow on Twitter at L0 underscore Mariners. You can follow me at Tadine Gzalus. Colby at C-Pat 11. That's CPAT-1-1. We're also on Blue Sky. You can follow me at MLB Colby in the show at Lockdown Mariner's. You can also find us on Instagram at Lockdown Mariner's. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day and we'll see you next time.

Starting point is 00:30:07 Peace.

Locked On Mariners - Daily Podcast On the Seattle Mariners - REST VS. RUST: Why Benefits of First-Round Bye Outweigh Momentum Concerns For Seattle Mariners

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